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NY Daily News/Phil Steele
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SI.com/Stewart Mandel NCAA
Thu., 8 p.m. EST | ESPN No. 21 West Virginia (8-2) at Pittsburgh (6-3)
Uh oh, star Mountaineers receiver Chris Henry got himself suspended for violating an undisclosed team rule the week of the Backyard Brawl. By the way, if the Panthers win and Syracuse beats Boston College, embattled coach Walt Harris may be headed to the BCS.
Pittsburgh 27, West Virginia 21
Fri., 2:30 p.m. EST | CBS No. 14 LSU (8-2) at Arkansas (5-5)
With South Carolina out of the bowl mix, the SEC could sure use a Razorbacks victory here to gain back some of that lost revenue. If he loses, Nick Saban should pull a Mark Mangino: "You know what this is about, right? The Music City Bowl."
LSU 20, Arkansas 13
Fri., 3:30 p.m. EST | ABC No. 22 Texas A&M (7-3) at No. 6 Texas (9-1)
The eyes of Texas -- and Berkeley, Calif., and Boise, Idaho -- are upon this one, as the 'Horns continue their run as the nation's most dominant team in games not played in Dallas. It's also Cedric Benson's last home game -- here's guessing he racks up 250 yards.
Texas 34, Texas A&M 20
Sat., 1 p.m. EST | ABC No. 16 Virginia (8-2) at No. 11 Virginia Tech (8-2)
The last time the Hokies and Cavaliers met as conference foes, on Nov. 16, 1935, the teams played to a 0-0 tie in a contest that featured 19 passing yards and 28 punts. Apparently, Virginia was looking ahead to the Washington and Lee game.
Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 24
Sat., 3:30 p.m. EST | CBS Georgia Tech (6-4) at No. 8 Georgia (8-2)
They call this rivalry "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate," which, if true, could serve as a lecture series for South Carolina and Clemson. But somehow I can't picture David Pollack knocking down Tech QB Reggie Ball, then wiping off his jersey for him.
Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 14
Sat., 3:30 p.m. EST | FSN No. 23 Oklahoma State (7-3) at Texas Tech (6-4)
Last year's game in Stillwater saw Tech QB B.J. Symons attempt 67 passes and nearly rally his team from a 27-point fourth-quarter deficit before falling 51-49. So feel free to keep shopping until the **** closes, the game will still be on.
Texas Tech 42, Oklahoma State 38
Sat., 8 p.m. EST | ABC Notre Dame (6-4) at No. 1 USC (10-0)
Snoop Dogg recently visited a USC practice and shagged passes -- not particularly well -- from QB Matt Leinart. Most people assumed it as a publicity stunt, but he was actually simulating Notre Dame's receivers for the scout team.
USC 31, Notre Dame 13
Thu., 10 a.m. EST | ESPN2 This week's upset special
Connecticut (6-4) at Rutgers (4-6)
Ah, there's nothing like the smell of 7 a.m. tailgates on a frigid Thanksgiving morning in lovely Piscataway, N.J. The Scarlet Knights fell short in their bid for a bowl breakthrough this year, but it's never too early to start looking ahead to 2005.
Rutgers 24, Connecticut 22
Last week: 7-1. Overall: 58-38.Comment
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SI.com/Peter King NFL
Thursday, 12:30 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Indianapolis at Detroit
Manning, 383 yards; Harrington, 91. "I was really happy with how I threw the ball downfield today," Harrington says after the game.
Indianapolis 34, Detroit 10
Thursday, 4:15 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Chicago at Dallas
Fourth quarter, 2:16 to go, 9-9 tie, Drew Henson jogs on the field at Texas Stadium, huge cheers. "I've heard these before," he says to himself. "In Ann Arbor. In front of 101,000." Ducks into the huddle. Keyshawn says: "Just throw me the damn ball." Henson complies. Touchdown. Ballgame.
Dallas 16, Chicago 9
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
Stat of the Week: This win makes Philly 30-8 in its last 38 road games.
Philadelphia 19, Giants 10
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Tennessee at Houston
Was it just me, or did anyone else think the ESPN Sunday night booth inducted David Carr into Canton about 21 years early the other night?
Houston 16, Tennessee 13
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Baltimore at New England
Something in my football pea-brain tells me Tom Brady's going to outplay Kyle Boller this week.
New England 20, Baltimore 10
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup San Diego at Kansas City
I know one thing after covering the NFL for 21 years: Dick Vermeil will have his guys playing hard Sunday. Very hard.
Kansas City 31, San Diego 26
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Jacksonville at Minnesota
At some point, maybe here, Daunte Culpepper has to play a great game without a completely healthy Randy Moss.
Minnesota 31, Jacksonville 17
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Tampa Bay at Carolina
I know we all wrote off the Bucs after losing in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, but a win here makes them 5-6 -- and likely leaves them one game out of a wild-card spot with five to play.
Tampa Bay 21, Carolina 10
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Washington at Pittsburgh
It's amazing the former Hog coach with the most influence on this game is not Joe Gibbs. It's Steelers offensive-line coach Russ Grimm.
Pittsburgh 22, Washington 3
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Cleveland at Cincinnati
Browns boobirds don't get their wish. I get the idea they'd rather see Butch fired than beat the Bungles.
Cleveland 21, Cincinnati 20
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Preview | Matchup New Orleans at Atlanta
I'm dying to know where Aaron Brooks is going to mis-throw a ball here. Might he put one through the roof the Georgia Dome? He's already thrown backwards, underhand and sideways.
Atlanta 31, New Orleans 14
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Preview | Matchup N.Y. Jets at Arizona
OK, I'll admit it. I don't trust Quincy Carter to win.
Arizona 19, Jets 13
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Buffalo at Seattle
As you can see, I have grave doubts about the goodness of the Men of Holmgren. When will they finally play like a Super Bowl team?
Seattle 14, Buffalo 13
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Miami at San Francisco
No comment.
Miami 17, San Francisco 6
Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Oakland at Denver
Shanahan's revenge.
Denver 38, Oakland 7
Monday, 9 p.m.
Preview | Matchup St. Louis at Green Bay
This has all the elements of an Ahman Green night. Long-range forecast: Cold, about 30, maybe flurries, windy. But four of the six Packers backs are hurt (Green, Najeh Davenport, Walter Williams, Nick Luchey), and the bulk of the work could go to Tony Fisher. That means Brett Favre, in his 200th straight regular-season start, should be the hero again.
Green Bay 27, St. Louis 16
Last week: 10-6 Overall: 78-53Comment
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Foxsports NCAA fearless predictions
these are the top 25 teams, click on collegesportsnews fp for the rest:
No. 22 Texas A&M at No. 6 Texas
Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Texas -10.5
One of college football's nastier rivalries renews as Texas needs to win, and get a little bit of help, to find its way into a deserved BCS spot, while Texas A&M wants to close out on a high note breaking a four-game losing streak to the Longhorns. Several Big XII bowl slots are up for grabs and the Aggies can finished tied for second in the South with a win. These are two tremendous teams that should wage a serious battle. Texas had problems with the Kansas offense, can it handle the Aggie spread attack? Can A&M get the one name win that would make it among the elite? Rivalry games are always fun and this will be no exception.
Prediction: Texas 38 ... Texas A&M 23
Complete Preview | GameTrax
Notre Dame at No. 1 USC
Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
Line:
USC -23
There's something eerily familiar about this. Two years ago Notre Dame came into L.A. against a hot USC team led by a tremendous quarterback. One 44-13 Trojan win later, USC was off the Orange Bowl and Carson Palmer had himself a Heisman. USC won't be able to punch its ticket to Miami quite yet if it can beat the Irish, but Matt Leinart can all but win the Heisman in front of a national audience while the team can make its definitive statement that it's unquestionably the number one team in the nation. But don't count out the Irish just yet. This is a good enough team to have beaten Michigan and Tennessee and can add a historic chapter to one of the greatest college football rivalries by winning and sending USC to Pasadena for the New Year.
Prediction: USC 45 ... Notre Dame 20
Complete Preview | GameTrax
No. 14 LSU at Arkansas
Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET
Line:
LSU -3.5
this is anything like the last time these two played in Arkansas, it'll be a classic. Two years ago Arkansas was dead in the water against the Tigers before a miraculous 50-yard completion set up a 31-yard touchdown pass and a 21-20 Hog win. There's more at stake this time around as Arkansas is 5-5 and in need of a win to get to a bowl game. LSU is 8-2 and winners of five straight, but it hasn't been the easiest of streaks needing late drives and some questionable officiating along the way to sneak by average teams like Troy, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss to go along with wins over Florida and Alabama. The Tigers are jockeying for position in the bowl pecking order and could use a ninth win to get a better bid.
Prediction: Arkansas 20 ... LSU 17
Complete Preview | GameTrax
No. 18 Arizona State at Arizona
Friday at 3 p.m. ET
Line:
ASU -13.5
ON FSN
Like any big rivalry there's dislike and a bit of hatred between the two teams, but it's not exactly Woody vs. Bo here as Arizona State head coach Dirk Koetter and Arizona's Mike Stoops are friends. Even so, this is a huge game for the futures of the two programs as Arizona can make a huge statement in its final game of the year and show that it's on the rebound. ASU is likely Holiday Bowl bound no matter what, but a dominant win would go a long way for recruiting. Even after a successful season, ASU will hear it from its fans if it can't bear down against the Wildcats. Stoops will have his troops jacked up and the intensity will carry the Wildcats for about a half, and then Walter will be Walter.
Prediction: Arizona State 31 ... Arizona 16
Complete Preview | GameTrax
Kentucky at No. 15 Tennessee
Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET
Line:
BC -14
There's nothing more to play for than mere pride. Kentucky is putting a cap on a miserable year but is coming off a 14-13 win over Vanderbilt that helped make things a little brighter. Embattled UK head coach Rich Brooks lost offensive coordinator Ron Hudson this week who resigned under the weight of heavy criticism. A win over the mighty Vols would do wonders to quiet everyone down. Tennessee is off to the SEC Championship next week and will be looking to simply stay healthy and move on. But the Vols' running game will ****** out 300 yards.
Prediction: Tennessee 42 ... Kentucky 13
Complete Preview | GameTrax
No. 16 Virginia at No. 11 Virginia Tech
Saturday at 1 p.m. ET
Line:
Va Tech -3.5
There's nothing like a rivalry game when it really matters and this battle between the Hokies and Cavaliers will be one of the biggest ever battle for the Commonwealth Cup. Virginia Tech controls its ACC destiny as it can win at least a share of the title with a win this week and then can be the league champs outright with a win over Miami. Virginia will guarantee itself a piece of the ACC title with a win and might have a shot at the BCS if the Hokies beat the Canes. For the ACC, for recruiting, and for pride in a fierce rivalry, this will be one of the weekend's most important games.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 23 ... Virginia 20
Complete Preview | GameTrax
Cincinnati at No. 7 Louisville
Saturday at 1 p.m. ET
Line:
L'Ville -17.5
The two hottest C-USA teams were all set to square off in a great showdown between two future Big East powers, but everything has changed a bit as Bearcat star QB Gino Guidugli slipped on a stair and broke a bone in his throwing hand. He's doubtful to play, but this should still be a spirited showcase for two great teams. Cincinnati has been getting better and better in Mark Dantonio's first season as the offense has become efficient while the defense has improved. However, it's facing a Louisville team that is currently No. 1 in total offense and second in scoring.
Prediction: Louisville 48 ... Cincinnati 27
Complete Preview | GameTrax
Syracuse at No. 17 Boston College
Saturday at 1 p.m. ET
Line:
BC -11.5
Talk about all the marbles, Boston College is in the BCS and wins the Big East championship with a win, while Syracuse can become bowl eligible with a victory. The Orange have had to sit on a stunning loss to Temple two weeks ago while the Eagles took care of business vs. the Owls with a 34-17 win last week. In BC's final game in the Big East, it can go out with a bang. The Boston College defense deserves more credit. It has only allowed 20 or more points twice and one of those came in overtime. Syracuse's offense isn't nearly potent enough to get more than two touchdowns.
Prediction: Boston College 31 ... Syracuse 16
Complete Preview | GameTrax
24 UTEP at Tulsa
Saturday at 3 p.m. ET
Line:
UTEP -8.5
UTEP can put the finishing touches on a spectacular regular season with its eight straight win as Mike Price's bunch are in the hunt for a ten-win campaign with a victory here and a win in its upcoming bowl game. Tulsa has been a disappointment unable to capture the momentum of last year's great season and looks to close out on a high note. The Golden Hurricane hasn't been playing all that poorly being on the wrong side of a couple OT games and coming close to beating Boise St.
Prediction: UTEP 38 ... Tulsa 34
Complete Preview | GameTrax
Georgia Tech at No. 8 Georgia
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
UGA -15
This is a bitter and angry feud between in-state rivals as Georgia Tech looks to halt a three-game losing streak to the Dawgs and get in better bowl position. Georgia has had two weeks to brood over the tough 24-6 loss to Auburn and wants to make amends in its first home game since mid-October. Still looking for more national respect, the Dawgs could use another impressive, nationally televised win while Georgia Tech could use this road victory as a springboard into next year.
Prediction: Georgia 31 ... Georgia Tech 13
Complete Preview | GameTrax
No. 23 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Tech -4.5
ON FSN
Considering the great seasons these two teams have had it's a shame the loser will be the fifth best team in the Big XII South. Either one would win the North, but those are the breaks in a crazy year like this. Oklahoma State is coming off an easy win against Baylor and have a probable date in the Alamo Bowl against Ohio State if it can beat Texas Tech. The Red Raider passing attack, as always, is the best in America and can get its first really big win of the year and jump up in the bowl picture. Beating mediocre Nebraska and Kansas State teams were nice, but this would be big for national respect. The Red Raiders will put up their normal yards and fireworks, but it'll be the Oklahoma State ground game that gets it done as Morency runs amok.
Prediction: Oklahoma St. 38 .. Texas Tech 35
Complete Preview | GameTrax
No. 10 Boise State at Nevada
Saturday at 4 p.m. ET
Line:
BSU -6
Things have gotten a lot more interesting. Everyone knew Boise State was going to be the WAC champion for a while and the Liberty Bowl appears to be a lock no matter what happens here, but now there's an outside shot of a BCS spot after the Broncos jumped up to the number seven slot in the recent standings. However, now a more critical eye than ever will be on them and they have to prove they can show up on the road after near-misses against miserable Tulsa and San Jose State teams. Nevada has been a monster disappointment blowing its bowl chances with a stunning loss to SMU a few weeks ago followed up by a 54-17 pounding by Fresno State. However, a win over Boise State would end the season on a major high note and set the tone for 2005.
Prediction: Nevada 48 ... Boise State 45Last edited by Blackbeard; 11-27-2004, 01:47 PM.Comment
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MSNBC Predicitons 101/ John Tamanaha
No. 16 Virginia
at No. 11 VT (Sat.)
Longtime in-state rivals are now also conference foes for the first time since 1935 and the bygone days of the Southern Conference. In this 86th renewal of the series, the team that walks away with the Commonwealth Cup will remain in the fight for the ACC crown.
The Hokies rank first in the ACC in both scoring offense (34.7) and defense (13.1), but the Cavaliers aren’t far behind (31.9 and 15.1), so this one has the makings of a classic.
Virginia, which has committed only eight turnovers this season, rarely beats itself and has a rock-solid running game with Wali Lundy and Alvin Pearman, who have combined for 4,742 rushing yards in their careers (and Lundy still has another year to go).
The Cavs, however, have not responded well to playing the ACC’s elite, having already lost at Florida State (36-3) and to Miami at home (31-21). Virginia will be stepping up in class once again and into a hornet’s nest in Blacksburg, where points don’t come easy versus the Hokie defense (only 19 in their last three games).
Weather updates: Click here
Opening point spread: Virginia Tech by 3.5
Pick: Virginia Tech 27-20
Syracuse at No. 17 BC
They’re calling it “one of the most significant and important games in 105 seasons of Boston College football.” Normally that kind of hyperbole doesn’t fly here, but in this case it does.
Hosting Syracuse in its final Big East game, Boston College will attempt to win the conference title and snatch a BCS berth. It’s an opportunity the Eagles best not flub. With them gliding over to the rugged ACC next year, this type of championship situation might present itself with the kind of frequency that only a Red Sox fan can comprehend.
Adding to the drama is the absence of senior QB Paul Peterson, who injured his hand in last week’s routine victory at Temple. Two redshirt freshmen -- QB Matthew Ryan and RB L.V. Whitworth -- will have to pick up the considerable slack. Both played well last week and are quite capable.
The Orange aren’t exactly window dressing here. The embattled Paul Pasqualoni can get his team bowl eligible with a victory, and if Pitt also beats West Virginia, Syracuse would be involved in a four-way tie at the top of the conference. But, does a team that lost to Temple two weeks ago even have a chance? Nope.
Weather updates: Click here
Opening point spread: Boston College 10.5
Pick: Boston College 36-21
Missouri at Iowa St.
Picked in the Big 12 preseason media poll to finish last in the North Division, the Cyclones have spun their way to the very top and want to stay there. When your last conference title was in 1912, you tend tosavor every moment and fight with every ounce to keep it going.
The flipside has Missouri spiraling away in a vastly different direction, having lost its last five games after opening the season with a 4-1 record. Last week, the Tigers showed only faint signs of life in their home finale, watching Kansas run out to a 28-0 lead early in the third quarter.
Iowa State also fell behind last weekend, but exploded for four touchdowns in the fourth quarter to post a 37-23 over Kansas State (the cellar-dweller that was picked to win the North), as tailback Stevie Hicks ran for 156 yards. Contrast that with Missouri, which finished with -6 yards rushing versus the Jayhawks and can’t seem to get big plays out of QB Brad Smith anymore.
There’s going to be a lot of partying in Ames.
Weather updates: Click here
Opening point spread: Iowa State by 4
Pick: Iowa State 27-14
GT at No. 8 Georgia
Georgia Tech very much resembled a Rambling Wreck last week in its 30-10 loss to Virginia, as QB Reggie Ball committed three of the team's four turnovers, including two interceptions in the end zone. Georgia, on the other hand, had last week off, although most of the free time was spent licking its wounds from the 24-6 beating handed out by Auburn on Nov. 13.
David Greene, the Bulldogs' celebrated 40-win QB, is just 10 yards shy of breaking Peyton Manning's SEC record of 11,201 career passing yards and is working on a TD-INT ratio of 8.5-1 this season. On the ground, Georgia has gotten 1,318 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns from a pair of freshman tailbacks, Danny Ware and Thomas Brown. Put it all together and it's a lethal air-land attack.
Although the Yellow Jacket defense is quite stingy, allowing just 19.4 points per game, it will have to play exceptionally well to keep things close. Georgia Tech ranks 102nd in the nation in scoring offense, so successfully trading points with the Bulldogs isn’t going happen.
Georgia has won the last three meetings between the two, including a 51-7 spanking the last time they met in Athens. It won't be that bad this time around, but still decisive.
Weather updates: Click here
Opening point spread: Georgia by 15
Pick: Georgia 31-14
ND at No. 1 USC
Having already risen to the occasion twice in 2004 to beat teams ranked in the Top 10, the Fighting Irish are out to pull off the trifecta in the latest renewal of their storied rivalry with the Trojans. But, which Notre Dame team will Tyrone Willingham lead out of the Coliseum tunnel? The one that brought down Michigan and Tennessee? Or the one that opened the season with an inexcusable loss at BYU and lost its last two games at home?
Another question is: “Does it matter?” In a series with a history as rich as this one, nothing is out of the question … so, yes, it matters.
USC, on the other hand, is more machine than mortal. Each stop along its 19-game winning streak has been a little bit different, offering some challenges along the way, but what never seems to waver is Pete Carroll’s ability to get what he needs from his team when he needs it. A Trojan opponent, no matter its lead or situation, never seems to have the upper hand over USC. Rather, it is just a matter of time until they meet their demise.
Weather updates: Click here
Opening point spread: USC by 22
Pick: USC 47-16
Northwestern at Hawaii
There isn’t any better place to spend a winter weekend, but there are plenty of easier locations to find wins. Nevertheless, Northwestern will take its chances with home-loving Hawaii as it fights for a victory that would make the Wildcats bowl eligible.
The Warriors, who host Michigan State next week, need to sweep both Big Ten foes to earn a berth in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve.
Hawaii won its fifth consecutive home game last week, blasting Idaho, 52-21. Record-setting QB Timmy Chang went wild, completing 23-of-31 for 376 yards and six touchdowns, four of which went to WR Jason Rivers. The terribly porous Warrior defense even did its job, coming up with 10 sacks versus the Vandals, while playing without three injured starters (CB Abraham Elimimian, LB Tanuvasa Moe and LB Ikaika Curnan), who are now back.
Northwestern, on the other hand, isn’t on much of a roll, needing overtime to get past lowly Illinois, 28-21, last week. The Wildcats have given up 42 or more points on the road three times this season. That’s not good if you are about to travel 4,248 miles and enter pass-happy Aloha Stadium.
Weather updates: Click here
Opening point spread: Northwestern by 6
Pick: Hawaii 36-31
Total: Outright 92-28; Against spread 61-54-4
Week 13: Outright 1-0; Against spread 1-0
WW: Pitt (+4.5) 31, W. Virginia 23 (Pitt 16-13)
Colorado (+3) 26, Nebraska 23
Arkansas (+4) 23, LSU 20
Texas (-10) 34, Texas A&M 21
Virginia Tech (-3.5) 27, Virginia 20
Boston College (-10.5) 36, Syracuse 21
Iowa State (-4) 27, Missouri 14
Georgia (-15) 31, Georgia Tech 14
USC (-22) 47, Notre Dame 16
Hawaii (+6) 36, Northwestern 31
Week 12: Outright 9-1; Against spread 6-3
WW: Va. Tech (-10) 24, Maryland 9 (VT 55-6)
WW: Oklahoma (-33.5) 55, Baylor 10 (OU 35-0)
W: Harvard 28, Yale 17 (Harvard 35-3)
LW: Michigan 27, Ohio St (+5.5) 23 (OSU 37-21)
WL: Auburn (-10) 24, 'Bama 9 (Auburn 21-13)
WL: Cal 31, Stanford (+24.5) 13 (Cal 41-6)
WW: Iowa (-3) 21, Wisconsin 17 (Iowa 30-7)
WL: Miami, Ohio 30, Akron (+8) 24 (Miami 37-27)
WW: Utah (-21.5) 52, BYU 20 (Utah 52-21)
WW: Florida (+7) 20, FSU 19 (Florida 20-13)
Week 11: Outright 6-4; Against spread 5-5
Week 10: Outright 8-2; Against spread 8-2
Week 9: Outright 7-3; Against spread 4-5-1
Week 8: Outright 9-1; Against spread 5-5
Week 7: Outright 9-1; Against spread 6-4
Week 6: Outright 6-4; Against spread 2-8
Week 5: Outright 7-3; Against spread 4-6
Week 4: Outright 9-1; Against spread 2-6-2
Week 3: Outright 8-2; Against spread 8-1-1
Week 2: Outright 6-4; Against spread 5-5
Week 1: Outright 7-2; Against spread 5-4
Key: W/L outright, W/L vs. spread, pick, final scoreComment
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blackbeard, with 800 picks for and against the same team what is the purpose of all this?
are you going to sum of some sort of consensus when you are done? or is this just a compliation of comps from around the country?Comment
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4breakout
Draw your own conclusions, these are non service plays from major newspapers and web sites, they are just as valid as any other picks. we have a service play thread that has exactly the same thing - 800 picks for or against a particular team, should we stop posting because of this? My sole purpose is to put these plays in a conveniant place and maybe help out some of the good guys on this site. And one more thing, the info is always accurate, you will never have to confirm these plays as they are all comps, and some of the cappers have excellent records.Last edited by Blackbeard; 11-26-2004, 07:19 PM.Comment
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MSNBC Predicitons Jay Novacek NFL (SU?)
Ravens (7-3) at Patriots (8-1)
I’m not so sold on the Ravens. The Cowboys were able to move the ball against them last week, and that shouldn’t happen, because their defense is supposed to be so good.
But Baltimore’s offense was much better, and the team has to be feeling good about that performance, especially by Kyle Boller.
So will the Ravens be able to match the Patriots’ balanced, effective offense? Baltimore probably will hold its own and hold New England down, but the Patriots defense will shut down the Ravens. They’ll create problems and keep Baltimore from moving the ball much. They’ll shut down the Ravens running game, especially if Jamal Lewis is out. The Pats will win the field-position battle and win low-scoring game.
Pick: Patriots
Eagles (9-1) at Giants (5-5)
Eli Manning really amazed me in his first start against the Falcons – he looked so much like his brother Peyton out there. Eli has many of the same mannerisms.
Tiki Barber also had a good game for the Giants – he’s having a good season. That will be a huge key this week.
But New York still lost, which tells you this team hasn’t put it all together yet. Eli will fix the mistakes he made, and if the receivers don’t make so many drops, then the Giants will have a more dynamic offense. The receivers will grow more accustomed to his delivery, too.
As for the Eagles, it’s their time to lose. Against the Redskins, they seemed to think they could turn it on when they needed it, and that will haunt them this week.
Pick: Giants
Chargers (7-3) at Chiefs (3-6)
The Chargers have the consistency that the Chiefs don’t. San Diego plays well each game, while Kansas City can’t put together wins.
The Chiefs showed some ability against the Pats. They moved the ball well, but couldn’t make key stops.
For San Diego, Drew Brees is playing well, and LaDainian Tomlinson showed last week he can still carry the team. The Chargers are controlling the ball better than the Chiefs – out-Chiefing the Chiefs, in a way. San Diego controls the clock by grinding it on the ground.
Pick: Chargers
Jaguars (6-4) at Vikings (6-4)
The return of Randy Moss will give the Vikings a boost. Even though they went 1-3 without him in the lineup, they were learning to win – they nearly upset the Pack at Lambeau. Rest assured, the Vikes will be better with them back.
Minnesota’s defense is improved, too, and they will keep the Jaguars from moving the ball very much.
Don’t take anything away from the Jags – they’re playing very well. But Minnesota’s the better team for now.
Pick: Vikings
Redskins (3-7) at Steelers (9-1)
This is not a game to go out on a limb: Everything matches up well for the Steelers to win this. Pittsburgh did have a tough game last week, a rivalry matchup, but the Steelers are consistent and won’t let up at all.
The Redskins, meanwhile, can’t do much of anything on offense. They were flat. I do think they’ll get better as the season goes with Clinton Portis, but they had no rhythm against the Eagles last week.
Pick: Steelers
Saints (4-6) at Falcons (8-2)
I haven’t seen Michael Vick put together a complete game yet, so I’m just waiting for his breakout performance. The Falcons quarterback didn’t have a good second half against the Giants last week – he tried too hard to create things, sometimes making turnovers and other times nearly turning it over.
I’m not convinced the Falcons are as good as their record indicates. They’re finding ways to win, but it will catch up to them.
This is the week.
Pick: Saints
Jets (7-3) at Cardinals (4-6)
Quincy Carter is having a tough time as the Jets starter – he’s getting enough done to win, but he was beaten up against the Browns with six sacks.
The Cardinals have the ability to play well – they’ve shown an ability to have a good game after a bad one. Shaun King should feel more comfortable in his second start at quarterback, and Emmitt Smith should get enough running yards.
If Arizona can wear down the New York defense, they’ll win.
Pick: Cardinals
Buccaneers (4-6) at Panthers (3-7)
The Buccaneers are getting on a roll, and they’ve found some chemistry with Brian Griese at quarterback. He’s not trying to do too much, and that’s effective for Jon Gruden’s offense. As long as the Bucs play well on defense, they’ll be in the game.
The Panthers had a great game last week but this won’t be so easy. I don’t think Nick Goings will have as good a day rushing the ball against Tampa.
Pick: Buccaneers
Browns (3-7) at Bengals (4-6)
The home team wins here, in this less-than-stellar battle.
Jeff Garcia had a big game against the Bengals last time, but Cincy will key on him and prevent him from rolling out.
The Bengals also are finding a rhythm on offense, and Chad Johnson will have some big catches.
Pick: Bengals
Titans (4-6) at Texans (4-6)
Last time these teams met, the Texans outplayed the Titans. The score didn’t reflect how much better Houston was in this game.
I don’t expect the Titans to play as poorly this time. They’ll find a way to score, with Steve McNair making the offense go. They’re so much better with him in the game.
Also, Tennessee will play much better on defense.
Pick: Titans
Bills (4-6) at Seahawks (6-4)
The Bills could be a good team, if they could just protect Drew Bledsoe.
The Seahawks are having problems, especially on offense. Hopefully as Jerry Rice grows more comfortable, he’ll contribute more to the offense.
The Bills are a dangerous team if they’re on a roll. They can run the ball well with Willis McGahee, and Bledsoe will be comfortable returning to the Northwest.
Neither team is consistent. Seattle is the better team, but must play better. They haven’t shown the ability to do that consistently. Meanwhile, the Bills are clicking.
If the Seahawks can’t put pressure on Bledsoe, they’re toast.
Pick: Seahawks
Raiders (3-7) at Broncos (7-3)
The Broncos running backs continue to amaze. Reuben Droughns is very successful when he gets up a head of steam, and Denver opens big holes for him.
Norv Turner knew when he took the Raiders job that he was in a tough situation. He knows he has an uphill battle, but that doesn’t mean that he’ll win this week.
Pick: Broncos
Dolphins (1-9) at 49ers (1-9)
The Dolphins have a brutal back-to-back trips here. That’s tough. It’s hard going across the country once, and they have to do it again. They won’t win.
Pick: 49ers
Rams (5-5) at Packers (6-4)
The Rams have shown they’re a hot-and-cold team – they shouldn’t have lost on the road to Buffalo.
The Packers, meanwhile, need to keep playing well. They’re under pressure of trying to keep pace with the Vikings, but Green Bay is a very good team.
They’re on track in the running game, and Brett Favre is still one of the best around. Plus, the Packers defense is playing well. They rebounded from a poor first half against the Texans.
Pick: Packers
LAST WEEK: 14-2; SEASON RECORD: 97-63Comment
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USA Today/Eric Smith
No. 1 Southern California vs. Notre Dame, 8 p.m.
The Trojans aren't sweating the numbers in the BCS even though the argument can be made that they are not as deserving as Oklahoma and Auburn. This will be an opportunity to quiet any critics and sink the Irish season that held such promise a month ago. Southern California 41, Notre Dame 14.
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 22 Texas A&M, 3:30 p.m. (Friday)
This may be Mack Brown's best coaching job in Austin, despite the fact that the Longhorns will be denied a berth in the BCS again. But at least Texas fans have plenty of experience in finding the right places to stay in Dallas and San Diego during bowl season the last six seasons. Texas 30, Texas A&M 17.
No. 7 Georgia vs. Georgia Tech, 3:30 p.m.
Fans of the Yellow Jackets were calmed this week when the school announced the team's nickname would not be changed even though the offense continues to lack any sting. Georgia 28, Georgia Tech 10.
No. 8 Louisville vs. Cincinnati, 2:30 p.m.
Stefan Lefors and Gino Guidugli are two of the more underrated senior quarterbacks. Helped by stronger weapons than Guidugli, Lefors quietly is leading the nation in passing efficiency and has the Cardinals steaming toward the best season in school history. The train doesn't stop this week. Louisville 40, Cincinnati 20.
No. 10 Boise State at Nevada, 7:45 p.m.
It is fitting that the mighty-mite Broncos wrap up their unbeaten season in the Biggest Little City in the World. And they might still be able to hit the BCS jackpot if somehow Texas or California are upset. Boise State 45, Nevada 21.
No. 11 Virginia Tech vs. No. 16 Virginia, 1 p.m.
The stakes are greater and the emotion will be higher for these rivals who meet for the first time as conference opponents. The Hokies and Cavaliers are almost mirror images, however Tech has the advantage with veteran Bryan Randall under center and the raucous home crown in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 16.
No. 12 LSU at Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Friday)
The motivational edge has to be with the Razorbacks, who must win to keep their season going. LSU is winning games with lackluster quarterback play. This may finally be the week the Tigers' weakness is exposed. Arkansas 23, LSU 20
No. 15 Tennessee vs. Kentucky, 12:30 p.m.
With their spot in the SEC title game assured, the Vols are only playing for bragging rights against their neighbor. Rich Brooks may be playing for his job as the Wildcats have just two conference wins in his two-year tenure. Tennessee 38, Kentucky 17.
No. 19 Boston College vs. Syracuse, 1 p.m.
Even without injured starting quarterback Paul Peterson, the Eagles are in fine shape to earn their first BCS bid in their final year in the Big East. Syracuse could earn a bowl berth and possibly keep Paul Pasqualoni around for another year, but it will take a monumental effort from a team that lost to Temple last time out. Boston College 24, Syracuse 17.
No. 20 Arizona State at Arizona, 3 p.m. (Friday)
This is the level of competition that suits the Sun Devils and Andrew Walter. They will name the score against the Wildcats and Mike Stoops, who will be relieved that his first season in the desert is finally over. Arizona State 35, Arizona 14.
No. 21 West Virginia at Pittsburgh, 8 p.m. (Thursday)
The winner of the Backyard Brawl would be in position for a BCS bid with a stumble by Boston College. More likely, the spoils are the Gator Bowl for either the disappointing Mountaineers or surprising Panthers. West Virginia 28, Pittsburgh 27.
No. 23 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 3:30 p.m.
Vernand Morency is expected to be at 100% for the Cowboys, who have not beaten the Red Raiders in Lubbock since their move to the Big 12. Last team with the ball should win this shootout. Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 34.
No. 25 UTEP at Tulsa, 3 p.m.
The Miners have spent a lot of time deservedly celebrating after locking up their unexpected bowl berth last week. While that means some happy times in El Paso, it also means that Tulsa could be in great shape to pull an upset. Tulsa 31, UTEP 30.
Last week's record: 13-3 SU(7-9 ATS)
Season record: 176-48 SU(118-97-2 ATS)Comment
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Some Trends:
• CLE is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
• CLE is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Nov.
• CLE is 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
• Under is 7-1 in CIN last eight home games.
• CIN is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
• Under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
• JAC is 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Nov.
• Under is 6-3 in JAC last nine road games.
• Under is 10-3 in JAC last 13 games in a dome.
• Over is 8-3-1 in MIN last 12 games in Nov.
• Under is 3-0 in MIN last three home games.
• MIN is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
• PHI is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
• PHI is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 played in Nov.
• PHI is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 overall.
• Under is 7-2 in the Giants last nine overall.
• NYG are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
• Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings.
• SD is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 overall.
• Under is 4-0 in SD last four road games.
• Over is 5-1 in SD last six games in Nov.
• KC is 1-8 ATS in their last nine played in Nov.
• Over is 11-6 in KC last 17 home games.
• Chiefs have lost their last three overall ATS.
• Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
• Under is 8-2 in Bucs last 10 played in Nov.
• TB is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• CAR is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
• Over is 4-0 in CAR last four overall.
• CAR is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings
• TEN is 3-6 ATS in their last nine overall.
• TEN is 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
• Under is 8-4 in TEN last 12 games in Nov.
• HOU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• HOU is 0-3 ATS in their last three overall.
• HOU ranks 30th in def. allowing 366.6 yds/gm.
• WAS is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in PIT.
• WAS is 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
• Under is 11-3 in WAS last 14 overall.
• PIT is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
• Over is 15-4 in PIT last 19 home games.
• Under is 4-1 in PIT last five games in Nov.
• Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
• Over is 6-1 in NO last seven road games.
• NO is 3-6 ATS in their last nine games in Nov.
• Under is 14-5 in ATL last 19 overall.
• ATL is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games in Nov.
• ATL is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.Comment
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More Trends:
• BAL is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
• BAL is 8-1 ATS in their last nine overall.
• Over is 7-1 in the Ravens last eight in Nov.
• NE is 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 at home.
• Under is 9-3-1 in NE last 13 home games.
• Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
• Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
• Under is 15-2 in BUF last 17 road games.
• BUF is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
• SEA is 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall.
• Over is 6-1 in the Seahawks last seven overall.
• Over is 6-2 in SEA last eight on grass.
• MIA is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 overall.
• Over is 5-0 in MIA last five overall.
• MIA is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in Nov.
• SF is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 played in Nov.
• SF ranks 27th in defense allowing 17.5 pts/gm.
• 49ers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
• Jets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven away.
• Over is 6-2 in NYJ last eight games in Nov.
• NYJ are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 vs NFC West.
• Over is 7-3 in the Cards last 10 played in Nov.
• Over is 6-1 in ARI last seven overall.
• ARI is 8-1 ATS in their last nine at home.
• Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
• OAK is 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 overall.
• Over is 4-1 in OAK last five road games.
• Under is 6-1-2 in Broncos last nine overall.
• DEN is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs AFC West.
• DEN has won the last three meetings ATS.
• STL is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
• Over is 7-2 in the Rams last nine overall.
• STL is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
• Under is 6-2 in GB last eight games in Nov.
• GB is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
• Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.Comment
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Mejia Ncaa fb
Last week: 37-9 | Season record: 446-142 (75.9 %) su
Projected Scores
Week 14
Rice 37 Louisiana Tech 34
Tennessee 27 Kentucky 7
Georgia 29 Georgia Tech 10
Oklahoma State 45 Texas Tech 35
Virginia 24 Virginia Tech 13
Missouri 20 Iowa State 13
Boston College 31 Syracuse 17
Maryland 20 Wake Forest 10
North Carolina State 38 East Carolina 3
Northwestern 52 Hawaii 33
Southern California 34 Notre Dame 17
Memphis 27 South Florida 20
Fresno State 45 San Jose State 6
Boise State 55 Nevada 24
Texas-El Paso 41 Tulsa 28
TCU 38 Tulane 24
Southern Mississippi 31 UAB 17
Louisville 52 Cincinnati 20
Mississippi 20 Mississippi State 17
Arkansas 13 LSU 10
Nebraska 31 Colorado 13
Arizona State 34 Arizona 17
Texas 34 Texas A&M 23
Rutgers 21 Connecticut 20
West Virginia 27 Pittsburgh 24
Bowling Green 41 Toledo 31
Kent State 31 Central Florida 23Comment
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FOXSports /TheSportsAdvisors
BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND
Baltimore, 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS, covered for the sixth straight game with last week's 30-10 win over visiting Dallas. The Ravens, who have scored the spread win in 14 of their last 19 as a road dog, have allowed an averaged of just 11.6 points per game in their last eight contests.
New England improved to 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS with its Monday night 27-19 win and cover at Kansas City. The Patriots, who are on a spread run of 11-0-2 as a home favorite, have covered just twice in their last seven outings following a Monday night affair.
Totals Tip: Baltimore has stayed under in seven of its last eight road games while the Patriots have topped the posted price just once in their last four at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
PHILADELPHIA at NEW YORK GIANTS
Philadelphia is now 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS following its 28-6 home win over Washington last Sunday. The Eagles have covered four of the last five in this series, including a 31-17 win over the visiting Giants in the season opener. They're also on a 16-2 spread run in November conference games.
New York, 5-5 SU/ATS, failed to win or cover for the fourth time in five games with last week's 14-10 setback to the visiting Falcons. The contest marked the first pro start of quarterback Eli Manning's career.
The Giants are on spread slides of 3-8 when playing with revenge and 7-22 in November games.
Totals Tip: The Giants have stayed under in seven of their last nine overall, while the Eagles have failed to go over in seven of their last 10 versus an avenging division rival.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH
Washington, 3-7 SU/ATS, did not cover in last week's 22-point loss at Philadelphia. The Redskins have covered only three of their last 11 as a road pup of 7½ points or more, but they are on a spread run of 15-3 when getting points in the month of November.
Pittsburgh won and covered for the eighth straight game with last week's 19-14 win over the Bengals as a four-point road chalk. The Steelers, 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS, have covered four straight at home this year.
In their last four games, two played without the services of Duce Staley, who is expected to be available for this contest, the Steelers have a cumulative rushing advantage of 804-147.
Totals Tip: Washington has stayed under in eight of 10 games this year while Pittsburgh has stayed under the total in 17 of its last 22 outings following a battle with the Bengals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI
The straight-up winner has notched the pointspread triumph as well in each of the last 10 series' showdowns.
Cleveland fell to 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS following its 10-7 loss to the Jets as a 1½-point home dog a week ago. The Browns, who beat visiting Cincinnati 34-17 on Oct. 17, have covered five of the last six meetings. But, Cleveland has failed to win or cover in four road games this year.
Cincinnati, 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS, did not stay inside the four-point number in last Sunday's five-point loss to the visiting Steelers. The Bengals are on spread runs of 5-1 as a November chalk and 5-2 at home with revenge. However, they're on a 1-7 spread slide at home versus division rivals.
Cincy quarterback Carson Palmer is listed as probable for the contest despite leaving practice Thursday with back spasms.
Totals Tip: Cleveland has gone over in 11 of its last 14 division road games, while the Bengals have sailed over in seven of their last nine when playing with same season revenge.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
JACKSONVILLE at MINNESOTA
Jacksonville fell to 6-4 SU/ATS following last week's 18-15 loss to the visiting Titans. The Jaguars are 5-10-1 versus the number in their last 16 non-conference road tilts However, they've covered nine of their last 13 when getting points, including five of seven this year.
Minnesota, 6-4 SU and ATS, did not cover the eight-point number in last week's 22-19 win over visiting Detroit. The Vikings have covered seven of their last nine non-division home games, but are on a spread slide of 1-8 as a non-conference chalk in November.
Totals Tip: Minnesota has gone over in six of its last seven versus AFC competition
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA
Tampa Bay improved to 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 after smacking visiting San Francisco 35-3 a week ago. But, the Buccaneers have covered only twice in their last 10 road games and are 1-5 versus the number in their last six against the Panthers.
Carolina, 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS, won its first home game of the year with last Sunday's 35-10 blowout of Arizona. The Panthers are on a spread slide of 1-6-1 in the second of back-to-back home games, but they are 9-4-1 against the number in their last 15 as a home pup.
Totals Tip: Six of the last seven meetings have failed to top the posted price. Also, the Panthers have stayed under the total in five of their last seven in the second of back-to-back home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY
The straight-up winner is 15-3-2 ATS the last 10 years in this longtime rivalry.
San Diego covered for the seventh straight game with last week's 23-17 win at Oakland. The Chargers, 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS, are only 4-8-2 versus the number in their last 14 battles with Kansas City. They've also failed to cover in five straight when getting points from the Chiefs, and are 0-5-2 against the number in their last seven trips to Arrowhead.
Kansas City fell to 3-7 SU/ATS after failing to cover in Monday night's eight-point home loss to the Patriots. The Chiefs have covered their first division home game of the year nine of the last 10 seasons.
Totals Tip: San Diego has gone over in six of seven in the second of back-to-back road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS CITY
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON
Tennessee's outright 18-15 win at Jacksonville last Sunday moved the Titans to 4-6 SU/ATS in 2004. The Titans, who lost outright 20-10 to the visiting Texans on Oct. 17, had won straight-up all four meetings in this series prior to that setback last month. They're on a spread run of 6-2 in the second of back-to-back road games as the Titans are in the middle of the NFL's only three-game road swing this season.
Houston, 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS, lost 16-13 to Green Bay as a three-point home dog last Sunday night. The Texans, who have covered four straight division home games, are 6-2 against the number in their last eight in November off a straight-up loss.
Totals Tip: The Titans have stayed under in five straight when playing on the road with same-season revenge. The Texans have stayed under in their last two home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA
New Orleans fell to 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS with last Sunday's 34-13 loss to visiting Denver. The Saints have covered just three of the last 15 meetings in this series, but did win both battles straight-up against the Michael Vick-less Falcons last year, including a 45-17 win in Atlanta.
Atlanta, 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS, covered for the third straight game with last week's 14-10 road win over the Giants. The Falcons have covered four of their last five following a straight-up road victory, but are 3-7-1 versus the number in their last 11 when laying 6½ or more points, including 0-2 this year.
Totals Tip: Atlanta has stayed under in seven of 10 this year and 14 of its last 19 overall. However, the Saints have gone over in four consecutive following a straight-up home loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NEW YORK JETS at ARIZONA
New York, 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS, had failed to win or cover in two straight before prevailing 10-7 as a 1½-point chalk at Cleveland last week. The Jets are on a 12-4-1 spread run as a road favorite, but are only 4-8-1 versus the number in their last 13 against NFC competition.
Arizona dropped to 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS with last week's 25-point loss at Carolina. The Cardinals have covered seven of their last eight as a home dog, but are on a spread slide of 4-12-1 at home versus AFC teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
BUFFALO at SEATTLE
Buffalo's 37-17 dismantling of visiting St. Louis last Sunday improved to the Bills to 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS this year. They've now covered 13 of their last 18 non-conference games and are on a 16-7-1 spread run as a non-conference road dog.
Seattle, 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS, did not cover the 9½-point number in a 24-17 win over the visiting Dolphins last week. Outside of two wins over San Francisco, the Seahawks haven't covered since the second week of the season and they've failed to cash the Vegas ticket in nine straight versus AFC East teams.
Totals Tip: Seattle has sailed over six of its last seven games and in five of six in the second of back-to-back home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO/OVER
MIAMI at SAN FRANCISCO
Miami, 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS, covered for only the second time in eight games in last week's seven-point loss at Seattle. The Dolphins are on a spread run of 13-1 versus teams with a .250 winning percentage or less, but they've covered just once in their last six tries in the second of back-to-back road games.
San Francisco fell to 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS following its 32-point setback at Tampa Bay a week ago. The 49ers, who have lost five consecutive games straight-up by double digits, have covered five in a row versus AFC East competition heading into this contest, a game that could determine who has the top draft pick come next April.
Totals Tip: San Francisco has gone over in nine of its last 11 off a double-digit straight-up loss, while Miami has gone over in five straight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
OAKLAND at DENVER
Oakland, 3-7 SU and ATS, failed to cover for the sixth time in seven games with last Sunday's 23-17 loss to the visiting Chargers.
The Raiders were embarrassed 31-3 by the visiting Broncos on Octorber 17 as they've covered just four of the last 14 meetings. Oakland is also only 2-5 against the number in its last seven trips to the Mile High City.
Denver improved to 7-3 SU and 4-4-2 ATS after its convincing 34-13 win at New Orleans a week ago. The Broncos have covered only once in their last nine as a double-digit chalk versus an avenging foe, but they are on an 8-0-1 spread run in division games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVERComment
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USA Today/Jeff Zillgitt NFL
Indianapolis (-8) at Detroit
It's not who will win. It's will Peyton Manning throw three, four or five touchdowns at Ford Field? The Colts just destroyed the Bears on the road. Their offense is nearly unstoppable. Indianapolis' shaky defense will handle Detroit's struggling offense.
It's obvious what the Colts are thankful for. The Lions are thankful the NFL still lets them play Thanksgiving Day games at home.
Colts 30, Lions 21
***
Chicago (+3½) at Dallas
Vinny Testaverde is definitely not the quarterback of the future and based on recent results and health status, he might not even be the quarterback of the present. Understandably, Cowboys coach Bill Parcells doesn't want to give up on this season. But he might as well find out where Drew Henson is before next season rolls around.
Cowboys 21, Bears 17
***
Tampa Bay (-2½) at Carolina
Both are improving teams who waited a little too long — injuries didn't help — to start playing decent football. The Bucs are a little better on both sides of the ball, especially in the last six games. Quarterback Brian Griese deserves credit for the Bucs' 4-2 record in that span.
Bucs 17, Panthers 16
***
Cleveland (+6) at Cincinnati
Browns coach Butch Davis is struggling to hold on to his job as Cleveland takes a four-game losing streak into this game. Cincinnati, while nothing special, has shown it can play with and even beat decent teams. The Browns' best win came against the Ravens in the season opener, when Ravens QB Kyle Boller had trouble running the offense.
Bengals 24, Browns 17
***
Tennessee (-1) at Houston
The Titans showed they weren't ready to call it quits on the season with a gutsy 18-15 win in Jacksonville. The Texans showed they are decent enough to challenge the Packers, but not good enough to beat them at home. But they should have enough to beat Tennessee, still a team with plenty of injuries, at home.
Texans 24, Titans 20
***
San Diego (+3) at Kansas City
The Chiefs defense can't stop an army of ants. When all the little ants go marching, the Chiefs let them into the end zone. But even a blind ant finds a nut occasionally. Or something like that.
Chiefs 28, Chargers 24
***
Jacksonville (+6) at Minnesota
The return of Randy Moss, even in a limited role, should open up Minnesota's offense enough to take care of the Jaguars. Plus, the Vikings are 4-1 at home.
The Vikings, losers of three of their last four, are thankful for Moss' return.
Vikings 28, Jaguars 20
***
Baltimore (no line) at New England
This is a good test for both teams. The Patriots face a playoff-caliber team with an outstanding defense, and the Ravens can accurately measure their playoff chances. And this will be the result: The Patriots are talented enough to return to the Super Bowl, and the Ravens are talented enough to make the playoffs, but won't necessarily reach the postseason.
Patriots 23, Ravens 16
***
Philadelphia (+7) at New York Giants
That Eli Manning is no Ben Roethlisberger. Even if Manning is every bit of the quarterback — or more — that Roethlisberger is, there is no way for Manning to measure up to his rookie counterpart. Getting Atlanta then Philadelphia is no joy even for established quarterbacks.
The Eagles are thankful for Terrell Owens — if he can help them to the Super Bowl.
Eagles 23, Giants 17
***
Washington (+10 ½) at Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for more than 200 yards only once but he has not attempted more than 25 passes in a game. In eight starts, his completion percentage has been lower than 60% just once and his QB rating has been higher than 100 six times. Just baby steps. Wait until the guy starts running.
The Steelers are thankful offensive lineman Alan Faneca's comments earlier in the season about not being excited to play in a rookie QB's first game are laughable now.
Lock of the week: Steelers 27, Redskins 14
***
New Orleans (+ 9½) at Atlanta
According to Saints owner Tom Benson, the Saints looked "just like high school kids" in New Orleans' 34-13 loss to Denver. Does that mean defending Louisiana 5A state champs Hahnville could beat the Saints?
Falcons 28, Saints 20
***
New York Jets (-3) at Arizona
This is just the kind of game Arizona can win. Home underdog against a team vying for the playoffs without its starting quarterback.
Upset special: Cardinals 20, Jets 17
***
Miami (pick 'em) at San Francisco
Even Miami's offense should be able to score against the 49ers. And the Dolphins' defense can handle San Francisco's offense.
These teams will not be thankful until this season is over.
By default …
Dolphins 20, 49ers 17
***
Buffalo (+5) at Seattle
Buffalo's offense operates effectively against weak defenses. Against good defenses, it's a different story. The Seahawks have been far too inconsistent this season, given expectations, but at home, against Buffalo, with playoff positioning at stake, Seattle needs this game.
Seahawks 23, Bills 16
***
Oakland (+11) at Denver
The Oakland Raiders have not done one thing all season long that leads me to believe they can beat the Broncos at Mile High. But I also said the same thing about the Falcons when they went to Denver four weeks ago and thumped the Broncos 41-28. Atlanta is no Oakland
Broncos 31, Raiders 17
***
St. Louis (+6) at Green Bay
The Rams … on the road, outdoors, in chilly weather, against the hot Packers. The negatives outweigh the positives for St. Louis.
The NFL and fans are thankful for Brett Favre.
Packers 28, Rams 24
***
Last week: 11-5 straight up; 4-11-1 against the spread
Overall: 91-69; 64-89-6
Upset special: 3-7
Lock of the week: 7-3Comment
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