Saturdays Service Plays

[Blackbeard]

This is from TVG

KENTUCKY DERBY 131 ANALYSIS & WAGERING STRATEGIES

By Roxy Roxborough
Noted Las Vegas Oddsmaker and The HorsePlayer Magazine contributor

The Kentucky Derby presents horseplayers with two unique handicapping conditions unobserved in daily American racing. First, is the 10-furlong distance. Most of these horses never will be asked to run this far again. With a recent emphasis on “breed for speed,” not all will be suited for 1-1/4 miles. Second, American horseplayers are never asked to handicap 20-horse fields.

In order to get a grip on a 20-horse field, I find it best to group the horses into three categories: (The odds listed are my mine.)

Top Choices:

Horses who have shown quality races around two turns more than once in their career. I figure there is a 68-percent chance the winner will come from this group. Bellamy Road (3-to-1), Afleet Alex (9-to-2), Bandini (5-to-1), High Fly (10-to-1), High Limit (15-to-1) and Noble Causeway (15-to-1).

[Blackbeard]

Reid Cherner, USA TODAY:

Sun King, Wilko and Afleet Alex

[Blackbeard]

May 6, 2005 -- ED FOUNTAINE
BELLAMY ROAD: Runaway romp in Wood Memorial was most impressive Derby prep performance of all time. Won two-turn graded stakes as 2-year-old, making him "conceptual" dosage dual-qualifier. Huge, effortless stride allows him to outrun any horse early, but he's not speed-crazy and runs very relaxed.

SUN KING: Topped Post's "Derby Dozen" from day one until he ran fourth in Blue Grass after terrible trip, when he dropped back to last and raced seven wide over track that favored inside speed. Edgar Prado won't make same mistakes again. NOBLE CAUSEWAY: Son of Euro superstar Giant's Causeway, who was beaten head in Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill, is bred to run all day.

Longshot: HIGH FLY

RAY KERRISON

SUN KING: Everybody's Derby favorite till he slumped with dismal fourth in Blue Grass under inexplicable ride. Horses that perform poorly at Keeneland often rebound with vengeance in Derby. Faces hard task here, but price might fit risk.

AFLEET ALEX: Solid, true-blue running machine who has finished worse than second only once in nine starts because of lung infection. Always comes to run, blew Arkansas Derby off hinges, and has trained smarter than anyone else here. Top chance.



BELLAMY ROAD: Very lightly raced colt who set racing world afire with spectacular Wood Memorial romp in record time, but it's far too early to cast him in bronze yet.

Longshot: GOING WILD

JOHN DaSILVA

AFLEET ALEX: Trainer Tim Ritchey has done outstanding job with Alex, putting him on training regimen that sends him to track twice in morning, jogging or galloping. Had great work on Tuesday and is likely best-conditioned horse coming into race.

HIGH FLY: Zito trainee doesn't do anything in spectacular fashion, but just goes out and gets job done, having won five of six career starts. Has good tactical speed and with Jerry Bailey aboard, should get first run at pacesetters.

BANDINI: Despite slow final three-eighths when he won Grade 1 Blue Grass, this could be horse moving fastest in stretch drive in Derby.

Trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez still looking for their first Derby victory.

Longshot: COIN SILVER

VIC CANGIALOSI

WILKO: Ready to move forward off Santa Anita Derby effort where he was closing-with-fire third. Foot injury earlier in year slowed three-year-old progress but Craig Dollase has 2004 Juvenile champion working bullets. Stretch running style works well here in race rich in speed.

BELLAMY ROAD: Won Wood by eye-popping 171/2 lengths, tying Riva Ridge's track record, but front-running style could meet up with some trouble as speed***** like High Limit and Spanish Chesntut vie to set pace. Love him but not at 2-1.

BANDINI: Won Blue Grass by six widening lengths, defeating suspect bunch. Distance? Daddy was Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. Has nasty habit of getting overly aggressive when running in company of others.

Longshot: COIN SILVER

[Blackbeard]

The Impaler:

$25 Trifecta
W-11-High Fly, Bailey (8/1)
P-16-Bellamy Road, Castellano (5/2)
S-4-Noble Causeway, Stevens (12/1)

$50 Exacta
11-16

$100 to Win
11 - High Fly (8/1)

Prop Bet

Will a Nick Zito Trained horse win the 131 Kentucky Derby?

Yes -2.20
No +1.75

Bet a dime on Yes.

[savage1]

Jack Price/Corey Black(head)-Under in the Pacers/Celtics game
Jack speaking as usual for "Corey" says one of the two teams in the Pacers/Celts game will be "flat" today; yeah right-its game seven, the deciding game and one of the teams will be flat, and of course "Corey" knows who will be flat;that has to be rank up there with the stupidest things that Jack has ever said in his con ads.

[Spark]

BUZZ SPORTS ....

Kentucky Derby - #11 High Point 3 5/7/2005 11:59:00 PM
#11 High Point - With two time Derby winner Jerry Baily in the saddle I like High Points chances here in what should be a very competitive race with an above average field of three year olds. As Baily states this horse has multiple moves so he should be able to read how the race in unfolding and position High Point in favorable positions. I look for this colt to be right there at the end and you should be able to get a good price on him with this solid field seeing plenty of action. Play High Point to Win, Place and Show.

Should be High Fly not High Point ....

[TRUCKIN]

wayne root

chairman dallas mavs

millionaire texas rangers

[savage1]

Daaa Manager goes with OVER da total in da Texas game as your comp.

[bb33]

derby

anyone with root or ats picks on the derby?
thank you
gus marone from all pro sports has Houston +120 as a lock today

[savage1]

Northcoast Comp Line-from Stan Lisowksi-3* UNDER in Celtics game.
Now all we need to know is which team will come out flat in that game today(Call Jack Price/"Corey Black" for "not quite" free to find out) to get the other half of the parlay. lol

[wonbadz]

ats picks in horse racing forum

found ats picks in horse racing forum they pick 12, 11-17-15 afleet alex 12 to win and place and the rest in exacta and trifecta box

[savage1]

All Star Sports comp. is the LA Dodgers.

[friday]

winning points

anyone have winning points baseball plays? thanks

[Mets212]

The Prez
10 Dallas Over
5 Boston/Ind UNDER

ML
Dallas

[scraper]

Wunderdog

**BOSTON -140 over Seattle (7:05 EST)

This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions . Boston is starting to click on all cylinders while the Mariners offense and bullpen continue to struggle. Underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season, after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games are only 36-106 since 1997. Seattle's lineup just is not generating runs right now and that spells doom here. Seattle is only 7-24 after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span over the last 2 seasons. The smart money here is once again on the World Champions. Pineiro has had a rough og of it against the Sox in his career with an ERA over six in six starts. Two stars on the Red Sox.