Integrity of the NBA Poll

[london]

The reason I'm fairly certain that it does NOT happen, is that no matter how clever a player/offical might be in making it look like a normal part of the game........while doing something crooked to affect the outcome vs. the spread, there is one problem:

YOU CAN'T HIDE THE MONEY

In order to PROFIT from point shaving, you have to BET. These days, the online books are so sophisiticated that it would be almost impossible to get large amounts down on repeated games in which there were "odd" outcomes, without it coming to the attention of the security departments in the books.

You can get 10k or 20k down...... even that would need to be spread out to remain fairly anonymous....but try to get down 250k or more in such a way that nobody notices. And if there is a strange result in a game, and the books notice that the same account has been on the side that benefited from the possible "fix"....what do you think would happen?

They busted some people betting on the outcome of the Academy Awards just by noticing that a lot of bets on one particular canditate were coming from people who lived in zip codes that were near each other. That's small potatoes compared to what we're talking about. The books would figure it out REAL quick, if anything like that happened on anything remotely resembling an ongoing basis.

And do you think that a player earning a couple of million a year would risk ending his career (and possibly going to jail), to win 10 grand?

Now....*college* sports is a whole different story. A college kid very well *might* shave a few points for a very modest amount of money. These things would work fine for chump change. You could get 10 grand down in small chunks spread out among 20 books, and in all probability nobody would notice. But no Pro athlete would risk the consequences for anything LIKE the tiny amount of money that you could expect to get away with, which is why limits are so much higher on pro games.

[moondog22]

Isn't the NBA part of Vince McMahon's WWE ?

[savage1]

The reason I'm fairly certain that it does NOT happen, is that no matter how clever a player/offical might be in making it look like a normal part of the game........while doing something crooked to affect the outcome vs. the spread, there is one problem:

YOU CAN'T HIDE THE MONEY

In order to PROFIT from point shaving, you have to BET. These days, the online books are so sophisiticated that it would be almost impossible to get large amounts down on repeated games in which there were "odd" outcomes, without it coming to the attention of the security departments in the books.

You can get 10k or 20k down...... even that would need to be spread out to remain fairly anonymous....but try to get down 250k or more in such a way that nobody notices. And if there is a strange result in a game, and the books notice that the same account has been on the side that benefited from the possible "fix"....what do you think would happen?

They busted some people betting on the outcome of the Academy Awards just by noticing that a lot of bets on one particular canditate were coming from people who lived in zip codes that were near each other. That's small potatoes compared to what we're talking about. The books would figure it out REAL quick, if anything like that happened on anything remotely resembling an ongoing basis.

And do you think that a player earning a couple of million a year would risk ending his career (and possibly going to jail), to win 10 grand?

Now....*college* sports is a whole different story. A college kid very well *might* shave a few points for a very modest amount of money. These things would work fine for chump change. You could get 10 grand down in small chunks spread out among 20 books, and in all probability nobody would notice. But no Pro athlete would risk the consequences for anything LIKE the tiny amount of money that you could expect to get away with, which is why limits are so much higher on pro games.

I agree with some what you say, but do not agree with contention that because players make millions, that some might not try to influence the outcome of the game. As I said in a previous post, the mindset of some players and their upbringing would lead me to believe otherwise.
Why have millionaires been caught shoplifting? Why did the Vikings go out on that boat? Same thing here.

[CheechB03]

Why did the Vikings go out on that boat? Same thing here.

You can't compare pussy to point shaving. Men NEVER think clearly when it involved pussy

[savage1]

Ok Frank. (and that would apply to your "buddy" Bill Clinton also).
Anyways, aside from the "pussy" factor, if anyone thinks that ALL athletes think first about the risk/reward ratio before acting, then how about Artest and some other Pacers going up into the stands last season, the player(I can't recall his name) who stole something from Derek Jeter's locker, professional hocky players who have maimed or tried to maim other players and have received sizeable suspensions as well as fines, ahtletes who take steroids or other performance enhancing drugs to enhance their performance knowing full well that it could be very dangerous to the lives? What about multi millionaire players who have got caught either using or selling cocaine? What about players who in some cases have lost their lives because of reckless and drunken driving? The list could go on and on.
The basic point is that fame and a lot of money do not change the mindset of every athlete;some will continue to think in the manner in which they were raised.

[CheechB03]

Ok Frank. (and that would apply to your "buddy" Bill Clinton also).

LOL

I can't say I blame Bill. If I was in his position and with his power I'd be doing the same thing.

[savage1]

Frank-just don't get caught, right? lol You know in all seriousness I think one of the reasosn a fix might appeal to one of the "low life" or "my shit don't stink" NBA players(I don't mean every NBA player but lets say someone like Artest or Spreewell), is precisely because it is illegal, and that it would be fun to try to try to something like that and get away with it?.Do you see what I am saying? Morons/lowlifes like that would probably consider the challenge FIRST and wouldn't even think what it would mean to their careers if they got caught.

[CheechB03]

Frank-just don't get caught, right? lol You know in all seriousness I think one of the reasosn a fix might appeal to one of the "low life" or "my shit don't stink" NBA players(I don't mean every NBA player but lets say someone like Artest or Spreewell), is precisely because it is illegal, and that it would be fun to try to try to something like that and get away with it?.Do you see what I am saying? Morons/lowlifes like that would probably consider the challenge FIRST and wouldn't even think what it would mean to their careers if they got caught.

Savage, that is probably the best arguement I've heard. I agree with you. Thugs like Artest love going against the establishment.

[savage1]

Frank-I guess the prime example is OJ.

[london]

A fair point. Assholes like Sprewell....guys who might well be in jail if not for the fact that, against all odds, people are willing to pay to watch a bunch of genetic mutants drop a ball through a hoop.....probably WOULD try something just for the *sake* of trying it.

By the way, Frank, you said that 25% of NBA games end up within 3 pts of the spread. If you have software that can determine it....can you possibly tell me what percentage of nba Totals end up within 7 pts of the line? I've got an unusual bet offered to me, but it would depend on how often the end result in the NBA is within 7 of the spread. Thanks.

[savage1]

London-I LOVE your description of basketball and Latrine Sprewell in your last post!

[CheechB03]

A fair point. Assholes like Sprewell....guys who might well be in jail if not for the fact that, against all odds, people are willing to pay to watch a bunch of genetic mutants drop a ball through a hoop.....probably WOULD try something just for the *sake* of trying it.

There's lots of truth to that statement.

By the way, Frank, you said that 25% of NBA games end up within 3 pts of the spread. If you have software that can determine it....can you possibly tell me what percentage of nba Totals end up within 7 pts of the line? I've got an unusual bet offered to me, but it would depend on how often the end result in the NBA is within 7 of the spread. Thanks.

Since 1995 34% of NBA games are within 7 points of the total.

This season 30.6%

[london]

Many thanks for that, Frank.

By the way, let me say that as someone who is a "medium" roller...I bet about $3,000-$5,000 a game (mind you, I live in England and bet in Pounds, but that's the rough US Dollar equivilent) I see a LOT of handicapper's picks. Over the years I have managed to figure out which few are good, and which ones SOUND straight...but still lose (maybe they are honest, but just shit handicappers).

I can say with a fair bit of certainty that your NBA picks are the most solid picks by any handicapper I follow in any sport. Normally, if two guys I like are on opposite sides it's an automatic pass. You are the only guy whose picks I'll bet, no matter *who* is on the other side.

You said you don't follow college baskets...and there are a couple of guys on this board who are pretty solid.....but man, those swings!!! I get picks from one source that I bet like a religion. I can't put them on this board, but I'd be happy to give them to you any time you ask. The guy won me about 20 units two years ago, 16 last year (assuming 1 unit bets, no star system)...and had the single most amazing run I've ever seen in any sport back in november, winning 22 out of 24 bets. Since then it's been a normal chip-chop, with an upward bias. Anyway, if you want me to email you these plays every day (I send them to two people, I can easily add you to my list) just say the word.

I've got a shiny black 911 sitting downstairs that I bought new last year after the NBA season. Your handicapping paid for it, so I thank you...and my wife, who drives the thing more than I do, thanks you. Keep up the good work.

[CheechB03]

I can say with a fair bit of certainty that your NBA picks are the most solid picks by any handicapper I follow in any sport. Normally, if two guys I like are on opposite sides it's an automatic pass. You are the only guy whose picks I'll bet, no matter *who* is on the other side.

You said you don't follow college baskets...and there are a couple of guys on this board who are pretty solid.....but man, those swings!!! I get picks from one source that I bet like a religion. I can't put them on this board, but I'd be happy to give them to you any time you ask. The guy won me about 20 units two years ago, 16 last year (assuming 1 unit bets, no star system)...and had the single most amazing run I've ever seen in any sport back in november, winning 22 out of 24 bets. Since then it's been a normal chip-chop, with an upward bias. Anyway, if you want me to email you these plays every day (I send them to two people, I can easily add you to my list) just say the word.

I've got a shiny black 911 sitting downstairs that I bought new last year after the NBA season. Your handicapping paid for it, so I thank you...and my wife, who drives the thing more than I do, thanks you. Keep up the good work.

Thanks for the kind words. I appreciate them. Especially with lots of the BS that goes on here at BC.

normal chip-chop, with an upward bias

That's what sports betting is all about. I was IMing Homer about that this morning. I have no problems with days like last night (1-1) and even Saturday's 1-3 (small plays) night. As my buddy Coverboy always says "bob and weave, bob and weave then BAM BAM!"

[london]

Quote:
normal chip-chop, with an upward bias

That's what sports betting is all about. I was IMing Homer about that this morning. I have no problems with days like last night (1-1) and even Saturday's 1-3 (small plays) night. As my buddy Coverboy always says "bob and weave, bob and weave then BAM BAM!"

Yep...that's what so many people miss. Using my jar full of marble example (still the best way to portray random distribution in betting)....if your handicapping jar has 55 white and 45 black (which I'd guess is about right, in your case).....you'll win money like crazy. Out of 100 dips in the jar you'll get 55 winning marbles and 45 losers.

BUT!!

Could anyone believe that out of, say, 20 dips in the jar you'll get a neat 11 winners and 9 losers? If somebody would like to try this at home...you'll find LOTS of runs of 4 or 5 blacks in a row (despite your inherent advantage of only having 45% blacks). You'll get an amazing number of streaks of 8 blacks to 2 whites.

Over the long run, you win a lot....but oh...those swings. If you go 1-3 two days in a row, a lot of people will start thinking "Frank's lost it"...without realizing that this is NORMAL. Otherwise, we wouldn't have to bet just 3%-5% of our bankroll per play...we could fire at will. But the swings FORCE us to keep the bets modest. All that matters in the long run is how many whites are in your jar. The swings will happen, but the "Long Run" will ensure you come out ahead, as long as you don't over-bet and get wiped out by the bad runs.