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SI.com/Peter King NFL
Week 1 Matchups
9 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Oakland (0-0) at New England (0-0)
Scarier game than most would think for the defending champs, and it's because of a new Raiders acquisition. Not Randy Moss. LaMont Jordan. He'll have a big night.
Patriots 30, Raiders 24
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Denver (0-0) at Miami (0-0)
Hard to say what kind of team Nick Saban's going to field, but it better defend the run. The Broncos are going to try to pound it all day.
Broncos 21, Dolphins 10
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Houston (0-0) at Buffalo (0-0)
J.P. Losman gets chased all over Orchard Park by an underrated Texans pass rush, but this game's not about the quarterbacks. It's about the backs and Willis McGahee outgains Domanick Davis 126-59.
Bills 20, Texans 13
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup New Orleans (0-0) at Carolina (0-0)
America's Team is no longer the Cowboys. It's the Saints. But emotional backing and a warm ovation from Pantherville can take the Saints only so far. Jake Delhomme's riddles the Saint secondary.
Panthers 23, Saints 21
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Cincinnati (0-0) at Cleveland (0-0)
It's going to be a very, very long year for the Browns. So Bengals fans, don't go making any great judgments on your team after this game.
Bengals 30, Browns 6
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Chicago (0-0) at Washington (0-0)
In a game that sets offensive football back 40 years, Washington scores a defensive touchdown to win. In the back of his mind, Joe Gibbs thinks: It won't be long before I call on rookie QB Jason Campbell.
Redskins 16, Bears 9
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Seattle (0-0) at Jacksonville (0-0)
Talk about your major disappointments. Mike Holmgren's got a 5 1/2-hour plane flight after this one, and I bet he'll need that liquor cart very soon after boarding.
Jaguars 27, Seahawks 7
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Tennessee (0-0) at Pittsburgh (0-0)
The Titans are better than anyone thinks and will get a valiant effort from defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz's crew. But at the end of the day, Tennessee just can't run it well enough to win this one.
Steelers 17, Titans 16
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup New York (0-0) at Kansas City (0-0)
This is going to be a scoreathon. The Jets are going to try to run all over the Chiefs. Look for Curtis Martin to get 29 carries. But with PriET Holmes healthy, Kansas City's a better running team.
Chiefs 33, Jets 23
1 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Tampa Bay (0-0) at Minnesota (0-0)
This is not a misprint. Vikes hold a team to single digits. "We're not your daddy's Vikings," Darren Sharper, one of the new Minnesota defenders, says after the game.
Vikings 17, Buccaneers 3
4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Arizona (0-0) at New York (0-0)
It will be a shaky debut for Eli Manning, but he'll find Plaxico Burress for a big touchdown in this one. Rookie corner Corey Webster's will start his career right, with a pick of Kurt Warner.
Giants 19, Cardinals 17
4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Green Bay (0-0) at Detroit (0-0)
Six field goals by Jason Hanson is all well and good, but that means Joey Harrington's not finishing drives against a sub-par Green Bay D. Brett Favre passes 50,000 career passing yards.
Packers 34, Lions 26
4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup St. Louis (0-0) at San Francisco (0-0)
I may be a lone ranger about this team, but I think the Rams are going to be pretty good. Ten-win good. If they're going to be that successful, they've got to throttle a rebuilder like the Niners.
Rams 33, 49ers 10
4:15 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Dallas (0-0) at San Diego (0-0)
Defensive Week continues. The new-look Cowboys hold the Chargers to one offensive touchdown and 180 total yards and sack Drew Brees seven times. But Dallas can't make enough big plays to win.
Chargers 14, Cowboys 10
8:30 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Indianapolis (0-0) at Baltimore (0-0)
I just can't see the revved-up Ravens, as solid as they are on defense, harnessing Peyton Manning for four quarters. Kyle Boller throws for two touchdowns and keeps the boo birds at bay. For a while.
Colts 23, Ravens 21
9 p.m. ET
Preview | Matchup Philadelphia (0-0) at Atlanta (0-0)
Stat Line of the Week: Terrell Owens seven catches, 148 yards, two touchdowns.
Eagles 23, Falcons 13Comment
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Miami herald/Greg Cote NFL picks
Greg Cote's Week 1 Picks
By GREG COTE
[email protected]
Dolphins this Week
BRONCOS (0-0) AT DOLPHINS (0-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: Chs. 4, 12
• Line: DEN by 4 ½ • Cote: MIA 30-27
Miami will win in a medium-sized upset, but first a quick historic homage to the franchise's 40th anniversary. Dolfans are proud of the club's tradition. Will we ever forget our Hall of Fame coach, Ron Shulman? Will we ever forget our record-setting No. 13, Dean Martin? There will always be room in our hearts for the greats of the past, but it's about Zach Thomas at inside linebacker now, not Nick Manicotti. The Nuevo Dolphins win with a big defensive show and two interceptions of Jake Plummer. Denver isn't very good; forget that 4-0 preseason. Miami won't be very good, but should be better than last year's 4-12, otherwise we'll just call the new guy Nick Satan and get it over with.
Game of the Week
EAGLES (0-0) AT FALCONS (0-0)
• When: 9 p.m. Monday • TV: Chs. 10, 25
• Line: PHI by 1 ½ • Cote: ATL 23-20
It's a rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game, but it's the personalities that float the beginning of the end of Monday Night Football as we know it and make this Week 1's top attraction. You have Ron Mexico (aka Michael Vick, the NFL's most exciting player). And of course you have Terrell Owens, ensconced as the league's most controversial figure who is sure to do something infantile to mark every touchdown of his. Phils dominated 27-10 in last year's conference final, but 'Lanta has closed the gap. A lot. Enough to call this an outright upset.
Upset of the Week
TITANS (0-0) AT STEELERS (0-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: PIT by 7 • Cote: TEN 21-20
''AAAWWWK!'' trills the Upset Bird, swooping back onto the page triumphantly, raven wings iridescent. ''I have a strong feeling in my gut about this pick. Although it could be indigestion from the field mouse I just disemboweled. Aawwk!'' Why not? Tennessee is on a 10-2 run in series. Plus, Pitt is hurting at running back and is ripe for a fast wake-up slap after last year's surreal 15-1 season including Big Ben's 13-0. ''Yes, Roethlisberger,'' nods U-Bird. `` Don't forget about Steve McNaawwk!''
Dog of the Week
BENGALS (0-0) AT BROWNS (0-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: CIN by 3 ½ • Cote: CIN 41-17
Does Guinness have a world record in the category of largest paper bag? We would need one big enough to fit over Ohio, please. Cincy has designs on being somewhat OK but is not being mistaken as a playoff team. Cleveland figures to be awful enough to make Romeo Crennel say to himself, 'I put away three Super Bowl rings to coach Trent Bleepin' Dilfer? Am I nuts!?'' Watch Carson Palmer have a big game.
TEXANS (0-0) AT BILLS (0-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: BUF by 4 ½ • Cote: BUF 24-13
Buffalo's J.P. Losman is one of only two first-time starting QBs (with Chicago's Kyle Orton) in the openers. But Losman is well-insulated by a defense-strong team that ended last season on an 8-2 roll.
JETS (0-0) AT CHIEFS (0-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: K.C. by 3 • Cote: KC 27-20
You'd bet the Planes a likelier playoff team than the Chieftains. But I'll take a venue pick with Arrowhead. K.C.'s defense is decent now (Patrick Surtain helps), and Trent Green finds end zones.
SAINTS (0-0) AT PANTHERS (0-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: CAR by 7 • Cote: CAR 23-20
The sentimental Upset Bird lobbied hard for this game, reasoning the Saints will be driven to win for hurricane-suffering New Orleans. Jake Delhomme (from Lafayette, La.) will bring emotional fire, too.
BUCCANEERS (0-0) AT VIKINGS (0-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: Ch. 29
• Line: MIN by 6 • Cote: MIN 37-16
Brian Griese rises to start another season and hands off to rookie Cadillac Williams, but Tampa isn't very good. Year marks Bucs' 30th anniversary and Vikes' 45th. Key will be who has neater commemorative patches.
BEARS (0-0 AT REDSKINS (0-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: WAS by 6 • Cote: WAS 24-10
Forbes calls Washington the most valuable NFL franchise at $1.26 billion, but that won't buy a playoff spot unless Patrick Ramsey blossoms to stardom. Neither will Chitown, especially with rookie Kyle Orton at QB.
SEAHAWKS (0-0) AT JAGUARS (0-0)
• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: 1 p.m.
• Line: JAX by 3 • Cote: JAX 24-20
These teams aren't high on the playoff radar, but both are seen as potential wild-card hunters. Make it a venue call. Byron Leftwich and a healthy -- for now -- Fred Taylor should succeed against a retooled 'Hawks defense.
PACKERS (0-0) AT LIONS (0-0)
• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: DET by 3 • Cote: GB 31-17
Upset! The Gee Bees are on an 8-1 roll in the series, including an '04 sweep, and Brett Favre should get the 266 yards he needs to join Dan Marino and John Elway as the sport's only 50K career passers.
CARDINALS (0-0) AT GIANTS (0-0)
• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: Chs. 7, 29
• Line: NYG by 3 • Cote: ARI 19-17
Another upset! Arizona has lost five straight season openers, but the trend must end. Redbirds will be solid on offense as long as Kurt Warner stays healthy. And rookie UMer Antrel Rolle solidifies improving secondary.
RAMS (0-0) AT 49ERS (0-0)
• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: STL by 5 ½ • Cote: STL 34-7
I join the multitudes convinced it will be a long season for San Franawful under new coach Mike Oh-Nolan. Niners have such a bad O-line and so few weapons that Tim Rattay is stuck between helpless and hopeless.
COWBOYS (0-0) AT CHARGERS (0-0)
• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: None
• Line: SD by 4 ½ • Cote: SD 30-20
Dallas could be in playoff chase if Drew Bledsoe finds more in his tank. But Diego could be much more -- even a Super Bowl champ. LaDainian Tomlinson, best back in football, leads an offense that should score a ton.
COLTS (0-0) AT RAVENS (0-0)
• When: 8:30 p.m. Sunday • TV: ESPN
• Line: IND by 3 • Cote: IND 23-17
Peyton Manning vs. Ray Lewis. The NFL gets no better in terms of two adversaries representing state-of-the-art offense vs. defense. (Hopefully ESPN's Joe Theismann will shut up long enough to get out of the way).
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Across 14 seasons here on The Friday Page, our unique, mostly happy marriage of meticulous research and unabashed guesswork has birthed a career winning percentage of .636 overall and .509 versus the betting line.
Friends of mine who augment the income their wives know about with occasional forays into professional wagering tell me .500-plus against the Vegas number picking every game every week every year is impressive. That's why they're my friends.
Last year we checked in with an OK .629 straight-up and a number against the spread (.496) that we'd prefer you regard as a death-bed secret you swore never to repeat.Comment
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NY Newsday/Ed Mcnamara + Staff selections NFL
NFL GRIDIRON GUIDE
Not ideal spots for Peyton, Vick
BY ED McNAMARA
September 9, 2005
Best bet: Bengals
All picks against the spread
Jets: Time to dream
Jets at Chiefs
Line: Chiefs by 3. Over-under: 47 1/2.
The Jets were having Super Bowl visions in July. Talk about tempting fate. Another playoff season seems likely, but "bad things, Jet things," to quote former colleague Rich Cimini, always happen. When your nickname is Gang Green, what can you expect? Well, your Gridiron Guide was a teenage Jets fan thrilled by Super Bowl III, and I'm trying to help them get back to The Big One. To aid Herm Edwards' clock management, I'm writing a book with Jets timeout guru Dick Curl. It's called "Big Hand, Little Hand." KC's defense still stinks, and QB Trent Green just had leg surgery. Fireman Ed has back spasms unveiling his "H-E-I-M-E-R-D-I-N-G-E-R!" chant as his expectations rise.
The pick: Jets
Giants: Little brothers in arms
Cardinals at Giants
Line: Giants by 3. Over-under: 37 1/2.
Key question: If Eli Manning had a different last name, would he have been a No. 1 overall pick? Nah. Just because Peyton is his sibling doesn't mean Eli will be a superstar, too. Nature rarely is that generous. With Manning the Lesser and Tim Hasselbeck, Big Blue has cornered the market on kid brother QBs who don't measure up to the No. 1 son. Eli is rusty off his elbow-induced layoff, and he struggled before that. Dennis Green has the Cardinals moving up and they might handle another team that hasn't learned how to win.
The pick: Cardinals
Marquee matchups
Colts at Ravens
Line: Colts by 3. Over-under: 46.
Indy's offense is a front-running bully, but when the Colts can't dazzle early, Peyton Manning gets visibly frustrated. That's what happened last year for most of the game against Baltimore. The Ravens' secondary is the AFC's best, and Jamal Lewis will pound away at an interior defense that's still soft.
The pick: Ravens
Eagles at Falcons
Line: Eagles by 1 1/2. Over-under: 42.
Like the Bucs, the Eagles know how to frustrate Michael Vick. Philly, clearly the NFC's best, has covered seven straight against Atlanta, the consensus No. 2. The Eagles will show dominance in the pecking order among these big birds.
The pick: Eagles
Around the league
Broncos at Dolphins
Line: Broncos by 4 1/2. Over-under: 38 1/2.
Ricky "Weed Man" Williams, suspended four games for substance abuse, has trained a dolphin to shoot smoke out of its blowhole. Urk, urk! Ricky claims it's nicotine-free tobacco, but the ASPCA is investigating. The amazing halftime act will be the day's highlight for depressed Miami fans. The pick: Broncos
Bears at Redskins
Line: Redskins by 6. Over-under: 33.
With Jim McMahon unavailable, the Bears start rookie QB Kyle Orton, who could implode. If you like punts and the under, here's your Game of the Week.
The pick: Redskins
Texans at Bills
Line: Bills by 4 1/2. Over-under: 39.
Buffalo handed the QB job to virtual rookie J.P. Losman, who will lean heavily on RB Willis McGahee and an outstanding defense (league-leading 39 turnovers). Houston is rising and could pull a mild upset by exploiting Losman's inexperience.
The pick: Texans
Titans at Steelers
Line: Steelers by 7. Over-under: 40.
Tennessee had such salary-cap problems that half of its players make minimum wage. Another 5-11 season looms. Eventually, Ben Roethlisberger will lose a regular-season game, but not this one.
The pick: Steelers
Seahawks at Jaguars
Line: Jaguars by 3. Over-under: 40.
Defense again must carry the Jaguars, who can limit Seattle's above-average offense. The Seahawks were 5-12 against the spread last season, not covering in 13 of the last 15. That's the worst kind of loser.
The pick: Jaguars
Saints at Panthers
Line: Panthers by 7. Over-under: 44 1/2.
How unbearably sad it is that North America's most unique and fun-loving city has become a death trap. Being away from home all season will wear down the Saints, but maybe not right away. They'll be fired up here, and Carolina is a lousy home favorite (2-10 ATS).
The pick: Saints
Bengals at Browns
Line: Bengals by 3 1/2. Over-under: 44.
Motorcycle enthusiast Kellen "Money for Nothing" Winslow Jr. will miss another season, so to justify his existence, he'll amuse Dawg Pound tailgaters by doing wheelies in the parking lot. Romeo Crennel inherits a wretched Brownies team that will surrender in this Battle of Ohio.
The pick: Bengals
Bucs at Vikings
Line: Vikings by 6. Over-under: 43.
Mike Tice is up against it, because no coach caught scalping Super Bowl tickets ever made the playoffs the next year. The Vikings upgraded on "D" and still have lots of firepower even without Randy Moss. Rebuilding Tampa Bay is in a 1-5-1 ATS slump at the Metrodome.
The pick: Vikings
Packers at Lions
Line: Lions by 3. Over-under: 46.
A bad Green Bay defense got worse, so Brett Favre will be in many shootouts. As the Pack sinks, there's optimism in Detroit, a surreal concept. Joey Harrington has excellent WRs and a fine RB in Kevin Jones, so it's time to finally produce. Detroit has covered 10 of its last 12 at home vs. the Packers.
The pick: Lions
Cowboys at Chargers
Line: Chargers by 4 1/2. Over-under: 40 1/2.
San Diego won't approach its 13-2-2 ATS mark with a brutal schedule that includes trips to Foxboro, Philly and Indy. Dallas will improve, and rookie DE DeMarcus Ware could be a force. But the 'Boys won't stop LaDainian Tomlinson.
The pick: Chargers
Rams at 49ers
Line: Rams by 5 1/2. Over-under: 46.
The Rams have covered only seven of their last 26 away games. The Niners could go 2-14 again. This is the NFL. St. Louis always can score, though defense remains a major flaw.
The pick: Rams
Viewing guide Week 1
TV/Radio Broadcasts
Sunday
1 p.m. - Jets at Kansas City,
Ch.2, WABC (770), 98WEPN (1050)
1 p.m. - New Orleans at Carolina,
Ch. 5
4:15 p.m. - Arizona at Giants,
Ch. 5, WBBR (1130), WFAN (660, joined in progress)
8:30 p.m. - Indianapolis at
Baltimore, ESPN, WEPN (1050)
Monday
9 p.m. - Philadelphia at Atlanta,
Ch. 7, WFAN (660)
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The picks
Our writer's picks for this week's NFL games
Last year's records are displayed for the first week of the season.
Ed McNamara 134-126-7; best bets: 9-11
Ravens Eagles Bengals Broncos Texans
Redskins Steelers Jaguars Saints Lions
Vikings Chargers Rams Cardinals Jets
Ken Berger 131-129-7; best bets: 13-6-1
Bills Saints Bengals Dolphins Packers
Colts Seahawks Chiefs Vikings Giants
Steelers Chargers Rams Redskins Falcons
Arthur Staple first year to participate
Giants Jets Broncos Bengals Bills
Titans Redskins Panthers Vikings Jaguars
Rams Lions Cowboys Ravens Falcons
Bob Glauber 135-125-7; best bets: 12-8
Broncos Bengals Texans Titans Redskins Panthers Vikings Seahawks Jets Giants Rams Lions Chargers Ravens EaglesComment
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Blackbeard- Thanks for all your time and effort and fantastic info.
By the way - Brain Damage- eclipse- and money- yes-my head has cleared- and you were referring to my favorite group of yesteryear- Pink Floyd
"The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.Comment
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Spearit, thanks buddy.
This is quite an undertaking especially with a dial up. I have 2 spots open for an internship if anyone is interested, job entails assisting posting these picks. I will give you a master list of the sites being used, and all you have to do is follow in my footsteps, I'll count the fades. You will be paid in increased post count.
Seriously though, if anyone wants to help out, please do, you will make my life much easier. I was able to get most of the stuff out early this week because I have to work half day tomorrow and that ruined my friday night.Comment
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Dallas News/Staff Picks
This link may or may not work, you may need to register at the site, and you definently need latest version of adobe acrobat, which can be downloaded for free. these will be included in fades.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont...0909selbox.pdfComment
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BB I'm not sure if it's ok so I'm asking first. There is a raido show that I listen to every Friday, and every Friday there is a member from vegas insider that comes on and gives their opinon. Todays thoughts were from Mark Franco and he had 3 NFL picks. If it's ok I will post them here.
These are picks he said he liked. Sometimes these guy's get on there and they waver on their thoughts to where you don't know which side they like. I'll only post the picks that they give a for sure answer to.Comment
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BB. Thanks for all the hard work. I will be playing your fades, especially the ones you and Rip both agree on. The reason for the fades is that often one side looks so great that everyone is on it, and more often than naught, it loses. If we are going to play the fade concept, you have to play the ones where we think everyone is right taking the other side and even we are afraid to fade it. These are the fade play which will win the most because the line has moved so much, away from the fade play, that we get great value in playing against the team everyone is all over. Otherwise why are you and Rip spending so much time finding these for us. What am I leading to. Only that I just put a nickle on DUKE plus 20.5. You gotta keep the fade faith. Thanks again BB and Rip. One question for Blackbeard. Are you going to be able in a few week to know which newsletters are the worst so we know to fade their picks, not follow them.Comment
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Beardown, I'm not sure which show you are refering to, but go ahead & post them if they are ATS, fading loud mouth radio guys is always a good idea. speaking of which, here are Mike & the Mad dog's picks, coutesy of Rip:
Mike: Dallas, Chi, Jax
Maddog: NO, Cinncy, Denver
All the data thats posted helps with the statistical sample that we use. While we don't need every free pick in the USA, we do need enough to make the the picks legit. I took 1 boring statistcs class in college about 17 years ago.
Sandman, if you notice I try to include the records of these guys, and if you look closely, most are under 50% ATS, with very few exceptions. I thinks we have enough data at this point with all the staff picks, and I will post the fades later today. In terms of fading the worst guys, I know Rip often singles them out, but I think it's best for me just to put the numbers up and let you guys decide. this is my first year with this, and Im anxious to see how week one turns out.Comment
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Good luck today BB......
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