Tweet
I have to say that this is a game that would be only a borderline bet for me if it was part of a regular Sunday card. By that I mean that I look for a greater difference between MY line and the actual line before I'd normally bet. But this *is* the Superbowl, and everyone, including me, wants to bet the game, so I have done my normal work on the game, and will make the best of it.
Looking at the season stats, you'd make Seattle a VERY slight favourite...on the surface. But you can't really use the whole season...a) some of the stats are skewed by the fact that Rothenberger was out for a while...and b) some of the very early season games are not really relevant any longer, as teams change over the long course of the season.
Looking at the last 8 games played by each team that MEANT something...i.e. leaving out the Seattle/GB game where Seattle wasn't really trying..and the Seattle/Indy game, where Indy wasn't really trying............you STILL end up with Seattle a slight favourite. But when you figure in the strength of opposition against which those stats were achieved...Pitt has a decent edge, bringing the line back to about even...if not 1 pt. in favour of Pitt.
They had only 3 common opponents during the year, Houston, Tenn, and Jax.
In the Jax game, Rothenberger was out...so the stats aren't all that significant, but Seattle got MUCH better stats v Jax than did Pitt, including much better rushing stats. But having Maddox in at QB for Pitt meant Jax could focus more on the run, so those stats lose some importance.
In the Houston games, Seattle did MUCH better in all catagories...clearly the better results v. Houston.
In the Tennessee games, you'd have to make it about even. Pitt won big while Sea only just won...but Pitt got a +4 turnovers..so you'd expect that. But the key stats I use were even
During the entire regular season......when Pitt played teams that ended the season with a .500 or better record...they only went 4-4...showing that their wins came vs. losing teams.
Seattle, however, didn't do much better in this category. Both benefited from fairly weak competition during the regular season. Both teams have looked VERY impressive in the playoffs...but if you look at the stats for the playoff games, Seattle have been more dominant on the line...with much better net rushing stats on both sides of the ball...which is the key to the puzzle, in my opinion.
Overall....I'd have to say the games about even...with MAYBE a 1/2- 1 point edge to Seattle. But I'd add one point to Seattle in coaching advantge, as I think Holmgren gives Seattle an edge in skills and basic intelligence (sorry, Pitt fans, but I just think Cowher is *not* the sharpest pencil in the box...and in particular, Holgren will out-coach him in an in-game situation).
So...................I make Seatte good value with the 4 points (and even better at +4.5, which you can still find). Pitt may win big, and that seems to be what everyone expects....but those 4 points are really a gift on a statistically even game..or one in which Seatte could be favoured by 1 or 2.
On the total, by my calculations, using key stats that have worked will for me over the years, I conclude that the line SHOULD be 42...so the 47.5 looks to be VERY good value...and 47 is a fairly key number, so to still win if the game lands on 47 is attractive. Superbowls are scary for unders, with teams wanting to use their last moment in the spotlight to full advantage.....but the line is simply too high and the value is in the under.
I'm betting: 1 unit Seattle +4.5, 1 unit UNDER, 1 unit Moneyline, Seattle +170
Looking at the season stats, you'd make Seattle a VERY slight favourite...on the surface. But you can't really use the whole season...a) some of the stats are skewed by the fact that Rothenberger was out for a while...and b) some of the very early season games are not really relevant any longer, as teams change over the long course of the season.
Looking at the last 8 games played by each team that MEANT something...i.e. leaving out the Seattle/GB game where Seattle wasn't really trying..and the Seattle/Indy game, where Indy wasn't really trying............you STILL end up with Seattle a slight favourite. But when you figure in the strength of opposition against which those stats were achieved...Pitt has a decent edge, bringing the line back to about even...if not 1 pt. in favour of Pitt.
They had only 3 common opponents during the year, Houston, Tenn, and Jax.
In the Jax game, Rothenberger was out...so the stats aren't all that significant, but Seattle got MUCH better stats v Jax than did Pitt, including much better rushing stats. But having Maddox in at QB for Pitt meant Jax could focus more on the run, so those stats lose some importance.
In the Houston games, Seattle did MUCH better in all catagories...clearly the better results v. Houston.
In the Tennessee games, you'd have to make it about even. Pitt won big while Sea only just won...but Pitt got a +4 turnovers..so you'd expect that. But the key stats I use were even
During the entire regular season......when Pitt played teams that ended the season with a .500 or better record...they only went 4-4...showing that their wins came vs. losing teams.
Seattle, however, didn't do much better in this category. Both benefited from fairly weak competition during the regular season. Both teams have looked VERY impressive in the playoffs...but if you look at the stats for the playoff games, Seattle have been more dominant on the line...with much better net rushing stats on both sides of the ball...which is the key to the puzzle, in my opinion.
Overall....I'd have to say the games about even...with MAYBE a 1/2- 1 point edge to Seattle. But I'd add one point to Seattle in coaching advantge, as I think Holmgren gives Seattle an edge in skills and basic intelligence (sorry, Pitt fans, but I just think Cowher is *not* the sharpest pencil in the box...and in particular, Holgren will out-coach him in an in-game situation).
So...................I make Seatte good value with the 4 points (and even better at +4.5, which you can still find). Pitt may win big, and that seems to be what everyone expects....but those 4 points are really a gift on a statistically even game..or one in which Seatte could be favoured by 1 or 2.
On the total, by my calculations, using key stats that have worked will for me over the years, I conclude that the line SHOULD be 42...so the 47.5 looks to be VERY good value...and 47 is a fairly key number, so to still win if the game lands on 47 is attractive. Superbowls are scary for unders, with teams wanting to use their last moment in the spotlight to full advantage.....but the line is simply too high and the value is in the under.
I'm betting: 1 unit Seattle +4.5, 1 unit UNDER, 1 unit Moneyline, Seattle +170
It's always noon somewhere! 
Comment