Football Newsletters (week #5)

[Sports Guru]

HEY GUYS JUST SO THE CONFUSION IS CLEARED UP AS YOU CAN SEE NOBODY POSTED THE NEWSLETTERS YET AND THE REASON IS SIMPLE...I HAVE HELD ONTO THEM TO PROVE A POINT THAT THEY ORIGINATE FROM ME. UNFORTUNATLY I LOST A SOURCE BECAUSE THEY WERE POSTED HERE...THAT BEING SAID LETS TAKE A LOOK AT HOW THEY FARED THIS PAST WEEKEND.

WEEK #4 RESULTS

1. THE RED SHEET 5 WINS; 1 LOSS (83.3%)
2. WINNINGPOINTS FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER 7 WINS; 3 LOSSES (70%) (AGAIN SWEEPT TOP TWO PLAYS IN NFL IGNORE THEIR NCAA)
3. PLAYBOOK MID-WEEK ALERT 2 WINS; 1 LOSS (66.6%)
4. THE SPORTS REPORTER 8 WINS; 5 LOSSES (61.5%) (BEST BET SELECTIONS REMAIN ON FIRE)

COMULATIVE RESULTS (WEEK #1 THROUGH WEEK #4)

1. THE RED SHEET 16 WINS; 7 LOSSES (69.6%) (4 WINNING WEEKS!)
2. WINNINGPOINTS FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER 21 WINS; 14 LOSSES (60%)
3. NORTHCOAST'S POWERPLAYS 25 WINS; 20 LOSSES (55.5.%)
4. THE GREEN SHEET 17 WINS; 14 LOSSES (54.8%)
5. THE STEAM SHEET 15 WINS; 13 LOSSES (53.6%) (TERRIBLE 1-7 WEEKEND BUT STILL THE BEST)

ALSO FINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR THOSE WHO HAVE NOT TRIED THE FREE TRIAL TO DO SO. EMAIL ME AT [email protected]/ FYI IM GETTING TWO REALLY COOL SHEETS THIS WEEK NONE OF WHICH HAVE EVER BEEN POSTED HERE. AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO EVERYBODY THIS WEEK.

[Sports Guru]

WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER (WEEK #5)

SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:

BEST BETS
**** New England over *Buffalo by 22
*** San Francisco over St. Louis by 11

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
New Orleans over *Arizona by 14
*Jacksonville over Indianapolis by 7

SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:

BEST BETS
**** MISSOURI* over COLORADO by 25
*** N.C. STATE* over WAKE FOREST by 24

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
Iowa* over Michigan State by 18
Alabama* over South Carolina by 14
Toledo* over Ball State by 25
U.T.E.P.* over New Mexico State by 13
============================================
Analysis of Best Bet Selections

****BEST BET
New England over *Buffalo by 22

The Patriots won the Super Bowl last year and are better this season. They have outscored their two opponents by 14 points. The Patriots have had great coaching with Bill Belichick, heady quarterback play from Tom Brady and outstanding team defense. Now they add something new – a solid ground game courtesy of Corey Dillon. Thanks to Dillon the Patriots now have a solid ground game to go with Brady’s precision aerial attack. Dillon has rushed for 244 yards in two games, while averaging 5.2 yards a carry. The Bills, on the other hand, are 0-2 for only the second time since 1998. Their defense remains respectable but oh that offense. There aren’t many teams QB Drew Bledsoe could start for anymore. Yes, he’s become that bad. The Bills are susceptible to blitzes with a weak offensive line and Bledsoe’s lack of mobility. This has been an outgoing problem and is a major reason why the Bills have won only four of their past 16 games, averaging just 12.1 points during this span. The Bills have managed a pathetic 18 touchdowns their past 16 games. In large part because of this the Bills have gone under the total in 25 of their last 27, and in their last 11 home games. The last 10 in this series have also gone below the total. As home ‘dogs, the Bills are 3-8-1 ATS the last three years. Don’t look for the Patriots to give them any sympathy, not while they’re chasing the consecutive win record and remembering how the Bills embarrassed them, 31-0, during opening week last year at Buffalo. No coach is more dangerous with two weeks to prepare than Belichick. His job won’t be too hard this week. NEW ENGLAND 31-9.

***BEST BET
*San Francisco over St. Louis by 11

The 49ers suffered their first shutout since 1977 in a humiliating loss to the Seahawks last week. Now here’s their chance for redemption, playing against a hated rival at home on Sunday night. Set aside the defeat to Seattle for a second and realize the 49ers could very well be 2-1. They lost their first two games to Atlanta and New Orleans by a combined five points. A controversial offensive pass interference call on a successful screen pass may have stolen a win from them against the Saints. At 0-3, this is the 49ers’ season right here. Yes, the 49ers are young and mistake-prone. But they also usually play hard. Dennis Erickson is doing an excellent coaching job, considering what he has to work with, and the team is united in its support of QB Ken Dorsey. He should be more comfortable getting his first start at home. Kevan Barlow provides San Francisco with a running threat against a soft Rams rush defense that last week surrendered 106 rushing yards to Saints backup runner Aaron Stecker. The Rams’ defense misses Lovie Smith, their former coordinator. The Rams have yet to force a turnover. While the Rams have a high-octane offense featuring Torry Holt, Marshall Faulk and Isaac Bruce, their offensive line isn’t the high caliber of past seasons. Switching surfaces also is a problem for the Rams. This is their first grass game of the season. They are 6-14 ATS on grass, just 2-9 ATS as a road favorite. Conditions could turn out to be cold and windy considering this is a night game in San Francisco. The 49ers have covered their past three home games against the Rams. SAN FRANCISCO 28-17.

****BEST BET
MISSOURI* over COLORADO by 25

A 3-0 opening by these Buffaloes is creating one of the great college football stories of this young season by the national media, with the apparent illusion that Gary Barnett and his team have managed to put their off-field troubles of this past year behind them. But that may not even be close to the truth, and they could be exposed in a major way here. That 3-0 opening has not been a result of great play, but rather fortunate bounces. They were out-gained by a massive 16 first downs and 352 yards in those opening wins over Colorado State and Washington State, and we can not be impressed at all with a defense that allowed over 500 yards at home to a North Texas team that was playing without Patrick Cobbs (and was subsequently crushed by Baylor). Simply put this is an average team, and in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. Here they face a hungry Missouri team primed for revenge after a physical domination (447-276 total offense) on the road could not get transmitted to the scoreboard in a 21-16 defeat, a result of an 0-4 turnover ratio. And revenge is best when the leader feels it the most, which Brad Smith certainly will in this case. Smith managed 278 passing yards and 102 on the ground against the Buffalo defense but was responsible for all four of those turnovers. He sets the tone here by dominating a defense that is allowing 452 yards per game, despite playing three offenses that have really struggled this season, and this time the production on the field shows on the scoreboard. MISSOURI 42-17.

***BEST BET
N.C. STATE* over WAKE FOREST by 24

The less we say about the final four minutes of our loss on Boston College against these Deacons the better. Except, of course, that having Wake Forest win a game like that really does help our value for this one. The Wolfpack fell 38-24 on the road to the Deacons despite controlling the flow (total offense was 511-375 in their favor), but they turned the ball over twice. Jim Grobe’s team did not make a mistake. It is going to be a different story for the Wake Forest offense this time. Now a veteran N. C. State unit that may be as good as any in the land has the experience to not be fooled at all by the Deacon misdirection plays. And even on the occasions in which they are fooled the speed is there to make up for it. The past two weeks they have held Ohio State and Virginia Tech to a combined total of just 24 first downs and 100 yards rushing, and they can control the line of scrimmage here for the full 60 minutes. That forces Wake to go to the air more often than the usual comfort zone, and also exposes depth problems in the trenches. Meanwhile T.A. McLendon shows that he is back to 100% with some strong efforts against tough defensive fronts (187 yards the past two weeks), and now gets a chance to step way down in class. That means for once the pressure is off of Jay Davis and Marcus Stone, who both have a wealth of talent but neither had the experience to make more happen against Class A defenses. This week they have the wind at their back, however, and it sets up a revenge rout in style. N.C. STATE 37-13.

[who2beton]

Power Sweep

4* Excellent
3* Very Good
2* Good

College
4* Texas A&M
3* ND
3* UNLV
2* LSU
2* Mizzo
2* BYU

NFL
4* Jax
3* NE
2* GB
2* Pitt

NCAA dog of the Week
Iowa St. +18

Power Rating Play of the week
New Orleans

NFL over/unders
3* NE under 35'
3* SD over 42
3* TB under 38
2* GB over 42
2* NO over 40'

College Computer Corner Picks
Houston
LSU
BYU
Texas A& M

NFL Angle Play
(4) NE

NFL System Selection
If both teams are off a bye, go against a home team that lost its last game vs a visitor that one its last game.
'92-'03 14-5 74%
Play on New England

[Easy]

Anybody got any more newsletters to post?

[lawman1]

Goldsheet Confidential Kick-off

Has anyone purchased the Goldsheet Confidential Kick-off for this week? Thanks in advance.

-LM1

[sumwon]

SG

I think you might have missed a 3* and a 2* in PowerSweep College selections. There's always two 3's and three 2's.
Thanks for posting them.

[who2beton]

Thanks, I did miss the ND + BYU picks. I've added them to the slate.

[who2beton]

Nelly's Green Sheet

SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY ON: Any NFL home team in game 4 that is 3-0
straight up on the season, winning against the spread in at
least the previous two games.
PLAY ON: JACKSONVILLE
23-8 ATS since 1985 74%

OVER / UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
NEW ENGLAND/BUFFALO UNDER
The Over/Under in this division rivalry is 14/29 since 1980
including both meetings in each of the last five seasons
going under. The Bills have scored just 20 points in two
games, and the defenses have combined to allow just 62
points in four efforts. Another low-scoring game here.

STAT OF THE WEEK
Wisconsin is 2-15 as a double-digit favorite

NCAA

IOWA (-7½) over Michigan State
Rating: 5
The Spartans battled back for a comeback win at Indiana last week
but MSU has struggled this season, including eleven turnovers in
four games. The Hawkeyes have covered in eleven of the last
twelve games as home favorites and will get back on track after
back-to-back setbacks vs. tough road foes. Iowa has covered in
eight of the last nine off consecutive S/U losses. MSU has ran the
ball effectively this season but should find a hungry Iowa team that
remembers last year's loss in East Lansing well. IOWA BY 20


OKLAHOMA (-27½) over Texas Tech Rating: 4
Don't be fooled by the 70 point effort against TCU, this is not the
same TT team of the past few years. The Raiders face an
impossible test here playing their fourth road game in five games
to start the season. The Sooners have not missed a step from the
early season success of '03 and find a laughable defense at their
disposal. Oklahoma put up 60 and 56 against stronger TT teams in
the past two seasons. We wouldn't be shocked to see another 70
point total in the Raiders box score. OKLAHOMA BY 40


ILLINOIS (+17) over Wisconsin
Rating: 4
The Badgers defense has transformed from one of the most
porous in the Big Ten to one of the toughest in the country thus far
this season. This is a tough spot for Wisconsin off a big win last
week. The Badgers offense has seriously struggled this season but
the defense has made it easy to overlook. Wisconsin has not
scored over 18 points in the last three games. Illinois appears
greatly improved with a great effort vs. Purdue last week. The
Fighting Illini rushing offense will present the toughest test thus far
this season for the Badger defense. WISCONSIN BY 6


TEXAS A&M (-3) over Kansas State Rating: 3
This is not the same K-State team. Fresno exposed them early
and the Wildcats have struggled against their familiar softies at
home as well. RB Sproles had big numbers in the last game but
the A&M defense has had two weeks to ready for this game. This
is the true test for the Aggies defense after a dominant
performance against Clemson. The K-State defense is no where
near old form and will be scored upon. We expect another step
forward for A&M in a huge game for the program. A&M BY 10


RUTGERS (+6) over Syracuse Rating: 2
The Orange earned a cover last week despite being outgained
nearly 2 to 1 in a lopsided loss. Rutgers defeated Kent and have
two wins on the year despite a I-AA loss to New Hampshire. The
Rutgers rush defense has been excellent this season but the
numbers may reflect the opponents more than Rutgers efforts.
Syracuse presents a tough challenge for the Knights. Rutgers
needs this win if they hope to continue their bowl quest. The
offense has been erratic but effective and will be able to score in
this game. Syracuse is excellent in home openers but earning
revenge will be tough for this Orange team. RUTGERS BY 1


AUBURN (+2½) over Tennessee
Rating: 1
Both teams have shown the ability to win a close game and will
avoid the letdown with weak opponents last week. Tennessee had
big numbers on the ground last week but not have similar success
against Auburn's defense. Both teams are undefeated and this
could figure to be a huge game in the long run of the SEC
standings. We'll side with the QB experience and the superior
defense to get the road win. AUBURN BY 6

OREGON (-3) over Arizona State
Rating: 1
ASU had great fortune last week to secure another win and find
themselves in the rankings. Oregon was allowed a much needed
confidence builder vs. Idaho. The Ducks were pounded by the Sun
Devils last season but will be much tougher at home. The Sun
Devils are already +10 in turnovers through four games and
although Walter has been impressive the Pac-10 road has not
been kind to him in the past. Oregon is a phenomenal 15-2 ATS in
their conference opener since '87. OREGON BY 13

NFL

CAROLINA (-3½) over Atlanta Rating: 4
The Falcons are still undefeated after an ugly win over Arizona.
Atlanta had four turnovers but surrendered just a field goal
despite not scoring a touchdown themselves. The Panthers had
an early bye but still are banged up. Look for Carolina to expose
a Falcons team that has been fortunate in their wins. Carolina's
struggles in week one were atypical for a well-coached team that
will take down the unbeaten birds. PANTHERS BY 10


PITTSBURGH (-4½) over Cincinnati Rating: 3
Big Ben passed in his first test as the Steelers broke through
late to steal a win in Miami through the storm. Pittsburgh got
several turnovers in their favor and held the struggling Miami
offense in check. The Bengals suffered a discouraging loss in
Baltimore allowing big yardage on the ground. QB Palmer
through for over 300 yards but had three picks and hit less than
50% of his passes. The Steelers have some momentum and
another win should come at home. STEELERS BY 10


KANSAS CITY (+4½) over Baltimore Rating: 2
The Chiefs controlled most of the game last week but gave up
big plays late to find a way to lose. KC has already matched their
loss total from last season, and do not get any breaks heading to
Baltimore this week. RB Lewis had a big game vs. Cincinnati
and should find success against a struggling Chiefs defense. QB
Boller continues to make costly mistakes for the Ravens with
two fumbles last week. The Ravens D gave up nearly 400 yards
to Cincy but were able to force field goals. With the Chiefs
against the wall we expect them to come up big. CHIEFS BY 7


GREEN BAY (-7) over New York Giants Rating: 1
The Packers defense allowed the Colts to move at will in
blowout loss. Green Bay has lost consecutive games and must
face the surging Giants. QB Warner appeared in old form as
the Giants won at home for the second week in a row. Although
the G-men are gaining confidence, the Packers can't afford to
fall any further behind and unless New York gets similar kind of
turnover help they have received the last two weeks, both
teams should leave at 2-2. PACKERS BY 9


NEW ORLEANS (-3½) over Arizona Rating: 1
The Saints earned an OT win over St. Louis and will look to
extend the trouble for Arizona this week. The Cardinals had
plenty of opportunities but five turnovers including several deep
in the red zone proved disastrous. Without RB McAllister, the
Saints got a 100 yard performance from RB Stecker and the
offense kept pace with the Rams passing game. The Cardinals
are playing hard but mistakes continue to pile up. The Saints
have a great offense and as long as they don't look ahead this
game is theirs to take. SAINTS BY 10

[Trotter]

I saw a bunch (maybe even all) of the newletters posted on the internet last night and this morning, i hope you aren't that naive to think you are the only one sending these out...

[spike]

True trotter, and I can verify some were before sg sent them out, or at least to me.

[lawman1]

Trotter

You previously stated that you came across numerous newsletters on the internet. Was the Goldsheet Confidential KickOff one of them? If so, would you happen to have the site? Thank you.

-LM1

[Sports Guru]

LOL ok guys im not even going to argue with you anymore. FYI not all of you received them at the same as you are in different groups. For example some people right now have the red sheet steam sheet, while others have different ones. Its just so sad i have to do it this way.

[Sports Guru]

I THINK SOMEBODY WAS LOOKING FOR THIS SHEET. ITS GOING TO GO ON A HUGE RUN SOON...IT DOES EVERY YEAR!

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
11* *VIRGINIA TECH over West Virginia
10* *LOUISVILLE over East Carolina
10* COLORADO over *Missouri
10* *GEORGIA TECH over Miami-Florida
10* *TAMPA BAY over Denver

Analysis of rated selections

11 *VIRGINIA TECH over West Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
*VIRGINIA TECH 30 - West Virginia 16

Revenge means something in this bitter rivalry, and Va. Tech looking to pay back West Va. for 2 straight series losses. Chance to derail Mountaineers’ dreams of an undefeated season (WV will likely be favored in the rest of its games) will have Hokies & their rabid fans in a lather. Believe oddsmaker has overreacted to Tech’s 17-16 home loss to N.C. State. After all, Wolfpack defense one of nation’s best, and Hokies missed potential game-winning FG as time expired. Mountie stop unit more pliable. And Tech attack has been boosted by recent addition of jr. TB Mike Imoh (suspended first 3 games; 74 YR last week). Hokie defense (only 116 ypg rushing) can stand up to WV’s breadand-butter ground game. Mounties barely survived their one tough test—19-16 over mistake-prone Maryland at Morgantown—in soft early-season slate that hasn’t fully prepared them for trip to Blacksburg.

10 *LOUISVILLE over East Carolina
Late Score Forecast:
*LOUISVILLE 49 - East Carolina 10

Louisville is a happening team. The Cardinals have ripped through Kentucky, Army and North Carolina by a combined 114-21 score, with the defense throwing two shutouts along the way. Louisville QB Stefan LeFors has picked up where he left off last season, when he led the Cardinals to the 5th best offensive showing in the country. This season LeFors is completing 72%, but the real surprise is the deep, effective running game, averaging 256 ypg rushing and 5.0 ypc. East Carolina’s new passing attack has allowed it to slip in for a couple of late ****** at home against “B” level competition. But going on the road & facing the combination of offensive and defensive might Louisville owns is going to be much more similar to the Pirates’ opener at West Virginia (allowed 56 points and couldn’t cover 29-pt. spread). East Carolina is in the same mold and roughly same ability level of Louisville’s first threevictims, therefore a similar result should ensue. Louisville homecoming crowd should minimize any possible lookahead to Miami-Fla.(up next for Cards).

10 COLORADO over *Missouri
Late Score Forecast:
COLORADO 26 - *Missouri 23

Trusty CKO sources can’t truly understand why upbeat, 3-0 Colorado is getting a full TD in this critical Big XII North battle. After all, rejuvenated Buffs have grown stronger & more unified as a result of the well-ublicized, off-season recruiting scandals. And CU has been a major nemesis for Mizzou, having won 5 straight in series, including unexpected 21-16 upset year ago. With Buffs accurate (62%), poised & fiercely-competitive 6-1 jr. QB Klatt (19 of 25 in ‘03 meeting!) finding solid rapport with a fast-emerging corps of young receivers, he should have plenty of success working play-action passes with punishing 6-0, 220 sr. TB Purify (354 YR, 5.5 ypc) commanding attention on every down. And jury still out somewhat on a non-dominating Tiger “D” (41% allowed on 3rd-down LY) getting first litmus test of year after facing lower-rung Sun Belt (Ark. St.) & MAC squads (Ball St.) and one-dimensional Troy State, which gained 172 YR without any major passing element. Mizzou’s QB Brad Smith has shown a tendency to force ball at times, resulting in 5 ints. so far this season. CU’s 6th-year mentor Barnett is a profitable 16-6 as an
underdog since taking over in Boulder.

10 *GEORGIA TECH over Miami-Florida
Late Score Forecast:
*GEORGIA TECH 16 - Miami-Florida 19

Sure, Miami defense is hellacious. It needs to be, as current Hurricane attack a pale imitation of high-octane editions led by Ken Dorsey a few years ago. Four of Miami’s 13 TDs in first 3 games have come from its defense & special teams. Offense is generating only 329 ypg. QB Brock Berlin (only 2 TDP) is still having trouble with his reads & accuracy. No go-to WR has emerged. OL (allowed 5 sacks vs. Houston last week) is not up to usual standards. And top RB Frank Gore has a sore knee. With extra week to prepare and get healthier, no reason Ga. Tech can’t giveCanes a 60-minute battle. Jacket defense tougher with return of all-ACC jr. DE Eric Henderson (conf.-best 11 sacks LY), who missed first 3 games with a leg injury. Tech offense will ****** away with its big OL & bruising TB P.J. Daniels (1771 YR last 1+ seasons). And precocious QB Reggie Ball has the mobility to elude hard-charging Miami DL. Canes will have to fight hard just to escape with SU win.

10 *TAMPA BAY over Denver
Late Score Forecast:
*TAMPA BAY 19 - Denver 12
(Sunday, October 3)

It’s now or never for 0-3 Tampa Bay this week, and we expect HC “Chucky” Gruden to elicit a top effort from the Bucs. Denver offense has shown it’s flawed of late, as an inability to run the ball is hurting the attack. The Broncos’ 21 carries for 37 yds. at home against San Diego last week was evidence. After a great opening game against permissive K.C. defense, Denver RB Quentin Griffin has carried 37 times for just 73 yds. in the last two. The T.B. defense has done its part, holding foes to 19 ppg and ranking 10th in total defense. Desperate T.B. got a couple ofpositive signs from defeat at Oakland last week. Buc QB Brad Johnson appeared to have straightened out some of his early-season ills, completing 22 of 36 passes for 309 yds. and two TDs, his first scoring throws of the season after tossing 26 last year. RB Mike Alstott averaged 5.4 ypc against the Raiders, and WR Bill Schroeder stepped up with 126 yds. receiving in that game. Do-or-die effort from Tampa should tip the scale facing a Denver team that’s just 2-5 vs. number last 7 away from home.

TOTALS: UNDER (39½) in Atlanta-Carolina game—Falcons “under” 10 of last 12 away; Atlanta passing game not scary, so Panthers can focus on containing Mike Vick...UNDER (35½) in Denver-Tampa Bay game—Bronco ground game fading; Bucs defense much better than it showed week ago in Oakland.

HONORABLE MENTION: WISCONSIN (-15½) vs. Illinois—Badgers, already so strong in the pits, found their “******” last week by moving 270-pound FB Bernstein to TB; defensively-soft Illini 2-13 last 15 vs. spread...ARKANSAS (+7½) at Florida—Razorback youngsters doing far better than expected so far; Gators (only 4-9 vs. spread at home last 13) also featuring lots of underclassmen...RUTGERS (+6) at Syracuse—Scarlet Knights (9-1-1 last 11 as dog) vulnerable to the pass, something the Orangemen do not do well...FLORIDA STATE (-29) vs.North Carolina—Soph Sexton expected to start at QB for FSU, but UNC’s overwrought defense unlikely to cope...PITTSBURGH (NFL) -4 vs. Cincinnati—Steelers, with Staley, run it much better TY; QB Roethlisberger has 3 TDP in his first two NFL appearances, all against the high-quality defenses of Baltimore & Miami!

[rmaciasl]

those anybody has the red sheet=


by the way tkas for posting this

[Holysmoke]

Originally posted by Trotter
I saw a bunch (maybe even all) of the newletters posted on the internet last night and this morning, i hope you aren't that naive to think you are the only one sending these out...

where did u see these newsletters?