The Homer System Test

[frankb03]

Homer per your request. Here's the results for home teams that have a 4 or more game homestand.

Since 1995 there have been 375 homestands of exactly 4 games. Sixteen of those homestands the home team was 0-4 ATS

Occurance/All ATS loses/$Profit

• 4 games - 375/16/$7983
• 5 games - 160/1/$12016
• 6 games - 47/0/$4700
• 7 games - 16/0/$1600
• 8 games - 7/0/$700
• 9 games - 1/0/$100

Net profit grand total $27,099

Results based on $100 win amount for each homestand.

In 4 game homestand when all 4 games are ATS losers the total amount lost for that series is $1844

In a 5 game homestand the total loss for 0-5 ATS is $3984. The lone 0-5 ATS homestand was the 1999 LA Clippers.

My data dates to 1995. In this period there's been no 0-6 ATS teams. A 0-6 homestand would result in a $8477 loss.

This season the Nets have had a 0-4 homestand.

[frankb03]

Remaining 4 or more game homestands this season:

03-02-2005 BOS
03-02-2005 NOR
03-02-2005 SAN
03-04-2005 SEA
03-06-2005 CLE
03-06-2005 NYK
03-06-2005 SAC
03-07-2005 MIA
03-12-2005 ATL
03-12-2005 SAN
03-13-2005 DEN
03-15-2005 DAL
03-19-2005 LAC
03-22-2005 UTAH
03-24-2005 ORL
03-24-2005 POR
03-25-2005 DET
03-26-2005 CHARLOTTE
03-28-2005 MIL
04-05-2005 DAL
04-09-2005 DEN
04-09-2005 WAS
04-12-2005 PHO
04-13-2005 HOU

[Homer]

So if I'm reading this right we may have a jackpot ?

And this is based off of straight across the boards bets right ?

Thanks Frank thats some great information. Hope we can use it to make some winners for the Forum :D

[twr108]

Remaining 4 or more game homestands this season:

03-02-2005 BOS
03-02-2005 NOR
03-02-2005 SAN
03-04-2005 SEA
03-06-2005 CLE
03-06-2005 NYK
03-06-2005 SAC
03-07-2005 MIA
03-12-2005 ATL
03-12-2005 SAN
03-13-2005 DEN
03-15-2005 DAL
03-19-2005 LAC
03-22-2005 UTAH
03-24-2005 ORL
03-24-2005 POR
03-25-2005 DET
03-26-2005 CHARLOTTE
03-28-2005 MIL
04-05-2005 DAL
04-09-2005 DEN
04-09-2005 WAS
04-12-2005 PHO
04-13-2005 HOU

Regardless of the line are these the plays to take?

[RJeremy]

Frank, explain what you did here.

[frankb03]

So if I'm reading this right we may have a jackpot ?

And this is based off of straight across the boards bets right ?

Thanks Frank thats some great information. Hope we can use it to make some winners for the Forum :D

There's one potential flaw. Pushes that occur during the homestands. I tested for 4 ATS loses. It's possible there was a PUSH with 3 ATS losses. I have to test a bit more for 0-3-1 homestands.

On Wednesday, I'll test 4 or more game road trips. I won't be able to do so tonight or tomorrow.

[RJeremy]

so you're saying take the home team until they win if they have 4 or more home games in a row??? if they win the first game, you lay off of them for the rest? ATS of course.

[frankb03]

Remaining 4 or more game homestands this season:

03-02-2005 BOS
03-02-2005 NOR
03-02-2005 SAN
03-04-2005 SEA
03-06-2005 CLE
03-06-2005 NYK
03-06-2005 SAC
03-07-2005 MIA
03-12-2005 ATL
03-12-2005 SAN
03-13-2005 DEN
03-15-2005 DAL
03-19-2005 LAC
03-22-2005 UTAH
03-24-2005 ORL
03-24-2005 POR
03-25-2005 DET
03-26-2005 CHARLOTTE
03-28-2005 MIL
04-05-2005 DAL
04-09-2005 DEN
04-09-2005 WAS
04-12-2005 PHO
04-13-2005 HOU

RJ, this is the remaining schedule this season for game one of 4 or more game homestands.

[frankb03]

so you're saying take the home team until they win if they have 4 or more home games in a row??? if they win the first game, you lay off of them for the rest? ATS of course.

Correct!

[Homer]

I read it wrong you up the bets each game right.

game 1 110 / 100 - Lose -110

Game 2 231 / 210 - Wins +100

End the series. You take the 100 and go onto the next

[Homer]

so you're saying take the home team until they win if they have 4 or more home games in a row??? if they win the first game, you lay off of them for the rest? ATS of course.

Yep :D :D

[frankb03]

I read it wrong you up the bets each game right.

game 1 110 / 100 - Lose -110

Game 2 231 / 220 - Wins +100

End the series. You take the 100 and go onto the next ???

Correct!

[frankb03]

Game 1 - 110 / 100
Game 2 - 231 / 210
Game 3 - 485 / 441
Game 4 - 1018 / 926
Game 5 - 2139 / 1945
Game 6 - 4493 / 4084 (god forbid) LOL

[phonepole]

Are these straight $100 bets on the home team on the first game of the homestand, or each game on the homestand, or progressive bets..... How does an 0-4 series work out to a loss of $1844, and the 5th loss of an 0-5 series add an extra $2140 loss???

[TwoTonTony]

Woww....seems so eeasy!!!