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The Buying 1/2 point Bible for NFL

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  • #16
    Don't be goofy

    There is no extra cost to buy off or on key numbers except for 3.

    The 2 point conversion has created MORE 3 point games, not less. Now when you're down by 11, you can cut it to 3.

    It amazes me how little football some people really watch. This is beyond dispute. ALWAYS buy on 3, 7, 10.

    Somebody also metioned that there's an extra savings in buying on to a number than there is buying off of a number. Uhhhh, not really. I mean, it's so slight that you can't possibly say that's your argument against doing it, can you?True, you're turning a loss into a push. But you're also truning pushes into wins. Either way, that's a savings of $110 to a dollar bettor for pushes and $100 for wins. Come on, guys.

    +6.5 -- bet 110/100 --- lose by final of 23-16 --- lose $110
    +7 (-120) -- bet 110/100 -- same score -- Push

    +7 -- bet 110/100 -- lose by same score -- push
    +7.5 -- Bet 120/100 -- win $100

    Either way, you're waaaayyyyyy ahead by buying on key numbers.
    Please don't question my record or I will leave!!!!

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    • #17
      Re: FRANK

      Originally posted by BiloxiUMreb
      in your first post on this thread, could you provide me with one other piece of data. In the 534 games, what is the record (w/l/58) without buiying the half. Obvioulsy, with buying the half it will be (w+58 / l / 0). I'm not questioning your conclusion, I simply want to look not at the raw win or loss, but at the delta in the net win or loss. I coul solve for it using sim equations but you could really save me some time here.

      What I'm getting at is the true "value" of buying off is not the $3,680 profit on the chalk side, but the delta between $3,680 and the net win or loss WITHOUT buying the hook. I've run all the numbers on the last six years NFL history, but my database doesn't go back as far as yours apparently.

      If you could post this info, I'd be grateful....thx
      The complete record since 1989 250-226-58

      I adjusted the $3680 down to $1420 because the cost of buying off 3 is an additional 20 cents not 10 cents.

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      • #18
        Bump

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        • #19
          Bump!
          What about in NCAA Football?
          If the spread is +4.5, as in NC State tonight, it's not worth buying to +5 right???
          J
          I don't play with real money only Fazools.

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          • #20
            Thanks for the info Frank, I've always used this general formally, but just saw this now.

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