AFC Championship New England/Pittsburgh, My 2 Cents and Now I Want Yours!

[OleBlueEyes]

OK gang. Let's talk some football. Here are my thoughts on the Pittsburgh/New England game tomorrow. SOME VERY KEY RED FLAGS CAUGHT MY EYE ABOUT THIS GAME......

The way I look at this game, there can only be one right side. First, I begin by admitting that I had the wrong side last week with Indianapolis over New England. I won Philly/Minnesota but dropped the AFC game on Sunday. This week, I see a total mismatch on the football field in the AFC Title Game......

Let's begin with a now 16-1 Pittsburgh Steelers squad. A team that has now won SIXTEEN straight games. The Steelers are the proud owners of a dominant rushing attack, capable big play wide outs, a solid (USUALLY mistake free) quarterback, a great defense and an enormous home field advantage in the Steel City. Pittsburgh BURIED New England earlier this season and now they meet again, YET......

OK.... now..... When I saw this line I almost jumped out of my shoes:

Red Flag #1 (The Vegas Spread):
NEW ENGLAND -2.5/3!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Are you kidding me? THE SAME NEW ENGLAND TEAM THAT ALMOST EVERYONE IN THE WORLD HAD LOSING TO INDIANAPOLIS LAST WEEK is now FAVORED on the ROAD in a conference championship game vs a 16-1 team that has won 16 in a row and who already BEAT the visitors earlier this season?......

Red Flag #2 (Current Form):
Let's face it people, Ben Roethlisberger LOOKED like a rookie last week against the Jets and PLAYED like a rookie last week against the Jets. Big Ben may very well come out and light the world afire on Sunday but the Big Ben THAT I SAW last week has ZERO chance (in my mind) of beating a Bill Belichek defense - especially with the Patriots entering with bitter revenge and the New England coaching staff CERTAINLY gameplanning for Pittsburgh all season long knowing that they would most likely eventually face each other again......

Red Flag #3 (The Defenses):
The Pittsburgh defense that I saw last week HAD HOLES. The Jets did basically what they wanted, WHEN they wanted - and had the game won TWICE if not for the shanks by Doug Brien. I believe that the Patriots have the ability to carve up the Steelers defense at will tomorrow. Pinpoint short to moderate range passing by Brady and a ball control ground game with Dillon should have New England in control of this game (in my humble opinion). I do not see Bettis being able to run on New England, and I do not see Roethlisberger being able to move the ball on the Patriots D......

Give me the best coaching staff in football, gameplanning for Pittsburgh for half a season now, IN REVENGE MODE and out to prove who is the better team!.......

I am significantly worried however, that I could be on the wrong side of this game (as I was last week with Indy/New England) BUT everything in my mind lines up perfectly for New England to soundly beat Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball tomorrow. I will most likely choose to lay under a FG with New England on some kind of point buy move.

Best of luck with whoever you take in the game and if you have any thoughts feel free to share! Enjoy the games tomorrow guys and thanks to everyone who makes BC the best sports betting forum on the net



OBE

[griswold]

Blue Eyes,

For reasons I stated in my own thread, I disagree. You assert the Jets did what they wanted with the Steeler defense. I disagree. Jets scored NO points on offense (FG off turnover, Int runback for TD, punt return for TD). Teams that can run the ball and have strong defenses are huge plays in the NFL. Pittsburgh fits both and is at home. Plus, don't discount the points. 3 is a lot in a game that I see in the 17-14 range. Roethlisberger did look bad last week and has a bad hand but he has been very cool under pressure all year. New England does have the better coaching staff but not only lost decisively in Pittsburgh, but fell apart in Miami in a rather meaningful game (ended all chance for homefield advantage). As for the other game, if the Eagles can contain Vick's run, they win easily.

[OleBlueEyes]

gris, I saw your thread and noticed that we are against each other! Just to clarify, when I said "the Jets did what they wanted, when they wanted" I mean to say that they basically moved the ball at will against the Steelers D when the game was on the line. Drives stalled out etc, but the Jets converted almost every short yardage play that they needed to convert and in key situations, they had their way moving the ball methodically down the field TWICE when the game was on the line. I see the "fundamentals" in the good running team with a dominant defense AT HOME in a conference championship game GETTING POINTS! <<<<< that is why the line jumped out at me like a 5 million pound elephant in the room. It looks REAL EASY to take the Steelers in this game (at least in my mind), and based on what I saw last week, I will take my chances with this Patriots team and coaching staff in the biggest game of the season!

BOL to you on Sunday pal

OBE

[Mystic Man 44]

The big question last week was did Indianapolis finally put a team together to match New England? As we all saw Indy was not even close!!!! Patriots shut down that offense and made them look quite bad!!!! Pittsburgh does not have any where near the offensive fire power that the Colts did. Rookie QB will get a big dose of reality trying to make plays against Pats D. It will be a very physical game, but New England will reach into their bag of tricks and have a Pittsburg shell shocked by halftime!!!! Then in the second half Pats will just control the clock the Steelers fans will be leaving in droves!!!

[Getch]

dont judge a game base on last weeks performance, thats what vegas wants you to do. although this is coming from a Steelers fan, im not betting with my heart but with my money and based on what they done this year, particulary against the patsies, earlier this year. vegas wants you to take the NE PATSIES minus points, because they even know the Steelers willl win. dont get me wrong the patsies are a talented team. but the steelers are going bust through the front line and maybe have a few quarterback ribs on the sidelines.
all in all. good luck GO STEELERS!!

[OleBlueEyes]

Let's bring this one home boys. New England had me on pins and needles there for a while. 34-20, we should be safe but who knows with all of the garbage I have seen in my lifetime! Hopefully the Pats close this one out, it would be a huge win for me on my biggest wager of the season. bol to everyone

OBE

[Spark]

Fat Lady Is Starting To Sing Buddy ....

[OleBlueEyes]

it certainly was sweet Spark! I felt strongly about this game, and thankfully this one turned out for the best. Hopefully Super Sunday will be great too. Hope you have a great couple of weeks of hoops before the big game!



OBE