Tuesday's Service Plays Thread

[OleBlueEyes]

NO Bowl

Wayne Root Chairman Club Southern Miss

OBE

[patsgotgame]

NorthCoast?

Does anyone have NorthCoast New Orleans Bowl play? Thanks!!

[bet2win]

dr bob

looking for his 2 college best bets,please post. thanks again.

[wildrice]

tinfw17

Thank you for the Northcoast write up. I really appreciate that.

[clennon]

hey what exactly is this system?

I imagine it has something to do with fading road teams or picking the under when the road team is on a long roadtrip but is there any way you can provide some info on the particulars of this system SPARK?

Thanks!

Originally posted by SPARK
Let it Ride NBA Road System
Ok the system is up 12 units while LIR is on his cruise. The 6 possible trips all came in (Under and Side in each) after the Cavs/Grizzlies stayed under last night. We start two more trips tonite. Good luck

Minnesota -8.5 (1/5)
Minnesota/Portland Under 188 (1/5)
Dallas -10 (1/4)
Dallas/Golden State Under 201 (1/4)

[savage1]

Stu Feiner comp. (yeah-I admit I was bored, and that is ONLY reason for the call) is on Denver tonight.
He said he on his comp. line that on his 800 number he will murder your bookmaker with tonight's easy football winner.
I guess bookmakers around the country had better call their 911 phone numbers in order to avoid assuming room temperature.:D

[clennon]

FPBE COMPS

Marc Lawrence
PICK: New Jersey Nets (NBA)


Doc's Sports Service - (won 7 of 8)
PICK: Golden St. Warriors (NBA)


Ben Burns - (won 7 of 9: NFL 5 straight)
PICK: Lakers/Sonics OVER (NBA)


Bryan Leonard
PICK: Seattle Sonics (NBA)


Sports Unlimited
PICK: Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)


The Animal
PICK: North Texas/So Miss UNDER (CFB)


Special K Sports
PICK: St. Mary's (CBB)


Vegas Vic - (won 4 of 5)
PICK: Seattle Sonics (NBA)


Joe Gavazzi - (won 30 of 39 and 15 of 18 NFL)
PICK: Duke (CBB)


JB Sports
PICK: New Orleans Hornets (NBA)

[Ripple]

is this a service thread??

4 pages 2 service and trotters record ?? guys lets start posted service picks pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeee ...spark & trotter thanks ..for the picks and the service record

[AllNight]

Does anyone have Big Als bowl game selections? He has been the best in years past in these believe it or not.

[Spark]

Re: hey what exactly is this system?

Originally posted by clennon
I imagine it has something to do with fading road teams or picking the under when the road team is on a long roadtrip but is there any way you can provide some info on the particulars of this system SPARK?

Thanks!

NBA Road System by letitride
Every piece of information you'll ever need should be right here. First, the basic information:

Any NBA team that is going on a 3-game or longer road trip, bet against them and bet on the under. If they cover or the game goes over, double up your bet (that's where the bank to back it up comes in). Keep doubling until they don't cover and until you get a game that goes under. If they cover all games and/or all the games go over, end the series there. As soon as they don't cover and/or a game goes under, that ends the series as well.

FYI, the under and side bets are mutually exclusive and don't rely on each other. I just wanted to clarify that as my post looked a little confusing to me.


Now, to cover the rules:

Let's start with the system that we have been following all year on the board, the 5-game road trip. Bet against the road team and bet the under until you win, with these 5 NEVERS:
NEVER bet Dallas TOTALS
NEVER bet LA Lakers TOTALS
NEVER bet LA Clipper TOTALS
NEVER bet Memphis TOTALS
NEVER bet San Antonio SIDES
Since the 2000/01 season, we would have lost all 5 bets 4 times. On Laker totals twice, on Clipper totals once, and on Dallas totals once. The answer?...just don't bet 'em. While Memphis and San Antonio have never actually covered all 5 games, they have come close enough too many times for my comfort. Therefore, throw them out too. It never happened last year and hasn't happened this year yet, so let's hope that continues.

THE 4-GAME ROAD TRIP
Sorry I didn't post this yesterday, because Portland started a 4-game trip last night in Minny, and we all know what happened there. We got both bets. Anyway, exact same premise as the 5-gamer (bet against the road team and on the UNDER). All of the NEVERS have a trickle-down effect. Of course if it holds for a 5-game trip, it will hold for a 4 or 3-game trip also. So the NEVERS above hold for the 4-game trips too. In the last 3 1/2 season, we would have lost all 4 bets 14 times, including twice already this year (Utah sides and Laker totals). But since we aren't betting Laker totals, we only lost the cash once. The next 4-game trip doesn't start until January 14th (Toronto).

THE 3-GAME ROAD TRIP
The same rules apply as we had in the 4 and 5-game trips with a few added in:
NEVER bet Chicago TOTALS
NEVER bet Dallas SIDES
NEVER bet Houston TOTALS
NEVER bet Memphis SIDES
NEVER bet Orlando TOTALS
NEVER bet Philadelphia SIDES
NEVER bet Phoenix TOTALS
NEVER bet Utah TOTALS
So there you have it. We'll get hammered in all 3 bets numerous times throughout the year, but the risk is much smaller. It has already happened 6 times this year, but if you follow the NEVERS, we only lost the cash 3 times.

So your next question: If you had followed the rules since the 2000/01 season, what your profit be?
Answer: 684.4 UNITS

If you hadn't followed the NEVERS and played every possible trip, you would still have profited 168.5 units. Not chump change by any means. The problem always comes back to what will the last bet in the system be and how much can you afford to lose? I've already said I am only using 35% of my normal unit play, so that would translate to 239.54 regular units. Not bad for only a little over 3 seasons of work.

Here's a breakdown of the percentage of times you win on each bet:
5-game trip:
Game 1: 54.4%
Game 2: 22.1%
Game 3: 11.2%
Game 4: 8.0%
Game 5: 2.9%
Game 5 LOSS: 1.4%

4-game trip:
Game 1: 52.9%
Game 2: 27.0%
Game 3: 9.4%
Game 4: 5.7%
Game 4 LOSS: 5.0%

3-game trip:
Game 1: 53.4%
Game 2: 22.1%
Game 3: 13.0%
Game 3 LOSS: 11.5%

As you can see, 75-80% of the time, you don't even make it to game 3. And these numbers are assuming you didn't follow the NEVERS and played every possible trip. If you are going to play them all, I would suggest you not use the 3-game system. It wouldn't be worth the risk. Good luck!

And finally, how the actual risk per bet should be figured:

I am always trying to gain one unit on the total bet, and one unit on the side bet. But as I have said before, you should work BACKWARD on a 5-game series to determine what is the absolute most you are willing to risk on a game in this system, because you absolutely MUST abide by it, or it won't work and you will get killed in the end.

So let's assume a 5-game series with losses on the first 4 games (heaven forbid). You are always trying to win back your total losses to that point PLUS one unit. For instance:
1st game - risk 1.1 to win 1
2nd game - risk 2.31 to win 2.1
3rd game - risk 4.85 to win 4.41
4th game - risk 10.19 to win 9.26
5th game - risk 20.3 to win 18.45

So your "to win" number is always going to be your total losses on that series PLUS one unit. Now that you know that the most you will ever risk on one game is 20.3 units, you can figure what your unit bet will be.

Assume you don't want to risk more than a dime on any one game. Your unit bet will then be $50. If you had been betting $50 per unit for the first half of this season, you would be up over $4000. Not too bad.

[born2glf]

Kyle Baugues

Anyone with Kyle Baugues Picks, Please post.
Thanks

[Rebel89]

New Orleans Bowl

PRIMETIME PICKS has Under the posted total as top play.

[Ripple]

jb has knicks as i seen jazz and the knicks,,im told knicks is CONFirmed maybe someone else can confirm thanks & good luck

[OleBlueEyes]

JB

As always, I can confirm/post JB, PPP, Dr Bob and Executive in 30 minutes.

OBE

[Blackbeard]

Harmon Forecast NCAA

Bowl Games

New Orleans (Dec. 14)
Southern Miss 21 North Texas 19

Champs Sports (Dec. 21)
Georgia Tech 20 Syracuse 19

GMAC (Dec. 22)
Bowling Green 23 Memphis 13

Fort Worth (Dec. 23)
Cincinnati 22 Marshall 16

Las Vegas (Dec. 23)
UCLA 29 Wyoming 14

Hawaii (Dec. 24)
Hawaii 24 Alabama-Birmingham 23

MPC Computers (Dec. 27)
Virginia 26 Fresno State 21

Motor City (Dec. 27)
Toledo 19 Connecticut 15

Independence (Dec. 28)
Iowa State 17 Miami (Ohio) 16

Insight (Dec. 28)
Oregon State 25 Notre Dame 19

Houston (Dec. 29)
Colorado 21 Texas-El Paso 13

Alamo (Dec. 29)
Oklahoma State 23 Ohio State 19

Continental (Dec. 30)
North Carolina 18 Boston College 17

Emerald (Dec. 30)
New Mexico 24 Navy 14

Holiday (Dec. 30)
California 27 Texas Tech 16

Silicon Valley (Dec. 30)
Troy 16 Northern Illinois 13

Music City (Dec. 31)
Alabama 21 Minnesota 14

Sun (Dec. 31)
Purdue 20 Arizona State 14

Liberty (Dec. 31)
Louisville 33 Boise State 24

Peach (Dec. 31)
Miami 22 Florida 21

Outback (Jan. 1)
Georgia 19 Wisconsin 9

Cotton (Jan. 1)
Texas A&M 24 Tennessee 19

Gator (Jan. 1)
Florida State 25 West Virginia 17

Capital One (Jan. 1)
LSU 21 Iowa 17

Rose (Jan. 1)
Texas 26 Michigan 14

Fiesta (Jan. 1)
Utah 32 Pittsburgh 13

Sugar (Jan. 3)
Auburn 27 Virginia Tech 22

Orange (Jan. 4)
Southern Cal 25 Oklahoma 20