Tuesday's Service Plays Thread

[gilg]

Ted Servansky:
USC
Kyle Baugues:
POW =USC
NBA:
Knicks
Lakers
CBB:
Richmond
Wyoming
Lonestar Sports: (new guy trying to build a service...will be giving away his picks until he builds a reputation)
went 3-1 last night
10* on OU

[gilg]

Where can I find GodsPicks?
Is that same as Mike Godsey?

[deville]

big al b-ball------mil bucks and ny knicks

[volsfan]

ace

CFB
3u Oklahoma -1
CBB
4u San Fran -6 1/2
NBA
3u LA Lakers +11

Yesterday 2-0 cbb +6u....will try an keep track of how they are doing with their picks the rest of the year.
GL
ACE

ace thanks for your post,i always get ats triple crown horse racing package.will post them for ya-for all that ya do ! thanks volsfan

[IN THE ZONE]

they can win you a dime a week cuz when you are down 5 dimes through the week they put out a GOY for 6 dimes and hope and prays that it wins. Jeez I think that I may have heard of this type of marketing scam before but I could be wrong.

:christmas

ALL BULLSHIT

[OleBlueEyes]

Rocketman Sports: 2* LA Lakers +10.5

OBE

[Topplayer]

Gilg

Gilg

Mike Godsey and Godspicks is the same service.



UOTE=gilg]Where can I find GodsPicks?
Is that same as Mike Godsey?[/QUOTE]

[ukfan]

mike godsey is with gods picks gilg! they are the best service! only one id ever trust!

[patriots]

Boy do you like Big Al. I have given you 3 for 3 in my picks. I am not sure you took em but 3 for 3 is not bad, IllGaunt. You want a winner for tonight? IF so just ask. Peace and good luck!

[OleBlueEyes]

anyone mention that Big Gay Al SUCKS and loses every year in every sport? I guess not!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Gotta love that Marc Lawrence/Lenny Stevens/Big Gay Al mystique! Wish I had a job where I could SUCK ASS FOR YEARS UPON END AND STILL GET PAID BIG EVERY YEAR!

OBE

[wacco]

Ted Servansky:
USC
Kyle Baugues:
POW =USC
NBA:
Knicks
Lakers
CBB:
Richmond
Wyoming
Lonestar Sports: (new guy trying to build a service...will be giving away his picks until he builds a reputation)
went 3-1 last night
10* on OU

Didn't LONESTAR have VT last night ? I "thought" that is what I saw.

[runninhorn]

Anyone Have Godspicks Card? They Are 18-2-1 In Hoops! No Shit!

GODSPICKS=SUCKS

[wacco]

Jeff BENTON'S 1,000,000 * Bowl Game BLOWOUT goes tonight ! Post if found.

Thanks.

[tinfw17]

JB Sports & Others

Confirmed as always!

Billy Coleman
4* NJ
3.5* NY
3* Minn

Great Lake Sports
4* Minn

JB Sports
2* Sac

college FB
USC / OK Under 53

Stan Lisowski
3* San Francisco -pts over Penn

Good Luck!!!!!!!

[cardsn7]

Dr Bob - Orange Bowl

Orange Bowl - Jan 4
USC (-3.0) 24 Oklahoma 20
I have considered USC to be considerably better than Oklahoma for most of this season, but the Sooners upgraded their defense when the took the red shirt off highly touted freshman CB Marcus Walker during their near upset loss to Texas A&M, replacing the secondary’s weak link, Eric Bassey, who is now the nickel back. Walker, and the return to healthy of Antonio Perkins gives the Sooners two shutdown cornerbacks to go along with two great safeties and Oklahoma’s defense allowed only 61 passing yards at 2.5 yards per pass play in 3 games with Walker starting opposite of Perkins (who missed their game against Oklahoma State in which they gave up 8.7 yppp). Granted, shutting down Nebraska, Baylor and Colorado, who would combine to average just 5.8 yppp against an average defense is not clear cut evidence that Oklahoma now has an impenetrable pass defense, but it is enough evidence to suggest that they are even better than their very good season rating of 1.5 yppp better than average. I can go as far as to now rate the Sooners at 2.1 yppp better than average against the pass, but they could be even better than that. That’s still not as good as a USC pass defense that allowed just 4.4 yppp this season despite facing a schedule loaded with good passing teams that would combine to average 7.0 yppp against an average defense. Oklahoma does defend the run better than the Trojans, as the Sooners would allow just 3.6 yards per rushing play to an average offense while USC would allow 3.8 yprp. Overall, I rate USC’s defense as 0.1 yards per play better than Oklahoma’s defense now that the Sooners have improved their pass defense. USC also has a 0.1 yppl advantage offensively, but that’s just because the Sooners run the ball more. These teams are incredibly similar offensively, as USC’s compensated run average is 5.57 yprp while Oklahoma’s is 5.52. The pass attacks, with Leinart and White in the game, rate at 8.20 yppp for the Trojans and 8.30 yppp for Oklahoma. With the offenses and defenses so equal, this game will probably come down to special teams and turnovers, of which USC has the advantage in both counts. Both teams have good kick returners, especially now that Perkins is healthy again for Oklahoma, but Reggie Bush rates and edge in that regard and USC’s bad kicker (-0.5 points per game) is actually better than Oklahoma’s bad kicker, who rates at -1.2 points per game and made just 2 of 10 kicks from 30 yards or longer. Overall, the Trojans have a 1.1 points edge in special teams and a 1.3 points edge in projected turnovers, and my math model favors USC by 3.3 points (and 47.7 total points) after making the proper adjustments (most notably for Oklahoma’s improved secondary).

That model uses all games, but I also like to do a profile analysis in games like this, to see how each team played against teams of similar caliber. USC’s offense rates at 1.4 yppl better than average, but the Trojans were just 1.0 yppl better than average against the 3 very good defensive teams that they faced this season, averaging 5.3 yppl against Virginia Tech, Cal, and Oregon State (who would combine to allow 4.3 yppl to an average offense). Oklahoma’s defense, meanwhile, played all of their good offensive opponent’s before Walker was inserted into the starting lineup, so I’ll use those games to compare their overall defense to their defense in games against good offensive teams. Prior to Walker, the Sooners’ defense was 1.1 yppl better than average and they were also 1.1 yppl better than average against the 5 good offensive teams that they faced, allowing 5.3 yppl to Bowling Green, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas, and Texas A&M (who would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defense. The net of all of that analysis suggests the USC would perform at 0.4 yppl worse offensively if both teams perform at the level they played at against teams with similar offensive/defensive credentials as what they are facing in this game.

Oklahoma’s offense didn’t face a defense anywhere close to the level of USC, but they averaged only 5.6 yppl against the best 3 defensive teams that they faced this season – Texas A&M, Texas, and Texas Tech (who would combine to allow 4.6 yppp to an average offense). So, the Sooners’ attack, which is 1.3 yppl better than average for the season, was only 1.0 yppl better than average against very good defensive teams. USC’s defense, which was great in general (1.7 yppl better than average), was even better against very good offensive teams, limiting Cal, Arizona State, and UCLA to a combined 4.8 yppl – which is 2.1 yppl less than the 6.9 yppl that those explosive offensive teams would combine for against an average defensive team. The difference between the overall ratings and the ratings against similarly good competition is 0.7 yppl in favor of USC’s defense, and the Trojans would be favored by 5 ½ points with a total of 41 ½ points using the profile analysis.

There are situations favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll call for a predicted score that’s between the math using all games and the profile analysis. Thus, I have no opinion on the side (USC’s chance of covering at -3 is less than the 52.3% break-even point), but I will consider the Under a Strong Opinion since both defenses have an edge over their offensive counterparts and both teams had a tendency to play lower scoring games against quality competition. USC played 4 games against teams that were good on both offense and defense and they averaged only 44 points in those games against Virginia Tech, Cal, Arizona State, and Oregon State. Oklahoma, meanwhile, played 4 games against teams that were better than average on both offense and defense and they averaged a total of just 42 points in those games against Oregon, Texas Tech, Texas, and Texas A&M. And, games against the best overall team each team faced went well under the total, as USC-Cal totaled just 40 points and went Under the 57 ½ point total and Oklahoma-Texas was a 12-0 final score in a game in which the total was 53 ½ points.