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Harmon Forecast NFL
Week 12 - Thursday, Nov. 25, 2004
*Dallas 20 Chicago 18 - This could easily go either way, because where the Cowboys are at their best on offense -- passing -- the Bears are strongest on defense. The last time these teams met, in 1998, Chicago was a 13-12 winner.
Indianapolis 28 *Detroit 17 - The Lions may be struggling, but they’re getting better against the pass -- just ask Minnesota. Detroit, which has won five of its last seven annual home Thanksgiving games, hasn’t faced Indy in four years.
Week 12 - Sunday, Nov. 28, 2004
*Atlanta 29 New Orleans 14 - In the past two weeks the Saints’ defense has sunk to dead last in the league against both runners and throwers, so the Falcons don’t have to stay on the ground. N.O. swept Atlanta in ’03, 45-17 and 23-20.
*Cincinnati 21 Cleveland 19 - Jeff Garcia threw four TD passes, one a 99-yarder, to lead the Browns over Cincinnati in Week Six, 34-17. The Bengals were then, and remain, weakest against the rush, but at home they’ll barely escape a sweep.
*Denver 33 Oakland 9 - The Raiders would rather forget Week Six, when Broncos QB Jake Plummer and RB Reuben Droughns combined for 366 yards and four TD’s in a 31-3 drubbing of Oakland. No phase of the Raiders’ game threatens Denver.
*Houston 22 Tennessee 17 - Week Six, take three: The Texans finally beat the team that left Texas for Tennessee, 20-10, picking off four Steve McNair passes. Tennessee must throw to keep it close; Houston should put the ball up to win.
*Kansas City 24 San Diego 20 - The Chargers’ defensive line, now the league’s stingiest, can’t ground the Chiefs’ steadily strengthening air game all by itself. K.C. has taken five of the last six in the series -- 27-14 and 28-24 last year.
*Minnesota 30 Jacksonville 21 - There’s been improvement recently in both the Jaguars’ rushing and pass defense, which will help them -- but not enough -- against the Vikings. They’ve met twice, most recently in ’01, and each has won once.
*New England 19 Baltimore 15 - Speaking of improvement, the Patriots are finally starting to stop the run, which will help them -- a lot -- with the Ravens’ ground game. Still, Baltimore has plenty of D as well. N.E. is 2 for 2 against the Ravens.
N.Y. Jets 21 *Arizona 16 - They should be able to dominate the Cardinals by running straight through their porous defensive line, but the Jets, who haven’t faced off with Arizona in five years, often turn easy contests into struggles.
Philadelphia 25 *N.Y. Giants 17 - With Terrell Owens catching three of Donovan McNabb’s four TD passes, the Eagles beat the Giants in the season opener, 31-17. N.Y. has a solid secondary now, but it has none of what it needs most: momentum.
*Pittsburgh 23 Washington 12 - Not a good choice for upset of the week, but it may be the most surprising close game of the week, because the Redskins’ defense -- like the Steelers’ -- continues to stand out. Pittsburgh won last, in ’00.
*San Francisco 16 Miami 13 - If anyone’s watching, this should be a tight, defense-dominated, turnover-dependent game, with the Dolphins tying up 49ers receivers. S.F. has won the last five in the series, most recently three years ago.
*Seattle 17 Buffalo 14 - Yeah, the Bills came to life last week, but the Seahawks offer a more demanding defensive test than the Rams. The question is, can Seattle outsmart Buffalo’s savvy D? The Seahawks were 23-20 winners in ’01.
Tampa Bay 19 *Carolina 17 - The Buccaneers and Panthers, feeling their oats after each scoring 35 points last week, will want to pass, but they won’t get far against each other’s secondary. Carolina swept T.B. last year, 12-9 and 27-24.
Week 11 - Monday, Nov. 29, 2004
*Green Bay 31 St. Louis 24 - Enough with defenses, already; the Packers and Rams can be depended on to produce a shootout, like St. Louis’s 34-24 victory in ’03. The difference between them is that G.B. can run much better than the Rams. -
Harmon Forecast NCAA
Game of the Week
*Arkansas 20, LSU 17
Our computer keeps telling us that Arkansas is better than its record, though we've been wrong a lot about the Razorbacks. Well, if they manage to pull off this huge upset on Friday, remember, you heard it here first.
Week of Nov. 27 and Dec. 4
Major Colleges - Div. I-A
Games for Nov. 23-Nov. 27
*Alabama State 28 Tuskegee 12
Arizona State 27 *Arizona 16
*Arkansas 20 L.S.U. 17
Boise State 31 *Nevada 14
*Boston College 22 Syracuse 16
Bowling Green 16 *Toledo 10
Connecticut 20 *Rutgers 19
*Florida Atlantic 64 Edward Waters 6
Florida International 20 Florida A&M 13
Fresno State 35 *San Jose State 13
*Georgia 33 Georgia Tech 13
Kent State 21 *Central Florida 14
Louisiana Tech 16 *Rice 13
*Louisville 29 Cincinnati 13
*Maryland 19 Wake Forest 14
*Mississippi 24 Mississippi State 15
Missouri 17 *Iowa State 14
*Nebraska 24 Colorado 21
North Carolina State 28 East Carolina 7
Northwestern 28 *Hawaii 17
*South Florida 17 Memphis 16
*Southern California 31 Notre Dame 10
*Southern Mississippi 20 Alabama-Birmingham 10
Southern U. 23 Grambling 7
*Tennessee 34 Kentucky 7
*Texas 30 Texas A&M 12
*Texas Christian 18 Tulane 15
Texas-El Paso 24 *Tulsa 12
*Texas Tech 21 Oklahoma State 17
*Virginia Tech 23 Virginia 19
West Virginia 26 *Pittsburgh 20Comment
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Chicago Sun Times NFL
NFL Forecast
November 26, 2004
BY JEFF AGREST
RAIDERS AT BRONCOS
Time: 7:30 p.m., ESPN, 670-AM.
Records: Raiders 3-7; Broncos 7-3.
Line: Broncos by 11.
Trends: Agrest is 9-0-1 ATS on Sunday night. ... The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
Outlook: My Sunday night trend isn't perfect anymore, but there's still a zero in the loss column. So I'm sticking with it. Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan is 15-4 against the Raiders, and QB Jake Plummer (right) has a passer rating of 135.2 in three starts against them. In fact, Plummer has been on fire the last two games -- both Broncos victories -- completing 66 percent of his passes with a touchdown-interception ratio of 6-0. Granted, he faced two of the worst defenses in the league in the Texans (No. 30) and Saints (32), but the Raiders (27) are down there, too, and Plummer doesn't make the schedule. An argument can be made that the Broncos will look past this game to the Chargers in Week 13, but they're trying to keep pace with the division co-leaders, so this game is a must.
Pick: Broncos 34, Raiders 17.
TITANS AT TEXANS
Time: Noon.
Records: Titans 4-6; Texans 4-6.
Line: Titans by 1-1/2.
Trend: The Texans are 6-3 ATS in their last nine divisional games.
Outlook: The Titans' secondary is in shambles, with CB Andre Woolfork the latest to go down. QB David Carr will have matchups to exploit with his talented receiving corps. So should the Titans against the Texans' 30th-ranked pass defense, though it was obvious last week that QB Steve McNair has plenty of rust to shake off.
Pick: Texans 31, Titans 27.
REDSKINS AT STEELERS
Time: Noon.
Records: Redskins 3-7; Steelers 9-1.
Line: Steelers by 11.
Trends: The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Pittsburgh. ... The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in home games coming off two consecutive division victories since 1992.
Outlook: Both teams boast stout run defenses, so the pressure will be on QBs Patrick Ramsey and Ben Roethlisberger to make some plays. Roethlisberger has proved he can handle pressure at such a young age, but he'll need better protection after being sacked seven times last week. The Redskins love to bring the heat.
Pick: Steelers 22, Redskins 14.
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS
Time: Noon.
Records: Bucs 4-6; Panthers 3-7.
Line: Buccaneers by 2-1/2.
Trend: The Panthers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Outlook: The Buccaneers have come to life since QB Brian Griese took over, winning four of their last six games. Helping the cause has been RB Michael Pittman, who has broken 100 yards in three of the last four games. He should exploit the Panthers' 27th-ranked run defense and help the Bucs control the pace.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 19.
JAGUARS AT VIKINGS
Time: Noon, Ch. 2.
Records: Jaguars 6-4; Vikings 6-4.
Line: Vikings by 6.
Trend: The Vikings have covered the spread in five of their last seven.
Outlook: The Vikings' offense should be recharged with WR Randy Moss expected back in the lineup. He'll create one-on-one matchups elsewhere and allow QB Daunte Culpepper to move the ball with ease against a suspect Jaguars secondary.
Pick: Vikings 34, Jaguars 23.
SAINTS AT FALCONS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Records: Saints 4-6; Falcons 8-2.
Line: Falcons by 91/2.
Trends: The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Saints and 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games in November.
Outlook: QB Michael Vick continues to earn praise for his improvement in the Falcons' offense -- with his arm and legs. But don't discount RBs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, who have helped give the Falcons the No. 2 running game in the league. That's too much for the Saints to handle.
Pick: Falcons 28, Saints 18.
BILLS AT SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:15 p.m.
Records: Bills 4-6; Seahawks 6-4.
Line: Seahawks by 5.
Trend: Since 1992, the Seahawks are 12-27 ATS as a favorite of 3-1/2 to 91/2 points, including 1-3 this season.
Outlook: The Seahawks have had trouble putting teams away at home (1-3 ATS), so the Bills have a chance to keep this close, especially considering their sixth-ranked run defense. The difference in the game might be turnovers, given that Drew Bledsoe and Matt Hasselbeck have combined for 21 interceptions.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Bills 20.
JETS AT CARDINALS
Time: 3:15 p.m.
Records: Jets 7-3; Cardinals 4-6.
Line: Jets by 3.
Trend: The Jets are 4-1 ATS on the road this season.
Outlook: The Cardinals have been tough to beat at home (8-1 ATS in last nine), but the Jets should be able to control them with RB Curtis Martin. The Cardinals' run defense ranks 26th in the league and is allowing 4.8 yards per carry. The Jets will force QB Shaun King to beat them, and after his performance last week (three interceptions, four fumbles), that appears doubtful.
Pick: Jets 20, Cardinals 13.
DOLPHINS AT 49ERS
Time: 3:15 p.m.
Records: Dolphins 1-9; 49ers 1-9.
Line: 49ers by 1 (381/2).
Trend: Dolphins games have gone over the total five weeks in a row.
Outlook: It's hard to find a good matchup trend with two 1-9 teams, so let's go with an over/under trend for the first time this season. Let's also go with the Dolphins on the hope that the impact of a new head coach lingers longer than one week. How do you suppose Don Shula and Bill Walsh are feeling these days?
Pick: Dolphins 24, 49ers 21.
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
Time: 3:15 p.m., Ch. 2, 1000-AM.
Records Ravens 7-3; Patriots 9-1.
Line: Patriots by 7.
Trend: The Patriots are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.
Outlook: The Ravens have been a very good spread team (8-1 in last nine overall), but they're going into Foxboro without injured RB Jamal Lewis. QB Kyle Boller has played well of late, but if the Ravens' offense lacks balance, the Patriots should have their way with him.
Pick: Patriots 21, Ravens 12.
RAMS AT PACKERS
Time: 8 p.m. Monday, Ch. 7, 670-AM.
Records: Rams 5-5; Packers 6-4.
Line: Packers by 6.
Trends: The Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
Outlook: The Packers have won five in a row, and even a backfield decimated by injuries won't slow them against the Rams' 29th-ranked run defense. If QB Brett Favre must carry the load, he will with the help of pass protection that has surrendered a league-low five sacks.
Pick: Packers 31, Rams 21.
*--Top play Jeff Agrest Brad Biggs Mark Malone Dan McNeil Mike North CAPS--Best bet Sun-Times Sun-Times Ch. 2 WMVP WSCR COWBOYS -3-1/2 vs. Bears (Thursday) Bears Bears Bears Bears Cowboys*
Colts -9 vs. Lions (Thursday) Colts Colts Colts Colts Lions*
PATRIOTS -7 vs. Ravens Patriots PATRIOTS Patriots Ravens Ravens
Eagles -7 vs. GIANTS Eagles* Giants EAGLES Eagles* Giants
STEELERS -11 vs. Redskins Redskins Redskins Redskins Redskins Steelers
BENGALS -6 vs. Browns Bengals* Bengals* Browns Bengals* Browns
VIKINGS -6 vs. Jaguars Vikings Jaguars Vikings VIKINGS Jaguars
Buccaneers -2-1/2 vs. PANTHERS Buccaneers Buccaneers* Buccaneers* Buccaneers Panthers
CHIEFS -3 vs. Chargers Chargers* Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chargers
Titans -1-1/2 vs. TEXANS Texans Texans Titans* Titans Titans
FALCONS -91/2 vs. Saints Falcons Saints Falcons Saints* Falcons
JETS -3 vs. Cardinals Jets Jets* Jets Jets Jets*
SEAHAWKS -5 vs. Bills Bills Bills Seahawks* Seahawks SEAHAWKS
49ERS -1 vs. Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins 49ers 49ers
BRONCOS -11 vs. Raiders BRONCOS Broncos Raiders Raiders Broncos
PACKERS -6 vs. Rams Packers Packers Packers Packers Rams
Last week (season) 8-7-1 (77-79-4) 10-5-1 (84-72-4) 10-5-1 (78-78-4) 8-7-1 (84-72-4) 8-7-1 (90-66-4)
Best bet (season) 0-0-1 (5-5-1) 1-0 (7-4) 1-0 (7-4) 1-0 (5-6) 0-1 (6-5)
Best bet+Top plays (season) 3-0-1 (23-20-1) 4-0 (25-19) 3-0-1 (22-21-1) 3-1 (18-26) 1-2-1 (22-19-3)
BROWNS AT BENGALS
Time: Noon.
Records: Browns 3-7; Bengals 4-6.
Line: Bengals by 6.
Trends: The Browns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven November games and 0-4 ATS on the road this season.
Outlook: The Browns have lost four in a row and reportedly were close to firing coach Butch Davis before deciding to keep him for the rest of the season. On top of that, they might be without QB Jeff Garcia, who has shredded the Bengals. Under coach Marvin Lewis -- who isn't going anywhere -- the Bengals are 6-2 in November. After losing to the Browns in Week 6, QB Carson Palmer declared, "Not to take anything away from the Browns, but I think that's a team we can beat." He will.
Pick: Bengals 24, Browns 16.
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS
Time: Noon.
Records: Chargers 7-3; Chiefs 3-7.
Line: Chiefs by 3.
Trends: The Chargers are 8-1-1 ATS this season and 36-19 ATS coming off two or more consecutive victories ATS. ... The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 November games.
Outlook: Without RB Priest Holmes, the Chiefs will be hard-pressed to penetrate a Chargers run defense that ranks first in the league. We saw Monday night what backup Derrick Blaylock does against good defenses. The Chargers, on the other hand, shouldn't have a problem moving the ball against a Chiefs defense that ranks 29th against the pass and is allowing a whopping 15.2 yards per reception.
Pick: Chargers 31, Chiefs 25.
EAGLES AT GIANTS
Time: Noon, Fox-32, 1000-AM.
Records: Eagles 9-1; Giants 5-5.
Line: Eagles by 7.
Trends: The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 November games. ... The Giants are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.
Outlook: For those of us who didn't think the Eagles could cover a 101/2-point line against a tough Redskins defense, read this and weep: Since the 2001 season, when the Eagles made their first of three consecutive appearances in the NFC Championship Game, they are 46-19 ATS overall. The Eagles lost to a rookie quarterback in Week 9 when the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger whipped them. They won't let that happen again.
Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 16.Comment
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Chicago Tribune/Terry Bannon NFL
By Terry Bannon
Tribune staff reporter
November 25, 2004, 10:14 PM CST
Bucs (4-6) at Panthers (3-7)
Time: Noon Sunday
Line: Bucs by 2½
Last meeting: Carolina won 27-24 at Carolina on Nov. 9, 2003.
Key stat: The rookie receivers: Bucs Michael Clayton has 52 catches for 14.4 yard average; Panthers' Keary Colbert has 34 for 15.5.
Players to watch: Michael Pittman has averaged 101.3 rushing yards in last four games. Julius Peppers has 8 sacks for Panthers.
The buzz: Brian Griese and Pittman are playing well enough to give the Bucs a shot at a wild-card berth. Panthers having trouble scoring.
Bannon's pick: Bucs 24, Panthers 23
Browns (3-7) at Bengals (4-6)
Time: Noon Sunday
Line: Bengals by 6
Last meeting: Browns won 34-17 at Cleveland on Oct. 17.
Key stat: Browns have lost four straight since beating the Bengals.
Players to watch: Browns' Jeff Garcia has thrown 9 TD passes vs. 3 interceptions in three starts vs. Bengals. Chad Johnson has 4 TD catches in last five games vs. Browns.
The buzz: With three wins in last five weeks, Bengals have an eye on a .500 finish at least. In what looks like Butch Davis's final weeks as coach, Browns aren't generating much offense.
Bannon's pick: Bengals 24, Browns 13
Titans (4-6) at Texans (4-6)
Time: Noon Sunday
Line: Titans by 1½
Last meeting: Texans won 20-10 at Tennessee on Oct. 17.
Key stat: Titans only 2-3 at home.
Players to watch: Titans' Derrick Mason leads NFL with 62 catches, 4 for TDs. Texans' Andre Johnson has 57 (including league-leading 15 of 20 yards or more), 4 TDs.
The buzz: Can injury-ravaged Titans win second in a row? Unlike last week against the Jaguars, they have to face a legitimate starting quarterback in David Carr.
Bannon's pick: Texans 27, Titans 21
Chargers (7-3) at Chiefs (3-7)
Time: Noon Sunday
Line: Chiefs by 3
Last meeting: Chiefs won 28-24 at San Diego on Nov. 30, 2003.
Key stat: Chiefs have won five of last six meetings.
Players to watch: In four games with Chargers, Keenan McCardell has 22 catches for 13.6-average and 1 TD. Tony Gonzalez leads Chiefs with 56 caches, 5 for TDs.
The buzz: A real test of whether the surprising Chargers are playoff material. Can Drew Brees improve on his TD-interception ratio of 19-3?
Bannon's pick: Chargers 24, Chief 23
Jaguars (6-4) at Vikings (6-4)
Time/TV: WBBM-Ch. 2, Noon Sunday
Line: Vikings by 5½
Last meeting: Jaguars won 33-3 at Minnesota on Dec. 23, 2001.
Key stat: Jaguars are 4-1 in games decided by 3 points or less.
Players to watch: Jaguars QB Byron Leftwich (knee) and Vikings' WR Randy Moss (hamstring) are due back.
The buzz: Jaguars have pulled out close games this season, but Daunte Culpepper won't allow Jacksonville to be close in the fourth quarter. This Vikings team knows how to win.
Bannon's pick: Vikings 30, Jaguars 19
Eagles (9-1) at Giants (5-5)
Time/TV: WFLD-Ch. 32, WMVP AM-1000, Noon Sunday
Line: Eagles by 7
Last meeting: Eagles won 31-17 at Philadelphia on Sept. 12.
Key stat: Eagles have won six of last seven meetings, including three in a row.
Players to watch: Donovan McNabb has 22 TD passes vs. 5 interceptions. Eli Manning played better in debut than 17-of-37 passing stats indicate.
The buzz: Eagles can wrap up NFC East with a win and are cruising toward homefield advantage in the playoffs. Only huge game from Manning will prevent Giants from losing fourth straight.
Bannon's pick: Eagles 27, Giants 16
Redskins (3-7) at Steelers (9-1)
Time: Noon Sunday
Line: Steelers by 11
Last meeting: Steelers won 24-3 at Pittsburgh on Dec. 16, 2000.
Key stat: Steelers going for first 10-1 start since 1975, when they won their second Super Bowl.
Players to watch: Steelers' Jerome Bettis, who has run for 10 TDs, has three 100-yard rushing games in last four. Clinton Portis averaging 3.9 yards for Redskins.
The buzz: Washington's defense can test Roethlisberger, but Steelers won't allow Patrick Ramsey to do much.
Bannon's pick: Steelers 27, Redskins 13
Saints (4-6) at Falcons (8-2)
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday
Line: Falcons by 9½
Last meeting: Saints won 23-20 in overtime at New Orleans on Nov. 16, 2003.
Key stat: Falcons are 4-1 at home.
Players to watch: Saints' Aaron Brooks has thrown for 12 TDs vs. 8 interceptions. Michael Vick has thrown for 9 TDs and run for 1.
The buzz: Falcons have quietly taken charge of their division, and the Saints are one of the NFL's disappointments. Defense and Michael Vick win again.
Bannon's pick: Falcons 23, Saints 16
Ravens (7-3) at Patriots (9-1)
Time/TV: WBBM-Ch. 2, WMVP-AM 1000, 3:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: Patriots by 7
Last meeting: Patriots won 20-3 at New England on Jan. 2, 2000.
Key stat: Patriots have won three straight by an average of 16.3 points.
Players to watch: Ravens' safety Ed Reed leads NFL with 6 interceptions. Pats Corey Dillon, averaging 4.8 per carry for season, has at least 98 yards in last five games.
The buzz: Two well-coached teams who know how to get the most out of what they have. Ravens will make Pats work, but they lack the offense to pull out this road upset, especially if Jamal Lewis doesn't play.
Bannon's pick: Patriots 24, Ravens 16
Jets (7-3) at Cardinals (4-6)
Time: 3:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: Jets by 3
Last meeting: Jets won 12-7 at New York on Nov. 7, 1999.
Key stat: Cards have won three straight home games by average of 11.7 points.
Players to watch: Justin McCareins leads Jets with 32 catches and 3 TD catches, all the scores coming in the last four weeks. Rookie Larry Fitzgerald leads Cardinals with 39 catches, 4 TDs.
The buzz: Cards have quarterback problems, but Jets can do enough with RB Curtis Martin to allow Quincy Carter to lead them to another win.
Bannon's pick: Jets 24, Cardinals 22
Dolphins (1-9) at 49ers (1-9)
Time: 3:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: Off
Last meeting: 49ers won 21-0 at San Francisco on Dec. 16, 2001.
Key stat: 49ers have averaged 28.3 points in last three home games but have gone only 1-2.
Players to watch: At least the tight ends are having decent years: Dolphins Randy McMichael has 49 catches, 3 TDs; 49ers' Eric Johnson has 58, 2 TDs.
The buzz: Can't miss this one if you love the draft. Loser has the lead in the race for the first pick in mediocre draft.
Bannon's pick: 49ers 26, Dolphins 17
Bills (4-6) at Seahawks (6-4)
Time: 3:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: Seahawks by 5
Last meeting: Seahawks won 23-20 at Buffalo on Nov. 18, 2001.
Key stat: Bills are 0-4 on the road.
Players to watch: Willis McGahee averaging 90 yards rushing in last six (Bills 4-2). Seahawks Shaun Alexander has rushed for 627 yards in last four games (Seahawks 3-1).
The buzz: If the Seahawks have developed a killer instinct, this would be the game to show it. Bills' best chance for upset is a big game from McGahee.
Bannon's pick: Seahawks 26, Bills 17
Raiders (3-7) at Broncos (7-3)
Time/TV: ESPN, WSCR-AM 670, 7:30 p.m. Sunday
Line: Broncos by 11
Last meeting: Broncos won 31-3 at Oakland on Oct. 17.
Key stat: Broncos have won last three meetings by an average of 20.7 points.
Players to watch: Raiders' Shane Lechler leads NFL with 48-yard punting average. Broncos' Jake Plummer has thrown 21 TD passes vs. 10 interceptions.
The buzz: The Broncos have taken over this once great rivalry. The potential for Raider upsets isn't there.
Bannon's pick: Broncos 34, Raiders 21
Rams (5-5) at Packers (6-4)
Time: WLS-Ch. 7, WSCR-AM 670, 8 p.m. Monday.
Line: Packers by 6
Last meeting: Rams won 34-24 at St. Louis on Oct. 19, 2003.
Key stat: Packers have allowed NFL-low 5 sacks.
Players to watch: Packers' Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has 5 sacks in last three games, 6½ for the season. Rams' Leonard Little has 4.5.
The buzz: Packers have won five straight and should take advantage of the Rams' defense, which doesn't look like the unit Lovie Smith coached last year. Rams can't slow Brett Favre, who has thrown 19 TD passes.
Bannon's pick: Packers 28, Rams 20Comment
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Miami herald/Greg Cote NFL picks
Interconference
DOLPHINS AT 49ERS
4:15 p.m. Sunday, Chs. 4, 12
You wanna talk about two teams that could use some of Ricky Williams' holistic healing! Once-proud franchises converge with both in the momentary toilet, doing the backstroke for the dubious honor of next spring's No. 1 draft pick. If we had a Dog of the Week Hall, this game would have its own wing. Dolphs and Niners together are minus-31 in turnovers, and NFL hasn't seen a worse combined-record matchup this late in a season since Buffalo (1-10) and Carolina (1-11) dueled in clown outfits on Dec. 9, 2001. If Dennis Erickson had any less job security, he'd be Butch Davis. Frans' awful defense has yielded 114 points in past three games and might make even banged up A.J. Feeley look good. Miami, playing a bit better, has given away what should have been two straight wins. Verdict? Bad beats abysmal. Dolphins.
• Cote says: Dolphins, 27-20.
• Favorite: Off board.
½
Records: Dolphins 1-9; 49ers 1-9.
Dolphins injuries: LB Tony Bua (quad) and QB Jay Fiedler (neck/IR) are out; G Jeno James (knee) and LB Zach Thomas (hamstring) are doubtful; QB AJ Feeley (back/buttocks), FB Rob Konrad (concussion), K Olindo Mare (right calf) and RB Sammy Morris (ribs) are questionable.
49ers injuries: C Jeremy Newberry (back/knee) and CB Ahmed Plummer (neck) are out; LB Ray Wells (ankle) is doubtful; CB Jimmy Williams (toe) is questionable.
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• REDSKINS AT STEELERS
1 p.m. Sunday
Hot-running Steelers have key injuries (WR Plaxico Burress, LB Kendrell Bell), and Washers bring enough defense to challenge Big Ben and that ball-control, clock-owning offense. Can't quite see an outright shocker at Pittville, but chance Skins staying inside a big betting number.
• Cote says: Steelers, 21-17.
• Favorite: Steelers by 10 ½.
* *
Records: Redskins 3-7; Steelers 9-1.
Redskins injuries: LB LaVar Arrington (knee), LB Mike Barrow (knee), DE Phillip Daniels (groin) and G Randy Thomas (hamstring) are out; DT Jermaine Haley (knee) is doubtful; K John Hall (right groin) is questionable.
Steelers injuries: LB Kendrell Bell (groin), WR Plaxico Burress (hamstring), DE Brett Keisel (hamstring) and CB Chad Scott (quadricep) are out; LB James Harrison (shoulder), CB Chidi Iwuoma (hamstring), TE Jay Riemersma (groin) and RB Duce Staley (hamstring) are questionable.
• JAGUARS AT VIKINGS
1 p.m. Sunday, Chs. 4, 12
Important game in jockeying for playoff position as both teams try to reverse a recent fade pattern. Purples are 4-1 at home and could get a goose if Randy Moss returns from injury. Jax could have Byron Leftwich back, but make it a venue call in battle of head coaches ( Mike Tice, Jack Del Rio) who were Viking teammates in '90s.
• Cote says: Vikings, 30-20.
• Favorite: Vikings by 5 ½.
* * *
Records: Jaguars 6-4; Vikings 6-4.
Jaguars injuries: QB Byron Leftwich (knee) and TE George Wrighster (back) are questionable.
Vikings injuries: LB Raonall Smith (concussion) is out; WR Randy Moss (hamstring) is doubtful.
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• BILLS AT SEAHAWKS
4:15 p.m. Sunday
Matt Hasselbeck's expected return lifts Seabirds, who'll rebound from a subpar effort vs. Miami. Also like a pick-happy Space Needle defense over a somewhat mistake-prone Drew Bledsoe.
• Cote says: Seahawks, 24-17.
• Favorite: Seahawks by 5.
* * ½
Records: Bills 4-6; Seahawks 6-4.
Bills injuries: CB Troy Vincent (knee) is doubtful; WR Josh Reed (knee) is questionable.
Seahawks injuries: LB Chad Brown (knee) and LB Tracy White (hamstring) are out; QB Matt Hasselbeck (thigh) is questionable.
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• JETS AT CARDINALS
4:15 p.m. Sunday
Upset! Backup Bowl finds Quincy Carter and Shaun King pitching, with Jets suffering far more of a falloff from Chad Pennington. Planes have been rather ordinary since a 5-0 breakout, and Redbirds have won three straight at home.
• Cote says: Cardinals, 20-17.
• Favorite: Jets by 3.
* *
Records: Jets 7-3; Cardinals 4-6.
Jets injuries: QB Chad Pennington (right shoulder) is out; WR Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring), LB Jason Glenn (forearm), LB Victor Hobson (ankle) and S Jon McGraw (groin) are questionable.
Cardinals injuries: RB Troy Hambrick (foot) is out; RB Emmitt Smith (ankle) is questionable.
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AFC
• TITANS AT TEXANS
1 p.m. Sunday
Winner gets to pretend it still has a shot at playoffs. Like Ten-Gallon Hats to end three-game skid, in a slight upset. Texers beat Tenners 20-10 five weeks ago. Now they've got the crowd and a QB, David Carr, who rates out at a heady 106.1 in his past four home games.
• Cote says: Texans, 23-20.
• Favorite: Titans by 1.
* * ½
Records: Titans 4-6; Texans 4-6.
Titans injuries: T Brad Hopkins (hand), S Justin Sandy (foot), S Lance Schulters (foot), S Tank Williams (knee) and CB Andre Woolfolk (elbow) are out; LB Rocky Boiman (calf), RB Chris Brown (toe), DT Albert Haynesworth (elbow), S Scott McGarrahan (thigh), T Fred Miller (ankle), LB Robert Reynolds (concussion) and CB Samari Rolle (knee) are questionable.
Texans injuries: S Jason Simmons (head) is doubtful; S Marcus Coleman (shoulder), LB Jay Foreman (shoulder), RB Tony Hollings (hamstring) and DE Gary Walker (foot) are questionable.
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• BROWNS AT BENGALS
1 p.m. Sunday
Even with a Cleveland win, Butch Davis still would be on a seat en fuego and unlikely to return. Earthtones are on a 5-1 series run including 34-17 last month, but buck the trend. Jeff Garcia is iffy, and Cincy has improved on D and will win turnover battle. Sorry, Butch.
• Cote says: Bengals, 27-23.
• Favorite: Off board.
* ½
Records: Browns 3-7; Bengals 4-6.
Browns injuries: WR Andre' Davis (toe), QB Jeff Garcia (right shoulder), WR Andre King (ankle) and RB Lee Suggs (toe) are questionable.
Bengals injuries: CB Rashad Bauman (Achilles) is doubtful; CB Deltha O'Neal (elbow) and DE Carl Powell (knee) are questionable.
• CHARGERS AT CHIEFS
1 p.m. Sunday
Diego is the better team here, but due a stumble. Wildly inconsistent KayCee is the most dangerous bad team in football and is due one of its ''up'' weeks. Chiefs have won three straight in series and are one of few teams that can hang with Bolts in a shootout. Hesitate, with Priest Holmes out again, but still hunch Arrowhead gang.
• Cote says: Chiefs, 37-34.
• Favorite: Off board.
* * *
Records: Chargers 7-3; Chiefs 3-7.
Chargers injuries: DT Eric Downing (knee) is questionable.
Chiefs injuries: LB Monty Beisel (calf), RB Priest Holmes (knee) and T John Welbourn (knee/hip flexor) are doubtful; DE Vonnie Holliday (knee), DT Junior Siavii (ankle), TE Kris Wilson (ankle) and S Jerome Woods (knee) are questionable.
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• RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
4: 15 p.m. Sunday
It's a Patriots offense that has Brady-bunched 96 points in past three games vs. a Ravens defense that has allowed only five TDs over past six games. The thing is, both teams have big D's -- they rank 1-2 in combined sacks and interceptions -- but Balts can't compare on offense, especially with Jamal Lewis out injured. English have won 14 straight at home. Why stop now?
• Cote says: Patriots, 24-14.
• Favorite: Patriots by 7.
* * * *
Records: Ravens 7-3; Patriots 9-1.
Ravens injuries: RB Jamal Lewis (ankle), RB Musa Smith (leg) and P Dave Zastudil (shoulder) are out. LB Cornell Brown (infection), TE Todd Heap (ankle), CB Chris McAlister (shoulder) and CB Deion Sanders (foot) are doubtful.
Patriots injuries: CB Ty Law (foot) is out; CB Tyrone Poole (knee) is doubtful; LB Matt Chatham (hamstring), CB Randall Gay (arm), LB Roman Phifer (calf) and CB Asante Samuel (shoulder) are questionable.
• RAIDERS AT BRONCOS
8:30 p.m. Sunday, ESPN
Jake Plummer has a fat 135.2 passer rating in past three starts vs. Oakland, which presents a really, truly bad defense. Denver has won three straight in series including 31-3 last month. There is the risk of home-team malaise here, but an even better chance of a prime-time rout.
• Cote says: Broncos, 41-17.
• Favorite: Broncos by 11.
* *
Records: Raiders 3-7; Broncos 7-3.
Raiders injuries: TE Courtney Anderson (knee), WR Johnnie Morant (foot), LB Travian Smith (knee) and G Ron Stone (knee) are out; RB Tyrone Wheatley (foot) and WR Alvis Whitted (hamstring) are questionable.
Broncos injuries: DT Luther Elliss (calf) and DE Trevor Pryce (back) are out.
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NFC
• EAGLES AT GIANTS
1 p.m. Sunday, Chs. 7, 29
Birds have such a big division lead they can clinch NFC East title with a win -- the only playoff spot that can be sewn up this week. That would tie the 1985 Bears and '97 49ers as the only teams to clinch division in 11 games (in the 16-game era). I'll take Phils -- they've won three straight in series, and bring enough D to continue Eli Manning's rugged indoctrination -- but like Biggies to stay close.
• Cote says: Eagles, 23-20.
• Favorite: Eagles by 7.
* * ½
Records: Eagles 9-1; Giants 5-5.
Eagles injuries: G Artis Hicks (knee) and DE Jerome McDougle (knee) are out; RB Reno Mahe (ankle) and LB Nate Wayne (hamstring) are doubtful; CB Roderick Hood (back) and DT Corey Simon (groin/ankle) are questionable.
Giants injuries: S Jack Brewer (calf/lower leg) is doubtful; LB Barrett Green (knee/ankle), LB Nick Greisen (ankle), C Shaun O'Hara (ankle), T Marques Sullivan (ankle), RB Derrick Ward (concussion) and S Gibril Wilson (neck) are questionable.
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• BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS
1 p.m. Sunday
Upset! Take a home 'dog here, especially one that has put up 72 points in winning two straight. Carolina swept series last year, knows how to beat the TeeBees, and hot Brian Griese (sorry, Bob) is due for the kind of game that snuffed his future in Denver and then put him on a fast track out of Miami.
• Cote says: Panthers, 19-17.
• Favorite: Buccaneers by 2 ½.
* *
Records: Buccaneers 4-6; Panthers 3-7.
Buccaneers injuries: S Jermaine Phillips (arm) is out; CB Corey Ivy (knee) is questionable.
Panthers injuries: LB Dan Morgan (concussion) is out; RB Brad Hoover (hip), K John Kasay (calf), TE Kris Mangum (ankle) and DE Kemp Rasmussen (neck) are questionable.
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• SAINTS AT FALCONS
4:05 p.m. Sunday
''AAAWWWK!'' warbles the Upset Bird. ''I must be crazy. Must be craawwk!'' Call it a risky hunch, but I think Aaron Brooks will put up large numerals against Falcs' pass-D, and manage to out-point his second cousin, Michael Vick. (More relations: 'Lanta coach Jim Mora is the son of N'Awlins' all-time winningest coach, the original Jim Mora). Saints swept series a year ago. ''Is it a daring pick?'' asks U-Bird, rhetorically. 'Well, as Dan Quayle once said, `If you don't succeed, you risk failure.' AAWWK!''
• Cote says: Saints, 31-27.
• Favorite: Falcons by 9 ½.
* *
Records: Saints 4-6; Falcons 8-2.
Saints injuries: WR Michael Lewis (ankle) and LB Derrick Rodgers (back) are doubtful; S Steve Gleason (hamstring), G Kendyl Jacox (knee) and CB Mike McKenzie (knee) are questionable.
Falcons injuries: RB Justin Griffith (knee) is questionable.
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MONDAY NIGHT
• RAMS AT PACKERS
9 p.m., Chs. 10, 25
Pack has won five straight while Rams have been sliding, but don't dismiss St. Lou -- they've intercepted Brett Favre seven times in past two meetings. Despite it all, figure the combination of Lambeau and Favre on a Monday night will somehow keep the Cheeseheads happy.
• Cote says: Packers, 28-24.
• Favorite: Off board.
* * *
Records: Rams 5-5; Packers 6-4.
Rams injuries: G Chris Dishman (knee) is out; CB Dejuan Groce (knee) is doubtful; WR Torry Holt (knee) is questionable.
Packers injuries: RB Ahman Green (ribs), RB Nicolas Luchey (shoulder), TE David Martin (knee) and RB Walter Williams (ankle) are questionable.
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How the Darts Landed
The Upset Bird is proud as an American bald eagle and preening like a peacock in heat today. Why not? Numbers like 14-2 overall and 11-4-2 vs. the Vegas line are not every-week occurrences. If they were, I'd be retired, and spending big money on a mummified grilled-cheese sandwich bearing the likeness of the Virgin Mary.
The twin blitzkrieg sent The Friday Page archivists scrambling to lend historical perspective. The findings: Our .875 straight-up matches the same 14-2 set during 2003 for our second-best week ever, trailing only a .917 (11-1) set during maiden year 1991. The .719 vs. the point spread ties our 10th-best week ever. We rolled a .786 (11-3) earlier this year. Record is .857 (12-2), done thrice, in 1991, 1996 and 2001.
Overall vs. spread
Last Week 14-2 .875 11-4-1 .719
Season 101-59 .631 76-78-6 .494
Final 2003 161-105-1, .605 127-118-11, .518Comment
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NY Newsday/Ed Mcnamara nfl
BY ED McNAMARA
November 25, 2004
Best bet: Bucs
All picks against the spread
THURSDAY
Colts (7-3) at Lions (4-6)
Line: Colts by 9. Over-Under: 53 1/2.
No matter how bad they are, the Lions often overachieve on Turkey Day. Last year they upset Green Bay, and they covered three of their last four Thanksgiving games. So maybe a mysterious force will stop streaking Peyton Manning and the league's top offense. That's Detroit's best hope, unless KR Eddie Drummond gets loose a few times.
The pick: Colts
Bears (4-6) at Cowboys (3-7)
Line: Cowboys by 3.1/2 O-U: 36.
With apologies to the late Bob Marley: "Bad 'Boys, Cowboys, whatcha gonna do when we all watch you?" Probably be embarrassed again. Kevin the Cowboy Hater is thanks that Dallas has dropped six of seven. With Vinny Testaverde hurt, rookie QB Drew Henson makes his first start, a reliable go-against angle.
The pick: Bears
SUNDAY
Giants: Don't read his lips
Eagles (9-1) at Giants (5-5)
Line: Eagles by 7. O-U: 37 1/2.
A message from Esmeralda the Psychic to Giants co-owner Wellington Mara: "Well, which is worse, arriving only four minutes early for a team meeting or constantly using foul language on the sideline? Perhaps Coach Coughlin needs anger-management training. Mr. Straight Arrow is getting bent out of shape." The spin on Eli Manning's starting debut seems overly positive to me. OK, he got sacked only once and looked sharper than Kurt Warner. Let's see how he handles the Eagles' blitzes. Mr. Mara will cringe as Terrell Owens dances twice in the end zone.
The pick: Eagles
Jets: Wince with Quince
Jets (7-3) at Cardinals (4-6)
Line: Jets by 3. O-U: 36 1/2.
Nobody plays down to the opponent's level like the Jets. With coordinator Paul Hackett playing not to lose with Quincy Carter, expect another ugly one against a weak team. Arizona has covered three straight at home and is 10-3 ATS as an underdog in its last 13 there. Expect the Cardinals to blitz a lot, as the Browns did successfully. Arizona's new starting QB, Shaun King, reminds me of Carter (athletic but mistake-prone). If he can minimize mistakes, Jets fans are in for more aggravation, their birthright.
The pick: Cardinals
Marquee matchup
Ravens (7-3) at Patriots (9-1)
Line: Patriots by 7. O-U: 36.
The week's most intriguing game features the NFL's most dynamic defenses. Baltimore has covered six straight; the Pats are 7-2-1 ATS and 19-3-2 ATS in their last 24 regular-season games. But they usually don't win by a lot, and their secondary is severely beat up. Even with RB Jamal Lewis out, the Ravens could stay close. Without him, they covered against the Eagles.
The pick: Ravens
Around the league
Titans (4-6) at Texans (4-6)
Line: Titans by 1 1/2. O-U: 43 1/2.
If not for Jeff Fisher, the league's most underrated coach, injury-ravaged Tennessee might be battling the 49ers and Dolphins for the No. 1 overall pick. Houston almost beat the Packers and should complete a sweep of the Titans.
The pick: Texans.
Redskins (3-7) at Steelers (9-1)
Line: Steelers by 11. O-U: 36.
Behind rookie Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh has won and covered eight straight. Nothing lasts forever, and LB Kendrell Bell and WR Plaxico Burress won't play. Washington's second-ranked defense blitzes well, and Cincinnati sacked Big Ben seven times. As bad as the 'Skins are, they've lost by more than 10 only twice.
The pick: Redskins
Browns (3-7) at Bengals (4-6)
Line: Bengals by 6. O-U: 38.
Ed the Jets fan says his Merrill Lynch colleagues follow my investment advice. So I'm going to charge them $35 apiece, the yearly fee I pay whether they select winning stocks or not. The Bengals look like a blue-chip play in the Battle of Ohio. Their defense has finally meshed and the Brownies are done. QB Kelly Holcomb starts for Cleveland.
The pick: Bengals
Chargers (7-3) at Chiefs (3-7)
Line: Chiefs by 3. O-U: 52.
San Diego (league-best 8-1-1 ATS, seven straight ******) is overdue for a dud, and I was tempted to take the Chiefs. Then I thought of their defense and couldn't. Priest Holmes (knee) is out again, and without him KC's offense isn't the same.
The pick: Chargers
Bucs (4-6) at Panthers (3-7)
Line: Bucs by 2 1/2. O-U: 39.
Tampa Bay has been in every game since Week 3. Brian Griese has the offense rolling and the Bucs' defense never was the problem. After beating the 49ers and Cards, Carolina should regress.
The pick: Bucs
Jaguars (6-4) at Vikings (6-4)
Line: Vikings by 6. O-U: 46 1/2.
Beware of the away advantage. With road teams doing so well (86-70-4 ATS), shouldn't home teams get the generic three-point edge instead of spotting it? Randy Moss is back for the Vikings, but their shaky defense can't be trusted. QB Byron Leftwich returns for the Jags (5-2 ATS as 'dogs).
The pick: Jaguars
Saints (4-6) at Falcons (8-2)
Line: Falcons by 91/2. O-U: 46.
Atlanta has ruled the Saints in recent years (12-3 ATS), which may or may not be significant. Michael Vick adds to his highlight reel against the NFL's worst 'D' (29 ppg, 421 yards).
The pick: Falcons
Bills (4-6) at Seahawks (6-4)
Line: Seahawks by 5. O-U: 38.
Since a 3-0 start, the Seahawks are 1-6 ATS and may be the shakiest first-place team in NFL history. Last week they barely beat hopeless Miami. RB Shaun Alexander is Seattle's best weapon, and improving Buffalo has a strong defense.
The pick: Bills
Dolphins (1-9) at 49ers (1-9)
Line: Off (Miami QB Feeley questionable). O-U: Off.
Behold the ultimate horror, the Super Bowl from the dark side. Even holistic medicine disciple Ricky Williams admits these terminal failures can't be cured. Unless you must satisfy your morbid curiosity, watch Paid Programming instead. At least Miami has a few players that other teams would want.
The pick: Dolphins
Raiders (3-7) at Broncos (7-3)
Line: Broncos by 11. O-U: 45.
The difference between going 11-5 against the spread and going 5-11 are two "meaningless" late TDs, three odd bounces and four bad calls. We are the pawns of fate, and being lucky is the best revenge. Masters of their domain: The Broncos are 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine against the AFC West, and Mike Shanahan owns the Raiders.
The pick: Broncos
MONDAY
Rams (5-5) at Packers (6-4)
Line: Packers by 6. O-U: 52.
The Rams are in a 6-15 ATS road slump, and a night game in Tundra Town in late November puts a dome team in a severe discomfort zone. St. Louis is almost out of DBs and its special teams are comical. Since huge DT Grady Jackson (Most Valuable Fat Guy) returned, Green Bay's 'D' has perked up.
The pick: PackersComment
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