Bills buried at bottom of loaded AFC East

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Dallas ready to ascend to top of NFC in 2010?

The Dallas Cowboys got a huge monkey off their back in January, winning their first postseason game in nearly 15 years. Most talking heads around the NFL think that might be just what it took to reach the next level this season, as Dallas is one of the favorites to represent the NFC at the 2011 Super Bowl in, ironically, Dallas. Let's take a look at their chances as our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Dallas Cowboys.
DALLAS COWBOYS
2009 Record:12-6 (+5.4 ML Units), 10-8 ATS
DIVISION:NFC East
COACH:Wade Phillips, 4th year (34-17 SU, 26-25 ATS)
STADIUM:Dallas Cowboys Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:10 to 1, NFC Title:4.5 to 1
******* Power Rating:28 (#6 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+5.9 (#8 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 12-6 ~ 34-17 (67%)
ATS: 10-8 ~ 26-25 (51%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Home ATS: 6-3 ~ 15-11 (58%)
Road ATS: 4-5 ~ 11-14 (44%)
Division ATS: 4-3 ~ 9-11 (45%)
Conference ATS: 9-5 ~ 22-17 (56%)
Favorite ATS: 8-7 ~ 23-19 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 2-1 ~ 3-6 (33%)
Over-Under: 7-11 ~ 26-25 (51%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +7.7 (#6 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +83.0 (#2 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +1.02 (#1 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +3.23 (#6 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +2 (#13 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 400.9 (#2 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 317.9 (#10 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.13 (10th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Washington, 8:20 PM
9/19/10 - CHICAGO, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - TENNESSEE, 4:15 PM
10/17/10 - at Minnesota, 4:15 PM
10/25/10 - NY GIANTS, 8:30 PM
10/31/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - at Green Bay, 8:20 PM
11/14/10 - at NY Giants, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
11/25/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 - at Indianapolis, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 8:20 PM
12/19/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
12/25/10 - at Arizona, 7:30 PM
1/2/11 - at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


DALLAS is on a 3-20 ATS (-19 Units) skid on the road after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games The Average Score was DALLAS 17, OPPONENT 19.1

2010 OUTLOOK
By Jerry Jones’ standards, it was a quiet offseason for the Cowboys and one can only assume one thing—Jones feels his franchise is built to become the first team to play in the Super Bowl it is hosting…QB Tony Romo fell apart against the Vikings’ pressure in the playoff loss, but one poor showing shouldn’t overshadow what was a banner year. On top of career-highs in passes attempted (550) and yards (4,483), Romo tossed a career-low nine interceptions. More importantly, he knocked the so-called gorilla off his back by beating Philadelphia in the wildcard playoff. The offensive outlook is indeed better with the arrival of WR Dez Bryant, who has wowed team representatives. The Cowboys have so many other weapons for defenses to account for already, inlcluding WR Miles Austin, off a breakout season, and TE Jason Witten, Romo’s favorite pass catcher. Don’t forget about WR Roy Wlliams, plus RB’s Marion Barber and Felix Jones as well. The line didn’t lose much with the release of tackle Flozell Adams, and promises to be strong…The stop unit doesn’t generate the headlines, but it is hard to overlook a unit that ranked fourth against the run (90.5 YPG) and ninth in total defense, and returns almost entirely intact. Consecutive shutouts over NFC East rivals in Weeks 16 and 17 also help raise its profile. The meat of the defense is the linebackers. Few teams can match the all-around play of the group as a whole. If there is any weakness, the secondary was exposed in the playoff loss…The strong play down the stretch bought the Wade Phillips regime one more season, but anything less than two steps forward will likely have him pounding the unemployment line. That said, the offense looks even better and the defense can hold up its end of the bargain. It’s Super Bowl or bust for the Cowboys.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
******* Steve's Take: As tough as the NFC East may look on paper, I personally believe that Dallas is the only team without any legitimate question marks headed into 2010. I love the fact that the Cowboys won down the stretch last season too, an important change for the franchise. I'm looking at 11 wins or more. OVER.

[StarDust Bum]

AFC East preview

With NFL ‘EAST’ division teams leading the charge with a combined total of 13 games played in Conference title tilts this past decade, including an league high four championship game appearances games by squads playing out of the AFC EAST, it speaks to the strength of this group.

So does the division’s 29-14 ATS mark as non-division road dogs from Game Twelve out this past decade, including a sterling 14-1 ATS when facing sub. 600 opposition.

Leading the charge is Mr. Personality himself, Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots. While his persona is hardly enduring, his manhandling of AFC East division foes that are off back-to-back losses is downright sinister, going 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS with the Pats in these affairs.

The Jets go from the hunter to the hunted. It will be interesting to see how they handle their newfound celebrity status.

Meanwhile, Miami owner Stephen Ross insists his team has Super Bowl champion written all over them. Our best guess is that happens as they bust out their 1972 throwbacks at some point during the season.

And then there’s Buffalo, ushering in a seventh different head coach this millennium. With the Bills enjoying only one winning season during this span, Chan Gailey’s troops could mildly surprise, especially with all the pressure in this loop pointed elsewhere.

Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

BUFFALO
TEAM THEME: DRINKING THE KOOL-AID

January 8, 2000. It not only marked the start of a new millennium, it also commemorates the date this floundering franchise last appeared in a playoff game. That was under the lead of Wade Phillips. Greg Williams, Mike Mularkey and Dick Jauron have all since attempted, and failed, to secure a post-season berth for the Bills. Along with dreadful Detroit, it’s been a long time between drinks of playoff water in Buffalo. Enter Chan Gailey, former NFL retread. In his two years at the helm with the Dallas Cowboys, Gailey managed a taste of the playoffs both seasons, albeit one-and-outs. That was likely the attraction in his hire by the Buffalo brass. To compete within the ultra-tough AFC East, Gailey will hope the selection of do-everything RB C.J. Spiller with the 9th pick in the first-round pays off. He provides a huge dose of excitement to a dreadful offense that was better than only Cleveland and Oakland last year.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. New England (12/26) – *KEY if Bills .500 >

MIAMI
TEAM THEME: MARSHALL PLAN

Some things in life come as no surprise. Ben Roethlisberger looking for a little bump-and-run. The Dallas Cowboys collapsing like the London Bridge on the road in December. Bill Parcells ordering up seven defensive players with his eight picks in this year’s draft. You get the drift. First-round draft pick Jared Odrick, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year at Penn State, is moving from defensive tackle in a 4-3 at Penn State to defensive end in a 3-4. That’s because of a shakeup on the DL due to the loss of massive NT Jason Ferguson, suspended the first eight games of the season for repeated violations of the performance enhancing policy. The addition of home-run hitting WR Brandon Marshall should kick-start QB Chad Henne’s development while the running back tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams is as good as any in the league. All in all, a grand plan by the Tuna for getting his Fish back into playoff waters.
PLAY ON: as dog at Cincinnati (10/31)

NEW ENGLAND
TEAM THEME: 3RD AND LONG IN THE TOOTH

Don’t look now but the Pats are taking on the look of an aging rock group. WR Randy Moss turned 33 and a step slower. His partner, WR Wes Welker, caught more passes (123) than anyone in the league in 2009, but underwent off-season knee surgery for a torn ALC and MCL and as a result, 34-year old Torry Holt was signed. RB Kevin Faulk turned 34 this summer and even star QB Tom Brady lists a pair of 3’s next to his age theses days. With other aging veterans either on or currently looking to earn a roster spot (Alge Cumpler, David Patten, Sammy Morris, Shawn Springs, etc.), the crow’s feet are creeping in on the Patriots. It’s why Bill Belichick loaded up on a stockpile of quality picks (12) in this year’s draft. While there is no refuting their results (121 wins the last nine years), New England is the pre-season 3rd choice to win the AFC on 2010. An oldies concert in Foxboro this January is pending.
PLAY ON: as dog at San Diego (10/24)

NY JETS
TEAM THEME: ALL IN

Funny thing about Jets head coach Rex Ryan. He isn’t a salesman but you sure get the feeling he’s selling you something. Straight out of the World Series school of Poker Bluff, Ryan was not content playing the same hand that dealt the Jets 11 wins in 2009. Gone are G Alan Faneca, RB’s Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and CB’s Lito Sheppard and Donald Strickland. In their place he acquired CB Antonio Cromartie, LB/DE Jason Taylor, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and WR Santonio Holmes. There is no disguising the fact the Jets owned the No. 1 team defense and rushing offense (the magic hand) in the league last year. Ryan, the master of "I wasn't aware of that," when asked about being underdogs in the playoffs last year said, “To me we should be favorites. I mean in the whole tournament… I want this football team. If I had a choice to coach any team in this tournament, I would choose this one." Are you buying it?
PLAY ON: as dog at Miami (9/26)

[StarDust Bum]

AFC North preview

Once an AFC division powerhouse when operating under the ‘Central’ brand, the AFC North has pretty much settled into a two-team loop with Baltimore and Pittsburgh leading the charge.

Together, playing under the AFC North umbrella, the Ravens and Steelers combined to go 163-111-2 this past decade with only four losing seasons between the dynamic duo. On the flip side, Cincinnati and Cleveland paired to post a 105-153-1 ledger over the same span, with just four wining seasons combined.

While a changing of the guard does not appear imminent, the Bengals served notice last season that they are about ready to shed their losing ways. Was 2009 for real or just a brilliant disguise? Stay tuned.

A word to the wise: teams from this division could not handle the weight of double-digit favoritism, combining to go 10-20 ATS this past decade as double-digit favorites when facing an opponent with at least one win on the season. Caveat emptor.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

BALTIMORE
TEAM THEME: THOSE WERE THE DAYS
One of the best lines uttered by NFL ESPN analyst Jon Gruden last season was when he said, “If the Baltimore Ravens wore their throwback uniforms they would be the Cleveland Browns.” The fact of the matter is the Black Birds are a long way removed from being the Browns these days. A tough-as-nails defensive presence is back. In addition, the offense opened up in 2009, making the Ravens a difficult game on every team’s itinerary. Five of the seven regular season losses were by a field goal or less and had they not been so sloppy in the late stages of many of those games, they could have matched the 13-win campaign orchestrated in John Harbaugh’s rookie season in 2008. Another strong draft by GM Ozzie Newsome will go a long way in sustaining Baltimore’s dominance on defense. Art Modell no longer has his stamp on this franchise. It’s a good thing Newsome does.

PLAY ON: as dog at Cincinnati (9/19)

CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: CATS AND DOGS

Snapping an inglorious skein of one winning season in 18 years, the Bengals returned to the playoffs for only the second time since 1990 last year. Making it even harder to fathom is the fact Cincinnati failed to cover the spread all eight games in which they were favored, losing four times straight-up. The Striped Cats’ multiple personalities went full circle, though, when they managed no less than six straight-up underdog wins, making them hands-down the Yin and Yang award winners in 2009. A dicey schedule (4th toughest in the league) this year could prove to be a challenge. A positive sign that the Bengals have rounded the corner: Entering 2008, they were 1-27 SU and 6-20 ATS on the road against .700 or greater opposition. They went 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS against the same last year. Still, head coach Marvin Lewis remains cautious. "We didn't stand pat this off-season. We don't get nothing for last year."

PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Pittsburgh (11/8) – *KEY if Steelers off loss

CLEVELAND
TEAM THEME: REVOLVING DOOR

Check out this resume: Derek Anderson, Tim Couch, Trent Dilfer, Ken Dorsey, Charlie Frye, Jeff Garcia. Bruce Gradkowski, Kelly Holcomb, Luke McCown, Doug Pedersen, Brady Quinn, Kevin Thompson and Spergon Wynn. This baker’s dozen represents all the quarterbacks that have appeared under center for Cleveland this past decade. Therein explains its 67-104 record. And that’s why Mike Holmgren has taken over control of the team. His first move was his biggest when he opted to keep Eric Mangini on the sidelines. Anderson and Quinn are gone with Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace battling for the starting berth. Rest assured, when it’s all said and done, Colt McCoy will be calling signals and Holmgren will get this mess turned around. A solid draft and crafty free agent signings have kick-started a new era. Once the QB breeze has subsided, Browns Stadium will again become the Dawg Pound we’ve learned to love. Chew on that for a while.

PLAY AGAINST: at Buffalo (12/12)

PITTSBURGH
TEAM THEME: DRINK LIKE A CHAMPION What’s with the water in Pittsburgh these days? Three years ago two players get arrested for running juvenile prostitution and home invasion robbery. Two years ago two more players are jailed on assault charges. Former Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes was arrested on trespassing and drug possession charges before finally being traded and then suspended for four games for substance abuse by the NFL. And then there’s the other Super Bowl MVP, Ben Roethlisberger. After a second charge in as many years of sexual assault, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell informed Big Ben that he’d be out of action the first six weeks this season. There’s no truth to the rumor that Big Ben appeared relieved when he said, "I'm pretty sure Commish was talking about me playing football." Until the suspension, the Steelers were prepared to start the season with 21 of their 22 starters back. Remember this: Pittsburgh lost six games SU as a favorite in 2009, the most of any team in the league.

PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. New England (11/14)

[StarDust Bum]

Denver Broncos preview

We thought it was rather illuminating on draft night how various members of the media reacted to the Broncos' wheeling and dealing tactics and eventual two picks in the first round, Georgia Tech WR Demaryius Thomas and highly-publicized QB Tim Tebow from Florida. One of those was ESPN analyst Jon Gruden, gushing over the Tebow selection in particular. "What a winner!," said the excited Gruden. "They'll love Tebow in Denver. And with Thomas? Wow, what a combination (coach) Josh McDaniels got in the first round!"

Fellow ESPN analyst Tom Jackson, who knows a thing or two about Bronco football after starring at LB for some outstanding Denver teams between 1973-86, had a slightly different take on the proceedings. "Tebow and Thomas, compared to Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall?," asked the skeptical Jackson. "We'll see."

And therein is the conundrum Broncos fans find themselves as McDaniels' second season in charge approaches this fall. Is their young coach a prodigy and evolving personnel genius, or just an on-the-job trainee?

Whatever, the jury remains out on year two of Pat Bowlen's big experiment with the supposed boy genius coach who gained notice as Bill Belichick's o.c. at New England. It is not lost on gridiron observers how most of Belichick's disciples have struggled in their head coaching and front office careers. To this point, McDaniels fits in with the rest of that group that includes Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, and Chiefs GM Scott Pioli. All marked their arrivals in their new environs similarly, alienating established leaders while projecting a sort of self-assurance that borders on arrogance. Most agree that Belichick, with three Super Bowls under his belt, can get away with such power trips. With young McDaniels, for the moment, at least, the act seems a bit hard to swallow.

But it's hard not to assume McDaniels is playing Belichick-style mind games, especially young Josh's sloppy handling of interactions with Cutler after unsuccessfully trying to trade him at the start of last year's free agency. Subsequently, star TE Tony Scheffler ran afoul of McDaniels, landing on the wrong side of young Josh's naughty-nice list before being benched in the season finale vs. Kansas City, and was eventually traded to Detroit. Marshall's behavioral issues made his trade to Miami easier to understand, but in just over a year, McDaniels has overseen an almost complete overhaul of the roster inherited from Mike Shanahan. Moreover, respected d.c. Mike Nolan, who made lemonade from lemons for a time last year, departed abruptly for Miami in the offseason.

For a while it looked as if Bowlen had indeed found another Belichick a year ago when McDaniels began his career with a startling 6-0 mark, briefly becoming the talk of the league. QB Kyle Orton, acquired from Chicago in the Cutler deal, was proving a nice fit for young Josh's ball-control passing game. Meanwhile, Nolan's stop unit was a revelation, its new 3-4 looks appearing a perfect fit for an undersized yet speed-based platoon that was able to unleash hybrid Elvis Dumervil as a pass rush demon. After the "bye" week, however, the season quickly unraveled, with Orton's limitations eventually exposed and further compounded by an ankle injury, while the smallish "D" began to wear down from the wear and tear. The playoff berth that seemed assured for much of the year disappeared with 8 losses in the last 10 games, including a humiliating home loss to the Chiefs in the finale.

This fall, Orton still figures to pilot the attack, although Brady Quinn has been imported from Cleveland to provide competition as well as a more viable backup than LY's Chris Simms. And then there's Tebow, who at the outset figures to be featured in various special packages. Continuing the change theme from the Shanahan years, McDaniels is emphasizing a bigger, bulkier OL that he hopes will help in short-yardage situations. But RB Knowshon Moreno, failing to demonstrate much breakaway ability with only two runs of more than 20 yards, was a mild disappointment as a rookie, and most of Orton's receiving targets (including rookie Thomas and Eddie Royal, who disappeared LY after a stellar rookie debut in '08) have acknowledged flaws.

Can the scheme really create the mismatches McDaniels expects?

Meanwhile, new d.c. Don Martindale has been promoted from LB coach and will retain Nolan's 3-4 looks. The Broncos' FA activity focused upon adding some veteran beef to a DL that couldn't stop the run as last season progressed. But ex-Raven DT Justin Bannan, ex-Patriot DE Jarvis Green, and ex-Charger NT Jamal Williams are all over 30, which combined with an over-30 secondary gives Martindale something resembling George Allen's old Redskins stop units. Yet one of the younger components, 2009 first-round pick Robert Ayers, is expected to blossom in his new OLB role, while Dumervil (NFL-best 17 sacks LY) and CB Champ Bailey are still elite-class defenders.

Bottom line...The verdict is still out on McDaniels, whose vision of stocking the roster with intelligent, high-character sorts who can execute his game plan sounds noble enough. But there have been enough peripheral distractions and mixed signals from the early stages of the new regime to make Denver fans wonder in which direction the franchise is headed. We'll see this fall. At least we know young Josh isn't afraid to take a chance.

[StarDust Bum]

Broncos hope to recover from late-season collapse

Josh McDaniels certainly made a splash in his first year with the Broncos franchise. On the field, the 2009 season was marked by highs, a 6-0 start, and lows, a 4-game losing streak to close the season. Off the field, the news was just as noteworthy, We'll break some of that down for you as our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Denver Broncos.
DENVER BRONCOS
2009 Record:8-8 (-9.1 ML Units), 9-7 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Josh McDaniels, 2nd year (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS)
STADIUM:Invesco Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, AFC Title:30 to 1
******* Power Rating:17 (#21 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-0.1 (#19 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 23-25 (48%)
ATS: 9-7 ~ 18-30 (38%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-5 (55%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 8-16 (33%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 10-14 (42%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 6-12 (33%)
Conference ATS: 6-6 ~ 13-23 (36%)
Favorite ATS: 3-3 ~ 6-18 (25%)
Underdog ATS: 6-4 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 28-20 (58%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +0.1 (#18 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +26.4 (#13 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.28 (#15 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -1.15 (#22 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +7 (#6 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 341.4 (#15 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 315 (#7 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 19.31 (25th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - SEATTLE, 4:05 PM
9/26/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - NY JETS, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 - OAKLAND, 4:15 PM
10/31/10 - vs. San Francisco (London), 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - KANSAS CITY, 4:05 PM
11/22/10 - at San Diego, 8:30 PM
11/28/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - at Oakland, 4:15 PM
12/26/10 - HOUSTON, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 - SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


DENVER is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since '07. The Average Score was DENVER 15, OPPONENT 31.7

2010 OUTLOOK
Josh McDaniels’ first season as head coach at Denver was filled with ups and downs, as the Broncos got off to a 6-0 start only to lose eight of their last 10 games, missing the postseason. It didn’t get much better since. Two key figures parted ways with the team—DC Mike Nolan and All-Pro WR Brandon Marshall, traded to Miami…Newly acquired QB Brady Quinn will backup Kyle Orton, who set career-highs for completion percentage (62.1), yards (3,802) and TD passes (21). High-profile draftee Tim Tebow is likely to play in only certain sets. Marshall may have been trouble off the field, but his production will be missed on it. Rookie Demaryius Thomas (1a-Georgia Tech) was drafted to replace the superstar, and has similar size to Marshall’s. Knowshon Moreno is comes off a rookie campaign in which he rushed for 947 yards and seven touchdowns. The offensive line needs Ryan Clady to recover fully from a partially torn patellar tendon…Don Martindale was promoted from linebackers coach to coordinator when Nolan left, and he’ll continue to run the 3-4 scheme that ranked third in the NFL in pass defense (186.3 YPG) and seventh in total defense (315.0). The Broncos went the free-agent route to shore up the line, with three new players expected to start, DT Jamal Williams plus ends Justin Bannan and Jarvis Green. The LB corps is strong, led by Elvis Dumervil, who paced the NFL with 17 sacks. The secondary is a veteran unit that still gets the job done, led by ageless FS Brian Dawkins and CB Champ Bailey…The early season schedule is tough, so don’t expect as fast a start as last year. But if the Broncos can get to .500 before the bye week, they have a chance to vie for a playoff spot.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
******* Steve's Take: The Broncos were only 8-8 last season despite winning their first six games. This year's team, minus its most crucial offensive weapon doesn't seem to have "more" than a year ago. I see them taking a step back, especially with Kansas City and Oakland seemingly improved. UNDER.

[StarDust Bum]

Reason to finally believe in the Detroit Lions?

For a team that has won only three games per season over the last four years, there certainly seems to be a lot of optimism surrounding the Detroit Lions' franchise. Perhaps it's well-founded. After all, the Lions finally have their quarterback of the future in place in Matt Stafford, they have one of the league's best wideouts in Calvin Johnson, and now, they have added several other potential breakout players through the draft and free agency. Will the results finally show on the field? Let's take an early look at the 2010 Detroit Lions.
DETROIT LIONS
2009 Record:2-14 (-10.6 ML Units), 4-10 ATS
DIVISION:NFC North
COACH:Jim Schwartz, 2nd year (2-14 SU, 4-10 ATS)
STADIUM:Ford Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, NFC Title:50 to 1
******* Power Rating:7 (#31 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-13 (#31 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 2-14 ~ 9-39 (19%)
ATS: 4-10 ~ 17-28 (38%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-5 (55%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 8-15 (35%)
Road ATS: 1-5 ~ 9-13 (41%)
Division ATS: 0-5 ~ 6-10 (38%)
Conference ATS: 2-8 ~ 11-22 (33%)
Favorite ATS: 0-2 ~ 2-4 (33%)
Underdog ATS: 4-8 ~ 15-24 (38%)
Over-Under: 8-8 ~ 29-18 (62%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -14.5 (#31 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -93.1 (#30 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.49 (#31 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -5.54 (#30 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -19 (#32 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 299 (#26 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 392.1 (#32 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.75 (3rd toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - NY JETS, 1:00 PM
11/11/10 - at Buffalo, 8:30 PM
11/21/10 - at Dallas, 1:00 PM
11/25/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 12:30 PM
12/5/10 - CHICAGO, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Miami, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


DETROIT is on a 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) skid vs. teams scoring 14 or less PPG The Average Score was DETROIT 20.7, OPPONENT 22.8

2010 OUTLOOK
Remember where you read it first—the Lions will be tougher to tame in 2010. A major splash in the draft, a couple of key free agents and a year of experience under QB Matthew Stafford’s belt are three reasons why Detroit is a strong candidate to take a considerable step up the ladder just two years removed from a winless season…The two-win Lions of ’09 had their moments on offense while Stafford got acclimated to coordinator Scott Linehan’s playbook and is bound to improve with a better supporting cast. Calvin Johnson (67 catches, 984 yards, 5 TD’s) is quickly developing a rapport with Stafford and is joined in the receiving corps by WR Nate Burleson and TE Tony Scheffler. The running game disappointed, ranking 24th in yards. Enter Jahvid Best (1b-California), who brings speed and big-play ability to a unit in desperate for both…In the big picture, Detroit improved its defense during the offseason but is moving forward without its most productive member in recent years, LB Ernie Sims as well as tackle leader Larry Foote. The Lions allowed more yards (392.1 per game) and points (494) than anyone and managed only 26 sacks. A major facelift on the front four can help fiery coordinator Gunther Cunningham get things moving in the right direction via warp speed. Tackle Ndamukong Suh (1a-Nebraska) is a rare talent and was the most dominant player in college football last season. Schwartz put most of his free-agent eggs in the basket of veteran end Kyle Vanden Bosch (Titans) as well…Nobody’s expecting the Lions to go from worst to first in a division likely to produce two playoff teams, but maybe they can show they’re no longer pushovers. The rookies will contribute on each side of the ball, and as long as the Stafford-Johnson combination is healthy it won’t be such a terrible year.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5
******* Steve's Take: Most experts believe that Detroit will be improved in 2010, but by how much? One game, two, three? It would take a 3-win improvement to reach the 5-11 mark. That may be optimistic considering the Lions face the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL. I'll pass on this one.

[StarDust Bum]

Expectations are high for Packers in 2010

The Green Bay Packers were one of the NFL's best teams in the second half of the 2009 season, and led all teams in yardage differential overall. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a huge season and may be ready to step up among the game's elite this fall. The defense was equally or even more effective however, and with the Pack returning nearly intact, needless to say, expectations are high, and their sights are set on the Vikings' reign of the NFC North. Let's preview the 2010 Green Bay Packers as we continue our team-by-team series.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
2009 Record:11-6 (-1.8 ML Units), 11-5 ATS
DIVISION:NFC North
COACH:Mike McCarthy, 5th year (39-28 SU, 39-25 ATS)
STADIUM:Lambeau Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:12 to 1, NFC Title:4.5 to 1
******* Power Rating:29 (#3 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+7.3 (#5 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 11-6 ~ 31-20 (61%)
ATS: 11-5 ~ 31-17 (65%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 7-5 (58%)
Home ATS: 5-2 ~ 15-9 (63%)
Road ATS: 6-3 ~ 16-8 (67%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 13-5 (72%)
Conference ATS: 8-4 ~ 23-14 (62%)
Favorite ATS: 8-4 ~ 19-12 (61%)
Underdog ATS: 3-1 ~ 11-4 (73%)
Over-Under: 9-8 ~ 31-18 (63%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +9.3 (#3 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +86.9 (#1 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.86 (#4 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +1.63 (#12 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +24 (#1 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 385.8 (#3 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 298.9 (#3 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.5 (19th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
9/27/10 - at Chicago, 8:30 PM
10/3/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Washington, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - MIAMI, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - MINNESOTA, 8:20 PM
10/31/10 - at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - DALLAS, 8:20 PM
11/21/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at New England, 8:20 PM
12/26/10 - NY GIANTS, 4:15 PM
1/2/11 - CHICAGO, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


GREEN BAY is on a 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) run at home vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG The Average Score was GREEN BAY 25.2, OPPONENT 14.9

2010 OUTLOOK
Head coach Mike McCarthy and the Packers would love to pick up where they left off last season when they steamrolled to a 7-1 record over the second half and came within a turnover of a road playoff win. Green Bay held six of its last eight regular-season opponents to 14 points or fewer while scoring at least 27 in six second-half games. With starpower on each side of the ball in QB Aaron Rodgers and NFL Defensive POY Charles Woodson, how far the Packers go may ultimately depend on their offensive line…For someone sacked more than any other QB, Rodgers didn’t let the pressure get to him. He’ll come into 2010 with as much confidence as anyone after a huge year (4,434 yards, 30:7 TD-Int ratio). The biggest question mark in Green Bay is up front, where age is starting to catch up. GM Ted Thompson made tackle Bryan Bulaga (1-Iowa) the 23rd pick of the draft. The running game was solid behind Ryan Grant, but not explosive. The Packers had eight players catch at least 20 passes from Rodgers, led by WR’s Donald Driver & Greg Jennings, and TE Jermichael Finley, who could be the league’s best at the position by the end of 2010…DC Dom Capers was a key factor in turning around a defense that ranked 26th against the run and had 27 sacks in 2008. In its first year under Capers, the new 3-4 unit led the NFL in rushing defense (83.3 YPG) and ranked No. 5 against the pass. Rookie Clay Matthews had a huge year, and while the secondary isn’t young, it is loaded with playmakers… Rodgers appears to have elevated himself to an elite quarterback, and no defense did a better job against the run or making big plays. The Packers meet all the criteria of a Super Bowl contender and should challenge for the NFC crown.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
******* Steve's Take: The Packers were 11-5 a season ago with a team that was young and still growing at many key positions. For the most part, those youngsters flourished and now are heading into the 2010 season with the weight of expectations on their shoulders. Like Peter King of Sports Illustrated, I see this as one of the most dynamic and complete teams in the NFL. The sky's the limit. Certain OVER barring a Rodgers' injury.

[StarDust Bum]

Texans eye first playoff berth in 2010

After winning a franchise high nine games in 2009, the Houston Texans have set a reachable goal of qualifying for a first ever playoff berth this season. Why shouldn't they make the playoffs? Houston had the top ranked passing attack in the NFL last fall, the league's defensive rookie of the year in LB Brian Cushing, and starts the season on a 4-game carryover winning streak. Indianapolis, take notice. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Houston Texans.
HOUSTON TEXANS
2009 Record:9-7 (+1.5 ML Units), 7-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC South
COACH:Gary Kubiak, 5th year (31-33 SU, 31-32 ATS)
STADIUM:Reliant Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, AFC Title:15 to 1
******* Power Rating:24 (#11 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+1.8 (#14 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 9-7 ~ 25-23 (52%)
ATS: 7-8 ~ 24-23 (51%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-5 (55%)
Home ATS: 2-5 ~ 13-10 (57%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 11-13 (46%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Conference ATS: 6-6 ~ 18-18 (50%)
Favorite ATS: 3-6 ~ 9-13 (41%)
Underdog ATS: 4-2 ~ 15-10 (60%)
Over-Under: 5-10 ~ 24-22 (52%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +3.4 (#11 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +58.0 (#7 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.53 (#11 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.20 (#15 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +0 (#18 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 382.8 (#5 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 324.8 (#13 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.5 (6th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Washington, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - DALLAS, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - at Oakland, 4:05 PM
10/10/10 - NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM
11/1/10 - at Indianapolis, 8:30 PM
11/7/10 - SAN DIEGO, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
12/2/10 - at Philadelphia, 8:20 PM
12/13/10 - BALTIMORE, 8:30 PM
12/19/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Denver, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


HOUSTON is 9-0 UNDER the total (+9 Units) vs. teams with a losing record since '07. The Average Score was HOUSTON 23, OPPONENT 14.9

2010 OUTLOOK
Houston has never been to the playoffs, but came close last season with a 9-7 record. While many believe this could finally be the year for a postseason berth, the team took a big hit when LB Brian Cushing, the 2009 NFL Defensive ROY, was suspended for the first four games of the ‘10 campaign…QB Matt Schaub comes off his best season yet (396 completions, 4,770 yards). Both were #1 in the NFL and career highs, as was his number of touchdowns (29). Most importantly, he played in all 16 games. Much of Schaub’s success can be attributed to having one of the best wide receivers in the game at his disposal in Andre Johnson (101 catches, 1,569 yards). Running back Steve Slaton endured a sophomore slump (seven fumbles) before suffering a season-ending neck injury in Week 13. Arian Foster showed flashes of brilliance in his two starts and will get a shot to earn the starting job. Schaub’s stats are even more impressive when one considers that he plays behind an average offensive line…The stop unit was an improved group, having ranked tied for 13th in total yardage and 10th in rushing yards. Cushing’s outstanding debut had a lot to do with the improvement and his absence will be tough to overcome early. The line is solid and should be even better with end Mario Williams healthy after battling through a shoulder injury last season. Strong safety Bernard Pollard comes off an outstanding first year with the Texans after signing as a free agent…Houston is ready to take that next step. The Texans won’t pass Indianapolis in the race for the AFC South crown, but the talent is certainly there to earn a wild-card spot in the playoffs. If they can win two of the four games without Cushing, and improve their division record, they’ll see the postseason for the first time.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8
******* Steve's Take: Over the last three seasons, Houston has won nine, nine, and eight games. This is a franchise that certainly appears to be on the rise, one capable of a first-ever postseason berth. The problem I see is that there really isn't a certain win at any point on the schedule. Look for 8-8 or perhaps 9-7.

[StarDust Bum]

Colts look for 10th straight postseason berth

As the Colts embark on a season that they hope could produce a league-record 10th straight postseason berth, they are showing very few signs of slowing down. While true that they did come up short in the Super Bowl to New Orleans last February, the 2009 season was another wildly successful campaign for Indianapolis. With Peyton Manning back under center and the rest of the corps still intact, the Colts have to again be considered one of the AFC favorites this fall. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Indianapolis Colts.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2009 Record:16-3 (+12 ML Units), 12-7 ATS
DIVISION:AFC South
COACH:Jim Caldwell, 2nd year (16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS)
STADIUM:Lucas Oil Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:6 to 1, AFC Title:3 to 1
******* Power Rating:27 (#8 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+7.1 (#6 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 16-3 ~ 41-12 (77%)
ATS: 12-7 ~ 28-24 (54%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 4-8 (33%)
Home ATS: 5-5 ~ 13-14 (48%)
Road ATS: 7-2 ~ 15-10 (60%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 8-10 (44%)
Conference ATS: 9-5 ~ 20-19 (51%)
Favorite ATS: 11-6 ~ 22-21 (51%)
Underdog ATS: 1-1 ~ 5-3 (63%)
Over-Under: 10-9 ~ 26-27 (49%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +6.8 (#9 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +23.3 (#14 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.91 (#2 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +3.73 (#4 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +1 (#15 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 362.5 (#9 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 339.2 (#18 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.31 (21st toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - NY GIANTS, 8:20 PM
9/26/10 - at Denver, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - at Jacksonville, 4:05 PM
10/10/10 - KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at Washington, 8:20 PM
11/1/10 - HOUSTON, 8:30 PM
11/7/10 - at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM
11/14/10 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at New England, 4:15 PM
11/28/10 - SAN DIEGO, 8:20 PM
12/5/10 - DALLAS, 4:15 PM
12/9/10 - at Tennessee, 8:20 PM
12/19/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Oakland, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


INDIANAPOLIS is on a 23-4 OVER the total (+18.6 Units) run on the road coming off an upset loss as a favorite The Average Score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.9, OPPONENT 28.1

2010 OUTLOOK
In Jim Caldwell’s first season as head coach in Indianapolis, the Colts, despite injuries to key players on both sides of scrimmage, went to their second Super Bowl in four years and finished a decade that saw them go 115-45. It was the winningest 10-year span in NFL history and, this year, Indianapolis will try to get into the record book with a league-tying ninth straight postseason berth. Caldwell has made some changes to his staff on offense, with coordinator Clyde Christensen taking over for Tom Moore as the main play caller…QB Peyton Manning won his second-straight NFL MVP award, throwing 393 completions for 4,500 yards and a 68.8 completion rate, all team records. He also had a 33:16 TD-Int ratio. And as if Manning didn’t have enough weapons with All-Pros Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he should have a healthy Anthony Gonzalez back at his disposal, plus youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Manning will once again play behind arguably the league’s best line when the ball is put in the air. If there is one knock on the offense, it’s the virtual lack of a running game. It finished last in the league in ground YPG…Had the stop unit been healthy in the Super Bowl, the Colts could well be the defending champion. Still, management thought talent needed to be added, so the top three draft picks were spent on this side of scrimmage. The key will be the health of FS Bob Sanders, who missed all but two games in 2009 with a torn biceps tendon. Draftee DE Jerry Hughes (1-TCU) will have two veteran standouts to learn from in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis…The Colts could well get back to the Super Bowl for the third time in five years. Manning shows no signs of slowing down and the defense should improve if healthy. Another division title is likely.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 11
******* Steve's Take: The Colts boast the highest regular season wins prop in the NFL, fitting since they quite possibly could have gone 16-0 last year if they "wanted to". With the 21st toughest schedule in the league, Indianapolis could probably win 11 games in its sleep, and the only thing that could deter them is an injury to Manning. We all know that never happens. OVER.

[StarDust Bum]

AFC South Preview

Don’t look now, but it appears as if the South may be rising again.

Let’s put it another way. When quarterbacks go into battle they are the team’s Generals. Some are five-star material (Peyton Manning, 99.9 QB rating last season), others are in the process of earning their stripes (Matt Schaub, 98.6 QB rating in 2009).

As a result, teams in this division won more battles than they lost last season with Jacksonville the only losing team in the division (7-9).

Furthermore, since their inception in 2002, the AFC South has been a home dog haven, with its members going 50-31-1 ATS, including 18-6 when hosting a sub .500 opponent.

In addition, this division has not backed down a lick when squaring off against the big-bad NFC East, as they do this season, having gone 11-5 SU and ATS as a host, including 8-2 SU and ATS when the South has at least one victory on the season.

In this business, the bottom line is… the bottom line. The bottom line here: Look for the South to continue its surge in 2010.

Note: Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: THE ‘P’ WORD
No longer a maiden, Houston broke on through to the other side when it recorded the first winning season in its franchise history last year. The signs were there and they delivered. The hiring of DC Dom Capers, and eight-win seasons the previous two years, put the Texans in position to succeed. Now they hunger for more. Granted, along with the Titans, they will face the toughest opponent strength of schedule in the league in 2010. But with QB Matt Schaub coming into his own, and possessing arguably the best receiver in the league in Andre Johnson (topped the league in receiving yards last year with 1,569), it’s only logical that a 9-win team that suffered only one loss by more than eight points in 2009, would be pointing to the p - - - - - - s. (Hint: it’s an 8-letter word never heard in this area during this era). If they can’t say it, at least they can visualize it.
PLAY ON: as dog off BB losses vs. Jacksonville (11/14)

INDIANAPOLIS
TEAM THEME: JOCKEYING FOR A TITLE
With a dozen or more victories nine years running, it is no surprise to find the Colts installed as the pre-season favorite Super Bowl favorites. But, as you know from reading these pages, the bigger hurdle facing Peyton Manning and his mates is the dreaded ‘Super Bowl’ loser jinx they will be infected with in 2010. Given the fact that seven of the nine SB losers this decade failed to return to the playoffs the following season (kudos to Kurt Warner and the Cardinals on overcoming this pestilence last year), it appears the Colts may be in need of booster shots in order to overcome this epidemic. That shot might be the confidence this team owns knowing it was riding a 14-0 record, along with 23 regular season wins a in a row, before they took a late-season dive against the Jets last year, opting to rest starters in preparation for the playoffs. It could be déjà vu all over again this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Tennessee (1/2)

JACKSONVILLE
TEAM THEME: YOU DON’T KNOW JACK
Back-to-back losing seasons, including late season cave-ins both years, sent Jack Del Rio to the NFL draft with one thought in mind: beef up the ‘D.’ After watching the Jags post declining numbers across the board on the defensive side of the ball three years in a row, Del Rio proceeded to pick off four defensive linemen in a row. Along with the additions of veteran free agent LB Kirk Morrison, Oakland’s leading tackler the last five seasons (avg 126.5 tackles per year) and DE Aaron Kampman, a six-year starter with the Packers, the message was delivered loud and clear. The offense is in the capable hands of QB David Garrard and star RB Maurice Jones-Drew, aka ‘Pocket Hercules’, arguably the most complete back in the league. While they are building a team for the future, Del Rio’s goal is to win the division this year. What else would you expect from a coach that can’t stand losing.
PLAY ON: vs. Oakland (12/12) – *KEY off BB losses

TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: THE YOUNG AND RESTLESS
After an 0-6 start behind fossil Kerry Collins last year, the Titans called on Vince Young and he delivered a much-needed remedy. Big time. An 8-2 conclusion to the 2009 season following the Bye Week stamped Young as the savior of this franchise. Not the team’s best player, just its knight in shining armor. RB Chris Johnson, who rushed for a league high 2,006 yards last year, nearly 600 yards more than his closest competitor (Stephen Jackson), is straightforwardly the Titans’ MVP. The Titans took a hit on the defensive line when they lost DE Kyle Vanden Bosch to free agency (Detroit) but made strides when they selected Derrick Morgan from Georgia Tech with their first pick in the NFL draft. Along with the Texans, Tennessee will face the toughest opponent strength of schedule in the league in 2010. If they don’t shore up the defense (slipped 77 YPG in 2009), they’ll likely care less about the rest of the slate.
PLAY ON: vs. Houston (12/19)

[StarDust Bum]

AFC Win Totals

Most betting shops both offshore and in Las Vegas have recently posted win totals for the 2010 NFL campaign. On that note, let’s discuss a few of those numbers and more.

The highest win tallies belong to the Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Chargers, who are at 11 ‘under’ (minus-130) at BoDog. These wagers have a 30-cent line, so bettors wanting the ‘over’ would get an even-money price on the Bolts.

More than anything, San Diego shares the highest total due to its weak division. The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos are all going through rebuilding phases, as evidenced by win totals of 6, 6 ½ and 7 1/2, respectively.

With that said, this space thinks Oakland could turn some heads this year. We saw it was a different team when JaMarcus Russell wasn’t under center last year. Remember, the Raiders went into Heinz Field and won outright as 14 ½-point underdogs when the Steelers were in a must-win situation in terms of their playoff hopes.

With Russell belatedly jettisoned out of town, Jason Campbell takes over as the team’s starting quarterback. The former Redskin signal caller was acquired on draft day, which went quite well for the Raiders (in a shocking change of pace) according to this guy.

I loved the pick of linebacker Rolando McClain, who was more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in most mock drafts but went to Oakland at No. 8. However, this was not a Darrius Heyward-Bey type of reach and it says here that McClain is going to be a perennial Pro-Bowler.

Similar to its pick of Louis Murphy as a fourth-round steal the year before, Oakland got great value by drafting Clemson wide receiver Jacoby Ford in the fourth round. In fact, the Raiders scored a pair of fourth-round steals by also selecting Maryland OT Bruce Campbell, who is a first-round talent that could start immediately on an offensive line that’s been the team’s biggest weakness the last two years.

Back to the Colts, who have a win total of 11 ‘under’ (minus-130) at Sportsbook.com. This offshore website has 20-cent lines, so gamblers can bet ‘over’ 11 wins on Indy for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).

Peyton Manning and Co. play at New England in late November and will play at Philadelphia earlier in the month. The Colts will face the Eagles on a short week of preparation after hosting Houston for Monday Night Football the previous week.

Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee are all optimistic that it can break through in 2010. We saw how the Titans went from 0-6 to 8-2 once Vince Young replaced Kerry Collins as the team’s starting QB last year. Assuming the organization can get star RB Chris Johnson (2,006 rushing yards LY) happy with his contract and into training camp, there’s no reason to think the Titans aren’t a legit contender.

Jeff Fisher’s club has been saddled with a win total of 8 ½ flat (minus-110 either way). Tennessee is hoping that first-round pick Derrick Morgan can replace veteran defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch, who bolted to Detroit via free agency. Morgan had 12 ½ sacks at Ga. Tech in 2009. Another rookie, third-round pick Damian Williams from out of USC, should be able to have an immediate impact on Young and the squad’s aerial attack.

The Texans are still trying to get to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. They came close last season, finishing 9-7. Gary Kubiak was retained, but he probably needs to get to the postseason this year if he wants a sixth season in Houston.

The organization likes what it has, as evidenced by the return of nearly the entire nucleus except for CB Dunta Robinson, who inked a big free-agent contract with Atlanta. The Texans did address the kicking game with the signing of former Arizona place kicker Neil Rackers. They have a win total of eight ‘over’ (minus-130) at Sportsbook.com.

Jacksonville’s tally is the lowest in the AFC South at seven ‘under’ (minus-120). Like Kubiak in Houston, Jack Del Rio probably has to get the Jaguars back to the playoffs in order to keep his job. I hated the team’s draft and they weren’t exactly active in the free-agent market with their best acquisition (DE Aaron Kampman) coming off a torn ALC. I think it’s ‘under’ or pass on the Jags’ win tally.

The AFC North has Baltimore with the highest win total, 10 ‘over’ (minus-120). The Ravens are looking for their third straight trip to the playoffs during John Harbaugh’s tenure. They brought in WR Anquan Boldin to give QB Joe Flacco help with the passing game. The draft also addressed some needs, as a bulky DT was plucked out of the second round. His name is Terrence Cody from out of Alabama.

Pittsburgh has the Ben Roethlisberger suspension to cope with early in the year. Nevertheless, the Steelers have a win total of nine ‘under’ (minus-150). Bettors can back the ‘over’ for a plus-130 return.

For the second straight time, I really like what Cincinnati did in the draft. The Bengals got a tight end in Jermaine Gresham, who missed last season after tearing his ACL at Oklahoma. In the second and third rounds, they got two players who should immediately contribute in Florida DE Carlos Dunlap and Texas WR Jordan Shipley, who got loose for several big plays against Alabama’s vaunted secondary during the BCS Championship Game.

Laveranues Coles was let go and will be replaced by Antonio Bryant, who struggled through an injury-riddled 2009 campaign but had 83 receptions for 1,248 yards in 2008. Of course, Chad Johnson will be Carson Palmer’s go-to guy, while Shipley will battle Andre Caldwell to be the team’s third receiver.

Marvin Lewis’s team has a win total of 7 ½ ‘over’ (minus-150). I think the ‘under’ is a good look here, especially after reviewing Cincy’s schedule. Consider how tough it will be for the Bengals to win in these six road games: at New England, at Atlanta, at Indianapolis, at the Jets on a Thursday night, at Pittsburgh when Roethlisberger will be back in December and at Baltimore. They also have to play San Diego and New Orleans at Paul Brown Stadium.

Cleveland’s number is 5 ½ ‘over (minus-125). The Browns won four in a row to end the regular season and save Eric Mangini’s job, but they still went 5-11 overall. Mike Holmgren has taken over in the front office and not surprisingly, there has been a lot of turnover in the personnel department.

Both QBs (Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn) are gone in favor of veteran Jake Delhomme, who once took the Panthers to the Super Bowl but had an abysmal 8/18 TD-INT ratio for Carolina in 2009. His competition is Senaca Wallace, who has plenty of experience from filling in for oft-injured Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck.

Now let’s examine the AFC East, which has the Jets with a win total of 9 ½ ‘under’ (minus-125) per Sportsbook.com. I like this ‘over’ for a plus-105 return and still have the J-E-T-S under consideration as possibly being my pick to win the Super Bowl.

Is there any team in the NFL that brought in more proven talent than the Jets during the offseason? The answer is a resounding ‘no.’ GM Mike Tannenbaum has been a busy man, trading for WR Santonio Holmes and CB Antonio Cromartie, in addition to signing the likes of pass-rushing specialist Jason Taylor and record-setting RB LaDainian Tomlinson.

We know Tomlinson has lost a few steps but with Thomas Jones gone, the veteran will be an excellent back-up to Shonn Greene. The club also brought in a pair of talented players through the draft that can make an instant impact. CB Kyle Wilson was the team’s first-round selection, and the All-American from Boise St. is a playmaker. Look for him in nickel and dime packages from the get-go and he could be a capable fill-in for Cromartie or Darrelle Revis, especially if the Pro-Bowler’s potential holdout becomes an issue. Finally, the Jets got great value with their fourth-round pick, Joe McKnight from USC, who can be a home-run threat on special teams.

New England’s win total is also 9 ½ shaded to the ‘over’ by a minus-125 price. Miami’s number is 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-120), while Buffalo has a win total of 5 ½ ‘under’ (minus-130).

The Pats continue to bring in past-their-prime veterans on the cheap. This time around, those players include WR Torry Holt, DT Gerard Warren and TE Alge Crumpler. In terms of fresh, young talent, Bill Belichick drafted a trio of Florida Gators who should get significant playing time as rookies.

Those UF products include DE Jermaine Cunningham, All-American LB Brandon Spikes and All-American TE Aaron Hernandez. The tight end is a special talent who certainly would’ve been a first-rounder if not for pre-draft rumors linking him to marijuana use. I think you look at the ‘over’ for the Pats or pass.

That’ll conclude our look at win totals for AFC teams, but be sure to check back this week for my breakdown of win tallies for the NFC squads.

[vols fan]

Yep, they're in trouble

When they shit canned my cousin Alex last year I said I hope they lose every game. He did end up as QB coach in Tampa Bay so he said the weather will be a little better

[StarDust Bum]

Will Favre be back?

While most seem to assume that Brett Favre will be back in the saddle at QB for the Vikings this fall, forecasts in the Twin Cities remain provisional until the Wrangler Jeans guy makes his plans official. And he might not until sometime late in the summer...and even then he might be likely to change his mind. Remember, it wasn't until last August 18 that Favre finally decided to sign up for what seemed was one last hurrah with Minnesota. But even that came after announcing he was going to stay retired after his late-season flameout with the Jets in 2008 indicated he might finally be past his sell-by date. Moreover, Favre's ankle woes (and resultant May surgery) have cast further doubt over his intentions. Such twists and turns, however, have been commonplace in the recent Favre soap opera that has been mirroring the act Roger Clemens (you remember him, don't you?) seemed to have perfected in the last few years of his pitching career when bouncing between the Astros and Yankees.

Of course, even Favre (who became a grandpa last April and turns 41 in October) might have had a hard time envisioning the rebirth he experienced a year ago, when he led the Vikings to the cusp of the Super Bowl while throwing 33 TDP and only 7 picks. And most observers believe there's a method to Favre's dilly-dallying these days; by this stage of his career, Favre views training camp as an unnecessary exercise, and he realizes that recurring shoulder issues might limit the number of throws he has in his arm each year. Indeed, his fastball lost lots of zip late in his only season with the Jets in '08, and for a time it seemed as if Favre's arm might be going dead again last December. No reason to waste those throws at training camp and some meaningless preseason games in the heat of early and mid-August, eh? And now he's got the ankle to worry about. It's worth noting that HC Brad Childress (outwardly, at least) is allowing Favre to set his own timetable with his decision to enlist or not enlist for another tour of duty, although their relationship didn't always appear so cordial a year ago, especially when Favre refused to be removed from the game and Childress was highly critical of a sloppy 26-7 Sunday night loss at Carolina last December 20.

Childress, however, was prepared to go to war without Favre in 2009, and still has those battle plans available just in case. Remember, before the thought of adding Favre, Childress had acquired serviceable Sage Rosenfels from Houston as an alternative to erratic Tarvaris Jackson, who had blown hot and cold in his stint as Childress' starter and was particularly wretched in a WIld Card Round playoff loss vs. the Eagles in 2008. Rosenfels and Jackson are still around and ready, if needed, beyond early preseason games vs. the Rams and 49ers when they will assuredly be featured, and Childress' faith in those two was reflected in his decision to bypass QBs Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy when both were available in April's draft (although UAB's Joe Webb, a 6th-round pick, is now likely to be given a look at QB after being drafted as a WR).

Aside from Favre, most of the pieces are in place from LY's Minnesota team whose own self-inflicted wounds cost it the NFC title game in overtime at New Orleans. The core of Viking playmakers continue to rival the league's best; all-everything RB Adrian Peterson (1383 YR and 18 TDs LY) is still the featured component, but WR Sidney Rice had a breakout '09 when nabbing 83 receptions to emerge as one of the NFL's most-feared downfield threats. And don't forget cat-quick Percy Harvin, who reprised his versatile role at Florida when catching 60 passes and gaining 9 ypc on well-spaced runs that helped him to NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Although versatile RB Chester Taylor (who could effectively spell Peterson) left for the Bears, 2nd-round draftee Toby Gerhart from Stanford should be able to fill that backup role with a bit more thud, while PK Ryan Longwell (26 of 28 FGs LY) remains as consistent as the cold Minneapolis winter.

Meanwhile, d.c. Leslie Frazier's platoon should continue to disrupt, if not dominate, out of its base Tampa Two schemes that are aided by an occasional blitz package designed to keep foes from ganging up on DE Jared Allen, who terrorized Dallas QB Tony Romo in the Vikes' playoff romp and has recorded 29 sacks the past two years. Minnesota was also again near the top (No. 2) in rush "D," thanks to DTs Kevin and Pat Williams, who effectively plug the middle. If there are concerns, they're at CB, where the status of Cedric Griffin's knee prompted the signing of vet FA Lito Sheppard, and where on the other side 33-year-old Antoine Winfield (off a broken foot) might be slipping.

Bottom line...Although it's worth remembering that the Vikes were a playoff team with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte piloting the offense in '08, Minnesota was a legit Super Bowl threat with Favre; no wonder Childress is giving Brett all the room he needs to make his decision for this fall. Which means the "Favre watch" will again be the top story this summer in the Twin Cities and the upper Midwest.

[StarDust Bum]

Jaguars hoping to pick up the pieces in 2010

The Jaguars have certainly headed the wrong direction since their successful 2007 campaign, winning just 12 games in the two seasons since. Last year the botton fell out for this team in the final month, as they lost their final four games to fall out of the playoff pictures. So, with little momentum nor any noteworthy offseason acquisitions, Jacksonville fans aren't exactly singing the praises of their team heading into 2010. We continue our look at each NFL team's prospects, today focusing on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
2009 Record:7-9 (-0.8 ML Units), 5-11 ATS
DIVISION:AFC South
COACH:Jack Del Rio, 8th year (58-57 SU, 55-57 ATS)
STADIUM:Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, AFC Title:30 to 1
******* Power Rating:15 (#24 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-6.5 (#25 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 7-9 ~ 24-26 (48%)
ATS: 5-11 ~ 21-29 (42%)
Preseason ATS: 2-1 ~ 7-4 (64%)
Home ATS: 2-6 ~ 8-16 (33%)
Road ATS: 3-5 ~ 13-13 (50%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 8-10 (44%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 17-21 (45%)
Favorite ATS: 0-5 ~ 7-15 (32%)
Underdog ATS: 5-6 ~ 14-14 (50%)
Over-Under: 8-8 ~ 27-21 (56%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -5.6 (#25 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -15.3 (#22 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.39 (#23 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -3.82 (#28 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +2 (#13 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 336.8 (#18 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 352.1 (#22 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.81 (14th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - DENVER, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at San Diego, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 4:05 PM
10/3/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:05 PM
10/10/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
10/18/10 - TENNESSEE, 8:30 PM
10/24/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Dallas, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - HOUSTON, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - OAKLAND, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at Houston, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


Over the L2 seasons, JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) as home favorites. The Average Score was JACKSONVILLE 18.8, OPPONENT 22.7

2010 OUTLOOK
It’s not hard to figure out why the fans don’t show up to Jacksonville games. The Jaguars were one of the worst teams in the NFL in PPG, despite possessing one of the league’s top offensive stars in RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The problem is, the rest of the team is a mess. QB David Garrard has regressed, and there are problems galore with the defense…Garrard has yet to show that he is an elite signal-caller. He completed 314 of 516 pass attempts for 3,597 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year, but twice failed to lead the team to game-winning drives late in the season. Jones-Drew was given a chance to carry the load on his own last year and he responded with a second-team All-Pro campaign in which he rushed for career highs in carries (312), yards (1,391) and touchdowns (16). Surprisingly, the Jaguars did not draft a WR to help a beleaguered unit, but they did pick one up in free agency, Kassim Osgood (Chargers). Garrard was hit plenty, so the line needs to step up…The Jaguars’ woes on defense (27th in the NFL against the pass, 23rd overall) started with the pass rush, or rather the lack of it. They recorded a league-low 14 sacks, the fifth-lowest total in NFL history, so the Jags’ first four draft picks were spent on the line. The Jaguars also traded for middle LB Kirk Morrison, who had 133 tackles and two sacks with the Raiders last season…With the Colts expected to be their usual explosive selves and the Texans on the rise, it looks like the best the Jaguars can do is battle the Titans to stay out of the AFC South basement. If Jacksonville does not respond this season, it could be the end of the road for head coach Jack Del Rio.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7
******* Steve's Take: Jacksonville was 7-9 a year ago, matching the regular season win prop set for 2010. At this point, you have to ask yourself…is there any reason the Jaguars should be better this fall? With Indy still the class of the AFC South, and Houston and Tennessee in better shape, I just can't see this team winning more than they did a year ago. Plus, they're 9-23 ATS over the last two seasons, an indicator of a spiraling team. UNDER

[StarDust Bum]

Chiefs emulating Patriots' run of success

It's been said that Bill Belichick's Patriots have laid the blueprint for success in this era of NFL football. It such is true, the Chiefs have to be hoping that getting Belichick's top two coordinators from their Super Bowl run is the answer to what has been ailing the Kansas City franchise. The Chiefs have won just 10 games in three seasons but by most accounts, look ready to make a jump in the suspect AFC West Division. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2009 Record:4-12 (-2.2 ML Units), 7-9 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Todd Haley, 2nd year (4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS)
STADIUM:Arrowhead Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, AFC Title:50 to 1
******* Power Rating:13 (#27 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-8.8 (#29 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 4-12 ~ 10-38 (21%)
ATS: 7-9 ~ 22-25 (47%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 1-11 (8%)
Home ATS: 2-6 ~ 6-17 (26%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 16-8 (67%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 17-19 (47%)
Favorite ATS: 0-2 ~ 0-6 (0%)
Underdog ATS: 7-7 ~ 22-19 (54%)
Over-Under: 9-5 ~ 25-21 (54%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -8.1 (#27 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -86.3 (#28 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.09 (#28 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -1.75 (#24 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +1 (#15 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 301.8 (#25 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 388.1 (#30 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18 (30th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/13/10 - SAN DIEGO, 10:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - at Oakland, 4:15 PM
11/14/10 - at Denver, 4:05 PM
11/21/10 - ARIZONA, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Seattle, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 - DENVER, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at San Diego, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - at St Louis, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - OAKLAND, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


KANSAS CITY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since '07. The Average Score was KANSAS CITY 21.1, OPPONENT 22

2010 OUTLOOK
The Chiefs have won just 10 games combined since ‘07, including a 4-12 mark in head coach Todd Haley’s debut. Changes needed to be made so Kansas City went out and hired the two most successful assistant coaches on the market, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, who helped orchestrate the New England “dynasty”…Weis takes over an offense that ranked just 25th in the NFL with 303.2 YPG. His first order of business is molding QB Matt Cassel into a player worthy of a $63 million contract. Cassel has the tools, but was inconsistent in his first season with the Chiefs, matching 16 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. Weis will get to work with arguably the best backfield of his coaching career as emerging Jamaal Charles is joined by veteran Thomas Jones (Jets) and all-purpose threat Dexter McCluster (2a-Ole Miss). Dwayne Bowe returns as Cassel’s favorite target. The line needs to improve after allowing 42 sacks. Center Casey Wiegmann (Broncos) and guard Ryan Lilja (Colts)—were signed to bring a veteran presence…Crennel may have an even harder task than Weis as he builds a defense that ranked 31st in the league against the run (156.5 YPG) and 30th overall (388.2). To help with stopping the run, the Chiefs are mulling the idea of moving end Glenn Dorsey to nose tackle. The LB corps was a surprise last year when the Chiefs moved to a 3-4 scheme. Former end Tamba Hali came on strong as an outside linebacker and the team’s top two tacklers—Demorrio Williams and Corey Mays are back. The secondary needed some help, and got it in Eric Berry (1-Tennessee), perhaps the finest all around player available in this past draft…There’s plenty to be optimistic about in Kansas City, and the Chiefs could finish as high as second in the AFC West, but are still steps below the Chargers.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 6.5
******* Steve's Take: I am convinced that either Kansas City or Oakland will be much-improved in 2010, and considering that the Chiefs have the 3rd weakest schedule in the NFL, it could very likely be them. Still, winning seven games would mean a 3-game improvement, somewhat significant. I see better things for 2011 or 2012 but will slightly lean OVER for this fall.