Way Are the Lakers Favored Friday

[thesandman]

After the Lakers beat the Suns last night, I wanted to play the Suns in Game 3, thinking no way they would be down 1-2 to the Lakers in the series. The line is now Lakers -3, meaning the Suns are going to go down 1-2 in the series. Down by a game the Suns would have to win Sunday to keep from going down 1-3. Why is the line saying the Suns will lose tonight, but win on Sunday. It says this because the Suns are still favored -151 to win the series.

I wanted to play the Suns big in Game 3 on the Money Line. Anyone going the other way, please tell me what I'm missing. Thanks.

[BettorsChat]

Because Kobe will shine......Don't know

[savage1]

I am not surprised at all.
Just look at the other series, where line fluctuates by 7-8 points depending on who is at home.
No brainer-Suns favored by 4 1/2-5 last night at home and now Lakers by 3 as they are home.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Because the oddsmakers realize the average person watched game 2, and will overreact as many of the talking heads are already doing. I've heard at least three "experts" say they believe the Lakers will win the series.
Not going to happen. I think playing the Suns ML in games 3 and 4 will definitely show a profit, and is as likely to go 2-0 as 0-2.

[CoverBoy]

Sandy / Savvy

Phoenix -7 game 1 at home ... away they were + 2 opening line = 9 point swing.


Nets -7 at home ... away + 2 1/2 first flash = 9 1/2 point diff.


Clippers - 5 at home game 1 ... away +5 = 10 point swing


Miami -7 at home ... away -1 = 6 point differential.


The Miami / Chicago game is the one that needs special attention.

[Tomorrows Paper]

Phoenix -7 game 1 at home ... away they were + 2 opening line = 9 point swing.


Nets -7 at home ... away + 2 1/2 first flash = 9 1/2 point diff.


Clippers - 5 at home game 1 ... away +5 = 10 point swing


Miami -7 at home ... away -1 = 6 point differential.


The Miami / Chicago game is the one that needs special attention.

Basically, the oddsmakers are saying that Miami is the play, yes?

[Tomorrows Paper]

Or, put another way, saying that Chicago is the "value play," but Miami is the winning play.

[savage1]

Coverboy-Thanks. The swing is even bigger than I thought.

[kbsooner21]

Phil Jackson

[thesandman]

Neil. As a rule of thumb, I usually make the home court advantage 3-4 points, making for a 6 to 8 point swing. I agree with what you are saying, if this were a regular season game. But, it's not and Phoenix, still favored to win the series, needs this game to get home court back. If Phoenix was going to LA up 2-0, then I could see the Lakers favored for game 3. That's all I'm basing my play on. The better team needs the win and the better team should get the win.

After Phoenix got over the shock of the Lakers 19-0 run, they outplayed the Lakers by 9 points the second half.

[CoverBoy]

Sandy

I understand ... and you're on to something !

Phoenix is favored to win the series at this point in time... -152 at Pinnacle.

I like The Suns this weekend.


Although KB makes a great point with 2 words ... Phil Jackson ... I'll never go against my best friend The Linesmaker.


Tomorrow's Paper ... I agree ... playing on Phoenix will generate a profit. As far as Chicago / Miami is concerned I'll pass. I think Miami is the side but I can NEVER trust that lard ass Shaquille to do anything I'd like for him to do. lol. He cooks games with free throws ... always has ... it's in his blood no matter how rich he is. JMO but I remain true to what I believe.

Good Luck Guys.



Sandy I've said this before ... I like your thought process a lot in wagering matters.

[TMAC951]

Because the oddsmakers realize the average person watched game 2, and will overreact as many of the talking heads are already doing. I've heard at least three "experts" say they believe the Lakers will win the series.
Not going to happen. I think playing the Suns ML in games 3 and 4 will definitely show a profit, and is as likely to go 2-0 as 0-2.

I agree 100%! Suns HUGE

[DAREALDEAL]

suns definetely go down in los angeles 3-1 la baby...then they win game 5 in phoenix!

[TMAC951]

suns definetely go down in los angeles 3-1 la baby...then they win game 5 in phoenix!

Care to make a little wager on that one my friend?? lol

[thesandman]

I Bet the Farm on the Suns Game 3

It's my ant farm. It will cost almost $15 to replace it. Thanks for the input. It helped me to play the Suns at Pinnacle for 10 units at +3, EVEN, no juice. I also played New Jersey for half as much tonight, because their sitation with the Pacers is similar to the Suns. They are the better team, although the difference between them and the Pacers is not a large as the Suns/Lakers difference. Right now Jersey can go either way, but they need to win almost as much as the Suns. Let's see how they finish.

One thing I did right was to NOT play on the Heat. Other than Dwayne Wade, they have nothing and that includes the big slow guy who can't shoot. Shaq, 2 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist and 4 TURNOVERS. Be nice to see the Bulls win one.