NFL Playoffs Info

[Spearit]

PITTSBURGH -- To coach Bill Cowher, the Pittsburgh Steelers simply look right in white.

The Steelers will buck years of tradition and wear their white away uniforms in the Super Bowl against Seattle, even though they are designated by the NFL as the home team and could wear their more imposing black jersey tops.

The black jerseys and gold pants are the Steelers' traditional look, and numerous sports teams have switched to black uniforms in recent years because they believe it creates a more intimidating presence.

Cowher made the choice by himself and without consulting with ownership, saying, "We're not playing at Heinz Field so, in my mind, it's an away game."

The Steelers' unprecedented success as a road team no doubt factored into Cowher's decision to wear white for the fourth consecutive game. The Steelers are the only sixth-seeded team to reach the Super Bowl and the first to knock off the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 teams in a conference to get there. They have won in successive weeks at Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver.

Their choice will put the Seahawks in their metallic blue "home" jerseys. Seattle was 10-0 in the regular season and playoffs while wearing blue at home. But they were 0-2 away from Qwest Field, losing at Jacksonville in Week 1 and at Washington in Week 4.

The Steelers also will go against another tradition by not flying to Detroit until Monday -- normally, teams travel to the Super Bowl site on the Sunday before the game. With Pittsburgh located so close to Detroit, Cowher said there was no reason to go any earlier since the first big Super Bowl-related event is Tuesday's media day.

But it was Cowher's decision to wear white that caused the biggest stir in a town where it's difficult to drive past more than one or two houses without seeing a black and gold Terrible Towel or banner. Cowher became perplexed at the constant questioning about the issue at his weekly news conference, finally saying, "You want to know what shoes I'm wearing, too?"

"I didn't think it was that big a deal what jersey color you're wearing," Cowher said. "Maybe that's just me, OK? To me, if you're not playing at Heinz Field it's an away game. I think anyone can understand that rationale. If it's a sensitive issue to people, I'm sorry."

Sensitive issue, maybe. But could it be superstition?

"We've been playing well last three weeks on road, and this is another fourth game on the road -- I don't know if that's superstitious," he said.

Uniform issues aside, Cowher effectively revealed the Steelers' theme for the next two weeks, and it's a familiar one -- we ain't done nothing yet. Despite the Steelers' 3-for-3 AFC road sweep, he said any Super Bowl finalist's season is defined by what it does in this game and not how it gets there.

"The deal isn't done yet," he said. "This is going to be our toughest challenge. Seattle is playing at an extremely high level, and we haven't accomplished anything yet. That's the thing to keep in mind. ... it all can change in one play, one quarter, one bad game."

The Steelers know all about that, having lost four AFC title games at home and a Super Bowl in the last dozen seasons, gaining them a reputation of being a team that can't stand up to the challenge of big games. While this road run may be altering that theory, Cowher understands it will be stamped on his team again -- especially since the Steelers are favored against Seattle after being underdogs the last two weeks.

"They're just as hungry as we are," Cowher said. "It's a golden opportunity for us, but don't underestimate the challenge that's in front of us. ... You realize how hard it is to get there, but don't lose sight that the goal is to win a championship.

"Nobody remembers that you lost a Super Bowl, they remember who won a Super Bowl."

Cowher did reveal one other thought he had after the Steelers ended a streak of three consecutive losses in the AFC title game by beating Denver 34-17 Sunday.

"Thank goodness I'm not going back to Hawaii," he said.

The losing coach in each conference championship game handles the Pro Bowl teams, so Cowher has coached the AFC four times since the 1994 season. This is his second time in the Super Bowl; the Steelers lost 27-17 to Dallas in January 1996 as a two-touchdown underdog.

[Spearit]

This is to help all of you would be cappers with Super Bowl Handicapping:

Yes, yes, Steeler fans - White Jerseys they will be wearing-I hear ya. But when it comes to money lets get down and do this SB right. No doubts- Best bets only- not just throwing money at it. Remember Philly covered last year.

Up till now, we have focused entirely on the action heading up to the Super Bowl. That is because when the dust has settled and two teams have finally emerged to battle for the NFL Title in February at Ford Field, the means for successfully handicapping the big game change significantly.
In addition to all of the normal factors that a bettor has to consider on a weekly basis, the Super Bowl offers some variation.

Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a challenging period of handicapping. At no other point in the season does it pay off more to do your homework, especially considering your family and friends will probably be watching your wagers unfold with you on the big screen on game day.

The Super Bowl is undoubtedly the sporting and television event of the year. It is also clearly the largest wagered event in all of sports, as nearly everyone seems to have some sort of interest in the game. The Super Bowl seems to bring even the most novice of bettors out of the woodwork. Of course oddsmakers realize this as well, as the wagering options are increased multi-fold for the big game.

Square pools, ATS and Total wagers, Teasers, Propositions, oh my, it’s like a bettor’s buffet. Unfortunately, many of these casual bettors go uneducated into the process, and wake up the next morning not only with a hangover, but also without any money left to buy their morning coffee. After reading the remainder of this article, everyone should be much wiser come Super Bowl XL Sunday!

Remember the days of the 80’s and early 90’s when winning a Super Bowl wager was as easy as saying the words “give me the NFC team!” Well, the game has become a bit more unpredictable of late, particularly when you consider that the NFC has lost the last two games but has covered the spread in each. Consequently, more thorough preparation should go in before laying the money down. Talent and concentration level are magnified in this game, and the team with the edge in each of these usually receives more benefit of the doubt than they might during the regular season.

For example, New England was probably closer to a 4 or 5-point neutral field favorite over Philadelphia last year, yet the magnitude of the game pushed the actual number to 7.
You’ll find this type of scenario yearly, as the average spread in the Super Bowl has been favored team, -7.7. If you recall the earlier numbers from the round by round playoff trends, -7.7 is significantly higher than those figures. if you are going to grab Pitt- do it now and then wait and middle later if you like.

Furthermore, going back 20 years, the spreads in 16 of those games were set at least a TD or more and the average victory margin has been 15.5 PPG. One other fact to note is that the winning team is averaging just under 31.0 ppg, and the last team to win a Super Bowl with less than 20 points was Pittsburgh in SB IX when it beat Minnesota 16-6.

The totals set for Super Bowl games are also normally inflated above regular season and earlier playoff round standards as well. As indicated previously, the totals for most playoff games are set in the 42-point range.
For the 21 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the average posted total is 46.3. Not surprisingly, oddsmakers have been very sharp on this number, as the actual points scored in these games is right in line at 46.05 per game.

Those are just some of the basics regarding the history of the Super Bowl. Let’s take a more detailed look at the game, from a betting perspective. We’ll examine the famous “system” for betting the game, document a bunch of other key trends, and even discuss some of the less popular Super Bowl Sunday wagering options. You’ll also find a chart detailing each of the 39 previous Super Bowl Games, including spreads, scores, ATS results, and key game stats, all to help you get ready for Super Bowl Sunday.

“The System”
The details of the increasingly famous Super Bowl Betting System are sketchy, from when it started, to who is credited for it, etc. However, everyone seems to agree on its past success, though it has come up short in each of the past two seasons as New England was the ATS play in each but won while failing to cover the number. Perhaps this could signal an end to the success, but we’ll trust that these rare win, no-cover scenarios were just a bump in the road. Regarding the popularity of the system, the public has remained generally unaware of it, and as such, sportsbooks are continually able to level the balance sheet each year on public versus professional money. This could be also be aided by the fact that are still some “professionals” who are aware of it and still try to fade it, most often unsuccessfully. Let’s look at the system: Basically it concerns season wins ( Remember that Pitt is not really a 6th seed team when you consider the injury to Rothlisberger and therefore season wins is a mute point) and how each Super Bowl team fared in its Conference Championship game. It involves three steps:

Step one: Go against any team that did not cover the point spread in their Championship game.

Step two: If both teams covered in the conference championships, take the team with most straight up wins going into the Super Bowl. Now this is tough to do becuz without Rothlisberger in the mix- it wasn't the same team.

Step three: If number of wins equal, take the underdog.

It sounds simple, and it is, but it has been very successful. In fact, in the 39 previous Super Bowls, 25 games have “fit” the system. The ATS record was 19-5-1! For the last five Super Bowls, here’s how the system played out:

2005: Philadelphia and New England both covered their conference championship games, and the Patriots came in with a 16-15 edge in season wins. For the second straight year though, New England gave up a late score to lose ATS.
2004: Carolina and New England both covered their conference championship games, and the Patriots came in with a 16-14 edge in season wins. Carolina gets a “back door” score in the late moments of the game to end the system winning streak.
2003: Tampa Bay edged Oakland in the win column 14-13 after each team covered the Championship games. The Bucs roll to an easy win and cover.
2002: New England covered the AFC Title game in 2002, while St Louis lost the NFC Championship ATS. The Patriots upset the heavily favored Rams.
2001: Both Baltimore and New York won SU & ATS in the conference championship games, but Baltimore came in with more wins, 15 to 14. The Ravens dominate the game and win handily.

General Performance Trends
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 27-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 19-17-3, 52.8%.
* Double-digit favorites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.
* The SU winner is 31-5-3 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls, but as noted earlier, two of the losses have occurred in the most current back to back seasons.
* The NFC holds a 21-18 SU and 20-16-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in the last three Super Bowls.
* The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowl games!
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-9 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

Halftime Trends
* The team that wins the game SU owns a 28-11 ATS first half mark.
* The team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-6-3 ATS mark in the first half.
* The first half favorite is 20-19 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls.
* Over 53% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games, including 38 PPG in the second half of the last three Super Bowls.

Over/Under Trends
* As noted earlier, there have been 46.05 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl.
* In nine domed Super Bowl games, the total points scored per game is 48.6.
* Overall,14 of 20 Super Bowl games have gone OVER the total.
* Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total.
* Three of the six games with totals posted 50 or higher went UNDER the total.

6-Point Teaser Trends
* The underdog owns a 23-15-1 ATS Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls.
* The favorite is 28-11 ATS in Teaser plays.

Proposition Wager Analysis
There are hundreds of proposition wagers available to a bettor on Super Bowl Sunday, ranging from statistical matchups to winning point margin to the coin toss. The odds can be very enticing for many of these, but keep in mind that the odds are long for a reason. Still, it’s fun to try and predict these features, and they add a whole new flavor to watching the big game.

Here are some thoughts on a few of my personal favorite proposition options:
First player to score a TD: A well known favorite to proposition bettors. The last 10 players to earn this title include L.J. Smith, Branch, Alstott, Law (a defensive TD), Stokley, Holt (a rookie at the time), Griffith, Freeman, Rison, and Novacek. You won’t find many of these names among the league’s all time touchdown leaders, so make sure the reward is worth it. Often, some key contributors can have odds of 8-1 or more.

Team to score first and win/lose: In 27 of the 39 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won the game. This would mandate at least 2.25-1 odds if you were to choose the opposite.

Coin toss: The odds say take “Heads”, or was it “Tails”? Either way, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. Despite the lack of control or predictability, this wager remains among the most popular.Predicted Margin of Victory:

Well, add some spice now by picking a victory margin from a range of attractive choices. The payoffs are decent, and it doesn’t seem to be that difficult of a number to predict.

Statistical Performance Trends
It is the importance of execution and the pivotal role it plays in any football game, but it is even more critical in the Super Bowl. At the risk of sounding repetitive, teams that control the line of scrimmage, pass the ball efficiently, and limit their mistakes almost always come out on top. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.

* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 32-7 SU & 28-8-3 ATS.

* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 34-5 SU & 29-7-3 ATS.

* In the 39 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just twice SU and five times ATS. In fact, the last time it happened straight up was in SB XIV, when Pittsburgh used a Super Bowl record 14.71 yards per pass attempt to offset a 3-1 TO disadvantage in defeating the Rams 31-19.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 29-10 SU & 27-9-3 ATS.
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 34-1 SU & 29-5-1 ATS. However, New England qualified in both 2004 & 2005 and failed to cover either game.
* Teams that win all four categories are 22-0 SU & 20-1-1 ATS. Ironically, the only ATS loss occurred last season in Philadelphia’s ATS win, citing further evidence that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.T
his year’s playoff games and Super Bowl in Detroit figure to be as captivating as ever, with many storylines to follow, yes - such as The Bus ends career with Super Bowl Victory or Holmgren is second coach to take two teams to the super bowl and he wins. Alexander proves he is the MVP. Pitt ground game chews up clock and takes the air from beneath the wings of the Seahawks,

Spearit says----Be judicious in your selections, hope for a little luck and of course, exercise wise money management.
If so, everyone can have a prosperous SuperBowl this year. Enjoy the action, and good luck to allll.

[Spearit]

In betting on the Super Bowl- some interesting info.

The public tends to bet the underdog on the moneyline and the favorite on the spread. These two tendencies combine to force the spread and moneyline out of alignment. Whether this is the result of public betting or a linesman sleeping on the job, alert players can profit as there are many ways to benefit in these situations.

If you’re certain one of the lines is off, but not sure which, many professionals play “the middle” by betting on both the moneyline favorite and the underdog on the spread. In the last two Super Bowls, sharp bettors have profited by simply fading the public. In last year’s Super Bowl, wise guys “middled” the game by making the following bets:

$1150 to win $1000 on Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
$1498 to win $652 on New England moneyline

In this case the middle paid off as New England won by 3 points, paying sharp bettors on both the moneyline and the spread. If the Patriots had won by more than 7 (or if the Eagles won), the bets would have had a combined net loss of $498. These bets in combination are giving you 3.3 to 1 odds on the prop “Will the Patriots win by 1-7?” when the fair odds would be closer to 2.6 to 1. The gap between 3.3:1 and 2.6:1 is the overlay caused by public bettors.

There’s no guarantee that this Super Bowl will have a public-forced conversion opportunity, but the the game always presents lots of other opportunities to profit from proposition bets. There are more props on the Super Bowl than any other event and at Pinnacle Sports there are literally hundreds of low-juice props to choose from. Next week, we will focus on how to analyze the type of game props you’ll typically see in the Super Bowl. If you have a particular question on props, feel free to submit your questions to [email protected] and I will try to cover them in next week’s column.

Seattle (+3.5) v Pittsburgh O/U 47 ML +169/-179

Years ago, Super Bowls were expected to be blow-outs. Scoring was usually at a frenetic pace and the game was often effectively over by half-time. The recent trend has been parity with three of the last four Super Bowls decided by exactly three points.

Another trend to watch is that underdog bettors have won the last four Super Bowls against the spread. Notwithstanding the dominance of favorites this year, many players will be waiting in the weeds for the best price on Seattle. Between new found parity and the ever increasing amount of public money, there will always be value in the dogs for high-profile games.

This is also the first time that a low seed has opened as a favorite against a #1 seed. The Steelers are the public team in part due to recent results - they have won the last three games impressively against the top AFC seeds. In addition, two of Pittsburgh's losses happened when Ben Roethlisberger was injured.

On the other side, Seattle has quietly routed teams all year, winning the "last 13 games that mattered." The Seahawk's red-zone defense has been especially impressive - their opponents scored only 24 TDs all regular season, compared to 34 field goals. Part of this was due to Seattle's schedule, which included two games against both Arizona and San Francisco plus another freebie against Houston.

We opened this game with the Steelers as 3-point favorites, and the early money quickly pushed this up to -3.5 and -4 across the market. Once the number stabilized, we’ve had a staggering volume of balanced two-way action.
Knowing we had a good number, we raised the limits on sides bets to $100,000 per click (you can contact us for higher limits). The sharps have been quiet thus far which suggests they might play Seattle on or near game day when the dog spread is usually best for high-profile games.

We opened the moneyline at Pittsburgh -170/+160 and took nearly two Seattle bets for every one on the Steelers. Despite the influx of Seahawk money, the moneyline still drifted up due to the climbing spread. We now have the enviable position of taking Seattle money at +160, and being able to sell it off at -179. We've taken some minor sharp action, but there is no clear consensus as of yet and the light action by wise guys is split relatively evenly.

The total opened at 46.5 under (-110). We saw a moderate volume slightly favoring the over which pushed the total up to 47. The sharps have stayed off this game, possibly waiting for public money to force the total higher.

Super Bowls always have a constant upward pressure caused by public money, as the public find it painful to watch a game and constantly root for nothing to happen. Interestingly, scoring has been historically higher when -there are two weeks between the Championship games and the Super Bowl.

[Spearit]

Top Trends

Seattle
SEATTLE is 5-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH since 1992
SEATTLE is 4-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH since 1992
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992

Holmgren is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.9, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 0*)

Holmgren is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against AFC North division opponents in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Holmgren 24.1, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 1*)
Holmgren is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Holmgren 24.3, OPPONENT 21.5 - (Rating = 0*)

Play Against - Favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(30-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.2%, +17.9 units. Rating = 2*)

Play On - Underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 50 or less rushing yards last game.
(67-31 since 1983.) (68.4%, +32.9 units. Rating = 2*)

Pittsburgh

PITTSBURGH is 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 27.8, OPPONENT 15.8
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.0, OPPONENT 10.7
PITTSBURGH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 28.4, OPPONENT 18.9

PITTSBURGH is 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 27.8, OPPONENT 15.8
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.0, OPPONENT 10.7
PITTSBURGH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 28.4, OPPONENT 18.9

PITTSBURGH is 24-6 ATS (+17.4 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.4, OPPONENT 17.9 - (Rating = 3*)
PITTSBURGH is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.4, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.9, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 2*)
PITTSBURGH is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 20.6, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 0*)
PITTSBURGH is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.6, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH is 24-6 ATS (+17.4 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.4, OPPONENT 17.9 - (Rating = 3*)
PITTSBURGH is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.4, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.9, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 2*)
PITTSBURGH is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 20.6, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 0*)
PITTSBURGH is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.6, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 1*)

[Cabomike]

So who are you playing?

[Spearit]

I played Seattle +10 1/2 and over 41 as my play. Could be more defensive than that especially the first half. I sided with Seattle mainly because I like the point differential here. I may try to middle it somehow but the line is staying pretty solid.

ANALYSIS The Steelers and Seahawks have taken far different paths to reach the Super Sunday stage. Pittsburgh barely made the playoffs and was forced to beat the AFC's top three seeds on the road, while Seattle had a postseason berth wrapped up around Thanksgiving and enjoyed a couple of home games against Wild Card teams in the playoffs.

The Seahawks were the NFC's top seed and its path to this game has been much easier. Pittsburgh is a bit more sure of itself - but I sense a team can rarely have this much emotion continuously without a little letdown. Yes, Pittsburgh has answered every challenge thus far in the postseason and is more physical (They will come out snorting) and more big-game-tested than Seattle. The Seahawks weakness is that they are young in a few key areas, especially at the linebacker position, and may have some trouble as the game wears on and these weaknesses are exposed.

Seattle is good enough, however, to make this an interesting and competitive game, but look for the Seahawks to make one too many mistakes down the stretch, and for Cowher and company to raise the Lombardi Trophy much to ranting and raving of our fellow B/C Steeler Fans. Predicted score Pittsburgh 25-18 maybe 35-28 (This is so I can win the pool).

[Spearit]

My last entry - but something that most of you have missed.

1. The last five Super Bowl champions were ranked in the top 5 in Red Zone defense.

2004 Patriots (3rd)
2003 Patriots (4th)
2002 Bucs (1st)
2001 Patriots (3rd)
2000 Ravens (2nd)

The Red Zone defensive rankings of the Seahawks is 2nd & Pitt 10th.

2. There are only 4 teams that played in the Super Bowl and allowed 6 or less rushing TD’s over the course of the regular season. The previous 3 teams all won outright.

1985 Bears (6) – Won S/U & ATS
1999 Rams (4) – Won S/U & Push ATS
2000 Ravens (5) – Won S/U & ATS
2005 Seahawks (5)

3. In the long history of the Super Bowl, there have been exactly ten AFC teams that have won their championship game while scoring 33 or more points. What happened to seven of them, they all lost the game straight up with none covering the spread.

Bet AGAINST the AFC rep in the Super Bowl if they scored 33 or more in the championship game:

3-7 S/U & 1-8-1 ATS (NFC dogs are 3-1 S/U & 3-0-1 ATS with the lone S/U loss last year with NE 24-21).


4. This SB game will be the ninth time, since 1980, that BOTH of the Super Bowl participants enter the game having won their Conference Championship game by 14 or more points.

The previous eight Super Bowl games that fit into this category have seen the NFC team win seven S/U (8-0 ATS) and do so in dominating fashion.

The combined score of those seven NFC victories was NFC 272-115, for an average winning score of 39-16.

The games that fit the above situation are:

'04 NE over Philly 24-21
02 TB 41-28 over Oakland
'96 GB 35-21 over NE
'93 DALLAS 30-13 over Buffalo
'89 SF 55-10 over Denver
'85 CHICAGO 46-10 over NE
'84 SF 38-16 over Miami
'82 WASH 27-17 over Miami

Play ON the NFC Super Bowl rep if both teams come into the game having won their respective Conference Title games by 14 or more points:

(7-1 S/U & 8-0 ATS).

5. Play ON the NFC rep whenever the posted total is 40 to 48. The NFC record in these games is 8-1 S/U & 9-0 ATS since the '87 Super Bowl. The nine games are:

'87 NYG 39-21 (40)
'88 WASH 42-10 (47)
'89 SAN FRAN 20-16 (48)
'90 SAN FRAN 55-10 (48)
'91 NYG 20-19 (40.5)
'93 DALLAS 52-17 (44.5)
'00 ST LOUIS 23-16 (47.5)
'02 TAMPA BAY 48-21 (44)
'04 NE 24-21 (48)

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[Spiccoli]

Bump!!