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  • At the gate - friday

    At the Gate - Friday
    October 30, 2015


    It is Breeders’ Cup Friday, with four championship races on tap highlighted by the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).

    The race is missing defending champion Untapable, who spiked a fever this week, and the leader of the division Beholder, who is taking on the boys tomorrow in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

    You would think that might affect the field for the Distaff, but the full field of 14 will feature nine Grade 1 winners and it is a great betting race.

    Wedding Toast is the 4-1 morning line favorite and comes into the race off back-to-back Grade 1 wins, taking the Ogden Phihpps and Beldame Invitational.

    However, handicappers are going to have a hard time separating her with Got Lucky, Sheer Drama and I’m a Chatterbox, who each figure to take some betting action.

    As you can see below, I am looking for a generous price with Curalina, who may end up getting overlooked in the betting.

    The Breeders’ Cup action starts at 3:30 ET with the $1 million Juvenile Turf (G1). Here are some betting trend notes I made this week on today’s four Breeders’ Cup races:

    Juvenile Turf Trends

    Favorites have won just one of the eight running of this race...Euro invaders have won five with trainers John Gosden and Aidan O'Brien both winning in back to back years...The Group 1 Dubai Dewhurst Stakes produced the 2012 and 2013 winners...Pounced ($6.80) in 2009 is the only short priced winner of this race, and he was the most lightly raced with just three starts...The top exacta was in 2011 with Wrote (11-1) over Excaper (33-1) returning $964.00...Jockey Frankie Dettori has won this race three times, Ryan Moore twice...Hootenanny won last year's edition off the longest break, 68 days...

    Dirt Mile Trends

    Favorites have won just one of the eight editions of the Dirt Mile...The average win payoff is $32.30 and the exacta is $352.00...The last three winners have taken the field gate to wire, all at Santa Anita...Three-year-olds have won this race twice, Goldencents in 2013 the most recent...All of the winners of the Dirt Mile exited either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race in their final prep...The two Churchill Downs editions were one turn events and they were both won by runners coming from off the pace...Two-time winner Goldencents used the Santa Anita Sprint Handicap (G1) as his final prep both years...2012 winner Tapizar used the Kelso (G2)...Dakota Phone was the biggest price, paying $77.40 in 2010 over the Churchill Downs main track…

    Juvenile Fillies Turf Trends

    Favorites have only won one of the seven runnings of this race, Lady Eli winning last year ($6.80)...U.S. based fillies have won five of the seven races...The Ms. Grillo at Belmont Park has produced three winners...The Natalma at Woodbine has produced two winners...Trainer Chad Brown has won this race twice and also has a pair of runner up finishes...Maram (11-1) and Heart Shaped (10-1) produced the largest exacta in 2008, paying $350.00...The average super for this race is over $11K...Four of the winner paid between $21.60 and $29.20...No winner has taken the field gate to wire...

    Distaff Trends

    Favorites have won 13 of the previous 31 editions of the Distaff...Favorites have won three of the last four...Three-year-olds have won three of last four...Royal Delta is the lone wire to wire winner going back 11 years...The average win payoff is $18.69...The top exacta was in 2005, Pleasant Home (30-1) over Society Selection (11-1) paid $692.00...The Beldame has produced five of the last nine winners...The Lady's Secret/Zenyatta has produced three in that time...Trainer Bill Mott has won the Distaff five times...Seven of the last eight Distaff winners came into the race with at least one Grade 1 win...Eight of the last nine Distaff winners came into the race with at least two triple digit Beyer Speed Figures...


    Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

    BEL Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (12:45 ET)
    9 Queen of the Spa 7-2
    2 Midnight Champagne 5-1
    10 Fiery Cat 3-1
    5 Resolute Babe 10-1

    Analysis: Queen of the Spa dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth last out in the slop in a race washed off the turf. The runner up Saratoga Karaoke came back to beat $25,000 non-winners of three in her next outing on Oct. 23. The Gullo trainee was a good second two back at the Spa against $20,000 non-winners of three. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and she looks capable of moving forward back on a fast main track.

    Midnight Champagne pressed the early pace toward the outside and weakened to finish fifth last out against straight three-year-old fillies for a $25,000 tag over a wet track here. She was making her first start off the claim by the Miceli barn that took her for $20,000. She beat $50,000 starter allowance foes back in April for her first victory against winners. She looks well spotted and gets a jock upgrade.

    Wagering
    WIN: #9 to win at 5-2 or better.
    EX: 2,9 / 2,5,9,10
    TRI: 2,9 / 2,5,9,10 / 2,4,5,9,10

    Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

    BEL Race 8 The Turnback the Alarm Hcp G3 (5:08 ET)
    5 Call Pat 4-1
    3 Delightful Joy 5-2
    9 America 3-1
    2 La Madrina 8-1

    Analysis: Call Pat exits the Beldame (G1) where she checked in fourth, beaten 11 lengths for the top spot behind a couple of major players for the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) tomorrow. Two back at Ellis Park this gal won the Groupie Doll (G3) going a mile earning a career top speed fig. She fits better in this spot for the high % Cox barn.

    Delightful Joy made a good late rally while wide to get up and win the Monmouth Oaks (G3) last out earning a career top speed fig in the effort. She beat Alw-1 foes two back off a similar break as she comes back here off a two-month break here. There is not a ton of pace in here but this gal looks headed in the right direction for the Chad Brown barn.

    Wagering
    WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better
    EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5,9
    TRI: 3,5 / 2,3,5,9 / 2,3,5,6,9

    Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

    KEE Race 9 The Breeders' Cup Distaff G1 (5:35 ET)
    8 Curalina 12-1
    7 Wedding Toast 4-1
    1 I'm a Chatterbox 8-1
    12 Got Lucky 6-1

    Analysis: Curalina exits the Beldame which has been a key race for the Distaff. The filly tracked the early pace and could not get by Wedding Toast in the stretch in a runner up finish, the winner taking advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed that day. She is a two-time Grade 1 winner, taking the Acorn back in June at a mile at Belmont Park and taking the Coaching Club American Oaks thanks to a DQ of I'm a Chatterbox in deep stretch. She is proven at nine furlongs and looks to still perhaps have some upside for the Todd Pletcher barn that won this racer with Ashado in 2004. Joel Rosario picks up the call as John Velazquez opted to ride Untapable who ended up scratching out of this race with a fever. The filly has three good works over the surface and is going to be a fair price in this spot.

    Wedding Toast exits the Beldame where she went gate to wire to win by 2 3/4 lengths. While the effort may have been aided slightly from a speed friendly surface, she was making her first start off a 3 1/2 month break. She took the field gate to wire two back to win the Ogden Phipps (G1) and is the one runner in this field with a triple digit Beyer and she has earned them in back to back starts. There is plenty of speed in here but she showed three back in her Ruffian (G2) win that she does not need the lead.
    I'm a Chatterbox stalked the early pace and finished strongly to win the Cotillion (G1) last out at Philly, the race last year's winner Untapable used as a final prep. She swept the three stakes at Fair Grounds earlier this year and then ran a decent third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), her lone finish out of the exacta. She is consistent and should get a good tracking trip behind the speed. Her 8-1 morning line looks generous.

    Wagering
    WIN: #8 to win at 8-1 or better.
    EX: 7,8 / 1,7,8,12
    TRI: 7,8 / 1,7,8,12 / 1,7,8,12,14

    Live Longshots:
    These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

    Belmont Park
    R1: #5 Resolute Babe 10-1
    R2: #4 Media Kid 12-1
    R2: #3 Neoclassic 8-1
    R3: #2 Real Estate Rich 10-1
    R4: #7 Macagone 10-1
    R6: #6 Manofire 12-1
    R8: #2 La Madrina 8-1
    R9: #2 Alabama Bound 10-1
    R9: #6 Out of Nowhere 12-1

    Good luck today!
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    2015 Breeders' Cup Preview

    DAY 1 - FRIDAY, OCT. 30, 2015

    Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time Stabile's Preview

    Juvenile Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile 3:30 p.m. ET Analysis

    Dirt Mile $1,000,000 1 Mile 4:10 p.m. ET Analysis

    Juvenile Fillies Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile 4:50 p.m. ET Analysis

    Distaff $2,000,000 1 1/8 Miles 5:35 p.m. ET Analysis


    DAY 2 - SATURDAY, OCT. 31, 2015

    Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time Stabile's Preview

    Juvenile Fillies $2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles 12:05 p.m. ET Analysis

    Turf Sprint $1,000,000 5.5 Furlongs 12:45 p.m. ET Analysis

    Filly & Mare Sprint $1,000,000 7 Furlongs 1:25 p.m. ET Analysis

    Filly & Mare Turf $2,000,000 1 3/16 Miles 2:10 p.m. ET Analysis

    Sprint $1,500,000 6 Furlongs 2:50 p.m. ET Analysis

    Mile $2,000,000 1 mile 3:30 p.m. ET Analysis

    Juvenile $2,000,000 1 1/16 miles 4:10 p.m. ET Analysis

    Turf $3,000,000 1 1/2 miles 4:50 p.m. ET Analysis

    Classic $5,000,000 1 1/4 miles 5:35 p.m. ET Analysis
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      BC - Juvenile Turf

      Distance: 1 mile (T)
      Purse: $1 million
      Age: 2YO (c&g)
      Date: Friday, October 30th
      Time: 3:30 p.m. EDT

      The History

      Contested by both sexes in its inaugural running back in 2007 and featured the Breeders’ Cup debut of Gio Ponti, who had a nightmare trip.

      Favorites: 1 for 8 (12%)
      Shortest: $6.80 (Pounced, 2009)
      Highest: $27.20 (Nownownow, 2007)
      U.S based: 3/Foreign based: 5

      The Best

      Airoforce has won the first two starts of his career with impressive late rallies from mid-pack for trainer Mark Casse. After breaking his maiden at Kentucky Downs in a sprint, he took the 1 1/16 miles G3 Bourbon over a yielding Keeneland course last out.

      Cymric ships over from Europe for John Gosden off of a narrow defeat in the G1 Grand Criterium going a mile. Overall, he’s won two of his five career starts.

      Hit It a Bomb jumps the pond for Aidan O’Brien having won the first two starts of his career, his debut on turf and a minor stakes over a synthetic surface, both at seven furlongs.

      Azar broke his maiden at third asking in the G2 With Anticipation at Saratoga for Todd Pletcher before making the lead in deep stretch of the G3 Pilgrim only to get run down on the money by Juvenile contender Isotherm.

      The Rest

      Birchwood won the G2 Superlative going seven furlongs in England and has won half of his six starts overall for Richard Fahey. He was third most recently in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National back in September.

      Camelot Kitten is a full brother to defending Turf Sprint winner Bobby’s Kitten and won his debut after a gutsy late stretch battle by a neck. Last out he closed from last in a field of 14 to get the place money in the Bourbon for Chad Brown.

      Conquest Daddyo broke slowly yet still managed to muster up a solid late run to win the G2 Summer at Woodbine in his turf debut for Casse. Earlier this year he was one for two with a second over the Woodbine Polytrack.

      Hollywood Dan had his two race win streak snapped when he finished third in the G1 Front Runner in his only start on dirt for Peter Miller. After an off-the-board finish in his debut, he broke his maiden and won a minor stakes at Del Mar on the lawn.

      Manhattan Dan broke his maiden in a turf sprint before tiring to third after setting the pace in the Summer and fading through the lane on the dirt when third in the G2 Futurity at Belmont in his latest for Gary Contessa.

      O’Brien put the blinkers back on Shogun after a failed experiment without them when he finished sixth in the Grand Criterium last out. With blinkers, he owns a maiden tally and third place finish in the G2 Futurity at the Curragh in Ireland.

      Sky Marshall had a tough trip when he had to settle for second in the summer after breaking his maiden in a money allowance contest two starts back in his second try for Barbara Minshall when she added blinkers.

      Ray’s the Bar added Lasix for Brown in his U.S. debut in the Pilgrim last out and overcame some traffic trouble at the top of the stretch to grab the show dough.

      Highland Sky had an even worse trip in the Pilgrim when he had nowhere to run at the eighth pole yet still managed a fourth place finish when beaten less than two lengths for Barclay Tagg.

      Dressed in Hermes broke his maiden in his third start for Janet Armstrong in the Zuma Beach at Santa Anita as the 8-5 favorite when the blinkers came off and he was making his first start in two months.

      Wesley Ward’s Sheikh of Sheikhs broke his maiden in his debut then tired in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last out, both on dirt. He is on the also eligible list.

      The Strategy

      The Euros always seem to hold their own in this relatively new event but a couple of the stateside runners have really impressed me this season. I think, for multi-race purposes, you need to find a happy medium.

      The Bomb

      It’s not often Chad Brown and Javier Castellano team up with a 20-1 shot on the morning line but that’s the case in here with Ray’s the Bar. I’m not that greedy – I’ll take 15-1.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        BC - Dirt Mile

        Distance: 1 mile
        Purse: $1 million
        Age: 3up
        Date: Friday, October 30th
        Time: 4:10 p.m. EDT

        The History

        Run around two turns at 1 mile and 70 yards in 2007 then on synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009. Finally run at intended distance on dirt for first time in 2010. Goldencents became the first back-to-back winner of the event with a pair of gate-to-wire scorchers the past two years.

        Favorites: 1 for 8 (12%)
        Shortest: $3.40 (Goldencents, 2014)
        Highest: $77.40 (Dakota Phone, 2010)
        The champ is here? No. Goldencents has been retired.

        The Best

        After contemplating a run in the Classic, the connections of Liam’s Map, including his trainer Todd Pletcher, have opted for what seems to be an easier spot in here. Of course, there is a $4 million difference in purse money but I guess that’s a story for another day.

        Starts have come at a premium for Liam’s Map, who has run just seven times since making his debut in last August 2014. He’s been remarkable on the track, winning five of his seven starts and placing in the other two, including two starts back when he led every step of the way except the last few of the G1 Whitney at Saratoga when he had to settle for second behind Honor Code. Last out, he won the G1 Woodward by daylight. He’ll be cutting back in distance for this and has won all three of his starts at this trip.

        Red Vine found some trouble at the start of the Kelso but rallied nicely to finish second in what is turning out to be a pretty successful season. Trained by Christophe Clement, he was third in the G1 Pacific Classic and second in the G3 Salvatore Mile before starting the year with a pair of wins.

        Bill Mott altered course and has decided to run Lea in here instead of the Mile. Second last out on the turf in the G1 Woodbine Mile on turf, his first start on the lawn in over two years, Lea has been towards the top of the handicap division on dirt for the better part of the season. Winner of the G1 Donn last year, he was second in the race this season before finishing third in the G1 Dubai World Cup and second by just a neck in the G1 Stephen Foster.

        THE REST

        Wicked Strong is winless in seven starts this year for trainer Jimmy Jerkens but did finish third in the Woodward and second most recently behind Tonalist in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. Last year he won the G1 Wood Memorial and G2 Jim Dandy and missed by a nose in the G1 Travers.

        Valid comes into this looking for three in a row having won the G3 Iselin two back before gutting out a win in a minor stakes going seven furlongs at Gulfstream last out for trainer Marcus Vitali. Earlier this year he finished third by just a length to Honor Code and Private Zone in the G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap going this distance.

        Bradester won the Salvatore Mile and G2 Monmouth Cup over Valid before having the tables turned in the Iselin last out when he finished second for Eddie Kenneally. Bradester has been much sharper in his last three since the blinkers were removed.

        Mr. Z will be looking for just his second win in 11 tries this year for D. Wayne Lukas. After failed efforts in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, Mr. Z went gate-to-wire to win the Ohio Derby by a nose before finishing second in the G2 Indiana Derby in the slop after setting the pace. Most recently, he tired to finish fourth behind Classic contender Frosted in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby.

        Tapiture closed out a solid sophomore campaign for trainer Steve Asmussen with a runner-up finish to Goldencents in this event last year. In five starts this year, Tapiture finally made it to the winners’ circle last out when taking the G3 Ack Ack going this distance at Churchill.

        War Envoy ships in from Europe for Aidan O’Brien for his first start on conventional dirt having raced on synthetics and the turf in the first 14 starts of his career that have yielded just two wins. Just one for six this season, he does sport a solid dirt pedigree.

        War Story tackles his elders for the first time in just his third start since being transferred to Jedd Radosevich. Earlier this year he was second in both the G3 Lecomte and G2 Risen Star and third in the G2 Louisiana Derby and G2 West Virginia Derby.

        Street Strategy will be looking for his third consecutive tally while stepping up to stakes company since an off-the-board finish in the G2 Rebel in 2014. Trained by Randy Morse, Street Strategy won a pair of allowance/optional claimers in his last two, including one around this awkward mile configuration at Keeneland where the field will start close to the first turn and finish up at the sixteenth pole, used on occasion as the alternate finish line.

        The Strategy

        Liam’s Map would have been no worse than third choice in the Classic, so you’d have to assume he’d have this bunch over the proverbial barrel. But there is some speed in here so while he is a deserving favorite I don’t think he’s as bulletproof as others do.

        The Bomb

        If the pace collapses and he takes to dirt, War Envoy might be able to grab a piece but you have to get 20-1 on him.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          BC - Juvenile Fillies Turf

          Distance: 1 mile (T)
          Purse: $1 million
          Age: 2YO (f)
          Date: Friday, October 30th
          Time: 4:50 p.m. EDT

          The History

          Created in 2008, a year after the Juvenile Turf where fillies were forced to face colts, there isn’t much. Flotilla and Chriselliam won consecutive runnings of this in 2012 and 2013 for Europe after the U.S. won the first four runnings.

          Favorites: 1 for 7 (14%)
          Shortest: $6.80 (Lady Eli, 2014)
          Highest: $29.20 (More Than Real, 2010)
          U.S based: 5/Foreign based: 2

          The Best

          Euro shipper Illuminate lost for the first time in four starts when she finished second in for Richard Hannon in the G1 Cheveley Park last out. Earlier this season she won the G3 Albany Stakes at the historic Royal Ascot meeting and captured the G2 Duchess of Cambridge. It’s worth noting that all four of her starts at come at six furlongs or less.

          Harmonize has won her last two against stakes company for Bill Mott since missing by just a nose after setting the pace in her debut. A gate-to-wire tally by four lengths in the P G Johnson at Saratoga was followed last out by a change in tactics, last to first run in the G3 Jessamine over this course.

          Alice Springs comes in from Europe for Aidan O’Brien having one her debut and her last, a $400K stakes by four lengths. Sandwiched in between are four consecutive defeats against graded stakes company, including a fourth place finish in the Cheveley Park.

          Catch a Glimpse has never been headed in her two turf starts for Mark Casse. After getting beat in an off the turf maiden affair at Saratoga, Catch a Glimpse went gate-to-wire in a money allowance contest and the G2 Natalma, both at Woodbine, in her last two starts.

          The Rest

          Thrilled defeated Harmonize in their debuts then finished second in the P G Johnson. She just missed in the G3 Miss Grillo last out when beaten a nose after making the lead in deep stretch.

          Nemoralia finished a strong second in the slop in the G1 Frizette last out for Jeremy Noseda, who opted to run her in here instead of the Juvenile Fillies. She won her two starts prior to the Frizette, a maiden on synthetics and a minor stakes on turf.

          Last Waltz makes her stateside debut for Chad Brown off of a third place finish in the G3 Weld Park at the Curragh in Ireland most recently when blinkers were added. The blinkers come off for this. She finished fourth going this trip two starts back.

          Brown also sends out Pricedtoperfection, a last out maiden winner in her second start. She lost her debut to Tin Type Gal who would have been one of the favorite in here but will be scratched.

          Sapphire Kitten ran on gamely to get second money in the Jessamine last out, her only start after breaking her maiden in a Kentucky Downs sprint for Joe Sharp.

          Andreya’s Reward won her debut and last start against minor stakes company at Gulfstream going this trip on the turf for Milton Wolfson but finished off the board in a Kentucky Downs stakes two back.

          Mirage finished third last out in a minor stakes at Santa Anita, her first start in the U.S. off of a four month layoff for new trainer Simon Callaghan.

          Gliding By stormed home from last after breaking slowly in her debut going this distance at Woodbine. She will be making her first start for Mott in this.

          Ruby Notion sheds blinkers for Wesley Ward despite winning three of her first four starts with them on. A maiden claiming score on dirt was followed by a fifth place finish at Royal Ascot and a pair of minor stakes wins on the turf at Monmouth and in an off-the-turfer in the slop at Laurel last out.

          Time and Motion gets in off the AE list for Jimmy Toner and will be looking for her first victory having finished fourth first time out and third in the Miss Grillo in her latest.

          The Strategy

          Another race you have to spread in since so many have already won or raced competitively in stakes races.

          The Bomb

          Gliding By already has handled a bad start, a big field and the trip AND gets a big trainer change to Mott. Should be 20-1 too!
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            BC - Distaff
            October 27, 2015



            Distance: 1 1/8 miles
            Purse: $2 million
            Age: 3up (f&m)
            Date: Friday, October 30th
            Time: 5:35 p.m. EDT

            The History

            In what could be considered the most memorable moment in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, Personal Ensign gunned down Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in THE final stride of the 1988 running at Churchill Downs. Bayakoa won back to back runnings the following two years. Inside Information won it in 1995 by 13 ½ lengths, the largest winning margin in Breeders’ Cup history. Before tackling the boys twice, Zenyatta graced this race with her presence when she won it in 2008. Royal Delta won her second consecutive running in 2012 before failing in her attempt to three-peat in 2013 when 2012 Juvenile Fillies champ Beholder became the first winner of a juvenile event to win another Breeders’ Cup race. Rosie Napravnik announced her retirement after guiding the three-year-old Untapable to a popular score last season.

            Favorites: 14 for 31 (45%)
            Shortest: $2.80 (Life’s Magic Entry, 1985)
            Highest: $113.80 (Spain, 2000)
            The champ is here? No. Untapable was withdrawn from consideration on Tuesday morning after spiking a temperature.

            The Best

            After missing most of last season with a few nagging injuries, Wedding Toast has come into her own, in this, her five-year-old season for Kiaran McLaughlin.

            It didn’t look good at the beginning of the year. Despite winning first out of a nine month layoff, Wedding Toast disappointed in both the G3 Rampart and G1 Madison going seven panels over this course before taking the G2 Ruffian from off the pace at Belmont. She’d revert back to her front running ways in the G1 Ogden Phipps when she took advantage of the lack of an early pace to go gate-to wire for her first G1 score. Nearly four months later, she went right to the front again to win the G1 Beldame Invitational by almost three lengths, stamping herself one of the favorites in here.

            Sheer Drama is another five-year-old, two time G1 winner this year, having won the Delaware Handicap and Personal Ensign at Saratoga in her last pair of starts when last seen this summer. Trained by David Fawkes, she’s been brilliant all season, having won or placed in all seven starts, including a win in the G2 Royal Delta at Gulfstream and runner-up finish in the G1 La Troienne at Churchill.

            2015 has been a bit of a break-out season for Got Lucky, who grabbed her first G1 last out when she flew home in the Spinster to get Untapable on the line for Todd Pletcher. Pletcher added blinkers towards the end of last season and though she was winless in her final two tries last year, stuck with the move this year and it’s finally starting to show dividends as Got Lucky has won four of seven this year, including three of her last four.

            The Rest

            Curalina stumbled at the start of the Beldame but still managed to finish second in her first start against older for Pletcher. Earlier this year, Curalina won four in a four including the G1 Acorn and G1 CCA Oaks, the latter via disqualification. Two starts back, 10 furlongs proved to be too far when she was third as the 2-1 favorite in the G1 Alabama.

            I’m a Chatterbox was the filly disqualified from the win in the CCA Oaks when she drifted out in deep stretch before a second place finish in the Alabama behind a loose-on-the-lead Embellish the Lace. Third in the G1 Kentucky Oaks earlier this season, she secured a G1 tally with an off the pace move in the Cotillion at Parx last out as the 2-1 chalk for Larry Jones.

            Stellar Wind has four of five this season for John Sadler with her lone defeat coming in the Kentucky Oaks where she encountered a brutal trip, stumbling at the start, then racing nine wide on the turn before a fourth place finish. Winner of the G1 Santa Anita Oaks earlier this season, Stellar Wind won the G2 Summer Oaks at Santa Anita and the G3 Torrey Pines at Del Mar in her latest, two months ago. This will be her first start against older.

            Stopchargingmaria won multiple G1 races as a sophomore last season but has managed just a pair of G3 tallies, the DuPont Distaff and Shuvee, this season from four tries. When last seen, she finished a disappointing fourth as the 3-2 favorite in the Personal Ensign over what is seemingly her favorite course, Saratoga, for Pletcher.

            Frivolous posted a huge upset back in June when she captured the G2 Fleur de Lis at 32-1 for Victoria Oliver in one of the biggest victories of her career. She failed to fire when fourth in the Spinster after winning a minor stakes at Churchill by eight lengths two back.

            Salama stamped her ticket to the Distaff with a victory in a G3 in Peru back in June before being turned over to Charlie Lopresti. In her prep for this on Oct 10, she rallied from far back to finish second in an allowance/optional claimer going this trip over the course.

            My Sweet Addiction won the G1 Vanity against just three rivals on the front end back at Santa Anita in May for Martin Jones and is winless in three starts since though did manage to hold onto second in the G1 Zenyatta behind Beholder last out.

            Despite her come from behind running style, Warren’s Venada jumped out to the early lead in this division at the beginning of the year with three consecutive wins, capped off by a 7 ¼ length romp in the G1 Santa Margarita. She’s winless in her last five since for Craig Lewis and was seventh most recently in the Zenyatta.

            Yahilwa was third in the three horse Spinster photo last out after finishing second to Beholder in the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar. Earlier this year she won the G3 Sixty Sails for Jim Cassidy at Hawthorne back in April.

            Calamity Kate goes out for Kelly Breen off of a second place finish in the Cotillion, her first start since capturing the G3 Delaware Oaks in front running style. She was off the board in her lone start over the course last year.

            Peace and War posted a 23-1 upset in the G1 Alcibiades last year over the strip in her U.S. debut but is winless in five starts since, including her last three for new trainer Graham Motion. She finished behind Calamity Kate in both the Delaware Oaks and Cotillion when second and third respectively in her last two.

            The Strategy

            I think your biggest decision here is to side with the older fillies and mares or the younger fillies. Both groups seem to take turns beating each other. So, the question is which group is stronger? I tend to think it’s the older bunch.

            The Bomb


            I’m having a tough time figuring out how the odds are going to shake out here but I think Stellar Wind might be a live longshot if she’s 12-1 or higher. She doesn’t offer any value if she’s a shorter price.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              BC - Facts and Figures
              October 27, 2015



              Historical Betting Notes

              -- Favorites are 92 for 279 (33%) in the 31-year history of the event, while those that were odds on favorites (under even money) are 23 for 50 (46%). The 1990 Juvenile Fillies at Belmont produced the shortest price in Breeders’ Cup history when Meadow Star returned $2.40.

              -- Only one of the 36 horses that have gone off at 100-1 or higher has won when Arcangues came from the other side of the pond to win the 1993 Classic as the biggest longshot in Breeders’ Cup history, returning $269.20.

              -- Inside Information posted the largest margin of victory in Breeders’ Cup history when she walloped her competition by 13 ½ lengths in the 1995 Distaff at Belmont. Seventeen horses have won by the shortest margin of victory, a nose, including Bayern the 2014 Classic.

              -- Foreign based runners have had tremendous success in Breeders’ Cup events. They’ve won 55 races overall, including a remarkable 44 of the 100 (44%) run on the grass. They’ve won seven on conventional dirt and four synthetic track races.

              -- Zenyatta, Beholder and Secret Circle are the only horses to ever win two different events.

              -- Goldikova is the only horse to ever win three Breeders’ Cup races.

              Horses that have won multiple Breeders’ Cup races

              Bayakoa – Distaff – 1989, 1990

              Beholder – Juvenile Fillies, 2012/Distaff, 2013

              Conduit – Turf – 2008, 2009

              Da Hoss – Mile – 1996, 1998

              Goldencents – Dirt Mile – 2013, 2014

              Goldikova – Mile – 2008, 2009, 2010

              Groupie Doll – F&M Sprint - 2012, 2013

              High Chapparal – Turf – 2002, 2003 (dead heat w/Johar)

              Lure – Mile – 1992, 1993

              Midnight Lute – Sprint – 2007, 2008

              Miesque – Mile – 1987, 1988

              Mizdirection – Turf Sprint – 2012, 2013

              Ouija Board – F&M Turf – 2004, 2006

              Royal Delta – Distaff – 2011, 2012

              Secret Circle – 2011 Juvenile Sprint/2013 Sprint

              Tiznow – Classic – 2000, 2001

              Wise Dan – Mile – 2012, 2013

              Zenyatta – Distaff, 2008/Classic, 2009
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #8
                Beholder out of Breeders' Cup Classic
                October 29, 2015


                LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) Beholder is out of the Breeders' Cup Classic after she bled Thursday following her morning gallop at Keeneland.

                Beholder was the early 3-1 second choice behind American Pharoah, who is running for the last time. Her absence reduces the field to nine and removes the horse expected to press the Triple Crown champion early in the $5 million race.

                Trainer Richard Mandella attributed the bleeding to the fever Beholder developed when she arrived in Kentucky last week. He said the 5-year-old mare will be fine, but it would be too risky to run her Saturday.

                ''If I put her under the pressure of the race, she might do some serious damage,'' Mandella said. ''There's obviously some irritated lung tissue there.''

                Beholder arrived in Kentucky on Oct. 20 and the next day developed a temperature. Within a day, she appeared back to normal.

                ''She's an aggressive mare and she was too worked up on the plane shipping here and made herself sick,'' Mandella said.

                Beholder is a two-time Eclipse Award winner who won the 2012 BC Juvenile Fillies and 2013 BC Distaff. She has a six-race winning streak for owner B. Wayne Hughes, who lives in Lexington.

                Beholder has 15 wins in 20 career starts, but she's never won outside her Southern California base. In two starts away from home, she finished fourth in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park in New York and second in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

                ''You could say we haven't had any luck shipping, but it's been something different every time,'' Mandella said.

                Her withdrawal leaves Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens without a mount in the Classic, a race he won two years ago with Mucho Macho Man.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #9
                  Breeders' Cup Distaff up for grabs
                  October 29, 2015


                  LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) Todd Pletcher is taking three shots at winning the Breeders' Cup Distaff, a race with a full field of 14 fillies and mares lacking a true superstar like past champions Beholder, Royal Delta, Untapable and Zenyatta.

                  The trainer will saddle Curalina, Got Lucky and Stopchargingmaria - all Grade 1 winners - in the $2 million race that highlights the opening day of the world championships Friday in its first visit to Keeneland.

                  The Distaff suffered a blow when Untapable was withdrawn earlier in the week because of a fever.

                  Beholder, who won two years ago, had bypassed the Distaff for a chance at taking on male horses in the $5 million Classic on Saturday. But she was waylaid Thursday when bleeding was discovered after a gallop.

                  So that leaves Pletcher's trio along with slight 4-1 favorite Wedding Toast and 9-2 second choice Sheer Drama among the fillies and mares chasing the prize in the 1 1/8-mile race.

                  Pletcher won the 2004 Distaff with Ashado and will be seeking his eighth Breeders' Cup career win.

                  A year ago, Beholder didn't defend her title in the Distaff after spiking a fever.

                  This time, she was done in again by health reasons.

                  Beholder was the early 3-1 second choice in the Classic behind American Pharoah, who is running for the last time before retiring. Her absence allowed Peace and War to move into the full field of 14, but it takes away the horse expected to press the Triple Crown champion early in the race.

                  Trainer Richard Mandella attributed the bleeding to the fever Beholder developed when she arrived in Kentucky last week. He said the 5-year-old mare will be fine, but it would be too risky to run her Saturday.

                  ''If I put her under the pressure of the race, she might do some serious damage,'' he said. ''There's obviously some irritated lung tissue there.''

                  Beholder arrived in Kentucky on Oct. 20 and the next day developed a temperature. Within a day, she appeared back to normal.

                  ''She's an aggressive mare and she was too worked up on the plane shipping here and made herself sick,'' Mandella said.

                  Beholder is a two-time Eclipse Award winner who won the 2012 BC Juvenile Fillies and 2013 BC Distaff. She has a six-race winning streak for owner B. Wayne Hughes, who lives in Lexington. Mandella said Hughes plans to race her next year.

                  Beholder has 15 wins in 20 career starts, but she's never won outside her Southern California base. In two starts away from home, she finished fourth in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park in New York and second in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

                  ''You could say we haven't had any luck shipping, but it's been something different every time,'' Mandella said.

                  Her withdrawal leaves Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens without a mount in the Classic, a race he won two years ago with Mucho Macho Man.

                  In Friday's other Breeders' Cup races:

                  -Europe-based Cymric is the early 7-2 favorite in the $1 million Juvenile Turf for trainer John Gosden.

                  -Liam's Map is the early even-money favorite for the $1 million Dirt Mile. Trained by Pletcher, the 4-year-old gray colt has just seven career starts, fewest of any of his 10 rivals.

                  -Harmonize brings a two-race winning streak into the $1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf as the 7-2 early favorite. Junior Alvarado will be aboard in the mile race for trainer Bill Mott.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Another strong European contingent in BC
                    October 29, 2015


                    LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) Golden Horn heads another strong contingent of European horses in the Breeders' Cup this weekend at Keeneland.

                    Foreign-based runners have won 10 times in the last three Cups, all held at Santa Anita in California. Keeneland hosts the two-day championships for the first time starting Friday.

                    The leading horse in Europe, Golden Horn, is the early 4-5 favorite in the $3 million Turf on Saturday.

                    The 3-year-colt arrives with impressive credentials, having already won the Irish Champion Stakes, the Epsom Derby and the Prix de'l Arc de Triomphe earlier this month.

                    The winner of 7-of-8 starts will try to become the first horse to capture the Arc and a Breeders' Cup race in the same year. So far, six have tried and failed.

                    Golden Horn breaks from the rail in the 1 1-2-mile race with Frankie Dettori, an 11-time Cup winner, aboard for trainer John Gosden in the colt's final start.

                    He will head off to stud duty in fine form, according to Gosden.

                    ''He probably has the most remarkable constitution of any horse I have trained,'' Gosden said. ''He shipped here weighing two kilograms more than he did when he flew to Paris to the Arc, and he put the weight back on very quickly when he got home from his exertions in the Arc.

                    ''He has grown physically in the course of his 3-year-old year and matured. Ideally, I would like to be coming to a race like this with a 4-year-old or a 5-year-old, but he's retiring and going to stud, so this is our only shot at it.''

                    Gleneagles will represent Europe in the $5 million Classic, North America's richest race.

                    He is a 20-1 outsider for his first start on dirt despite finishing a flashy 7 for 10 against top-level turf competition.

                    Most of the wagering in that race will gravitate to another 3-year-old - Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

                    ''He is a real champion and a real star, but whether or not he will adapt to this surface we will just have to see,'' Gleneagles' co-owner Michael Tabor said.

                    Ryan Moore will ride for trainer Aidan O'Brien.

                    Other top European contenders are:

                    Legatissimo (8-5) in the $2 million Filly & Mare Turf; Make Believe (3-1), Esoterique (7-2) and defending champion Karakontie (12-1) in the $2 million Mile; Cymric (7-2) and Hit It a Bomb (9-2) in the $1 million Juvenile Turf; and Illuminate (9-2) in the $1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      American Pharoah gallops at Keeneland
                      October 29, 2015


                      LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) Triple Crown champion American Pharoah had a spirited gallop at Keeneland in preparation for his final career start in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic.

                      The colt arrived Tuesday from California and walked around his barn Wednesday. On Thursday, he galloped on the training track's synthetic surface.

                      Trainer Bob Baffert had planned to use the main dirt track but changed his mind after several days of rain left a muddy surface. Several hundred fans watched the workout with exercise rider Georgie Alvarez on a cool, sunny morning.

                      Baffert said afterward that American Pharoah was ''happy'' and has been ''working well.'' American Pharoah is the 6-5 morning line favorite and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        BC - Classic
                        October 27, 2015



                        Distance: 1 ¼ miles
                        Purse: $5 million
                        Age: 3up
                        Date: Saturday, October 31st
                        Time: 5:35 p.m. EDT

                        The History

                        You knew this race was aptly named after the stretch run of the inaugural running when eventual winner Wild Again played bumper cars along with Slew o’ Gold and Gate Dancer. Ferdinand won the battle of the Kentucky Derby winners over Alysheba in 1987 before Alysheba claimed his own classic Victory the following year.

                        In the final chapter of their brief, yet intense rivalry, Sunday Silence held off the desperate surge of Easy Goer to win in 1989. Jerry Bailey won three in a row, starting in 1993 with Arcangues, the longest priced winner in Breeders’ Cup history and ending with the great Cigar in 1995 who capped a perfect 10-for-10 season with a fantastic score. Awesome Again split rivals in deep stretch to win a wild one in 1998 over Silver Charm and Swain.

                        Tiznow gutted out two of the greatest wins over a pair of tough Europeans, Giant’s Causeway and Sakhee, in 2000 and 2001 respectively, making his trainer Jay Robbins and the great Charlie Whittingham the only two time winners of the race.

                        Volponi blew up the tote board, then the Pick 6 scandal, in 2002 with his win at 43-1. Ghostzapper set the stakes record with a gate-to-wire, tour de force victory in 2004. Curlin capped his Horse of the Year campaign in 2007 with a win before finishing fourth as the sports leading money winner in 2008.

                        The great Zenyatta kept the undefeated dream alive with a remarkable last-to-first run in 2009 before falling a head short of Blame in the 2010 renewal and finishing her career with 19 wins from 20 starts. In 2013, Mucho Macho Man finally won a big one in a dramatic three-way photo over Will Take Charge and the Europe’s Declaration of War. Last year, Bayern made a left turn coming out of the gate before going gate-to-wire, holding off Toast of New York and California Chrome in another whale of a photo.

                        It’s the Classic indeed!!!!

                        Favorites: 8 for 31 (26%)
                        Shortest: $3.40 (Cigar, 1995)
                        Highest: $269.20 (Arcangues, 1993) *Highest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*
                        The champ is here? No. After going winless since last years’ Classic, Bayern has been retired.

                        The Best

                        American Pharoah will look to become the first horse in the history of the sport to win both the Triple Crown and the Classic as he caps off a nearly perfect season and historic career in America’s richest race.

                        After losing his career debut when fitted with blinkers, trainer Bob Baffert took the blinkers off and American Pharoah won eight straight, seven of them G1 races, including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, as well as the Haskell before trying the G1 Travers last out.

                        Jockey Victor Espinoza sent American Pharoah to the front from post 2 in the Travers. But unlike the easy lead he had in the Belmont, he was pressed through the middle panels of the 10 furlong event and folded his tent late to finish second.

                        He’ll look to become the eleventh sophomore to win the Classic in it’s’ 31 year history and the first to win what is being coined the Grand Slam.

                        Beholder will be looking to make some history of her own with a Classic score as she would join the great Zenyatta as the only other filly or mare to win this while also becoming THE only horse to ever win three different Breeders’ Cup races, already owning victories in the 2012 Juvenile Fillies and 2013 Distaff.

                        Trained by Richard Mandella and ridden by Gary Stevens, Beholder has been sensationally perfect in five starts this season. After an easy early season tally in the Santa Lucia and midseason win in the G3 Adoration, she turned things on at Del Mar when she won the G1 Clement Hirsch by seven lengths before taking on the boys in the G1 Pacific Classic.

                        In what may well be her most impressive effort to date in a career that’s seen her win nine G1s, Beholder sat several lengths off a fast early pace before unleashing a rally that put her a handful of lengths in front in the blink of an eye before finally hitting the line 8 ¼ lengths to the good of her nearest foe.

                        She was nonchalantly brilliant in the G1 Zenyatta last out, a race she won for the third year in a row, by over three lengths when Stevens never moved a muscle. She may have herself to beat as she a notoriously bad shipper and spiked a slight fever upon her arrival at Keeneland.

                        While American Pharoah and Beholder figure to dazzle as always on the front end with their speed and quick turn of foot, respectively, Honor Code figures to be the one to watch late with his breathtaking last to first rallies.

                        Trained by Shug McGaughey, it’s been a bit of a hit-and-miss season for Honor Code. In his first start of the year, the G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap going a mile, he overcame some trouble at the start to run down a stubborn, multiple G1 winner in Private Zone by a ½ length before inexplicably falling to fire in the G2 Alysheba at Churchill going 1 1/16 miles around two turns.

                        He cut back to a mile and once again ran down Private Zone when he seemingly sprouted wings through the stretch at Belmont in the historic Metropolitan Handicap, flying home to win by over three lengths. He came with an equally impressive late rally when he ran down Liam’s Map in the G1 Whitney at Saratoga, squashing the notion that he was strictly a one turn wonder.

                        After a two month break, McGaughey made the decision to cut back to a mile once again in the G2 Kelso on Super Saturday at Belmont as opposed to trying 10 furlongs for the first time in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Over a sloppy track, Honor Code never really got rolling after brushing the gate at the start and settled for third behind a loose-on-the-lead Appealing Tale. Javier Castellano will take his usual seat aboard Honor Code.

                        The Rest

                        Tonalist tries his hand at the Classic for the second straight year having finished fifth last season, a season where he won three graded stakes, including the Belmont and Jockey Club Gold Cup against older.

                        This year, things got off to a fantastic start, as he won the G3 Westchester in sharp fashion. He finished second in the Met Mile despite a bit of an awkward trip. Trips have been the story for Tonalist in 2015 and he’ couldn’t have gotten a worse one in the G2 Suburban when he rushed up between horses into strong early fractions before settling for second as the 2-5 favorite. He found himself inexplicably behind Honor Code going down the backside of the Whitney and closed along the inside for the show money before things came together at Belmont last out when he won his second Jockey Club Gold Cup by almost five lengths in the slop. John Velazquez rides.

                        Keen Ice posted what many considered to be a monumental upset when last seen in August at Saratoga when he ran down American Pharoah in the final strides of the Midsummer Derby to earn just his second win in 11 tries.

                        Trained by Dale Romans, Keen Ice was on the Triple Crown trail earlier this year and began to show signs of life with a third place finish in the Belmont. Following a two month respite, he closed nicely to finish second in the Haskell, a race that gave his connections hope that the 1 ¼ mile distance of the Travers would be to their benefit. They were right as he was a touch closer in the early running before getting the money late. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for the first time.

                        It’s been a rollercoaster season for Kiaran McLaughlin and his charge, Frosted. Following a mid-race pace collapse in the G2 Fountain of Youth, a minor throat surgery was performed, his blinkers were tinkered with and a rider change to Joel Rosario was made. Frosted has been a consistent, consummate pro since. He on the G1 Wood Memorial before a fourth place finish in the Derby then finished second in the Test of the Champion.

                        After a two month break, Frosted finished second in the G2 Jim Dandy then pressed American Pharoah on the front end in the Travers before settling for third. Back to his off-the-pace style last out, he easily captured the G2 Pennsylvania Derby at Parx.

                        Smooth Roller made his graded stakes debut a winning won last out, sitting just off the pace set by 2014 Classic winner Bayern to win the G1 Awesome Again by over five lengths under Tyler Baze for trainer Victor Garcia. In fact, Smooth Roller and Baze have won all three starts together with his lone blemish coming in a minor stakes at Del Mar too starts back when he acted up pre-race and stumbled at the start without Baze.

                        Gleneagles ships across the pond for Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore and makes his first start on dirt and beyond one mile. A three-year-old son of Galileo, Gleneagles won three consecutive races to start his season – G1 2000 Guineas, G1 Irish 2000 Guineas & G1 St James’s Palace – all at a mile, before returning to run sixth just two weeks prior to the Classic in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II stakes at Ascot in his first tilt against older horses. Ryan Moore has the call.

                        New York bred Effinex has had a solid season, winning three of his six starts including a pair of graded stakes for Jimmy Jerkens. After winning his first start of the year off of a three month layoff against allowance/ optional claiming foes, he closed to take the G3 Excelsior before dental issues forced him to be pulled up in the G2 Brooklyn. He came from far back to take the aforementioned Suburban over Tonalist before finishing fourth in the G1 Woodward and third last out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Mike Smith will
                        ride for the first time.

                        Hard Aces took advantage of wicked early fractions to come flying through the lane to win the G1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita this past summer at this trip for trainer John Sadler, who took over his conditioning earlier this year. In his last two however, he’s been nowhere to be found in both the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again without an apparent excuse. Joe Talamo has the mount, taking over for regular rider Victor Espinoza.

                        The Strategy

                        Can American Pharoah get 10 furlongs off of a two month layoff while trying older for the first time? Can Beholder repeat that Pacific Classic performance and stamp herself a true legend with a win outside of SoCal? Will Honor Code come storming down the center of the course to get them both? Can Tonalist win a big one outside of Belmont Park? Answer those questions and you might have the winner. My answers are no, no, yes and yes and I STILL don’t know who is going to win it. I think I do, but don’t truly know for sure.

                        The Bomb

                        Frosted always seems to run his race and I’ve always felt there was a big one with his name on it. Maybe this is it. I’ll take a flyer at 12-1 or better.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          BC - Turf Sprint
                          October 27, 2015



                          Distance: 5 ½ furlongs
                          Purse: $1 million
                          Age: 3up
                          Date: Saturday, October 31st
                          Time: 12:45 p.m. EDT

                          The History

                          Run down the hill going 6 ½ furlongs in its first two runnings before going to this distance in 2011. Mizdirection became the first female to win the event in 2012 and first to repeat in 2013, when there was a dead-heat for second between Tightend Touchdown and Reneesgotzip.

                          Favorites: 3 for 7 (43%)
                          Shortest: $6.60 (Regally Ready, 2011)
                          Highest: $75.00 (Desert Code, 2008)
                          U.S based: 7/Foreign based: 0
                          The champ is here? Yes. Bobby’s Kitten is looking to join the mare Mizdirection as the only repeat winner of this event.

                          The Best

                          Lady Shipman takes on the boys for the first time in her career after getting run down by Ageless in the Buffalo Trace last out in her local debut. Prior to that defeat, Lady Shipman had won four stakes in a row at Monmouth and Saratoga, all at this distance for trainer Kathleen O’Connell.

                          Though he’s run just four times on the turf, Pure Sensation has made them all count as he’s won three of them, his lone defeat coming when stretched out to a mile by Christophe Clement in the summer of 2014 at Saratoga after winning a sprint stakes. In his two starts this year, he won an allowance/optional claimer at the Spa at this trip and the G3 Turf Monster at Parx by a nose after dueling on the lead throughout.

                          Undrafted has won only once from four tries this season but he did so in style taking the G1 Diamond Jubilee at the prestigious Royal Ascot meet in England back in June. After finishing a hard charging third in this last year, he started this season with a third place finish in the G3 Shakertown over the course at this distance then finished second in the G3 Turf Sprint at Churchill. Last out, in his first start since his big score, Undrafted finished second going a mile in a stakes at Kentucky Downs as the 7-5 favorite for Wesley Ward.

                          Defending champion Bobby’s Kitten stormed down the hill at Santa Anita last year with a last to first run when the race was run at 6 ½ furlongs. He’s never raced at this short of a distance and hasn’t looked sharp in either of his starts this year when he was off the board as the 6-5 favorite in the G2 Play King in August at Woodbine or last out in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile over this course for Chad Brown.

                          The Rest


                          Green Mask is winless in all four starts for Ward this year but did some globetrotting of his own when he finished third in the G1 Al Quoz in Dubai on the World Cup undercard. He finished fourth by less than a length in his first start off of a five month layoff in a turf sprint stakes at Kentucky Downs in his latest.

                          Mongolian Saturday was on the other end of the Turf Monster photo after he dueled with Pure Sensation from the opening bell for Enebish Ganbat. He’s hit the board in all nine starts this season, including a pair of victories, and was second in the off-the-turf G3 Woodford at Keeneland in his last start.

                          No Silent ships in from California on a three race win streak for Gary Mandella. After winning a $50K claimer and allowance/optional claimer at Del Mar this past summer, he stepped up to win the G3 Eddie D at Santa Anita.

                          Like No Silent, Tom Albertrani’s Ready for Rye comes into this on a three race win streak. After taking an allowance/optional claimer and the Quick Call at Saratoga in his lone two turf efforts, he won the off-the-turf Allied Forces by almost five lengths last out in the mud at Belmont.

                          The speedy Something Extra never made the lead in this event at Santa Anita last season but started this year with a front running tally in the Shakertown. Winless in five tries since, he did finish third in the Turf Sprint and second in the G3 Jaipur at Belmont for Gail Cox.

                          Ward’s third runner, The Great War, was briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail at the start of the season but missed some time after bleeding in a stakes this past winter. When he returned five months later, he finished second in the Quick Call then missed by just a head in the G2 Nearctic at Woodbine.

                          Joe Franklin seeks his third straight since being switched to the turf by David Jacobsen, who claimed him for $50K in late May. Another front runner, he’s won a pair of allowance/optional claimers at Monmouth and Belmont in virtual gate-to-wire fashion.

                          Marchman beat just one in this event last year and has raced just twice since, in an allowance/optional claimer where he was second and a failed attempt to stretch out in the G2 Del Mar Mile last out. He will be looking for his first win in well over a year but is being reunited with his former trainer, Bret Calhoun.

                          Stacked Deck, third most recently in the Woodford, has won just two of his eight turf starts and has never run this short on turf. He won the G3 Bold Venture two back on the Woodbine Polytrack.

                          Jimmy Bouncer finished third in the Eddie Read after tiring in the Del Mar Mile for Doug O’Neill. Earlier this summer he won his turf debut going five furlongs in his first start off of a nearly nine month layoff.

                          Rumble Doll, an allowance winner against fillies and mares at Belmont last out for Robert Falcone, Jr. and Jim Cassidy’s minor stakes winner Holy Lute are also eligible.

                          The Strategy

                          Keep an eye on the course condition not just for the individual contenders but for their running styles. A firm course would be far more conducive to speed; a course with some give to it would help the closers. Either way, I can’t see taking a stand in here so you’re going to have to spread no matter how it shakes out.

                          The Bomb

                          No Silent has done little wrong in his last three and has Hall of Famer Gary Stevens in the saddle. You should get 12-1 or better.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            BC - F&M Turf
                            October 27, 2015



                            Distance: 1 3/16 miles (T)
                            Purse: $2 million
                            Age: 3up (f&m)
                            Date: Saturday, October 31st
                            Time: 2:10 p.m. EDT

                            The History

                            Ouija Board won it in 2004 and 2006 and was stopped by Intercontinental in 2005 when she was second. Her trainer Ed Dunlop and the late Bobby Frankel each won two runnings while Kieran Fallon and Jerry Bailey have each ridden a pair of winners.

                            Favorites: 5 for 16 (31%)
                            Shortest: $3.80 (Ouija Board, 2004)
                            Highest: $94.00 (Shared Account, 2010)
                            U.S based: 10/Foreign based: 6
                            The champ is here? No. Dayatthespa was retired after her gate-to-wire win last year.

                            The Best

                            Sophomore filly Legatissimo ships over for David Wachman and Coolmore sporting three G1 wins this season, including the Nassau and Matron Stakes against older, in her last two. Earlier this season she also won the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket before missing by a nose in the G1 Epsom Oaks.

                            Miss France has finished second in her last four starts in Europe for the powerful Andre Fabre. Winner of the 1000 Guineas last year, her last tally, she will be making her third start since closing out last season against older fillies and mares in G1 events 11 months ago.

                            Secret Gesture will be taking her second shot at this event off a fifth place finish last season. She started this season with a win in the G2 Middleton then finished fourth in the G1 Pretty Polly in June. She returned stateside to hit the line first in the G1 Beverly D. but was disqualified from the win and placed third for drifting through the lane. This will be her first start in 11 weeks.

                            The six-year-old Stephanie’s Kitten has managed to win a G1 in four of her five seasons on the track, including last out in the Flower Bowl at Belmont. She’s two for five overall this season since finishing a fast closing second to the loose-on-the-lead Dayatthespa in this last year for Chad Brown.

                            Dacita will return from a nine week break having won her U.S. debut for Chad Brown in the G2 Ballston Spa on the Travers undercard at Saratoga over multiple G1 winner Tepin. The Ballston Spa was her first start in nine months. She won seven of nine in her native Chile, including her lone start going 10 furlongs.

                            The Rest

                            Hard Not to Like has won two G1 races this year when she got up in the final strides of the Gamely at Santa Anita and Diana at Saratoga before an off the board run in the G1 Rodeo Drive as the 8-5 favorite for Christophe Clement. She won the G1 Jenny Wiley over this course in April of 2014, a race she finished third in this season.

                            Photo Call won her U.S. debut for Graham Motion last fall over this course and rides a two race win streak into this. A win in the G3 Violet at Monmouth two back was followed by her first G1 win in the Rodeo Drive last out.

                            Queen’s Jewel won the first three starts of her career for Freddie Head going a distance of ground, including the G1 Prix Saint-Alary against three-year-olds but failed to menace in a pair of G1s since.

                            Sentiero Italia won the G2 Lake Placid at Saratoga and G2 Sands Point at Belmont before moving too late when third in the G1 QEII over this course in her latest for Kiaran McLaughlin. This will be her first try against older stakes company.

                            Sharla Rae has won just two of eight for Doug O’Neill this season but one of those tallies came two back in the G1 Del Mar Oaks. She was an even fifth in the Rodeo Drive, her first start against elders.

                            Watsdachances was a very lucky recipient of a G1 when Secret Gesture was taken down in the Beverly D. when she was elevated to victory for Brown.

                            Bawina is winless in her last four starts since taking the G2 Prix du Muguet for Carlos Laffon-Parias. She missed by just a neck when second in the G1 Prix Jean Romanet two back.

                            Also eligible Elektrum didn’t travel from California for John Sadler while Talmada was second in the G1 E.P. Taylor for Roger Varian at Woodbine in her latest.

                            The Strategy

                            As is the case almost every year, this boils down to how good the Euros are.

                            The Bomb

                            Sentiero Italia could have been prepping for this by taking a spin over the course last out. I think she’ll appreciate the added distance as well and should be north of 20-1.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                            • #15
                              BC - Filly & Mare Sprint
                              October 27, 2015



                              Distance: 7 furlongs
                              Purse: $1 million
                              Age: 3up (f&m)
                              Date: Saturday, October 31st
                              Time: 1:25 p.m. EDT

                              The History

                              Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn’t configured for the intended distance. Groupie Doll became the first back to back winner in 2013.

                              Favorites: 3 for 8 (37%)
                              Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
                              Highest: $42.40 (Musical Romance, 2011)
                              The champ is here? Yes. Like Groupie Doll in 2013, Judy the Beauty will be looking for back-to-back scores.

                              The Best

                              Cavorting comes in on a three race win streak for Kiaran McLaughlin but will be facing older for the first time. After starting her career with pair of sprint tallies, Cavorting ended last season and started this one with a pair of dismal efforts going a mile.

                              McLaughlin quickly turned her back in distance and made her into an accomplished sprinting closer, with scores in the Jersey Girl, G1 Test and G2 Prioress against sophomore fillies, all coming with a powerful late kick. Overall, she has won all five of her starts going this seven furlong trip or less with her biggest win coming at this distance.

                              Defending champ Judy the Beauty is winless since her head victory in this event last season but has raced just three times. She started the year with a gutsy second place finish by a neck in the G1 Humana Distaff on Derby Day, her first start in six months. She finished a dull third nearly three months later in the G2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga before coming off of a two month layoff to finish third going six furlongs in the G2 TCA over this course when she raced along the rail throughout for Wesley Ward.

                              La Verdad wheels back in a week for trainer Linda Rice, who, as it turns out, used the Iroquois against New York breds as a prep/experiment for this spot. A perfect six for six this season, La Verdad won races like the G2 Distaff, G3 Vagrancy, G2 Honorable Miss and G2 Gallant Bloom last out, in gate-to-wire fashion. But in the Iroquois, she rated off the early pace before making the lead on the far turn to win by open lengths.

                              Dame Dorothy has been the model of consistency throughout her career and won her lone G1 when nailing Judy the Beauty on the money in the Humana. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Dame Dorothy has won four of her five starts at this distance with her lone blemish coming at Saratoga where she didn’t run a step when next to last in the G1 Ballerina. So far, it’s been her only off-the-board finish in 11 tries.

                              The Rest

                              Taris returns to the scene of her biggest tally, having won the G2 Raven Run here at this distance last fall by nine lengths. Purchased by Coolmore and turned over to Simon Callaghan, she just missed in the G1 La Brea before returning from a seven month rest to win the G3 Rancho Bernardo at Del Mar. Last out, she dueled herself into the defeat against just four others in the G3 L.A. Woman at Santa Anita.

                              The speedy Super Majesty is a nose short of being a perfect four for four in her short career. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, she won the first two starts of her career at Santa Anita and Los Alamitos by daylight before finding a mile to be a bit too far in her only taste of defeat. Last out she went gate-to-wire in the G3 Dogwood at Churchill.

                              Merry Meadow lost the first 10 starts of her career. Since then, she’s won nine of 19, including four graded stakes and is searching for that elusive G1 for Mark Hennig in here. Last in the Ballerina in her latest, Merry Meadow has done some of her best work off of layoffs in the past, including wins in the G3 Hurricane Bertie and G2 Princess Rooney this season.

                              Multiple G1 winner Artemis Agrotera will be making her first start since failing to fire at 9-2 in this event last year for trainer Mike Hushion, who feels this filly is training lights out and deserves the chance to try this ambitious spot.

                              Last year at this time, you could have claimed Fioretti for $50K out of a two lifetime claimer. Now, she’s a multiple stakes winner for Anthony Hamilton, Jr. and got her first graded score when coming from off the pace to win the TCA last out.

                              Kiss to Remember is another former stakes winner turned claimer who hasn’t missed the board in her four tries since being transferred to trainer Marty Wilson this past summer. Third in the Princess Rooney, Kiss to Remember won and placed in minor stakes at Gulfstream and missed by just a length in the Ballerina when settling for place money.

                              Room for Me has proven to be a solid claim for David Jacobsen, who took her for $12,500 out of her seasonal bow at Santa Anita. She’s gone on to win four of eight since for close to $300K, finished a half-length behind La Verdad in the Vagrancy and third in the Ballerina.

                              Stonetastic set the pace in this event last year before tiring to finish fourth for Kelly Breen and has run just twice this season. After missing by a neck to Ballerina winner Unbridled Forever in a minor stakes at Saratoga, Stonetastic romped by over 15 lengths in an allowance/optional claimer at Parx in her latest.

                              Wavell Avenue is another former claimer seeking graded stakes glory for Chad Brown while coming off a solid runner-up finish to La Verdad in the Gallant Bloom in her latest.

                              Former graded stakes winner Sweet Whiskey has just one win in nearly two years for Pletcher, an allowance/optional claiming tally at Saratoga three starts back. She finished fifth most recently in the TCA.

                              The Strategy

                              The three big questions in this race are whether or not Judy the Beauty has anything left at the age of six, can La Verdad come back in just a week and can Cavorting handle her elders. If the answer to any of those questions is “yes” than one of them should win. If the answer is “no” then anything, literally, anything, can happen in here. It’s that wide open.

                              The Bomb

                              Mike Hushion is perennially one of the highest percentage trainers on the NYRA circuit and often leans toward the conservative side when it comes to his horses. For him to try this with Artemis Agrotera speaks volumes. She’s for me at 12-1 or better.
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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