Blacksheet: Bowl Selections

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From The Sports Network

By Scott Haynes, College Football Senior Editor

GAME NOTES: The BCS National Championship is up for grabs, as the second- ranked Oklahoma Sooner and the top-ranked USC Trojans battle it out at Pro Player Stadium in Miami, Florida in the 71st annual Orange Bowl. This is the second straight season that Oklahoma has played in the BCS title game, with the Sooners coming out on the wrong end of a 21-14 decision to LSU last year in the Sugar Bowl. Bob Stoops' team has put that loss behind them with a stellar 12-0 record this season, capped off with a 42-3 spanking of Colorado in this year's Big 12 title game. The Trojans captured a piece of the national title last season, as they doubled up on Michigan, 28-14 in the Rose Bowl. Pete Carroll's team was bypassed for last year's BCS title game in a bit of a controversy, making this trip to the Orange Bowl that much sweeter. The Trojans are also a perfect 12-0 on the season, with impressive wins of the likes of Virginia Tech, Arizona State and Notre Dame along the way. Oklahoma is in search of its eighth national championship, having won its last in the 2001 Orange Bowl, with a 13-2 win over Florida State. In all, OU is 23-13-1 in postseason affairs, including a 12-5 mark in the Orange Bowl. The Trojans are 27-15 in postseason tilts, and were victorious in their only other appearance in the Orange Bowl, routing Iowa in 2003 by a score of 38-17. USC holds a 5-2-1 advantage in the series with Oklahoma, including wins in each of the last four meetings. However, these two teams haven't met since September 19, 1992, a 20-10 USC win in Norman.

The Sooners will certainly test the vaunted USC defense right from the opening kickoff. Bob Stoops has the luxury of a devastating rushing attack, coupled with an efficient Heisman Trophy winner under center to control things through the air. The results have been amazing, with Oklahoma averaging 36.1 ppg this year, on 469.6 yards per game. The ground game, led by a surprise Heisman candidate in freshman tailback Adrian Peterson, averaged 215.1 yards per game this year, on almost five yards per carry (4.9). Peterson was terrific in his first season in Norman, rumbling for 1,843 yards and 15 TDs. The youngster averaged nearly six yards per carry (5.9) and over 150 yards per game (153.6). Senior quarterback Jason White won the Heisman last season and almost pulled off the trick again in 2004, as he completed 65.3 percent of his passes, for 2,961 yards and 33 TDs. In 354 pass attempts, White only threw six interceptions and finished the regular season with a pass efficiency rating of 162.89 (sixth in the nation). White has a number of targets at his disposal, with his favorites being wideouts Mark Clayton (62 receptions, for 855 yards and eight TDs) and Travis Wilson (43 receptions, for 601 yards and nine scores).

The Sooners are far from a one-dimensional team, as the defense has been every bit as good as the offense this season. Oklahoma allowed just 13.7 ppg (fifth nationally) this year, on a mere 280.2 yards of total offense per outing (ninth nationally). The rush defense has been particularly stout, yielding just 86.4 yards per game (fifth nationally), on 2.8 yards per carry. This is an aggressive unit that likes to get upfield and disrupt things. The team has amassed 96 TFLs and 38 sacks in the regular season. Leading the way in those categories were senior ends Dan Cody (team-high 15 TFLs and nine sacks) and Jonathan Jackson (10 TFLs, eight sacks) and sophomore end Larry Birdine (11 TFLs, seven sacks). Junior safety Brodney Pool led the team in tackles in 2004 (85), not to mention interceptions (two). Senior linebacker Lance Mitchell is one of the nation's premiere LBs, finishing second on the team with 72 total tackles, while collecting 10 TFLs, two sacks and two fumble recoveries.

As tough as Oklahoma's defense has been this season, the Sooners will be facing their stiffest challenge to date, as USC has all the necessary weapons to give OU fits in this game. This is another team with great offensive balance, averaging 442.8 yards per game. The ground game is netting 176.1 yards per game (4.5 yards per carry), but it is the passing game which leads the way for the Trojans. It all starts with Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart, who capped off a brilliant junior season with the coveted piece of hardware. Leinart leads a passing attack that generates 266.7 yards per game. Leinart has completed 66.6 percent of his passes in 2004, for 2,990 yards and 28 TDs. Freshman sensation Dwayne Jarrett stepped up his play in the absence of Mike Williams (ruled ineligible to return to the team) and fellow youngster Steve Smith (broken leg early on). Jarrett finished the year with sensational numbers, leading the team in receptions (50), receiving yards (734) and TDs (12). Tailback Reggie Bush made his own case for the Heisman this year, as the nation's most dangerous offensive player. Bush rushed for 833 yards and six TDs, while hauling in 41 receptions, for 478 yards and another seven TDs. Bush split the carries this year with fellow tailback LenDale White, who managed to churn out 985 yards and 13 scores on the ground.

Just like the Sooners, USC has plenty of talent on both sides of the football. The Trojans ranked second in the country in scoring defense this year, allowing a meager 12.5 ppg. While the pass defense gave up some yards (196.2 ypg), that was due in large part to the futility teams met trying to run the football. USC allowed just 2.6 yards per carry this season and 75.3 yards per game on the ground (second in the nation). This unit is chock-full of All- American talent, starting with Butkus Award finalist Matt Grootegoed, who finished second on the team in tackles (61) and first in interceptions (four). Fellow linebacker Lofa Tatupa led the team in stops (92), with 13.0 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, three interceptions and two fumble recoveries. This is another defense that likes to put the pressure on upfield. USC registered 113 TFLs and 48 sacks in the regular season. Perhaps the nation's top defensive line resides in Southern California, led by end Shaun Cody (12 TFLs, team-high nine sacks) and tackle Mike Patterson (team-high 16 TFLs and eight sacks). Freshman Lawrence Jackson has been the immediate recipient of the attention paid to Cody and Patterson, as the first-year end finished with 11 TFLs and six sacks this season. Sophomore safety Darnell Bing (53 tackles, 6.5 TFLs and two INTs) had a strong season as well and is the future of the USC secondary.

This is the matchup that the college football world wanted to see and now they get it. Two prolific offenses and two staunch defensive units will collide, further heightening expectations. USC won a share of the national title a year ago and it remains to be seen just how hungry Pete Carroll's troops are. Oklahoma lost in the title game a year ago and would like to exact some revenge here. The Sooners will find a way to get the job done this time around, although it certainly won't come easy.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Oklahoma 27, USC 24

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msnbc

No. 1 USC (12-0)
vs.
No. 2 Oklahoma (12-0)

Date: Jan. 4

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Location: Miami

Television: ABC

Payout: $11-14 million

Last result: Miami, Fla. 16, Florida State 14

Bowl history/last appearance: USC 27-15 (won 28-14 over Michigan in 2004 Rose); Oklahoma 23-13-1 (lost 21-14 to LSU in 2004 Sugar)

Series: USC leads 5-2-1 (USC 40-14 in '64, 28-24 in '81, 12-0 in '82, 23-7 in '88, 20-10 in '92; Oklahoma 17-12 in '63, 33-20 in '71; Tie 7-7 in '73)

2004 results: USC; Oklahoma

2004 statistics: USC; Oklahoma

Coaches: Pete Carroll (USC); Bob Stoops (Oklahoma)

What USC has to do to win: The Trojans have an LSU frame of mind when it comes to pressuring the quarterback and we remember what the Tigers did to Jason White in the Sugar Bowl last year. But this time the Sooners have freshman running back Adrian Peterson and USC better be careful with pressure because Peterson will torch them. USC might be reduced to blitzes on obvious passing downs.

USC is not going to let Peterson beat them. It is going to get seven on the line, double wideout Mark Clayton and make White complete 15-to-20 yard passes over the drawn-up linebackers.

The other thing the Trojans have to do is get their receivers off the line. I remember Oklahoma, when it had to deal with Florida State’s receivers in the national title game in 2000, the Sooners got up close on the FSU wideouts and tried to be intimidating. Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Matt Leinart is going to have to make some precision throws against tight coverage.

What Oklahoma has to do to win: Finesse USC early. The Trojans defense is fast to the ball and will be geared at the line to stop Peterson. White needs to throw on the early down and make the Trojans back off and respect the pass. USC cannot afford to let Peterson get established because then they will be caught between defensing the run or looking for the pass.

White won’t get the same pressure he faced last year in the Sugar Bowl. The Sooners have to make sure their special teams are ready because USC’s Reggie Bush can make plays on the return.

Opening point spread: USC by 3.

Prediction: USC, 27, Oklahoma 24

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SI.COM/stewart mandel

ORANGE BOWL
No. 1 USC (12-0) vs. No. 2 Oklahoma (12-0)
Two Heisman-winning quarterbacks. Two Heisman-finalist running backs. Two former national coaches of the year. Ten current AP All-Americans. There hasn't been this much star power in Miami since ... Saturday night in South Beach.
Oklahoma 24, Southern Cal 20

There are only about 127 different ways Tuesday's Orange Bowl could play out. Here's the one I foresee:

As is often the case with games of this magnitude, both teams will come out sloppy. There will be penalties. There will be missed assignments. There will be errant passes thrown by both Heisman-winning quarterbacks.

Once the teams settle down, though, Oklahoma's Jason White will get into a nice rhythm. With USC's defense focused on slowing down Adrian Peterson, White will use the play action to find open receivers underneath and start moving the ball down the field. The Sooners will take the lead early on before the Trojans make some adjustments to start getting more pressure on White.

Meanwhile, Matt Leinart will look to exploit Oklahoma's secondary early and often. For the most part, it won't work. But with the Trojans' defense holding the score down, all it will take is Leinart connecting on a couple long balls, perhaps to Dwayne Jarrett and Reggie Bush, to not only keep pace but eventually put USC ahead.

The game, however, will turn on the performances of the teams' respective running backs.

Peterson may be held down early on, but he's impossible to contain for an entire game. In fact, he gets stronger as it goes along. As he has in all of Oklahoma's biggest games this season, Peterson will eventually go off. The Trojans haven't faced an elite running back in nearly three months and will struggle with Peterson's physicality. Meanwhile, they will have trouble running the ball themselves on the Sooners. USC tailback LenDale White isn't fully healthy, and with a month to prepare Bob Stoops' staff will have a plan to contain Bush.

In a game as even as this one, you just have to go with your gut. Mine tells me Oklahoma will be playing with a fire cultivated by the heartbreak of last year's painful postseason collapse.

USC, meanwhile, has been living on Easy Street for much of the past two seasons. With Peterson further enhancing his budding legend with an epic title-game performance, the Sooners come from behind to win in a thriller, 24-20.

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SI.com/John Donovan

You take a piece of paper, see -- best, I think, to make it a legal pad -- and you draw a line down the middle, top to bottom. Oklahoma's plusses go on one side, Southern California's ("You Can't Call Me Cal") on the other. That's how you pick games. That's the scientific way.

Or you don't. In a game as close as this Orange Bowl, between two 12-0 teams with two Heisman-winning quarterbacks, two of the best running backs around and more hype and hysterics than any two national championships, the scientific route isn't the best way to go.

This is a game that will swing on intangibles, on emotions, on the one breakout play. Factors that can't be quantified.

Yeah, the Sooners have Adrian Peterson, an electrifying and powerful runner, the best in college ball. But the Trojans feature Reggie Bush, a thrilling runner, pass catcher and returner who may be the most entertaining player in the game.

The Heisman winners, OU's Jason White and USC's Matt Leinart, will figure in there somewhere. Then there is USC's defensive front and OU's wide receivers and ... well, forget the list. It's too close to call.

Here's the crux of it: Which team can pull off the amazing, the unexpected? Which team will find that one big play that coaches dream about? In short, which team has the kind of talent that can flip a dead-even game in its favor?

In my book, that team is USC.

In a game this tight, it helps to have multiple ways to score, and the multi-talented Bush is a multi-threat like no one else. Leinart is a bit more mobile than White, too, and getting out of the pocket will be critical. Plus, the USC defense is anchored by linemen and linebackers who have that most nebulous of skills -- pure, unadulterated desire.

Peterson is awesome. His ability alone is enough to win most games. But give me the superior talent. Give me unpredictability. Give me more ways to score.

Give me the Trojans, 27-20.