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**Co-Captain** · 12-25-2004, 04:13 PM

1st BIG GAME PLAY--BOWL GOM selections and indepth Write-Up and Big Game Analysis!

**BIG GAME PLAY--BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection on:

HAWAII WARRIORS -3 (EZ 59-40 BLOWOUT WINNER!)

*KEY FACTOR # 1: Sr QB TIMMY CHANG AND Sr WR CHAD OWENS....Enough said!

-Ok Gang..I am going to keep this one simple...I have been sharing with all of you a lot of info and insights this whole year regarding the Warriors...and most of them all relate to their games at home, no matter who their opponents are, with the exceptions of some big non-conf opponents...Because of this, I am not going to repeat them all over again...I am just going to start by asking these two questions....First question, who will stop Braddah Timmy Chang, the most prolific passer in NCAA history playing in his last game ever in a Warrior uniform and in front of all his family, friends, and fans....The second question, is who is going to stop Braddah Chad Owens, also playing in his final game in a Warrior uniform and also in front of all his family, friends, and fans?...Hmmm, do you think this 106th ranked defense against the pass that this Blazers team has can stop them...I say HELL NO!...But, just for argument purposes, lets just take a look at what they have done recently....

QB Timmy Chang currently the NCAA's leader in career passing yards has a total of 16,667 yards going into his last game....But, besides holding this prestigious record, he also holds the career records for total offense (16,514 yards), pass attemtps (2,390), completions (1,357), and interceptions (80)....Very impressive performance coming from a local boy from these beautiful islands....Still, lets take a look at what he has done in his most recent games, the last 3 to be exact, and the 3 which he needed to win in order to go bowling in his final year as QB for the Warriors....Timmy in his last 3 games threw for 1,197 yards and 14 touchdowns leading the Warriors to close out the season on a 3-0 run...After the Fresno St debacle on the mainland...Coach Jones told Timmy to do one thing, and one thing only, "Shoot for the Stars and let it all hang out," well as you can see by Timmy's last 3 performance's especially his last two vs the Big Ten's NW and Mich St...he did just that Baby!..

Now on to his partner in crime, Sr SB Chad Owens...not only was he voted to his second straight, 1st Team WAC selection..but he also was voted to several All-American teams as a 2nd team WR and 2nd team All-purpose selection...and deservenly so...Owens is the Warriors Heart and Soul, both leader on and off the field and he is like Timmy, they do their talking on the field...Chad Owens in his last two games vs Big Ten opponents in NW and Mich St totally lit them the hell up...More specifically, this is what he did...Vs Northwestern's defense, Owens caught 9 passes for 155 yards and 4 TDs...and then the following week vs Mich St's defense he caught 13 passes for 283 yards and 4 TDs, while also providing the Warriors another threat as one of the nation's most dangerous punt returners.

Side Note: Oh yeah...and dont forget about Hawaii's other Sr receiving corp who are just as responsible for moving and making this Warrior air attack as potent as it is...ie, Sr WR Welch 4th in receiving for the Warriors this year....and Sr WR Komine, 3rd in receiving on this Warrior team and ranked 6th in the WAC in receiving yardage....And also making a possible return in this game is Sr SB Se'e Poumele who was Hawaii's third leading receiver before going out early in the season with an injury...His return here would simply give the Warriors one more of the many weapons to attack that Blazer defense.

*KEY FACTOR # 2 : Hawaii's Running Game Led by its Two Sr RB's West "Big Boy" Keliikipi and Sr RB Mike "Little Man" Brewster.

Yes I know, Hawaii stat wise does not have the numbers to scare anyone...but, what teams always fail to realize, is that this is not because the Warriors cant run the ball effectively, it is because they chose not to run it a lot....Big Difference...and in my opinion, good opportunity for them to take advantage of opponents defenses that is fully concerned with only stopping Timmy Chang and that Hawaii deadly passing game....Sr RB Keliikipi is a monster of a back weighing in over 280 lbs and who can catch, run, and block out of the backfield...He showed his worth vs NW and Mich St when he bulldozed several NW and Mich St defenders on his way to the scoring 3 TDs and rushing for 98 yards and 4.8 ypc average...Sr RB Mike Brewster, the scatback of the two..is also a solid back out of the backfield both running and receiving and he posted 64 yards rushing for 4.6 ypc average in both those games...but he also caught 6 passes for 35 yards and 7 ypc average which is very important in keeping those defender honest and aware that they just cant pin their ears back and rush Chang without worrying about these two backs catching it out of the backfield...In fact, with all the receivers that the WAC conf has to offer, RB Brewster is still ranked 28th among all receivers in the conference...I will bet that these two Sr will definately have their chances to shine in this one, their last harrah in Warrior uniforms, as well...

*KEY FACTOR # 3 : Hawaii's Bending But Never Breaking Defense At Home.

This year, the Warriors has had the unfortunate pleasure of being tagged the worst defense in the nation...expecially against the run where they are ranked 117th out of 117 Div 1A teams giving up 259.3 ypg on the ground this year...True, True...the Warrior defense have given up a lot of yards on the ground this year...but most of them came on the road, and most were when the Warriors were playing with a very thinned out defensive roster....This time of year and in this game is wee bit different, in that all of the Warriors wounded on defense should be back to play in this game..and this one is AT HOME, big difference...

At home, the Warriors on defense definately do step it up a notch and comes out to play with a hell of a lot more pride, intensity, and enthusiasm then they do when on the road...that is for sure...Having just a solid running offense to exploit this porous defense of the Warrors, at Home, is not enough to break them....La Tech with RB Moats, Nevada with RB Kretschmer, NW with RB Herron, and Mich St with RB's Cobb, Teague, and QB Stanton found this out...To beat the Warriors at home in their House, you have to be able to play with more Pride, more Intensity, and with more enthusiasm then the Warriors will be playing with...having the better talent, beating better teams, or coming from the better Conf will not guarantee you a victory on this turf...No Way, No How!

Now, does the Blazers have what it will take to beat the Warriors in their own House in this special Bowl game, which I remind you, is going to be the sending off party for this states most favorite and highly decorated team of local boy Warriors, in QB Timmy Chang and SB Owens to name a few....Will the Blazers have what it takes to overshadow their play...The Blazers do have a very solid offense led by QB Hackney and WR White...but after that, I dont see much that can match these two players in keeping up the pressure on the Warriors both on defense and on offense....UAB's offense hasnt scored more than 21 points in its last four games and I dont think that they want to get into a shootout with Hawaii here, who is very happy and very well equiped with many weapons to mix up the offense and keep UAB guessing all game long...I dont see UAB as having the capability of depending on other players to carry the team other then the Hackney to White combination that has found much success this year...I expect that the Warriors will plays some double coverage on White and also to blitz a hell of a lot to disrupt Hackney not giving him or White to hook up those big long passes that they have done all year long....

Side Note: This year, UAB's weakness on offense has been in their O-Line protection...and it showed as there was little to no experience outside of Matt Batusic and Andy Galloway and no depth whatsoever. It's asking a ton for this group to match the production of last year's performance when the line only allowed 14 sacks...This years Big Ugly's Unit for the Blazers gave up a whopping 32 sacks on the year, which tied them for 12th most in the nation....This is the weakness I expect the Warriors smaller and quicker blitzing players to try and exploit, keeping Hackney from sitting in the pocket where he has the ability to rip any defensive secondary apart...The Warriors wont allow him to do that, and this could play a big part in stopping the Blazers solid passing attack.

*SOME SITUATIONAL EDGES: favoring the Warriors...

1-26 Seniors say a Final Goodbye in their last game as a Warrior....Most notebly QB Timmy Chang, SB Chad Owens, CB Elimimian, RB Keliikipi and Brewster, WR Komine, Welch, and Poumele....these guys put Hawaii's offense on the map and kept it there for all the fans of Hawaii to enjoy for many many years to come...they will want to go out winners and I am expecting that the home crowd will do whatever they can to ensure that they do as well...

2-Many many distractions for the first time Bowl bound Blazers to have to deal with....coming to Hawaii in itself is enough to make any team lose their focus on playing a game..just wait till they get a fill of the other things that will make them continually lose their complete focus on this game.

3-Weather changes...just like I always mentioned, about when warm weather teams who must go to play in cold weather states...the same can be said when cold weather teams must now come to play in the Hot and Humid weather of these tropical islands...

4-Home field advantage...Enough Said!

*SOME STAT, TRENDS, AND INFO....

-UAB currently 0-2 ATS after a bye week.
-UAB 2-4 ATS last 6 games played on Turf.
-UAB 2-4 ATS in last 6 road games
-Warriors 6-2 ATS in Home games this year.
-Warriors 3-1 ATS vs Non-Conf opponents.
-Warriors 2-0 ATS as a Fav of 3.5 to 10 pts.

-Warriors averaging 42.7 ppg, 472.6 ypg, at Home this year.
-UAB averaging 26.7 ppg, 336.3 ypg, on the Road this year.
-Warriors won 4 of its last 5 games.
-UAB won just 2 out of their last 5 games.

Bottom line...this will be the last home game for all the Warrior's local stars to shine for the last time in a Warrior uniform...and it will be the last time, in awhile that we local Warrior fans will be able to see such a dominant offense like the one that these local Warrior players had throughout their careers, led by Timmy, Chad, West, Gerald, Britton, Justin, Uriah, Se'e..that we will see for some time again....Sure, there will be more local boys to step up and into the spotlight, but I dont think there will ever be another recruiting class that was filled will this much local talent who all, at one time or another, shined brightly as they led the way to a Warrior victory....This is a special Warrior class..and the people of this state definately knows this..and the atmosphere here in the islands is definately starting to show the appreciation for them as well....I simply cannot see the Warriors, at all, coming out flat as they did in their first and second Hawaii Bowl games....This one is for the 26 Seniors who will definately want to go out with one last bang....They didnt fight for their post season lives in their last 3 games, especially coming from behind vs the Big Ten's NW and Mich St, only to lose this one, No Fricken Way!...Believe That!....Take the Warriors as a BIG GAME PLAY--BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection....Merry Christmas and LETS GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC.

*BGP-BOWL GOM selection Result: EZ 59-40 Blowout Winner!

**Co-Captain** · 12-25-2004, 04:20 PM

FYI:...My 2nd.."BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection goes off this Monday!...

Aloha Gang...I will be releasing my 2nd "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection this coming Monday, Dec 27...If you missed out on my last "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GOM...an EZ WINNER on the Hawaii Warriors ov UAB...Then you definately dont want to miss out again on Banking Big on my 2nd "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GOM selection...This one should result in another solid Winner!

Go ahead and Contact me for the info on how to get on this solid play...My BGP's have simply shown throughout the entire year and in All Major Sports combined to be well worth the investment.
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For those, still interested in getting my entire "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME PACKAGE you are still welcome and encouraged to do so...I have updated and discounted my "BGP"-Bowl Game Package to reflect the current BGP's still coming up...which includes my 2nd "BGP"--Bowl GOM selection, and also my "BGP"--Bowl GOY selection, inaddition to 4 Top Rated Plays that are included as well...All of them still waiting for their turn to do some major damage!

The Best of this years "BIG GAME PLAYS"--IN THE BOWLS..still havent gone off yet..so dont hesitate getting on board for them....So far, my "BIG GAME PLAYS"--Post Season Record is currently now 7W-2L= 78%...Simply Sweet!

*Contact Info: COCAPTAINSPORTS@yaho*.COM :christmas

Today's Play...Under 51 Denver/Tenn

**Co-Captain** · 12-26-2004, 03:37 AM

**************ATTENTION ALL*****************:

For those of you who are still interested in getting on board with my "BIG GAME PLAYS"--BOWL GAME PACKAGE...you will only have until Sunday 8 pm (est) to take advantage of that discounted X-Mas Bowl Package Price...After that, my "BGP"-Bowl Package Rates will revert back to its previous amounts...then prorated thereafter, based on the number of BGPs and Top Plays selections remaining in the Bowls...

This coming MONDAY, DECEMBER 27th, my 2nd "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection will be released for either the MPC Computers Bowl (Fresno St vs Virginia) or the Motor City Bowl (Toledo vs Uconn)....All you Big Game Hunters out there looking for another solid play to Bank Big Time On again, just like we did with my 1st "BGP"-Bowl GOM selection, I released on Hawaii..a Sweet 59-40 EZ Winner! ...You definantly don't want to miss out or delay getting together with this solid play I got Up and Running NOW!.

HURRY UP! and get in on this "BGP"--Bowl Package or GOM selection....cause come Monday, I am planning on banging this BAD BOY in a Big Way!....

AND YOU DONT WANT TO BE LEFT OUT FROM THIS "BGP"--BOWL PARTY BABY!...Believe That!

Comp Play for Sunday: New Orleans

**Co-Captain** · 12-26-2004, 04:58 PM

Thanks to everyone who got on board this CFB Bowl Season...My "BIG GAME PLAYS" will definately continue to prove, as it has done throughout the entire year, and in All Major Sports combined to be simply Second to None, and worth all the Investment.

My "BIG GAME PLAYS"--YTD RECORD of 35W-12L-1P= 74.5%...SPEAKS FOR ITSELF!

Happy New Year to All and LETS GO GET EM!!....ALOHA CC.

**Co-Captain** · 12-26-2004, 09:30 PM

***MONDAY, DEC 27.....MONDAY, DEC 27....MONDAY, DEC 27....MONDAY, DEC 27***

Tomorrow (Monday, Dec 27), I will be releasing my 2nd "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection with a very indepth Write-Up and Big Game Analysis....

If any of you, would like to pick up this BGP--Game of the Month selection ONLY...Just contact me ASAP for my Western Union info and this play will be sent to you immediately thereafter.

Guys, you dont want to miss out on this "BIG GAME PLAY" ...I had seriously considered making it my Bowl GOY play, but just recently chose to instead use another solid selection for that play...Still, this one is almost as strong as a GOY play for me...Dont miss out on this one, it definately should another EZ WINNER!

***MONDAY, DEC 27.....MONDAY, DEC 27.....MONDAY, DEC 27.....MONDAY, DEC 27***

**Co-Captain** · 12-27-2004, 10:51 AM

FYI:...Hurry Up and Dont miss out Gang!...

My BIG GAME PLAY--BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection will be on the MPC Computer Bowl game...You still have time to contact me to get this very solid play that will also come with a Huge Write-Up completely breaking this BAD BOY down to the T...

Dont miss out again, on Banking Big Time with my 2nd BIG GAME PLAY-Bowl GOM selection.

**Co-Captain** · 12-27-2004, 02:23 PM

**BIG GAME PLAY--MISMATCH BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection on:

VIRGINIA -4 (buy .5pt)

-Ok, below are some Key Factors and Situational Edges that I feel will favor the Cavaliers Big in this game between the two...I also have listed some Stats, Trends, and other Info that support my play on Virginia today. So without further adui lets get to them.

**KEY FACTOR # 1: "BATTLE OF THE TRENCHES-PART 1"... Virginia's Big Uglys Unit vs Fresno St's Run Defense..

First Key to winning games is you gotta be able to RUN the Ball effectively, thus controlling the Line of Scrimmage, dictating the tempo of the game, and eventually wearing down your opponents both physically and mentally in the process!....This year, Virginia has done a lot of this, becoming one of the Best GROUND EM and POUND EM teams in the nation...Plain and Simple!....The main reason for their success on the ground is due to this team's aggressive and agile veteran Big Uglys Unit led by 1st Team All-American OG Elton "Big Daddy" Brown...This O-Line for the Cavaliers, besides being ranked the Best O-Line Unit in the ACC conf,..was also ranked by the Sporting News as the 3rd Best O-Line in the Nation..and in the Pre-season they were ranked 9th by CollegeFootballNews, which shows how underrated they might have been.

There are several more reasons why this Cavalier O-Line is so effective and efficient in dominating the trenches,..one of them is because this unit features a returning starter in every spot that has been playing together for almost their entire careers keeping the lineup remaining constant in every game...ie, Sr G Brown-1st team All-American, 2 time ACC best OL blocker, finalist for the Lombardi Award, has 37 career starts...Sr C Yarbrough-1st Team ACC and 3 year starter, who has never given up a SACK yet in all his starts, Virginia is 24-8 (.750) when he starts, has 32 career starts.....Jr LT Ferguson- 1st Team ACC, 3 year starter, who is also a black belt in Karate, has 37 career starts....Jr RT Butler- only other lineman other than Ferguson to start every game last year, has started Virginia's last 24 games...and Jr Barthelmes- 2 year starter and most versatile of all the lineman started at Rt G and Rt T....Also, the running game gets added support from their talented TE's in Jr Miller-1st Team All-American and ACC is a solid blocker as in his backup Sr TE Estes is...An important thing to being a solid unit in any position is consistency and experience...and clearly, the success of Virginia's Offense is due to this consistency and experience of its players on the O-Line..which allowed them to become extremely familiar with each other's tendencies, as well as, Coach Al Groh's system which they learned together.

What you need to also know about this group on the Cav's O-Line, is that they are NOT your typical Big Uglys unit who only plays smashmouth football...No, this group is a very agile, aggressive group that can run...Virginia relies heavily on pulling lineman instead of the more traditional straight ahead blocking styles you find in power running teams making them both potent up the middle and on the perimeter...In fact, the Cavs will pull a lineman on approxiamately 80-90% of the time on running plays...This bowl game vs Fresno will be on turf, and thats not a good thing for the Bulldogs smaller upfront players, as turf fields increase speed, and even those Big Uglys will be faster...Oh Boy, I pity the outside defenders for the Bulldogs having to stop one of these Big Monsters pulling around the ends...Can you say PANCAKE CITY!..LOL.

This year, Virginia's O-Line paved the way for their running game to rank 1st in the ACC and 12th nationally on the ground averaging 241.27 yards rushing per game, 5.2 ypc (ranked 13th), and 31 TDs (ranked 8th)......Major accomplishment, Virginia's run offense this year has improved their average by appoximately 124.6 ypg, which is the greatest single season improvement in ACC history....Solid!

Virginia's Two Headed Stud RB Tandem: Taking advantage of this O-Line's dominance is Virginia's stud RB duo of Sr Pearman and Jr Lundy...Sr RB Pearman, a 1st Team ACC selection was 2nd in the league in rushing and his backup Jr RB Lundy was 4th...RB Pearman is the 2nd leading rusher in the ACC with 985 yards...He also is averaging 5.3 ypc and scored 9 TDs rushing this year....RB Lundy, the second punch to this Virginia power running game, is ranked 4th in the ACC in rushing with 801 yards...He also averages 72.8 ypg rushing, 5.0 ypc,..but more impressive is his ability to find the end zone, scoring 16 TDs which ties him for 7th in the nation in rushing TDs and 8th in the nation in Total TDs, as well as leading this Virginia team in scoring with 96 pts...Lundy also has recorded eight 3 TD games in his career which is the most in Virginia history...And in his 36 career games, he has scored 40 TDs...Fresno St's Defense this year has not faced a team with a potent RB tandem which the Cavs possess...When they went up against the WAC's best rushing teams featuring just one stud RB in the backfield, who also has the ability to be a threat at receiving out of the backfield as well,..ie, La Tech's Moats, Utep's Jackson, and Boise St's Marks, they struggled keeping them in check and thus ended up losing...Now they must face this dominant Running team in Virginia with not just one back to kill them, but two solid RBs, who both can run and receive out of the backfield...This is simply, not good news for this Bulldog defense.

This is what the Cavalier's running game did vs their tough ACC opponents defense:....Vs Virginia Tech (4th ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 210 yards on 46 carries, and 4.6 ypc.....Vs GT'(14th ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 231 yards on 41 carries, 5.6 ypc, and 3 TDs......Vs Miami (26th ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 236 yards on 36 carries, 6.6 ypc, and 2 TDs......Vs Maryland (21st ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 310 yards on 61 carries, 5.1 ypc, and 2 TDs......Vs Clemson (28th ranked Defense), the Cavs rushed for 257 yards on 53 carries, 4.8 ypc, and 2 TDs....Only FL St's #1 Defense against the run was able to hold this Cavalier run attack to just 72 yards rushing and no TDs....Fresno St's defense is nowhere near the talent, size, or speed that this Cavaliers Run Offense has faced this year in the ACC, and the Bulldogs poor defensive stat against the run this year, vs the weak opponents of the WAC simply points to a Big Time Bulldog Beating on the ground in this game...Fresno's defense is in Big Trouble!

Fresno St's Defensive Weakness: this year, is in stopping the Run...They ended the regular season ranked 66th in the nation vs the run, allowing 155.8 ypg rushing..and this in a Conf that is known for its passing offenses...This year vs three of the WAC's best running teams this Bulldog Run Defense was pounded on the Ground, which led to their 3 losses....ie, Vs Boise St, the Bulldog Defense gave up 164 yards rushing, 3.0 ypc, 2 TDs, and 10 first downs rushing....In that game, Boise's starting RB Marks accounted for 126 of those rushing yards and averaged 5.3 ypc....Vs La Tech and RB Moats, the Bulldogs Defense gave up 292 total yards rushing and 4 TDs...RB Moats accounted for 236 of those rushing yards and all 4 TDs.

In Fresno's last 5 games played this year,..they were against most of the WAC's and the nation's worst running offenses...This is how the Fresno Defense did:....Vs SJST (7th in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 190 yards rushing....Vs Nevada (6th in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 166 yards rushing......Vs Hawaii (last in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 106 yards rushing.....Vs Rice (1st in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 286 yards rushing.....And Vs SMU (9th in WAC in rushing), Fresno St's defense gave up 121 yards rushing....Not very good stats against these poor running teams...Now they face the ACC's best and the nation's 12th ranked rushing team in Virginia and it doesn't look like they will be able to stop this bulldozer, based on their previous play against much, much weaker running teams....Again, this Fresno defense is in Big Trouble!

Side Note # 1: Besides being dominant in run blocking, this Unit is also very solid in pass blocking as well...In fact, last year, the Virginia's O-Line only gave up 12 Sacks all year, best in the ACC...This year they only allowed 15 Sacks on the season...which was again, the Fewest in the ACC and 10th lowest in the nation....They also had seven games with one or no sacks allowed.

Side Note # 2: Virginia was 1st in ACC and 25th in the nation in Total Off averaging 423.5 ypg...and 32nd in the nation in Scoring Offense averaging 29.9 ppg.

Side Note # 3: Fresno St's position weakness this year is in the LB position, where they played two young and still very inexperienced sophs.

Side Note # 4: Virginia's RB duo of Pearman and Lundy was one of only two team with two RB's ranked in the Top 10 in the ACC, the other was FL St's RB duo of Booker (5th) and Washington (7th).

Side Note # 5: Virginia has rushed for at least 220 yards on 8 occassions this season...

Side Note # 6: Virginia's O-Line outweighs Fresno's D-Line by an average of 40 lbs per man...Only one of Fresno's D-Line starters weighs more than 250 pounds..and their lack of depth in the D-Line hurts Fresno State against teams that grind out the ball, such as Virginia will....More bad news for Fresno is that they will also be without its biggest run stuffer in starting Sr NT Donyell Booker, who was ruled ineligible for this game due to academics...The 6-foot-2, 305-pounder had 24 tackles, four for a loss, with one sack and one fumble recovery on the year...and his loss will surely hurt the Bulldogs upfront in the trenches for sure..

Winning the Battle of the Trenches (Part 1) is very important as everything starts there....Virginia clearly has the edge, experience, talent, and weapons, to win this battle easily...Fresno St defense will be outmatched, outsized, and outmuscled here in this one, and as the past games showed, they definitely struggle against teams with the solid O-Lines that are good at paving the way for their solid RBs to GROUND EM and POUND EM....The Cavs are definately one of the best in the nation at doing just that...This one to me looks like the Cavs passing offense can stay dormant again if it choses to...But, don't expect it though,..as their running game will open to many play action pass opportunities and this team got to much talent in the other skilled positions not to take advantage of them....The Cavs win this battle in this trench is solid dominant fashion....Game plan will be simple vs this Bulldog defense, just GROUND EM and POUND EM BABY!

**KEY FACTOR # 2: "BATTLE OF THE TRENCHES PART 2"....Virginia's Front 7 vs Fresno St's Rush Offense.

The Second Key to winning games is being able to stop the run on defense (Battle of the Trenches Part 2)...This year, the Cavs defense was one of the best in the ACC, as well as, in the nation this year in doing just that...The Cavs defense ended the regular season ranked 3rd in the ACC and 18th in the nation in Run defense, allowing just 109.18 ypg on the ground....They are also ranked 19th in the nation in ypc run defense allowing just 3.2 ypc....In addition, they are tied for 7th in the nation in TDs given up via the run, allowing just 10 on the year...Lastly, the Cavs are ranked 14th overall in total defense, allowing just 303.3 ypg...and 11th in scoring defense giving up ONLY 15.91 ppg...OUTSTANDING!

The main reason behind this solid defense, is the athletic play from their outstanding Linebacking Unit, led by 1st Team All-American Soph Ahmad Brooks...The Sporting News ranked this LB Corp of Virginia as the Best in the Nation this year, and most will not argue with this ranking after watching Butkus award semifinalist Brooks, Blackstock, Haley, and Parham play....These guys are not only athletic, fast, and have a nose for the ball, but they are big as well..

Sr OLB Haley (6-1 247)- is 4th on the team in tackles with an average of 5.3 stops per game......Soph ILB Parham (6-3 247)- is 3rd on the team in tackles averaging 6.1 tackles per game..He had a career high 14 stops vs Miami, and solid games with 9 tackles against both Fl St and NC......Jr OLB Blackstock (6-4 240)- 2nd Team ACC..He is Virginia's dynamic pass rusher and run stopper...4th on team in tackles, 14 were TFL (44 TFL in his career), and he leads the team in sacks with 11.5 on the year...Blackstock also is 2nd in ACC history in career sacks by a LB, only behind Marco Coleman (GT) who has 27.5 sacks...and he leads the ACC with sacks per game with 1.05...He also recorded three multi-sack games vs Maryland (3 sacks), vs Miami (2 sacks), and vs GT (3 sacks).....and Soph ILB Brooks (6-4 249)- 1st Team All-American, led the team in tackles for the 2nd straight year....He also had 11 QB hurries, 10 TFL, 6 sacks, and 2 interceptions...Brooks, is also one of the fastest players on the Virginia team, and is, according to pro scouts, NFL ready right now...Spooky!

Making things easier for this unit to dominate and shut everything down is the play from Virginia's Big Dawg's Unit....This unit recorded 39 tackles for a loss this year...Jr DE Schmidt (6-3 269)- 3 year starter who leads the defensive team with 37 starts..He finished 2nd in the ACC last two years in tackling by a lineman wtih 87 each year......Sr NT Hoffman (6-4 284)- 3 year starter and ACC selection, who averages 4.5 tackles per game and ranks 2nd best ACC NT/DT in tackles by an interior lineman with 48...2nd on the team with 11 TFL and is 3rd in sacks with 5...Had a multi-sack game vs Va Tech....Fr DE Johnson (6-3 275)- averaging also 4.5 tackles per game, taking over for the injured All ACC Canty....This Cavalier D-Line Unit was ranked by the Sporting News as the 9th Best in the Nation.

Fresno St's solid rush attack: is good, but their offense has not seen or faced a defensive front as tenacious as Virginia's this year...Fresno St, while averaging a solid 228 ypg on the ground was mostly padded against poor defenses of the WAC...But, when they did face the WAC's best top defenses in Boise St and Utep, they were ineffective in running and passing which led to them losing both games...In Fresno St's last 5 games where they went on a tear, it should be noted that it was against SMU's 102nd ranked run defense, which allows 209.2 ypg, 4.9 ypc, and gave up 26 TDs.....Rice's 57th ranked run defense, which allows 150.0 ypg, 4.2 ypc, and gave up 18 TDs......Hawaii's 117th ranked run defense which allows 259.3 ypg, 5.4 ypc, and gave up 39 TDs.......Nevada's 112th ranked run defense, which allows 209.1 ypg, 4.9 ypc, and gave up 30 TDs......and against SJST's 116th ranked run defense, which allows 252.4 ypg, 5.1 ypc, and gave up 45 TDs....is NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL!

Again, this will be the Best defensive front 7 as well as, the best overall defensive unit..who gives up ONLY 109.18 ypg rushing, 3.2 ypc, and only 10 rushing TDs all year..that this Bulldogs offense will have faced, since they lost to Boise St on October 23rd....In addition, Fresno St's solid RB tandem of Sumlin and Mathis will not be the first RB duo that this Cavs defense will have faced this year, unlike what its own defense will have to do, going up against their first team with a potent RB duo....Fresno St will be the 6th team that this Cavs defense will have faced this year, who utilizes a duo RB tandem...They have already faced Fl St's Brooker and Washington, NC's Scott and Lewis, Miami's Moss and Gore, Virg Tech's Imoh and Humes, and in GT's Daniels, Grant, and Ball (QB)...Based on this, I have to say that Virginia's defense should be well experienced and prepared to face the Bulldogs tandem RB team, who wont find running on them as easy as it was in their last 5 games vs their weak-ass WAC conf opponents in their last 5 games...That is for sure!.

Side Note # 1: Virginia's pass defense ranked 23rd in the nation allowing 191.09 ypg...and hasnt allowed a 300-yard passing games all season.

Side Note # 2: Fresno's defense has have never faced a QB with the ability to be a real threat at running the ball as well, except for Boise St's Zambransky....Virginia's QB Hagan's is ranked 23rd in ACC in rushing, and averages 4.4 ypc, which makes him another threat they will need to deal with...

Side Note # 3: Pinegar was only sacked 18 times on the year, but vs the Cavs pass attacking defense, he will definately be pressured and harassed like he hasnt been pressured or harassed this year....Virginia's pass rushing unit this year recorded 34 sacks on the season...from 13 different defensive players.

Side Note # 4: Out of the 34 total Sacks recorded by Virginia this year, 23 of the sacks were by their Super Linebacking Corp...This LB Corp also was recorded 26 quarterback hurries on the year as well.

Side Note # 5: Virginia's defense also recorded a total of 83 TFL for minus 347 yards, by 19 different defensive players.

Side Note # 6: Fresno St's WRs and TEs only have two catches of 50-plus yards....And the receivers deserve as much blame as Pinegar for an unspectacular passing game. This is perhaps Fresno State’s weakest receiving group in 13 years, as there hasn’t been a 100-yard effort this season. WR Joe Fernandez has emerged as a skilled go-to man, but his 474 yards stand to be the fewest by a leading Bulldogs receiver since 1991. The tight end is used mostly as a sixth lineman.

**KEY FACTOR # 3: The Battle of the Skilled Position Players...Virginia's Secondary Offensive Weapons..

Make no doubt about it, Virginia will run, run, and run the ball almost entirely in this game exploiting Fresno St's defensive weakness against the run....but, don't expect them to stop there inregards to who they can go to help effectively move the ball down the field and/or score points, which is probably what they will do once the running game starts rolling...One of Virginia's other superstars on offense, who is a major threat against any defense in the nation, is Jr TE Miller, who just was voted as the Best TE in the nation and also a 1st Team All-American selection, along with his 1st team All ACC honors for the second straight year....TE Miller is a guarantee first rounder if he desides to come out after this bowl game is done....Miller while leading Virginia in every receiving category, also ranks 6th in the ACC in receiving and total receptions, and is tied for 3rd in the league in TDs with 5 on the year...When Fl St's #1 ranked run defense stopped the Cavs ground game, TE Miller showed why he is the best TE in the nation, as he caught 9 passes for 110 yards in that game....But, what makes Miller that much more important in Virginia's offensive scheme besides his ability to grab everything that is thrown to him, is his ability to provide this devastating Virginia running game with yet another solid run blocker...and also his ability to help keep the chains moving on crucial third downs when he is needed to use his soft hands and ability to find open spaces in the defenses.

In this game, I expect Fresno St to lock up their best secondary player and one of their top tacklers, in Safety Sanders (5-11 205), on Miller (6-5 255) all day...and this will leave Virginia's other receiving targets to find openings in Virginia West Coast style passing attack which is all about the short passing game..and which will throw its backs coming out of the backfield as well.

RB Pearman, is another weapon besides a running threat..He is also 1st in the ACC and 13th nationally in All-Purpose yards averaging 159.4 ypg...He also returned a punt 70 yards for a TD against Temple and scored a 93 yard TD on a KO return against NC this year...Pearman is also Virginia's 2nd leading receiver and is 3rd All-Time in Virginia history in receptions with 134, just 3 behind All-American Miller who is 2nd...Pearman is also just one of 34 players in Div 1A history to record both 1000 yards rushing and receiving....To say that Fresno St's LB'ers will be going up against a solid RB in Pearman is a big understatement...The Bulldogs will be no match in covering any of Virginia's RBs in Pearman, Lundy, or Santi, who will be used out of the backfield..

Another weapon which Virginia has on its offensive, and one which Fresno St's defense must also be aware of, is the Cavs very athletic and mobile QB Hagan...Before Hagan took over the helm at QB, he was Virginia's top return man and a major threat for them at WR...So you know that he's a QB with a lot of speed to run and the ability to avoid pass rushers gaining positive yards on broken plays....Hagan possesses the mobility also to throw on the run, gives another dimension to the Cavaleirs offense...Hagan, this year while only averaging 169.3 ypg through the air, he was the best in efficiency rating for all ACC QB's, completing 63.2% of his passes, which also ranks 20th in the nation...and he also was intercepted only 5 times all season...The Cavaliers also have just 8 turnovers as a team, which is fifth-fewest among the 117 teams in Division 1-A this year....The last time the Bulldogs faced a QB with the ability to be effective not only passing, but running as well was against Boise St's Zambransky who rushed for 46 yards and scored 1 TD...Zambransky a solid running QB in the WAC averages 2.8 ypc, Hagan's who possess much more speed and agility than Boise's QB, averages 4.4 ypc and scored 3 TDs....Fresno St better be very aware of Hagan as he can beat you both with his arm accuracy, and more so with his running ability...Something that Pinegar cannot do!

PK Hughes, a Groza award nominee this year, is a solid Kicker for Virginia...He is their 2nd leading scorer this season, as well as, 2nd in school history in total FG's made with 43...He is also 4th among active kickers making 82.35% of his career attempts...And although this has been a down season for him, hitting just 15 out of 22 attempts, he still is considered to be one of the nation's best PK with NFL accurate deep leg as his past stats has shown.

Side Note # 1: Virginia's RBs Pearman and Lundy along with TE Miller, have combined for 73 of the team's 161 receptions this season.

Side Note # 2: Fresno St's Mike Lingua ranks last in the Western Athletic Conference with a 36.4-yard punting average.

Side Note # 3: Fresno St's PK kicker Brett Visintainer is (9 of 12) and hasn’t had much field-goal work this year.

Side Note # 4: Virginia is ranked 5th in the nation in kickoff returns and 37th in punt returns.

Side Note # 5: Virginia KOR Marquis Weeks is downright explosive, averaging 32.2 yards per kickoff return..and has a 100 yard TD.

**SOME SITUATIONAL EDGES: favoring Virginia in this game.

SE # 1: In games where Fresno St struggled to run the ball...the game then was placed into QB Pinegar's hands and he failed miserbly in all of them....ie, vs Boise St's weak defense against the pass (ranking 2nd to last in WAC), once the Bronco's was able to shut down Fresno's running game to only 17 yards on 17 attempts for 1.0 ypc....QB Pinegar needed to move them via the air and he went 17 of 30 for 174 yards, 56%, was sacked 3 times, and threw 2 costly interceptions, in the loss...In addition, Fresno could only manage to get 9 first downs on offense in that game....In Fresno St's loss to Utep, QB Pinegar was 20-36 for just 126 yards, was sacked 3 times, and again threw 3 costly interceptions, in their loss.....and Vs La Tech, QB Pinegar went 13 for 28 for ONLY 104 yards, was sacked 2 times, and again threw 2 costly interceptions, in the loss...In fact, Fresno St QB Pinegar has thrown at least 1 interception in all but 2 games this year and has a total of 15 interceptions on the year....6 coming against Fresno's toughest games which they loss...Bottom line on Pinegar, is he looks good vs defenses that cant stop their running game, but put him against stiffer competition, where he is forced to win games on his arm, and he implodes...But also making matters more difficult for him is that his WR corp, which is actually the weakest part of this Fresno offense, is very young and inexperienced this year, as compared to last seasons wide receiving studs...This year, the Bulldogs only have one WR ranked in the top 30 WRs in the WAC conf, with Fernandez ranking 15th, but he has just 33 catches on the year, and averaging a mere 43.1 ypg ....Fresno's pass offense is also ranked as the 2nd worst in the WAC through the air, averaging only 171.7 ypg....This wont be good enough against this tough and talented defense!

SE # 2: Many people seemed to be worried about whether or not Virginia would even be motivated to play in this minor bowl game against Fresno St...Well, I say you better believe they will be motivated to play this game....Remember Guys Fresno St is not just another football team from a weaker non-BCS conf...No, Fresno St has already brought their program out into the national spotlight that many top BCS school are in.....Fresno St is no longer looked upon as that lower level program who is simply waiting for their opportunity to make a name for themselves by upsetting a bigger named opponent from a BCS Conf....The Bulldogs have already been there and done that, and several times over...So no one, including Virginia will be overlooking these Bulldogs by any means...Remember, Fresno St beat a solid ACC team in GT, in a bowl game, two years ago...GT was no pushover either, and I am sure Virginia is very aware of this sound beating that GT got at the hands of the Bulldogs...Fresno St is simply one of those non-BCS teams who have earned the respect of there peers and who have gained a national reputation and credibility, because they did the hard way....Of course, most of these big upsets occurred when they had QB Carr at the helm, and it was those big wins that put Fresno St on the map as a respected football program, and a reputation for being "Giant Killers."
Well, how will this benefit Virginia in this game, you may be wondering....Well, for one, all of this respect that Fresno St has been getting these past seasons, have made many teams aware of this program and their Bulldog Coach in Hill....Nobody, in the nation more precisely teams from a BCS conf is overlooking this team any more....There secret is out, Fresno St is simply a BCS quality team who just happens to play in a non-BCS conf.....This is why, playing and beating a team like Fresno St is no longer looked upon as an automatic thing or as a non-quality game against a sub-par team...Not anymore, playing Fresno St and beating them is now considered to be a quality win, BCS or no BCS conf....Just look at all the Football analysis who have continually made comments about the fact that Fresno St has BCS talented players who are considered capable of playing with most BCS teams...and this says a lot...This Bulldog reputation, is why I am thinking that Virginia although coming from the much superior ACC conference, wont automatically see this game against the Bulldogs as being an easy game, a cake walk for them, or a step down in class...No, I dont think that they will feel this way, simply because of what these Bulldogs have done to some solid teams in the past Two Bowl games..

SE # 3: -Some other reasons why I feel Virginia will be motivated to play this game and win it in dominant fashion..

-Virginia won't want to the next nationally ranked team to go down at the hands of these cocky Bulldogs...
-Virginia has to not like the fact that Fresno St was out head hunting after them due to their national ranking, in hopes of being able to take down yet another ranked team...I am feeling that Virginia's playeers must be looking forward to putting this Fresno St teams in their place...Whenever a lesser underdog opponent comes out and publically goes after to challenge a top ranked team, sometimes this can just motivate the better team to simply want to kick their asses all over the place and spank them back down to reality....Coach Hill, turned down their bowl game in order to specifically go against this ranked Virginia team...I also cant see Coach Groh, even allowing Hill and the Bulldogs to even have a chance at making a name for their program, in any off of this Virginia program which he is building to claim a national title one day...Groh has big goals and big plans for this Virginia football program, and he knows that a lost or a terrible showing against Fresno will hurt those plans.
-Virginia though can use this game against Fresno St to regain some of the lost prestige of their season, and especially in that lost to Va Tech in their last game....Again, Fresno St is seen by many as still a quality opponent, even though they havent beaten any notable teams recently, and I am expecting Virginia and Coach Groh to take advantage of this by dismantling them..like a national powerhouse is suppose to do...No time for close games, Virginia needs to continue demolishing lower level teams...
-Virginia's Coach Groh is a great motivator who will get his team well prepared for this game against Fresno St....He has proven to be capable of getting his team to respond quickly off of a bad or disappointing lost and game, with a solid dominating performance in their next game...Virginia has showed there ability to do this in their games following a loss to Fl St and Miami, by winning both of them by a 20 and 21 pt margin.....This kind of performances by a team, is a testiment to how good a coach is in being able to motivate, keep them focused, and in preparing them for their next opponent...I have all the faith in Coach Groh's ability to get his team filled with NFL talented players ready to perform well coming off of their lost to instate rival Va Tech...Groh was a proven motivator when he was at NE, and he has shown this ability as well, the last two seasons when Virginia went to the lower Continent Tire Bowl Games, which they won both in very solid fashion....Remember, Coach Groh, is a disciple of Coach Belichik and a disciple of Coach Parcells, so you know why he is as serious as they are in their jobs...Enough Said!
These are some comments by Coach Groh and one of his senior players, in regards to this bowl game..."We're looking forward to playing another game," Groh said. "And we're looking forward to winning against whomever and wherever we play."....The players, especially the seniors, said they look forward to ending their season and their college careers on a winning note. "We want another chance to win another game," senior safety Marquis Weeks said. "That's the only way I want to end my career at the University of Virginia."....Groh has instilled a strong work ethic and discipline into these players..and they wont stop doing what they do just because they are not where others, including themselves thought they were capable of being....Groh is taking this one step at a time, but he is set on taking making it a forward step and so is his players....Losing to Fresno is not on the plan of things to do, you can be sure of this..

SE # 4: In this game, Fresno St will have the advantage of having played on in this stadium and on this Blue turf before....but, I think that Virginia will be able to adepted better to playing in the colder weather in Boise....then Fresno St players will be used to....Remember, warm weather team from California, playing in cold weather usually arent the best team to side with....The weather temp may work against the Bulldogs if the temp drops down to the low 20's...

SE # 5: This Virginia team is simply loaded on both sides of the ball with NFL caliber players...and it was rumored that many underclassman may be joining the outgoing seniors in entering next years NFL draft...If this is so, I would have to expect a all out performance by these star Cav players who will be using this game to impress the scouts one last time before the drafts...I still remember when Jr RB from Oregon St announced he would come out early and then went on to have a career game in the Las Vegas Bowl...I also remember how DB D' Angelo Hall from Va Tech used that game against California to show case his skills both on defense and on special teams...these players simply went all out....Virginia has several Sr's projected to be early round draft picks...and they will need to solidify their standings with a solid performance in this big bowl game...A lot of reasons and angles to find something to motivate this Virginia team in this game....Plus, with Groh's Bowl preparation he should be able to make sure they are ready for this one...

*SOME STAT, TRENDS, AND INFO:

-Fresno St is 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games after a bye week since 1992.
-Fresno St is currently 0-2 ATS, 2-5 ATS the last 3 seasons, and 7-14 ATS since 1992, when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.
-Virginia is currently 2-0 ATS after a bye week.
-Virginia is 6-3 ATS as a FAV.
-Virginia is 2-0 SU and ATS in last 2 bowl games.
-Virginia is 2-0 ATS last 2 games played on neutral field.
-Virginia is 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games off a loss vs conf rival.
-Virginia is currently 1-0 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.

-Fresno in their 4 games played on Turf this year averages just 290.7 ypg, while opponents averaged 343.5 ypg.
-Virginia in their 1 game played on Turf this year, averaged 504.00 ypg, while their opponent gained just 260 ypg.
-Fresno's Def in their last 5 games allowed 173.8 ypg rushing and 4.28 ypc...this was against 1-9 SJST, 4-7 Nevada, 8-5 Hawaii(only Bowl team), 3-8 Rice, and 3-8 SMU.
-Virginia's Def in their last 5 games allowed just 116.4 ypg rushing and 3.2 ypc....this was against 9-2 Va Tech(Bowl Team), 6-5 GT (Bowl Team), 8-3 Miami (Bowl Team),. 5-6 Maryland, and 1-9 Duke..

-Coach Al Groh was voted as the American Football Coaches Association 2004 Region 1 Coach of the Year....What makes this a special award, is that this is the only Coach of the Year award which is voted on exclusively by the coaches themselves....Coach of the Year's usually wont make an ass out of themselves on National TV vs inferior opponents...This award given to Groh by the coachs should be a reminder to Groh not to let this happen..
-Virginia has had the toughest schedule #28 to Fresno's #105.
-Fresno St only sold an estimated 2,500 tickets

*INTERESTING FINAL SIDE NOTE: The last thing which I found to be interesting facts regarding Fresno St's 3 losses they had on the year, was that it was against teams which possessed one, two, or a combination of these things....

1- A mobile running QB....ie, Boise St's Zambransky.
2- Multi-talented RB's......ie, Utep's Jackson and La Tech's Moats, both of who are a threat running as well as receiving.
3- Solid RB and Solid and Experienced O-Line.Combo.....ie, La Tech's O-Line and RB Moats.
4- A defense with Solid LB'ers......ie, Boise St with LB Hall, La Tech with LB Santiago, and Utep with LB's Rodriguez and Avalos..(these four LB'ers were rated as the Top 4 LB'ers in the Wac this year.)
5- A team with a Solid PK......ie, Boise St's PK Jones, and Utep's PK Schneider.
6- A Top notch clutch Receiver.......ie, Boise St's WR Acree, and Utep's Higgins.
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*Problem for Fresno St, is that this Virginia team possess every one of these things.....

1- QB Hagan's Mobility.
2- RB Pearman and Lundy are both running and receiving threats.
3- Solid RB's in Pearman and Lundy who run behind a very experienced O-Line, which is ranked as the 3rd best in the nation.,
4- Virginia's LB'ing Corp led by Brooks, Blackstock, Haley, and Parham....They are ranked as the Best LB'ing Corp.in the Nation.
5- Virginia's PK Hughes....was voted to Lou Grohza award list watch for the nations best PK.
6- Virginia's Mr Clutch....All-American TE Miller.

Bottom line in this one...Virginia will be able to dominate and completely control the Trenches from both sides of the ball..This is where everything will start for Virgiina's potent rush attack lead by probably the best tandem RB duo in the nation, who will simply find a lot of room to run behind their Superior O-Line led by All-American OG Elton Brown...where he goes, no one will be able to stop him...Not good for the Bulldogs defenders....On the defensive side of the field, the trenches is where the Bulldogs running offense will stall, as their tandem RB duo should find little to no success running, at will, against the nations Best LBing Corp lead by Soph All-American sensation Ahmad Brooks...He and his fellow stud LB'ers should be able to stuff Fresno's running game down, thus putting all the pressure on the Bulldogs QB Pinegar, who has already proven to be incappable of winning games for Fresno when put in this position and especially with this weak WR unit.....Once, Virginia controls the trenches..look for their other muti-talented weapons on offense, ie, All-American TE Miller, and All ACC RB Pearman, to start taking advantage of the Bulldogs defense selling out to stop the Cavs devastating ground attack...But, this one will all over once the Cavs running game, closes in on that magic rushing yardage number of 200 yards...If they exceed this mark, which I feel they will by the 3rd Q, this game will all but over for the scrappy but very outclassed and outmanned Fresno St Bulldogs....Virginia simply has to much size, talent, speed, and athleticism for this Bulldog team to try and match....Fresno St, will definately find out, after this game,..that they simply bit off more than they could chew this time...and that their reputation of being "Giant Killers" , should only be used when referring to those David Carr years....Take the Vaginia Cavaliers as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--MISMATCH BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH selection.....Good luck and LETS GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC

**Co-Captain** · 12-28-2004, 10:56 AM

Disappointing way to lose this play...Virginia's main offensive weapon and the ACC's all-purpose leader RB Pearman goes down with an injury...Fresno's poor passing offense scores 5 tds via the pass, and completed to 5 different receivers..the biggest coming in OT from a TE with just 4 receptions on the year...and making this games result even more dissappointing was witnessing the refs screwing Virginia out of a possible 21 pts..with 3 terrible calls...ie, 50 yard Reception by Virginia to Fresno's 20 called out of bounds, which replay showed a foot was down..which led to a punt.....Then, a 50 yard run by virginia down to Fresno's 5 called back due to a CHEAP holding call, thus killing another drive....And a Interception by a Virginia defender inside of Fresno's RZ called out of bounds, thus resulting in a Fresno score....

They say that winning a game usually comes down to 3 to 5 big plays....It to bad that the refs calling this game, were involved in taking away 3 very big plays from Virginia...Very unfortunate turn of events to say the least...But, like everything else involved with this game we love so much...Got to remember that nothing is a guarantee, many unknown intangibles can and do exist, and also THE REFS ARE A PART OF THIS GAME...Anyways, Congrats to Fresno St and all Bulldog backers.
---------------------------------

Moving on, my overall Bowl Game Record is currently: 6W-1L= 86%....(BGP's 1-1..Top Plays 1-0..Reg Plays 4-0)

And the Best is still yet to come...Aloha CC. :uzi:

**Co-Captain** · 12-28-2004, 11:10 AM

*********ATTENTION ALL:..."BIG GAME PLAY" UPGRADE...****************

Ok Gang...I previously had scheduled to release a Solid Top Rated Play selections in one of todays Two Bowl games,..but after additional info and several insights became available to me..I decided that they warranted an upgrade of my Top Rated Play to a "BIG GAME PLAY"selection rating..

-Those of you who already purchased my complete "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME PACKAGE...you will be sent the upgraded play and info, at no additional cost, of course.

-For others looking to sign up TODAY for my entire "BGP"-Bowl Package, you will get this additional "BIG GAME PLAY" as a BONUS to the package, and at no additional or increased cost...

-And, for those who has been purchasing my BGP's and Top Rated Plays separately,...You can get today's upgraded "BIG GAME PLAY" selection, for the same special discounted price, which I have also extended to cover both today's and tomorrow's "BIG GAME PLAYS"...Dont miss out on these Specials running now!

**For today's upgraded "BIG GAME PLAY"-selection, or to sign up for my complete "BGP"-Bowl Game Package...Simply contact me at the Email Address posted below, and lets get back to Rockin!

Contact Info: COCAPTAINSPORTS@YAHO*.COM

As I mentioned above, the Best Plays is still yet to Come!...Aloha CC.

**Co-Captain** · 12-28-2004, 06:34 PM

FYI:..

Today's upgraded "BIG GAME PLAY"...is on tonights Insight Bowl...so there you still have time to get on it...Never lost two BGP's in a row, in any sport...and I like this play a lot.

Reg Play On: Miami Ohio +2

You can send payment using Paypal to my Email Address: COCAPTAINSPORTS@YAHO*.COM

**Co-Captain** · 12-28-2004, 10:15 PM

**"BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK selection on:

Oregon St -3.5

--Ok, below are some Key Factors and Situational Edges that I feel will favor the Beavers Big in this game between the two...I also have listed some Stats, Trends, and other Info that support my play on Oregon St today. So without further adui lets get to them.

*KEY FACTOR # 1: Oregon St's High Flying Pass Attack led by Sr QB Derrick Anderson and WR Mike Hass.....

This matchup reminds me of the Hawaii/UAB game played in the Hawaii Bowl, where you had the Warriors Top Ranked Pass Attack led by QB Timmy Chang and WR Chad Owens, who went against UAB's 106th ranked passing defense....Hmmm, can you say deja vu?....To keep this one simple and to the point, Oregon St's has the 8th ranked passing offense in the nation, led by one of the Pac-10's all-time passing leaders in QB Anderson, and who is averaging 304 ypg through the air will definately have a huge advantage on offense as they will be facing a Notre Dame defense who is currently ranked 114th in the nation in pass defense, giving up 274.27 ypg passing....Can you say, Bombs Away.

QB Anderson, like QB Timmy Chang of Hawaii, has had one of those stellar careers passing the ball around a lot...In fact, the passing numbers that Anderson was able to put up in his career is considered to be one of the most productive in Pac-10 history...Currently he has passed for a total of 10,891 yards and 75 TDs...He also has thrown 57 interceptions as well, but when you throw it up this many times, interceptions should be expected.....Still, what makes Anderson's accomplishments that much more impressive as well, is that he, just like Timmy Chang, had to do it without the benefit of some kind of running game which usually helps to make the passing game more effective and efficient....But, with the loss of running sensation Stephen Jackson, who left school early to enter the NFL and now plays for St Louis, Anderson, this year was left to carry the Beaver's offense on the strength of his arm and his ability to led an almost entirely one-dimensional offense to success...Oregon State, this year, ranked second-to-last nationally in rushing, gaining just 75.27 yards per game....But, Anderson, just like Hawaii's Timmy Chang, simply possessed an overwhelming athletic ability at passing the ball with a lot of success, making up for their other areas of ineptness, most times, in their inability to move it on the ground....This ability seem to have paid off for him as he was able to have his best season of his career passing for 3,257 yards and 25 TDs....Which definately is a big reason why the Beavers were able to turn their season around in the 2nd half, to still qualify for a bowl game, despite playing one of the nation's toughest schedules....Anderson got hot down the stretch winning their last game vs in-state rival Oregon which they needed to win in order to qualify for a season ending and college career ending bowl game....

Although Anderson is credited a lot with being the major reason for the 6-5 Beavers to go bowling today, he, just like Timmy Chang once again, couldnt have done it without a partner in crime....For Timmy, his partner in crime was SB Chad Owens, a former walk on player who reached All-American status with his receiving and special teams abilities.....For Derek, his partner in crime is WR Mike Hass, also a former walk on, that teamed with him to produce one of the nation's unstoppable QB to WR connections....WR Hass this year, ranks third nationally in average receiving yards per a game with 115.8...He also finished the season with 81 receptions for 1274 yards and 7 TDs...and ranks 1st in the Pac-10 in total receiving yards, along with QB Anderson ranking 1st in the Pac-10 in total passing yards,...just like how Timmy and Chad finished ranked in their conf.....But, probably the best similarity that QB Anderson and WR Hass has with QB Chang and WR Owens, was in the way both of them finished off their regular season on a 3 game tear through the air...as both Anderson and Hass came up with some of their best performances over these final three weeks of the year,...Anderson shooting for the stars and Hass catching everything insight creating an unstoppable tandem....which enabled them to win and qualify for a Bowl game, not only for their team, but also for themselves to enjoy one last Bowl game to cap off their outstanding college careers...This game will be Anderson and Hass, national coming out party and the ND secondary will provide the perfect opponent to propell these two to Iconic status....Hmmm, just like what UAB's secondary did for Timmy and Chad...LOL....Damn, this is definately deja vu in the makings...

Anyways, despite Oregon St's offense being one-dimensional, few teams in the second half of the season were able to stop the connection of Derek Anderson to Mike Hass...and if Hawaii's blowout win over UAB at the hands of the unstoppable connection of Chang to Owens, whose ended their seasons in very similar fashion as Anderson to Hass did, is any indication of how this one could also end up....I say ND better get ready for more embarrassing highlights and segments of how their once storied football program is officially no more...

ND Weakness on defense is against the pass:..Currently, the Irish rank 114th in the nation in pass defense...and having to face the nations 8th best air attack is not a good thing at all....In all the 5 games which ND has lost this year, their porous secondary allowed over 300 yards passing in all of them....More recently, in ND's last two games played, against USC's 11th ranked passing offense and Pitt's 25th ranked passing offense, the Irish gave up 10 TDs (5 to USC's Leinart and 5 to Pitt's Palko)...This was also the only two times in Notre Dame football history that the Irish defense has allowed a QB to throw 5 TDs on them.....Vs this QB for the Beavers, they better get ready for possible third consecutive game giving up 5 TD passes to an opposing teams QB, cause passing is what the Beavers offense does best and how what they live and die by...

Side Note # 1: QB Anderson threw for 322 yards in last year's Las Vegas Bowl against New Mexico and 319 yards in the 2002 Insight Bowl loss to Pittsburgh.

Side Note # 2: WR Hass ripped up Boise St's for 12 catches for 293 yards and 3 TDs, and also torched Arizona St's secondary for 172 yards on 14 receptions and 1 TD....It is simply mind boggling to even think what he could do to this very porous ND secondary....

Side Note # 3: QB Anderson closed out this year in typical Anderson style bombing away for 1,015 yards in the final three games with nine touchdowns....Notre Dame's secondary will definately get a major air assult by Anderson, who must be licking his chops right about now.

Side Note # 4: QB Anderson in his last game threw for 351 yards and TDs, in their 50-21 rout of in-state rival Oregon, which also helped them to clinched a bowl bid.

Side Note # 5injury info) ND's Sack leader Justin Tuck is considered questionable because of a lingering knee problem. In three seasons, Tuck has collected a school-record 24 1/2 sacks. This year he has 47 tackles, including 14 for lost yardage. He has another year of eligibility, but hasn't said whether he will return or enter the NFL draft.

*KEY FACTOR # 2: Oregon St's Solid Pass Defense vs ND's Offense...

OSU has definitley turned things around having won 5 of its last 6 games...and beside this being the result of QB Andersons arm or WR's Hass's great hands...A lot of the Beavers success can be attributed to their studs in their defensive secondary who's season's play has ranked them 28th in the nation in pass defense allowing only 194.09 ypg through the air this year....This pass defense also has only allowed opposing pass offenses to complete a LOW of 43% completion rate on the year..OUTSTANDING!....They have also been able to record 18 interceptions on the year, which ties them for 2nd in the Pac-10 conf, and only 1 pick behind # 1 ranked USC....

ND's pass attack led by Soph QB Quinn is currently ranked 54th in the nation, averaging just 218 ypg through the air...Quinn has thrown 15 TDs to 9 ints...and is completing just 53.7% of his attempts....First, if ND needs to play catch up after QB Anderson shreds their defense through the air...this average and lack of fire power in the passing game behind Quinn will not be enough to keep up with the Beavers...and Second, it wont be easy in the first place burning this secondary who has gained a lot of experience and earned their stripes playing in the pass happy Pac-10 conf, and especially against all those top quality WR's and QB's...
Furthermore, QB Quinn and ND may find it even more difficult moving the ball through the air...if they must do it without two of their top three WR's who are injured, in Matt Shelton (knee) and Maurice Stovall (hamstring), who both are listed as "doubtful''....for this game....If they cant go, ND will definately struggle as Shelton has been ND's deep threat with 19 catches for 518 yards and six touchdowns this year....and Stovall, who is third on the team with 21 catches for 313 yards and one touchdown.....How can ND hurt this Beaver defense inorder to keep this game close, especially if these guys cant go tonight....With their 77th nationally ranked run offense, who is averaging 133.64 ypg, and their 3.4 ypc average....Will this be enough?...I dont think so, and here is some reasons why..

The Beaver's run defense is also a solid one which ranks 30th in the nation allowing just 122.64 ypg, 3.5 ypc, and which have given up just 9 TDs this year...which is 3rd fewest in the Pac-10....A big reason for this success upfront is due to NFL prospect in DE Swancutt, who was just named the Pac-10 Co-Defensive Player of the Year, and he was the only unanimous selection on this year's All-Pac-10 Conference Football Team...Some other impressive stats by Swancutt is that he ranks 2nd in the Pac-10 in both sacks (11.5) and tackles for loss (18.5)....He also has a career total of 37 sacks and 59.5 TFLs....This year he also forced two fumbles and had 8 QB hurries, even with being double team in almost every game this year...I expect tht he will be very effective in causing problems and harassing ND's Quinn today.....

Another advantage that this solid Beaver secondary will provide, is in run support to keep ND's ground game in check....The Beaver's solid corners in Williams and Browner, who may be two of the best cover guys in the Pac-10, will be able to play man against whomever the Irish will use more in place of the injuried starters...When defenses such as Oregon St has corners who have the ability to play man coverage with outside WR's.. it allows their safeties to play up closer to the LOS to give more run support or even to utilize different blitzing schemes...Either way, it is a big advantage for a defense when their CB's have the ability to lock down and shut down an opponents WRs...I feel that Williams and Browner definately should be able to handle, on their own, whomever the Irish put out there....Expect Safety Mitch Meeuwsen to provide some solid run support when these corners play man coverage.

Side Note # 1: Oregon St's defense is surrendering only 316.7 total ypg....and has recorded 30 takeaways, including 18 interceptions...

Side Note # 2: Sr Safety Meeuwsen leads this solid pass defense with 6 ints...and Soph Safety Piscitelli is right behind him with 5 ints on the year..

Side Note # 3injury report) Notre Dame may be without two of its top three wide receivers for Tonights game..

*SOME SITUATIONAL EDGES FAVORING OREGON ST:

-SE 1: Oregon St definately has some solid NFL prospects who maybe playing in their last game tonight...I expect them to showcase their talent with a big outtining tonight....Tonight will be national coming-out party for Jr WR Hass...looking for a big night from him as he torches this weak ND secondary..

-SE 2: Just like how Timmy Chang and Chad Owens wanted to end their very prestigious careers with a big bang...I am expecting the same kind of motivation to do the same from Oregon St's Sr QB Anderson....This is his last harrah for him and I definately see him going out in style with a big game tonight...Also, inaddition to wanting to go out a winner...Anderson will also want to have a big game to impress the scouts who definately will be looking at him as a potential draft pick...And this goes for others like Hass, Sr DE Swancutt, Sr Safety Meeuwsen, and the others who have a lot to play for then just to go out on a winning note...Big key to motivation..

-SE 3: The Beaver's ended their season on a tear, playing solid on both sides of the ball, winning 5 of their last 6 games...ND didnt end their regular season on a strong note by any means, losing 3 of their last 5 games....The Irish's last two games of the season, which they lost, was probably the worst for them both mentally and physically...ie, vs Pitt in their last home game of the year, a game they should of won...they ended up blowing the lead and thus losing a close one, in the end by 4 pts....That game totally had to have been mentally very draining on them....but in the following weeks game, their last regular season game at USC..they were simply destroyed physically on both sides of the field...and both these losses may still be affecting them.

-SE 4: Who knows how exactly ND feels about all of the things that went on ending the season....And who really knows how ND will play without Willingham on the sidelines...Oregon St's mindset should be a lot better though than the Irish players, and especially coming off a solid season ending run which was topped off by their rout of in-state rival Oregon in their season finale...The Irish ended their season, as mentioned above, losing their last two games in terrible fashion..then they lost their coach as well....Then the circus surrounding ND football program started getting worse as the nation chimed in on should or shouldnt have happened, etc...This is definately not a good time to be an ND player, even with the hiring of a new head coach...The school may have for now found an answer to their questions and concerns...but now these players are the ones who is left with their questions and concerns unanswered...Not a fair situation at all to them....

-SE 5: Disadvantage for ND in this game, is that they dont have an explosive attack to be able to keep up or withstand a barage by Anderson and Hass if they should get up early..and their weakness on defense plays right into the strengths of the Beaver's offense...and recent injuries to key personal just make their situation worse.

*SOME STATS, TRENDS, AND INFO.....

-Oregon St is 6-0 ATS after playing a conf game.
-Oregon St is 5-1 ATS as a FAV.
-Oregon St is 3-0 ATS as a Fav of 3.5 to 10 pts.
-Oregon St is 3-1 ATS in games played on grass fields.
-Oregon St is 4-0 ATS off a win over a conf rival.
-ND is 1-4 ATS their last 5 games after 2 or more consecutive SU losses.
-ND is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.

-Oregon St went 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
-ND went 2-3 SU and ATS in their last 5 games.
-Oregon St's Defense in 4 games played on grass is holding opponents offense's to a low of 282.5 ypg, 3.9 ypp, and 20.5 ppg.
-ND's Offense in their last 5 road games is averaging just 20.4 ppg, and only 302.8 ypg.
-Oregon St's Defense on the Road is holding opponents to 113 yards rushing and just 42.9% completions.
-ND's Defense on the Road allowing opponents to complete 60% of their pass attempts.

Bottom line in this one...Oregon St's is in better shape both mentally and physically then ND is at this time....The Beaver's also ended their season clicking on all cylinders during the 2nd hf of the season and almost got the upset of USC in the process as well....There strengths on offense which is in their passing game, led by Sr QB Anderson finished the season ranked in the top 10 in the nation, while ND's weakness on defense, their pass defense, finished the season ranked an embarrassing 114th in the nation against the pass...Oregon St is simply the better team, that survived playing the nations toughest schedule by getting to this bowl game...while ND, had problems down the stretch which ultimately led to their coach being fired and them wondering about their football futures at ND...The Irish's only bright spot is that their defense has been solid against the run, but injury to their best defensive player could change all of this in a hurry..Still, it wont matter as the Beaver's will just attack their weakness all night long...Oregon St is simply the better team in this one between the two..and I can see any reason really why they shouldnt be able to hand the Irish another ass whooping like they did in their last bowl game played...ND teams most times always play with a lot of pride, but after what happened to them recently, I have to think that they are just to mentally and physically drained to even care really what happens in this years bowl game...I see them coming out flat and very uninspired and this leaves the door wide open in my opinion for Oregon St to turn this one into another rout....Take Oregon St as a "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK selection....Good Luck and LETS GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC..

**Co-Captain** · 12-29-2004, 02:56 AM

My "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE WEEK selection on Oregon St...was simply EZ MONEY! ! ...and my Write-Up and Big Game Analysis I posted with it, showed exactly why it would be just that!..

**Co-Captain** · 12-30-2004, 09:59 AM

FYI--BOWL UPDATE:

Ok Gang...my BGP's are continuing to roll along like always, as I hit my "BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL UNDERDOG SPECIAL...with that Sweet Outright Dog Winner on "The Ohio St Buckeyes!" ....Hell Yeah!

-As I stated to those who got in on this BGP play and which most people didnt realize is, although Okie St has a solid power running game,..the Buckeyes come from a solid Power Conf in the Big Ten...Teams from the Big Ten are built for the Power game and Ohio St is one of the most strongly built Power Teams in the nation...Power teams, like the Buckeyes, are built to establish the run and more so to Stopping the Run...That is Power Football, and the Buckeyes are one of the Best...Another Key to this game which most also missed was that the Buckeyes had Two of the best offensive equalizer out there in this game...yep, the Special Teams, with Fr sensation Ginn and All-American PK Nuggent...These two can definately make up for any teams struggles on offense...and in this game it showed....SWEET!

Anyways, congrats to all who got on yesterday's "BIG GAME PLAY"-BOWL UNDERDOG SPECIAL...I may have 1 or 2 more of these Underdog Special's coming up in the post Dec 31st Bowl games...So definately Stay Tuned, if interested!....Aloha CC.

**Co-Captain** · 12-30-2004, 10:16 AM

FYI:... "BIG GAME PLAYS"--YTD RECORDS UPDATE....

This EZ Win bring my "BIG GAME PLAY"--YTD RECORD in All Major Sports combined (2003-present) to 37W-13L-1P= 74%. (all plays DOCUMENTED and posted at the ** and/or COV***.)

-CBB BGP 2003-Present Rec: 16W-2L-1P= 89%.

-BASEBALL BGP (MLB & NCAA) 2003-04 Final Rec: 7W-3L= 70%.

-FOOTBALL BGP (NFL & NCAA) 2003-Present Rec: 14W-8L= 64%.

================================================== =====

BIG GAME PLAYS --YTD REC: 37W-13L-1P= 74%.
(All Major Sports Combined, and all DOCUMENTED!)

Announcement

"BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR..goes today!

"BIG GAME PLAY"--BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR..goes today!

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