Sunday's Service Plays & Requests

[wayne1218]

Post Here.

[Stripe]

Mel Stewart Sports

If anyone knows anybody who has the service of Mel Stewart it would be appreciated if his picks could be posted on this great board. His web site, WWW.MelStewartSports.Com is also advertising the picks, but the $$$ asked is tooo high for me. Last week I posted his GOY (New England). Mel is one of the best handicappers in the business.

[Hose]

DR. BOB NFL...

3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH 21 New England (-3.0) 14

I never imagined that a team with a 16-1 record would be an underdog at home in a
playoff game, but that's the scenario we have here. When I was asked on Sunday afternoon what I thought the line on this game would be, I said that Pittsburgh should be favored by 3 ½ points, but I'd probably make the line 2 ½ or 3 out of respect for the Patriots.
I was shocked when I saw that New England was favored by 3 points. It's funny how
everyone was questioning the merits of the Patriots prior to last week's game against
the Colts, who most predicted would win that game (I leaned with NE), and a week later
the Pats are being hailed as too good to lose ? even on the road to a 16-1 team. It
strikes me that the public, rather than admitting they were wrong about how good the
Colts are, have simply come to the conclusion that the Patriots must be REALLY good to
have beaten the Colts so easily. Throw in the fact that Pittsburgh struggled to beat the Jets and you have the makings of a ridiculous pointspread in this game. The only reason
the Steelers struggled to beat the Jets was their -2 in turnover margin with one of
those interceptions being returned for an 86 yard touchdown. The Steelers should be
applauded for winning a game in which they were -2 in turnover margin, which is tough to
do, and Pittsburgh out-played the Jets from the line of scrimmage 364 yards (at 4.9
yards per play) to 275 yards (at 4.4 yppl). That game was the only time in Ben
Roethlisberger's 15 starts that the Steelers turned the ball over more than twice (NE
has had 3 or more turnovers 5 times), so it's not likely that the Steelers will have
similar turnover issues this week. These teams match up pretty evenly on both offense
and defense, as both teams have a rushing attack that rates at 0.1 ypr better than
average and a highly efficient quarterback, with Roethlisberger rating at 1.3 yards per pass play better than average (7.2 yppp against teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppp on
defense) and Brady rating at 1.0 yppp better than average (7.0 yppp against teams that
allow 6.0 yppp). Pittsburgh has better defensive numbers than the Patriots for the
season, but New England has actually been better defensively since Ty Law has been
injured, as Law didn't support the run and the Pats defend the run a lot better since
he's been out. New England has yielded just 3.5 ypr and 5.7 yppp (to teams that combine
to average 4.1 ypr and 6.3 yppp) in games without Law, with the exception of their
regular season finale against the 49ers when backups got a lot of snaps. Pittsburgh's
defense is nearly as good, allowing 3.7 ypr and 5.3 yppp (to teams that combine to
average 4.1 ypr and 5.9 yppp) in all games excluding their season finale against
Buffalo. New England was without star running back Corey Dillon in their 20-34 week 8
loss at Pittsburgh and I took the Pats' offensive stats from that game out when I
calculated the math on this game. My math model would still favor the Steelers by 1 ½
points if this were a regular season game, but home field advantage in the playoffs is 2 ½ points higher than in the regular season, so the math projects Pittsburgh by 4 points in this game. The Steelers also apply to a 43-12-1 ATS playoff home team situation and home underdogs are 18-6 ATS in playoff games since 1976. I've been hearing everywhere that Bill Belichick hasn't lost to a quarterback he's facing for a second time in a season, but have people forgotten that Ben Roethlisberger is a quarterback that hasn't lost a football game that he's started in over 2 years? With the line value and the situation strongly favoring the Steelers I will make them a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more. Downgrade Pittsburgh to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of less than 3points.

[SuperZero]

I request big al's 5* NFL playoff GOY as well as his 4* NFL play. Thanks men, 0.

[lawman1]

Goldsheet Newsletter

Does anyone have the Goldsheet newsletter's projected scores for Sunday's games? Thanks in advance.

-LM1

[SuperZero]

I will not be able to see Hammerriin Hank Goldberg tomorrow morning on ESPN. Please post his picks with scores if you can. Thank you.

On an unrelated note. why would Don Trump get married when he is loaded and can milk the cow through the fence??? Again I am missing something!

[kash]

Gold Sheet

Does anyone have the Goldsheet newsletter's projected scores for Sunday's games? Thanks in advance.

-LM1

Gold Sheet Newsletter:

Phil 24 - Atl 10

N. Eng 20 - Pitt 12

[raedan]

NEVER WONG
New England
Atlanta/Philadelphia OVER

He went 0-2 last weekend.

[kash]

Game Day

Game Day (Bill Hilton) late phones:

3* Pittsburgh

2* Philadelphia

[jaguilar]

wayne root nfl full card?

William Foote GOY NE
also Phi

Redzonesports comp ATL

[goldencontender]

The Pirate Group Has Top Plays On Pitt,and Philly,and Regulars On Both Unders, Marclawrence Has Pitt,and Philly And Chuck Luck Has Atlanta And Pitt. Bol Gc.

[3 and a Hook]

GOLD SHEET ANALYSIS PHILLY - ATL


PHILADELPHIA 24 - Atlanta 10-Been there...done that? As far as
Philadelphia is concerned, that wouldn't be a good thing, considering that
the Eagles have reached three straight NFC title games and lost them all,
including the last two years at home vs. Tampa Bay and Carolina (scoring only
13 points total vs. the latter pair). What makes this year any different,
especially when the offseason acquisition HC Andy Reid thought would finally
get Philly over this conference title game hump, WR Terrell Owens (14 TD
catches TY), is injured and will miss this contest?
Simply, we're not convinced Atlanta presents quite the same obstacle
that the Rams did in 2001, nor the Bucs and Panthers the past two seasons.

Certainly, the Falcons offer some potentially troubling matchups to anyfoe. Atlanta, helped in no small part by QB Mike Vick's dangerous scrambling
ability (902 YR!), ranked first in rushing this season with 167 ypg and
destroyed the Rams last week on the dry, fast Georgia Dome carpet with 327
yards on the ground. The juiced-up Falcon "D" installed by former Packer
d.c. Ed Donatell (fired after LY's infamous 4th-and-26 playoff failure in
Philly) and 1st-year HC Jim Mora, Jr. led the NFL with 48 sacks. But we
don't believe either of those Atlanta strengths will decide this game,
because the Eagles are well-constructed to deal with both.

Granted, slowing the mercurial Vick is easier said than done, but shrewd
Philly d.c. Jim Johnson is noted not only for his aggressive schemes, but
also for minimizing the damage mobile QBs can do to his defense-which was the
case the last time he faced Vick, limiting the QB's improvisations in a 20-6
Divisional Playoff win two years ago. And Johnson has a few more defensive
"toys" at his disposal than a few years ago, namely ex-Titan DE Jevon Kearse
and ex-Redskin LB Jeremiah Trotter, both of whom have lent a big-play
component to the Eagle front 7. It's also worth noting that before Reid and
Johnson gave ample rest to their starters in the final two meaningless
reg.-season games vs. the Rams & Bengals, Philly had allowed the fewest
points in the league. And though RBs Warrick Dunn (1106 YR) & T.J. Duckett
(509 YR) are nice diversions, make no mistake-as Vick goes, so goes Atlanta.
Johnson's track record would indicate that, the Eagles, at the least, can
substantially minimize the damage Vick can cause.

And, T.O. or not, the hub of the Philly attack remains QB Donovan
McNabb, whose wheels, though not quite Vick-like, are certainly good enough
to help him negate much of the pressure Mora's defense will likely bring.
Let's also not forget that a now-seasoned McNabb (33 TDP) isn't likely to
self-destruct, evidenced by the mere 8 picks he's tossed in '04. If McNabb
can dodge the Atlanta pass rush, he ought to be able to do some business vs.
a so-so Falcon 2ndary, even without Owens at his disposal. Remember that the
versatile Brian Westbrook, who was out with injury at this stage LY, can be
called upon to fill a variety of roles in Reid's offense, running for 70
yards and catching 5 passes for 47 more in last week's handy win over the
Vikings.

"Totals"-wise; consider the decided "under" slant of both teams this
season (Atlanta "under" 11 of 17, Philly "under" 12 of 17).

[3 and a Hook]

GOLD SHEET Analysis NEw England - Philly

New England 20 - PITTSBURGH 12-Neither of these QBs has ever lost a
playoff game as a starter! Although Pittsburgh rookie Ben Roethlisberger
"tried" last week vs. the Jets (two interceptions) and then-younger Tom Brady
was knocked out early in 2001's AFC title game in the Steel City with a rib
injury, with veteran Drew Bledsoe taking over and generating the winning
points in a 24-17 N.E. victory.

There are some important differences between this one and the first
Patriot-Steeler contest Oct. 31st. Pittsburgh won that game 34-20,
collecting 4 takeaways, building a 21-3 first-Q lead, and out-rushing New
England 221 to 5! N.E. was on a record 21-game winning streak at the time,
and the Pats went into the contest without RB Corey Dillon (minor injury;
DNP), key WR Deion Branch, and starting RT Tom Ashworth. The Pats were
coming off a key AFC East victory the week before vs. the then undefeated
Jets; the Steelers were coming off their bye. Facing a rookie QB making just
his fifth career start, N.E. was ripe for the picking. And AFC power-to-be
Pittsburgh gave the champs a thorough butt-kicking, sacking Brady 5 times,
intercepting him twice, & forcing him to fumble once (K.Faulk had the other
TO).

This time, it's the Steelers who have the long winning streak (15
straight), with Roethlisberger having started 14 of those (Tommy Maddox
filled in for the reg.-season finale at Buffalo). Now, Duce Staley (125 YR
in the first meeting) is not yet 100% on his strained hamstring, WR Plaxico
Burress (2 TDC in the first meeting) doesn't appear to have regained his full
effectiveness due to his own hamstring, and CB Deshea Townsend (39-yd. int.
TD in first meeting) is trying to get by despite a hand fracture.

New England, down three starters on its defense vs. Indy last week (CBs
Law & Poole; DE Seymour) and one on its offense (Ashworth), has shown it has
the depth and coaching to cope with the inevitable injury trials in an NFL
campaign. Corey Dillon (1535 YR TY; 144 more vs. Colts week ago) and Branch
are back. The entire Patriot team (30-2 its last 32 games overall; 24-7-1
vs. the spread) is now forewarned about the offensive power and the defensive
force that is the 2004 Steelers.

Perhaps most importantly, at least on defense, is the fact that the word
is out on the marvelous, rugged-but still rookie-Roethlisberger (66.4%, 17
TDs, 11 ints. in reg. season), who has now tossed 7 ints. in his last 4 games
overall, as opposing defenses have begun using a confusing array of zone
defenses against him, causing more hesitation than earlier in the season.
And who is better at camouflage, deception & confusion than Bill Belichick?
Whose defense has held practically-perfect Peyton Manning and the dynamic
Indy offense to a total of 17 points with 5 ints. the last two playoff
campaigns? Moreover, which of these two QBs has won 7 straight playoff
games, all by 3 points or more in the last 3+ seasons? Which QB has put his
team on the scoreboard first in 16 of 17 games TY? Lastly, must expect Brady
and heady off. coord. Charlie Weis to note the way the Jets' Chad Pennington
slowed down the Steelers zone blitzes last week, audibling to several
successful running plays into defensive weakness.

Earlier this year, a well-satisfied N.E. team traveled to Pittsburgh on
Halloween, and the Pats were the "treat" for the hungry Steelers, who pulled
the "trick." This time, look for the champs to have plenty of tricks of
their own. Totals players note that Pittsburgh allowed the fewest
points-against TY; N.E. tied for second.)
(04-PITT 34-N. Eng. 20...P.25-19 P.49/221 N.6/5 N.25/43/2/243 P.18/24/0/196
P.0 N.2)
(04-PITTSBURGH +3 34-20...SR: Pittsburgh 13-7)

[Kaptain]

Busy Day anticipated

It's early now, 6:00 my time CST, and I would like to suggest the following for todays activities...It's gonna get hectic...

1..Do not, I repeat, Do Not request plays...They will be posted as soon as the usual/normal providers get em...There are "way too many" request, not to mention, duplicate requests for the same cappers....

2..If you get the Forum cluttered up with requests, and long write ups, it may hinder/slow down/stop the normal providers from their input........we all lose out then...

3..Show the Services picks, projected score (if given), and do not show long/lenghty/useless write ups...If we are looking for that particular service, we should be familiar with em, therefore; we should know their logic, don't care how they got their opinion, either you go with em or not...In lieu of cutting and pasting long/drawn out reasons for the picks, just retype the Service name, pick, and score (if shown)..

4..Let's hold down the idle chat/humor/ or in essence BS at the peak times....I'm not familiar with the peak times, maybe Monte/Wayne could inject/add the best times for us to start being stingy/controllable with our inputs...

5..I for one---love the chatter/BS, but we need to priortize for today, and one more week to come...Merely trying to give a heads up, to the inevitable (slown down/drag down/overload to this Forum) at "PEAK" time..

6..Hope everyone takes this constructively, some won't, and lets get all our info, in a timely mannner, allow the inputers to have their freedom, and kick the mans butt....LOL to all...
as always, with respect to all involved....kmann--kapt

[mikeatnight]

top newsletter selections for football

POINTWISE (1 best)

Pittsburgh 23, New England 20 (4)
Phil 24, Atlanta 23 (6)

THE MAX BY KEVIN O'NEAL

Phil Under
Pittsburgh Under

GOLD SHEET

Phil 24, Atlanta 10
New England 20, Pittsburgh 12

SPORTS REPORTER

Pittsburgh over New England by 6 (23-17) Recommended Play
Philadelphia UNDER the total (17-10) Recommended Play

WINNING POINTS

Phil 24, Atlanta 14
Pittsburgh 17, New England 13

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK MID-WEEK REPORT

Phil over Atlanta by 10
Pittsburgh over New England by 3

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!