Saturdays Service Plays

[Spark]

BUZZ SPORTS ....

Kentucky Derby - #11 High Fly 3 5/7/2005 11:59:00 PM
#11 High Fly - With two time Derby winner Jerry Baily in the saddle I like High Points chances here in what should be a very competitive race with an above average field of three year olds. As Baily states this horse has multiple moves so he should be able to read how the race in unfolding and position High Fly in favorable positions. I look for this colt to be right there at the end and you should be able to get a good price on him with this solid field seeing plenty of action. Play High Fly to Win, Place and Show.

PHILADELPHIA (12 - 17) at CHICAGO CUBS (12 - 15): Play On Philadelphia -115 4 5/7/2005 1:20:00 PM
JON LIEBER (R) vs. GLENDON RUSCH (L)(Listed) Cubs losers of 6 straight have been finding new ways to lose each day. In 6 starts for the Phillies Lieber is 4-1 while the Phillies are 4-2 overall in those games. Cubs are a go against until they break this losing streak. Play On The Philadelphia Phillies to win 1.5 Units

LOS ANGELES (17 - 10) at CINCINNATI (10 - 17): Play On Los Angeles Dodgers -125 3 5/7/2005 12:15:00 PM
DEREK LOWE (R) vs. RAMON ORTIZ (R)(Listed) The Reds are another team in a tail spin losers of 8 in a row. LOS ANGELES is 11-2 (+9.4 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was LOS ANGELES 6.2, OPPONENT 4.0. The Reds are another go against until they break the streak. Play On Los Angeles Dodgers -125 to win 1 Unit

OAKLAND (13 - 15) at NY YANKEES (11 - 18): Play On Oakland +150 4 5/7/2005 12:05:00 PM
JOE BLANTON (R) vs. MIKE MUSSINA (R)(Listed) I will grab +150 vs a team that has lost 6 of 7 and have the stronger pitcher on the bump. Blanton has a 2.67 ERA and WHIP of 1.154. Mussina has been solid for the Yankees but is constanly pitching out of trouble with a WHIP of 1.667 for the season. NY YANKEES are 6-14 (-18.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.1, OPPONENT 6.3. Play On The Oakland A's +150 to win 2 Units

MINNESOTA (16 - 11) at TAMPA BAY (11 - 18): Play On Tampa Bay -110 4 5/7/2005 5:15:00 PM
KYLE LOHSE (R) vs. SCOTT KAZMIR (L)(listed) As we have said before Kazmir is a good young left handed arm as evident by this line being at -110. Lohse has really struggled his first four starts allowing 27 hits in 21 IP which included 6 long balls. The D-Rays are a very good offensive club especially indoors. In a pretty even offensive match-up I will grab the underated Left Hander here. Play On Tampa Bay -110 to win 1.5 Untis.
SEATTLE (12 - 16) at BOSTON (16 - 12): Play On Boston Red

Sox -135 6 5/7/2005 6:05:00 PM
JOEL PINEIRO (R) vs. JEREMI GONZALEZ (R)(Listed) Gonzalez only gets his second start of the season but will give the Red Sox a good 5 or 6 IP and get good run support with his offense vs. Pineiro. Mariners are really having a tough stretch getting anything going at the plate and even if they do I don't beleive they are going to out slug the Red Sox here. Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SEATTLE) - with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent with a team on base percentage of .350 or better on the season (AL). (67-21 since 1997.) (76.1%, +38.2 units.). PINEIRO is 2-13 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record). The average score was PINEIRO 4.8, OPPONENT 6.7 Lets look to end the free week 5-2 with Play Of The Day Selections. Play On The Boston Red Sox -135 as Saturday's 6 Star Play Of The Day to win 2 units.

WASHINGTON (15 - 13) at SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 13): Play On Washington Nationals +130 3 5/7/2005 3:05:00 PM
JOHN PATTERSON (R) vs. JASON SCHMIDT (R)(Listed) Schmidt has been less than his impressive normal self thus far in his 6 start with an ERA of 3.76 and WHIP of 1.408. He can still over power hitters but has also been tagged with 5 HR's, 4 at home. Patterson has just been tremendous for the upstart Nationals with a 1.60 ERA and WHIP of 1.04. The Nationals match-up better vs. RHP than the Giants do and this is a nice price vs. the up and coming Patterson. I will grab the line value here with the Nationals. Play On Washington +130 to win 1.30 Units

[Spark]

Godsey ...

NBA
Houst under

[whatupg]

anyone with DOCS kent. derby picks. thanks and gl today!

[seaofred]

does buzz know that there is no such horse named high point in the derby!!!!!guess i won't fllow his advice since he does not even know the horses names in the race.


good morning beard just wondering if you have any picks for the derby as yesterday you said you probally would.ok pal good luch today.

seaofred

[Spark]

WiseGuys Unlimited

High Roller Stl/SD under 9
Insider Info Chic Soxs -132
Regular Seattle over 10.5
Regular Cubbies +107

NBA
Houston +4

[Blackbeard]

Mornin Red, I'm lookin, was able to get a bunch last year, havent found any yet, stay tuned.

[Spark]

stan lasowski 3* under ind/boston (comp play)

boston herald chic white sox
florida marlins

[Blackbeard]

Jimmy Price Sat Mlb
Tb +110...superlock

Jimmy Price Sat Playoff Nba
Houston +4...superlock

[Blackbeard]

Wiseguys Sat Mlb

Pitt +130
Under 9 Sd-stl
Under 7.5 Col-fla

[Blackbeard]

Cal Sports

5* nba PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR = dallas

[wonbadz]

ats derby picks

if anyone has derby picks from ats consultants could you please post thanks

[Blackbeard]

derby info:

Kentucky Derby 131 Analysis
Saturday marks the 131st running of the Kentucky Derby. This year there are 20 horses running, which will make the race very interesting. In handicapping the derby this year, there are lots of throw out horses. This helps to an extent, but the main concern among all of us is getting the perfect trip or being in position to win. Top caliber jockeys are a key in this event, but the intangibles could make difference in the winner’s share of this 2 million dollar race.
The horses that are throw outs will need a miracle to win Saturday. Morning Line odds are in parenthesis. They include Sort It Out (50-1), Andromeda’s Hero (50-1), High Limit (12-1), Flower Alley (20-1), Greater Good (20-1), Giacomo (50-1), Spanish Chestnut (50-1), Closing Argument (30-1), and Going Wild (50-1).
Sun King (15-1) drew a post position of 3. This horse has dramatically dropped off after running a nice allowance race in February. In this race he ran a 104 Beyer, and then regressed in speed figures a Tampa Bay Derby victory and the Blue Grass Stakes. In the Blue Grass he was in poor position the entire race, and came 7-8 horses wide into the lane. If he gets a better trip in the Derby, this Charismatic colt could improve. The Nick Zito / Edgar Prado connections make him hard to throw out in this race. It is no secret that Zito is loaded with 3yr olds this year, but this one seems to have fallen into his least likely winner’s category along with Andromeda’s Hero.
Noble Causeway (12-1) is the second of 5 Derby starters for Zito. The son of Giant’s Causeway has been improving in Beyer figures every race, and is coming off his first stakes race in the Florida Derby. He finished second to High Fly in that race, but wasn’t making up much ground late. Also note that hid did go 5 wide into the lane, so a better trip could put him in the exotics picture. The added distance of 1 ¼ miles should benefit him Saturday. His last work (5 furlongs in 1:00) was the 3rd best of 58 at the distance.
Coin Silver (20-1) has yet to break the 100 Beyer speed figure, which makes it improbable of a victory Saturday from historical data. But, Todd Pletcher colt has been improving and won the Lexington Stakes at Keenland on the 23rd of April. He is running back on only a 2 week break, which hurts the colt as well. A top 5 finish isn’t out of the question, but unlikely.
Greeley’s Galaxy (15-1) was supplemented for $200,000 by owner B. Wayne Hughes after his win in the Illinois Derby. He ran a career best 106 Beyer in that race and won easily by 9 ½ lengths. The connections obviously have confidence in the colt, but the Illinois Derby was a very weak field. The Beyer is encouraging though, and it would be no surprise if he was a part of the exotics.
High Fly (8-1) has now won 5 of 6 lifetime starts. His last two wins in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby have been over stable mates Bandini and Noble Causway respectively. High Fly is the 3rd of 5 Zito trained Derby starters. In the Florida Derby he showed that he had the ability to rate off the lead, which was impressive. His last work was also impressive going 5 in 1:00. Jerry Baily is up and will have High Fly in the best position possible. The only knock against the horse is that his best Beyer figure is a 102. Baily stated after the Florida Derby that he held off Noble Causeway and still had a lot left in the tank. If this is indeed true, a big race could be looming. Dangerous Contender.
Afleet Alex (9-2) looked spectacular in the Arkansas Derby, winning by 8 lengths. Alex had excuses in the Rebel Stakes, and came back to prove that he is indeed a legitimate contender. His Beyer figures this year are impressive with a 106 (Mountain Valley Stakes) and a 108 (Arkansas Derby). The 108 figure is the second highest in the field. Afleet Alex likes to run back off the lead, but was never any more than 4 off the lead in the Arkansas Derby. Another trip like that, and he will have an excellent shot at winning. Trainer Tim Richey expects a stalking style race also. Richey believes that Alex will sit 8-10 lengths back, save ground, steadily move up, and show the same late kick he did in the Arkansas Derby. The only question is the jockey Jeremy Rose, as he is second tier to most of his rival jockeys in this race. As for Alex, he looks to be primed for the race of his career. Dangerous Contender.
Wilko (20-1) is attempting to change the history of past BC Juvenile winners not winning the Kentucky Derby. He has not won since the BC Juvenile race in 2004, partly because of setbacks this spring. He is reported to be 100% now, and has been training excellent. His last race was the Santa Anita Derby, in which he was 3rd by ½ a length. He can improve, and looks to be heading that way. Wilko is an unlikely winner, but should be considered for exotics.
Bandini (6-1) is the son of the 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. Bandini has progresses this spring with his Beyer figures, and ran a lifetime high 103 with his win in the Blue Grass. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been happy with Bandini’s progress, and believes the horse has become physically stronger and has matured mentally. The mental aspect is very important for Fusaichi Pegasus colts. His lone work since the Blue Grass was good, and he appears to be in good shape for Saturday. Another step forward will put Bandini in a good position to win. Dangerous Contender.
Bellamy Road (5-2) is the deserving favorite of the Derby. Nick Zito has to like his chances to win his 3rd career Kentucky Derby. In his last race (Wood Memorial) he won by 17 ½ lengths. He earned a scary 120 Beyer for this performance. This is the highest Beyer by 12 points in the field. He has now won his last 2 races by over 33 lengths. With lots of expected speed in the race, Bellamy Road may be forced to relax and sit right off of the lead. Zito says Bellamy is comfortable in his works rating behind horses, but we will find out for sure Saturday. Make no mistake, anything close to a repeat performance is going to be hard to beat. Dangerous Contender.
Don’t Get Mad (30-1) is coming into the derby on 1 week rest. He won the Derby Trial at Churchill, making up 10 lengths and winning by 7. This seems impressive, but he only earned a 98 Beyer in the race. He is another horse that hasn’t cracked the 100 Beyer figure, and is a longshot.
Buzzards Bay (20-1) was the winner in the Santa Anita Derby. The Jeff Mullins colt is coming into the Derby in top form, but again hasn’t topped a 100 Beyer in any of his races. The west coast horses have not been impressive this year, and it would be hard to see Buzzards Bay being a part of the picture.
As for any derby, pace scenarios are the key to picking the winner. We have seen front runners and early pressers win the last 3 years. This year’s race seems to have tons of early speed, and some very interesting closers as well. If you prefer front runners, High Fly or Bellamy Road are solid selections. Bandini is an early presser that is a good selection. Closers Afleet Alex and Noble Causeway are good selections as well. Longshots with exotic potential include: Sun King, Greeley’s Galaxy, and Wilko. Good Luck everyone!

[Blackbeard]

more:

Who’s Hot

Afleet Alex- The Arkansas Derby was very impressive, he is a true contender

High Fly- Has done nothing wrong so far, but his performances aren’t as impressive as others

Bellamy Road- Anything close to a replication of his last will kill the field

Bandini- Impressive in the Blue Grass, another step forward is definitely possible

Don’t Get Mad- Made a huge move in the Derby Trial, but can he improve while running back in two weeks?

Greeley’s Galaxy- Won the Illinois with ease, steady improver has a chance


Who’s Improving

Wilko- He is finally healthy and has been working great

Flower Alley- Although he got smoked by Afleet Alex, he only making his 5th career start and is in a good barn

Buzzards Bay- SA Derby winner is improving, but the race was not impressive

Coin Silver- Another horse in the Pletcher barn, ran impressively in the Lexington

Noble Causeway- Zito has a good horse here, probably the second best 3yo in his barn


Who’s Not

High Limit- stretch caused him to jump for the second strait race

Sun King- was anything but impressive in his last 2

Greater Good- nothing good

Giacomo- may have topped out in the mid to upper 90’s Beyer wise

Closing Argument- the Blue Grass was very disappointing

Spanish Chestnut- will ensure a lively pace in the Derby

Andromeda’s Hero- Dusted by Alex, but did improve with a 94 Beyer

Sort it Out- Baffert’s last shot for 2005, and he will be a longshot

Going Wild- Lukas only hope since loss of Consolidator

[Blackbeard]

Bill Finley derby picks(have write up if wanted)

Picks: 1. Afleet Alex 2. Noble Causeway 3. Sun King

[Blackbeard]

Ellis Starr | Equibase.com

Kentucky Derby – Grade 1
Race 10 at Churchill Downs – Louisville, Kentucky
Saturday, May 7, 2005
One mile and one-quarter, for three year olds
Purse: $2,000,000
TV: NBC 5 PM ET
Full Field to Contest Wide Open Kentucky Derby 131

Six grade 1 stakes winners, six grade 2 stakes winners and eight other top horses run for the roses in Kentucky Derby 131. With five entrants trained by Nick Zito, three by Todd Pletcher, and many others from fine barns such as those of D. Wayne Lukas, Bobby Frankel and Bob Baffert, anything can happen.

My Top Five:

High Fly - Winner of the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his most recent start, earning a career best 93 Equibase Speed Figure, High Fly continues to improve with each start. Each of his Speed Figures in 2005 has been better than the previous one, and with Jerry Bailey guiding High Fly for the third straight time and with more improvement possible, he appears to be very tough as part of the quintet of entrants trained by Nick Zito.

Noble Causeway – Also trained by Nick Zito, Noble Causeway is coming into the race off a second-place finish to High Fly in the Florida Derby. Noble Causeway improved for the second straight time in that race, earning a career best 92 Equibase Speed Figure. Noble Causeway, a son of 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Giants Causeway, appears to be able to handle this mile and one-quarter distance and to continue his pattern of improvement.

Afleet Alex - Winner of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 16, Afleet Alex overcame some problems prior to that race and exploded in the stretch to dominate by eight lengths, earning a 93 Equibase Speed Figure. Afleet Alex has appeared to look spectacularly since coming to Churchill Downs, with a sensational pair of workouts recently, and he too could improve off that very competitive last race speed figure.

Bandini – Won the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in his most recent start, dominating after stalking in third place most of the race, earning an 88 Equibase Speed Figure. Bandini ran second to High Fly in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes prior to that and earned a similar 89 Equibase Speed Figure. Although three to four speed rating points short of High Fly, Noble Causeway and Afleet Alex, Bandini has the potential to move up another notch in this situation.

Coin Silver – Trained by Todd Pletcher (who also saddles Bandini and Flower Alley), Coin Silver moved forward by a leap and a bound when winning the Grade 2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland two weeks ago, earning a solid 87 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Lightly raced, Coin Silver is on a pattern of three straight improvements in Equibase Speed Figures and may not have peaked yet.