Everybody read

[leadhand]

Originally posted by ThomasC
frankb03,

That is probably the most intelligent post I have ever seen on any posting forum. Great advise and well thought out. Keep up the good work.

Ditto
if you are gonna cherry pick then ya might as well go to the Service thread and get all the concenses bull. It is no cut to any capper if he is not the one you follow. As Frankb said, choose who ya like to follow and stick with them thru thick and thin. You start to play everybody and ya get to many plays and to many conflicts, which can put you in a pick and choose situation. I personally am a live and die guy who sticks to his guns with whom I am following. Not gonna mention who I follow, cause that is my choice and has no disrespect for any of the others. If ya don't know how to lose, you will never ever know how to win, and it is not by any means easy weather you cap or follow. Be willing to lose, what you are willing to win. If ya can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.
Frankb, what a great post

[smooth53_98]

Stick with what you know works. I use a lot of angles, especially with racing, and in the long run, some are very profitable, but in the short term I can have a bad case of seconditis. I just stick with what I know works and play for the long haul, not the quick buck.

-smooth

[savage1]

Originally posted by frankb03
I have one other rule. It only applies to me and my personality.

I hardly ever watch the games I bet especially in basketball. Too much aggravation is the primary reason. I think some gamblers get emotional over their bets. They take losing a wager personally and insist it was solid capping and chase that team. I see that often with baseball.

The opposite also happens. The player is pissed by the way their team lost their wager and regardless of their next game or situation they play against the team.

Frank-As a gambler for many years I absolutely loved the advice you gave.
I agree with you re:basketball;I usually don't watch games I bet on except to get the periodic scores as the fluctuations and all the scoring make me nervous(I love to watch basketball IF it is a game on which I do not have a bet expecially college basketbal).
You and I both know what will happen to bigtime teaser players if they play them long enough;it sort of reminds me of Don Meredith singing "So long, the party's over."

[bilbal]

1 star plays = 1.75% of my bankroll
5 star plays = 1.75% of my bankroll
10 star plays = 1.75% of my bankroll
100 star plays = 1.75% of my bankroll
play of the year = 1.75% of my bankroll
play of the decade = 1.75% of my bankroll
play of the century = 1.75% of my bankroll
play of a lifetime = 1.75% of my bankroll
Lock of the millenium = 1.75% of my bankroll
Super Duper Blow Your Load Empty Your Account Titanium Lock of the Eon = 1.75% of my bankroll

[frankb03]

Originally posted by bilbal
1 star plays = 1.75% of my bankroll
5 star plays = 1.75% of my bankroll
10 star plays = 1.75% of my bankroll
100 star plays = 1.75% of my bankroll
play of the year = 1.75% of my bankroll
play of the decade = 1.75% of my bankroll
play of the century = 1.75% of my bankroll
play of a lifetime = 1.75% of my bankroll
Lock of the millenium = 1.75% of my bankroll
Super Duper Blow Your Load Empty Your Account Titanium Lock of the Eon = 1.75% of my bankroll

Great reply! I couldn't agree more.

[Spark]

1. Not knowing what it takes to be a winner.
Being driven by unreality and false hopes. It takes 52.38% winners to break even. Seasoned pros understand that at least 50% of all pointspread decisions are decided by serendipity?a random stroke of good or bad fortune. Respect, even fear, the Luck Factor. Be satisfied with anything around 60% winners and be grateful for anything above it.

2. Being undisciplined in managing your money.
Letting losses depress or immobilize you; impulsively forcing the action in an irrational way. You?re not going to be a winner with foolish money management. There?s no such thing as the law of averages in sports betting. Never bet more than twice your normal play no matter how promising a game may look. Trying to get even (e.g., on a Monday night) can be a curse. View the handicapping exercise as you would a 12-round fight. You?re not going to win every round; it?s the overall final decision that counts. Establish a steady pattern of play. Remember, if you play too fast, you can?t last. And if you play too slow, you gotta? go. Moderation is the key. Just like in life itself.

3. Lacking patience.
Failing to look for every edge, both in the pointspread dissection and the current up-to-date assessment of the teams. Shop for the best prices on each game. A half-point here and a point there is often the difference between a winning or losing season. Don?t play bad numbers. If you?re dealing with only one source, you?re going to be at a disadvantage. Don?t overreact to injury reports, especially those involving high-profile players. The pointspread will usually reflect the news by the time you hear it. And besides, good teams often compensate while the opposition may become overconfident.

4. Failing to set priorities.
Refusing to properly and intelligently identify the most important handicapping factors; the tendency to be distracted by insignificant items or unverified reports. Compare the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of both teams. Analyze the match-ups with respect to what each team must do to defeat the other. Reflect upon whatever psychological elements might exist to give one team a decisive motivational advantage. Don?t try to ?Einstein? the game or imitate Freud. Avoid being obsessed with playing favorites. Remember, you can usually find five times as many reasons to go with the favorite; it?s human nature. The sports handicapping exercise isn?t that complex. It often comes down to which team is superior and which is more highly motivated to win on that particular day.

5. Blindly following some groundless technical trend or falling for back-fitted numerical regressions.
A technical trend is meaningful only when it captures the essence of a team?s personality, character or chemistry. Or when it considers the nature of the sport itself. For instance, records based on particular conditions that remain constant are to be respected. But discard the casual coincidences. As English historian Arnold Toynbee said of the world?s vicissitudes, ?Life is a series of trendless fluctuations.?

6. Betting with your heart, not your head.
Bonding emotionally with your favorite teams. Don?t overreact to the most recent games or an impressive TV showing; they have little to do with a balanced, intelligent inquiry. Such performances are usually isolated efforts and may distort a more sensible appraisal. Few teams are really as good as they look in winning, or as bad as they look when losing. Don?t focus too much attention on the flamboyant qualities of a team. A tenacious, determined defense usually perseveres against a flashier, offense-minded opponent. Remember, offense sells tickets; defense wins games. Don?t be ?romanced? by getting extra points with bad teams. They?ll tease you at times, but seldom make you a winner. In fact, it?s not a bad strategy to be a contrarian and go against the ?conventional wisdom.? Another rule: when in doubt, take the points.

7. Falling for tips, wired games and other nonsense.
Tips are a dime a dozen, and you probably won?t find a single so-called wired game in your lifetime. During the course of a season there are all kinds of rumors circulating, often generated by those wanting to manipulate the pointspread for their own interests. If you are never influenced by these whispers and stick with proven disciplined handicapping basics, you?ll be money ahead. Anything really worthwhile is generally not going to be available to the public. And, even if it were, it would not make that much of a difference in the long term. There are more sins to avoid, but these should suffice for the time being.

[rwall]

Never LOVE a game.
Be versatile in your handicapping.
Accept constructive criticism.
re-Handicap games (especially Horse races) after a loss.
Remember you can't win them all
Remember you could be on the right side of a game and still lose.
Please have fun with it.

oh and whatever Frank said.

[frankb03]

Spark

I agree I think the sports player puts too much weight with injuries. Vegas adjusts the line. I've posted this many times. I saw an interview with a Vegas lines maker. He stated that an injury to a Shaq or Duncan type player they'll adjust the line up to 8 points. Secondly, IMO short-term, a team rallies as a team without their injured star. I like playing teams that have hi-profile injuries.

[Spark]

Re: Spark

Originally posted by frankb03
I agree I think the sports player puts too much weight with injuries. Vegas adjusts the line. I've posted this many times. I saw an interview with a Vegas lines maker. He stated that an injury to a Shaq or Duncan type player they'll adjust the line up to 8 points. Secondly, IMO short-term, a team rallies as a team without their injured star. I like playing teams that have hi-profile injuries.

Frank, I always play a team the first game their key player is out .. You get the best line plus, as you say, they rally around the substitute .. it is usually a good play .. Thanks Frank ,,

[spaarkie]

Listens guys


the bottom line is money management!!!!


true finding 1 or 2 cappers to follow is the best also...
but manage what you risk!!!

last year i was running alot of games anywhere from a 2 to 10 unit play ( 7 plays)..this year i went to my top 2-4 plays if i got a 10 ..5..3.. 2.. i only play the top ones10 and 5

or if no 10 * 5 and 3 and so on

i lost alot of profit by playing to many
be consistant
i play $100 per unit and last year if i would of stuck to the top plays my CBB would have been over 35g's instead i got 20

don't bounce...play a consistant $

either 2 10* and 1 5* don'tspread the amount out cuz when the big one loses and the little one wins you lost alot and it piles up even though you went 1-1 or 2-2 for the day week or so on

MONEY MANAGEMENT IS NUMBER 1


GL

[smooth53_98]

Record keeping. Only way to track your performance and look for key factors to change the way you approach a race/game/event. While I am a creature of habit, I have learned to be flexible and try to change as the game/races change!

-smooth

[The Lovedoc]

My Rules for gambling are as follows......

1.
2.
3.

I will fill them out later when i have time..

[Flipper]

Big factor for me when playing

Buy Back

For example tonight I won my first two games and have the over in the Kings game. Going to buy it back with the under and go to sleep 2-0 and not worry about gambling till tomorrow.

Phil

[fats12]

The cat on the Sopranos said it best, bet with your head not over it...Same amount every game, take the bad with the good stay with it, and in time it can be profitable....No job pays your entire check in one lump sum, take your time and you will be fine...If you average 75 bucks a night for 300 nights, you have 22500 in a year, that is a nice nut......

[phonepole]

My new one and only rule...
Bookmark this thread and read it every fucking time I feel like getting carried away, chasing a bad day or following a smooth talking fool who makes big promises...
Thanks illjaunt for starting this thread and all who contributed.... it's funny how much of myself i see in the mistakes you guys mentioned...... and it's great to see a thread we can all learn alot from.....

rule 1a.... if you see something in a game that gives you a strong gut feeling early, go with it, don't over-analyze or look for opposing points of view..

rule 1b... don't make financial investments in teams you have an emotional investment in...... for the most part, local ny teams have cost me a small fortune, I love the Mets long time but they have cost me alot, maybe even 2 or 3 pitches worth of Pay-dro's salary...