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**Blackbeard** · 09-07-2005, 11:39 PM

College football news staff picks

http://www.collegefootballnews.com/2...xpertPicks.htm

**Blackbeard** · 09-08-2005, 12:00 AM

MSNBC Predicitons 101/ John Tamanaha

Last week: 7-3 overall, 4-6 against spread

SAT: KANSAS STATE at MARSHALL
Kansas State coach Bill Snyder probably jumped out of his skin to schedule Florida International with its newly anointed Division I-A status, but he didn’t expect to hold just a 13-7 lead at halftime. His typical non-conference rout over a patsy never materialized as his club turned over the football four times and had a punt blocked on its way to a less-than-impressive 35-21 victory at home.

The bright spot was junior Thomas Clayton rushing for 177 yards and two touchdowns on just 17 carries, filling the shoes of the departed Darren Sproles. But, that was versus a team that began competing in football in 2002.

We’ll see how Clayton and the Wildcats do when they step up in class and travel to Huntington, where the locals will be pumped up for “Bobby Pruett Day” as Marshall honors its all-time winningest coach, who retired this past spring.

The Thundering Herd began the Mark Snyder era with a 36-24 victory over Division I-AA William & Mary on Sept. 1. Marshall played two QBs, Jimmy Skinner and Bernie Morris, who combined to complete 26-of-40 for 313 yards and three touchdowns. However, William & Mary led, 24-23, late in the third quarter.

In the only previous meeting between these two, Marshall went to Manhattan in 2003, and beat the then-No. 6 Wildcats, 27-20. That one came down to a fourth-down play at the 6-yard line as time expired. Forty-two current K-State players remember that heartbreaker all too well and will be out for revenge.

Opening point spread: Kansas State by 9

Pick: Kansas State 31-19
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NO. 20 NOTRE DAME at NO. 3 MICHIGAN
The Charlie Weis era got off to a bang, beating then-No. 23 Pittsburgh, 42-21. For Irish veterans, scoring 42 points was as foreign to them as second place is to Lance Armstrong. So here they are, believing in themselves once again. And who’s to say that notching back-to-back victories on the road is out of the question? Last year, Notre Dame stunned Michigan 28-20 in South Bend.

Irish QB Brady Quinn looked comfortable versus the Panthers in the new offense, completing 18-of-27 for 227 yards and two touchdowns, and running back Darius Walker rushed for 100 yards and scored twice.

Michigan also got off to a good start last week, dispatching Northern Illinois in routine fashion, 33-17. But the Wolverines defense will have to tighten up versus Notre Dame, after allowing the Huskies to rush for 211 yards and pass for 200.

On offense, Michigan is set with its pair of super sophomores, QB Chad Henne and TB Mike Hart. It’s true that the Henne relied heavily on WR Braylon Edwards last season, but his fill-in Steve Breaston paired with Jason Avant creates a formidable pass-catching duo.

The last time the Fighting Irish rode into Ann Arbor, they stumbled out after a 38-0 whipping. It won’t be nearly as bad this time, but wins for Weis over teams like this will have to wait awhile.

Opening point spread: Michigan by 7

Pick: Michigan 30-27
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NO. 25 CLEMSON at MARYLAND
Things fell apart for “The Fridge” last season as Ralph Freidgen's once-potent offense became impotent, spending more time turning the ball over than it did crossing the goal line. Aside from a good performance in last season’s upset of Florida State, quarterback Joel Statham had a miserable year and was eventually replaced by Sam Hollenbach, who produced some late-game heroics last Saturday to beat Navy, 23-20.

Led by a linebacker corps that returns all three starters, Friedgen has much less to worry about on the defensive side. Maryland held 12 of its last 13 opponent to 22 points or less.

With last week’s 25-24 upset victory over Texas A&M already in the bank, Tommy Bowden could put his recent reputation for slow starts to rest if he can get past Maryland on the road. The Tigers edged the Aggies without QB Charlie Whitehurst, who got his bell rung early in the fourth quarter, relying on freshman RB James Davis (101 yards rushing) and kicker Jad Dean (six field goals, including the game winner with two seconds left).

Whitehurst should be fine for Saturday’s game and that means trouble for Maryland, which simply won’t be able to score the meager 21 points needed to win this game.

Opening point spread: Maryland by 2

Pick: Clemson 20-17
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NO. 8 IOWA at IOWA STATE
Iowa State, last season’s surprise co-champions of the Big 12 North, has a shot to repeat especially since the Cyclones did it in 2004 with such a young team (87 percent of their points scored came from freshmen or sophomores). Quarterback Bret Meyer, who had an impressive showing last year as a frosh, opened up his sophomore campaign by completing 30-of-41 for 314 yards and a score in a 32-21 victory over Division I-AA Illinois State. It wasn’t exactly a landmark victory, but the offense looks like it will be in good hands.

If the Cyclones can get some consistent field goal kicking (they were hamstrung in three games last year due to missed three-pointers), it could be a special season. Having a healthy Tony Yelk back at kicker this year could be the best news in Ames.

In the opener, the Hawkeyes scored 28 points in the first quarter and rolled over Ball State (sans 13 players under investigation for possible NCAA violations) 56-0 in what was the most decisive victory of the Kirk Ferentz era. Iowa quarterbacks attempted 20 passes and only one of them hit the ground. It was that kind of day.

In last season’s match-up, Iowa turned back Iowa State’s upset bid 17-10 thanks in part to … you guessed it … three missed field goals by the Cyclones. They’ll be less misfires this time, but a similar result.

Opening point spread: Iowa by 9

Pick: Iowa 20-13
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NO. 16 CALIFORNIA at WASHINGTON
Replacing Aaron Rodgers was going to be a tough challenge for Golden Bears coach Jeff Tedford, but he didn’t know it was going to be this tough. By the time the final seconds mercifully ticked off the clock in California’s 41-3 victory over hapless Sacramento State last Saturday, Tedford had a former fullback taking the snaps from center. Prior to that, Tedford’s starting quarterback, Nate Longshore, was taken off the field with a broken leg and his backup, Joe Ayoob was absolutely clueless while tossing 10 consecutive incompletions. Talk about a season getting short-circuited before it even really began.

However, you can’t count out the Bears just yet. Tedford is one of the best QB tutors around and he’ll have some time to get things squared away. At least he still has RB Marshawn Lynch to lean on to move the football and the Washington Huskies to provide little resistance on Saturday in Seattle.

Washington got its Tyrone Willingham era off to an ignominious start last week, losing to Air Force, 20-17. The Huskies got good performances out of QB Isaiah Stanback (19-of-27 for 242 yards and a touchdown) and TB Louis Rankin (112 yards on 23 carries), but gave up 13 points to the Falcons in the fourth quarter.

One thing that the Huskies have going for them is that Willingham has had great success versus the Golden Bears in the past, having never lost to Cal in his seven seasons at the helm of Stanford. But, there is a first time for everything.

Opening point spread: California by 7.5

Pick: California 27-16
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HAWAII at MICHIGAN STATE
As if getting routed by USC 63-17 wasn’t bad enough, the Warriors got a double-dose of bad news from the training room afterwards as safety Leonard Peters (the senior leader of the team) and slot receiver Jason Ferguson are likely to miss the rest of the season due to knee injuries suffered in the game against the top-ranked Trojans.

June Jones is trying to fill the shoes of Timmy Chang with not one, but two quarterbacks. Tyler Graunke and Colt Brennan alternated and combined to go 33-of-49 for 377 yards versus USC’s vaunted defense, which raised a few eyebrows.

The Warriors, however, have no shot at matching the production of Spartan QB Drew Stanton, who was 22-of-29 for 297 yards and two touchdowns (he also rushed for 60 yards on 10 carries) in a season-opening 49-14 smashing of Kent State.

Michigan State will look to mix that momentum with the bad blood it still has over last season’s 41-38 loss at Hawaii in which the Spartans were called for 16 penalties (the Warriors got flagged just five times). Adding to the incentive, this week got off to an ugly start as Jones and Michigan State boss John L. Smith accused each other of withholding game tapes. There will be no film exchange prior to this contest and no pleasantries during it.

Opening point spread: Michigan State by 32.5

Pick: Michigan State 49-13
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SOUTH CAROLINA at NO. 9 GEORGIA
In his Gamecock debut, Steve Spurrier broke from the gate well, stumbled down the stretch, but eventually held on to beat Central Florida 24-15. All in all, he’ll take it, especially since sophomore quarterback Blake Mitchell did well, completing 18-of-23 for 330 yards and three scores. That is certainly something to build on. But will it be enough to stay with the Bulldogs? Certainly not.

Georgia could not have asked for a better start to the 2005 season. With Boise State visiting Athens and several predicting a big upset (yours truly included), the Bulldogs wasted no time in showing the upstart Broncos who is boss.

After playing behind record-setter David Greene for three years, quarterback D.J. Shockley was impressive in his debut as a starter, completing 16-of-24 for 289 yards and five touchdowns. He also ran five times for 85 yards and a score.

Shockley will be more than a handful for the Gamecocks, but Spurrier has some weapons of his own to keep within shouting distance.
Opening point spread: Georgia by 16

Pick: Georgia 31-20
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SOUTHERN MISS at ALABAMA
Due to the hospitality of the University of Memphis, the Southern Miss team was able to practice last Friday, the team’s first session since Hurricane Katrina. The Golden Eagles will practice there until heading for Bryant-Denny Stadium where they will play what is now their season opener (their game versus Tulane on Sept. 2 was pushed back to Nov. 26).

Quarterback Brodie Croyle is healthy and back for the Crimson Tide and so is nearly the entire defensive unit that was among the nation’s best last season, both of which bode well for coach Mike Shula, who can now breathe a little easier as sanctions and injuries are now hopefully behind him.

In the 26-7 season-opening victory over Middle Tennessee, Croyle was 16-of-24 for 210 yards and a touchdown. With him back in the saddle, the Tide can roll once again. After he injured his knee in the third game of the 2004 season, the offense became rudderless. The effort to keep him safe and sound is of the highest priority and could be a problem as the Alabama offensive front is extremely inexperienced.

Thankfully for the Tide, Southern Miss had problems with their front seven on defense last season and has had to replace four of those players. Croyle should have time to survey the field and RB Kenneth Darby will be able to roam. The Golden Eagles have had a tough time in this series and it doesn’t look to get any better.

Opening point spread: Alabama by 12

Pick: Alabama 30-16
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NO. 2 TEXAS at NO. 4 OHIO STATE
Heading into this season empowered by their thrilling victory over Michigan in the Rose Bowl, the Longhorns now get to take their shot at another one of the Big 10’s powerhouses as they face Ohio State for the first time in school history.

In what has become their annual shellacking of an overmatched opponent in the season opener, Texas pounded a Louisiana Lafayette team that had other things on its mind, 60-3. Quarterback Vince Young had an impressive season debut passing for three scores and running for another. More importantly, however, the Longhorns were boosted by freshman Jamaal Charles, who backs up starting running back Selvin Young and ran for 135 yards to further ease concerns over replacing Cedric Benson.

The Buckeyes, with their 19 returning starters, had a walkover in their opener as well, routing Miami of Ohio 34-14. The obligatory Ted Ginn Jr. highlight was a 42-yard touchdown reception, but no one really noticed as this was just an appetizer for Saturday night’s main course.

Ohio State has won 22 of its last 23 games at the Horseshoe in Columbus and has won 36 consecutive home games versus non-conference foes. Texas meanwhile has won 21 of its last 22 road games. Something’s got to give here and the Longhorns kicking game (three missed extra points in the opener) might be it.

Opening point spread: Even

Pick: Ohio State 21-20
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NO. 15 ARIZONA STATE at NO. 5 LSU
With its athletic facilities currently serving crucial roles in providing assistance to those affected by Hurricane Katrina, LSU moved this game from Tiger Stadium to Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.

LSU’s home game versus Arizona State was to be the team’s second, but the scheduled opener versus North Texas was postponed due to the destruction in the Gulf Coast area.

LSU’s Les Miles era will begin under extremely unusual circumstances — the Tigers are still technically the home team — but the facts of football will come out when the teams take the field. The Tigers have 17 returning starters back and what it takes to challenge for the SEC and national titles.

The Sun Devils, on the other hand, are hoping to be in the ***** of the race to be the runner-up in the Pac-10. With Sam Keller at the controls, optimistic ASU fans are having flashbacks to the Jake Plummer glory years. In facing the

Tigers defense, Keller will need all the help he can get and find some in the form of an offensive line that returns intact and a veteran group of receivers led by All-America candidate Derek Hagan.

The question is can the Sun Devils contain the Tigers offense, which returns with all its weapons ready to fire away? Nope. But it will get them prepared for their showdown with USC on Oct. 1.

Opening point spread: Arizona State by 1.5

Pick: LSU 28-24

**Blackbeard** · 09-08-2005, 12:06 AM

Sagarin Ratings NFL & NCAA

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl05.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt05.htm

**thaikarate1** · 09-08-2005, 01:37 AM

Thanks for the info BB.

**Blackbeard** · 09-08-2005, 06:39 AM

Thanks TK, the rest should be up in the next 2 days + NFL and the fades.

**Blackbeard** · 09-08-2005, 04:32 PM

NY Post NCAA staff predictions

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Attached Files

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**Spark** · 09-08-2005, 04:37 PM

Nice beard ... Keep em coming buddy .. Thanks

**Blackbeard** · 09-08-2005, 05:11 PM

USA Today/Eric Smith

No. 2 Texas at No. 7 Ohio State, 8 p.m. ET

Ohio State has never lost a night game at Ohio Stadium and the atmosphere will be more raucous than the places Texas has played. The linebacking trio of A.J. Hawk, Anthony Schlegel and Bobby Carpenter should be enough to keep Vince Young in check. Whether it is Justin Zwick or Troy Smith behind center, the Buckeyes will put the Longhorns a step behind in the national title race. Ohio State 21, Texas 17.

No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 23 Notre Dame, noon

Last week, I suggested it would take awhile for the Irish to pick up Charlie Weis' schemes. Awhile turned out to be one series. Michigan's defense was shaky against Northern Illinois, which portends a high-scoring affair in Ann Arbor and maybe the second big win of the Weis era. Michigan 31, Notre Dame 30.

No. 5 LSU at No. 15 Arizona State, 8:45 p.m.

Katrina has forced the game to be moved to Tempe and enhances the urgency of the Tigers and new coach Les Miles, who would have gotten a huge lift from the home crowd. The decisive position should be quarterback. Sun Devils starter Sam Keller appears comfortable as the heir to Andrew Walter's shoes. LSU is not so settled with both JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flynn expected to see time. One has to come through for the Tigers. LSU 26, Arizona State 24.

No. 6 Virginia Tech at Duke, noon

Marcus Vick dipped his toe back into the world of college football and displayed some of the athletic ability that reminds people of his heralded brother. The win at N.C. State has the Hokies in great shape to be unbeaten until Miami comes to Blacksburg in November. Virginia Tech 37, Duke 14.

No. 8 Iowa at Iowa State, 3:30 p.m.

Lots of "experts" are picking Iowa State to contend in the Big 12 North. They'll be reassessing their opinion after the Hawkeyes come to Ames and extend their series win streak to three games. Iowa 30, Iowa State 19.

No. 9 Georgia vs. South Carolina, 5:30 p.m.

For one week, Gamecock fans got to enjoy the first game in the tenure of Steve Spurrier. It's back to reality Saturday against the Bulldogs, who put together one of the most impressive opening performances in the country. Georgia 35, South Carolina 10.

No. 10 Florida vs. Louisiana Tech, 6 p.m.

Want to know why Urban Meyer will have Florida back at the top of college football? His Gators cruised past Wyoming and Chris Leak only missed on eight of 32 passes. But he was dissatisfied and wants to see more this week. The Bulldogs have to be excited by that news. Florida 42, Louisiana Tech 16.

No. 11 Florida State vs. The Citadel, 6:45 p.m.

Bobby Bowden rightfully isn't satisfied with his team's offensive performance against Miami. Drew Weatherford and Xavier Lee must get it together this week with a dangerous game at Boston College on deck. Florida State 50, The Citadel 7.

No. 13 Purdue vs. Akron, 1 p.m.

Drinking a boilermaker may provide the same aftereffects on the Zips as heading to West Lafayette and facing the hard-hitting Purdue defense. Purdue 45, Akron 9.

No. 16 Oklahoma vs. Tulsa, 12:30 p.m.

Taking a page from the same playbook as former boss Steve Spurrier, Bob Stoops has promoted freshman quarterback Rhett Bomar and demoted junior Paul Thompson. Problem is, the Sooners can't duplicate Spurrier's offensive success from Florida. Oklahoma 30, Tulsa 6.

No. 17 California at Washington, 3:30 p.m.

After starter Nate Longshore went down against Sacramento State, Joe Ayoob stepped in behind center for California and promptly went 0-for-10 and was pulled from the game. Ayoob will start this week and Washington will be eager to give him a rude welcome to the Pac-10 after their last-second loss to Air Force. California 21, Washington 17.

No. 18 Boston College vs. Army, 12:30 p.m.

The only mystery is whether Naval Academy graduate Tom O'Brien still remembers his rivalry with Army or relaxes his team with Florida State on deck. Boston College 40, Army 14.

No. 19 Texas Tech vs. Florida International, 7 p.m.

Another year, another new quarterback for Texas Tech. The results will stay the same for the high-powered Red Raiders, who are now led by Cody Hodges. Texas Tech 45, Florida International 12.

No. 21 Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina, 3:30 p.m.

Yellow Jackets and their fans are buzzing after the upset at Auburn. Don't pencil them in as ACC contenders just yet. The Tar Heels have all the ingredients to return to a bowl game — except a quarterback. Georgia Tech 24, North Carolina 14.

No. 22 Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi, 7:45 p.m.

In almost a cruel joke, Southern Mississippi has to face a team named the Crimson Tide in its opener. A Golden Eagles upset in Alabama would be one of the heartwarming stories of the season. Alabama 30, Southern Mississippi 16.

No. 24 Fresno State vs. Weber State, 10 p.m.

Our first look at the Bulldogs, who are now the highest-ranked team in a non-BCS league. They'll be able to work out some kinks before traveling to Oregon next week. Fresno State 40, Weber State 10.

No. 25 Auburn vs. Mississippi State, 12:30 p.m.

After throwing four interceptions in his first start, Tigers quarterback Brandon Cox now gets his initial taste of the SEC. Auburn must play well to gain some confidence or Tommy Tuberville's team could go downhill quickly. Auburn 28, Mississippi State 14.

Last week's record: 16-4 (11-8)

**Blackbeard** · 09-08-2005, 05:13 PM

Miami herald/Jeff Shain

• Ohio State 20, Texas 17: What timing for the first meeting between these two storied programs -- winner gets No. 2 in the polls, early Heisman statement for Vince Young or Ted Ginn Jr. Young will be severely tested by OSU's back seven, where LBs A.J. Hawk and Bobby Carpenter are rangy and the CBs are good enough to be left on an island. If Longhorns don't find someone to step up at receiver, Buckeyes can load up against the run and dare Young to beat them through the air. OSU has QB Troy Smith back from suspension, leaving Texas D to prepare for two different styles. (Favorite: OSU by 1.)

• Michigan 28, Notre Dame 24: Was that Brady Quinn or Tom Brady taking snaps for the Irish vs. Pitt? Notre Dame's offensive outburst wasn't expected for at least a month. Pass defense gets tested this week by Michigan WRs Jason Avant and Steve Breaston. A tough day for ND's smallish corners. (Favorite: Michigan by 7.)

• Arizona St. 30, LSU 26: Tough to gauge Bayou Bengals, making their debut under Les Miles after a disjointed week working around Katrina relief. And the game now has been moved to the desert. It might just be too much to ask against ASU's aerial fireworks that stayed red-hot with new QB Sam Keller. (Favorite: LSU by 1.)

• Florida 41, La. Tech 10: Bulldogs have lost all three encounters against SEC teams over past two seasons, by a combined score of 143-34. Don't expect it to be much different at The Swamp, especially now that Gators have game action under Urban Meyer's system. This is Tech's season opener. (Favorite: UF by 29.)

• Florida St. 33, The Citadel 7: Seminoles face their first Division I-AA foe since 1991, and there's no better time for QBs Drew Weatherford and Xavier Lee to build some confidence for the ACC wars. Pity Citadel's O-line, which had to shudder upon seeing FSU's nine-sack rampage. (Favorite: No line.)

• Fla. Atlantic 24, Oklahoma State 22 (tonight): Yes, it's a reach pick. But the Cowboys might be ripe for the picking, based on last week's 15-10 home win against I-AA Montana State. OSU trailed at halftime and was just 3 for 12 on third downs. Now that young team must travel to Dolphins Stadium. Hmmmm. (Favorite: OSU by 14 ½.)

• Last week: 3-3. Gravy train ran out on the UM-FSU run, but biggest surprise was Quinn sponging up Charlie Weis' playbook. Or Trev Alberts giving up camera time.

• Against spread: 3-3.

**griffey_mojo** · 09-08-2005, 05:42 PM

Thanks BB! Appreciate the time and effort!

**moondog22** · 09-08-2005, 05:47 PM

Thanks Blackbeard for the info

**Blackbeard** · 09-08-2005, 06:46 PM

Thanks guys, much appreciated!!!!

Larry O or Wayne, please post espn insider plays if you have them.

Also if anyone from around the country has staff picks from their local paper, please post a scan if you have a scanner, this will help alot

**larryonion** · 09-08-2005, 07:04 PM

ESPN Insider NCAA Picks Week 2

Thursday
Florida Atlantic +14 over Oklahoma State: Hard to believe that Howard Schnellenberger has rebuilt FAU so fast after losing most of last year's top players. Last week -- against an excellent Kansas defense and on hostile turf -- Schnellenberger unveiled the passing talents of Danny Embick, who was 20-for-28 for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Kansas had to come from behind in the second half to win it.
Oklahoma State is retooling with new coach Mike Gundy, who has installed a spread offense. That seems like trying to put a square peg in a round hole as far as QB Donovan Woods goes. Woods always seemed most comfortable sprinting out and running. The Cowboys struggled to beat Montana State, 15-10, last week and might be susceptible to the pass. Three of four defensive backs are gone, and a projected starter died in a car crash. Plus, two more DBs were kicked off the team. Depth and experience are out the window.

The pick: Florida Atlantic. Last week, we said Schnellenberger was good but not this good. Maybe he is. This has the same feel as last year's Troy home upset of Missouri. (Best bet).

Saturday
Notre Dame +7 over Michigan: Charlie Weis is starting to look and sound more like Bill Parcells every day. The thrashing his team gave Pitt was the result of a coaching mismatch, which Weis might have again this week. The Irish will control the ball and get their points. The only question is whether they can slow down Michigan's attack enough to win. We think they can. Michigan gave up a lot of yards and points last year. This year's team looks similar. Last week, Michigan allowed Northern Illinois to run up and down the field. Lloyd Carr usually plays things close to the vest, which might be enough to let Notre Dame win through the back door.
The pick: Notre Dame in a high-scoring affair.

Purdue -35 over Akron: Joe Tiller has one of the most explosive teams in the country at Purdue, and he likes to pile on the little guys when he can. Last year, Akron went 6-5 but lost 48-10 to Penn State. Those 48 points were more than Penn State seemed to score the rest of the year. The Zips also allowed 49 at Northern Illinois and 51 at Virginia. Seven of their defensive starters are back, which is both the good and the bad news, depending how you look at it, if you're a Zip fan.

With QB Charlie Frye gone to the pros, the Zips will have trouble scoring consistently, especially at Purdue, which has its entire defensive starting team back. The Boilermakers also are loaded at wide receiver and should have a solid running game again. Brandon Kirsch replaces Kyle Orton at quarterback, and he is expected to be just as good but more mobile.

The pick: Purdue. The Boilermakers kicked off last year with thrashings of Syracuse (51-0) and Ball State (59-7). Don't expect them to let up here. (Best bet).

Northwestern -2½ over Northern Illinois: The Huskies played well at Michigan in their opener last week, but they made the kind of mistakes you can't make and expect to stay close in a game like that. Michigan was a team you could run on, which is NIU's strength with RB Garrett Wolfe. But Northwestern's strength is its defensive line and its ability to stop power running teams.

Wildcats QB Brett Basanez threw for more than 350 yards against Ohio last week and looked in midseason form. This should be one of the best passing teams in the Big Ten this year.

The pick: Northwestern (Best bet).

Minnesota -13½ over Colorado State: Last year, Colorado State was horrible against the run. Most of that defense is back, which is not necessarily good news facing a power attack such as Minnesota's. The Golden Gophers won the 2004 game 34-16 at Colorado State and should handle the Rams easily at home, especially after CSU's heartbreaking loss to in-state rival Colorado.

The pick: Minnesota.

Missouri -10 over New Mexico: Missouri has far too many athletes to let New Mexico get close in this one, especially after being embarrassed by Troy in a September game last year. And Gary Pinkel knows his job is on the line. Pinkel converted to a spread attack this year to take full advantage of Brad Smith's running and throwing ability. In last week's opener, Smith accounted for 317 yards passing and three touchdowns, plus 95 yards running the ball. New Mexico was lucky to beat UNLV despite a questionable defense and a lackluster running game.

The pick: Missouri.

Michigan State -32 over Hawaii: Hard to believe this is the same Michigan State team that lost at Hawaii 41-38 in December. But the Warriors were at home for that one and it was Timmy Chang's going-away party. We all know by now that Hawaii takes on a completely different personality playing on the road. The Warriors played only four road games last year, but gave up 41, 51, 69 and 70 points in those games. They also had about the worst defense in the country against the run, and Michigan State certainly can pour it on.

Last week, the Spartans amassed 700 yards against Kent State, one of the best defensive teams in the MAC. Coach John L. Smith is certain to want to pay back June Jones for that end-of-season loss.

The pick: Michigan State makes it look as easy as USC did.

Wake Forest +6½ over Nebraska: The Nebraska horror show is far from over. Beating Maine 25-7 at home has to be a low light for the Cornhuskers under Bill Callahan. The defense looks fine, but the offense continues to struggle. Against I-AA Maine, new QB Zac Taylor went 15-of-36 for 192 yards, with two interceptions. Things haven't changed much. Wake Forest lost a tough one to Vanderbilt in the opener, but don't underrate Vandy, which played a tough SEC schedule last year. Wake coach Jim Grobe knows how to get a team ready for a big game, and the Wake running game is one of the best in the ACC.

The pick: Wake Forest can win this outright if Nebraska keeps stumbling on offense.

Alabama -12 over Southern Miss: 'Bama has nine starters back from the nation's second-best defense, along with last year's quarterback, Brodie Croyle, who missed the last half of the season. Croyle looked like he hasn't missed a beat, completing 16-of-24 last week against Middle Tennessee State. Alabama's strength offensively is its running game, which works well against Southern Miss' inexperienced front seven. And having last week's scheduled Tulane game postponed doesn't help Southern Miss.

The pick: Alabama. Last year, the Tide won this game 27-3; don't see any reason it should be closer this time.

Ohio State -1 (and under 46½) vs. Texas: This game looks likely to be low-scoring. Ohio State has a great defense and an offense to go up against Texas' very good defense. Defense figures to dominate all night long. This should be similar to the 10-7 battle Florida State won against Miami.

Texas looks as though it has a few problems on special teams, judging by its opener. The Longhorns' kicking team couldn't kick to their opponents' end zone; their punting was soft; and they missed several field goals and three extra points. That kind of special teams play will get you beat in a game like this.

The pick: Ohio State. Playing the Buckeyes at night in Columbus is no easy task.

The pick: Under 46½. Will be surprised if this game gets into the mid-20s. (Best bet).

Texas Tech -34 over Florida International: Texas Tech is a very good team, and FIU is not. To say the least. Tech hung 70 points on the board in each of its first two home games last year. Those were against TCU and Nebraska. What will it do against one of the worst passing defenses in the country? Triple digits? And to add salt to the wound, the Red Raiders' defense appears to be even better than last year's edition. Their offense is in good hands with senior QB Cody Hodges and a solid group of receivers and running backs.

The pick: Texas Tech.

Passing thoughts
LSU, which didn't play its opener because of Hurricane Katrina, is trying to get used to a new coach's system and now must travel 2,000 miles unexpectedly as the Arizona State game has been moved to Tempe. Seems too big a task to win this one against the well-prepared Sun Devils. ... Maryland had its hands full with a Navy team that returned only four starters. How is it going to cope with Clemson if the Tigers bring anywhere near the intensity they had in the opener? ... Iowa State played Iowa much tougher than expected last year at Iowa. You can expect the Hawkeyes to have their hands full again. ... Cal's offense should eat up Washington's defense, but Cal has a quarterback problem. Its first-team quarterback is now out for the year, and its second-team passer, Joseph Ayoob, went 0-for-10 last week against Sacramento State. ... Last week, double-digit home dogs (DDHD), which had a phenomenal run last year, went 1-1. This week, Marshall, Duke and SMU are DDHDs. Penn State couldn't have looked much worse playing at home last week -- unless the school changed its name to Nebraska.
Last Week: 3-8; Season: 3-8
Best Bets last week: 0-2; Best Bets, Season: 0-2

**Blackbeard** · 09-08-2005, 10:08 PM

NY Daily News/Sports Network

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/sp...ats/cfootball/

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