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St Louis Rams @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
In a recent post of mine I pointed out how eventual Superbowl Winners are prone to win during the pre-season, and especially since the rise of free agency and the fall of dynasties. Add to that the win-now mentality (very few rebuilding plans) since the successes of the Panthers and Jaguars in their 2nd seasons, and the pre-season trend is even more reliable.
With both the Rams and Chiefs standing at 0-1, it is noteworthy to me that one of them will fall to 0-2 in view of the SB tendancy. In view of that fact, a few initial observances come to mind.
One, I believe the Chiefs have a far better chance at a SB title than the Rams who lack the coach and--in my opionion--the QB to get them there, much less win it. While both of these coaches went to a SB, I'm apt to believe nearly any coach could've taken the 2001 Rams to the bowl.
Two, I believe in this game home field comes into play.
Looking at these teams pre-season records with their current coaches, here's what we have:
Rams w/Martz:
3-6 SU/4-4-1 ATS on Road (0-5 SU/1-3-1 ATS last five)
Since SB Win: 1-8 SU/2-6-1 ATS All Games///0-4 SU/1-2-1 ATS Road
Chiefs w/Vermeil:
5-1 SU/4-2 ATS Home
4-1 SU & ATS off a loss All Games
*Only SU/ATS loss (when coming off a loss) was a road game, a second straight road game, and was Vermeil's first game against his former team--the Rams. The Rams were coming home off two losses and it was their SB year. Even in that setting, the Chiefs only failed to cover by 1-point.
*In his 4 SU/ATS Wins (when coming off a loss), Vermeil's Cheifs covered by 6, 10, 7, and 19-points in those games.
It is safe to say that the Chiefs are the obvious play to me. I'm not crazy about laying more than a FG in Week Two of Pre-Season, and I'm not crazy about the fact that the whole world is on the Chiefs in this one. But sometimes the whole world is right. The more comfortable play for me is the moneyline with the Chiefs -200.
If not comfortable with the moneyline, rather than double the risk you could merely accept a smaller return on the same risk, which beats the heck out of a loss in the event that the Chiefs eek out a FG win in failing to cover.
*CHIEFS PK -200
There is still time left to sign up for my annual Spread Report Online--a College and Pro Football Tipsheet now in it's 4th Season--and receive the August Early Bird Discount. The cost is about 5 and a half bucks per Issue. For more info, feel free to contact me:
dave
[email protected]
228-424-6990
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
In a recent post of mine I pointed out how eventual Superbowl Winners are prone to win during the pre-season, and especially since the rise of free agency and the fall of dynasties. Add to that the win-now mentality (very few rebuilding plans) since the successes of the Panthers and Jaguars in their 2nd seasons, and the pre-season trend is even more reliable.
With both the Rams and Chiefs standing at 0-1, it is noteworthy to me that one of them will fall to 0-2 in view of the SB tendancy. In view of that fact, a few initial observances come to mind.
One, I believe the Chiefs have a far better chance at a SB title than the Rams who lack the coach and--in my opionion--the QB to get them there, much less win it. While both of these coaches went to a SB, I'm apt to believe nearly any coach could've taken the 2001 Rams to the bowl.
Two, I believe in this game home field comes into play.
Looking at these teams pre-season records with their current coaches, here's what we have:
Rams w/Martz:
3-6 SU/4-4-1 ATS on Road (0-5 SU/1-3-1 ATS last five)
Since SB Win: 1-8 SU/2-6-1 ATS All Games///0-4 SU/1-2-1 ATS Road
Chiefs w/Vermeil:
5-1 SU/4-2 ATS Home
4-1 SU & ATS off a loss All Games
*Only SU/ATS loss (when coming off a loss) was a road game, a second straight road game, and was Vermeil's first game against his former team--the Rams. The Rams were coming home off two losses and it was their SB year. Even in that setting, the Chiefs only failed to cover by 1-point.
*In his 4 SU/ATS Wins (when coming off a loss), Vermeil's Cheifs covered by 6, 10, 7, and 19-points in those games.
It is safe to say that the Chiefs are the obvious play to me. I'm not crazy about laying more than a FG in Week Two of Pre-Season, and I'm not crazy about the fact that the whole world is on the Chiefs in this one. But sometimes the whole world is right. The more comfortable play for me is the moneyline with the Chiefs -200.
If not comfortable with the moneyline, rather than double the risk you could merely accept a smaller return on the same risk, which beats the heck out of a loss in the event that the Chiefs eek out a FG win in failing to cover.
*CHIEFS PK -200
There is still time left to sign up for my annual Spread Report Online--a College and Pro Football Tipsheet now in it's 4th Season--and receive the August Early Bird Discount. The cost is about 5 and a half bucks per Issue. For more info, feel free to contact me:
dave
[email protected]
228-424-6990
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
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