NBA/NCAAB trends or systems..post here for the upcoming seasons.

[linemover]

looks good-anyone have anymore

[bgh2003]

If you have the bankroll to do it, the NBA Road Chase system is very good.

The system applies to every road trip that is 4 games or longer. Road trips of 3 or less do not qualify. Go to NBA.com and pull up each team's schedule. Then note the road trips of 4 games or longer for each team. (I think the first such road trip starts November 16, when the Bulls begin a 5 gamer).

When the first qualifying trip comes up, bet against the road team. If they lose ATS, you close out the road trip, and wait for the next one.

If the road team wins, however, you spread out the cost of making up the loss over the remaining number of qualifying road trips.

For example: You start the season wanting to win $200 per series. There are 40 (just a hypothetical number) qualifying road trips during the entire NBA schedule. Say that the road team on the first 2 qualifying road trips loses ATS in the first game of each trip (after which time you close out each trip). On the third qualifying road trip, however, the road team wins the first game. There are 37 qualifying road trips remaining. You divide the cost of winning back what you lost on the game ($220) by 37. Now you need to bet an additional $5.95 (the quotient of 220 / 37) on the next game of the road trip. You keep doing this, adjusting your bets as required, until the road team loses a game on the road trip. When it does, you close out that trip and wait for the next one.

This is an exceptionally profitable series, because any seasoned NBA handicapper will tell you that a team NEVER ****** every game of a long road trip. Travel, distractions on the road, hostile playing environments. . . all of these eventually add up to an ATS loss by the road team.

[GolfFSU]

BGH

I have heard of that system. I actually followed it for a while last year. It was very streaky.... I think there were several times that the road team covered all of the games in a trip. Have to be careful with this one, if you are going to do it, you have to play it the entire season. You cant quit (like i ended up doing) or even worse start it at any time during the season.

I agree, if you have the bankroll, you can make money, but dont expect it to come all at once.

[bgh2003]

FSU

You are correct; there were a few series last year where the road team did cover all games of the trip. I know that the Spurs--recently a terrific road team and a better road underdog--did it once. But the system hit at over 75 percent last year, if I am not mistaken.

[TRUCKIN]

frank

in the system that you improved go against any fav of 9 or more
52.7%
you added 2 other conditions to bring it to 56% and then 60.4%

my question is on the 60.4% system
do all 3 of those conditons apply for it to be 60.4% or is it just go against a 9 point fav if they were a dog and oppenent won there last game

thanks
hope you can understand what i am trying to ask

[frankb03]

Originally posted by bgh2003
If you have the bankroll to do it, the NBA Road Chase system is very good.

The system applies to every road trip that is 4 games or longer. Road trips of 3 or less do not qualify. Go to NBA.com and pull up each team's schedule. Then note the road trips of 4 games or longer for each team. (I think the first such road trip starts November 16, when the Bulls begin a 5 gamer).

When the first qualifying trip comes up, bet against the road team. If they lose ATS, you close out the road trip, and wait for the next one.

If the road team wins, however, you spread out the cost of making up the loss over the remaining number of qualifying road trips.

I highly advise NOT using this system. Last season teams on 4 game road trips that cover the first three games went 4-1 ATS in game 4 of the road trip.

Below is game 4 ATS results from last season:
11/15 Utah W
2/2 NJ Nets W
2/28 Portland L
3/7 Pacers W
3/7 Memphis W

A $100 player would have lost $1650 with each loss. This season the player would have lost $6500 on those 5 games. The system would have had to be sucessful 65 other times to break even. Meaning the system had to be successful 94% of the time.

[frankb03]

Re: frank

Originally posted by TRUCKIN
in the system that you improved go against any fav of 9 or more
52.7%
you added 2 other conditions to bring it to 56% and then 60.4%

my question is on the 60.4% system
do all 3 of those conditons apply for it to be 60.4% or is it just go against a 9 point fav if they were a dog and oppenent won there last game

thanks
hope you can understand what i am trying to ask

First let me apologize. I messed up the paramters that improved the system. I've corrected that post.

Play against a favorite of -9 or more that WON their last game as an away dog. 56.1%

Play against a favorite of -9 or more that WON their last game as an away dog vs an opponent off a win. 60.4%

TRUCKIN, all parameter must apply.

[paulsam1]

Play Against the Winner of an Overtime Game but only if they Play the very next day..

If the Overtime Game is at Denver and the Winner of that game plays the next night It becomes a double Bet..

[TRUCKIN]

thanks frank
your hard work and imfo is much appreciated

truckin

[Hoosier Daddy]

[rwall]

I didn't do any research on it, but i was told last year to play against any road team playing at Miami in an early Sunday game.

the curse of the South Beach Night Life for teams arriving on Sat. nights

[piratesuncle]

NBA Road System

Let me say right off the bat that I am not advocating this system as a sure-fire way to put extra cash in your pocket. People have expressed interest, so I'm going to outline the way I use it. It is a martingale system, which everyone says stay away from. But I've used it since 1998, and it has finished in the black every year, including +88.12 units last year. That doesn't mean it won't completely cave and lose 500 units this year. I just wanted to be clear on that.

First, I'll recap what the system is all about. It's really very simple, and completely takes the handicapping aspect out of the game. If you enjoy looking at trends, stats, matchups, chemistry, schedules, etc., this isn't for you.

All you have to do is look for teams that are going on a 3-game or longer road trip. They must be consecutive games on the road, and if the trip is split up over the All-Star break, it is usually discarded. This is also for the regular season only, although I think nvralock used a variation of it during the playoffs with some success.

Once you have your team, you simply bet AGAINST them and bet on the UNDER. There are some teams where we don't go against them and/or we don't bet the total. I will cover that later. On the side bet, if the road team ******, you must double your bet on the 2nd game of the trip. If they cover again, you must double THAT bet on the 3rd game, and so on. Here's an example with the Portland Jailblazers from last year. Let's assume we are trying to win one unit, and we have already decided that our unit play for the system is going to be $100.
3/14 Port(+8') @ Minn...Risk $110 to win $100
Port wins 92-83 (we are down $110)
3/16 Port(+1) @ Milw...Risk $231 to win $210
Port wins 100-99 (we are down $341)
3/17 Port(+8) @ Indy...Risk $485.10 to win $441
Indy wins 80-71 (we are up $100)
You always have to risk enough to win whatever your losses are on the trip PLUS your unit play. As soon as Portland doesn't cover, that is the end of the betting for that trip. Don't try to extend it for whatever reason.

The premise is exactly the same for the totals bet. You just bet the under until the game goes under, or until every game in the series has gone over.


I mentioned earlier that there are some teams that I don't bet against and there also some teams where I won't bet the under on their games. Using these is just my attempt to dodge 1 or 2 losing road trips during the year, because let's face it, when you lose every game in a series, it hurts like a son-of-a-bitch. If we can miss a couple of those big losses, it's worth missing out on a couple of units in wins. Here are the series bets that I NEVER make on ANY length of road trip:
Lakers TOTALS
Clippers TOTALS
Mavericks TOTALS
Spurs SIDES
Those are set in stone and I never bet the under with those teams, nor do I bet against San Antonio, regardless of how long the road trip is. There are also quite a few more that I don't bet on 3-game road trips ONLY. Here are those:
Sixers SIDES
Nets SIDES
Knicks SIDES
Bulls TOTALS
Magic TOTALS
Jazz TOTALS
Trailblazers SIDES
Rockets TOTALS
Grizzlies SIDES
Grizzlies TOTALS
These strictly come from my opinion, and they could be perfect all year long. Whether you follow them or not is up to you.

Another question that comes us is "what about pushes?" Well, if it happens in the first game of a 3-game trip, I throw out that bet. If it happens on the first game of a 4 or 5-game trip, I just reduce the length of the trip by one game, and continue on (assuming that the team does not now fall into one of my 3-game trip rules). If it happens after the first game, tough shit. That part of the system sucks, but there's nothing you can do about it.

Bankroll, bankroll, bankroll. It's hard to say exactly how much you need to play this system faithfully. One tip I've used is to see what your bet would be on the 5th game of a road trip (after doubling each time), and then double that number. If you have the means, then just pick your unit size and go with it. But DON'T increase your unit size as your bankroll grows. Suppose the first half of the season, we cruise with very few hiccups. Then, in the 2nd half (after you've increased your unit size about 250%), we lose 6 3-gamers, 3 4-gamers, and (God forbid), a 5-gamer. If you haven't increased your unit size, you could probably survive. But if you have, you are probably trying to raise rent money by hooking out on a corner hoping Blackjack comes along because he tips so well.

[paulsam1]

Orlando was the Play tonight.. Dallas coming off a OT win at home vs G.S then travels to Orlando and is a road Fav.. Easy Money..

[TRUCKIN]

golfFSU

i have 3 questions on your trends/systems posted
on your first post on page #1
you posted play under on any team off a game at utah and 1 or more days rest
is the rest part correct what about w/no rest or 3+ days

also in that post can you explain #18 i dont understand

and in the system posted play on top defensive teams and listed those 6 teams
do the teams in that system change during the year based on the numbers or do you just use those 6 teams all year?

thanks
truckin

[GolfFSU]

TRUCKIN

AS FAR AS i KNOW THE FIRST PART IS CORRECT.


#18 MEANS THAT UTAH IS 12-1 ATS AS A FAV OR DOG OF LESS THAN 4 POINTS AND ARE PLAYING AWAY OFF 3 AWAY GAMES.

I BELIEVE THEY CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. NOT REALLY SURE THOUGH.

TOP 6 DEFENSIVE TEAMS THIS YEAR:
ORLANDO
MILWAUKEE
PHOENIX
DALLAS
CHICAGO
GOLDEN STATE

----- 2004=-05 SEASON WILL START TRACKING 4 WEEKS INTO THE YEAR. AROUND 12/2/04.

FROM NBA. C OM


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