Buying anything

[bookie blaster]

never leave the hook hanging. don't pay out the nose but that half point bought that you buy and wins pays for a stack of half points down the road. imho great luck to all bb

[Holysmoke]

Re: Interesting you would bring up Sunday

Originally posted by casheasy
There was a line at another key number, and that is 10. If you bet either side in the SD/Den game, you won. Well, scratch that. I won, but most of you would push since you don't follow math.

Also, tin man, you got it all wrong. Nobody said LOSE 5 games at the extra juice. Remember, you're going to win 60% of your wagers if you go with CA$HCLUB. SO you only lost 2 of those 5, while you won on San Diego, so now I get 8 losses before I am even. Wait a minute, since I bet Oakland the week before and bought it down to 3, that gives me another 10 losses before I am even. So I am 18 games ahead of your dopey strategy.

I'm a noob to this board but not to betting sports, what do you mean you win 60% of your wagers if you go with Cashclub?

[frankb03]

Re: Buying anything

Originally posted by ************
Is for the weak at heart. If you can't bet the game(posted line) at what it is, don't bet........
Misspiggy did say one thing that did make some sense to me, 10%
10% means very much in gambling, if you are willing to lay more than 10%, you will lose your ass, it's hard enough to beat the 10%, you want to lay 20% or more???
Buying points the book has you hooked , hook, line and sinker. Look at the games, how many games have anything to do with the line?
That, at best is your win percentage buying points...

Wiz you are dead wrong.

As I stated in my thread on this issue buying certain numbers has been a profitable investment. I used to feel the same way you did until I did my analysis.

How can 3600+ games of data be wrong? If you bought every -3 favorite down to -2 1/2 you turned 58 pushes into wins. That's $5800 for a $100 player. In the past 15+ season if you played EVERY 3 point favorite and paid an additional 20 cents to buy down to -2 1/2 you'd be +$1420.

To answer your question " how many games have anything to do with the line?" Almost 11% of the games with a line of 3 end in pushes. IMO that's a staggering amount.

[casheasy]

holysmoke

It was almost in jest. I was merely pointing out that people make a huge mistake when they say, "if you lose every single game....."

Because you won't. As far as Ca$hClub, watch for this week's picks.

[wizardofoddz]

frankb

I'm not saying buying off of three would not be profitable, I'm saying buying off of 3,7,9,10,14,21 or what ever number. Do you play ever game on the schedule that is a 3?
Most pick and choose the games they play, they don't set out to play games to buy off of the number.
In the every day of gambling if you're buying off of any number, you are adding to the books percentage of juice. As I said before, it's hard enough to come out on the plus side with a 10% juice factor.

[BiloxiUMreb]

dON'T GIVE OPINIONS...LOOK AT THE FACTS

Guys, this this and a simialr thread has been ongoing for several days now, and I'm amazed that, while some of the participants are thoughtful and using some of their gray matter, there are some who insist on pontificating based on their opinions rather than historical facts. I hate to sound like a know it all, but, at the end of the day, here are the facts.

Based upon ACTUAL HISTORICAL RESULTS since 1996 the only number that should be considered is 3...NOT 6, NOT 7, and NOT 10. And here are the facts:

There have been 485 NFL games that went off at a closing number of 2.5 / 3 / or 3.5 Of these 485 games EXACTLY 48 wound up with the fav winning by EXACTLY 3!

Scenario #1)

Take the 2.5 point dog and buy up to 3 on every one.
48 of the games wind up on 3...Your "buy" has turned 48 losers into pushes...Assume you split the other 437 games. Play $100 on each game:

Without the buy:

218.5 - 266.5 - 0...Win 21,850 Lose @ 10% juice 29,315...
Net Loss of 7,465

With the buy:

218.5 - 218.5 - 48...Win 21,850 Lose @ 20% juice 26,220
Net Loss of 4,370

VALUE OF THE BUY $3,095 (7465-4370)
__________________________________________________

Scenario #2)

Take the 3.5 point fav and buy down to 3 on every one.
48 of the games wind up on 3...Your "buy" has turned 48 losers into pushes...Assume you split the other 437 games. Play $100 on each game:

Without the buy:

218.5 - 266.5 - 0...Win 21,850 Lose @ 10% juice 29,315 ...
Net Loss of 7,465

With the buy:

218.5 - 218.5 - 48...Win 21,850 Lose @ 20% juice 26,220
Net Loss of 4,370

VALUE OF THE BUY $3,095 (7465-4370)
__________________________________________________

Scenario #3)

Take the 3 point dog and buy up to 3.5 on every one.
48 of the games wind up on 3...Your "buy" has turned 48 pushes into winners...Assume you split the other 437 games. Play $100 on each game:

Without the buy:

218.5 - 218.5 -48...Win 21,850 Lose @ 10% juice 24,035 ...
Net Loss of 2,185

With the buy:

266.5 - 218.5 - 0...Win 26,650 Lose @ 20% juice 26,220
Net Win of 430

VALUE OF THE BUY $2,615 (-2185-430)
__________________________________________________

Scenario #4)

Take the 3 point fav and buy down to 2.5 on every one.
48 of the games wind up on 3...Your "buy" has turned 48 pushes into winners...Assume you split the other 437 games. Play $100 on each game:

Without the buy:

218.5 - 218.5 - 48...Win 21,850 Lose @ 10% juice 24,035 ...
Net Loss of 2,185

With the buy:

266.5 - 218.5 - 0...Win 26,650 Lose @ 20% juice 26,220
Net Win of 430

VALUE OF THE BUY $2,615 (-2185-430)
_________________________________________________


Based on the historical performance of the NFL, the resuilts above should be obvious. If they aren't though, this is the conclusion. BASED UPON THE HISTORICAL DATA OF THE NFL, buying onto and off of 3 has been a winning proposition, HOWEVER buying losers into pushes (buying ONTO 3) is MORE PROFITABLE than buying pushes into winners (buying OFF OF 3). Lastly, these conclusions are valid ONLY if your local still allows buys at 3 to be done at 20% juice. The whole proposition is UNPROFITABLE at offshore houses where the juice onto or off of 3 is 30%. I've run the same model on the other "key" numbers (6,7,10) and HISTORICALLY, buys at those numbers are inherently UNPROFITABLE. And THAT my fellow gamblholics is why the offshores now nick us for 30% onto and off of 3!!!

For all of those whose opinions are that buying is inherently a bad play, I'm open minded and am only interested in WINNING at my sports betting. If you can use facts and results to defeat my arguments, please do so...and we can all save money!![

[frankb03]

Re: frankb

Originally posted by ************
I'm not saying buying off of three would not be profitable, I'm saying buying off of 3,7,9,10,14,21 or what ever number. Do you play ever game on the schedule that is a 3?

Of course I don't play every game at 3. However, statistically buying off and on 3 is in the players favor as well as a few others lines as stated in my thread.

[frankb03]

BiloxiUMreb

I agree and disagree.

As I stated in my thread based on HISTORICAL FACT there are a handful of other 'buys' that have been a positive investment.

I've tested these buys three ways. Since 1986, 1994 when the 2 point conversion came into play and starting 1998.

With all due respect I'll 'trust' history with more data than less data. Personally, I will bet accordingly based on my analysis dating back to 1989.

FYI, my analysis includes a 20 cent premium buying on and off 3

[wizardofoddz]

another thing

The books have caught on, when buying off or on to a number it's no longer -120, I've seen it as high as - 145
In the good old days of -120 maybe there would be something there, but the books now incress the juice as well.
If You feel it's working for you, stick with it.
I just can't see how it is an advantage with juice going as high as 45%
Best Of Luck
P.S. guess I'm old school

[The Tin Man]

Nice job BiloxiUMreb on the info. I agree with facts. You can't argue. The bottom line, I guess, is do what works for you.

[spike]

Biloxi, several years back, I read a study that supported your findings exactly. 3 was the only profitible number to buy on or off. Unfortunately, others read the same and minus 20 became the standard. alot of my outs now start at 25 on the 3 and very rarely move off the 3, but will adjust money according to the side bet. At 25 the theory was not to buy. Almost a breakeven, but actually a slight loss. Don't remember the size of the sample, but a very reputable person put out the guidelines for his runners at the time.