trotter OMG where you been dog,haven't seen you in a good while,well just want to say you are the masterpiece of the football puzzle bro.now lets get some winners and good luck to ya trotter good to see you again.
I've been scratching my head on these plays all week, and the abundance of snow and wind at both venues clouds the issue even more.* My initial lean in the AFC game was to the Patroits, but the bad weather would seem to favor the hometown Steelers.* In the NFC, I was leaning to Philadelphia but if you buy the theory that the snow favors the better rushing team that would put you on the Falcons.* Throwing another consideration into the mix, history indicates that conference title games are frequently one sided contests:* in fact, since the AFL/NFL merger nearly 70% of conference title games have been decided by double digit margins.* So the trick becomes isolating the team most likely to dominate the other, but that's not so easy this year due not only to the weather but to other variables:* Will Pittsburgh's rookie QB rise to the occasion with a trip to the Superbow on the line?* Can the Steelers dominate the Patriots twice in the same year?* Which team will benefit the most from bad weather?* Over in the NFC game, we've got another set of questions:* How will the dome team respond to playing in winter weather?* Most importantly, perhaps, is the Philadelphia injury situation--how much have they kept "under wraps" since Terrell Owens went out with an injury?*
We'll come back to the sides in a moment but let's turn our attention to the totals:* OVERs and UNDERs are an even 18-18 in the L36 championship games, but the "obvious" play this year has to be on the UNDER due to the foul weather.* My raw point projections (not accounting for the weather) have the Falcons/Eagles at 36 combined points and the Pats/Steelers at 33 total points.* In other words, a slight edge to the UNDER in both contests but any value on that position has been lost due to the line movement based on the projection of bad weather.* NFC game opened at 42, and that's down to 36 or 37.* AFC opened at 38 and is down to 34' everywhere.*
So we've got no value on the totals and big questions on the side positions for both games.* As a result, we'll make these recommendations only and hope for some entertaining matchups since there doesn't appear to be much to work with from a wagering standpoint:
AFC:* Recommendations only on New England/UNDER
NFC:* Recommendations only on Philadelphia/UNDER
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