NCAA Football - Saturday 10/23

[ez winners]

This is my first play for this upcoming weekend. I'll be adding to this thread through out the week as I finialize my plays.....



5 STAR: MISSOURI (-2.5) OVER Oklahoma State

I like the Tigers at home laying the small number here. I always like to take a look at unranked home favorites against ranked opponents. That has been a profitable situation for many seasons. Missouri has also had the better of this series, winning five out of the last six meetings between these two teams. In that span the Tigers are also 5-1 against the spread against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State will try to pound the ball with their running game that is fourth in the nation in rushing, averaging 268 yards per game. But the Tigers will be up to the task having just faced Texas, and the Longhorn running game that is second in the nation averaging 293 yards per game. In that game with Texas, the Tigers held the Horns to only 193 yards rushing, 100 yards below their average. The Oklahoma State passing offense is not very strong, ranking 110th in the nation, so the Tigers can really load up to stop the running game. Missouri has a balanced offensive attack, that ranks 37th in the nation in total offense (60th pass and 27th run). I look for them to do most of their damage through the air against a Cowboys pass defense that ranks 74th in the nation. Brad Smith could have a break out game here. A lot of Oklahoma State's early success has been due to turnovers. The Cowboys have forced their opponents into 17 turnovers and they are second in the nation in turnover margin. But Missouri has also forced their opponents into 17 turnovers and rank 5th in the nation in turnover margin. Missouri is 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 home games, and they are 3-1 against the spread in their last four games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. I think Oklahoma State is too one dimension to beat a balanced team like the Tigers on the road. Lay the points here!




2004 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD

5 STAR RECORD 7-5 (+11.65 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 14-12-1 (+2.10 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 16-16-1 (-1.20 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 11-8 (+2.20 UNITS)

OVERALL RECORD 48-41-2 (+14.75 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $1475.00

[BIGTEX]

John,

Do you have any idea on the Texas Tech/UT game? Thought you might since you live in TX. I like Tech here

[ez winners]

I'm still taking a look at that one, but I would have to say that I'm leaning toward Texas.

[RavenTerpsFan]

john,

I concur with your statement of unranked H/FAV vs top25 opponents is a $$$ making bet.
The AGGIES exposed the Cowboys weakness in many ways.
Tigers coaching staff will be looking at the tape of that game Many times over.:cool:
Mizzou gave Longhorns ALL they could handle and should take it too OK.ST. fairly E-Z,Tigers 5-0 ats off a conf./loss.
Cowboys,1-3-1ats as Dog & 1-2-1ats on conf.rd.l/yr.

I'm making a 5un.wager on Mizzou today!!!

GOOD LUCK TO U$...RTF:D

[Southern Dandy]

GL EZ,

Like the pick. Unfortunately, our owls blew it this weekend. Looks like Navy -9 is the pick for this week. What do you think?

[drugstuntman]

I like it too EZ...also thinking Virginia will be ready to lay 60 on Duke and should get that in early before the line jumps....you looking at that one yet ??????

[ez winners]

SD,

Rice really laid an egg this weekend, but I like their chances this weekend. I think they could win straight up.

[ez winners]

Second play....

Guys,

Here is my second play for NCAA Football this Saturday......


3 STAR: Texas (-2.5) OVER TEXAS TECH


I look for Texas to get it done here. I think the offensive and defensive match ups favor the Longhorns. We know Texas will run the ball with Cedric Benson, and they will pound away against the Red Raiders defense that ranks 63rd in the nation against the run, allowing 142 yards per game. Oklahoma is the best rushing team that Tech has played so far this season, and the Sooners ran up 221 rushing yards against the Red Raiders at 5.5 yards per carry. I see the Horns doing the same here, which will help Texas control the clock and time of possession. On the other side of the ball, we know Tech will come out throwing. Texas will be ready for the Red Raiders. The Longhorns are the #10 ranked pass defense in the country, and QB Sonny Cumbie makes too many mistakes running this Red Raider offense for my liking, having thrown 16 touchdowns, but also 12 interceptions. New Texas defensive coordinator Greg Robinson will make the difference in this game. Coming from the NFL he will have a scheme ready to confuse QB Cumbie into making enough mistakes for Texas to get the win. This is also the Horn's first game of the season playing on turf, but they have been an excellent turf team going 4-1 against the spread in their last five games played on turf and they are 41-21 against the spread when playing on turf since 1992. There are not many teams that can match the speed of Texas Tech, but the Longhorns are one of them, and they only get faster on turf. Lay the points here!

[Mission365]

John, been following your plays for quite a while and really respect your opinion and apreciate all the hard work you do. I know you had a great year in College basketball last year...I believe +100 units or so...is this a fairly normal year for college b-ball for you and if not what would you say is your average unit return for college b-ball in a season...and good luck with your new capping opportunity...well deserved. Shawn

[ez winners]

Thanks Shawn,

Last season was the first year that I rated my plays for college hoops. All prior seasons were before I went to rating my plays and I would say I hit around 55% in college hoops, so I really cant say what to expect as far as units, expecting another 100 unit season might be setting the bar too high, but we will see!

[ez winners]

Here are two more of my plays for Saturday. I have one more play for Saturday that I will be posting, but I am waiting for a better line. The line is moving in my favor but I am waiting for it to hit one of the magic numbers!



3 STAR: Maryland (+4) OVER CLEMSON

I think the wrong team is favored in this match up. Maryland comes into this game at 3-3 having lost back to back home games to Georgia Tech and NC State and in those games they only managed to score a combined 10 points. Their offense has really struggled the last two weeks, but they were playing two teams with outstanding defensive units. Georgia Tech ranks 16th in the nation in total defense and NC State has the number one ranked defense in the nation so it is easy to see why a young Terps offense has had trouble putting points on the board the last two games. They will not be facing as stiff of a defense in this game as the Tigers are only ranked 67th in the nation in total defense and the Terps have shown that they can score against a bad defense as they put 55 on the board against Duke and 45 against Temple. The Tiger defense is also tied for last in division one with only four takeaways on the season. On the other side of the ball the Maryland defense has played well and they are ranked 28th in the nation in total defense. They should be able to clamp down on a pretty pathetic Tiger offense in this game. The Clemson offense is ranked 98th in the nation in total offense and they are 97th in the nation in giveaways having turned the ball over 17 times! The Terps have had the better of this match up the last two seasons, winning both games by an average of 16 points. Clemson is only 1-5 against the spread this season, including 1-3 as a favorite. Maryland is 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games against teams with losing records and they are 2-0 against the spread on the road this season. Take the points!




2 STAR: San Jose State (+22) OVER HAWAII

I really thought the Warriors would pull off the upset last week against UTEP, but boy was I wrong. Hawaii was hammered by the Miners and now return home with a 2-3 mark for the season to play a San Jose State team that is also 2-3. Hawaii has always been a much better team at home, but laying 22 against San Jose seems to be way too much. San Jose St. has had good success when traveling to the island as they have won three out of the last five meetings with the Warriors away from the mainland and they are 4-1 against the spread in those games. Overall, in the last four wins by Hawaii over San Jose State the Warriors have only once won by more than 21 points. When you take a look at these two teams, both of them have a bad defense with Hawaii ranking 109th and San Jose State 92nd in the nation in total defense. On offense, Hawaii is much more explosive and ranks 15th in the nation in total offense compared to San Jose State that only ranks 97th in total offense, but the Spartans are more than capable of scoring against a bad defense, just ask Rice about the 70 that San Jose hung on them. The big advantage in this game for San Jose State is in the kick return game. San Jose has an excellent kick return unit that ranks 25th in the nation in kick off returns and they are 6th in the nation in punt returns. Hawaii's special teams have been horrible against returns this season as they rank 112th in kick off return defense and 97th in punt return defense. The Spartans should have some great field position to start their drives leading to some short scores. With Hawaii having already lost at home to Florida Atlantic, don't be surprised if San Jose State makes this one real interesting. Take the points!

[Southern Dandy]

EZ, what is your opinion on the Kansas St. Nebraska game this weekend? Kansas St. -5.5 looks real good to me.

[ez winners]

I would have to lean towards K State as well. Nebraska offense is in bad shape.

[ez winners]

Here is my last play for Saturday. I don't think the line will move anymore in our favor.



3 STAR: BOISE STATE (-9) OVER Fresno State

A lot of public money has been dumped on Fresno State as this line opened at 12 and is now down to 9, but I think this will be a big Boise State win. Fresno State got off to what was at the time a very impressive start with wins at Washington and Kansas State. But those wins do not look that impressive now, considering how bad those teams are this year. Fresno is coming off of back to back conference losses to UTEP and Louisiana Tech and now face conference leading Boise State. I really think this could be a Boise State blow out. The Broncos have handled the Bulldogs the last two years 31-17 and 67-21 and I think a similar result is in store for Fresno on the "Smur Turf" Saturday night. The Broncos got caught looking ahead to this match up last week and were almost upset at Tulsa. They will be focused for this game because they have been looking ahead for quite sometime which may be the reason they have dropped four in a row against the spread. This game is huge for the Broncos, so huge that they wanted the ESPN Game Day crew in Boise. Needless to say, they won't be there. With Fresno State losing two straight games it takes the luster off of what was to be the BCS Buster Bowl, but this is still Boise States time to shine, and shine they will. Fresno State had a bye week to prepare for this game, but the Bulldogs are only 2-4 against the spread after a bye week and I just don't think they are as good as they were made out to be earlier in the season. Boise State is a solid 12-2 as a favorite of 10-21 points and 15-4 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record. At home they are unreal, the Broncos are 16-1 against the spread at home when laying 20 points or less! Lay the points here!

[Homer]

John,

Just looking over your card for tomorrow. :D I like it a lot GL buddy and lets have a great $$$$$$$$$4 Weekend.