Integrity of the NBA Poll

[savage1]

I noticed that in the last few days there once again have been some very strange going on in the NBA especially in the last few minutes when actual outcome had been decided. Also, I see people are questioning it besides me.
On Saturday for example Milwaukee had a 12 point lead with very little time to play.
During that time there was a very mysterious Milwaukee turnover which led to some Charlotte points, a missed free thrown by Milwaukee and then a no reason shooting foul by Magloire of Milwaukee with less than 9 seconds remaining with his team leading by 12 which cut the final margin to 10 when the line was 11;most of the big money was on Milwaukee.
Anyone who follows the NBA sees similar scenario time and time again.
Ok- here is my poll question and I am going to be very specific:

Do you think in the last few minutes of an NBA game after outcome has clearly been decided straight up, that there are sometimes attempts by certain players and/or officials to control the final pointspread outcome in either the game or total?
The choices are :
1) Yes definitely
2) Probably
3) Its about 50-50
4) Probably not
5) Definitely not
6) I don't know and I don't care as long as I win my bet
Part two of the question is that if you vote yes, in what percentage of the games in the last few minutes when either point spread or total is up for grabs(remember last few minutes is all we are talking about here) do you think this occurs.
Here is my answer:
Yes definitely and I would say in about 5 to maximum 10% of the time.

[Tony Vegas]

No. They play 82 games a year. Once the game is in hand I am sure most players just stop playing hard or smart. That leads to more head scratching plays. JMO.

[griffey_mojo]

I vote no also.

As long as there is a point spread on something people will bet on it. IMO it is only "fishy" if you lose your bet. The people that win you never hear from. When I first started doing this I would have probably thought yes but know I don't think so at all. I have learned to accept losses no matter if it is 1/2 point or 30 point ATS loss. Shit happens!

[savage1]

Here is something else related to ponder and answer-what percentage of NBA players are at least aware of the pointspread and/or total on their particular team/game on a given day?
Remember just one player on the team could know this and yet could tell it to others prior to the start of the game.
My answer is a minimum of 25% and probably closer to 30 or 40%.
Obviously, this means just that they know the pointspread and nothing more.

[CheechB03]

Probably not

Here's why. You example is a very poor example. Lines move. Do you really think at game time the players are calling to find out the line. The Milw game opened at -8 it moved to -11. Then moved back to -10. If the game was fixed I don't think they would cut it that close.

Second, IMO in all the sports I think basketball players are the dumbest. Almost all go to college. Many don't get educated. Basketball players do dumb things. Many sport athletes do dumb things. Was the fix on when Leon Lett tried recovering the blocked FG? No! He's and idiot that got caught up in the moment. I played hockey at a high level. It never stopped amazing me the dumb things athletes do at the wrong time. Some athletes thrive under pressure. Some athletes wilt.

[CheechB03]

Here is something else related to ponder and answer-what percentage of NBA players are at least aware of the pointspread and/or total on their particular team/game on a given day?
Remember just one player on the team could know this and yet could tell it to others prior to the start of the game.
My answer is a minimum of 25% and probably closer to 30 or 40%.
Obviously, this means just that they know the pointspread and nothing more.

The ones that can read read the morning paper. That is my point. The spread in the morning is often much different than the final spread. I doubt most players are aware of the final spread. We all know the final spread or the spread nearer game time is most important.

To answer your question I'd say less than 5% of the players know the final spread or the spread as gametime approaches.

[Tony Vegas]

The ones that can read read the morning paper. That is my point. The spread in the morning is often much different than the final spread. I doubt most players are aware of the final spread. We all know the final spread or the spread nearer game time is most important.

To answer your question I'd say less than 5% of the players know the final spread or the spread as gametime approaches.

Great points Frank. I didn't even think about those factors.

[CheechB03]

Regarding your Milw example I bet Milw that game and lost. I'm very aware of the unfortunate outcome. That being said let me add that Charlotte was leading the entire first half. In the 4th quarter Milw too a DD lead. The lead hovered between 10 and 13 points the last 4 minutes of the game.

Based on your logic. Three Milw players were involved. Magloire because he had the late foul. Redd because he missed the late FT. And Williams because he had the late turnover.

For me it's too much to swallow.

[vinnyvegas]

YES. I'll disagree that they do not know spread. Their family and friends know and what better way to line those people's pockets. With technology and people smart enough to encode messages or have their own sys of communicating what side of line to be on...it sounds like a stretch but it just happens too often in the most meaningless spots (Milw example) that I personally have to justify or understand it as someone knows and they are doing what they need to for whomever needs that outcome...

GL

[savage1]

Cheech-you make some good points, and I had a small wager on Milwaukee also and followed very carefully what transpired over the last few minutes.
Yes you are correct about the final pointspread as opposed to that which appears in the paper;I would say that my 25-40% does apply to the spread in the paper as opposed to the clopsing one.
However, to use your argument about NBA players being dumb in reverse, sometimes it is argued that an NBA player would not even consider trying to fix a pointspread because they make so much money to begin with.
You and I and other intelligent folks might see it that way but perhaps a "dumb" player who has been raised differently and been involved with crime or friends who have been, might not think in the logical way that we would and might oblige.
Also, as I have said before and this applies to a player who might not be dumb, it is an old axiom,that when you have all the money you have, the next thing is power; I am convinced that there are at least a few NBA players(the team/players I have suspected the most last few years from seeing so many suspicious things is the Lakers) who would love to know what they do or don't do in the last few minutes of a game will determine the outcome of many told thousands of dollars either bet on them, against them and the same for total.
I know this has been debated here before, but being older than most here and having seen so many suspicious things over the years, usually near the end of an NBA game, no one will ever convince me that at least sometimes something fishy is not going on to try to make the pointspread or total come out a certain way.

[jhedrick]

Great points Frank!!!

[CheechB03]

You and I and other intelligent folks might see it that way but perhaps a "dumb" player who has been raised differently and been involved with crime or friends who have been, might not think in the logical way that we would and might oblige.

Be careful! CapperJohn might take exception to that opinion. LOL

On a serious note. I agree. We were raised much differently. Who know's what the mind set of the NBA thug, I mean NBA athlete is.

Another reason things look fishy at the end of the games is because the linesmaker is pretty astute posting the lines. Approx 25% of NBA games end within 3 points of the point spread. That is one basket. Lots of different things can occur with the point spread that tight.

[savage1]

Cheech, and also and even to argue AGAINST myself, as Frank(that is you-sorry) has pointed out, if attempts to fix games was rampant or prevalent(I don't think it is rampant), perhaps some player or someone else would have stepped forward by now to publicly say what is going on.
HOWEVER, I am still suspicious, and until/if someone does come forward, I guess the topic will remain a debateable one.

[CheechB03]

Cheech, and also and even to argue AGAINST myself, as Frank(that is you-sorry) has pointed out, if attempts to fix games was rampant or prevalent(I don't think it is rampant), perhaps some player or someone else would have stepped forward by now to publicly say what is going on.

I agree. That's often been my #1 arguement. If the games are fixed as often as people scream FIX. At this point someone would have spilled the beans.

[meaiken]

Here is something else related to ponder and answer-what percentage of NBA players are at least aware of the pointspread and/or total on their particular team/game on a given day?
Remember just one player on the team could know this and yet could tell it to others prior to the start of the game.
My answer is a minimum of 25% and probably closer to 30 or 40%.
Obviously, this means just that they know the pointspread and nothing more.

I think nt in the NBA, but i wouldn't be surprised that in College sports, kids look at the lines.