Saturday's Service Plays Thread

[KCStar]

psychic sports

if anyone cares, hasn't been doing very well lately-

NFL Football
5 Units on New York Giants [+11 -110]
WISE GUY

3 Units on Carolina Panthers [O 42 -110]

NBA Basketball
2 Units on Indiana Pacers [+4.5 -110]

NCAA Basketball
5 Units on Illinois Chicago [+5.5 -110]
WISE GUY

1 Unit on Wake Forest [-6 -110]

2 Units on Tulsa [+5 -110]

[SPClan]

Does anybody have Tally's pick or Brian Gabrielle.
Thanks in advance!

Dr.Bob
Star Selection
****DETROIT 30 Minnesota (-3.0) 20
The Vikings are just 2-5 in their last 7 games, bringing back
memories of last year's collapse from a 6-0 start. I expect the
downward trend to continue today in Detroit against an improving
Lions team that is good defensively (5.0 yards per play allowed to
teams that average 5.4 yppl on offense) and now has an offensive
identity with rookie Kevin Jones averaging 176 rushing yards the
last two weeks and averaging 126 yards at 5.8 ypr in the Lions'
last 5 games. I still rate the Lions' offense at 0.3 yppl worse
than average but the Vikings are 0.5 yppl worse than average
defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.3 yppl on
offense) and they can't defend the run, allowing 4.9 ypr for the
season and giving up 5.4 ypr 4 weeks ago in a narrow 22-19 home
win over the Lions. Randy Moss did not play in that previous
meeting, returning to the lineup the next week, but the Vikings'
offense hasn't returned to their early season form in 3 games
since Moss' return, as they've averaged 6.1 yppl in the last 3
weeks (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl), which is actually
slightly worse than they rate offensively for the season (6.4 yppl
against teams that allow 5.4 yppl). Detroit's defense is capable
of slowing that attack down and my math model favors the Lions by
½ a point in this game after adding in Detroit's advantage in
special teams (1.6 points even without return stud Drummond),
projected turnovers (Harrington's thrown just 8 interceptions and
the Vikings have picked off just 7 passes all season), and home
field. I did notice that Moss seemed back to full speed last week
and I used the Vikings' pass rating for that game in my model,
which is a 0.5 yards per pass play addition. I don't think that
Culpepper is likely to get on the sort of roll he was on early in
the season when Moss was healthy, but I decided to see what the
math would look like if he averaged the incredible 8.7 yppp in
those first 4 ½ games and last week (the games when Moss was
healthy). If I assume that Moss is completely healthy and that
Culpepper's passing numbers return to their early season all-world
status then the math model would favor the Vikings by 1 ½ points
in this game, which is still giving line value to Detroit. The
reason for the strong play is a negative 11-48 ATS subset of a
27-84 ATS road favorite angle that applies to Minnesota and an
incredible 57-14-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors
Detroit. That statistical match-up indicator deals with the
ability of a team to run the ball and defend against a team that
doesn't defend the run well and that is certainly what we have
here. Rarely does a game have such a strong situation and a strong
fundamental indicator favoring the same side and those angles
combine with the line value to give Detroit a 65.8% chance of
covering at +3 points, which is good enough to make the Lions a
4-Star Best Bet. The Vikings are also only 4-8 ATS as a road
favorite the last 4 years and one of those ****** came on an
overtime TD as a 4 point favorite (at Houston earlier this
season), so they should be 3-9 ATS in that role. I'll take Detroit
for 4- Stars at +3 points or more.

Downgrade Detroit to a 3-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog
of less than 3 points.

3 Star Selection
***KANSAS CITY 30 Denver (-1.0) 22
The Chiefs are coming off an exciting comeback win on Monday night
at Tennessee and that win sets them up in a 49-18 ATS home
momentum situation. The Broncos, meanwhile, apply to a negative
23-59-3 ATS situation that is based on their not-so-impressive
20-17 home win over Miami last week. Kansas City is really in a
strong technical spot if they are an underdog, as an 84-27 ATS
home underdog situation and a 48-11 ATS subset of that angle also would apply. Denver has been an inconsistent team since John Elway retired, as they are now 16-29-1 ATS in the next week following a victory, including 4-16-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.
I'm not going to argue the merits of taking Kansas City based on
fundamental match-ups, but the line is fair since my math model
also favors the Broncos by 1 point in this game. I'll take Kansas City in a Best Bet at -1 point or better and make them a 3-Star if
they are an underdog.

Downgrade Kansas City to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are pick or -1
point.

2 Star Selection
**NY JETS (-6.0) 33 Seattle 19
I also make the OVER a Strong Opinion
Seattle was in a good spot last week and they came through with an upset win against a defensively challenged Vikings team. However, the Seahawks are not in a good situation this week against a Jets'
team that is due to bounce-back from last week's 6-17 loss in
Pittsburgh. Teams with winning records are 41-17-2 ATS as a home
favorite of 3 points or more after scoring less than 7 points in a
loss the previous week (won with Atlanta last week) and my math
model clearly favors the Jets in this game. Seattle's better than
average attack (5.6 yards per play against teams that combine to
allow 5.3 yppl on defense for the season) stacks up pretty well
against a mediocre Jets' defense that has only allowed 4.8 yppl
this season, but has faced teams that combine to average only 4.8 yppl on offense. However, the Seahawks' are a bad defensive teams
when star defensive lineman Grant Wistrom is out of the lineup.
Seattle has allowed only 5.0 yppl in 8 games with Wistrom, but
that unit has surrendered 5.7 yppl in 5 games without Wistrom
(against teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense) and
Wistrom is through for the rest of the regular season with an
injured knee. The lack of a pass rush forces Seattle to blitz more
and that will backfire on them against a very efficient Chad
Pennington, who rarely gets sacked (only 9 this year) and makes
the proper reads. Seattle has allowed 4.6 ypr and 6.6 yards per
pass play without Wistrom, so New York's versatile and well
balanced offense (4.5 ypr and Pennington averages 6.9 yppp) should
have no trouble moving the football in this game. The Seahawks
have allowed an average of 27.6 points in their last 10 games and
the Jets are a good offensive team with Pennington back at
quarterback (0.5 yppl better than average). My math model favors
the Jets by 11 points in this game with a total of 52 points and
I'll lay 7 points or less with New York in a 2-Star Best Bet while considering the OVER a Strong Opinion (58% chance of going over 41
points).

Downgrade New York to a Strong Opinion if they become a favorite
of more than 7 points.

2 Star Selection
**CLEVELAND 17 San Diego (-10.0) 20
Cleveland looked horrible on offense last week, compiling just 17 total yards in their 7- 37 loss to the Bills, the 5th lowest total
yards in the history of the NFL. Try not to overreact to that
display, as the Browns had a rookie quarterback making his first
career start against one of the best defensive units in the NFL.
McCown has averaged just 3.5 yards per pass play in his two starts
(against teams that allow a combined 5.4 yppp on defense ?
Buffalo's defense adjusted for games with Milloy), but plugging
his compensated passing numbers into the math model results in a
fair line of San Diego by 9 ½ points and McCown looked much more
comfortable at home in his first start when he was 20 of 34 for
277 yards against the Patriots two weeks ago. The Chargers'
defense is not too intimidating, allowing 5.4 yards per play to
teams that combine to average 5.5 yppl on offense, so McCown
should post less pathetic numbers (my math model forecasts 4.1
yppp in this game, which is still bad). I must commend the Browns'
spirit, as they continue to play hard for interim coach Terry
Robiskie, as their defense has allowed only 4.9 yppl in the last 2 games (against teams that combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense).
If I used Cleveland's compensated numbers in their last 2 games,
both offensively and defensively, against San Diego's season
numbers, the math model would favor the Chargers by 10 ½ points ?
so the line is fair regardless of how bad McCown was last week. A fair line is all that is needed for Cleveland to be worth a play,
as San Diego applies to a negative 126-209-7 ATS road favorite
letdown situation and a 50-121-8 ATS statistical indicator. I
realize that is must be tough to play on a Cleveland team riding
an 0-6 straight up and ATS streak, but teams that have lost 5 or
more consecutive games and have a win percentage of .250 or less
are actually 89-41-3 ATS as underdogs or picks since 1994. San
Diego hasn't been nearly as good away from home this season,
especially on offense (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.6 yppl
on defense), while the Browns continue to play very well
defensively at home ? allowing only 4.7 yppl here to teams that
combine to average 5.2 yppl on offense for the season (and they've
given up 4.7 yppl or less in 5 of their 7 home games). I'll take
10 points or more with Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet.

Downgrade Cleveland to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog
of less than 10 points.

Strong Opinion
NY GIANTS 16 Pittsburgh (-10.0) 20
Sometimes the best bets are the ones that are toughest to make,
and playing on the Giants with Eli Manning at quarterback can make anyone queasy. New York's offense has been horrible since Manning took over as the starting quarterback, scoring an average of just
9 points in those 4 games while Manning has averaged a pathetic
3.8 yards per pass play. Manning has faced 4 teams that defend the pass well, combining to allow only 5.2 yppp on defense, and teams
have started to crowd the line to stop the run and force Manning
to throw the ball. Pittsburgh's defense has yielded only 4.6 yards
per play this season (to teams that allow 5.1 yppl), but that's
about as good as what Manning has seen against the 4 other teams
he's faced this season. I don't expect New York to move the ball
very well in this game either, but the Steelers are due for a
letdown. Pittsburgh qualifies in a negative 50-121-8 ATS contrary indicator and road favorites of 10 points or more are just 16-33-2
ATS if they have a win percentage of greater than .750 and are
coming off a win. Pittsburgh is certainly not explosive
offensively, averaging just 5.0 yppl (against teams that combine
to allow 5.1 yppl on defense) since Ben Roethlisberger became the starting quarterback in week 3, and the Giants' defense is decent
(5.1 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.1 yppl), so I can
certainly see the Giants staying within the double-digit
pointspread. My math model, in fact, only favors the Steelers by 9 points. With the technical analysis solidly in favor the Giants, I
expect the less than stellar effort from the Steelers, who could
be caught looking ahead a bit to their meeting with division rival
Baltimore next week. The Giants have a solid 56.7% chance of
covering at the current line of +10 points and that's good enough
to make them a Strong Opinion in this game.

Strong Opinion
ATLANTA (-3.5) 24 Carolina 14
I must commend Carolina on their 5 game win streak that has
catapulted them from 1-7 to a playoff spot (if the playoffs
started this week), but the Panthers' 6 wins this season have all come against teams that currently have losing records. Carolina is
0-5 straight up, with an average score of 11.0-23.6 against teams
that currently have winning records, including a 10-27 home loss
to the Falcons. Carolina's win streak also sets them up in a very negative 9-38-1 ATS road letdown situation while the Falcons apply to a 179-83-11 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Carolina is an
average team from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.2 yards per
play worse than average on offense (5.3 yppl against teams that
combine to allow 5.5 yppl on defense) and 0.2 yppl better than
average defensively (5.2 yppl against teams that average 5.4 yppl
on offense). The Falcons, meanwhile, have averaged 5.4 yppl on
offense (against teams that allow a combined 5.3 yppl) and they've
allowed 5.2 yppl on defense to teams that average 5.3 yppl on
offense. Atlanta will be about 0.1 yppl worse without the
contributions of RB T.J. Duckett, whose 4.8 ypr is better than
Warrick Dunn's 4.1 ypr, but the Falcons are significantly better
than their season numbers with Rod Coleman manning the defensive
line. Coleman is playing at an All-Pro caliber and the Falcons
couldn't generate a pass rush in the 3 games he missed this
season, recording just 1 sack total in those 3 games and an
average of 3.5 sacks in the 10 games he has played. In those 10
games with Coleman, the Falcons have yielded only 4.6 yppl (to
teams that combine to average 5.0 yppl on offense), so they have
an overall advantage of 0.4 yppl from the line of scrimmage in
this game (about 2 ½ points). Atlanta also has a 2.6 points edge
in special teams and they're at home, and my math model favors the
Falcons by 7 ½ points in this game. I'm wary of Carolina's 14-2
ATS mark as an underdog the last couple of years, but I'm willing to lay 3 points or less with the Falcons in a 2-Star Best Bet and
consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion if they're favored by 3 ½ or 4
points.

Upgrade Atlanta to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 3
points or less.

Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI (pick) 23 Buffalo 17
The loss of Carson Palmer will not hurt a surging Bengals' offense that has averaged 478 total yards at 7.5 yards per play the last 3
weeks. Palmer has averaged 6.0 yards per pass play this season,
which is 0.2 yppp better than what the Bengals' opponents normally allow (5.8 yppp). Kitna was the starting quarterback in Cincy the last two years and he averaged 6.0 yppp against teams that combine
to allow 5.7 yppp on defense, which is 0.3 yppp better than
average. Kitna also throws less interceptions, so the Bengals'
offense shouldn't be affected negatively by Palmer's absence.
Buffalo's defense has been extremely good since All-Pro safety
Lawyer Milloy came off the injured list in week 7, as the Bills
have yielded only 4.0 yards per play since then (against teams
that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense). Cincinnati's offense
is 0.4 yppl better than average for the season (5.3 yppl against
teams that allow 4.9 yppl), so it won't be easy to score against
the Bills. Buffalo's offense has been pretty good since Willis
McGahee took over as the starting tailback in week 6. The rushing
numbers have not improved, but teams are forced to pay more
attention to the run and Drew Bledsoe's numbers have gotten better with McGahee in the backfield. The Bills are still 0.2 yppl worse
than average in those 9 games (4.9 yppl against teams that allow
5.1 yppl on defense), but that unit is better than a Cincinnati
defense that's 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl allowed to
teams that average 4.9 yppl on offense). My math model favors
Buffalo by 2 ½ points in this game, but the Bills are not likely
to be at their best today. Buffalo applies to a negative 65-111-7 ATS non-division road letdown situation and Cincinnati would apply
to a very good 84-27 ATS late season home underdog angle if they
are an underdog (and a 48-11 ATS subset would also apply). If
Cincinnati is an underdog, they would be worthy of a 2- Star Best
Bet based on the strong situation that would apply, but I'd
consider the Bengals just an opinion at pick or favored.

Upgrade Cincinnati to a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

[Spark]

Nsa 20* Panthers

[Spark]

Manager .. Big Plays On Steelers... Kansas ...e.wash

[Max Power]

Dr Bob Baskets?

Anyone have DR Bob 2 daytime best bets? Thanks

[Parrot]

Rob Veno

Anyone have Rob Veno's over/under picks?

Thanks

[Viper]

Bronx Bomber

Double play on Wash NBA & Under Phoenix
Single play on Illinois St.

[LookingToCover]

Donnie Black NFL GOY

He is 12-3 on these picks this year....anyone have it?

[Spark]

Not Confirmed ... Diff Site ....


C-star--top Play--under 49ers
Big Al--tv Winner--marouette
Right Angle--1 Units--louisville--oregon--loy Marymount
Scott Spreitzer--****** Plays--spurs--evansville--kentucky--xavier
Jim Feist--5*celtics--4*nuggets--elite--utep
Doc--4 Unit--carolina
Lenny Stevens--20*carolina
Pacific Star--5 Unit Gom--carolina
Marc Lawrence--double Perfect--under Falcons--49ers
Mike Rose--best Bet--redskins
Special K--20*wake Forest--15*geo Tech
Wayne Root--millionaire--gioants--b-d--falcons
Ats Lock Club--8 Units--new Mexico--7 Units--wake Forest--unlv
Mike Lee--8%carolina
Professor--5*under Falcons
Carolina Sports--4*falcons
Dr Bob--3*ohio U
Joe Gavazzi--4%usc--utah St--new Mexico--bradley
Beat Bet Sports--steelers
Coaches Corner--top Plays--un Falcons--un Redskins
Captain--20*best Bet--steelers
Power Plays--top Play--49ers
Total Edge--top Plays--ov Giants--un Falcons
Frank Magliosa--1.5 Units--over Steelers

[seaofred]

please cut the big write ups on these threads it takes up all the good space for people waiting for service plays,and im also still waiting for 3gwins gom hoops play and triple crown sports hoops plays and chrimimbes megabucks nfl play for today.


thanks seaofred

[OleBlueEyes]

Dr Bob Baskets:

3* Louisville

3* Ohio U

OBE

[GoBrownies]

The Buckeye Report's full card

Atlanta -3 or -3.5 : 5 Units
Giants +10.5 : 3 Units
Atlanta Under 42 : 2 Units

Oklahoma/Duke Under 140 : 5 Units
Ohio U -6.5 : 5 Units
Marquette -1 : 3 Units
Kentucky +5 : 3 Units
Va Commonwealth -13.5 : 3 Units

[Superseanspicks]

Anyone have

plays from Great Lake, Jb Sports or Billy Coleman that would be nice...Thanks and GL

[Blackbeard]

please cut the big write ups on these threads it takes up all the good space for people waiting for service plays,and im also still waiting for 3gwins gom hoops play and triple crown sports hoops plays and chrimimbes megabucks nfl play for today.


thanks seaofred

Please keep the writeups, sorry seaofred, but they are useful

[DaSportsGuru]

The real animal

Anyone hve the real animals card for today