More of you should take advantage of NFL Teasers

[bryce]

I know you hate hearing all the people here who rip on locals bryce but one thing you can't change is the bad experiences people have had with them or with an offshore for that matter. You have been very lucky by the sounds of it but many have not.

Point taken buddy!

[frankb03]

Mathematically teasers are an additional house advantage over ATS bets. If a bettor blindly bet every favorite from -1 to -10 the bettor would win 48.8% of the games. If the same bettor played those same favorites in a teaser the percentage for covering the spread is 68.5%. However, since the bettor has to play two games the win percentage of all favorites is 46.9% (68.5% x 68.5%).

All dogs (+1 thru +10) cover the spread 51.2% of the games. In a teaser they cover 69.4% or a teaser bet win percentage of 48.2% (69.4% x 69.4).

While dogs historically are a better ATS bet than favorites they are actually a worse teaser bet. So the proverbial dogs are barking are not barking louder. Playing favorites in a teaser favors the house by 1.9% (48.8% - 46.9%). Playing dogs the advantage jumps to 3% (51.2% - 48.2%)

Some betting lines do favor the player. Over the years Vegas has minimized that advantage. As an example, a favorite of -8.5 has a huge player advantage. They cover in a teaser 77.7% of the games. Vegas have severely limited the number of games with the line at 8.5. Last season there was only 1 game with a line of 8.5. A favorite of -8 is another line with a huge player advantage but again there’s a limited number of games. On average there are only 7 or 8 games per season.

Favorite of -7 and -7.5 are another line that favors the player, 53.7% and 53.6% respectfully. Again, Vegas has limited setting the line at -7 fearing the teaser bet. Over the last six seasons on average only 12 games per season have a line of 7.

On the dog side only two lines favor the bettor, +4.5 and +5, 55.8% and 54.2% respectfully.

I believe there’s a misconception that many losing ATS bets would cover in a teaser. That’s not reality. If fact approximately only 1/3 of losing ATS bets would cover in a teaser. The misconception probably arises from remembering and lamenting over the close loses and quickly forgetting about the blowout losses.

My analysis was done using 6 point teasers. I chose 6 point teasers because the odds are the same as ATS at -110. I’m certain the house would hold a bigger advantage with 7 point teasers since the bettor lays -130 instead of -110. At -130 the breakeven increases to 56.5%. I highly doubt the extra point between a 6 and 7 point teaser comes into play often enough to warrant the increase from 110 to 130. I believe the number seven in a 7 point teaser has a psychological effect on the football bettor.

Can a bettor win playing teasers? Like an ATS bettor one can win playing teasers. But it’s the exception. Not the rule. I’m strictly pointing out that the odds favor Vegas more than a straight ATS bet. Is it a suckers bet? Let each individual decide.

[griffey_mojo]

Mathematically teasers are an additional house advantage over ATS bets. If a bettor blindly bet every favorite from -1 to -10 the bettor would win 48.8% of the games. If the same bettor played those same favorites in a teaser the percentage for covering the spread is 68.5%. However, since the bettor has to play two games the win percentage of all favorites is 46.9% (68.5% x 68.5%).

All dogs (+1 thru +10) cover the spread 51.2% of the games. In a teaser they cover 69.4% or a teaser bet win percentage of 48.2% (69.4% x 69.4).

While dogs historically are a better ATS bet than favorites they are actually a worse teaser bet. So the proverbial dogs are barking are not barking louder. Playing favorites in a teaser favors the house by 1.9% (48.8% - 46.9%). Playing dogs the advantage jumps to 3% (51.2% - 48.2%)

Some betting lines do favor the player. Over the years Vegas has minimized that advantage. As an example, a favorite of -8.5 has a huge player advantage. They cover in a teaser 77.7% of the games. Vegas have severely limited the number of games with the line at 8.5. Last season there was only 1 game with a line of 8.5. A favorite of -8 is another line with a huge player advantage but again there’s a limited number of games. On average there are only 7 or 8 games per season.

Favorite of -7 and -7.5 are another line that favors the player, 53.7% and 53.6% respectfully. Again, Vegas has limited setting the line at -7 fearing the teaser bet. Over the last six seasons on average only 12 games per season have a line of 7.

On the dog side only two lines favor the bettor, +4.5 and +5, 55.8% and 54.2% respectfully.

I believe there’s a misconception that many losing ATS bets would cover in a teaser. That’s not reality. If fact approximately only 1/3 of losing ATS bets would cover in a teaser. The misconception probably arises from remembering and lamenting over the close loses and quickly forgetting about the blowout losses.

My analysis was done using 6 point teasers. I chose 6 point teasers because the odds are the same as ATS at -110. I’m certain the house would hold a bigger advantage with 7 point teasers since the bettor lays -130 instead of -110. At -130 the breakeven increases to 56.5%. I highly doubt the extra point between a 6 and 7 point teaser comes into play often enough to warrant the increase from 110 to 130. I believe the number seven in a 7 point teaser has a psychological effect on the football bettor.

Can a bettor win playing teasers? Like an ATS bettor one can win playing teasers. But it’s the exception. Not the rule. I’m strictly pointing out that the odds favor Vegas more than a straight ATS bet. Is it a suckers bet? Let each individual decide.

Great input Frank. It's always great to see facts back up a side of a discussion.

[frankb03]

Yes, a few years ago i did have a bad year with teasers. It happens to straight players too frank. Nobody wins every year and sometimes things change and so do numbers on a daily basis if you feed them in a computer. I think the NFL is more competitive now than it has EVER been and that also plays in to teasers.

Like i said, many have always hated them and they always will. I'm not trying to change you or that. Just throwing out the thought and option to people. Just like there is a winning side to every wager, there is a winning teaser on every game too, and sometimes 2 of them.

As far as MNF goes, did i say it was the norm? I believe i said every team that played on MNF this year has covered a 7 point teaser. That's just a fact frank and when that happens, does -110 or -130 matter? I don't think so because you won't be paying it on teasers you hit.

I get you are all about numbers and not playing the RL in bases with home teams because they get 1 less at bat and such but many others like exotics, like teasers and sometimes, they too can be very profitable!

Most bets can be profitable. The problem is most bettors lose. I believe 98% of sports bettors lose. Playing 'exotic' bets that increase the house odds escalate the loses.


re: MNF

What you said is:

There have been 5 MNF games so far this season, involving 10 teams. ALL 10 Teams have covered a 7 point teaser. Every single team that has played on MNF this season, has covered.

AND

18 of 20 on MNF guys. Seriously, think about that for a minute!

You're a mod here. For some your opinion is respected. Your posts inferred it's a sure thing. In some ways it came across like something a sports service would spew.

[wayne1218]

Its in all sports discussion frank for a reason, so we can all give our opinions and discuss. I see some who like them and say they do well and some like you who do not. I could care less about whatever you said about being a mod. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything

Raven posted a pretty good link too that does show the GOOD side to teasers so to say it doesn't exist, that would be close minded. People can and do make money on them.

[wayne1218]

I inferferred nothing frank. I gave facts too and the fact is 18 of 20 have covered. People can choose to do what they want with that info but one thing is for sure, it certainly was not made up numbers. They are what they are.

I would love you to find me another line in sports that gives the possibility of both sides winning and a possibily of a can't lose situation. Straight wagers, nope. Best you can do is a push or a win loss. There is no other wager in sports where there are 2 teams and a spread that allows the can't lose possibility except teasers and as far as mnf goes, it has happened 60% of the time this year, again, just a fact, whether you like them or not.

[frankb03]

No straight wager will ever hit on both sides but teasers do often

In a 6 point teaser both sides cover
ATS 35%
OU 32.8
ATS & OU 10.7

7 point teaser
ATS 41.3%
OU 38.5
ATS & OU 15

This season there's been an abnormally high amount of game with both teams covering in a 6 point teaser with 45%. Over the last 6 seasons the number of games when both teams cover a 6 point ATS tease has remained pretty constant. There was a spike in 2005 to 40.4%. In 2008 the number fell to 28%.

7 point teasers this season have both teams covering 56.3% of the games. It's safe to say the public has been cleaning up and Vegas has been taking a beating. That's the reason for Wayne's post. Most teaser bettors are profiting. The question remains will the trend continue. Since 2002 the 7 point teaser has stayed pretty constant with both teams covering about 40.8% of the games.

[frankb03]

MNF

Both teams cover ATS in a 7 teaser 36.2% Significantly lower than all games as a whole. In OU both bets cover 41.8% in a 7 point teaser.

[wayne1218]

You give numbers frank with no time frame for mnf. I was pretty specific in talking about this season. Rules and lots of things change over the years.

[wayne1218]

The fact remains if you like teasers, you will continue to and if you don't you don't. I was pretty specific talking about the 1st 5 weeks of this season and more specifically mnf. If you like the article raven posted, you can lean on that. If you don't like them than you can lean on franks numbers. As always it is every gamblers own money and choice.

[wayne1218]

I would love you to find me another line in sports that gives the possibility of both sides winning and a possibily of a can't lose situation. Straight wagers, nope. Best you can do is a push or a win loss. There is no other wager in sports where there are 2 teams and a spread that allows the can't lose possibility except teasers and as far as mnf goes, it has happened 60% of the time this year, again, just a fact, whether you like them or not.

I would love to hear you debate this though frank. There is no counterpoint or other wager that allows it as far as I know.

[frankb03]

I would love to hear you debate this though frank. There is no counterpoint or other wager that allows it as far as I know.

so far this season is an anomaly. It's not the rule. That's the problem You're spewing this 60% as if it occurs every season.
It doesn't. As I mentioned above in more than 20 years 41.3% of ATS 7 point teasers have both teams covering. In the last 9+ seasons that number has dropped slightly to 40.8%

You're 60% number is even inaccurate. So far this season it's 56%

[frankb03]

I would love you to find me another line in sports that gives the possibility of both sides winning and a possibily of a can't lose situation.

Do you or any sports bettor know ahead of time which of the 41% of the games will end with both teams covering a 7 point teaser?

NO

Everyone knows games with a teaser bet there's game with both teams covering the teaser. Unfortunately, like ATS betting we don't know which games those will occur.

[wayne1218]

so far this season is an anomaly. It's not the rule. That's the problem You're spewing this 60% as if it occurs every season.
It doesn't. As I mentioned above in more than 20 years 41.3% of ATS 7 point teasers have both teams covering. In the last 9+ seasons that number has dropped slightly to 40.8%

You're 60% number is even inaccurate. So far this season it's 56%

I can say it 5 times or 1000 just for you frank because the only person spewing anything here is you with your assumptions frank. Nowhere and ill repeat, NOWHERE, did I talk about any other season or and other mnf games than the 5 I mentioned. You can twist the words all you want but I never mentioned any other time frame. Keep trying though frank because until you can quote a place in this thread where I have, you are 1 thing, WRONG!

And last I checked 3 of 5 is 60% frank. You need to check your numbers again.

[frankb03]

You give numbers frank with no time frame for mnf. I was pretty specific in talking about this season. Rules and lots of things change over the years.

The MNF stats I mentioned above are since 1989.

Since 2002 33.5% of MNF games have both teams covering a 7 point tease

Since 2005 38.5

2010 38.9%
2009 & 2008 47%
2007 17.6%
2006 27.7%
2005 41.2%