More of you should take advantage of NFL Teasers

[roccodean]

Teaser Betting Strategy and Tips

regarding this research, it states that a typical 6 point/2 team teaster individual leg must win 72.37% of the time on average for the teaser bet to have neutral (break even) expectation. It's tough to hit 57% percent of your plays, even if you move the line 6 points in your favor it would be tough to hit 72.37% of your plays.

[frankb03]

I've heard people say for years that these are "Sucker" bets and i IMO think the only suckers are the ones who refuse to play them.

Call it what you want. A bad bet. A sucker bet. They're the same. Teaser odds favor the house more than a regular ATS bet. I don't have the time now. Later, I'll post the data as to the reasons it's a bad bet.

Mix it up with 7 or 10 pointers. You will be amazed at how it works for you (IMO). I saw many guys here Sunday that were miserable with how many games ended and if you look at all their plays, almost every team they played would have covered on a teaser.

If (and that's a big if) a bettor plays a teaser than play a 6 point teaser. A 6 point teaser is -110. A 7 point teaser is -130. At 110 the better has to hit 52.4% to breakeven. At 130 breakeven jumps to 56.5%

There have been 5 MNF games so far this season, involving 10 teams. ALL 10 Teams have covered a 7 point teaser. Every single team that has played on MNF this season, has covered. In 3 of the 5 games, you couldn't lose if you played either side and either total O/U. If you add the 10 teams that played in 5 games with the 10 O/U options in those same games, it totals 20 teaser options, and 18 of 20 have covered a 7 point teaser.

That means if you played a 7 pt. teaser on every single MNF game this year, you would have been guaranteed 3 of 5 winners and most likely more if you picked the right O/U side in either or both of the remaining 2.

18 of 20 on MNF guys. Seriously, think about that for a minute!

You're going to take 5 MNF games and treat them as the norm? All bets covering is an aberration. It's not the norm. It's OK if a bettor wants to ride it while it's "hot".

I rarely come on BC anymore. I haven't followed Wayne's selections in a few years. A few years ago I recall you taking a beating with your posted teasers. There were many off-site discussions with old members how you only played the Favorite and Overs in your teasers.

A 4 week run of successful teaser capping doesn't constitute a post on why it's not a suckers bet.

[frankb03]

regarding this research, it states that a typical 6 point/2 team teaster individual leg must win 72.37% of the time on average for the teaser bet to have neutral (break even) expectation. It's tough to hit 57% percent of your plays, even if you move the line 6 points in your favor it would be tough to hit 72.37% of your plays.

at 56% breakeven a teaser bettor has to hit better than 75% of his selected games (75% * 75% = 56.25%) for a profit.

[wayne1218]

Call it what you want. A bad bet. A sucker bet. They're the same. Teaser odds favor the house more than a regular ATS bet. I don't have the time now. Later, I'll post the data as to the reasons it's a bad bet.






If (and that's a big if) a bettor plays a teaser than play a 6 point teaser. A 6 point teaser is -110. A 7 point teaser is -130. At 110 the better has to hit 52.4% to breakeven. At 130 breakeven jumps to 56.5%




You're going to take 5 MNF games and treat them as the norm? All bets covering is an aberration. It's not the norm. It's OK if a bettor wants to ride it while it's "hot".

I rarely come on BC anymore. I haven't followed Wayne's selections in a few years. A few years ago I recall you taking a beating with your posted teasers. There were many off-site discussions with old members how you only played the Favorite and Overs in your teasers.

A 4 week run of successful teaser capping doesn't constitute a post on why it's not a suckers bet.

Yes, a few years ago i did have a bad year with teasers. It happens to straight players too frank. Nobody wins every year and sometimes things change and so do numbers on a daily basis if you feed them in a computer. I think the NFL is more competitive now than it has EVER been and that also plays in to teasers.

Like i said, many have always hated them and they always will. I'm not trying to change you or that. Just throwing out the thought and option to people. Just like there is a winning side to every wager, there is a winning teaser on every game too, and sometimes 2 of them.

As far as MNF goes, did i say it was the norm? I believe i said every team that played on MNF this year has covered a 7 point teaser. That's just a fact frank and when that happens, does -110 or -130 matter? I don't think so because you won't be paying it on teasers you hit.

I get you are all about numbers and not playing the RL in bases with home teams because they get 1 less at bat and such but many others like exotics, like teasers and sometimes, they too can be very profitable!

[bryce]

The biggest reason why I fuckin HATE locals. They just change rules on the fly. If something isn't going well for them, they stop taking it.

Then you deal with shitty locals... Said it before if a local doesn't have a bunch of cash don't deal with them... Heard so many horror stories on here about locals so I am glad I have one that is solid... Locals are not that bad.. Well I guess they can be but not in my town.

[bryce]

I play three team 10 point teases in the NFL and usually tease the dog up or take the over... 10 points is a ton and do well with them. I do jot tease college but maybe I should but more times than not I don't need too!

[wayne1218]

I have had probably 25-30 that i have used in the last 25 years bryce and not a single one of them ran it just like vegas. There was always something stupid that each one did to give themself an advantage that vegas doesn't do. As far as the money goes, every one of them were filthy rich and didn't work. They got rich from fuckin people. Now i'm not saying it is like that with you or anybody else but i've never found one that isn't

[ogarza]

The biggest reason why I fuckin HATE locals. They just change rules on the fly. If something isn't going well for them, they stop taking it.

Yea, their book their rules I guess...he changes lines as well, but that works in my favor a lot since I like betting dogs, I get extra points for free. My guy in mid 60s n will be calling it quits soon, but he a real nice standup guy...never an issue collecting, we meet at local bar n he picks up the tab, win or lose.

[bryce]

I have had probably 25-30 that i have used in the last 25 years bryce and not a single one of them ran it just like vegas. There was always something stupid that each one did to give themself an advantage that vegas doesn't do. As far as the money goes, every one of them were filthy rich and didn't work. They got rich from fuckin people. Now i'm not saying it is like that with you or anybody else but i've never found one that isn't

Give me your number if he does something wrong post it on this board... Sorry just tired of people bad mouthing locals... Find a good guy... Not a dud...I know a bunch and will back my big mouth up

[wayne1218]

Post my number on this board? Huh?? I havnt used a local in over a year bryce because I can't find one who isn't a dud.

[wayne1218]

and by dud I mean one who doesn't use ALL of Vegas rules

[bryce]

and by dud I mean one who doesn't use ALL of Vegas rules

I know what you mean.. I was sort of joking about the number but I guess there's a bunch of shitty locals out there..
My guy has always said he doesn't have to cheat to win!

With all the action going offshore I wonder why locals haven't cleaned up their act.

[wayne1218]

I know locals who lost a ton of guys to offshore bryce and it was mainly because they refused to offer what the offshore did. Now they are getting people back with the offshores no longer taking u.s. customers. People bitch about them but they want to bet so they have them by the balls again.

[bryce]

I see your point Wayne I guess I have been lucky to deal with who I got.

[wayne1218]

I know you hate hearing all the people here who rip on locals bryce but one thing you can't change is the bad experiences people have had with them or with an offshore for that matter. You have been very lucky by the sounds of it but many have not.