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WOW COMMING OFF A VERY DISAPPOINTING SATURDAY GOING 5-5 FOR A SMALL (-1.6 UNIT) LOSS. WYOMING WAS CLEARLY THE BETTER TEAM, BUT 3 TURNOVERS LATER, EACH RESULTING IN A BYU SCORE, ITS A LOSS FOR US. I ALSO CANNOT BELIEVE THE OLE MISS IMPLOSION AS THEY WERE DOMINATING THE GAME FOR 3 FULL QUARTERS. A WORD TO THE WISE TODAY GUYS, THIS COULD BE A HUGE DAY OR IT CAN BE A DISASTER AS EVERY SINGLE ON OF MY PLAYS IS CLEARLY ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE TO WHERE THE MONEY IS COMMING IN. IN ANY EVENT, I HAVE WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) AN INCREDIBLE, 19 OUT OF THE LAST 22 WEEKS (86.4%) CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON IN NCAA AND NFL FOOTBALL. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
SPECIAL NOTE: THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW PLAYS THIS WEEK UNLESS THE LINES MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS I DO NOT SEE MUCH VALUE THIS WEEK.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 4 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 9 WINS 3 LOSSES (75%)
1* 12 WINS 20 LOSSES (37.5%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
WEEK #6: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.9 UNITS)
WEEK #7: 2 WINS 5 LOSSES (-3.5 UNITS)
WEEK #8: 2 WINS 4 LOSSES (-1.3 UNITS)
WEEK #9: 2 WINS 3 LOSSES (-2.4 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
4* WILL POST AFTER IT STARTS
3* BUFFALO -2
2* TAMPA BAY +1
2* BALTIMORE +6.5
1* MINNESOTA +9.5
1* SAN FRANSICO +13
1* NEW YORK JETS +9.5
Opinion: HOUSTON +17.5
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KANSAS CITY (5 - 3) at BUFFALO (3 - 5)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
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Analysis
Kansas City figures to be in a tough spot here coming off two divisional games, while the 3-5 Bills had last weekend off. Kansas City (5-3) is one game behind Denver for first place in the AFC West and lately have been getting it together, on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. Last Sunday's win was a memorable one, as KC risked it all on the game's final play and RB Larry Johnson's one-yard plunge gave the Chiefs a wild 27-23 win over the Oakland Raiders. Kansas City has the No. 7 ranked offense, with excellent balance And they take on a Buffalo run defense that is so far has been abysmal, second worst in the NFL allowing 150 yards rushing per game, 5 yards per carry. I’m not sure how much of a factor that mismatch will be this weekend as it is now confirmed that stud RB Priest Holmes is through for the year due to the concussion/neck/spine injury he suffered Oct. 30 vs. S.D. Larry Johnson (5.2 ypc) has been doing slightly better than Holmes (3.8 ypc) so far, but lets be honest, that stat is inflated as Johnson’s had the advantage of entering games fresh after Holmes had been working on opposing defenses. Holmes is also a more-experienced receiver and blocker. No matter how you want to look at it the loss of Holmes is a significant blow to the Chiefs. That injury however, might no be the most significant on this team. The Kansas City backfield is looking like an infimary ward as (starting corners Warfield and Surtain) each are questionable, and OT Willie Roaf is probably out. The loss of Roaf will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of now starting RB Larry Johnson. Buffalo, has the personal offensively take advantage of the injuries to the Chiefs backfield.
This game is also a situational nightmare for the Chiefs. The Bills are returning home off a bye week off two straight road losses, and the Chiefs are coming off an incredibly hard-fought division win vs. its AFC West archrival on the last play of the game! WOW. The Bills figure to be hungry with their season on the line knowing full well that this game could be their season. The Buffalo offensive players have rallied behind Holcomb and do not want to play the rest of the season with the horrible Loshmen, which is what is going to happen once a determination is made that the season is lost. Given the defensive injuries look for the Bills to literally pound the ball continuing to run Willis McGahee in the neighborhood of 30 + carries. This will certainly open up the passing lanes when K.C. makes the adjustment and hopefully they can muster a few nice bombs in the passing game. Also look for the veteran defense to also step up in this matchup as they feel embarrassed about their performance the last month and look to make amends. Expect an emotional Bills team playing with the season on the line against a worn-down Chiefs club. Hey what the fuck...I’ll through a pretty quirky trend to Buffalo is 10-0 ATS after playing New England. Hmmm they just played New England. Lets make it 11-0. Stampede!
Forecast: BUF Bills 28, KC Chiefs 17
PLAY 3* UNITS ON BUFFALO -2
WASHINGTON (5 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 3)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
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Analysis
Both Washington and Tampa Bay sprinted out to stellar, but deceiving early records in this 2005 season. The hype has not matched ability in recent weeks, as both teams have encountered their fair share of adversity. Tampa Bay (5-3) got humiliated last weekend in their 34-14 loss to Carolina. So what the hell, lets go right back with the Bucs this week. The loss to Carolina was the third loss in four games, resulting in them falling out of a first-place tie with Carolina and Atlanta. Chris Simms completed 25 of 41 passes for 259 yards and two interceptions and throwing a 50-yard TD pass to Joey Galloway in the second quarter. For the second week in a row Simms had no run support and very little pass protection. After running for just 43 yards against the 49ers, the Bucs gained just 44 yards rushing against Carolina. Tampa Bay also turned the ball over four times. Meanwhile, the Redskins (5-3 SU, ATS) defeated the Eagles 17-10 Sunday behind an impressive showing by QB Mark Brunell, who completed 21 of 29 passes for 224 yards. Chris Cooley caught seven passes for a career-high 85 yards. RB Clinton Portis ran 21 times for 67 yards and a touchdown. The Washington defense shut down the Eagles running game holding them to 48 yards.
The line open at pick’em and has now moved to Washington -1 with 69% of the betting public placing their bets on the Skins. This of course is a great thing for us as now Tampa is a home dog which fits nicely into their best rolls. The trend is our friend as Tampa is 14-3-1 ATS at home either taking or laying 3 or less points and also 11-4 ATS in the second of BB home games. Meanwhile, the Skins off last Sunday night's war with the Eagles are 1-6 ATS away off a win over Philly and 1-5 ATS after hosting the Green Birds. Tampa will win, which means they cover or worse case push.
Forecast: WAS Redskins 10, TB Bucs 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TAMPA BAY +1
BALTIMORE (2 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 3)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
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Analysis
I have to admit I was shocked when I saw the number on this game. Think about this for a second, the back number (total opened at 33) yet Baltimore was instilled as a 7 point dog? Is the lines man serious? By the nature of this line we will assume that this will be a very low scoring game. Naturally, that hypothesis can be supported by data as we all know that the Jaguars win with defense. Indeed, in a league dominated by big offensive numbers, Jacksonville has played 58 straight games without scoring more than 30 points in a game. The Jaguars lack any resemblance of an offensive punch such as the one who handily beat the Ravens as a home dog vs. the Bengals last Saturday. On the season Jacksonville is checking in at 18 points per game and simply put this is just too many points for a team that possess with the better defense.
The latest injury report has Fred Taylor out for this game! With Taylor the offense is mediocre, without him, it's just plain terrible. Meanwhile, the Ravens will have QB Kyle Boller returning to the starting lineup as Antony Write sustained an injury last week. Boller had out since suffering a badly dislocated toe in the season opener, and he’ll wear an insert in his shoe to prevent re-injury. HC Brian Billick says he expects Boller to play well as Boller has done plenty of throwing as the scout team QB the last two weeks in practice. Expect this contest to be extremely competitive and probably down to a field goal. As such, lets take the generous points. Thanks Mr. Lines maker!
Forecast: BAL Ravens 10, JAC Jaguars 13
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BALTIMORE +6.5
MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
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Analysis
The Minnesota Vikings (3-5 SU, ATS) are coming off a huge win to force a tie for second place in the NFC North after beating the Lions 24-17. Because of a season-ending injury to Daunte Culpepper, Brad Johnson started and passed for 136 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Michael Bennett also ran for more than 100 yards for his first 100-yard game in nearly two years. Still, Minnesota is a miserable 0-4 SU/ATS on the road where they are getting beat by a 33-8 average! Meanwhile the Giants (6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) WR Plaxico Burress and TE Jeremy Shockey made acrobatic catches leading to a pair of touchdowns as the Giants got bye the Niners 24-6 Sunday. QB Eli Manning passed for 251 yards and a touchdown (but still only managed a 54% completion percentage), Brandon Jacobs rushed for two short fourth-quarter scores and the Giants' defense yielded just 138 total yards. Burress had five catches for 79 yards in the third straight victory for the Giants.
There is plenty of motivation for the Vikings to win this weekend and I’m just not sure how motivated the football Giants will be. The Vikings are just two games behind Chicago and lots of guys on this team are currently fighting for their jobs. They also have revenge for three straight home losses to New York. We all know the Minnesota defense is terrible allowing 33.3 points per game on the road but the Giants have not been stalwarts themselves (341.8 yards allowed per game). Brad Johnson was able to move the ball effectively last week before going into ball-control mode in the second half versus Detroit and he should reduce the amount of turnovers that an injured Daunte Culpepper was giving away each Sunday. Factor in the fact that the Giants have failed to cover six straight times as chalk of -7 or more points and with the football Giants looking ahead to a showdown with the Eagles, look for Minnesota to move to 8-2 ATS as a November dog.
Forecast: MIN Vikings 24, NY Football Giants 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MINNESOTA +9.5
SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 6) at CHICAGO (5 - 3)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Week in and week out I’m always going back to the absolute worst team in the NFL...or is it that the perception of the public? Hmmmm...well the reason is because there is always so much value in their line. Last week, I selected The Niners (2-6 Su, 3-5 ATS) as my top 2* unit selection and for anybody who watched that game knows that they played the Giants evenly until the fourth quarter before losing 24-6 which is a very misleading final score. Nevertheless, San Francisco mustered just 138 total yards for the game. Cody Pickett (12-of-21 for 102 yards), the 49ers' fourth starting quarterback in five games, made few mistakes in his first start. But he couldn't spark anything behind San Francisco's horrible offensive line, which committed several penalties and rarely allowed Pickett a moment's peace. The 49ers are 0-3 SU/ATS on the road. San Fran's defense is last in the NFL allowing 417 yards per game, while the offense is also dead last! The 49ers know that Chicago likes to run the football, so they may try the same trick they did against the Bucs, stack the line with 7-8 men to take away the run. The Bears (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) managed a 20-17 win over the Saints Sunday as Adrian Peterson and Cedric Benson combined for 137 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries and Kyle Orton kept mistakes to a minimum. Orton was 12-of-26 for 137 yards and a touchdown and was intercepted twice.
Ok, so when we place out bet this Sunday were going to the window and getting a solid 13 points. This is a good thing as before kickoff we have a nice 13 point lead, and we know that the Bears with a rookie at QB, inexperienced running backs carrying the rushing and blocking load (Thomas Jones will not be 100% if he plays) will struggle to muster any offense against this underrated stop unit. Here are the guys who will have to beat us...RB Cedric Benson, a rookie, and Adrian Peterson. Inexperienced running backs are very good at a couple of things, fumbling, and not picking up blitzes. The 49ers have a nasty, physical, underrated, blitz-happy defense that can force the issue. The Bears must play in safe mode with unsafe players. They also just released fullback Marc Edwards a starter in five of eight games this season creating more instability in the backfield. The Bears right tackle Fred Miller is out. Also, left guard Ruben Brown and safety Todd Johnson are questionable. The Bears have had to play slightly out of their minds to be 5-3 at this point and have achieved that record due to the fact that most of their points come off on or after turnovers their defense creates. Last week, for example is an indication on this teams strength as they only were able to produce a +1 TO Ratio against New Orleans(another horrible team), and the best the Bears could do was push against the spread. Expect S.F. to play the conservative, control game and this to be one of the worst, games in NFL history. Take the points.
Forecast: CHI Bears 6, SF 49ers 3
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SAN FRANCISCO +13
SPECIAL NOTE: THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW PLAYS THIS WEEK UNLESS THE LINES MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS I DO NOT SEE MUCH VALUE THIS WEEK.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 4 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 9 WINS 3 LOSSES (75%)
1* 12 WINS 20 LOSSES (37.5%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
WEEK #5: 3 WINS 3 LOSSES (+2.7 UNITS)
WEEK #6: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+4.9 UNITS)
WEEK #7: 2 WINS 5 LOSSES (-3.5 UNITS)
WEEK #8: 2 WINS 4 LOSSES (-1.3 UNITS)
WEEK #9: 2 WINS 3 LOSSES (-2.4 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
4* WILL POST AFTER IT STARTS
3* BUFFALO -2
2* TAMPA BAY +1
2* BALTIMORE +6.5
1* MINNESOTA +9.5
1* SAN FRANSICO +13
1* NEW YORK JETS +9.5
Opinion: HOUSTON +17.5
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KANSAS CITY (5 - 3) at BUFFALO (3 - 5)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Kansas City figures to be in a tough spot here coming off two divisional games, while the 3-5 Bills had last weekend off. Kansas City (5-3) is one game behind Denver for first place in the AFC West and lately have been getting it together, on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. Last Sunday's win was a memorable one, as KC risked it all on the game's final play and RB Larry Johnson's one-yard plunge gave the Chiefs a wild 27-23 win over the Oakland Raiders. Kansas City has the No. 7 ranked offense, with excellent balance And they take on a Buffalo run defense that is so far has been abysmal, second worst in the NFL allowing 150 yards rushing per game, 5 yards per carry. I’m not sure how much of a factor that mismatch will be this weekend as it is now confirmed that stud RB Priest Holmes is through for the year due to the concussion/neck/spine injury he suffered Oct. 30 vs. S.D. Larry Johnson (5.2 ypc) has been doing slightly better than Holmes (3.8 ypc) so far, but lets be honest, that stat is inflated as Johnson’s had the advantage of entering games fresh after Holmes had been working on opposing defenses. Holmes is also a more-experienced receiver and blocker. No matter how you want to look at it the loss of Holmes is a significant blow to the Chiefs. That injury however, might no be the most significant on this team. The Kansas City backfield is looking like an infimary ward as (starting corners Warfield and Surtain) each are questionable, and OT Willie Roaf is probably out. The loss of Roaf will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of now starting RB Larry Johnson. Buffalo, has the personal offensively take advantage of the injuries to the Chiefs backfield.
This game is also a situational nightmare for the Chiefs. The Bills are returning home off a bye week off two straight road losses, and the Chiefs are coming off an incredibly hard-fought division win vs. its AFC West archrival on the last play of the game! WOW. The Bills figure to be hungry with their season on the line knowing full well that this game could be their season. The Buffalo offensive players have rallied behind Holcomb and do not want to play the rest of the season with the horrible Loshmen, which is what is going to happen once a determination is made that the season is lost. Given the defensive injuries look for the Bills to literally pound the ball continuing to run Willis McGahee in the neighborhood of 30 + carries. This will certainly open up the passing lanes when K.C. makes the adjustment and hopefully they can muster a few nice bombs in the passing game. Also look for the veteran defense to also step up in this matchup as they feel embarrassed about their performance the last month and look to make amends. Expect an emotional Bills team playing with the season on the line against a worn-down Chiefs club. Hey what the fuck...I’ll through a pretty quirky trend to Buffalo is 10-0 ATS after playing New England. Hmmm they just played New England. Lets make it 11-0. Stampede!
Forecast: BUF Bills 28, KC Chiefs 17
PLAY 3* UNITS ON BUFFALO -2
WASHINGTON (5 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 3)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Both Washington and Tampa Bay sprinted out to stellar, but deceiving early records in this 2005 season. The hype has not matched ability in recent weeks, as both teams have encountered their fair share of adversity. Tampa Bay (5-3) got humiliated last weekend in their 34-14 loss to Carolina. So what the hell, lets go right back with the Bucs this week. The loss to Carolina was the third loss in four games, resulting in them falling out of a first-place tie with Carolina and Atlanta. Chris Simms completed 25 of 41 passes for 259 yards and two interceptions and throwing a 50-yard TD pass to Joey Galloway in the second quarter. For the second week in a row Simms had no run support and very little pass protection. After running for just 43 yards against the 49ers, the Bucs gained just 44 yards rushing against Carolina. Tampa Bay also turned the ball over four times. Meanwhile, the Redskins (5-3 SU, ATS) defeated the Eagles 17-10 Sunday behind an impressive showing by QB Mark Brunell, who completed 21 of 29 passes for 224 yards. Chris Cooley caught seven passes for a career-high 85 yards. RB Clinton Portis ran 21 times for 67 yards and a touchdown. The Washington defense shut down the Eagles running game holding them to 48 yards.
The line open at pick’em and has now moved to Washington -1 with 69% of the betting public placing their bets on the Skins. This of course is a great thing for us as now Tampa is a home dog which fits nicely into their best rolls. The trend is our friend as Tampa is 14-3-1 ATS at home either taking or laying 3 or less points and also 11-4 ATS in the second of BB home games. Meanwhile, the Skins off last Sunday night's war with the Eagles are 1-6 ATS away off a win over Philly and 1-5 ATS after hosting the Green Birds. Tampa will win, which means they cover or worse case push.
Forecast: WAS Redskins 10, TB Bucs 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TAMPA BAY +1
BALTIMORE (2 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 3)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
I have to admit I was shocked when I saw the number on this game. Think about this for a second, the back number (total opened at 33) yet Baltimore was instilled as a 7 point dog? Is the lines man serious? By the nature of this line we will assume that this will be a very low scoring game. Naturally, that hypothesis can be supported by data as we all know that the Jaguars win with defense. Indeed, in a league dominated by big offensive numbers, Jacksonville has played 58 straight games without scoring more than 30 points in a game. The Jaguars lack any resemblance of an offensive punch such as the one who handily beat the Ravens as a home dog vs. the Bengals last Saturday. On the season Jacksonville is checking in at 18 points per game and simply put this is just too many points for a team that possess with the better defense.
The latest injury report has Fred Taylor out for this game! With Taylor the offense is mediocre, without him, it's just plain terrible. Meanwhile, the Ravens will have QB Kyle Boller returning to the starting lineup as Antony Write sustained an injury last week. Boller had out since suffering a badly dislocated toe in the season opener, and he’ll wear an insert in his shoe to prevent re-injury. HC Brian Billick says he expects Boller to play well as Boller has done plenty of throwing as the scout team QB the last two weeks in practice. Expect this contest to be extremely competitive and probably down to a field goal. As such, lets take the generous points. Thanks Mr. Lines maker!
Forecast: BAL Ravens 10, JAC Jaguars 13
PLAY 2* UNITS ON BALTIMORE +6.5
MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
The Minnesota Vikings (3-5 SU, ATS) are coming off a huge win to force a tie for second place in the NFC North after beating the Lions 24-17. Because of a season-ending injury to Daunte Culpepper, Brad Johnson started and passed for 136 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Michael Bennett also ran for more than 100 yards for his first 100-yard game in nearly two years. Still, Minnesota is a miserable 0-4 SU/ATS on the road where they are getting beat by a 33-8 average! Meanwhile the Giants (6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) WR Plaxico Burress and TE Jeremy Shockey made acrobatic catches leading to a pair of touchdowns as the Giants got bye the Niners 24-6 Sunday. QB Eli Manning passed for 251 yards and a touchdown (but still only managed a 54% completion percentage), Brandon Jacobs rushed for two short fourth-quarter scores and the Giants' defense yielded just 138 total yards. Burress had five catches for 79 yards in the third straight victory for the Giants.
There is plenty of motivation for the Vikings to win this weekend and I’m just not sure how motivated the football Giants will be. The Vikings are just two games behind Chicago and lots of guys on this team are currently fighting for their jobs. They also have revenge for three straight home losses to New York. We all know the Minnesota defense is terrible allowing 33.3 points per game on the road but the Giants have not been stalwarts themselves (341.8 yards allowed per game). Brad Johnson was able to move the ball effectively last week before going into ball-control mode in the second half versus Detroit and he should reduce the amount of turnovers that an injured Daunte Culpepper was giving away each Sunday. Factor in the fact that the Giants have failed to cover six straight times as chalk of -7 or more points and with the football Giants looking ahead to a showdown with the Eagles, look for Minnesota to move to 8-2 ATS as a November dog.
Forecast: MIN Vikings 24, NY Football Giants 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MINNESOTA +9.5
SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 6) at CHICAGO (5 - 3)
Week 10 Sunday, 11/13/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Week in and week out I’m always going back to the absolute worst team in the NFL...or is it that the perception of the public? Hmmmm...well the reason is because there is always so much value in their line. Last week, I selected The Niners (2-6 Su, 3-5 ATS) as my top 2* unit selection and for anybody who watched that game knows that they played the Giants evenly until the fourth quarter before losing 24-6 which is a very misleading final score. Nevertheless, San Francisco mustered just 138 total yards for the game. Cody Pickett (12-of-21 for 102 yards), the 49ers' fourth starting quarterback in five games, made few mistakes in his first start. But he couldn't spark anything behind San Francisco's horrible offensive line, which committed several penalties and rarely allowed Pickett a moment's peace. The 49ers are 0-3 SU/ATS on the road. San Fran's defense is last in the NFL allowing 417 yards per game, while the offense is also dead last! The 49ers know that Chicago likes to run the football, so they may try the same trick they did against the Bucs, stack the line with 7-8 men to take away the run. The Bears (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) managed a 20-17 win over the Saints Sunday as Adrian Peterson and Cedric Benson combined for 137 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries and Kyle Orton kept mistakes to a minimum. Orton was 12-of-26 for 137 yards and a touchdown and was intercepted twice.
Ok, so when we place out bet this Sunday were going to the window and getting a solid 13 points. This is a good thing as before kickoff we have a nice 13 point lead, and we know that the Bears with a rookie at QB, inexperienced running backs carrying the rushing and blocking load (Thomas Jones will not be 100% if he plays) will struggle to muster any offense against this underrated stop unit. Here are the guys who will have to beat us...RB Cedric Benson, a rookie, and Adrian Peterson. Inexperienced running backs are very good at a couple of things, fumbling, and not picking up blitzes. The 49ers have a nasty, physical, underrated, blitz-happy defense that can force the issue. The Bears must play in safe mode with unsafe players. They also just released fullback Marc Edwards a starter in five of eight games this season creating more instability in the backfield. The Bears right tackle Fred Miller is out. Also, left guard Ruben Brown and safety Todd Johnson are questionable. The Bears have had to play slightly out of their minds to be 5-3 at this point and have achieved that record due to the fact that most of their points come off on or after turnovers their defense creates. Last week, for example is an indication on this teams strength as they only were able to produce a +1 TO Ratio against New Orleans(another horrible team), and the best the Bears could do was push against the spread. Expect S.F. to play the conservative, control game and this to be one of the worst, games in NFL history. Take the points.
Forecast: CHI Bears 6, SF 49ers 3
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SAN FRANCISCO +13
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It's always noon somewhere! 
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
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