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Ok.....I see that despite my attempts to explain to youse people why it is mathmatically unsoud to buy a 1/2 point, that I'm not getting through!!! 
Even Kaptain, someone whose handicapping skills I have great respect for, insists on using the "Well, it saved me many times" argument.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrghhhhhhhh h!!!!!!
Look, I'm going to give you an example of exactly WHY it is the wrong thing to do, then I'll move on to the next lesson , lol....:christmas
Let's say I've got a big jar here with 100 marble in it, 55 white, and 45 black. I offer you to stick your hand in the jar without looking and take out ONE marble. You can bet me any amount of money you want....if you pull a white marble, you win.....a black one, I win. The payoff is even money. I hope there is NOBODY reading this that doesn't appreciate that you would be onto a GREAT situation....a 55% chance of winning, with an even money payoff. Who wouldn't love THAT.
But wait, over here I have another jar, and this one has 100 marbles, but 55 are black and only 45 are white. But it's a much prettier jar....all covered in flashy, shiny decorations. You say....well.....I like the second jar better....it makes me feel good...look how much nicer it is that the first jar...I'll draw the marble out of jar #2 instead of the first one.
Now again.....nobody could possibly believe that this would be an intelligent choice...or that you would do anything other than go broke if you repeated this silly mistake enough times. Winning 45 out of 100 will kill your bankroll off REAL fast.
Now....what I've been trying to tell you is this: WHEN YOU BUY A 1/2 POINT AND ARE CHARGED -120, YOU HAVE VOLUNTARILY DECIDED TO STICK YOUR PAW INTO THE SECOND JAR!!. You have the worst of it, and the bookie has 55 marbles in his favor to your 45.
And the fact that you may HAPPEN to pull out a white one on this pull, or the next one...or on ANY pull...means exactly 2/3 of nothing!!! You are making a bonehead gamble letting the bookie give you the jar with 55 black marbles, and if you happen to pull out the white one you have STILL made a bonehead play. I had a guy at a blackjack table double down on a *hard 12*..a ten and a two. Before I could even recover my senses he drew an 8 and won. He wouldn't listen to ANYONE when we tried to tell him that he was giving money away by doing that....."I won the hand, so how can you tell me it was the wrong thing to do?". Aaaaaarrrrrhhhggghhhh
I know that there are some great handicappers here who make this mistake...but being a great handicapper doesn't mean that you must be an expert on applied math and statistics. So if you don't believe me, get yourself a database of the last 20 years NFL games, and test it yourself to see what happens when you pay that extra juice to buy 1/2 point. You'll quickly see that you're sticking your hand into a jar designed for suckers. Do you think the bookie gives you those OH-so convenient little drop-down boxes that let you buy points because it's a good deal for you?
Exactly.
When I have a bit of time....the next lesson: How trends can kill your bankroll. :uzi:
Even Kaptain, someone whose handicapping skills I have great respect for, insists on using the "Well, it saved me many times" argument.Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrghhhhhhhh h!!!!!!
Look, I'm going to give you an example of exactly WHY it is the wrong thing to do, then I'll move on to the next lesson , lol....:christmas
Let's say I've got a big jar here with 100 marble in it, 55 white, and 45 black. I offer you to stick your hand in the jar without looking and take out ONE marble. You can bet me any amount of money you want....if you pull a white marble, you win.....a black one, I win. The payoff is even money. I hope there is NOBODY reading this that doesn't appreciate that you would be onto a GREAT situation....a 55% chance of winning, with an even money payoff. Who wouldn't love THAT.
But wait, over here I have another jar, and this one has 100 marbles, but 55 are black and only 45 are white. But it's a much prettier jar....all covered in flashy, shiny decorations. You say....well.....I like the second jar better....it makes me feel good...look how much nicer it is that the first jar...I'll draw the marble out of jar #2 instead of the first one.
Now again.....nobody could possibly believe that this would be an intelligent choice...or that you would do anything other than go broke if you repeated this silly mistake enough times. Winning 45 out of 100 will kill your bankroll off REAL fast.
Now....what I've been trying to tell you is this: WHEN YOU BUY A 1/2 POINT AND ARE CHARGED -120, YOU HAVE VOLUNTARILY DECIDED TO STICK YOUR PAW INTO THE SECOND JAR!!. You have the worst of it, and the bookie has 55 marbles in his favor to your 45.
And the fact that you may HAPPEN to pull out a white one on this pull, or the next one...or on ANY pull...means exactly 2/3 of nothing!!! You are making a bonehead gamble letting the bookie give you the jar with 55 black marbles, and if you happen to pull out the white one you have STILL made a bonehead play. I had a guy at a blackjack table double down on a *hard 12*..a ten and a two. Before I could even recover my senses he drew an 8 and won. He wouldn't listen to ANYONE when we tried to tell him that he was giving money away by doing that....."I won the hand, so how can you tell me it was the wrong thing to do?". Aaaaaarrrrrhhhggghhhh
I know that there are some great handicappers here who make this mistake...but being a great handicapper doesn't mean that you must be an expert on applied math and statistics. So if you don't believe me, get yourself a database of the last 20 years NFL games, and test it yourself to see what happens when you pay that extra juice to buy 1/2 point. You'll quickly see that you're sticking your hand into a jar designed for suckers. Do you think the bookie gives you those OH-so convenient little drop-down boxes that let you buy points because it's a good deal for you?
Exactly.
When I have a bit of time....the next lesson: How trends can kill your bankroll. :uzi:
Got any picks to go with your lessons?
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