Bills buried at bottom of loaded AFC East

[StarDust Bum]

It's been up & down for Dolphins of late

It's been a roller coaster ride for the Miami franchise over the last six or seven years, as the Dolphins have had little success in putting good campaigns back-to-back. This past season, they dropped from 11 to 7 wins and out of the playoffs. However, with Chad Henne now in the unquestioned role of starting quarterback and the key acquisition of wide receiver Brandon Marshall, Miami may have the pieces in place to get back to the postseason. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Miami Dolphins.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
2009 Record:7-9 (-1.3 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC East
COACH:Tony Sparano, 3rd year (18-15 SU, 16-17 ATS)
STADIUM:Dolphins Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:40 to 1, AFC Title:15 to 1
******* Power Rating:20 (#16 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+0.3 (#18 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 7-9 ~ 19-30 (39%)
ATS: 8-8 ~ 21-26 (45%)
Preseason ATS: 3-0 ~ 8-3 (73%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 6-18 (25%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 15-8 (65%)
Division ATS: 5-1 ~ 10-7 (59%)
Conference ATS: 7-5 ~ 19-17 (53%)
Favorite ATS: 1-3 ~ 3-10 (23%)
Underdog ATS: 7-5 ~ 18-16 (53%)
Over-Under: 9-6 ~ 24-24 (50%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -1.9 (#20 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -12 (#20 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.82 (#26 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.68 (#19 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -7 (#24 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 339.4 (#17 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 351.4 (#21 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.88 (13th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - NY JETS, 8:20 PM
10/4/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 8:30 PM
10/17/10 - at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
11/18/10 - CHICAGO, 8:20 PM
11/28/10 - at Oakland, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at NY Jets, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at New England, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


MIAMI is on a 11-0 UNDER the total (+11 Units) run at home revenging a home loss against opponent The Average Score was MIAMI 19.4, OPPONENT 14

2010 OUTLOOK
A hiccup was expected in some respects after Miami improved from one win to 11 in head coach Tony Sparano’s first season at the helm. But rest assured that director of football operations, Bill Parcells, will not be happy with another mediocre showing in the win column. The Dolphins weathered a storm of injuries that knocked out a host of key players on both sides of the ball to find themselves in the thick of the playoff race in December…QB Chad Henne had a solid year considering the lackluster supporting cast he was surrounded by. The top three wide receivers combined for five touchdowns between them as Miami focused its offense around the tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in the backfield. So Parcells and his team acquired Brandon Marshall (Broncos) for two draft picks and gave their franchise QB exactly what he needed, a franchise wide receiver. On his own, Marshall grabbed 10 touchdowns—and finished third in the NFL with 101 receptions. Defenses should no longer be able load up on the run. Guards Richie Incognito (Bills) joins an emerging line that also includes left tackle Jake Long…Much like the offense, the defense lacked an impact player, but Parcells and the coaching staff added more than one single player to turn around a unit that finished No. 22 in the NFL. The signing of Karlos Dansby (Cardinals) was the big ticket move, but the team also used seven of its eight draft picks on defense… All things being equal, the Jets are the clear alpha dog in the AFC East. The Patriots, however, could be ripe for the taking. Don’t be fooled by Miami’s stumble to the finish. The return of Brown and addition of Marshall might be enough to push the Dolphins back over the playoff bubble.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
******* Steve's Take: There are a number of things I'm not sold on about this Miami team. First, Chad Henne is not an automatic for me at QB yet. Second, any team that runs the wildcat as regularly as the Dolphins is relying too much on gimmicks. Third, Miami ranked 20th in the NFL last year in scoring and yardage differential. Fourth, and finally, I'm not ready to dismiss New England yet. It all adds up to a playoff-less season in South Beach. UNDER.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC Win Totals

We examined the AFC recently, so now it’s time to touch on the NFC win totals. Let’s start with the NFC South and the defending Super Bowl champs, the New Orleans Saints.

Sean Payton’s squad has a win tally of 10 1/2 ‘under’ (minus-120) at Sportsbook.com, which has 20-cent lines for these types of wagers. Therefore, gamblers can get an even-money price to take ‘under’ 10 ½ for the Saints.

I loved New Orleans’ only major off-season addition, inking former Chicago Bear defensive end Alex Brown via free agency. He’ll take the place of DE Bobby McCray, who was subsequently released. The draft netted a cover corner in FSU’s Patrick Robinson, but this space is skeptical of Robinson being an impact player as a rookie.

Most importantly, all 11 starters return for the club’s high-octane offense led by Drew Brees. This unit will get back OT Jamaal Brown, who missed 2009 with an injury. From the draft, depth was added to the o-line with second-round pick Charles Brown from out of USC. In the third round, GM Mickey Loomis selected Miami TE Jimmy Graham, who only played one year of football for the ‘Canes after being a basketball player. He has great size and athleticism that could turn him into the next Antonio Gates, although his hands must improve and drops like Graham had against Va. Tech last year won’t be tolerated at the next level.

The Saints will open with the Vikings at the Superdome before playing at San Francisco on Monday Night Football in Week 2. They play at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day with a chance to avenge their first loss of the 2009 campaign back in the Big Easy. Not sure if I’ll play it, but I lean to the ‘over’ for New Orleans, which looks like an 11-5 team or better assuming Brees is healthy for 16 games.

Atlanta is coming off a 9-7 season that represented the organization’s first time compiling a winning record in consecutive years. However, the Falcons came up short in their late-season quest for a playoff berth. Mid-season injuries to QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner (right when he was really getting it going) were a factor, and an overtime loss to the Giants proved to be the team’s undoing.

In 2010, Mike Smith’s squad has a win total of nine with Sportsbook.com shading the ‘over’ at minus-140. The Falcons play at Pittsburgh in Week 1 when the Steelers won’t have Ben Roethlisberger. They are short ‘chalk’ in the opener and will most likely be favored in road games at Cleveland, at St. Louis and at Tampa Bay.

I’m not crazy about the minus-140 price tag but if you can play ‘over’ nine for the Falcons at a better rate, I think that’s the way to go.

Carolina has a win total of 7 ½ ‘under’ (minus-160) in what’s most likely a make-or-break year for John Fox’s tenure in Charlotte. Former QB Jake Delhomme couldn’t overcome his atrocious performance in the 2008 postseason home loss to Arizona, throwing 18 interceptions compared to just eight TD passes last season. That led to his exit from the Panthers, who also lost long-time Pro-Bowl DE Julius Peppers.

Matt Moore will try to hold off rookie second-round pick Jimmy Clausen for the starting spot under center. Moore played well in December, leading the Panthers to four wins in their last five games.

The ‘under’ is the play here, but I wouldn’t bet on it at the ‘chalky’ minus-160 price.

Finally, Tampa Bay rounds out the NFC South loop. The Bucs were predictably bad in ’09 and if their season win total (5 ½ ‘over’ -130) is an indicator, they are bound to struggle again this year.

Josh Freeman will look to improve on his rookie campaign in which he was thrust into a tough situation on a bad team. He had his moments, but the 10/18 touchdown-interception ratio tells the story. Freeman won’t have his best WR in Antonio Bryant anymore, but rookie Arrelious Benn (Illinois) should make an impact right away. Most notably, TE Kellen Winslow will try to duplicate a 77-catch season.

With the Bucs clearly not ready to contend, bettors should consider the ‘under’ or just pass.

Moving to the NFC East, Dallas owns the highest win total at 9 ½ ‘over’ (minus-180). Bettors can earn a lucrative plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160) by backing the ‘under.’

The Cowboys finally got their first postseason win in more than a decade last year, lifting a monster monkey off the franchise’s back. Tony Romo showed maturity and improvement which coincided with the belated absence of a certain team cancer that goes by the moniker of T.O.

In a change of pace from the norm, Jerry Jones and Co. were relatively idle during the offseason. The Cowboys return 20 of 22 starters and might benefit most from the addition of rookie WR Dez Bryant. The biggest loss was OT Flozell Adams, who did an excellent job of protecting the blind side of Dallas QBs for 12 years.

Philadelphia decided to pull the plug on the Donovan McNabb Era, so we’re poised to find out what Kevin Kolb is all about in 2010. This space has always been a huge supporter of McNabb, whose accomplishments were never fully appreciated by the masses in Philadelphia. Brian Westbrook is also gone and with the recent exits of Brian Dawkins and Jeremiah Trotter, there is a leadership void in the Eagles’ locker room.

On the bright side, there’s still dynamic playmaker DeSean Jackson, who had 62 receptions for 1,156 yards and nine touchdowns in ’09. Kolb also has another speedy weapon in Jeremy Maclin, in addition to one of the NFC’s top tight ends in Brent Celek (76 catches for 971 yards and eight TDs in ’09).

Andy Reid’s team has a win tally of 8 ½ ‘under’ (minus-130). I’ll pass but would go ‘under’ if I had to pick it.

Washington traded for McNabb and immediately got a major upgrade at the most important position on the field. The Redskins are hoping first-round pick Trent Williams can start right away and provide protection for McNabb.

Sportsbook.com has the ‘Skins set with a win total of 7 ½ flat (minus-110 either way).

As for the Giants, gamblers are looking at 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-125). They had better go ‘over’ or Tom Coughlin might be out of a job, especially after a pair of blowout losses to end the season at 8-8 in ‘09.

The G-Men are rebuilding their much-maligned secondary, as evidenced by the additions of veteran safeties Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant. However, third-round pick Chad Jones was seriously injured in a recent car wreck and his broken leg is expected to keep him out in 2010 and perhaps beyond. This is a huge loss because Jones, a two-sport star in football and baseball at LSU, is a first-round talent.

The defense lost its heart and soul in LB Antonio Pierce, but I like the first-round selection of Jason Pierre-Paul, who could be a pass-rushing force from the get-go. The offense should thrive, returning all 11 starters. Nevertheless, I think you pass on the G-Men because of some questions marks on defense, in addition to the uncertainty around the Eagles and ‘Skins, two division rivals who are breaking in new QBs.

In the NFC West, Arizona took a huge hit when Kurt Warner decided to hang up his cleats. Therefore, we’re going to find out if Matt Leinart has it or not. If he doesn’t, head coach Ken Whisenhunt has Derek Anderson as a Plan B. Whoever is under center, he won’t have Anquan Boldin but will have perhaps the NFL’s premier wideout in Larry Fitzgerald.

Boldin and Warner aren’t the only long-time Cardinals who won’t be around after back-to-back playoff appearances. LB Karlos Dansby, DE Bertrand Berry, CB Bryant McFadden and safety Antrel Rolle have all left the desert. The result is lower expectations from the oddsmakers, who have the Cardinals with a win total of 7 ½ that’s shaded to the ‘over’ (minus-125) at Sportsbook.com.

Arizona did sign a pair of former Pro-Bowlers in LB Joey Porter and OG Alan Faneca. Also, I think first-round pick Dan Williams from out of Tennessee can start as a rookie. The defensive losses would concern me if I was considering the ‘over,’ but I’m one of those that believes Leinart is going to be solid (not great by any means, but a better-than-average starting QB).

Seattle certainly made a splash by luring Southern Cal’s Pete Carroll back to the NFL. His non-stop enthusiasm appears to have been happily accepted by the Seahawks players here in the early going of mini-camps and whatnot. But as we know, winning is the only thing that matters in this league, so we’ll see if Carroll’s third tour of duty as an NFL head coach turns out to be successful.

If that’s going to happen in Year 1, veteran signal caller Matt Hasselbeck has to stay healthy and return to the form he demonstrated in leading Seattle to the Super Bowl several years back. Hasselbeck could get some help from second-round pick Golden Tate, who was a playmaker during his college days at Notre Dame.

Tate isn’t the only rookie Carroll is expecting to produce right away. The Seahawks plucked Oklahoma St. OT Russell Okung with its No. 6 pick and then nabbed Earl Thomas, who some felt was the best cover corner in this draft.

Seattle’s tally is 7 ½ ‘under’ (minus-140).

San Francisco has been saddled with a win total of 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-145). The 49ers, who went 8-8 in ’09, return all 22 starters but a lingering question remains: Is Alex Smith a playoff-caliber NFL quarterback?

Without a doubt, Frank Gore is that type of player. The workhorse RB rushed for 1,120 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 4.9 yards per carry last season. Vernon Davis, the TE out of Maryland, enjoyed a breakout year with 78 receptions for 965 yards and 13 TD grabs. On the defensive side, LB Patrick Willis is in his prime and might be the best player in all of football.

Nevertheless, I can’t trust Smith, or back-up David Carr, to lead the Niners to nine victories. I have to pass on their win total.

Expectations aren’t high in St. Louis and its win total of five ‘under’ (minus-120) makes that clear. The Rams took Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford with the No. 1 pick and most expect the rookie to start immediately. He has one of the best RBs in football (Steven Jackson) to lean on, but the rest of the supporting cast is shaky at best.

We wrap up the NFC with the North Division. Minnesota and Green Bay both have 9 ½ as their numbers, but it’s more expensive (minus-160) to take the ‘over’ for the Packers. The Vikings have the ‘over’ shaded by minus-125 at Sportsbook.com.

Aaron Rodgers threw for 4,434 yards with a 30/7 TD-INT ratio en route to taking Green Bay back to the playoffs, where he nearly orchestrated an improbable comeback win in an overtime loss at Arizona. All of his cohorts on offense are back. In fact, the lone starter that’s not returning is DE Aaron Kampman.

The Vikings have completely stood pat as well, returning all 22 starters. They did get a potential impact player in Stanford RB Toby Gerhart, who was a second-round pick. I expect Sidney Rice to continue to improve and with Brett Favre staying healthy as always, there’s no reason to think the Minny offense won’t click on all cylinders once again.

I’m real bullish on the ‘over’ for the Vikings, who I have going 11-5.

Chicago is hoping for better results in the second year of the Jay Cutler Era. The former Bronco threw an NFL-high 26 interceptions last season. If Cutler can’t cut the picks in half, it’s nearly a given that head coach Lovie Smith will be looking for a new job. The Bears have a win total of eight ‘over’ (minus-120).

Detroit has only won two games the last two years, but there are signs that things are about to get better. QB Matthew Stafford showed a lot of potential as a rookie and he has one of the best WRs in football in Calvin Johnson.

The Lions added a pair of outstanding veterans in DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and TE Tony Scheffler. In the draft, the No. 2 pick netted Ndamukong Suh, who I expect to be a Pro-Bowler as a rookie. They also drafted a playmaker in Jahvid Best, a speedy RB who enjoyed a stellar collegiate career at California.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Like the Matt Flynn-Brian Brohm situation in Green Bay a few years ago, don’t be shocked if Carolina’s sixth-round pick Tony Pike turns out to be better than Clausen, a second-rounder.

--Vintage third-round pick by Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff: Alabama OG Mike Johnson. He’s a guarantee to be a starter for years to come.

--The Falcons also get their 2009 first-round pick Peria Jerry back after he sustained a season-ending ACL injury in Week 2. Jerry, who dominated SEC foes as a senior at Ole Miss in ’08, should wreak havoc on opposing backfields if his knee is back to 100 percent.

--I loved the value the Eagles got out of their late-round picks like Kentucky CB Trevard Lindley (4th), Clemson LB Ricky Sapp (5th), Florida WR Riley Cooper (5th), LSU RB Charles Scott (6th), Mississippi St. LB Jamar Chaney (7th) and Georgia DT Jeff Owens (7th).

[StarDust Bum]

Redskins preview

The first thought we had in January, right after HC Mike Shanahan was hired by the Redskins as Jim Zorn's replacement following last year's 4-12 crash-and-burn, is that considering the egos involved, pairing Shanahan with owner Dan Snyder might not be a good idea. Not to mention the fact that "The Shan" is Snyder's seventh coach since buying the franchise in 1999. But we can't believe that Shanahan, a two-time Super Bowl winner at Denver before being unceremoniously canned by owner Pat Bowlen after the '08 campaign, didn't go into the deal in D.C. with his eyes wide open, with some assurances that Snyder would not involve himself in the franchise's nuts-and-bolts football decisions, as he has been known to do in the past.

Which is why the other new component in the Redskins' braintrust, GM Bruce Allen, looms as such an intriguing piece in Washington's new puzzle. Among other things, Allen will likely be playing the role of buffer between The Shan and Snyder, a role with which he has familiarity after working between Jon Gruden and Al Davis at Oakland, then more recently between Gruden and the Glazers at Tampa Bay. Not to mention Allen's own keen understanding of Redskin history after papa George coached the team from 1971-77.

Still, there should be a couple of things Shanahan would do well to remember as he begins his new job.

1) Dan Snyder. For the moment, all appears to be calm with the new Skin power structure, but let's see how it all works when events play out in real time. Many Beltway observers don't believe Snyder will be able to step aside so gently, and suspect that Allen will eventually find out that the boss will not necessarily defer to him on critical issues. Moreover, as well-intentioned as the new front office might be, Snyder is never going to set himself up as the fall guy if personnel decisions (even those of his own making) go wrong. Snyder will cleverly let Allen first, then Shanahan, take the heat for any bad personnel moves. It is worth noting that of Snyder's Redskin coaches, only the sainted Joe Gibbs lasted more than two seasons, with even strong-willed types such as Steve Spurrier and Marty Schottenheimer reduced to bit players in the Snyder drama.

2) NFC East. Shanahan will also be dealing in a much tougher neighborhood than the AFC West in which he resided for 14 seasons between 1995-2008. Although one among the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers was usually formidable at any given time during Shan's Denver years, rarely was more than one good at the same time. Which is unlike the NFC East, where Jerry Jones has the money and wherewithal to regularly beat Snyder, and the Giants and Eagles also like to win every bit as much as the Cowboys...and Skins.

Realizing the limitations within the roster he inherited, Shanahan was aggressive in re-molding the lineup in the offseason. The Skins were were active participants in the first wave of free agency, signing eight players, including former All-Pro RBs Larry Johnson & Willie Parker, while cutting six veterans. But the biggest splash came on Easter, when the Bunny delivered QB Donovan McNabb in a trade from the Eagles, prompting the subsequent deal of holdover QB Jason Campbell to the Raiders.

McNabb figures as an upgrade over Campbell, but at 34 and with a litany of injuries lately, how much a leaky OL improves will be key, because Shanahan would probably rather not have to trust backup QB Rex Grossman in relief of a banged-up McNabb. First-round pick T Trent Williams from Oklahoma indicates Shanahan's OL emphasis. Shan's son Kyle is also the new o.c.; while at Houston LY, Kyle's Texans led the NFL in passing, and a more-complex offense should be no problem for McNabb to absorb. It's also hoped that aging RBs Johnson, Parker, and Clinton Portis (reunited with Shan from long-ago Bronco days) will benefit as the OL becomes more comfy with the zone-blocking schemes that served Shan well in Denver. Still-quick WR Santana Moss and TEs Chris Cooley and Fred Davis give McNabb some viable targets.

New d.c. Jim Haslett is similarly revamping a stop unit that might have some different problems with disgruntled DT Albert Haynesworth & LB Rocky McIntosh skipping offseason workouts. Just in case Haynesworth succeeds in forcing a trade, reinforcements (DE Adam Carriker & NT Maake Kemoeatu) have been added along the DL, while Haslett is overhauling responsibilities for the LBs and DBs in his 3-4 schemes. Which, by the way, are made for pass-rushing OLBs, where it's hoped 2009 rookie star Brian Orapko can flourish.

Bottom line...The additions of McNabb, competition for Portis at RB, youth in the OL, veteran muscle to the DL, plus a new offense and defense suggest Shanahan's new-look Skins will likely be unrecognizable from the last time we saw their shell of a team at the end of last season. Enough to improve several wins from a year ago? Probably. Enough to contend in the NFC East and get in the playoff mix? Let's not get too carried away.

[StarDust Bum]

Vikings hoping to make another run at it

Almost everything about the Minnesota Vikings' 2009 season was magical, that is except for the nightmarish ending. What had gone so well for Brett Favre & the Vikings turned in an instant on an interception in the NFC title game. While Favre has yet to commit for 2010, most experts believe he is coming back. Still, it might be difficult to recapture the magic that defined his first campaign with the team. Let's look closer at the prospects of the 2010 Minnesota Vikings as our season previews continue.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2009 Record:13-5 (+2 ML Units), 11-6 ATS
DIVISION:NFC North
COACH:Brad Childress, 5th year (37-30 SU, 31-33 ATS)
STADIUM:Metrodome
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:15 to 1, NFC Title:7 to 1
******* Power Rating:29 (#3 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+9.4 (#2 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 13-5 ~ 31-20 (61%)
ATS: 11-6 ~ 24-24 (50%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 7-5 (58%)
Home ATS: 6-2 ~ 13-12 (52%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 11-12 (48%)
Division ATS: 4-1 ~ 7-9 (44%)
Conference ATS: 9-4 ~ 18-19 (49%)
Favorite ATS: 9-5 ~ 16-13 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 2-1 ~ 8-8 (50%)
Over-Under: 9-9 ~ 27-24 (53%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +9.9 (#2 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +74.1 (#3 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.56 (#10 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.76 (#7 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +6 (#8 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 379.6 (#6 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 305.5 (#6 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.63 (18th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/9/10 - at New Orleans, 8:30 PM
9/19/10 - MIAMI, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
10/11/10 - at NY Jets, 8:30 PM
10/17/10 - DALLAS, 4:15 PM
10/24/10 - at Green Bay, 8:20 PM
10/31/10 - at New England, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - ARIZONA, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Washington, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM
12/20/10 - CHICAGO, 8:30 PM
12/26/10 - at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


MINNESOTA is on a 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) skid vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less PYA The Average Score was MINNESOTA 22.3, OPPONENT 21.4

2010 OUTLOOK
Brett Favre and the Vikings caught lightning in a bottle last fall, but missed out on a trip to the Super Bowl when Favre threw a costly late interception in the devastating 31-28 overtime loss at New Orleans. As difficult an ending it was, the road to the conference title game had few bumps and many Hollywood moments. Favre’s offseason ankle surgery suggests he’s coming back for more, and there’s no reason to believe Minnesota isn’t capable of an encore…Only the Saints scored more points than the Vikings, who averaged 29.4 PPG. They ranked fifth in total yards (379.6 per game) as well and picking up where they left off should be no problem. Favre would be coming off what he’s calling the best season of his 19-year career. The air attack features a bona fide star in Sidney Rice, who broke out with 83 receptions, 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns. RB Adrian Peterson is the best in the business but had trouble holding onto the ball for the first time in his career, fumbling nine times. The front line returns intact, and is considered one of the league’s best…Running the ball against the Vikings hasn’t been a good idea since 2006. The stop unit has led the league in rushing defense for three consecutive seasons and ranked No. 2 a year ago. The unit wasn’t too shabby against the pass, either, topping the league in sacks with 48. DE Jared Allen has been a nightmare for opposing offenses in his two years in Minnesota. If there’s any weakness, the secondary could prove porous…The Vikings are seeking a third straight playoff appearance and probably won’t be pleased with anything less than a trip to the Super Bowl. Assuming Favre is a go, they’ve got all the pieces in place and will be playing in January.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
******* Steve's Take: Assuming Favre comes back, Minnesota is as good as it was last season, that is at least, on paper. A lot of what happened last season was as a result of a wave of momentum. I can't possibly see it going as well this fall as last. With the league's most difficult road schedule, this one is going to be tough, but a shaky OVER for me. 10-6.

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots out to prove detractors wrong in 2010

There are many football fans out there that believe the Patriots' home loss to Baltimore last Januray, the first in the Bill Belichick era, signaled the end of the dynasty. Others argue it may have ended in the Super Bowl XLII loss since they haven't won a playoff game since. Regardless, it's quite obvious that New England has to earn its respect back as they are no longer the feared team they once were. In fact, they aren't even the favorite in the AFC East this fall. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 New England Patriots.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2009 Record:10-7 (-0.7 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC East
COACH:Bill Belichick, 11th year (126-52 SU, 101-73 ATS)
STADIUM:Gillette Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:10 to 1, AFC Title:5 to 1
******* Power Rating:26 (#9 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+8.4 (#3 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 10-7 ~ 39-13 (75%)
ATS: 8-8 ~ 27-24 (53%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 4-8 (33%)
Home ATS: 5-4 ~ 13-14 (48%)
Road ATS: 3-4 ~ 14-10 (58%)
Division ATS: 1-4 ~ 9-8 (53%)
Conference ATS: 6-6 ~ 21-17 (55%)
Favorite ATS: 6-7 ~ 24-22 (52%)
Underdog ATS: 2-1 ~ 3-2 (60%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 26-24 (52%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +7.2 (#7 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +68.4 (#5 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.38 (#12 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.08 (#11 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +6 (#8 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 385.5 (#4 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 317.1 (#9 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.63 (4th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at NY Jets, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
10/4/10 - at Miami, 8:30 PM
10/17/10 - BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at San Diego, 4:15 PM
10/31/10 - MINNESOTA, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM
11/21/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:15 PM
11/25/10 - at Detroit, 12:30 PM
12/6/10 - NY JETS, 8:30 PM
12/12/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - GREEN BAY, 8:20 PM
12/26/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - MIAMI, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


NEW ENGLAND is on a 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) run vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) The Average Score was NEW ENGLAND 24.9, OPPONENT 16

2010 OUTLOOK
For years Bill Belichick has had the perfect blend of veterans, players hitting their prime and rookies to learn the ropes of the system, allowing the Patriots to turn in a dynasty that lasted nearly a decade. But after New England had its doors blown off by Baltimore in the wild-card round, 33-14, it was evident that the equation changed enough to force drastic changes or the Patriots risked getting buried in the AFC. Belichick is set to take over the controls on both offense and defense as he tries to steady the ship…As long as Tom Brady is healthy—and that was a major question last season despite 4,398 yards passing and 28 touchdowns—he’ll carry the offense on his right arm. The weapons surrounding him are getting older, most notably Randy Moss (33 years old), but the offensive line is still at the top of its game, so protection shouldn’t be an issue. And when Brady has time to throw, he’ll find the open guy. Brady was sacked just 16 times and despite the lack of a dominant runner—Laurence Maroney led the way with 757 yards—New England still ranked 12th in rushing (120.1 YPG). If offseason reports are true, WR Wes Welker, who led the league with 123 catches, could be back in uniform for Week 1 after tearing an ACL in the season finale…The stop unit is going to get a major facelift, if not this fall, then certainly by the start of 2011. Belichick has started laying the new foundation to help out the centerpiece, LB Jerod Mayo, by adding fresh blood at every level of the unit…Little separated New England from the rest of the AFC East pack last season, and for once, age appears to be more than just a number. The franchise isn’t down & out but might finish out of the playoffs.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
******* Steve's Take: The early schedule doesn't do any favors for the Patriots as they look to start fast and erase the memories of last January's playoff loss. The first seven games are made up of five defending playoff teams and two other divisional foes. Still, Tom Brady is still around and remains one of the best in the business. I'll lean slightly over and look for a 10-6 campaign.

[StarDust Bum]

Saints at the top of the mountain to start 2010

There's an old saying that indicates there is only one way to go when you reach the top…down. Well, the Saints reached the top of the NFL last February, upsetting the Colts in an epic Super Bowl. Now comes the quest to repeat. It starts however with the division, as no NFC South team has ever won back-to-back division titles. Let's preview the 2010 New Orleans Saints, who for the first time ever, play as the hunted team heading into a season.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
2009 Record:16-3 (+4.1 ML Units), 10-9 ATS
DIVISION:NFC South
COACH:Sean Payton, 5th year (42-27 SU, 36-32 ATS)
STADIUM:Louisiana Superdome
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:9 to 1, NFC Title:3.5 to 1
******* Power Rating:30 (#1 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+10.6 (#1 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 16-3 ~ 31-20 (61%)
ATS: 10-9 ~ 26-24 (52%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 8-5 (62%)
Home ATS: 5-5 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 14-12 (54%)
Division ATS: 1-5 ~ 6-11 (35%)
Conference ATS: 7-9 ~ 18-21 (46%)
Favorite ATS: 9-8 ~ 20-16 (56%)
Underdog ATS: 1-1 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Over-Under: 9-10 ~ 29-21 (58%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +10.6 (#1 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +46.1 (#9 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.78 (#7 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +4.14 (#3 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +12 (#3 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 403.9 (#1 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 357.8 (#24 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.19 (22nd toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/9/10 - MINNESOTA, 8:30 PM
9/20/10 - at San Francisco, 8:30 PM
9/26/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Arizona, 4:05 PM
10/17/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - PITTSBURGH, 8:20 PM
11/7/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - SEATTLE, 4:05 PM
11/25/10 - at Dallas, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM
12/19/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
12/27/10 - at Atlanta, 8:30 PM
1/2/11 - TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


Over the L2 seasons, NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in non-conference games. The Average Score was NEW ORLEANS 33.2, OPPONENT 19.3

2010 OUTLOOK
While not at the typical post-championship level, New Orleans did experience some of the roster raid that comes with being at the top of the profession. Some key contributors, including RB Mike Bell and LB Scott Fujita, skipped town while others were still tied up in free agency, but the fact the Saints return somewhat intact makes another deep playoff run a strong possibility…Coming off four consecutive seasons with at least 4,368 yards passing, few quarterbacks have the leeway of Drew Brees in Payton’s aggressive West Coast offense. Brees is the total package under center, falling just shy of an NFL record for completion percentage (70.6), and he is surrounded by a diverse group of pass catchers. Seven different players grabbed at least 39 throws and all return to the huddle, led by Marques Colston (70 catches, 1,074 yards, nine scores). The loss of Bell, the short-yardage runner among the three-headed backfield attack, shouldn’t impact much. Pierre Thomas ran for a team-high 793 yards and six scores and looked the part of a lead back during the playoff run. He still gives way to Reggie Bush in certain pass situations. Brees directed the NFL’s best offense behind a line that had three Pro Bowl selections—all five starters return…Coordinator Gregg Williams’ defenses create turnovers, 39 last year, and eight were brought back for touchdowns, breaking the backs of opponents. Don’t be fooled by the team’s low ranking against the pass (26th), since most opponents were playing catch-up. The loss of Fujita may sting in the short term, but Jonathan Vilma’s presence (110 tackles) in the middle will aid any transition at the position…Navigating a defending champion’s schedule will be tough, as will playing as the hunted team, but the Saints’ explosiveness gives them a strong chance to defend their title.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 10.5
******* Steve's Take: I've mentioned the trend of a NFC South team never winning back-to-back titles on several occasions now. This Saints team to me seems like the first one probable to do it, and for one reason, Drew Brees. As long as he is under center, the Saints have the best quarterback in the division. The rest is gravy. I look for a 11-5 or 12-4 season. OVER.

[StarDust Bum]

Giants begin new era seeking redemption

The Giants opened the 2009 season by winning their first five games in Giant-like fashion. However, a 48-27 loss in Week 6 to eventual champion New Orleans sent New York on a downward spiral the likes of which could not be imagined. They were just 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS the rest of the way while allowing 32.4 PPG. Now a redemptive Giants team begins a first season in their New Meadowlands home, hoping to compete in what figures to be a challenging NFC East Division.
NEW YORK GIANTS
2009 Record:8-8 (-7.5 ML Units), 7-9 ATS
DIVISION:NFC East
COACH:Tom Coughlin, 7th year (59-44 SU, 59-42 ATS)
STADIUM:New Meadowlands Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:20 to 1, NFC Title:9 to 1
******* Power Rating:20 (#16 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-0.6 (#20 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 34-19 (64%)
ATS: 7-9 ~ 33-20 (62%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 4-6 (40%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 13-12 (52%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 20-8 (71%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 12-8 (60%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 25-15 (63%)
Favorite ATS: 5-6 ~ 19-14 (58%)
Underdog ATS: 2-3 ~ 13-6 (68%)
Over-Under: 11-4 ~ 29-23 (56%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -1.6 (#19 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +42.3 (#10 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.31 (#14 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -2.46 (#25 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -7 (#24 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 366 (#8 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 323.7 (#12 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.44 (8th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Indianapolis, 8:20 PM
9/26/10 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - CHICAGO, 8:20 PM
10/10/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
10/25/10 - at Dallas, 8:30 PM
11/7/10 - at Seattle, 4:05 PM
11/14/10 - DALLAS, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - at Philadelphia, 8:20 PM
11/28/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Green Bay, 4:15 PM
1/2/11 - at Washington, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


NY GIANTS are on a 11-0 UNDER the total (+11 Units) run as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points The Average Score was NY GIANTS 18.8, OPPONENT 12.1

2010 OUTLOOK
The New York Giants franchise has long been known for its bruising running attack and hard-hitting defense. Both misfired last season and as a result, the Giants’ 5-0 start quickly turned into a 3-8 finish marred by blowouts—five losses by at least 20 points. What was once thought to be the most ferocious collection of defensive line talent in the NFL allowed a whopping 26.7 PPG, dropping from second in the NFL to 30th in a span of 12 months with essentially the same personnel…For all of the problems that cropped up, few can be pinned on QB Eli Manning, who turned in the best statistical season of his career (4,021 yards, 27:14 TD-Int ratio). Not bad for a signal-caller that lost his top option (Plaxico Burress) to prison and watched his second-favorite target (Amani Toomer) retire before Week 1 rolled around. In their absence, Steve Smith became a star, finishing with a team-record 107 catches. Mario Manningham also turned in a solid rookie campaign (57 catches, 822 yards, five touchdowns) and Hakeem Nicks (47, 790, 6) also set the bar high. As solid as the wide receivers have become, the running backs—Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw—are inconsistent at best. The line returns mostly intact despite the drop in backfield production…How concerned were the Giants about the freefall the defense experienced? Worried enough to use their first four draft picks on that side of the field. Head coach Tom Coughlin also brought in a pair of safeties via free agency—Antrel Rolle (Cardinals) and safety Deon Grant (Seahawks)—to fortify a unit that was borderline horrific…With a renewed focus on interior line play and a veteran unit on both sides of the field, Big Blue has a chance to bounce back quickly from last season’s hiccup and return to the playoffs.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
******* Steve's Take: One of the biggest questions in the NFL this season is how the Giants will respond to their late season freefall of a year ago. Are they the team that started 5-0 or the one that ended 3-8? I speculate its somewhere in between, and with the NFC East looking strong, I'll project a middle of the road finish and lean slightly UNDER 8.5.

[StarDust Bum]

AFC West Preview

When the Denver Broncos selected Tim Terrific with its second pick in the first-round of this year’s NFL draft, they issued a statement.
It said last year’s 8-8 record was not acceptable, not after rookie coach Josh McDaniels shot out to a six-lap lead before a frightful 2-8 finish.

San Diego’s third straight 2-3 start under Norv Turner was just a warm-up en route an 11-1 rush through the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Kansas City and Oakland were simply stuck in neutral most of the season and both ended the campaign on the losing side of the ledger for the third straight year.

It makes Turner’s Chargers an overwhelming choice as the team to take the checkered flag in this division and a major frontrunner to make it to Jerry’s World in February.

In closing, this note of caution: Before revving up with home teams in this division, you would be best advised to throttle down as AFC West hosts went 20-39-5 ATS this past decade in games versus division opponents with losing records, including a mind-boggling 2-16-1 ATS in an anticipated low-scoring contest when the Over/Under total in the game was 40 or fewer points.

Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

DENVER
TEAM THEME: IN TIM WE TRUST
One of the best lines written about Denver drafting Tim Tebow in the first-round of the NFL draft this year was penned by Miami Herald columnist Greg Cote when he said, “I had not heard that many people talking about a white Bronco since Al Cowling was driving O.J. Simpson.” Like him or not, the city of Denver is abuzz about Tebow wearing a Broncos uni. Whether he supplants Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback is an answer that only God knows at the moment. What we know is that Denver made huge forward strides on defense under first-year head coach Josh McDaniels last year, improving its numbers 60 YPG. The offense, though, slipped 54 YPG and took a hit when troubled WR Brandon Marshall was dispatched to Miami. The question is which Broncos team will we see in 2010? The one that started last season 6-0, or the one that finished up 2-8. Tim:15 just might end up having a say in the matter.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Houston (12/26)

KANSAS CITY
TEAM THEME: COLOR ME NEW
There is a massive rebuilding project going on in Kansas City these days and it’s not limited to the new makeover at Arrowhead Stadium. Head coach Todd Haley and GM Scott Pioli made inroads on the field in 2009. The four wins (all as underdogs) last year doubled 2008’s tally. They also outgained each of their final four foes to finish the season. Moreover, Haley contends QB Matt Cassel has grabbed the leadership reins of the 2010 Chiefs. "He's in here leading the pack every day," Haley said. "I mean, we can't keep him off the field. He's gathering the receivers any chance he can get. He has all the makings of being a solid quarterback in this league." Key offensive additions this year include RB Thomas Jones from the Jets and OG Ryan Lilja from the Colts. Meanwhile, S Eric Berry may prove to be the best pick in this year’s draft. The fresh coat of paint may appear temporary but at least the peeling has stopped.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. San Diego (9/13) – *KEY + 4 pts or more

OAKLAND
TEAM THEME: WHO’S MINDING THE STORE?
Let’s do the math. 2009 7th overall pick WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: 9 receptions for 124 yards and 1 TD. 2008 4th overall pick RB Darren McFadden: 865 rushing yards, 5 TD’s. 2007 1st overall pick QB Jamarcus Russell: 18 TD passes, 23 Interceptions and a QB Rating of 65.2. Those are the career marks of Al Davis’ last three first round choices, with Russell (7-18 as a starter) being cut loose this spring. Folks, if Davis was a contestant on ‘The Apprentice’ he’d hear Donald Trump shouting YOU’RE FIRED! So pathetic were the Raiders they became the first NFL team since 1960 to produce four straight sub-200 yard games. A positive was the acquisition of QB Jason Campbell from the Redskins. It should also be noted that the Raiders had some of the best off-season work this year that they've done in ages. And speaking of ages, if only Davis had taken the time to major in math, who knows where they’d be today?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas City (11/7) – *KEY as favorite

SAN DIEGO
TEAM THEME: TURNER ROUND
We’ve got to admit, we were wrong on our assessment of Norv Turner. It was easy to take potshots at him when he came aboard three years ago. After all, here was a coach that, previously in his NFL career, was 21-44-1 SU and 23-41-2 ATS in division play. Since coming to San Diego, he’s turned it completely around, as his Chargers averaged nearly 12 wins a season while going 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS against division foes. And to set the table in 2010, the Bolts will benefit from a soft schedule when they take on the 3rd easiest slate in the league. A strong draft should go a long way in supplanting former Pro Bowlers LaDainian Tomlinson and CB Antonio Cromartie. Finally, keep this thought in mind when San Diego takes on their NFC counterparts this season: The visiting team in Chargers/NFC West games is 16-11 SU and 19-8 ATS. Don’t get nervous. Norv is in charge.
PLAY ON: as dog at Indianapolis (11/28)

[StarDust Bum]

2010 Jets loaded for another Super Bowl run

Since falling short in the AFC Title game last January, the Jets have made many bold moves in hopes of taking the next step or two. In truth, head coach Rex Ryan has as many big name stars scattered over the field now as any other team. Still, their success figures to come down to quarterback Mark Sanchez and whether or not he can avoid the sophomore slump. Whatever happens, Ryan has made sure it will be interesting. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 New York Jets, the AFC East favorites.
NEW YORK JETS
2009 Record:11-8 (-0.3 ML Units), 11-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC East
COACH:Rex Ryan, 2nd year (11-8 SU, 11-8 ATS)
STADIUM:New Meadowlands Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:15 to 1, AFC Title:8 to 1
******* Power Rating:28 (#7 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+6.5 (#7 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 11-8 ~ 24-27 (47%)
ATS: 11-8 ~ 24-26 (48%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 8-3 (73%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 9-14 (39%)
Road ATS: 7-4 ~ 15-12 (56%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 7-10 (41%)
Conference ATS: 9-6 ~ 19-19 (50%)
Favorite ATS: 6-5 ~ 10-15 (40%)
Underdog ATS: 5-3 ~ 14-11 (56%)
Over-Under: 9-9 ~ 24-26 (48%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +7.2 (#8 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +69.6 (#4 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.81 (#5 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.49 (#8 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +1 (#15 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 322.9 (#20 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 253.3 (#1 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.38 (20th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/13/10 - BALTIMORE, 7:00 PM
9/19/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - at Miami, 8:20 PM
10/3/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
10/11/10 - MINNESOTA, 8:30 PM
10/17/10 - at Denver, 4:05 PM
10/31/10 - GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - HOUSTON, 1:00 PM
11/25/10 - CINCINNATI, 8:20 PM
12/6/10 - at New England, 8:30 PM
12/12/10 - MIAMI, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - at Pittsburgh, 4:15 PM
12/26/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


NY JETS are 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more PYPG since '07. The Average Score was NY JETS 17.8, OPPONENT 21.3

2010 OUTLOOK
Rex Ryan hit New York like a fire-breathing dragon, and when the smoke cleared last January, he proved to bring a lot more than just hot air to the Big Apple. Backed by a rookie QB and the No. 1 defense in the NFL, Ryan led the Jets to the AFC Championship Game and has the franchise aiming even higher in 2010…A 2009 Draft Day trade brought Mark Sanchez to town and despite some expected struggles with turnovers (12:20 TD-Int ratio), Ryan constructed the perfect system to aid in the rookie’s development…The Jets will continue to focus on the run, even if some of the main components are different. At running back, Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are out, and the heavy lifting will now be done by Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson. Ryan dropped guard Alan Faneca, but the line is still borderline dominant after anchoring the No. 1 ground attack in the NFL (172.2 YPG). If any position is make or break for the Jets’ fortunes, it’s at wide receiver. Jerricho Cotchery is as steady as they come, but the tandem of Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes is equally explosive for all the right and wrong reasons…Stars were born on defense when Ryan came to town, and the second-year head coach was not happy to stand pat even after leading the NFL in total defense. Antonio Cromartie and Jason Taylor join a defensive cast loaded with the likes of CB Darrelle Revis. It’s hard to call the run defense the weak link after it finished No. 8 in the league (98.6 YPG), but it’s all relative…Ryan is building the Jets into a force for both the long and short term, and the continued growth of Sanchez would fast track the franchise. Though there are several new faces to work into the rotation, they are seasoned veterans looking for that elusive Super Bowl ring.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
******* Steve's Take: New York's first four home games in opening the New Meadowlands are against Baltimore, New England, Minnesota, and Green Bay. Talk about a challenge. Fortunately, the road schedule is one of, if not the easiest in the NFL. With a running game/defense combo that may be unparalleled in the NFL, I don't see how this team doesn't win 10 games. OVER.

[StarDust Bum]

Raiders finally ready to turn corner in 2010?

The Oakland Raiders have been the worst team in the NFL since last appearing in the Super Bowl at the conclusion of the 2002 season. In failing to win more than five games in any season since, the problems have been multi-faceted. However, after finally enjoying an offseason of what seems to be strong personnel moves, perhaps this franchise is finally ready to turn the corner. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Oakland Raiders.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
2009 Record:5-11 (+5 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Tom Cable, 3rd year (9-19 SU, 13-15 ATS)
STADIUM:Oakland Coliseum
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, AFC Title:50 to 1
******* Power Rating:13 (#27 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-10.5 (#30 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 5-11 ~ 14-34 (29%)
ATS: 8-8 ~ 21-27 (44%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-6 (50%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 8-16 (33%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 13-11 (54%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Conference ATS: 7-5 ~ 19-17 (53%)
Favorite ATS: 0-1 ~ 0-6 (0%)
Underdog ATS: 8-7 ~ 21-21 (50%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 22-23 (49%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -11.4 (#30 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -95.8 (#31 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.15 (#29 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -6.36 (#31 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -13 (#30 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 266.1 (#31 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 361.9 (#26 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18.88 (26th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM
9/26/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - HOUSTON, 4:05 PM
10/10/10 - SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM
10/17/10 - at San Francisco, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 - at Denver, 4:15 PM
10/31/10 - SEATTLE, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - KANSAS CITY, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - MIAMI, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 - at San Diego, 4:05 PM
12/12/10 - at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - DENVER, 4:15 PM
12/26/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


OAKLAND is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since '07. The Average Score was OAKLAND 10.2, OPPONENT 29.1

2010 OUTLOOK
Since playing in the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders have lost 11 or more games in each of the last seven seasons. Despite troubles both on and off the field, HC Tom Cable was given another chance by owner Al Davis, although he no longer calls the offensive plays. That job will go to new OC Hue Jackson, the former Ravens QB coach…Former #1 overall pick QB JaMarcus Russell was released in the offseason, in favor of Jason Campbell, acquired from the Redskins. His 2009 numbers (3,618 yards, 20:15 Td-Int ratio) were respectable so it should be a sizeable upgrade. One problem, the Raiders dropped from 10th in the league in rushing in 2008 to 21st last year, gaining 106.3 YPG. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will compete for rushing attempts. The Raiders’ receiving corps was also a huge disappointment last year because Darrius Heyward-Bey failed to live up to promise. Fortunately, Louis Murphy, on the other hand, proved to be reliable. The key to the line will be the health of guard Robert Gallery—the leader of the unit—who suffered through an injury-plagued 2009 campaign…The Oakland stop unit ranked 26th in the NFL in 2009, allowing 361.9 YPG, so it was a surprise that DC John Marshall kept his job. The line is led by veteran DT Richard Seymour. The LB corps lost the team’s top tackler in Kirk Morrison, but gained his replacement with draftee Rolando McClain (1-Alabama). The eighth-overall pick is a strong, physical player with a tireless work ethic. The secondary is led by cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, so good that quarterbacks rarely throw his way…Cable is certainly on the hot seat and will need a fast start. That looks to be a tough task with a tough slate before the bye week. If things get ugly real fast, the Raiders could be doomed to another season of double-digit losses.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 6
******* Steve's Take: As much as the fact that six wins would be an eight year high for the Oakland franchise, I actually believe this team is capable. The AFC West is weak, the team played fairly well down the stretch last season, and the Campbell acquisition is a HUGE upgrade at quarterback. Don't be surprised to see Oakland reach the 6, 7, or perhaps even 8-win mark in 2010.

[StarDust Bum]

2010 begins a new era of Eagles' football

The 2009 season may have marked the end of what proved to be the most successful era in the history of the Philadelphia Eagles. With Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and several other key players from the last decade gone, things will be quite different now in Philadelphia. Andy Reid still has a team he believes can win though, but much of the success this season will hinge on the development of McNabb's replacement, Kevin Kolb. Let's look at what the 2010 season has in store for the Philadelphia Eagles.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
2009 Record:11-6 (-4.5 ML Units), 9-8 ATS
DIVISION:NFC East
COACH:Andy Reid, 12th year (118-75-1 SU, 111-79 ATS)
STADIUM:Lincoln Financial Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:15 to 1, NFC Title:7 to 1
******* Power Rating:24 (#11 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+4.1 (#10 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 11-6 ~ 30-21 (59%)
ATS: 9-8 ~ 29-23 (56%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 3-9 (25%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 17-11 (61%)
Division ATS: 3-4 ~ 9-11 (45%)
Conference ATS: 8-5 ~ 23-17 (58%)
Favorite ATS: 8-4 ~ 20-17 (54%)
Underdog ATS: 1-4 ~ 8-6 (57%)
Over-Under: 11-6 ~ 26-25 (51%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +4.2 (#10 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +29.6 (#12 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.87 (#3 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +1.34 (#13 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +15 (#2 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 356.8 (#11 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 327.2 (#16 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.5 (6th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Jacksonville, 4:05 PM
10/3/10 - WASHINGTON, 4:15 PM
10/10/10 - at San Francisco, 8:20 PM
10/17/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:15 PM
11/15/10 - at Washington, 8:30 PM
11/21/10 - NY GIANTS, 8:20 PM
11/28/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
12/2/10 - HOUSTON, 8:20 PM
12/12/10 - at Dallas, 8:20 PM
12/19/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - DALLAS, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


PHILADELPHIA is on a 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) run vs. teams scoring 29 or more PPG The Average Score was PHILADELPHIA 24.8, OPPONENT 23.7

2010 OUTLOOK
The three key faces of the Philadelphia Eagles over the last decade, QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and S Brian Dawkins are all gone. It’s clear that the franchise is headed in a new direction. Are the Eagles better for it? Consecutive losses to Dallas in Week 17 and the Wild-Card Playoff cemented the thinking that changes were needed…At the very least, Philadelphia is younger with Kevin Kolb taking over under center, but along with youth comes inexperience. Replacing McNabb’s heart and experience will be difficult, but the strong-armed Kolb should have no trouble working with one of the more dynamic wide receiving units in the NFL. Pro Bowl WR DeSean Jackson and TE Brent Celek are on the verge of superstardom. Throw in Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant and Kolb has an almost unfair group of pass catchers to work with. Kolb’s biggest problem is going to be protection. McNabb was sacked 55 times, and no upgrades were made on the line. LeSean McCoy takes over for Westbrook after a strong rookie year (155 carries, 637 yards, 4 TD’s)…First-year DC Sean McDermott was hit hard by injuries last season. Still, DE Trent Cole has blossomed into a terror, posting 12.5 sacks and now will be joined by draftee Brandon Graham (1-Michigan) in pressuring passers. Veteran CB Asante Samuel tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (nine) and has 29 in the four seasons. Though the pass defense finished middle of the road in terms of big plays allowed, all three NFC East rivals boast top-flight quarterback/WR tandems. Improvement and depth are a must…Philadelphia has a lot of moving parts that have to start working in unison on offense. If Kolb doesn’t get time, the gamebreakers will do him no good. McDermott’s defense also has some question marks, and that could leave the Eagles battling for third in the NFC East.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
******* Steve's Take: I look at the NFC East and I see Dallas as the top dog, with Washington, the Giants, and Philadelphia all on the next level. The Eagles have the least experienced quarterback and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar situation this year in Philly as what happened in Green Bay two years ago with Aaron Rodgers. In other words, growing pains. I'll take the UNDER here.

[StarDust Bum]

Off-field incidents make life difficult for Steelers

Even though it has won two of the last five Super Bowl titles, the Steelers' franchise has seen better days. Long known as a team with an exempliary record both on and off the field, Pittsburgh has been embarrassed by a series of offseason incidents involving key players. For 2010, what occurred off the field will actually affect what happens on it, as two Super Bowl XLIII heroes won't be in the season opening lineup. Let's look at those stories and everything else affecting the 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2009 Record:9-7 (-8.1 ML Units), 5-10 ATS
DIVISION:AFC North
COACH:Mike Tomlin, 4th year (34-18 SU, 25-26 ATS)
STADIUM:Heinz Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:10 to 1, AFC Title:5 to 1
******* Power Rating:22 (#14 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+1.8 (#13 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 9-7 ~ 34-18 (65%)
ATS: 5-10 ~ 25-26 (49%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 7-6 (54%)
Home ATS: 2-5 ~ 14-12 (54%)
Road ATS: 3-5 ~ 11-14 (44%)
Division ATS: 1-4 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 4-7 ~ 19-19 (50%)
Favorite ATS: 4-10 ~ 19-24 (44%)
Underdog ATS: 1-0 ~ 6-2 (75%)
Over-Under: 9-6 ~ 29-22 (57%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +2.8 (#14 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +65.8 (#6 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.80 (#6 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -1.02 (#21 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -3 (#20 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 371.1 (#7 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 305.3 (#5 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.06 (11th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at Miami, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at New Orleans, 8:20 PM
11/8/10 - at Cincinnati, 8:30 PM
11/14/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 8:20 PM
11/21/10 - OAKLAND, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at Baltimore, 8:20 PM
12/12/10 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - NY JETS, 4:15 PM
12/23/10 - CAROLINA, 8:20 PM
1/2/11 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


PITTSBURGH is on a 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) run vs. top-level teams (Win Pct. > 75%) The Average Score was PITTSBURGH 21.3, OPPONENT 18.4

2010 OUTLOOK
The Steelers have won the Lombardi Trophy six times, but on each of the last three occasions, they failed to reach the playoffs as defending champions. They come off a winning season at 9-7, but to regain division supremacy they’ll have to overcome the losses of QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Santonio Holmes…It’ll be interesting to see where Mike Tomlin’s team stands when Roethlisberger takes his first snap after serving a 6-game suspension. Byron Leftwich, Dennis Dixon, or Charlie Batch will steer the ship until Big Ben is available. The passing game was spectacular in 2009. The Steelers passed for 4,496 yards and 28 touchdowns. Tired of Holmes’ off-field shenanigans, the Steelers traded him for only a fifth-round pick. Mike Wallace (39 catches, 756 yards, 6 TD’s) gets first crack at the starting spot opposite Hines Ward. The health of feature back Rashard Mendenhall (1,100 yards) is crucial to the balance of the RB unit after Willie Parker was lost in free agency. Having allowed 50 sacks last seasons, the Steelers invested their top pick in center Maurkice Pouncey (1-Florida)…A year after ranking No. 1 in total defense, the Steelers didn’t suffer much of a dropoff. Only four teams allowed fewer total yards. Expect more of the same from coordinator Dick LeBeau’s unit. The linebackers will again set the tone led by James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley, and James Farrior. Still, it’s a safe bet the Steelers won’t reach their potential without Troy Polamalu at strong safety. His left knee, which in part cost him all but five games, is on the mend…Roethlisberger will miss only one game against a playoff team from 2009, so if the Steelers can hold their own during his absence they could be on the high road. On the flip side, the suspension could have a major impact and serve as the ignition switch to an implosion.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9
******* Steve's Take: As good as Pittsburgh's defense is, nine is a very generous season win prop for a team being quarterbacked by Byron Leftwich. Let's get real here, this is not your daddy's Steelers' teams. This team is now a passing team, and Leftwich is not going to produce like Roethlisberger did. With so many distractions, I see Pittsburgh taking at least a step back. UNDER.

[StarDust Bum]

A 6-pack of new coaches, new assistants
By RICHARD ROSENBLATT AP Sports Writer

Sure seems like there were a lot more than three NFL head coaching changes, but John Fox (Panthers), Jack Del Rio (Jaguars), Eric Mangini (Browns), Tom Cable (Raiders) and Lovie Smith (Bears) kept their jobs and are back for another season.

There were, however, major shake-ups in Washington, Seattle and Buffalo, with a sprinkling of former head coaches taking assistant jobs all over the NFL.

So, will the third time be a charm for Pete Carroll?

Is Mike Shanahan the right fit for the Redskins?

Can former Cowboys' coach Chan Gailey revamp the Bills?

And look who's back in the NFL, with the Chiefs. Yes, it's Charlie Weis after five tumultuous seasons as coach of Notre Dame.

Here's a six-pack of coaching moves to keep tabs on:

-Mike Shanahan, head coach, Redskins: Fired from the Broncos, and after a one-year break, two-time Super Bowl winner has lots of work to turn team into contender.

-Pete Carroll, head coach, Seahawks: Perfect timing in leaving USC; Carroll brings baggage, but hopes his high energy level - and daily tweets - will rub off on players.

-Chan Gailey, head coach, Bills: Fired as Chiefs defensive coordinator before the '09 season, former Cowboys' coach has hands full. First goal: Field a competitive team.

-Charlie Weis, offensive coordinator, Chiefs: If he can help Chiefs' offense to remotely resemble what he did with the Pats, this could work.

-Mike Martz, offensive coordinator, Bears: Former Rams' coach charged with turning Jay Cutler into a TD machine without the interceptions (27 TD passes, league-high 26 picks in '09).

-Mike Nolan, defensive coordinator, Dolphins: Former 49ers coach works with a revamped lineup that will play an offensive defense.

[StarDust Bum]

49ers favored for first division title since 2002

Bettors have certainly come to love the 49ers under Mike Singletary, as they are 14-7 ATS in his short tenure. However, fans in San Francisco are even giddier about the team's prospects for 2010, as the 49ers appear poised to take over the NFC West Division from the Cardinals, the two-time defending champions wo Singletary's team beat twice a year ago. Let's analyze whether this optimism is warranted or if San Francisco is doomed to another playoff-less season, which would mark its eighth straight.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
2009 Record:8-8 (+0.3 ML Units), 9-4 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Mike Singletary, 3rd year (13-12 SU, 14-7 ATS)
STADIUM:Candlestick Park
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, NFC Title:13 to 1
******* Power Rating:21 (#15 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+1.0 (#15 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 20-28 (42%)
ATS: 9-4 ~ 21-23 (48%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Home ATS: 5-2 ~ 11-11 (50%)
Road ATS: 4-2 ~ 10-12 (45%)
Division ATS: 5-1 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 7-3 ~ 14-19 (42%)
Favorite ATS: 5-1 ~ 7-4 (64%)
Underdog ATS: 4-2 ~ 14-18 (44%)
Over-Under: 5-11 ~ 19-28 (40%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +3.1 (#13 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -35.6 (#24 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.03 (#19 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +4.43 (#1 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +9 (#5 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 290.8 (#27 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 326.4 (#14 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 17.94 (31st toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Seattle, 4:15 PM
9/20/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 8:30 PM
9/26/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 8:20 PM
10/17/10 - OAKLAND, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - vs. Denver (London), 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - TAMPA BAY, 4:05 PM
11/29/10 - at Arizona, 8:30 PM
12/5/10 - at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - SEATTLE, 4:05 PM
12/16/10 - at San Diego, 8:20 PM
12/26/10 - at St Louis, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - ARIZONA, 4:15 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


SAN FRANCISCO is on a 16-3 OVER the total (+12.7 Units) run on the road vs. poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 YPR The Average Score was SAN FRANCISCO 26.2, OPPONENT 26.4

2010 OUTLOOK
Mike Singletary has restored some stability to a wayward franchise, as the 49ers 8-8 mark snapped a string of six consecutive losing seasons. The next goal is to unseat the Cardinals, who they beat twice a year ago, and win the NFC West…San Francisco finished 27th in total offense (290.8 YPG) and 18th in scoring (20.6 PPG) in OC Jimmy Raye’s first year. Shaun Hill and Alex Smith shared time at QB through the first six weeks, but it became Smith’s job over the final 10 games. He may finally be ready to fulfill the promise that made him the #1 overall pick in the 2005 draft. RB Frank Gore keeps the San Francisco running game a threat, with 1,120 yards and a career-best 10 touchdowns in 2009. Highly touted WR Michael Crabtree, new acquisition Ted Ginn Jr. and TE Vernon Davis, off a monster season, make up the best pass-catching unit this team has had in over a decade. The interior may take a little while to mesh with first round rookie starters LT Anthony Davis & RG Mike Iupati…The stop unit held seven opponents to 10 points or fewer and allowed just 17.6 PPG overall, good for fourth in the NFL. The unit’s 326.4 yards allowed per game ranked 15th. All three starters return to the three-man front, while San Francisco’s quartet of linebackers can play both fast and physical. The catalyst is Patrick Willis, who paced the NFL with 152 tackles. The secondary should be better with the return of CB Nate Clements, sidelined for nine games with a shoulder injury…If the Niners are going to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2002, it will be up to Smith to lead the way. He is surrounded by weapons and the defense is easily the division’s best. San Francisco could take the NFC West.

Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
******* Steve's Take: San Francisco has the lowest regular season win prop of any divisional favorite, and considering that 8-8 division winners are extremely rare, you'd have to assume that if the 49ers get it done in the West this year, they will be at least 9-7. Thus the question is...will they? With the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL on tap, I have to say YES. OVER.

[StarDust Bum]

Bucs buried in tough NFC South Division

There is a history in the NFC South Division of teams being able to go from worst to first in a single season. Quite frankly though, you'd probably have a better chance with the state lottery than cashing a ticket on the Buccaneeers to win the division in 2010. After their 3-13 campaign a year ago, the rebuilding effort continues this season behind head coach Raheem Morris. In no lesser words, Tampa Bay is buried behind New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta, and hence bound for the basement again. Let's look at the Bucs' upcoming season.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2009 Record:3-13 (-0.5 ML Units), 6-10 ATS
DIVISION:NFC South
COACH:Raheem Morris, 2nd year (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS)
STADIUM:Raymond James Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, NFC Title:50 to 1
******* Power Rating:15 (#24 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-7.1 (#26 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 3-13 ~ 21-28 (43%)
ATS: 6-10 ~ 23-26 (47%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 7-5 (58%)
Home ATS: 1-6 ~ 11-13 (46%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 12-13 (48%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 20-17 (54%)
Favorite ATS: 0-0 ~ 11-9 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 6-10 ~ 12-17 (41%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 23-26 (47%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -9.8 (#29 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -78 (#27 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.84 (#27 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -4.30 (#29 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -5 (#22 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 287.6 (#28 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 365.6 (#27 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.06 (23rd toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at San Francisco, 4:05 PM
11/28/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Washington, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - SEATTLE, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at New Orleans, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


TAMPA BAY is on a 27-8 UNDER the total (+18.2 Units) run in the first two weeks of the season The Average Score was TAMPA BAY 15.7, OPPONENT 15.7

2010 OUTLOOK
The Buccaneers were painful to watch at times in their first season under Raheem Morris, who had to wait until November for his first NFL head coaching victory. Unfortunately, despite a string of recent turnarounds in this division, another last-place finish in the NFC South seems likely…The Bucs gained more yards than only four teams and need to improve across the board to be competitive in a division with three offensive-minded clubs. QB Josh Freeman made his pro debut and finished with 1,855 yards, 10 touchdowns and 20 giveaways. Tight end Kellen Winslow caught a team-leading 77 balls for 884 yards and five touchdowns. If nothing else, the new wideout corps has promise. It could only be a matter of time before rookies Arrelious Benn (2b-Illinois) and Mike Williams (4-Syracuse) top the depth chart. The front office invested plenty of dough in RB Derrick Ward last offseason, but not many touches. In fact, Carnell Williams had nearly twice as many yards (823) and carries (211) than Ward. The line lacks a household name but brings back four starters…It seems like yesterday when Tampa Bay’s defense was one of the league’s most-feared units but 2009 saw it get pushed around weekly. The Bucs allowed 5,849 yards, worst in the league, and 46 touchdowns. Improvement is vital, and the numbers justify the front office investing three of its first four draft picks on defensive players, including highly touted tackle Gerald McCoy (1-Oklahoma), who brings exceptional quickness and ability to a defense that sorely needs a rising star. LB Barrett Ruud, who paced the team with 142 tackles, should hopefully see a lesser load with McCoy stopping things upfront… The Bucs received high grades for their draft but remain in rebuilding mode. It will be at least another year before they’ll sniff playoff contention. Continued growth of Freeman would be a positive sign.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5.5
******* Steve's Take: I don't think I can sugercoat this one…Tampa Bay has its hands full and is overmatched in the NFC South Division. All of the Bucs' road games are against teams considered to be playoff contenders. I can three or four wins possibly, but no way does that number reach six. UNDER.