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**shotgun** · 09-30-2004, 02:56 PM

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**who2beton** · 09-30-2004, 03:18 PM

The Sports Reporter

The Sports Reporter

NCAA

SUPER BEST BET
*GEORGIA over LSU by 21
The Dawgs have been hiding between the hedges for two
weeks, waiting for revenge
and they won't disappoint the faithful. Not only did
the Tigers beat them 17-10 in the
regular season, but LSU then destroyed the Bulldogs
(34-13 in the SEC championship.
While Georgia hasn't shown much in compiling its 3-0
SU (0-2 ATS) record, we're sure
Mark Richt hasn't delved too deeply into the offensive
or defensive playbook, and the
depth chart has sometimes been used in reverse. He's
waiting for the Tigers who had
to play last week and still have a top notch defense,
but aren't close to the offensive
team they were last year. Georgia has the additional
advantage of an experienced QB
in David Greene who suffered through those
aforementioned defeats. Georgia, 30-9.

BEST BET
*OKLAHOMA over TEXAS TECH by 38
Visiting T-Tech hasn't faced a defense coordinated by
Bo Pellini in recent years, and
when they faced Oklahoma in each of the last two
seasons, the double-digit back-door
was locked by the Sooners. Texas Tech is a phony
power, coming off four games
against feminine defenses that have routinely allowed
50 points in games last year
and/or this season already. The Red Raiders play a
fourth road game in five weeks
against a Top 5 team that is off a bye and ready to
fire its season-opening Big 12
statement. For all the 440-yard Sonny Cumbie passing
games they can string together,
it still averages out to 7.1 yards per attempt with a
questionable running game to
support it. Guess who averages 9.8 yards per attempt,
completes a higher percentage
of his throws (72% to 63%) and throws fewer
interceptions? It's Oklahoma QB Jason
White, whose RBs average 5.1 yards per pop, 2.1 yards
per carry greater than Texas
Tech. College football's see-saw symmetry plays out
for Tech: Beat TCU by 35, beat
Kansas by 1 lose to Oklahoma by 38. That would make
them about even and ready
to move on. Dead Raiders. Oklahoma, 58-20

BEST BET
WAKE FOREST over *N.C. STATE by 4
The Wolfpack defense has improved, but there is still
plenty of football to play in 2004
and this week presents two problems. Ohio State and
Virginia Tech offenses are not
tricky, relying on excellent athletes. Wake's
run-first, misdirection-based offense
requires time to prepare for and patience to play
against, neither of which emotional
head coach Chuck Amato and crew have enough of "not
even with revenge" after
being coached up to last week's "mountain top" win at
Va. Tech. Wake Forest was a
38-24 winner against the 8-point road favorite N.C.
State a year ago, so we'll make
pro-Demon Deacons play with momentum from last week's
17-14 win against Boston
College a plus. Quarterback Cory Randolph knows he
must be mentally sharp here in
picking up pass rushers after seeing V-Tech pass
protection in shoddy state last week.
Hokies slinger Bryan Randall was sacked 10 times, but
much of that came courtesy
of corner/safety blitzes. Randolph will get his passes
away, because NC State can't
commit to a pass rush against a team that runs the
ball way more than it throws.Wake
is one of the best-coached teams in the land. Jim
Grobe's crew knows this road game
"the only one in a seven-game span" is winnable as
long as Deacons defense
stuffs oft-injured running back T.A. McLendon at the
line of scrimmage, because State
signal-callers won't beat em up top. Wake Forest,
22-18.

BEST BET
PURDUE over *NOTRE DAME by 13
The Boilers opened the season with three tune-ups
(Syracuse, Ball State and Illinois)
to get ready for this big time rivalry and used that
time well. The only danger is that
those first three games were too easy, but we'll
discount that because this rivalry is
so intense. The Irish qualify as one of the surprise
teams of 2004, especially when you
remember that they started the year on a disastrous
note with a poor effort in a threepoint
loss at BYU. Since then, Notre Dame has reeled off
three straight win/******
highlighted by an upset of Michigan, but it says here
that Purdue is its toughest test.
The Boilers are in the Top 20 in rushing, stopping the
run and Kyle Orton, who compiled
a 157.9 QB rating with 366 yards and four TD passes,
is miles ahead of his counterpart.
Purdue, 34-21.

RECOMMENDED
*IOWA over MICHIGAN STATE by 16
Iowa's biggest problem against Michigan last week was
that Wolverines totally stifled
Hawkeye ground game (minus-15 yards), forcing Iowa
team with first-year
starter at QB to become totally one-dimensional.
Michigan State already has been
pushed around by the likes of Rutgers (174 yards
rushing) and MAC bottom feeder
Central Michigan (236), so Iowa should have similar
success here. Yes, Drew
Stanton was impressive at QB for Michigan State last
week, but we've learned not
to trust young quarterbacks making back-to-back starts
on the road. Plus,
Stanton's balky right knee kept him out of opener at
Rutgers, so he always is just
one play away from leaving this team in the hands of
turnover machine Stephen
Reaves or uninspiring Damon Dowdell. Hawkeyes did
limit Michigan to 93 yards
rushing. Iowa, 26-10.

RECOMMENDED
ARKANSAS over *FLORIDA by 1
The Hogs play hard on every down, they have a very
resourceful quarterback in
Matt Jones and now the ground game is cooking with
last week's 27-10 home
win/cover against Alabama featuring 211 rushing yards
rushing. We'd shout "pig
sooey" except getting this one in outright upset
fashion may be tough unless
Gators QB Chris Leak decides to self-implode in the
red zone again (three INTs
overall and two picks in the red zone in last week's
20-3 win against Kentucky).
Arkansas is spiffy 10-5 ATS as dogs since the start of
the 2001 season, have
revenge for last year's 33-28 home loss and have a
hang-in-there attitude.
Freshman RB Peyton Hillis dents the end zone here a
couple of times for the road
dog players. Arkansas, 27-26

RECOMMENDED
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN over KENT STATE by 5
Think for a moment about the opportunity that Kent
State blew against Akron last
week. Zips played at Virginia on the Saturday before,
got clobbered, and then had to
travel again off a short practice week, yet never
trailed. That demonstrates to us that
Kent State is no further along under first-year coach
Doug Martin than it was under
former mentor Dean Pees. Central Michigan had a bye to
get ready for this game, and
its previous game was against I-AA Southeast Missouri
State. So Chippewas and firstyear
coach Brian Kelly have probably been pointing to this
spot, their conference
opener, for about three weeks. Central Michigan,
27-22.

RECOMMENDED
*SYRACUSE over RUTGERS by 14
Syracuse has covered its last four in the dome against
RU, winning by an average
margin of 51-12, including a 45-14 drubbing two years
ago in the second year of
Rutgers coach Greg Schiano's tenure. Maybe, like some
teams, the Scarlet Knights
can't adjust to playing in a domed setting, especially
when they only do it once every
two years. Plus, while we believe Schiano to be a
tremendous recruiter, his Xs and Os
are still a question mark, meaning he may not be able
to take advantage of the bye
week. The Orange at least got out of Virginia with
their dignity intact, and their defense
was impressive in its one home game this year, forcing
six turnovers in a win against
Cincinnati. Syracuse has revenge for a road loss in
which Rutgers three TD drives
covered an average of 26 yards. Cuse should have the
turnover mojo working this
time. Syracuse, 30-16.

RECOMMENDED
*OREGON over ARIZONA STATE by 11
Arizona State beat Oregon like a drum last year,
59-14, and now the Sun Devils (4-0
both SU and ATS) are on fire, so how can we go against
them? Check out their opponents
so far: UTEP, Northwestern, Oregon State and Iowa are
a combined 5-10 SU and
Iowa is the only one of those teams withy a reasonable
chance to finish the year over
.500. The Ducks showed us some grit by not folding
their feathers after going down
0-24 at home vs. Indiana (lost, 30-24) and by never
backing down in a loss/cover at
Oklahoma. Oregon head coach Mike Bellotti is on record
as saying that his non-conference
games were exhibitions. This is a Pac 10 game, and
conference play is frequently
a door-slammer for early streaking teams like ASU.
Oregon, 31-20.

RECOMMENDED
COLORADO over *MISSOURI by 3
Buffs have won/covered each of the last four duels
against Big 12 rival Missouri
including a 21-16 home upset last year that followed
on the heels of a 62-point showing
for the Tigers against Texas Tech (yes, Mizzou won
that game) and Missouri QB
Brad Smith has never beaten CU. lorado finds ways to
win even when it gets terribly
out-yarded (see win against Washington State) and even
when it falls asleep at the
wheel (see hang-on-for-dear-life win against Colorado
State). Smith gets a little jumpy
here against a Buffs defense that really tightens the
screws in the red zone and Gary
Barnett's guys put more and more distance between them
and last off-season's party
problems. Colorado, 23-20.

RECOMMENDED
*TROY STATE over UTAH STATE by 21
Troy's assembly of now fifth-year seniors was playing
a fourth consecutive road game
near the end of a long, injury-filled season last year
when they nevertheless went into
Utah State and used an overdose of RB DeWhitt
Betterson to batter the Aggies for 46
carries and 237 yards. This particular opponent gives
the Trojans an opportunity to do
what they do best have a Pick Party! Utah State is a
throw-first team with a 2.0
yards per carry running game. The playmakers on Troy's
defense can just wait for the
ball to come to them, batter the Aggies with
Betterson, set em up for the occasional
deep ball from QB Aaron Leak, and not worry about
being battered themselves like
they were in their first Sun Belt game by a New Mexico
State side that knows a lot
more about running the football than Utah State does.
Troy State, 28-7.

NFL

BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND over *BUFFALO by 17
Though the Bills defense is solid, Tom Brady dissected
it in the last meeting for
four touchdowns in a 31-0 drubbing. Since then, the
Pats have improved with the
addition of Corey Dillon, while the Bills new
offensive additions RB Willis
McGahee and WR Lee Evans, have been silent. Buffalo
will have to stop the Patriots
top-ranked passing game in order to have a chance in
this one not a likely scenario.
Brady is very accurate and spreads the ball around as
well as any QB, and
has several good options at receiver. Bills safety
Lawyer Milloy, last season's Week
1 mole for Buffalo's 31-0 shocking win, has been out
since pre-season with a
broken arm and will likely miss the game. Even if he
does return, Milloy will be
without tipster info, and probably rusty. Meanwhile,
the Buffalo offense has
shown no signs of improving upon last year's low
production, with 20 points
through the first two games and actually has failed to
gain more yards than the
defense has given up. Travis Henry is averaging a
measly 3.2 yards per carry this
far. Against the Raiders in Week 2, Bledsoe was sacked
7 times and constantly
harassed by frequent blitzing. His lack of mobility
has been exploited by Bill
Belichick in the past, and now Belichick has had two
weeks to prepare a plan to
that will make him even happier that he picked Brady
over Bledsoe a couple of
years ago. NEW ENGLAND 30-13.

BEST BET
*SAN DIEGO over TENNESSEE by 7
It could all be unraveling for the Titans, who,
besides the very visible DL losses of Robaire Smith
and Jevon Kearse in the off-season, also lost their
leading tackler, LB Peter Sirmon, in the preseason,
and OT Zach Piller two weeks ago. Sirmon and Piller
had each received long-term contracts
after last season, from a team that signed only one
free-agent between then and now.
This obviously means that the Titans are getting zero
from a pair of serious 2004 investments.
What happens when your investments don't pan out? You
lose money. You've got to be really,
really good to overcome obstacles such as these, and
the feeling here is that Tennessee WAS
really good for a few years and is headed down because
Steve McNair cannot continue to carry
them. On his home field, with his defense beginning to
come around, LaDainian Tomlinson of
the Chargers should control the game. Chris Brown, the
new kid the Titans are counting on for
ground yardage, will not be running for 150 yards
every week and against a 3-4 defense seeking
turnovers that has good linebackers, he may not be the
guy you think he'll be in this
matchup. SAN DIEGO, 24-17.

RECOMMENDED
*JACKSONVILLE over INDIANAPOLIS by 4
You lay points with that shaky Indianapolis defense
and you set yourself up to be
frustrated. As underdogs, Indy is now 8-1-1 ATS since
the beginning of last season.
But the Colts were just 4-5 ATS as favorites in 2003,
with two of the four ******
in the chalk role were by a mere 0.5 points and 2.5
points. Last week, they
were covering by only a point until they finally made
a play on the opponents oneyard-
line with less than two minutes remaining. When the
home team can run Fred
Taylor at the soft underbelly of the Indianapolis
defense, it can keep Peyton
Manning and Edgerrin James off the field, lessening
the chances of falling behind
and having to lean on the second-year arm and head of
QB Byron Leftwich. That
plan worked in a 28-23 Jacksonville win on this field
last season, but it worked in
reverse. Taylor gained 152 yards on 26 carries,
including a 32-yard, game-winning
TD run with 1:08 remaining in the fourth quarter. But
the Jags had trailed that
game 20-7 at halftime, when Taylor had only 50 yards.
Jacksonville might be able
to play that second half in the first half now,
especially if they win the toss and get
the opening drive, a scenario that was worth a quick
7-0 lead for the Colts offense
last year. JACKSONVILLE, 27-23

RECOMMENDED
NEW YORK JETS over *MIAMI by 12
Huge rivalry here, with the Jets having double revenge
coming off a bye week that
allowed them extra time to rest, prepare, contemplate
what went wrong last year
and motivate themselves to get payback. Part of what
went wrong has already
been righted, with the Golden Chad not Vinny the
Statue playing QB and
Curtis Martin, secretly gimpy for the first meeting in
2003, currently going strong.
New York's improved offensive line will pound away and
establish the trenches
early, keeping Miami's defense on the field for
extended periods and eventually
wearing them down. With Pennington the NFL's most
accurate passer, the
Dolphins defense will be moving backwards even more.
Pennington has yet to be
picked, and Martin has glue fingers. Without being
able to take advantage of careless
turnovers, Miami will be forced to put together at
least a couple of long TD
drives in order to stay in contention, but they have
yet to show that kind of offensive
ability. Lamar Gordon gained just 54 yards through the
first two games, and
as we were putting this issue to bed the Dolphins
backfield had 34 yards on 12
carries vs. the Steelers. In the absence of a decent
run game, Miami will face a
good number of third-and-long situations in which
either A.J. Feeley or Jay Fiedler
would need to step up and make plays enough said.
JETS, 26-14.

**who2beton** · 09-30-2004, 03:19 PM

Marc Lawrence Playbook

5 BEST BET
OKLAHOMA ST over Iowa St by 27
Iowa State has played surprisingly well so far this
season but
we see that success coming to a grinding halt here
today. The
Big Breeze is 1-8 ATS in its conference opener and
hasn't
covered a Big 12 game since October of 2002 (11
consecutive
losses). Okie State is a running machine (ave 334
yards rushing
this year) that is 8-2 ATS as DD chalk and 8-3 ATS at
home off
BB SU wins. Clincher is the fact that ISU is a paltry
1-13 ATS
when allowing 150 on the ground. Les Miles avenges an
earlier
loss to ISU in a big way today.

4 BEST BET
OREGON over Arizona St by 13
Arizona State checks into Eugene off impressive back
to back
revenge wins over Oregon State and Iowa the past two
weeks.
Unfortunately for Sun Devil backers, the Desert Demons
are
also 0-6 ATS as an underdog against a foe off a SU win
while
Oregon is 8-1 ATS with revenge at home off a home game
and 17-3 ATS in its last 20 Pac Ten openers. The SU
winner in
the last 22 Oregon games has 19 ******. We feel the
Beavers
will come to play here today, especially with ASU
eyeing up
USC next week. Double revenge for the Ducks cements
it.

3 BEST BET
MISSOURI over Colorado by 16
Colorado has pretty much owned the Tigers of late in
this
series. We feel, however, the tide is about to turn -
beginning
here today. The Buffaloes are a stinky 3-18 ATS in
their last
21 SU losses. Brad Smith had led Missouri to eight
straight
wins in Columbia and may, indeed, be the best QB in
the Big
12. Missouri is 8-2 ATS in its last ten conference
home games
and 24-10 ATS at home in its last 34 chances against
an
opponent off a SU win. Our Awesome Angle of the Week
(see page 2) lends even more support.

NFL

5 BEST BET
St Louis over SAN FRANCISCO by 14
San Francisco has had their share of success in the
past in
this series. That was when they fielded a respectable
team
however. What really catches our interest here is the
fact
that winless home teams in Game 4 are 5-15 ATS when
playing a < .500 foe, including 1-12 ATS when going
into
revenge. That and division home dogs off a shutout
loss
are now 6-13 ATS since 1990. Oh yeah, toss in the fact
the
Rams are 33-3 ATS when they win SU on the division
road
(13-0 ATS when off a loss) and we have the makings of
a
one-way street here. Rams get real tuff.

4 BEST BET
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis by 10
Indy enters off their shootout win over the Packers
knowing
they are 1-7 ATS in October conference games and just
1-5
ATS off a non-conference game. Defensively staunch
Jacksonville is 12-2-2 ATS at home off a division road
game.
The Jags need to know that Game 4 home teams who have
opened the season 3-0 SUATS are 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS.
Those
are rather impressive numbers, to say the least. On
the flip
side the Colts are 0-5 ATS when taking on a foe that
is off
BB SUATS wins and 1-8 ATS in October when coming in
off BB
spread wins. Jags continue on the prowl.

3 BEST BET
BUFFALO over New England by 6
The last time the Patriots travelled to Bisonville,
they were
dispatched in shame 31-0 by the Bills. New England
returned
the favor (by the exact score) later in the season.
Stats certainly
help as New England is a putrid 1-17-2 ATS in their
2nd road
game of the season the last 20 years while the last
six
defending Super Bowl champions are now 0-6 ATS in the
regular season when playing off a Bye Week. Bills
defense
gets this done.

**who2beton** · 09-30-2004, 04:36 PM

Dr. Bob

College Best Bet Sides

3 Star Selection
Navy (+1) 35 AIR FORCE 24
30-Sep-04 04:45 PM Pacific Time
Navy had a tough time with a solid Vanderbilt squad last week, but they averaged 5.7 yards per play in that game while allowing the Commodores only 4.8 yppl, so they should have won by a bit more than 3 points. Regardless, the Midshipmen are still undefeated at 4-0 and looking to win their second straight Commander in Chief Trophy after sweeping Air Force and Army last season. Air Force certainly wants this game badly too, but the Falcons just don't have the personnel on defense to get the job done against an experienced Navy offense that's averaging 5.9 yards per play this season and rates as 0.4 yppl better than an average Division 1A team. Air Force has not been able to defend the run all season, as they've allowed 5.8 yards per rushing play in their 4 games while giving up 8.9 yprp to Cal and 5.4 yprp to Utah last week. Overall, the Falcons defense has surrendered 6.8 yppl this season and rates as 0.8 yppl worse than average. Air Force has a pretty good offense (5.4 yppl and rates as 0.2 yppl better than average after compensating for opposing defenses), but the Middies have a solid, experienced defense that has given up just 4.5 yppl this season. Navy has faced most bad offensive teams, but they held a better than average Vanderbilt offense in check last week and the Midshipmen grade out at 0.3 yppl better than average defensively, which is slightly better than the Air Force offense. The Falcons simply won't be able to keep up with Navy on the scoreboard even though they are at home and do have better special teams. Overall, my ratings favor Navy by 6 points in this game, but the Middies qualify in a solid 198-103-10 ATS statistical match-up indicator and they are an incredible 61-27-1 ATS in regular season games away from home including 34-8-1 ATS when visiting a team coming off a loss.

Downgrade Navy to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of more than 1 point.

2 Star Selection
NEW MEXICO (+10.0) 23 Utah 26
01-Oct-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
New Mexico may be only 2-2, but they are a better team than their record indicates and should not be a double-digit underdog at home in this game. One of the Lobos two losses this season were a 17-21 fluke against Washington State (whom the Lobos out-gained 5.6 yards per play to 3.9 yppl) and their only deserved loss was a respectable 7-17 spread covering setback as a 13 point dog at Oregon State. Aside from facing those two tough Pac-10 teams, the Lobos also beat Texas Tech and held the explosive Red Raiders offense to just 24 points and 5.4 yppl. The New Mexico defense has been great all season, limiting their opponents to just 4.3 yppl despite facing a better than average slate of offensive teams. I rate the Lobos stop unit as 1.5 yppl better than average and they will be a good test for a Utah offense that has averaged a very impressive 6.9 yppl and rates as 1.6 yppl better than average with QB Alex Smith in the game so the slight edge goes to Utah's offense. The New Mexico offense hasn't been that impressive on the stats sheet so far, averaging just 4.6 yppl, but they have faced two good defensive teams (Washington State and Texas Tech), one great defensive team (Oregon State) and only one poor defensive team (New Mexico State). An average offense would a produce 4.8 yppl against that same schedule of teams, so New Mexico rates as 0.2 yppl worse than average (only 0.1 yppl below average with quarterback McKarney in the game). Utah's defense is just mediocre, allowing 5.3 yppl to a schedule of teams that rates as a collective 5.3 yppl on offense. As you can see, these teams are very evenly matched from the line of scrimmage, but the Utes enjoys significant edges in special teams (3.9 points) and in projected turnovers (since Utah QB Smith has only thrown 3 picks in 352 career passes) and my math model favors the Utes by 5 ½ points in this game. The projected margin would be 6 ½ points if New Mexico RB Dontrell Moore doesn't play even though backup Cox has averaged 4.8 ypr since last season and is a solid replacement (but not as good as Moore - 5.4 ypr since last year). In addition to a bit of line value, the Lobos qualify in a very good 51-15-3 ATS home momentum situation and coach Long has guided his team to upsets against Utah in each of the past 2 seasons, so they won't be intimidated by the Utes impressive ranking. In fact, hosting a ranked team on national TV will have the Lobos and their fans fired up for this game and I expect a very competitive contest with a possible upset. This is also the stage in the season when unbeaten teams tend to fall, as opposing teams give their best effort. The unbeaten squad is particularly vulnerable against decent teams (.500 or better win percentage) that won the previous week. In fact, teams that are 4-0 straight up are just 24-49-2 ATS against a home team with a win percentage of .500 that won the previous week. New Mexico has a profitable 57.9% chance of covering at the current line of +10 points and I'll take the Lobos at that number in a 2-Star Best Bet.

Downgrade New Mexico to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog of less than 10 points.

2 Star Selection
Houston (+13.5) 27 MEMPHIS 30
02-Oct-04 11:00 AM Pacific Time
There is a big difference between reality and perception when it comes to the Memphis Tigers, who entered the season with a potentially explosive offense and a defense with plenty of questions after losing 6 of their top 7 defenders from last year's good unit. Memphis managed to squeak past what we now know is a bad Mississippi team 20-13 on opening day and then beat a horrible Chattanooga squad 52-21 to keep the positive buzz going. The Tigers defense showed some holes in that game, however, as they allowed 21 points to a team they should have held to about 10 to 13 points. Those defensive holes were exposed the next week against lowly Arkansas State, who racked up 35 points on 507 total yards at 7.0 yards per play. Memphis managed to come from behind against a horrid Indians defense and win that game 47-35 as a 24 point favorite and they broke into the top 25 despite that horrible defensive effort. The Tigers were in a very good situation last week, but my ratings favored UAB to win straight up and those ratings proved to be correct in a 35-28 Blazers victory that was much more dominant than the score indicates UAB gained 539 yards at 8.6 yppl while Memphis tallied 463 yards at 5.9 yppl. Memphis is simply not as good as they are perceived to be, as they have played a very weak schedule of teams and have out-gained those opponents by just 6.0 yppl to 5.9 yppl (after compensation, I rate the Memphis offense as 0.1 yppl worse than average and the defense at 0.8 yppl worse than average). Houston, meanwhile, is much better than they are perceived, as an opening 7-10 loss to Rice doesn't look so bad now that the Owls have proven themselves to be a pretty good team (2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS). A 13-63 loss to Oklahoma followed that setback to Rice and Houston was suddenly pegged as a horrible team (even though the yardage stats would project only a 26 point loss on average and Houston was a 37 point dog). Houston followed that deceiving loss with their first win of the season, although they failed to cover as a 15 ½ point favorite in a 35-21 win over Army further enhancing their reputation as an underachieving team. However, the Cougars out-gained the Cadets by a whopping 309 total yards while averaging 9.1 yppl on offense and clearly dominated that game more than the score shows. The line value from 3 supposed disappointing performances showed up last week as Houston was installed as a 29 ½ point home underdog to Miami and covered easily while being out-gained only 4.0 yppl to 4.4 yppl by the mighty Hurricanes. Houston's offense has certainly proven themselves against tough competition by averaging 4.3 yppl against Oklahoma and Miami defensive units that rank among the very best in the nation (an average offense would gain 3.7 yppl against those two teams). For the season, Houston has averaged 5.4 yppl on offense despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow only 4.9 yppl to an average offense (so, the Cougars have been 0.5 yppl better than average on offense, but not quite as good without injured RB Evans). Houston's experienced defense (9 returning starters) has yielded 5.6 yppl to a slate of offensive units that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense, so the Cougars have also been a bit better than average defensively. Houston somehow got the reputation as a bad team, but they were a Bowl team last season and returned 15 starters, so how bad can they really be? The answer is not bad at all and actually better than average. Memphis, meanwhile, is a worse than average team statistically because their defense hasn't been able to replace the impact players that filled their defensive roster last season. A more simplistic way to take a look at the stats is by noticing that Houston has been out-gained by an average of just 0.2 yppl against a good schedule of teams while Memphis has only out-gained their weak schedule by 0.1 yppl. Those stats are pretty even considering that Houston has faced a schedule that is about 10 points tougher than the teams that Memphis has faced this year. Houston is the better team and I'll gladly take advantage of the false perception of these to teams, which deviates drastically from reality. Yardage stats are much more indicative of future performance than points scored and allowed, and it is the disparity between the scores and that yardage numbers by these to teams that gives us such great value in this game.

Upgrade Houston to a 3-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 14 points or more.

2 Star Selection
MISSOURI (-7.0) 35 Colorado 21
02-Oct-04 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Colorado is a phony 3-0, as they were out-played in their two wins against decent teams Colorado State and Washington State. The Buffs averaged just 5.5 yards per play against a horrible CSU defense while allowing the Rams to rack up 6.5 yppl on offense in a 27-24 win. Colorado's 20-12 win against Washington State was even more of a fluke, as the Buffaloes were held to 125 total yards at 2.1 yppl while giving up 402 yards at 4.4 yppl to the Cougars. Beating up on North Texas is really not that impressive considering that their numbers in that game were worse than what other teams have done to the Eagles this year. Colorado average an impressive 8.1 yppl against a North Texas defense that's allowed 7.1 yppl for the season, but the Buffs also allowed 6.7 yppl to an Eagles offense that's averaged just 4.8 yppl for the season. Overall, Colorado has averaged 5.4 yppl (to teams that combine to allow an average of 6.0 yppl) and they've given up 5.7 yppl to teams that combine to average just 5.2 yppl on offense. As you can see, Colorado has actually been worse than average on both sides of the ball this season after compensating for the level of their opposition. Missouri, meanwhile, has averaged a healthy 6.2 yppl on offense (against teams that allow a combined average of 5.6 yppl on defense) and the Tigers have yielded 4.6 yppl to teams that average a combined 5.0 yppl on offense. My math model favors Missouri by 14 points in this game and they have a very profitable 58.8% chance of covering at the current line of -7 points, which is good enough to make them a 2-Star Best Bet at that number.

Downgrade Missouri to a Strong Opinion if they become a favorite of more than 7 points.

3 Star Selection
Miami Fla (-14.0) 31 GEORGIA TECH 7
02-Oct-04 12:30 PM Pacific Time
There's been a lot of talk recently about how mediocre the Miami-Florida offense has been, and while it's true that the Hurricanes haven't played to their potential on defense, it's also true that their defense has been as dominating as ever this season. The ferocious Hurricanes defense that has yielded only 3.3 yppl to 3 pretty good offensive teams (Florida State, Louisiana Tech, and Houston) and I rate that unit as an incredible 2.0 yppl better than average. Georgia Tech was below average offensively last season and they haven't improved much this season, as I rate them 0.2 yppl worse than average on that side of the ball after producing just 5.5 yppl against 3 teams that an average Division 1A offense would gain 5.7 yppl against. I just don't see how the Yellow Jackets will move the ball in this game, without injured star back P.J. Daniels, and it will be tough for Georgia Tech to score more than Miami's per game average of 7.7 points allowed. The question is with a Miami offense that has averaged just 5.7 yards per play in their 3 victories, and which I rate that unit at 0.4 yppl better than average (not good for Miami). Georgia Tech's defense allowed 6.4 yppl to Clemson's troubled attack and 6.1 yppl in a loss to a North Carolina team that was just shutout by Louisville last week. The Yellow Jackets have certainly missed 1st Team All-ACC DL Eric Henderson (24 tackles for loss last year), who was suspended for the first 3 games, but Georgia Tech's defensive problems (0.5 yppl worse than an average team) won't be completely solved by the addition of one player. The difference between Georgia Tech's good defense last season (0.9 yppl better than average) and their unit this season is more than just Henderson, as high round NFL draft picks LB Keyaron Fox and LB Daryl Smith have also been missed. Fox and Smith were the Yellow Jackets top two tacklers and two of the 4 impact players on last year's defense. My best guess is that the difference of 1.4 yppl between last year's Yellow Jackets defense and this year's unit is equally divided by the loss of those 3 impact players in the first 3 games (so Fox, Smith, and Henderson are all worth about 0.5 yppl). If I make Henderson a bit more valuable than the other two then Georgia Tech's defense could improve by 0.6 yppl with Henderson back in the lineup this week. With the 0.6 yppl adjustment to Georgia Tech's defense and the 0.15 yppl negative adjustment for Daniels absence, my ratings would favor Miami-Florida by 19 points in this game after adding in special teams (3.7 points in Miami's favor), projected turnovers (3.0 points in Georgia Tech's favor) and the home field advantage. The math would still favor Miami by 12 ½ points in the worst case scenario that Georgia Tech's defense magically returns to last season's high level with Henderson's return (unlikely). I'd still be willing to take Miami even if Georgia Tech's defense suddenly returns of last year's form since Miami applies to a very strong 83-26-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 43-12-1 ATS conference road favorite situation.

Downgrade Miami-Florida to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 14 points
Downgrade Miami-Florida to a Strong Opinion if they are favored by more than 17 points.

3 Star Selection
TROY STATE (-14.0) 33 Utah St. 10
02-Oct-04 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Don't be fooled by Utah State's 31-21 win as a 13 point dog at UNLV last week. The Aggies were out-gained 300 yards at 5.3 yards per play to 550 yards for UNLV at 6.9 yppl but took advantage of a +4 in turnover margin to win that game. I don't expect Utah State to win the turnover battle in this game and I do expect them to be dominated again at the line of scrimmage. Troy State has one of the best defensive units in the nation this year, as they've held their 4 opponents to just 4.2 yppl while allowing just 4.4 yppl to good offensive teams Missouri and South Carolina. I rate the Trojans stop unit as 1.1 yppl better than average and they will have no trouble limiting a sub-par Utah State offense that has averaged only 4.7 yppl this season against teams that combine to allow an average of 5.5 yppl on defense. My math model projects just 3.4 yppl for Utah State in this game and only 10 points. The problem with taking Troy State as a big favorite is their sub-standard offense (4.7 yppl this season and I rate them at 0.5 yppl worse than average), but Utah State has a horrible defense that has surrendered 6.1 yppl this season and just allowed a below average UNLV offense to rack up 6.9 yppl. I rate the Aggies defense at 0.8 yppl worse than average, so Troy's offense actually has a 0.3 yppl advantage in this game. I also like the match-up of Troy's better than average rush attack (4.3 yards per rushing play against a schedule of teams that combine to allow just 4.1 yprp on defense) against a soft Utah State defensive front that has surrendered 5.8 yprp this season (to teams that average a combined 5.1 yprp on offense). Troy State averaged 6.0 yppl against the only worse than average defense they faced this season (New Mexico State) and my math model calls for them to average 5.7 yppl in this game (adjusted for them being at home). Overall, my math model favors Troy by 23 points in this game and the Trojans also qualify in a very good 188-94-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that plays on teams that are likely to control the line of scrimmage.

Downgrade Troy State to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 14 points
Downgrade Troy to a Strong Opinion if they become a favorite of more than 16 points.

2 Star Selection
NORTHERN ILL (-16.0) 43 Akron 17
02-Oct-04 01:05 PM Pacific Time
Akron finally got a victory last week in a 24-19 upset at Kent last Thursday night, but that win sets up the Zips in a negative 27-65-2 ATS letdown situation and a 4-22 ATS subset of that angle applies. Akron quarterback Charlie Frye's numbers are way down this year (just 5.5 yards per pass play), as his inexperienced group of receivers can't seem to get open downfield (just 10.0 yards per reception). Frye now has a broken finger on his throwing hand that will likely affect his throwing a bit, but the Zips would be unlikely to stay close in this game even if Frye were completely healthy. The Huskies have played all but 3 snaps this season with their backup quarterback and their offense has still averaged a solid 5.5 yards per play despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average offensive team. It's possible that veteran starter Josh Haldi will return for this game, but backup Phil Horvath has done a good job in his place and the rushing attack has two good backs to pound away at a soft Akron defensive front that has allowed a horrendous 6.5 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that average 5.3 yprp on offense). The Zips aren't bad against the pass, but their defense overall rates at 0.9 yppl worse than average giving up 6.4 yppl in 4 games against a schedule of teams that is only slightly better than average offensively as a group. Akron's offense has struggled with a less explosive pass attack and that unit has averaged just 4.5 yppl this season and rates as 0.4 yppl worse than average even if I take out their pathetic performance against Virginia (84 yards on 58 plays). Northern Illinois is 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively, but that should be good enough to keep Akron's offense in check while the Huskies attack is rolling up points with long, run-oriented drives. My math model predicts a 42-19 final score in this game and the situation going against Akron is worth a few points, so I'll take Northern Illinois (19-10 ATS as a favorite under coach Novak) to win this game easily.

Downgrade Northern Illinois to a Strong Opinion if they are favored by more than 19 points.
Upgrade Northern Illinois to a 3-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 14 points or less.

College Strong Opinions

ARMY (+19.0) 28 TCU 41
02-Oct-04 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Army's defense is horrible, allowing 42.3 points per game at 7.3 yards per play to Louisville, Houston, and Connecticut, but the Cadets have enough offense to keep this one relatively close against a TCU team with a sub-par defense. Army has averaged a better than normal 5.5 yppl on offense against a schedule of solid defensive teams and I rate their attack at 0.4 yppl better than average. Army running backs Jones and Robinson have combined for 448 rushing yards at an incredible 7.0 ypr and they should have decent success against a good TCU run defense that's allowed just 3.0 yards per rushing play to a schedule of teams that combines to average 4.2 yprp on offense. While Army's great rush attack figures to be slowed considerably by TCU's strong run defense, the Cadets quarterbacks (averaging just 4.7 yards per pass play against teams that allow a combined 5.4 yppp on defense) have a chance to post good numbers against a horrible Horned Frogs secondary that has surrendered 7.3 yppp in 4 games this season to teams that combine to average just 5.9 yppp on offense. My math model predicts 6.0 yppl for Army in this game and that type of offense should be able to score enough points to keep this game pretty close. TCU starting quarterback Tye Gunn probably won't play with his badly sprained ankle, but backup Brandon Hassell was an effective starter much of last season and should be just as good leading a better than average TCU attack that's averaged 5.8 yppl against a schedule of teams that's allowed an average of 5.6 yppl this season. My math model predicts the Frogs to score 41 points, but it also predicts Army to tally 28 points and gives them a solid 57% chance of covering based on that line value. I realize that the Cadets are 0-8 ATS at home, but all but one of those games was under the former coach and TCU is just 1-9 ATS when favored by more than 13 points under coach Gary Patterson. Bobby Ross has Army headed in the right direction even if it's not showing up on the scoreboard yet and I'll take the big home dog in a Strong Opinion.

TOLEDO (-15.0) 41 Ball St. 20
02-Oct-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Ball State broke in a new quarterback last week and true frosh Cole Stinson posted impressive numbers (8.9 yards per pass play) in the Cardinals upset of Western Michigan. It certainly helped that Western Michigan has one of the nations worst pass defenses (allowing 9.1 yppp in 3 Division 1A games), but Stinson looks like a vast improvement over former starter Lynch. However, teams that win as a home underdog one week tend to struggle as a road underdog the next week and Ball State qualifies in a negative 18-56-2 ATS situation that is based on that premise. True freshman quarterbacks making their first road start are probably not so good too and visiting Toledo in the Rubber Bowl has been problems for all teams lately, as the Rockets have covered 11 of their last 12 games here (17-5 ATS at home going back further). Toledo's pass defense should allow Stinson to have pretty good success in this game (I project 7.9 yppp), but Rockets veteran quarterback Bruce Gradkowski should pick apart a Ball State secondary that has allowed 7.3 yppp this season (to teams that average a combined 6.7 yppp on offense). Gradkowski is one of the nation's most accurate passers he completed an incredible 71% of his passes last season and is at 70% this season while averaging a very impressive 8.6 yppp (against teams that combine to allow 6.8 yppp on defense) so he should have no problems hitting open receivers today. Overall, I rate Toledo's offense at 0.6 yppl better than average while Ball State's defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average. The Rockets do have defensive issues (0.9 yppl worse than average), but Ball State is still 0.6 yppl worse than average even if new QB Stinson plays at the level he played last week (instead of -1.6 yppl if included the passing stats of former starter Lynch). Overall, my ratings favor Toledo by 14 points in this game, but their strong home field and the situation going against Ball State (which has a solid 56.5% chance of working given a fair line) are enough to make Toledo a Strong Opinion in this game at -16 points or less.

UCLA (-6.0) 34 San Diego St. 23
02-Oct-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
The Bruins offense struggled last year as they tried to learn coach Karl Dorrell's complicated scheme with on-the-job training. Well, things have certainly clicked for quarterback Drew Olson and the rest of an experienced UCLA attack unit that now feels comfortable running Dorrell's offense. UCLA has averaged an incredible 7.1 yards per play in their 3 games (against teams that allow a combined 5.7 yppl on defense) and I rate that unit as 1.3 yppl better than average. San Diego State has a reputation as having a good defense, but they haven't been tested yet, as giving up 4.6 yppl against a weak schedule of offensive teams and they rate as 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (Aztecs opponents Idaho State, Michigan, and Nevada are all sub-par offensively and an average defense would hold those teams to 5.0 yppl). UCLA has a decided advantage when they have the ball and the Bruins two great backs Drew (508 yards at 8.6 ypr) and White (326 yards at 5.3 ypr) should run well against an Aztecs defensive front that allowed 4.4 yards per rushing play to Michigan and Nevada teams that combine to average only 3.9 yprp on offense. San Diego State's offense has performed below average this season, gaining just 5.5 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that an average team would gain 5.9 yppl against). The Aztecs did most of their damage against a horrible Idaho State defense and since then they've gained just 5.0 yppl against Michigan and Nevada. Michigan has a good defense, but there is not excuse for gaining just 5.2 yppl against a horrible Nevada defense that I rate at 1.1 yppl worse than average. UCLA's defense has had trouble defending the run due to attrition along the defensive line and linebacking corps. San Diego State has averaged just 3.7 yprp in two Division 1A games (against teams that combine to allow an average of 4.6 yprp on defense), so they may not be able to exploit UCLA's defensive weakness. Overall, the Bruins rate at 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively so the Aztec offense has a slight edge in that match-up. UCLA's offense will be hurt by the loss of big-play receiver Craig Bragg (12 catches at 18.1 ypc) and I'll drop their offensive rating 0.3 yppl because of his injury. That still makes UCLA's offense 1.0 yppl better than average, which is better than San Diego State's defense (0.4 yppl above average). UCLA is also at home, is likely to win the turnover battle (by a projected 0.47) and is a bit better on special teams. The sum of all of those parts makes the Bruins an 11 ½ point choice mathematically and they have a profitable 55.9% chance of covering at the current line of -6 points - which is good enough to make UCLA a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

TEXAS EL PASO (-7.0) 31 New Mexico St. 19
02-Oct-04 06:05 PM Pacific Time
Texas El Paso is a very underrated team with a solid defense and they hung tough for me a couple of weeks ago in a Best Bet winner as a huge dog to Boise State (UTEP led late in the third quarter of that game). The Miners are still struggling to find themselves offensively, as they've averaged just 4.9 yppl against a schedule of teams that I rate as 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively. UTEP rates as 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively, but they should move the ball at a decent level in this game against a New Mexico State defense that I also rate at 0.8 yppl worse than average. The Aggies have given up a horrendous 6.8 yppl this season, but they've also faced two very good offensive teams in Arkansas and Cal which boosted those numbers (they've allowed a more respectable 5.7 yppl the last two weeks against Troy State and New Mexico). The other side of the ball is where the Miners have their advantage, as their defense rates as 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing just 5.2 yppl in their 3 games with two of those games coming against offensive juggernauts Arizona State and Boise State. UTEP actually has been 0.6 yppl better than average defensively if their shutout against Weber State is included, but I decided to only use their games against Division 1A opposition since New Mexico State has faced such a tough schedule. New Mexico State's offense has faced a schedule of teams with an average defensive rating of 1.0 yppl better than average, which is a big reason why the Aggies have averaged just 3.9 yppl. New Mexico State is actually just 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively after compensating for their tough schedule. But, that gives UTEP a 0.8 yppl advantage when the Aggies have the ball and my overall ratings favor the Miners by 12 points when projected turnovers (about even) and special teams (UTEP is 2.8 points better) are factored in. UTEP's defense dominated the only worse than average offense that they faced (allowed just 112 yards at 2.2 yppl against Weber State) and they could be even better than I've given them credit for (since I discarded that effort in my ratings the math would have been UTEP by 15 ½ points if I kept it in there). I'll make UTEP a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

Tulsa (+11) 26 HAWAII 31
02-Oct-04 09:05 PM Pacific Time
Hawaii has started the season 0-2 with upset losses to Florida Atlantic at home and to Rice on the road. Hawaii will give it another try this week and they could easily lose again if they play at the level they've played at so far. The Warriors have averaged just 5.0 yards per play while allowing 6.0 yppl in their two games against teams that that I rate as 0.65 yppl worse than average combined. The defense has been particularly bad, as Florida Atlantic and Rice are both below average offensive teams that an average defense would hold to 4.7 yppl. Hawaii wasn't expected to be good defensively with just 3 returning starters, but I didn't expect that unit to be as bad as it's been. The Warriors offense has mysteriously stopped working despite returning 10 of 11 starters from a unit that averaged 6.3 yppl last season (against teams that allowed 5.7 yppl on defense). I'll assume that the offense will revert back to the form expected of them, but they'll have to navigate through a very good Tulsa defense that has allowed just 4.6 yppl this season and which I rate as 0.5 yppl better than average. The Hurricanes allowed only 5.5 yppl to good offensive teams Oklahoma State and Navy (who combine to average 6.1 yppl on offense this season), so they have proven themselves against good offensive teams and should do a decent job of containing Hawaii's offense even if the Warriors do return to last year's form (they held Hawaii to just 16 points last year). Hawaii's defense is just as bad as Tulsa's offense, which has averaged just 4.5 yppl against a group of teams that collectively are a bit worse than average defensively, so the Hurricanes should have decent success offensively this week. What amazes me about the line in this game is that Hawaii lost 16-27 to Tulsa last year and my math model would favor the Rainbow Warriors by just 5 ½ points at home against Tulsa using last year's stats. Tulsa returned 9 starters on offense and have 7 returning starters on defense this year, so they are certainly not losing ground to Hawaii, who has just 13 returning starters. In other words, the gap between these teams should be less this season - and it clearly is - and Hawaii shouldn't be favored by more than the 5 ½ points that my math model would have favored them by using last years numbers. I'll take Tulsa in a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more based on the line value and Hawaii's recent 2-14 ATS mark as a favorite.

Auburn 24 at TENNESSEE 31 OVER 44.5
02-Oct-04 04:45 PM Pacific Time
Tennessee's two freshman quarterbacks have done an incredible job leading a Volunteers offense that ranks among the best in the nation, averaging 7.0 yards per play against a schedule of defensive teams that I rate as 0.1 yppl better than average. The Vols rate as 1.8 yppl better than average offensively and that attack was even able to move the ball well (5.6 yppl) against a good Florida defense that has allowed only 4.3 yppl and which I rate as 1.2 yppl better than average. Auburn's defense presents another good challenge for QB's Ainge and Schaeffer, as the Tigers defend the pass extremely well (4.4 yards per pass play allowed this season). Auburn isn't nearly as dominant against the run (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed and just 0.2 yprp better than average), so Tennessee's star back Cedric Houston should continue to post good numbers. The Vols have averaged 6.1 yprp this season (against teams that allow a combined 4.5 yprp on defense) and they should approach 6 yprp in this game. Overall, Auburn's defense is 0.6 yppl better than average, so the Volunteers have the advantage on that side of the ball. The offense will also have a distinct advantage when the Tigers have the ball, as Auburn has averaged 6.6 yppl this season and rate at 0.7 yppl better than average (after compensating for the level of opposing defenses) while Tennessee's rebuilt defense rates as 0.6 yppl worse than average so far this season giving up 5.8 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. I expect plenty of points in this game and my overall ratings favor Tennessee by 2 points. The Vols do qualify in a decent 84-34-4 ATS situation and they have a solid 54.9% chance of covering at the current line of -2 ½ points. However, the better play looks like it may be the Over, which has a 56.9% chance of winning at the current total of 44 ½ points. I'll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 47 points or lower.

**SHORE BET** · 09-30-2004, 05:41 PM

Thanks Who2beton., for all your input.

Do you have the gold sheet plays or did I miss them on a tread.

Thanks in advance.

**Sports Guru** · 09-30-2004, 05:56 PM

Well those newsletters were sent so I am sure he can find them. At this point I am going to say goodbye to everybody here. I attempted to give you guys as much as I could (and my only request was not to post ALL of them). Posting these is really the equilivant to spitting in my face as I did the best I could to give you "some" of them each week specifically the ones you asked for. Enjoy the information this week guys...soon there will be nothing to post. In any even good luck to everybody here.

**maxell** · 09-30-2004, 06:09 PM

Score

College "Favorite Four"

Alabama Birminghan Over Cincinnati by 12 PPQ 100%
South Carolina over Alabama by 12 PPQ 100%
Kansas over Nebraska by 6 PPQ 100%
Hawaii over Tulsa by 25 PPQ 100%

NFL "Double Plays"

New England over Buffalo by 17 PPQ 100%
Indianapolis over Jacksonville by 14 PPQ 100%

**maxell** · 09-30-2004, 06:13 PM

Pointwise

College

1 Toledo
1 Syracuse
2 Virginia Tech
3 Texas A&M
4 Nebraska
4 Arkansas
5 Louisville
5 Oregon

Pro

2 Baltimore
3 Jets
4 San Diego
4 Atlanta
5 Tampa Bay

**who2beton** · 09-30-2004, 11:10 PM

Shotgun this is for you:

Spread Report Online

Greetings...

Can't complain about a 6-3 week, but after starting out 6-1 it was a
bit of
a letdown to miss on Sunday Night and Monday Night especially when our
teams
(bucs and skins) had every chance to win those games. But we move on.

This week in the NFL there are no less than 10, that's TEN, home dogs
out of
14 games. Wow. No need to lay any points this week as we'll be on a few
of
the home puppies. Also looking at a mix of ugly dogs--which have been
good
to us--and large home faves in college. A total of 4 Top Plays in
College
and 4 in Pro make for a full weekend.

With most of our fomulas kicking in this weekend, don't let that cloud
the
picture. I post the formula games primarily for record keeping and
monitoring purposes. They are useful, but make sure if you're going to
use
them that you consider the 'cancel outs'. Here are my thoughts:

1.) The Real Number Line runs from Weeks 4-7 and is generally good for
about
60% year in and year out.

2.) I'm expecting the Yardage Formula to have a strong bounce-back
season.

3.) The Turnover Formula is a little more fickle, and I would give it a
week
or two before making a judgement. Even at that, I don't expect it to
finish
below .500.

4.) Despite an 0-2 start, the Turnover Super System is pretty reliable
and
you won't find me going against it. You can usually bank it finishing
above
.500.

5.) The Rush Yardage System I'm using this year was 16-4 last year and
is
1-0 so far this year. I consider it worthwhile.

6.) The Blowout Formula had a fantastic year last season going 28-5
ATS. If
history is any indication, I would not expect those results this year.
Anywhere from 52-63% ATS is my guess for the Blowout Formula this year.

7.) And of course there are my Top Plays which, as usual, who can tell
what
they will do? I'm looking for a winning season. And don't forget my
Props,
exotics, and non-traditionals which are a mix of moneyline games,
teasers,
parlays, etc.

A plethora of info to choose from, but keep in mind that what I am
personally playing will be the Top Plays. All the other stuff I might
mix
together for some small parlays and teasers for action. Good luck...

WEEK FOUR:

-----------------------------
01.) NFL Real Number Formula: 0-0
-----------------------------

CARDINALS
BEARS
BENGALS
BROWNS
GIANTS

-------------------------
02.) NFL Yardage Formula: 0-0
-------------------------

BEARS
BROWNS
JAGS
BENGALS
CARDINALS
CHARGERS
BUCS

--------------------------
03.) NFL Turnover Formula: 0-0
--------------------------

BEARS
PACKERS
REDSKINS
TEXANS
JAGS
BENGALS
CARDINALS
CHARGERS
BRONCOS
49ERS
CHIEFS

-------------------------------
04.) NFL Turnover Super System: 0-2
-------------------------------

DOLPHINS
49ERS

-----------------------------
05.) NFL Rush Yardage System: 1-0
-----------------------------

BENGALS

-------------------------
06.) NFL Blowout Formula: 0-0
-------------------------

Plays begin Week Seven

--------------------
07.) NFL Commentary:
--------------------

Giants @ PACKERS

My initial thoughts on this game is that I like Green Bay at home off
two
losses versus Giants off two wins. That's great as far as winning goes,
but
I'm not sure I want to lay 7 with the Packers right now--especially
against
the Gints who seem to be improving under Coughlin and with Warner at
the
helm. Nevertheless I think Green Bay shows up. Lean: PACKERS

Eagles @ BEARS

Amazingly the Eagles continue to cover the line. They have had 3
consecutive
seasons with double digit wins in the ATS column and are 3-0 this year.
That's gotta' be some kind of record for the NFL. Obviously it's hard
to go
against that; especially considering that we really don't know yet just
HOW
much better the Eagles are with Owens. At this point they are not a
team I
would go against. I'm also not about to lay 9 on the road in a
non-division
game where the Birds could let down a bit versus an improved Bears team
playing respectable defense. Traditional wisdom would be on the Bears.
Lean:
BEARS

Redskins @ BROWNS

Was really looking forward to being all over the Browns here, but the
Redskins lost Monday night. With that loss we'll get a look at how
Gibbs
inspires a team off back-to-back losses. Redskins are a pretty decent
team,
one of only two in the NFL who are 3-0 in outyarding their opponents
this
year. The Browns are also off 2 losses, and we've seen what they can do
Week
One when they dominated a good Ravens team. Someone has to lose the
game and
drop their third straight. The feeling here is that home field will
come
into play in this setting. Lean: BROWNS

Patriots @ BILLS

If the Bills are smart, they can win this game. A committment to the
run
could get them the win here as they already have a very respectable
defense.
I love going with strong defenses getting points, and this game is at
home
to boot. Granted, they're facing the Pats, but if Buffalo will run the
ball
down the Pats throat, they will cover the game if not win straight up.
Bills
are winless and a home dog off a bye, traditionally a winning combo:
BILLS

Raiders @ TEXANS

Houston has to be pretty pumped after last week's road win versus the
Chiefs. They really accomplished something there. Meanwhile the Raiders
seem
to have something brewing as well. The have depth 3 deep at the QB
position
so that's not a concern. There's an old system that says go with the
home
dog off a straight up dog win. It's been very solid over a number of
years.
But further research shows that if the home dog is off 2 or more wins,
the
winning percentage sky-rockets to over 75% ATS. Meanwhile that leaves a
50-50 proposition for all the rest (those who are at home off only the
1 SU
win). That's what we have with the Texans, so I would disregard taking
that
system into consideration. I like what the Raiders have going on, and
the
price is cheap. Lean: RAIDERS

Colts @ JAGUARS

I labeled the Jacksonville Jaguars my Most Improved Team of the Year.
The
last 4 times I did that the team in question went to the Superbowl:
Broncos
in '97, Titans in '99, Ravens in 2000, and Panthers in '03. This year I
dissented from that trend and named the Ravens as my AFC choice,
believing
that while the Jags would be the most improved, their division (and the
AFC
in general) would be too much to overcome. I'm beginning to wonder as
last
week they won AT TENNESSEE.

Keep in mind that the Titans were at home off a home loss--a bad home
loss.
This says a lot about what's happening in Jaguar country. They are
beginning
to strongly resemble last year's Panthers with a strong defense and
average
offense, if not below average. But that average offense along with
Leftwich
seems to be picking up the pace late in the game when it matters the
most--another trait of last year's Panthers. They are also playing very
opportunistic football, seemingly winning games on sheer will power.

The Jags won SU as a road dog last week and are now a home dog off 2 or
more
SU wins. Make that 32-11 ATS the last 12 years or so. Can they knock
off the
"other" powerhouse in their division this week? Don't discount the
possibility. Consider that they have beaten the Titans and Broncos
already.
Also consider that the Colts have amassed nealry 80 points in scoring
in
their last 2 games combined and could let down a bit. Not a good
situation
when facing the league's best defense: JAGUARS

Bengals @ STEELERS

Steelers have been a little fickle for my taste, as have the Bengals.
But
the Bengals D has surprised me somewhat with their aggressive play.
Underdogs that gave up 220> yards rushing were 8-2 ATS the following
week
last year--most of them outright wins. The Bungles allowed over 250
yards
rushing last week. Look for them to shut down the Steeler's rushing
game and
force the Pitt pass game into mistakes with their aggressive pass rush.
Lean: BENGALS

Falcons @ PANTHERS

Atlanta leads the NFC South at 3-0 while the Cats are 2-1. The question
here
is will the Falcons go to 4-0 at the expense of the Panthers falling to
2-2.
I doubt it. The Panthers are still a very formidable team to contend
with.
Having said that, two thoughts come to mind: One, generally you would
not
want to lay points with the Panthers. Two, I can't forget how
rediculously
innept Mike Vick made the Panther D look on an ESPN Sunday Night game
last
year. Can he do it again? Or will the Panthers use that as motivation?
They've had a bye week to prepare, and if they'll commit to DeShawn
Foster,
they should cover the -3.5 line. Lean: PANTHERS

Saints @ CARDINALS

Statistically the Cards are the league's worst team, but turnovers have
kept
them alive. The Saints seem to have something brewing, but as usual
that
means nothing with them as they are the most fickly, under-achieving
team in
the league. This is a tough call. At N.O. -3, The number seems low to
me.
Hard to go with a bad team, but there are some reasons to believe the
Cards
might get the job done, nonetheleast is the fact that the Saints have
an
uncanny ability to lose to bad teams: PASS

Jets @ DOLPHINS

The Jets seem to be the real deal and will probably win this game. But
will
they cover the generous Six point spot? Hey, anytime you can get six
with
the Dolphins at home, take it. They have a respectable defense and need
this
game. Road faves not the best at covering off a bye. Do or die for
Miami and
Wannstedt. I'll bite here, but only because the line is right: DOLPHINS

Broncos @ BUCS

Man, what a tough call. This appears to be 2 teams headed in two
different
directions. The Bucs just can't seem to get it going. They have been
fairly
competitive their last two games but just keep falling short. On the
other
side you have the Broncos who will look to climb to .500. The Broncos
have
outyarded their opponents more than any other team in the NFL and could
conceivably make this game ugly. On the other hand, the Yardage Formula
Strongly suggests taking the Bucs. This early in the Season it's hard
to get
a good read on the Bucs. This line seems low here, but it's a very
tough
call: PASS

Titans @ CHARGERS:

Eenie meenie miney moe: PASS

Rams @ 49ERS

San Francisco is believed to be the second worst team in the NFL.
Statistically, they are not. Far from it, they have been surprisingly
effective offensively. The Rams are doing precisely what
many--including
myself--thought they would. The 49ers can win this game, but we'll keep
it
at bay in view of the Ram's potential. Lean: 49ERS

Chiefs @ RAVENS

I like the Chiefs here. They seem to be having internal probs, but this
team
to TOO talented to fold just yet. At 0-3, their season is over if they
do
not win this game. The Ravens might be too much for them to overcome,
but I
fully expect an all out effort from KC this week which should keep the
game
close if not earn the outright win: CHIEFS

-------------------
08.) NFL Top Plays:
-------------------

BILLS +6
JAGUARS +4
DOLPHINS +6
CHIEFS +5

--------------------
09.) NCAA Top Plays:
--------------------

Baylor @ TEXAS

This game is a mismatch from the word go, but of course there's that
huge
line. In their opener Baylor lost by 42 to UAB on the Road, if that
gives
you an idea of where I'm headed here. The Bears followed up with 2 home
wins; one against Texas State-San Marcos by 7, and then North Texas by
23.

The Longhorns of course are pre-season contenders for the National
Title.
Opening up at home with a 65-0 trouncing of North Texas, they followed
with
a scare by nearly losing to the Razorbacks in a game some pegged as a
revenge for them. After a bye week, Texas followed up by coming home
and
failing to cover against Intra-State rival Rice.

My feeling here is that the Longhorns, being at home again, are largely
due
to play up to snuff. With Baylor being their opponent, that seems to be
a
nice spot to return to opening day form. I also feel the Bears blew
their
wad last week in their huge win over North Texas.

The Longhorns are rushing for 370 yards a game versus the Bears
allowing
nearly 200. Looks like a 50-pt win to me...

TEXAS -37

Washington @ STANFORD

After opening the Season 2-0 in convincing fashion (a combined 80-13)
over
San Jose and BYU, Stanford spent 2 weeks preparing for Co-Champs
Southern
Cal. It paid off as Stanford nearly upset the Trojans as 3-touchdown
underdogs. The problem now is getting the upstart Cardinals to play
with the
same intensity this Saturday.

While the Cards are 12-pt faves, there is no guarantee that this will
be a
cakewalk for them against the Washington Huskies. UW is 0-3 and 0-1 in
the
Pac 10 and coming off a 38-3 embarrassent at Notre Dame. After allowing
nealry 1000 yards in thier last 2 games combined and in dire need of a
win,
I look for the Huskies to return to the form of their opener against
Fresno
in which they limited the Bulldogs high power offense to a surprising
262
yards total offense. Washingoton outyarded FSU in that game by nearly
100
yards, losing due to being -3 in the turnover category.

In their second game, they followed up with a strong performance
against
UCLA, falling short by six points. Last week they again were -4 in the
Turnover Category versus the Irish. Add it all up and I see the Huskies
putting in a strong bounce-back performance versus a Cardinal team that
may
be a little flat after last week's wire-to-wire loss versus So Cal...

WASHINGTON +12

Mississippi State @ VANDERBILT

Mississippi State is a bad football team. Then again so is Ball State,
and
they came through for us last week. I'm not going to try to make a
statistical case for the Bulldogs who lost a game to Maine University,
but
like Ball State last week, I think this is a good spot to jump on the
Ugly
dog at an inflated price after last week's 51-0 loss. State is not that
good, but they do have 1 win and 1 cover under their belt against
Tulane--and a convincing one at that.

Their two blowout losses, in all fairness, were to SEC Supremacy Auburn
and
LSU. Their shocking loss to Maine was a sandwhich game between those
two SEC
games. Just like Memphis a few weeks ago as 22-pt faves, we think
laying 13
with Vandy it too much...

MS STATE +13

Smu @ BOISE STATE

You gotta' love BSU here after their scare last week against BYU.
They're at
home again and face an outmatched Mustangs team that are flat horrible.
SMU
got a blowout win last week at home to San Jose State, which is a good
reason to go against them this week. Look for them to return to their
norm
as they take to the road where they have been outscored by a combined
103-7
this year.

With BSU coming off a poor offensive performance being held to UNDER 30
points for only their 4th time in 29 games, look for them to score at
will
against SMU. After allowing 92 points in their last 3 games, look for
the
Broncos defense to show up also. They smashed Idaho 65-7 in their
opener.
That sounds about right...

BOISE STATE -37

---------------------------------------
10.) Dave's Props and Non-Traditionals: 0-0
---------------------------------------

2-TEAM TEASE: FLORIDA -1 + UNLV +1

**who2beton** · 09-30-2004, 11:14 PM

UFB Strategy Report

This is your weekly UFB Strategy report. For record purposes, I will be tracking all strategies. For my own personal plays, I will only be playing strategies that still carry a Z-Factor of 3.00 or higher. Strategies 10, 13, 14 and 22 are currently below 3.00. You will have to decide on your own how you want to approach these strategies.

These plays will be updated each Wednesday of the season. The college stats versus opponents will begin October 2nd. Prior to that the stats are meaningless because the amount of games are too few.

As last year, all lines are based on the Wednesday line when I create the report. At the end of the season, like last year, I will rerun the systems using the closing line, which is what I use in my database.

Opponents Stats will be available Thursday by Noon central. I will email them at that time.

2004 OVERALL RECORD YTD 21-14

2004 COLLEGE RECORD YTD 9-4
2004 NFL RECORD YTD 12-10

COLLEGE STRATEGIES

STRATEGY 8 3.18
113-70-2 (YTD 4-1)

105 NAVY +1 As dog only

STRATEGY 9 4.73
101-44-3 (YTD 1-1)

178 NORTHWESTERN +11
145 N. CAROLINA +28.5
195 ARKANSAS STATE +17.5

STRATEGY 10 2.88
133-90-5 (YTD 0-0)

No Plays

STRATEGY 11 3.54
73-36-0 (YTD 0-0)

No Plays

STRATEGY 12 3.27
46-20-1 (YTD 0-0)

No Plays

STRATEGY 13 2.32
39-21-1 (YTD 3-1)

168 MISSOURI -7

STRATEGY 14 2.72
37-17-1 (YTD 0-0)

No Plays

STRATEGY 15 3.02
213-155-4 (YTD 1-1)

No Plays

STRATEGY 16 5.15
115-49-5 (YTD 0-0)

No Plays

NFL STRATEGIES

STRATEGY 18 3.92
63-26-3 (YTD 1-1)

No Plays

STRATEGY 19 3.37
75-39-3 (YTD 4-4)

No Plays

STRATEGY 20 4.81
360-242-24 (YTD 2-4)

CHICAGO +9
OAKLAND â€“2.5
PITTSBURGH -4
SAN FRANCISCO +3.5

STRATEGY 21 4.81
789-609-36 (YTD 0-0)

No Plays

STRATEGY 22 2.73
71-42-2 (YTD 0-0)

KANSAS CITY +5.5

STRATEGY 23 3.59
75-37-5 (YTD 0-0)

MIAMI +6

STRATEGY 24 3.44
145-92-10 (YTD 4-1)

NY GIANTS +7

STRATEGY 25 3.30
50-22-1 (YTD 1-0)

NY JETS/MIAMI UNDER 36.5

STRATEGY 26 3.45
47-19-2 (YTD 0-0)

No Plays

STRATEGY 27 4.08
22-2-3 (YTD 0-0)

No Plays

LAST WEEKS PLAYS

COLLEGE

No Plays

NFL

BALTIMORE â€“3 W
SAN FRANCISCO +10.5 L
WASHINGTON â€“2 L
NEW ORLEANS +7 W
JACKSONVILLE +5.5 W
HOUSTON/KANSAS CITY UNDER 48.5 W

THIS WEEKS PLAYS
Games in Bold indicate systems with Z-Factorâ€™s of 3.00 or higher.

COLLEGE

105 NAVY +1 As dog only
178 NORTHWESTERN +11
145 N. CAROLINA +28.5
195 ARKANSAS STATE +17.5
168 MISSOURI -7

NFL

CHICAGO +9
OAKLAND â€“2.5
PITTSBURGH -4
SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
KANSAS CITY +5.5
MIAMI +6
NY GIANTS +7
NY JETS/MIAMI UNDER 36.5

**who2beton** · 09-30-2004, 11:24 PM

Steam Sheet

The Steam Sheet suffered its
worst weekend since 1997 with a horrible 1-6-1 record on the eight featured plays.

STATS WORTH REMEMBERING
FROM THE STAT PAGE: Rush Doublers (Teams who rushed
for double the amount of ground yards than their opponents)
were 12-5 ATS this week and are 72-23 for the season while
Double Digit Dog Rushers (Teams who were underdogs of
+10 or more and gained more ground yards that their opponents)
were 3-0 to the money last week, running the season log
to 13-1. Houston outgained the Miami Hurricanes by 14
yards despite the absence of super TB Anthony Evans. Still the
Cats wound up on the wrong end of a 38-13 score thanks to
a pair of turnover-touchdowns for the Canes. Nevada spent
almost the entire second half of its loss to San Diego State in
its own territory. The Wolves didn't cross midfield until their
final possession of the game, a 77-yard drive against SDSU
scrubs. TCU allowed the pedestrian South Florida offense to
gain 407 yards and to score four touchdowns in its last four
possessions of the game. The loss was the first home defeat for
the Frogs in sixteen games. Third down was the story. The
Toads were one for 12 on third down conversions. South
Florida was 13 of 21. Stanford QB, Trent Edwards was nearly
unstoppable in the first half against the nation's top-ranked
team. Edwards completed 20 of 26 for 164 yards and two TD's
against USC's crack defense. But Pete Carroll is one of the best
defensive coaches on the planet and he made a few adjustments
at halftime. I'll say! Stanford, which scored 28 points
and gained 291 yards in the first half, got no points and 36
yards in the second. Utah fell behind Air Force 14-0 before
ripping off 35 straight points in under 15 minutes in the
second and third quarters. But the Utes allowed 471 yards to
frosh QB Shaun Carney and the Air Force offense and couldn't
get up and over the number. Utah sacked Carney four times,
a significant number considering that the Force allowed only
one sack all of last season. For the second week in a row, Texas
Tech overcame a three touchdown deficit to win. Kansas led
30-5 in the second quarter but was shutout the rest of the way
to fall to the Red Raiders 31-30, the largest comeback ever for
a KU opponent. The Jayhawks could have put the game away
with 3:46 left, but Scott Webb's field goal try hit the upright.
Less than a minute later, Taurean Henderson ran 70 yards for
Tech's winning score. Louisville, Tom Scott's top college
phone pick last weekend, outgained North Carolina 107-4 in
the third quarter then kept the ball for more than 11 minutes
of the fourth in its 34-0 victory. Louie's first team defense has
not allowed a point this season. The Cardinal pass offense is
the model of efficiency. Its passers have completed 73.4% for
the season. Maryland ran up 685 yards of offense and a school
record 35 first downs in the dismantling of Duke. The Terps
completely stuffed the Duke offense, yielding just 185 yards.
Two of the Blue Devil touchdowns were a 94-yard kickoff
return and an 85-yard interception return. Maryland won by
34 despite three interceptions and three fumbles (none lost) by
QB Joel Statham. Talk about stuffing an offense, NC State
yielded just SIX yards to Virginia Tech in the first 42 minutes
of the game. At one point in the second quarter, seven straight
Tech plays went for minus yardage and seven of the Hokies
first nine plays (excluding punts) of the third quarter went for
zero or negative yards. In all, Virginia Tech had six drives that
ended in minus yardage. It was no surprise Army lost its 18th
consecutive game, but we were a bit shocked to see the Cadets
cross the UConn forty only once the entire game!

PHONY PHINALS
Oregon State did everything it could to hand Arizona State a
win and the Beavers got the job done. OSU committed six
penalties that gave the Sun Devils first downs and rushed for
a minus-19 yards, but it was at the turnover-touchdown that
the Beavers excelled. Trailing 7-6, OSU took the ball to the Sun
Devil 32 when Derek Anderson hit Joe Newton for an apparent
TD pass. But Newton fumbled at the one and Arizona State
recovered and drove 80 yards for a field goal and a 10-6 lead.
18 seconds later, Oregon State was running out the clock on
its own 12-yard line when Derek Anderson and Dwight Wright
messed up a handoff and ASU recovered. On the next play, the
Sun Devils went up by 11. Earlier in the half, Oregon State had
a 51-yard TD pass called back because of an illegal procedure
penalty. Southern Mississippi turned two Tulane interceptions
into touchdowns and recovered a fumble to stop a Green
Wave drive on the USM five. Mississippi took its longest road
trip in school history last week when the Rebels visited
Laramie. They shoulda stayed in bed. Ethan Flatt, who had a
pretty good day against Vanderbilt the week before, was
picked off four times and fumbled once, leading to 13 Wyoming
points in the 37-32 Cowboy win. Ole Miss was flagged for a
season-high 14 penalties by officials Kit Carson, Pecos Bill and
Bat Masterson but it was Ethan who came out Flatt. Of his 25
incomplete passes, four were intercepted (two in the Wyoming
end zone) and 12 others were batted away. Ole Miss outgained
Wyoming by 170 yards, had 11 more first downs and ran 30
more plays, but had to settle for field goals on four of the nine
trips inside the Wyoming 30. It appears by the final score that
Clemson gave Florida State a fight but the truth is the Tigers
were held to just 171 yards of offense in their 19-point loss.
Charlie Whitehurst continues to struggle at QB for Clemmie.
He completed just 10 of 24 passes for 88 yards, threw four
interceptions and lost a fumble. Clemson got 14 of its 22
points off two Justin Miller kickoff returns of 96 and 86 yards.
The final was 20-3 but Florida should have beaten Kentucky
a lot worse than that. The Gators had the ball FOUR times
inside the Kentucky five yard line and came away with a total
of THREE points, and that doesn't include Florida's gameending
drive to the Kentucky four.

Computer whiz, Dan Tesinferno's #1 Play
3* BYU over Colorado St by 11
We warned you about taking Boise State against BYU last
week because we knew that the Cougars had two games circled
on their calendar this year. That was one of them. A revenge
game for the second worst home loss in BYU history. What
was the worst loss? Last year's 58-13 maiming by these CSU
Rams. The Cougars came within two feet of beating Boise on
that infamous blue rug. Hughes Stadium has green grass
and Colorado State is nowhere near as good as the Broncos.
For the numerologists out there, note that the Mormons are
26-7 SU with conference revenge since 1980, including a
perfect 8-0 to the number in that role when made an underdog.
Couple that stat with Colorado State's undistinguished 4-14
ATS log as a favorite into revenge and you have everything
you need shear this woolly beast. COUGARS EAT SHEEP 31-20!

A Salvo from Nicky "Boom Boom" Cannon
3* AUBURN over Tennessee by 9
For all the success that Tennessee has had in recent years it's
amazing that a stat like the one you are about to see exists.
Tennessee is 0-12 ATS in its last 12 home games against .666
or better major conference opponents. Auburn fits that description
and the Tigers have the ability to make it 0-13.
Aubbie is running for 210 yards per game this season but
three of the games were against trash. Still, since Tennessee
is coughing up 121 rush yards per game, we'll give the Tigers
125 rush yards here. At that number, the Vols are 21-53 ATS
overall and just 10-37 to vs the spread against winning
opponents. There's one more twist. We have a senior QB as an
underdog against a freshman, or, in this case, a pair of
freshmen. Florida should have beaten the Volunteers here. I
think there a good chance that Auburn will. WAR EAGLE SOARS OVER ROCKY TOP 19-10!

Tom Scott
4* NC STATE over Wake Forest by 22
I used the Wolfpack as part of my college late phone sweep
last weekend because I thought Virginia Tech had little chance
against NC State's crack defense. I'm using sort of the same
reasoning here. The Wolfpack rush defense is 2.1 yards per
carry better than Wake's, leading me to assume NC State will
outrush the Deacons. Wake Forest is 2-25 SU and 7-20 to
the number in ACC play when the other guy runs better. The
Deacs are also 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 trips to
Raleigh. Back to that NC State defense. The Wolves are a
powerful 24-1 SU and 20-5 vs the money when they allow
less than 17 points at home. I don't see Wake getting that
many against this stubborn bunch. Latin 101 says
AMO, AMAS, AMATO 28-6!

3* OKLAHOMA ST over Iowa St by 28
They say Iowa State is much improved. I wouldn't know. The
Cyclones lost to Iowa, a team that has scored two touchdowns
in the last two weeks and Northern Illinois had them down 34-
20 before the Huskies started giving the game away. I'll say
Iowa State is improved after they cover the spread in a
conference game for the first time since November of 2002
(11X ATS losses). Oklahoma State is averaging 333 yards per
game on the ground. Iowa State is 6-25 ATS in conference play
when the Cyclones allow more than 200 rush yards. Stillwater
is a tough place to play (OSU 13-1 SU; 10-3 ATS here last 14)
no matter how improved you are.
STILL WATER RUNS DEEP 41-13!

3* AIR FORCE over Navy BY 10 (THURSDAY)
This game has two of my favorite technical twists to it. I will
play every home dog who has beaten his opponent more than
80% of the time. Air Force is 20-4 SU against the Middies
since 1980. I will also play any home dog who has been the
favorite in more than 80% of the series games. Navy hasn't
been favored in this game since 1982. The Falcon offense has
cranked it up a couple of notches since Shaun Carney took
over at QB (that 302 yards rushing against Utah last week
won't be matched by any other team this year). There's one
more stat you need to see. Against the other two service academies,
the Force is 8-0 SU when playing with revenge.
CARNEYVORES EAT GOATS - 44-34!

MOUNTAIN JACK
3* MIAMI over NY Jets by 6
Let's put it this way: This line is wrong! Go back over the 50
meetings since 1980 and tell me how many times the Jets have
been favored by four or more points against the Dolphins. If
your research turned up a big fat ZERO, you have done your
job. Don't think for a moment Miami can't win this game. Jay
Fiedler is back at the helm and the Dartmouth Flash beat the
Jets twice last season. Here's another little tidbit. Miami has
given up an average of 15 points per game this year. The
Airplanes are 12-66 ATS as favorites when they score less than
20, including a perfect 0-12 ATS in that situation when the
opponent is off a SU loss as a favorite. Maybe it's too hard for
you to take the Dolphins here. But think how easy it was to
take Minnesota last week. FIEDLER ON THE ROOF 19-13!

3* PHILADELPHIA over Chicago by 19
I used the Eagles as my NFL Monster Play last Sunday because
I thought the Lions were authors of two consecutive phony
wins and a solid team like Philadelphia would expose their
flaws. They did. Now, the Greenbirds travel to Chicago, who
miraculously covered a game in Minnesota that should have
been a 30-point blowout. Another phony win. I'll say this
about the NFL, "There are more bad teams in the league now
than at any time I can remember and I've been following the
sport for more than 40 years." Philadelphia is not one of those
teams. Chicago is. Since 2000, The Eagles are 12-3 ATS on the
road against losing teams and 25-2 vs the money in their 27
road wins over that same period. Philadelphia will not lose this
game. The Bears have no players left.
CATCH THE WIND 29-10!

Another Salvo from Nick's big gun
3* BUFFALO over New England by 6
With their backs up against the wall, expect a supreme effort from the Bills here. Much has been made about Bill Belichik's
ability to get into Drew Bledsoe's head but, if I remember right, Big Bill was the head coach when Buffalo beat New England
31-0 to begin last season. We know that the Bills don't score many, but they don't give up many either and can keep this game
close enough for the cover. I read this little Super Bowl jinx thing in Marc Lawrence's Playbook. Super Bowl winners coming
of a bye week the following season are 0-6 to the number over the last six years. Marc also offered up this intriguing stat: New
England is 1-17-1 ATS in its second road game of the season over the last 19 years. I like my angles to be a little more impersonal
but I have no problem using 23-1 trends to use a decent team that needs this game like a vampire bat needs blood.
JUST LIKE I DREW IT UP 20-14!

**who2beton** · 09-30-2004, 11:29 PM

Red Sheet

OCTOBER 2, 2004 VOLUME 36, NUMBER 5
VIRGINIA TECH 31 - West Virginia 16 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Virginia Tech minus 3, and is now minus
2. The Hokies have been among the nation's elite squads for the past decade, with an
opportunistic & punishing defense being Beamer's trademark. This year, Tech opened with
a respectable setback to No 1 USC, & is in off a wrenching 1-pt loss to NCSt, in which it
missed a winning FG as time expired. Thus, they've have plummeted to also-ran status in
this week's polls, while the Mountaineers sit as either the 6th or 7th ranked team in the
nation. That, along with the fact that there is the added motivation of double revenge, puts
the Mounties squarely in Tech's crosshairs. WestVa is indeed undefeated, but its only true
test was a home OT win over Maryland, which turned it over five times.

RATING: VIRGINIA TECH 89
GEORGIA 23 - Louisiana State 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. Oh,
how the Bulldogs want this one. A year ago, the Tigers wound up the season as co-national
champs, while Georgia settled for the 7th spot in the land. Had it not been for Lsu, the
'Dawgs might very well have been among those teams which fought for all the marbles in
January. The Tigers not only won their regular season match, with a FG in the final 1:22,
but simply destroyed the Bulldogs in the SEC title match, 34-13, with scoring plays of an 87-
yd run, a 43-yd pass, & an 18-yd interception return. Both are once again among best,
defensively, & both are capable of offensive fireworks. However, in Greene, the Bulldog
have a huge edge at QB. As in the above matchup, revenge rears its head.
RATING: GEORGIA 89

TOLEDO 51 - Ball State 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Toledo minus 14½, and is now minus 15. Obviously,
goes without saying that the key to this one will be that Rocket defense, which was simply
annihilated in its opening 2 games, allowing an exact same 63 pts in losses to Minnesota &
Kansas, followed by a 45-pt defensive display at Eastern Mich. However, offensively, Toledo
isn't missing a beat, behind QB Gradkowski, who completed 22-of-27 aerials for the
2nd straight game, in last week's 45-17 rout of Temple (21½ pt cover). That should continue
here, as BallSt ranks 87th in passing "D". Yet another avenger in home series.
RATING: TOLEDO 88

BOISE STATE 70 - Southern Methodist 10 - (8:05) -- Line opened at Boise minus 35½, and is now minus
37. You wonder if the spread can be high enough here. The Broncos have been among the
scoring leaders for the past few years, with blowouts their trademark. However, they are in
off a pair of less than impressive showings, in 2 TD spread miss at Utep, & a narrow 1-pt
home escape vs Byu, a team they demolished by 38 pts in '03 (31-pt cover). The Mustangs
present the perfect opponent for a quick return to reality, especially with Smu coming in off
its first win in 1½ years. Look for Zabransky & Co to do this one up in style.
RATING: BOISE STATE 88

TEXAS-EL PASO 31 - New Mexico State 14 - (9:05) -- Line opened at Utep minus 3½, and is now minus 6.
The only reason that this one isn't higher is the fact that this represents the first chalk role
for the Miners since Oct 20, 2001, when they couldn't handle such a burden, losing 40-28,
as FG favs against San Jose St. Remember: never ask a bad team to win on the field.
However, as foreign as this setup is, we just can't ignore the fact that Utep is a team on the
rise, with the leadership of Price invaluable. Covered by 12½ hosting Boise in last game, &
catch overland lacking Aggies off devastating home loss to New Mex. Miners!
RATING: TEXAS-EL PASO 88

Philadelphia 23 - CHICAGO 22 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Philadelphia minus 8½, and is still minus 8½. We
have been riding these Eagles, in the early going, & with great success. The addition of
Owens has cemented Philly's Super Bowl possibilities, with McNabb benefiting immensely,
from his presence. But their success has resulted in being installed as more than a TD
chalk on the road, against one of the more unnoticed, but profitable NFL outfits. Chicago
has already taken Green Bay at Lambeau, and has dominated all foes, overland, to date.
'Da Bears are a remarkable 12-2-1 ATS hosting non-division squads.
RATING: CHICAGO 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Syracuse, Kentucky, Missouri, Tcu - NFL: NwEngland, San Fran, Baltimore

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): UConn (-3 to -7); Vanderbilt (-9½ to -12); OklahomaSt (-
15 to -18); Utep (-3½ to -6); Rutgers (+8½ to +6½); California (-2 to -4); Marshall (-5 to -6½); Navy (+1½ to
Pick); Miami-Fla (-12 to -13½); Illinois (+17 to +15½); NoCaroSt (-8½ to -10); Purdue (Pick to -1½); FresnoSt
(-12½ to -14); Missouri (-5½ to -7); TexA&M (-2½ to -4); Boise (-35½ to -37); Hawaii (-9½ to -11).

RED SHEET ONLINE
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

**Tony Vegas** · 10-01-2004, 04:29 PM

who2beton..............can you shoot me an email?

**who2beton** · 10-01-2004, 04:40 PM

How? I don't have your email address.

**Tony Vegas** · 10-01-2004, 04:43 PM

email

i will get yours from BC..................just want to ask you a question! thanks

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