At the gate - friday

[StarDust Bum]

BC - Sprint
October 27, 2015


Distance: 6 furlongs
Purse: $1.5 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, October 31st
Time: 2:50 p.m. EDT

The History

Dayjur was home free in 1990 before famously jumping a shadow at Belmont Park and allowing Safely Kept to become one of three fillies to win this. Thirty Slews won the 1992 running, introducing the world to a then unknown trainer by the name of Bob Baffert. Kona Gold ran in the Sprint five times, grabbing the brass ring just once in 2000. Midnight Lute won back to back races in 2007 and 2008, while 2011 Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle won the 2013 renewal with just one prep in over 18 months, giving Baffert four wins in the event.

Favorites: 7 for 31 (23%)
Shortest: $4.60 (Ellio, 1984)
Highest: $54.60 (Sheikh Albadou, 1991)
The champ is here? No. Unfortunately, Work All Week was retired recently due to injury.

The Best

Six-year-old gelding Private Zone is having his most productive year to date since being transferred earlier this year to Jorge Navarro.

After finishing second going a mile to Honor Code in the G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, Private Zone went gate-to-wire in the G2 Churchill Downs on the Derby undercard then finished second in the G1 Met Mile behind old rival Honor Code and Tonalist.

In his last two starts, Private Zone defeated overmatched foes impressively in the G3 Belmont Sprint Championship and blazed seven panels in 1:21 when last seen in the G1 Forego at Saratoga nine weeks ago.

One race before Private Zone’s popular tally in the Forego as the 8-5 favorite, a three-year-old named Runhappy was making his debut on racings’ grandest stage for little known trainer Maria Borell.

What followed was a smash-mouth, front running score at 11-1 in the G1 Kings Bishop, going seven furlongs approximately a half second faster than his older rival. Runhappy returned in the G3 Phoenix last out over this course to win by almost two lengths after breaking a bit slowly and having his saddle slip.

The Rest

Wild Dude stormed home to win the G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship last out, his second big tally of the year having got up in time three back in the G1 Bing Crosby. He’s four for six with two third place finishes overall at this distance and should get plenty of pace to close into for Jerry Hollendorfer.

Masochistic figured to play a big role in the sprint division this season when he won his first three this year, including the G2 Kona Gold and G1 Triple Bend in his first two for Ron Ellis. He’s disappointed in his last pair, however, when he was run down in the Bing Crosby as the 2-5 favorite then stopped badly in the stretch as the 3-5 pick in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship.

Salutos Amigos was beaten just three lengths when seventh in this last year then closed out last year with a four race win streak at this distance. He came flying late at Rock Fall after getting squeezed at the start but had to settle for place money when he fell a neck short in the G1 Vosburgh for David Jacobsen.

Jacobsen will also send out Stallwalkin’ Dude, who finished inches behind his stablemate in the Vosburgh. A winner of 6 of 14 this season, Jacobsen has turned this runner into a stakes caliber performer in just 14 months since he claimed him for $16K.

Holy Boss won four in a row earlier this year, including a pair of minor stakes and the G2 Amsterdam at Saratoga but could muster just a third place finish as the Kings Bishop favorite and fourth last out in the Phoenix for Steve Asmussen.

Kobe’s Back is just one for six this season but his victory did come over the course in the seven furlong, G3 Commonwealth in the springtime for Peter Eurton. It’s worth noting he’s broken poorly in his last three starts.

Limousine Liberal closed out a big exacta at 15-1 when second in the Kings Bishop then followed that up with a runner-up finish in the G3 Gallant Bob as the 4-5 chalk last out. In his first two starts, he won twice at this distance for Ben Colebrook.

Richard Baltas sends out California bred Big Macher in just his second start since finishing fifth in the G1 Golden Shaheen in Dubai. He won the Cal-bred Pirate’s Bounty at Del Mar last out on Labor Day and has done his best work on synthetics, where he won the G1 Bing Crosby last season.

The speedy Favorite Tale has won two of his last three, including the G2 Smile over Work All Week three back before tiring to third in the G1 Vanderbilt behind the ill-fated Rock Fall. He won a Pennsylvania bred allowance contest at Parx in his latest, a track where he is a perfect five for five for Guadalupe Preciado.

Alsvid won the G3 Count Fleet and G3 Aristides over Work All Week earlier this season but is winless in his last three for Chris Hartman, including an off-the-board finish in the Phoenix most recently.

Barbados won his first two starts of the season, including the G3 Hutcheson but is winless in four starts since missing five months. He was second last out in the Phoenix for Mike Tomlinson.

Ivan Fallunovalot has won three minor stakes at Oaklawn and Remington this year at the distance for W T Howard but will be making his G1 stakes debut.

The Strategy

I want nothing to do with Runhappy in here and will reluctantly use Private Zone but I think there is just too much speed for either to win. Look for someone from off the pace.

The Bomb

Ivan Fallunovalot has won 7 of 11 starts at the distance and should be the first to pounce on the speed at 25-1 or better.

[StarDust Bum]

BC - Juvenile
October 27, 2015


Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YO (c&g)
Date: Saturday, October 31st
Time: 4:10 p.m. EDT

The History

Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988. Unbridled’s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start. Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer’s winning streak in 2001. Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006. And of course, Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill. Last year, the Desormeaux brothers, trainer Keith and jockey Kent, teamed up with longshot Texas Red.

Favorites: 11 for 31 (35%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Chief’s Crown, 1984)
Highest: $63.20 (Vale of York, 2009)

The Best

Nyquist will look to stay undefeated for Doug O’Neill as he rides a four race win streak into the Juvenile. After breaking his maiden by a head, Nyquist returned from a two month layoff to rattle off scores in the G2 Best Pal by over five lengths and G1 Del Mar Futurity by almost four lengths before stretching out in the G1 Front Runner last out.

Nyquist made the lead on the far turn but did not kick away like he had in his prior two wins and actually brushed with runner-up Swipe, an incident that warranted a stewards’ inquiry that was eventually dismissed.

Brody’s Cause debuted on the turf but didn’t run a step at 3-1 and beat just two, finishing 25 lengths behind the winner.

Dale Romans switched him to dirt and he promptly won a maiden special weight event at Churchill at over 33-1 then came with an equally powerful run over more accomplished and seasoned foes in the local prep, the G1 Breeders’ Futurity over a sloppy Keeneland course.

Two time stakes winner Cocked and Loaded makes his first start since taking the G3 Iroquois at this distance at Churchill back in September for Larry Rivelli. Earlier this season, he won the Tremont at Belmont after his debut maiden victory at Keeneland.

Greenpointcrusader has won his last two after just missing in his debut. A maiden win was followed by an impressive looking tally by a drawing away 4 ½ lengths in the G1 Champagne over the sloppy track at Belmont for Dom Schettino.

Exaggerator made a bit of a premature move when he grabbed the lead in mid-stretch of the Breeders’ Futurity before getting run down by Brody’s Cause. He looked very professional taking the G2 Saratoga Special two starts back for Keith Desormeaux.

The Rest

Ralis won the G1 Hopeful on closing Day at Saratoga by over five lengths in his fifth start but called it a day early when he beat just two in the Champagne most recently.

Isotherm debuted on dirt with a fourth place finish then won two in a row on turf, including the G3 Pilgrim in a blanket finish last out for George Weaver who has decided to forego a tilt in the Juvenile Turf for this.

Riker is a perfect four for four for Nick Gonzalez but all four wins have come on the Woodbine Polytrack. Three of those victories were stakes, including the G3 Grey going this distance.

Rated R Superstar made a pair of strong middle moves in the Iroquois and Breeders’ Futurity but flattened out through the lane to finish second and third, respectively, for Ken McPeek.

Desormeaux will try to turn the tables on Nyquist once again with Swipe, who has finished second to that one in his last three starts. He may have been best when he brushed with his foe in deep stretch of the Front Runner.

Romans will also send out Unbridled Outlaw, who suffered through a disastrous second half of the Iroquois yet still managed to finish third. He gets a key rider switch to Mike Smith.

Tale of S’avall tired to fifth after dueling on the front end of the Champagne after breaking his maiden for a then-streaking Barclay Tagg on Travers Day at Saratoga.

Conquest Big E finished second to Brody’s Cause in his bow than broke his maiden in the slop over this course at this trip when Mark Casse took the blinkers off.

Waterloo Bridge jumps the pond for Aidan O’Brien while making his dirt debut sporting a suspect dirt pedigree. He’s won two of his six on turf, including the G2 Norfolk two back.

Sliding Springs, third in the G3 Bourbon on turf off a maiden turf score for Casse and Tom’s Ready, third out maiden winner for Dallas Stewart, are on the also eligible list.

The Strategy

Did that second turn come as a surprise to Nyquist or will it prove to be his undoing? The answer to that question could very well be the key to this race.

The Bomb

Go watch the replay of the Iroquois and tell me Unbridled Outlaw wasn’t best. If he’s anything close to his morning line of 15-1 I’m jumping all over him.

[StarDust Bum]

BC - Turf
October 27, 2015

Distance: 1 ½ miles (T)
Purse: $3 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, October 31st
Time: 4:50 p.m. EDT

The History

Pebbles in 1985 and Miss Alleged in 1991 are the only two fillies to have beaten the boys in this. Theatrical finally got the job done in 1987 and more importantly helped forge the Bill Mott/Allen Paulson partnership that would rule the sport for a decade. Kotashaan capped an amazing Horse of the Year season with a win in 1993. High Chaparral won it in 2002, then dead-heated with Johar in 2003, the only dead heat for win in Breeders’ Cup history. Better Talk Now won it in 2004 before failing to do so the next four years. Conduit won consecutive runnings in 2008 and 2009. In 2011, Aidan O’Brien trained St. Nicholas Abbey to win with his son Joe in the saddle. Main Sequence won his fourth G1 in as many tries with his patented late run to take it down last season.

Favorites: 9 for 31 (29%)
Shortest: $3.80 (High Chaparral, 2002 and Conduit, 2009)
Highest: $108.80 (Lashkari, 1984)
U.S based: 13/Foreign based: 19
The champ is here? No. Main Sequence was retired earlier this season.

The Best

While American Pharoah has dominated on the racetrack and in the headlines on this side of the world for most of the year, Europe has been raving about their sophomore superstar, Golden Horn, and we’ll get a glimpse at him in the Turf.

Golden Horn has come within a neck of being a perfect seven for seven this season and has won four G1 races, including the Epsom Derby, the Coral-Eclipse Stakes, the Irish Champion and the Arc de Triomphe, his latest conquest. He defeated Flintshire, who toyed with U.S. rivals when he won the G1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga, two time Arc winner Treve and 14 others on that day at Longchamp. Though no horse has ever won the Arc and this event, he across the pond seemingly with a stranglehold on this race for trainer John Gosden.

Perhaps America’s best hope at keeping the Turf title here is four time G1 winner Big Blue Kitten for Chad Brown. Now seven-year-old, Big Blue Kitten has come a long way since being offered up in a $35K maiden claimer in his debut as he has won 14 of 29 starts, good for over $2.6 million in earnings.

In fact, Big Blue Kitten is having the best year of his career in 2015. He’s won three starts, including the United Nations for the second time and the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational last out, a race he was running in for the third consecutive season. Sandwiched between those last two tallies is a runner-up finish in the G1 Arlington Million. It’s worth noting that his last three starts he has had a rabbit, Shining Copper, on the front end to insure a solid early pace for his patented late run.

The Rest

Twilight Eclipse finally captured a G1, one that eluded him for the first 23 starts of his career when he won the Man O’War at Belmont earlier this season. Last year, he finished out the season with four consecutive runner-up/third place finishes behind Main Sequence, including a third place finish in this event for Tom Albertrani. He may have been best when beaten less than a length in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic after getting shuffled back along the inside for nearly a quarter mile.

Brown will also send out Slumber, who’s looking for his first win at this distance after losing in his first seven tries. This seven-year-old nailed down his lone G1 tally this year when the blinkers were added in the G1 Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day when he beat Big Blue Kitten by almost three lengths.

One of the more popular runners in the Turf is The Pizza Man. Trained by Roger Bruggemann, The Pizza Man has won 15 of his 24 career starts and earned his first G1 win in the Arlington Million over his home course. He’s two for six overall at this trip having won the G3 Star N Stripes twice at Arlington.

Three-year-filly Found ships in for Aidan O’Brien off a runner-up finish in the G1 Champion Stakes at Ascot after finishing five lengths behind Golden Horn in the Arc when she finished ninth. Earlier this year she finished second to Golden Horn by a length in the Irish Champion Stakes. This will be her third start in 27 days.

A former confirmed front runner, Todd Pletcher changed tactics with Red Rifle midway through this season and it’s paid off in the form of a pair of victories in the G3 Dominion Day over the Polytrack at Woodbine and the G2 Bowling Green on the lawn at Saratoga. He was second to Flintshire in the Sword Dancer but failed to fire as the 8-5 favorite when fourth in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic last out.

Da Big Hoss has won all three of his starts since being claimed by Mike Maker in June at Churchill Downs. He was elevated to victory in an allowance/optional claimer before winning the John’s Call at Saratoga and the G3 Kentucky Cup Turf, his first start at this distance, at Kentucky Downs, in his latest.

Big John B has won his last three starts against lesser competition, including the G3 Cougar II on dirt at this distance and the G2 Del Mar Handicap on turf for the second year in a row, most recently for Phil D’Amato.

Cage Fighter just missed in the G3 Knickerbocker to the streaking Messi last out at Belmont going 1 1/8 miles, the longest distance he has ever competed at in his career for James Lawrence III.

Ordak Dan is a seven-year-old Argentinian bred import that will be making his first start in over five months for trainer Juan Etchechoury. He’s won nearly half of his 13 starts on turf and is two for three at this distance with both of his 12 furlong wins coming in the same G1 event in Argentina two years apart.

The aforementioned rabbit Shining Copper is Brown’s final representative in here. He almost stole the show in the United Nations before finally losing the lead in deep stretch when he wound up fourth at 129-1 then dug in gamely to get beat just a length when third in the Arlington Million. Last out he played his role to a tee, opening up an 11 length lead before fading in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic to fifth.

The Strategy

While most people believe the Euros always hold an edge in the Turf events, I like to look at each race individually. In this instance, Golden Horn appears to be the goods BUT I’m not sold on the other filly. He must be used but I’m inclined to find an insurance policy or two for Pick 4 purposes.

The Bomb

Mike Maker is so good when he claims turf horses and it’s showed with Da Big Hoss. He’d need things to go brilliantly perfect to win but at 20-1 or so he’s definitely worth a flyer and to use in exotic wagers.

[StarDust Bum]

BC - Filly & Mare Sprint
October 27, 2015


Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up (f&m)
Date: Saturday, October 31st
Time: 1:25 p.m. EDT

The History

Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn’t configured for the intended distance. Groupie Doll became the first back to back winner in 2013.

Favorites: 3 for 8 (37%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
Highest: $42.40 (Musical Romance, 2011)
The champ is here? Yes. Like Groupie Doll in 2013, Judy the Beauty will be looking for back-to-back scores.

The Best

Cavorting comes in on a three race win streak for Kiaran McLaughlin but will be facing older for the first time. After starting her career with pair of sprint tallies, Cavorting ended last season and started this one with a pair of dismal efforts going a mile.

McLaughlin quickly turned her back in distance and made her into an accomplished sprinting closer, with scores in the Jersey Girl, G1 Test and G2 Prioress against sophomore fillies, all coming with a powerful late kick. Overall, she has won all five of her starts going this seven furlong trip or less with her biggest win coming at this distance.

Defending champ Judy the Beauty is winless since her head victory in this event last season but has raced just three times. She started the year with a gutsy second place finish by a neck in the G1 Humana Distaff on Derby Day, her first start in six months. She finished a dull third nearly three months later in the G2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga before coming off of a two month layoff to finish third going six furlongs in the G2 TCA over this course when she raced along the rail throughout for Wesley Ward.

La Verdad wheels back in a week for trainer Linda Rice, who, as it turns out, used the Iroquois against New York breds as a prep/experiment for this spot. A perfect six for six this season, La Verdad won races like the G2 Distaff, G3 Vagrancy, G2 Honorable Miss and G2 Gallant Bloom last out, in gate-to-wire fashion. But in the Iroquois, she rated off the early pace before making the lead on the far turn to win by open lengths.

Dame Dorothy has been the model of consistency throughout her career and won her lone G1 when nailing Judy the Beauty on the money in the Humana. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Dame Dorothy has won four of her five starts at this distance with her lone blemish coming at Saratoga where she didn’t run a step when next to last in the G1 Ballerina. So far, it’s been her only off-the-board finish in 11 tries.

The Rest

Taris returns to the scene of her biggest tally, having won the G2 Raven Run here at this distance last fall by nine lengths. Purchased by Coolmore and turned over to Simon Callaghan, she just missed in the G1 La Brea before returning from a seven month rest to win the G3 Rancho Bernardo at Del Mar. Last out, she dueled herself into the defeat against just four others in the G3 L.A. Woman at Santa Anita.

The speedy Super Majesty is a nose short of being a perfect four for four in her short career. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, she won the first two starts of her career at Santa Anita and Los Alamitos by daylight before finding a mile to be a bit too far in her only taste of defeat. Last out she went gate-to-wire in the G3 Dogwood at Churchill.

Merry Meadow lost the first 10 starts of her career. Since then, she’s won nine of 19, including four graded stakes and is searching for that elusive G1 for Mark Hennig in here. Last in the Ballerina in her latest, Merry Meadow has done some of her best work off of layoffs in the past, including wins in the G3 Hurricane Bertie and G2 Princess Rooney this season.

Multiple G1 winner Artemis Agrotera will be making her first start since failing to fire at 9-2 in this event last year for trainer Mike Hushion, who feels this filly is training lights out and deserves the chance to try this ambitious spot.

Last year at this time, you could have claimed Fioretti for $50K out of a two lifetime claimer. Now, she’s a multiple stakes winner for Anthony Hamilton, Jr. and got her first graded score when coming from off the pace to win the TCA last out.

Kiss to Remember is another former stakes winner turned claimer who hasn’t missed the board in her four tries since being transferred to trainer Marty Wilson this past summer. Third in the Princess Rooney, Kiss to Remember won and placed in minor stakes at Gulfstream and missed by just a length in the Ballerina when settling for place money.

Room for Me has proven to be a solid claim for David Jacobsen, who took her for $12,500 out of her seasonal bow at Santa Anita. She’s gone on to win four of eight since for close to $300K, finished a half-length behind La Verdad in the Vagrancy and third in the Ballerina.

Stonetastic set the pace in this event last year before tiring to finish fourth for Kelly Breen and has run just twice this season. After missing by a neck to Ballerina winner Unbridled Forever in a minor stakes at Saratoga, Stonetastic romped by over 15 lengths in an allowance/optional claimer at Parx in her latest.

Wavell Avenue is another former claimer seeking graded stakes glory for Chad Brown while coming off a solid runner-up finish to La Verdad in the Gallant Bloom in her latest.

Former graded stakes winner Sweet Whiskey has just one win in nearly two years for Pletcher, an allowance/optional claiming tally at Saratoga three starts back. She finished fifth most recently in the TCA.

The Strategy

The three big questions in this race are whether or not Judy the Beauty has anything left at the age of six, can La Verdad come back in just a week and can Cavorting handle her elders. If the answer to any of those questions is “yes” than one of them should win. If the answer is “no” then anything, literally, anything, can happen in here. It’s that wide open.

The Bomb

Mike Hushion is perennially one of the highest percentage trainers on the NYRA circuit and often leans toward the conservative side when it comes to his horses. For him to try this with Artemis Agrotera speaks volumes. She’s for me at 12-1 or better.

[StarDust Bum]

B]BC - Mile
October 27, 2015[/B]


Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, October 31st
Time: 3:30 p.m. EDT

The History

Where should I start?!?! Four horses have won multiple runnings, starting with Miesque beating the boys in 1987 and 1988. The speedy Lure won back to back runnings in 1992 and 1993 before failing to accomplish the three-peat in 1994. Da Hoss, amazingly, won it in 1996, ran once in between then re-rallied in the final strides to win it two years later in 1998. And, of course, Goldikova won three in a row from 2008 through 2010 before finishing third in 2011. In 2012, Wise Dan capped off his Horse of the Year campaign with a popular Mile score over 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and came back to defend his Mile title in 2013. It’s worth noting that Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head has won three and is a five-time Mile winner and the only person to win a Breeders’ Cup race as a trainer and a jockey, as he was the regular rider of Miesque.

Favorites: 11 for 31 (35%)
Shortest: $3.60 (Wise Dan, 2012)
Highest: $131.60 (Court Vision, 1986)
U.S based: 18/Foreign based: 13
The champ is here? Yes. Karakontie will be back to defend his title.

The Best

Esoterique will look to join a list of fillies and mares that includes Royal Heroine, Miesque, Ridgewood Pearl, Six perfections and Goldikova by winning this Mile as she ships over from Europe for the great Andre Fabre.

Taking on the boys in commonplace on the other side of the pond and Esoterique defeated them two back in the G1 Jacques Le Marois by 1 ½ lengths before beating her own sex last out in the G1 Chariot Stakes, both at a mile. Earlier this season, she was second beaten just a length by multiple G1 winner Solow.

Fabre’s hand in this event appears even stronger when you figure the sophomore Make Believe into the equation. He won a G1 back in May at Longchamp then proved to be no match for Classic contender Gleneagles in the G1 St James’s Palace a month later. Last out, off of nearly a four month layoff, he sizzled in the Prix de la Foret, stopping the clock for an about seven furlong distance in 1:17.

Grand Arch could be the best U.S. hope to win the Mile this season as he rides a two race win streak for Brian Lynch.

Off the board in this event last year, Grand Arch started this season with a win in a money allowance contest over this course, where he has won three and placed three times in six starts overall, before a pair of off-the-board stakes tries. He turned things around when he parlayed a perfect ground saving trip into a neck victory over Ironicus in the G2 Fourstardave at Saratoga before working out another dream run in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile last out when he held off a late rally from Turf contender The Pizza Man.

Karakontie upset the Mile applecart to the tune of 30-1 last year for trainer Jonathan Pease when he came in off of a pair of dismal performances. He’s run just twice since, in August and September, and while they were far from dismal efforts they certainly weren’t awe inspiring. A sixth place finish behind Esoterique was followed by an even finish in a G1 at this distance at Longchamp.

The Rest

Sophomore filly Impassable ships over for Carlos Laffon-Parias off of a pair of G2 victories in France going this trip four months apart, with the last coming against older horses in early October on the Arc undercard at Longchamp.

Mondialiste made it three in a row when he added Lasix and stormed home to nail down the G1 Woodbine Mile in his North American debut last out for David O’Meara. There appears to be plenty of speed signed on in here for his late kick.

Bill Mott sends out Tourist, a hard-charging third in the Shadwell Turf Mile in his latest. Two starts back, in his first start since a next-to-last finish in this event last season some 10 months earlier, Tourist went gate-to-wire in a minor stakes at Kentucky Downs.

Obviously will be making his fourth consecutive appearance in the Mile, with his best performance coming back in 2012 when he set the pace before tiring to third behind Wise Dan and Animal Kingdom. In his only start since tiring to fifth after opening up a big lead turning for home last year, he opened a big lead in the stretch in the Woodbine Mile, eventually tiring to third for Phil D’Amato.

Mshawish gutted out a pair of stakes wins to start the season at Gulfstream, the G2 Fort Lauderdale and G1 Gulfstream Park Turf, before finishing third in the G1 Dubai Turf on the World Cup undercard despite preparations not going perfectly in the desert. Fifth last out in the Fourstardave for Todd Pletcher, this will be his first start in 11 weeks.

Tepin will be taking on the boys for the first time for Mark Casse while in the midst of a sensational season. Wins in the G1 Just a Game and G1 First Lady, a race she won as her rider pleased by a widening seven lengths over this course at this trip, sandwich tough-luck runner-up performances in the G1 Diana and G2 Ballston Spa.

Time Test ships in for Roger Charlton off a score in a G2 in Europe where he beat just three others. He finished fourth two back in the G1 Juddmonte International behind Arabian Queen and Europe’s best, Golden Horn, the Turf favorite.

Recepta tackles the boys off of a pair of mile tallies in the De La Rose and G3 Nobel Damsel for Jimmy Toner.
.
The Strategy

I usually don’t buy into the general statement that the Euros are better on turf but I think they have an edge in here and his name is Make Believe who appears to be for real.

The Bomb

Tourist was able to come from off the pace successfully in his latest and should be able to work in a nice trip in here at 15-1 or better.

[StarDust Bum]

BC - Juvenile Fillies
October 27, 2015


Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YO (f)
Date: Saturday, October 31st
Time: 12:05 p.m. EDT

The History

Open Mind, Go For Wand, Meadow Star and Silverbulletday are some of the fantastic young ladies to have captured this event. My Flag splashed home in the mud to win in 1995 before her daughter Storm Flag Flying took the 2002 renewal at Arlington Park. Ria Antonia was put up via DQ in 2013 after She’s a Tiger bumped her in deep stretch.

Favorites: 17 for 31 (55%)
Shortest: $2.40 (Meadow Star, 1990) *Shortest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*
Highest: $125.40 (Take Charge Brandi, 2014)

The Best

Songbird is undefeated in three starts and could very well be the shortest priced favorite at the Breeders’ Cup races this season. And it is justified.

Songbird has been nothing short of sensational for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. She started her career with an easy tally in her debut going six furlongs before powering home to win the seven furlong, G1 Del Mar Debutante by 5 ¼ lengths. Last out, in her two turn debut, she won with similar ease in the G1 Chandelier at Santa Anita going this distance. She has led at nearly every call of her career.

Rachel’s Valentina, daughter of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, has won both of her starts, both at Saratoga, for trainer Todd Pletcher and comes into this off of an eight week layoff. She encountered a wee bit of trouble at the start in her debut before closing stoutly to win by two lengths going six furlongs then came back five weeks later to win the G1 Spinaway going seven panels with a similar late rally. This will be her first start going a distance of ground.

Nickname brushed with Rachel’s Valentina in their debut before finishing fourth then proceeded to win her next two starts, including the G1 Frizette going a mile in the slop at Belmont last out for trainer Steve Asmussen.

The Rest

Dothraki Queen won the first two starts of her career, a turf maiden on the turf and the G2 Pocahontas going this trip on the dirt at Churchill, before closing to finish second in the G1 Alcibiades last out in the slop over this course for Ken McPeek.

Land Over Sea was third in the Del Mar Debutante and second in the Chandelier behind Songbird in her last two after breaking her maiden on the turf at Del Mar going a mile for Doug O’Neill.

Like Rachel’s Valentina, Tap to It will be making her first start since the Spinaway. After breaking her maiden at first asking from the rail, despite a troubled trip, by two lengths from well back, Tap to It came running late in the Spinaway but had to settle for second.

Right There will be making her sixth start for Keith Desormeaux, who’ll add blinkers for this. She broke her maiden in the Landaluce at Santa Anita in her second start and had finished fourth and third, respectively, behind Songbird in the Del Mar Debutante and Chandelier.

Bold Quality was disqualified from second to third in the Pocahontas after a bumping incident in the stretch. Trained by Kelly Breen, she broke her maiden in her debut at Parx.

Forever Darling finished an even fourth in her debut then broke her maiden eight weeks later from just off the pace at Santa Anita for Richard Baltas.

Ma Can Do It is still a maiden but did finish third in the Alcibiades last out for Dale Romans.

The Strategy

I don’t like to tell you a prohibitive favorite can’t get beat because they can all get beat but Songbird figures to be awfully tough in here. You rarely get to single a horse in the Breeders’ Cup in a multi-race wager, like a Pick 4, but I think you can here.

The Bomb

Tap to It should appreciate the added distance and will likely be closer to the pace than she has been in the past. You must get 15-1 or higher for her to be any type of value.