Bills buried at bottom of loaded AFC East

[StarDust Bum]

Once again...Super Bowl or bust for Chargers

Even with future hall-of-fame running back Ladanian Tomlinson having moved on, the San Diego Chargers are the overwhelming favorite to win a fifth straight AFC West title. That means little to them however, since the previous four have amounted to little more than eventual postseason disappointment. Every San Diego player and fan has his or her goals set on reaching Super Bowl XLV in Dallas in February. Let's look at whether or not the 2010 San Diego Chargers have what it takes to reach that goal.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2009 Record:13-4 (+6.1 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Norv Turner, 4th year (35-19 SU, 31-22 ATS)
STADIUM:Qualcomm Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:8 to 1, AFC Title:4 to 1
******* Power Rating:30 (#1 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:+5.8 (#9 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 13-4 ~ 35-19 (65%)
ATS: 8-8 ~ 31-22 (58%)
Preseason ATS: 2-1 ~ 7-4 (64%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 16-10 (62%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 15-12 (56%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 12-6 (67%)
Conference ATS: 5-8 ~ 25-17 (60%)
Favorite ATS: 5-7 ~ 21-18 (54%)
Underdog ATS: 3-1 ~ 10-4 (71%)
Over-Under: 10-6 ~ 28-22 (56%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +8.4 (#5 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +33.2 (#11 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.64 (#9 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +3.67 (#5 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +7 (#6 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 360.1 (#10 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 326.9 (#15 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 16.88 (32nd toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/13/10 - at Kansas City, 10:15 PM
9/19/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - at Seattle, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - ARIZONA, 4:15 PM
10/10/10 - at Oakland, 4:15 PM
10/17/10 - at St Louis, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM
10/31/10 - TENNESSEE, 4:05 PM
11/7/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
11/22/10 - DENVER, 8:30 PM
11/28/10 - at Indianapolis, 8:20 PM
12/5/10 - OAKLAND, 4:05 PM
12/12/10 - KANSAS CITY, 4:15 PM
12/16/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 8:20 PM
12/26/10 - at Cincinnati, 8:20 PM
1/2/11 - at Denver, 4:15 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


SAN DIEGO is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since '07. The Average Score was SAN DIEGO 27.8, OPPONENT 15.9

2010 OUTLOOK
The Chargers have won four straight AFC West titles, with little to show for it. Last year, they lost at home in the divisional round as the AFC’s #2 seed. A few key contributors are gone, notably RB LaDainian Tomlinson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams. HC Norv Turner’s job is safe, but can he lead the Chargers to the next level?...Philip Rivers HAS risen to the next level and he led the AFC in QB rating (104.4), throwing for 4,254 yards, and a 28:9 TD-Int. ratio. The running game will certainly be different. Rookie Ryan Mathews (1-Fresno State) is expected to be the No. 1 RB after leading the FBS in rushing. Darren Sproles will continue in his change-of-pace role. The Chargers passing offense thrives thanks to a receiving corps that keeps getting better. Vincent Jackson is underrated, Malcom Floyd comes off a career year, and of course TE Antonio Gates ( 1,157 yards, 8 TD’s) is as good as they come. The Chargers ranked 31st in the league in rushing, but didn’t spend any draft picks or sign any free agents on the offensive line. The left side is solid…Ron Rivera took over the DC job last year, and the Charger stop unit improved from 31st in the NFL against the pass to 11th (209.2 YPG), and they used three of their first four draft picks on defense in an effort to bolster the unit. The strength is at linebacker as the line is an unspectacular bunch. Cromartie, replaced by Antoine Cason, will be missed in the secondary, but fellow CB Quentin Jammer is improving big-time.If Mathews can step right in and be a productive rusher, the San Diego attack will be scary. A fifth-consecutive AFC West crown is likely, but how far the Chargers go in the playoffs is still the only thing that matters.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 11
******* Steve's Take: If San Diego could just start the season in Week 6 it would have a chance to win 15 or 16 games. The problem is the Chargers have been 2-3 after five weeks in each of the last three seasons. Still, a fast start seems more likely this year with perhaps the easiest first month schedule in the NFL. That should propel this team to at least 12 or 13 wins. OVER.

[StarDust Bum]

Carroll has work cut out for him in Seattle

Taking over for Mike Holmgren last season, Jim Mora, Jr. had little more than a cup of coffee in Seattle. After a 5-11 season, he was quickly replaced by USC's Pete Carroll, who has been entrusted with restoring the pride to a team that won four straight NFC West titles from 2004-07. It figures to take time and patience, although Carroll has been quick in getting things the way he wants them. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Seattle Seahawks.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2009 Record:5-11 (-8.2 ML Units), 6-10 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Pete Carroll, 1st year (34-33 SU in NFL - NE & NYJ)
STADIUM:Qwest Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:50 to 1, NFC Title:23 to 1
******* Power Rating:10 (#30 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-8.4 (#28 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 5-11 ~ 20-30 (40%)
ATS: 6-10 ~ 23-25 (48%)
Preseason ATS: 4-0 ~ 11-1 (92%)
Home ATS: 5-3 ~ 15-8 (65%)
Road ATS: 1-7 ~ 8-17 (32%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 11-7 (61%)
Conference ATS: 4-8 ~ 17-20 (46%)
Favorite ATS: 5-2 ~ 16-7 (70%)
Underdog ATS: 1-8 ~ 7-18 (28%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 23-24 (49%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -6.9 (#26 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -41 (#25 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.77 (#25 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -3.44 (#26 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -8 (#27 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 316.8 (#21 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 357.8 (#24 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18.25 (28th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Denver, 4:05 PM
9/26/10 - SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - at St Louis, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - ARIZONA, 4:05 PM
10/31/10 - at Oakland, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - NY GIANTS, 4:05 PM
11/14/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - at New Orleans, 4:05 PM
11/28/10 - KANSAS CITY, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 - CAROLINA, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 - at San Francisco, 4:05 PM
12/19/10 - ATLANTA, 4:05 PM
12/26/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


SEATTLE is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) on the road vs. teams scoring 24 or more PPG since '07. The Average Score was SEATTLE 14.5, OPPONENT 35.8

2010 OUTLOOK
The 2005 season, when Seattle played in its only Super Bowl, seems like ages ago. Architect Mike Holmgren is now in Cleveland, leaving behind a Seahawks’ team with just nine wins in their last 32 games. Jim Mora’s tenure lasted all of 16 games and now Seattle has turned to Pete Carroll, of USC fame. Seattle ruled the NFC West from 2004-07, and Carroll’s task will be to reverse the recent losing trend…The Seahawks were 25th in the NFL in scoring, averaging just 17.5 PPG. Matt Hasselbeck enters his 12th season and his 17 touchdowns last year were his lowest full-season total since 2002. Seattle was not productive on the ground as Julius Jones and Justin Forsett split time at RB with moderate success. Leon Washington, a multi-talented performer coming off a broken leg, was added through a trade. T.J. Houshmandzadeh leads the Seattle wideouts but Nate Burleson departed as a free agent after 63 catches. TE John Carlson led the team with seven TD’s. The newest addition to the line is rookie tackle Russell Okung (1a-OSU), who will have big shoes to fill for the retired Walter Jones. The rest of the line remains intact…The Seahawks were 12th in the NFC in total defense, allowing 356.4 YPG, but where Seattle really struggled was against the pass (245.4 YPG), ranking 30th. The pass rush suffered a blow with the retirement of Patrick Kearney, but Lofa Tatupu, who missed the last 10 games with a torn pectoral muscle, returns at middle linebacker. Expect an improved Aaron Curry while CB Marcus Trufant remains the leader in the secondary. He also missed six games with a back injury…The Seahawks grabbed one of college football’s high-profile coaches to rebuild the team but Carroll has catching up to do. Concerns on the offensive and defensive lines will likely lead to a third straight losing season.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
******* Steve's Take: Carroll has claimed that not succeeding in the NFL is one of his career regrets. Perhaps that and leaving the USC program in flames. In any case, it's going to take awhile for both he and the Seahawks to achieve success, regardless of the divisional competition. With a roster in transition, I look for another 5-11 type of season. UNDER.

[StarDust Bum]

Bucs buried in tough NFC South Division

There is a history in the NFC South Division of teams being able to go from worst to first in a single season. Quite frankly though, you'd probably have a better chance with the state lottery than cashing a ticket on the Buccaneeers to win the division in 2010. After their 3-13 campaign a year ago, the rebuilding effort continues this season behind head coach Raheem Morris. In no lesser words, Tampa Bay is buried behind New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta, and hence bound for the basement again. Let's look at the Bucs' upcoming season.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2009 Record:3-13 (-0.5 ML Units), 6-10 ATS
DIVISION:NFC South
COACH:Raheem Morris, 2nd year (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS)
STADIUM:Raymond James Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, NFC Title:50 to 1
******* Power Rating:15 (#24 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-7.1 (#26 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 3-13 ~ 21-28 (43%)
ATS: 6-10 ~ 23-26 (47%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 7-5 (58%)
Home ATS: 1-6 ~ 11-13 (46%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 12-13 (48%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 20-17 (54%)
Favorite ATS: 0-0 ~ 11-9 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 6-10 ~ 12-17 (41%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 23-26 (47%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -9.8 (#29 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -78 (#27 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.84 (#27 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -4.30 (#29 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -5 (#22 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 287.6 (#28 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 365.6 (#27 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.06 (23rd toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at San Francisco, 4:05 PM
11/28/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Washington, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - SEATTLE, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at New Orleans, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


TAMPA BAY is on a 27-8 UNDER the total (+18.2 Units) run in the first two weeks of the season The Average Score was TAMPA BAY 15.7, OPPONENT 15.7

2010 OUTLOOK
The Buccaneers were painful to watch at times in their first season under Raheem Morris, who had to wait until November for his first NFL head coaching victory. Unfortunately, despite a string of recent turnarounds in this division, another last-place finish in the NFC South seems likely…The Bucs gained more yards than only four teams and need to improve across the board to be competitive in a division with three offensive-minded clubs. QB Josh Freeman made his pro debut and finished with 1,855 yards, 10 touchdowns and 20 giveaways. Tight end Kellen Winslow caught a team-leading 77 balls for 884 yards and five touchdowns. If nothing else, the new wideout corps has promise. It could only be a matter of time before rookies Arrelious Benn (2b-Illinois) and Mike Williams (4-Syracuse) top the depth chart. The front office invested plenty of dough in RB Derrick Ward last offseason, but not many touches. In fact, Carnell Williams had nearly twice as many yards (823) and carries (211) than Ward. The line lacks a household name but brings back four starters…It seems like yesterday when Tampa Bay’s defense was one of the league’s most-feared units but 2009 saw it get pushed around weekly. The Bucs allowed 5,849 yards, worst in the league, and 46 touchdowns. Improvement is vital, and the numbers justify the front office investing three of its first four draft picks on defensive players, including highly touted tackle Gerald McCoy (1-Oklahoma), who brings exceptional quickness and ability to a defense that sorely needs a rising star. LB Barrett Ruud, who paced the team with 142 tackles, should hopefully see a lesser load with McCoy stopping things upfront… The Bucs received high grades for their draft but remain in rebuilding mode. It will be at least another year before they’ll sniff playoff contention. Continued growth of Freeman would be a positive sign.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5.5
******* Steve's Take: I don't think I can sugercoat this one…Tampa Bay has its hands full and is overmatched in the NFC South Division. All of the Bucs' road games are against teams considered to be playoff contenders. I can three or four wins possibly, but no way does that number reach six. UNDER.

[StarDust Bum]

Redskins in better hands moving forward

What a difference an offseason can make in the NFL. When we last left the Redskins at the end of the 2009 season, they were a 4-12 club going nowhere fast behind head coach Jim Zorn and quarterback Jason Campbell. Fast forward six months and Mike Shanahan is running the show, Donovan McNabb is under center, and an otherwise revamped roster is hopeful for a playoff push. This is why we love the NFL. Our 32 teams in 32 days season preview series concludes with a look at the 2010 Washington Redskins.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2009 Record:4-12 (-10.6 ML Units), 6-9 ATS
DIVISION:NFC East
COACH:Mike Shanahan, 1st year (154-103 in NFL - LAR & DEN)
STADIUM:FedEx Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, NFC Title:13 to 1
******* Power Rating:18 (#19 of 32)
******* Outplay Factor Rating:-5.7 (#24 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 4-12 ~ 21-28 (43%)
ATS: 6-9 ~ 19-25 (43%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 7-6 (54%)
Home ATS: 2-6 ~ 8-15 (35%)
Road ATS: 4-3 ~ 11-10 (52%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Conference ATS: 4-8 ~ 17-17 (50%)
Favorite ATS: 1-4 ~ 6-13 (32%)
Underdog ATS: 5-5 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Over-Under: 9-7 ~ 20-28 (42%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -4.4 (#24 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -6.5 (#18 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.05 (#17 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -3.65 (#27 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -11 (#28 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 313 (#22 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 319.5 (#11 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.75 (15th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - DALLAS, 8:20 PM
9/19/10 - HOUSTON, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - at St Louis, 4:05 PM
10/3/10 - at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM
10/10/10 - GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 8:20 PM
10/24/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
11/15/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 8:30 PM
11/21/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at Dallas, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM

Sample ******* Power Trend for 2010


Over the L2 seasons, WASHINGTON is 10-1 UNDER the total (+8.9 Units) as favorites. The Average Score was WASHINGTON 16.5, OPPONENT 15.8

2010 OUTLOOK
One of new head coach Mike Shanahan’s first moves may well be the most shocking of his coaching career—adding QB Donovan McNabb to the huddle, at the expense of the division rival Eagles…McNabb wasn’t well-protected in his final season with Philadelphia, sacked 35 times, but he should fare better in a city known for keeping leaders safe. Despite losing LT Chris Samuels to retirement, the Redskins are banking on Trent Williams (1-Oklahoma) filling the void. McNabb might be hard-pressed to match his usual numbers in coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s run-first system, unless of course, the wheels totally fall off the revamped ground attack…Five years ago, the three players currently in the Redskins’ backfield—Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker—all topped 1,200 yards rushing and combined for 35 touchdowns. Father Time has apparently caught them from behind. Santana Moss returns as the lead receiver, and behind him on the depth chart—outside of reliable tight end Chris Cooley—stand plenty of question marks…The Redskins struck gold with OLB Brian Orakpo in the 2009 draft, and he fits even better in new coordinator Jim Haslett’s 3-4 scheme. It helps lining up along inside LB London Fletcher, a tackle machine that hasn’t missed a game in 12 seasons. The linebackers had a huge hand in the Redskins finish as the No. 10 defense in the NFL. However, 100$M man DT Albert Haynesworth, continues to balk at the change in scheme that could force him inside off the edge and skipped early offseason workouts. The pass defense features CB’s DeAngelo Hall and Carlos Rogers, yet big plays were still a big problem…Are the Redskins Super Bowl bound? Not by a longshot, and playing in the NFC East, a second consecutive last-place finish isn’t out of the question. Still, Shanahan cleaned house, and at least on paper, this team looks better.

YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
******* Steve's Take: Jim Zorn was in over his head as the top man in Washington and in my opinion was responsible for the Redskins' demise. They lost eight games by a single possession or less last fall. With a well-repected NFL mind now at the controls, and an upgrade at quarterback, I believe Washington is at least as good or better than it was in the two years prior to '09, when they won eight and nine games. OVER.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC North preview

The ‘Black and Blue’ is down to two… that is two winning teams with four combined playoff appearances the last three years. Somewhere, Vince Lombardi is rolling over in his grave.

Ironically, the two winning teams, Green Bay and Minnesota, have had one common denominator and that is Brett Favre. With his status (surprise) still up in the air, the division is just that – up for grabs.

This year the NFC North meets the AFC South in interleague play, a situation that has not fared well for the guys the Northerners as they are just 11-22 straight-up all-time in these frays

In addition, the NFC North has struggled during the final four games of the season, going 100-143-6 ATS since its inception, including 7-27-1 ATS when laying points.

If it sounds like this division is dying a slow death it’s because they are. RIP.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

CHICAGO
TEAM THEME: SAY(ERS) IT AIN’T SO

According to former Bears Hall of Fame RB Gale Sayers, the Bears are in for a long season in 2010. "(QB Jay) Cutler hasn't done the job. (LB Brian) Urlacher, I don't know how good he's going to be coming back. He's 33 years old… They haven't done a good job. If Lovie doesn't do it this year, I think he's gone.” Whew. While Sayers admits he lives and dies with the team, his comments hit the team harder than the rash of injuries did to the defense last year. The addition of Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers will help. OC Mike Martz is excited about his team’s prospects this year. “I love our receivers. I think that our receiver corps will be the strength of this team. You can put that in granite. I can promise you that one… this will be the strength of this football team.” As far as Chicago fans are concerned, they are hoping Sayers’ mouth runs for more yards than his legs ever did.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Green Bay (9/27) – *KEY if +3.5 pts or more

DETROIT
TEAM THEME: SUPPORTING STAFF

The Lions were busy acquiring personnel in the off-season in hopes of protecting franchise QB Matthew Stafford. Stafford suffered three injuries last year and threw 20 interceptions as a rookie. But head coach Jim Schwartz points out all three injuries came when the Lions were trailing in the fourth quarter, and many picks came when the Lions put Stafford in bad situations. “It was basically taking hits because he was trying to do something that he shouldn't have to do being down 17 points with four minutes left or something like that," Schwartz said. "So staying healthy is important for him, and that will help him take care of the football.” The Lions filled two very big needs by getting defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and running back Jahvid Best with their two first-round picks. They also surrounded Suh with strong support personnel in Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. No longer will opposing quarterbacks be allowed to carve the Lions secondary like the Thanksgiving Day turkeys they resemble.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. New England (11/25)

GREEN BAY
TEAM THEME: CATCH US IF YOU CAN

There was a lot to like about the Packers in 2009. Owners of the top ranked rush defense and best in the league in turnover margin last year, Green Bay made huge strides across the board, improving from six wins to 11, despite an offensive line that was ravaged with injuries. Bad news for the rest of the league is head coach Mike McCarthy really likes his team’s chances in 2010. "We're a better football team in 2010 today than we have been in the past… I really like the way our football team looks on paper; I like the individuals that we have added,” was McCarthy’s assessment of the team after the NFL Draft. Keep an eye on 6th round, 24-year RB James Starks of Buffalo who hasn’t played in a year-and-a-half. If healthy, he could be a steal. The bottom line is as long as QB Aaron Rodgers remains upright, the Pack is the team to beat in the NFC North.
PLAY ON: vs. Miami (10/17)

MINNESOTA
TEAM THEME: MAYBE, MAYBE NOT

You knew it was coming. When Bret Favre tossed his Super Bowl-denying pick in the final moments of last year’s championship game against New Orleans, it was almost like O.J. Simpson waiting on news that he would eventually land in jail. It was expected. For all the good Minnesota accomplished in 2009 – including the most wins since 1998 – the Vikings fell one horrifying play short of making it to SB XLIV. Obviously the big concern is whether No. 4 decides he wants more and is willing to come back for another season in 2010. We can talk all about the forward progress the Vikes made last year, such as going 3-0 SU and ATS at home from December out after having been 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in three previous season under Brad Childress… or Minny’s mighty 10-2 ‘In The Stats’ log during its final 12 games of the campaign. But the fact of the matter is everything centers around the Ol’ Wrangler’s return.
PLAY ON: at New Orleans (9/9)

[StarDust Bum]

NFC East Preview

Long considered the ‘beast’ of all NFL divisions, the NFC East features no less than three Pro Bowl quarterbacks.

The division is also the top-heavy favorite with an average 8.5 ‘win total’ for the season per team. Does this mean all four teams are playoff bound in 2010? That’s doubtful, but they might insist that three’s company by season’s end.

No team appeared in more playoff games during the past decade than Philadelphia. The Eagles 18 post-season games tied New England for league honors. Together, the NFC East combined to play 35 games in the playoffs in the 2000’s, easily the best in the league.

These ‘beasts’ rewarded their backers this past decade whenever they went out as road dogs off a SU and ATS win, going 54-26-1 ATS, including 27-8-1 when taking six or more points.

While they may beat up on each other, these NFC East creatures of habit certainly command the respect of players alike.

Note:Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

DALLAS
TEAM THEME: GREAT EXPECTATIONS
Despite taking on the toughest non-division slate in the NFL this season, owner Jerry Jones is overly optimistic when stating he wants his club to be the first team to play in a Super Bowl in its own stadium. The Super Bowl will be played at Cowboys Stadium in 2011. "I'm like a kid when you ask me what I want for Christmas," Jones said. "I want it so bad, I'm scared to talk about it." Thus, the onus falls on head coach Wade Phillips who is once again suddenly on the hot seat. Helping cool matters was the selection of WR Dez Bryant in the first-round of this year’s draft. Phillips gushes when talking about Bryant, calling him the best-looking rookie he’s seen in his 33 years of coaching. QB Tony ‘Pip’ Romo will look to close out the saga behind an offense that improved by leaps and bounds last year. The script has been written. Let’s just hope Dickens doesn’t need to rewrite the ending.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Detroit (11/21)

NY GIANTS
TEAM THEME: STANDING 8-COUNT
If we didn’t know better, we’d swear Bill Parcells orchestrated this year’s Giants draft. That’s because, for the first time since 1986, New York drafted four defensive players with their first four picks. It’s usually what happens the following season when a playoff team, after opening a season with five straight wins, watches its defense go soft en route to a wobbly 8-8 conclusion – including a pair of season-ending defeats in which they were outscored by 69 points. Residing in the ferociously tough NFC East, Tom Coughlin’s biggest free agent signings were safeties Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant. Together they should help shore up a defensive backfield that was torched the final 11 games of the campaign when they allowed 263 PYPG, as opposed to the 105 PYPG surrendered in the 5-0 start. The rest falls on the shoulders of QB Eli Manning and an offense that actually improved a tad last year. Look for Big Blue to bounce back up off the mat in 2010.
PLAY ON: as dog at Philadelphia (11/21)

PHILADELPHIA
TEAM THEME: OPERATION OVERHAUL
After going 0-5 SU and ATS against five playoff teams last year, Andy Reid knew a change was in order. And with one swift, sweep of the broom QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and a handful of other starters were swept out the door. The keys to the offense have been handed to QB Kevin Kolb, a rhythm passer who gets the ball out quickly and is extremely accurate. As a result, the Eagles likely will become a more traditional West Coast offense, heavier on short and intermediate routes like slants, curls and crossing patterns that will give receivers opportunities for yards after the catch. All of which promises to open up more opportunities for promising young WR’s DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Meanwhile, Philly’s vaunted defense has taken on a new look and a new attitude. A strong draft featured five defensive players with first five choices, tutored by ex-NFL head coach Dick Jauron. And if the overhaul doesn’t work, you ask? There’s always Michael Vick.
PLAY ON: as dog at NY Giants (12/19)

WASHINGTON
TEAM THEME: THE FUTURE IS NOW
Dan Snyder realized that after losing to the lowly Lions (Detroit was riding a 19-game losing streak and the Skins were 22-2 SU in the series since 1968) that it was time to cut the cord with Jim Zorn. Future Hall of Fame coach Mike Shanahan was signed and as a result a new makeover has taken place. After trading for 33-year-old quarterback Donovan McNabb and signing eight free agents who will be at least 30 come November, Shanahan contends it was "totally false" that he and general manager Bruce Allen were trying to recapture the magic formula that the latter's father brought to Washington from 1971-77. Meanwhile, just half of the 22 regulars from Washington's 2007 playoff team, the last to play for Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs, are on the roster. Before catching ‘Hall of Fame’ coach fever, you should know that during his first year as a coach with both Oakland and Denver, Shanahan was 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 5 or less points.
PLAY ON: at NY Giants (12/5)

[StarDust Bum]

NFC South Preview

If you are a vegan chances are you are likely a devotee of the NFC West. If you like barbeque, Cajun jambalaya and southern fried chicken, then the NFC South is sure to satisfy your palate.

It’s in this division they’ve been cooking up a winning recipe a lot lately. Atlanta, Carolina and Tampa Bay made playoff appearances three times each this past decade, while New Orleans won last year’s cook-off when they stunned Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV.

Incidentally, life on the division road has been particularly kind to members of this loop as evidenced by its 49-46 SU and 58-37 ATS mark since the league re-aligned divisions in 2002. When taking to the division road and seeking revenge they are 29-16 ATS, including 18-6 when facing a .500 or less opponent.

And when they take on the AFC North this campaign they’ll do so knowing this Mason-Dixon battle has seen the underdog go 13-4-2 ATS in the last 19 skirmishes.

Yes, there’s lots of tantalizing hors d’oeuvres to munch on when sizing up this division and it’s pretty much finger licking good.

Note: Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ATLANTA
TEAM THEME: BURN BABY BURN
Head coach Mike Smith was hot under the collar when his Falcons fell one-game short of making it back to the playoffs two years in a row last season. Completing the first-ever back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history wasn’t enough to satisfy Smith’s driving desire. Had star QB Matt Ryan not gone down to injury early in December (0-2 without him), successive playoff appearances would likely have been in the offing. In addition, RB Michael Turner missed five games last season while managing to rush for 871 yards. The 240-pound burner is a difference-maker when healthy. On the defensive front, the hope is that former Pro Bowl DE John Abraham returns to 2008 form when he had 16.5 sacks. This we know for sure: Smith does not condone losing. It’s one reason why the Falcons are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in games off a loss under his lead. Now that’s a flammable warning you need to heed.
PLAY ON: at New Orleans (9/26) – *KEY off a loss

CAROLINA
TEAM THEME: FOX TROT
After playing in SB XXXIX in 2003 and making it back to the NFC championship game in 2005, the Panthers have been on cruise control, appearing in only one post-season game since. It has fans on edge and head coach John Fox on the run. Despite averaging nearly 9.5 wins per season in his nine-year tenure with Carolina, Fox is suddenly on shaky ground. As a result, a major roster overhaul is at hand. Of the 85 players on hand at a spring minicamp, 36 weren't with the team for the final game of the 2009 season. QB Jake Delhomme (Cleveland) was cut and five-time Pro Bowl DE Julius Peppers (Chicago) was allowed to leave in free agency. The four quarterbacks on hand have a combined eight NFL starts, with rookie Jimmy Clausen challenging Matt Moore for the starting job. For a coach entering the last year of his contract and coming off an 8-8 season, it’s time to strike up the band.
PLAY ON: at New Orleans (10/3)

NEW ORLEANS
TEAM THEME: HAIL SATAN
When a team that had a total of two post-season victories the previous 42 years goes on to win three playoff games in the same season, including a coveted Super Bowl championship, we’d call that a crowning achievement. Not to say the Saints cut a deal with the Devil, but blessed they were for sure in their Super Bowl run. New Orleans trailed 24-10 at Miami before storming back to win. Down 11 at the half against Carolina, the Aint’s rallied to win by 10. And of course the classic overtime thriller against the Vikings in the NFC title game. Drew Brees refused to lose and as a result the Crescent City came full circle in its comeback over Hurricane Katrina. But as years of experience have taught us, there’s always a price to pay if ever the names ‘Satan’ or ‘Super Bowl Champion’ are in the discussion. Try as they may, the Saints may be double-cursed in 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Tampa Bay (1/2) – *KEY -7 pts or more

TAMPA BAY
TEAM THEME: BUC ‘EM
Let’s face it. With 18 undrafted free agents on the 53-man roster, Raheem Morris was a dead man walking in his rookie season last year. What he did manage to salvage out of a three-win season was plenty, though. Wins in two of the three final games of the season, including an overtime victory over Super Bowl champion New Orleans (as 14-point underdogs) topped the list. So did the fact that the Bucs went 3-6 behind QB Josh Freeman, a quantum leap over the 0-7 start they suffered before he was inserted into the lineup. Freeman has all the physical attributes and is a workaholic. He may not carry the high profile of Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, the two highly touted QB’s drafted ahead of him in the 2008 draft, but he could care less. Like Morris, all he’s looking to do is improve. Behind a super draft, look for the Bucs to ignore the critics and begin the climb back up the ladder.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. St. Louis (10/24)