The Buying 1/2 point Bible for NFL

[frankb03]

Print this thread and keep it handy. My NFL data dates back to 1989 with over 3600 games. In those games there have been 103 pushes or 2.9%.

ALWAYS
Favorites
Buy 3 point favorites down to -2 1/2

Buy 3 1/2 favorites down to -3

Buy 7 point favorites down to -6 1/2

Buy 7 1/2 favorites down to -7

Buy 10 point favorites down to -9 1/2

Dogs
Buy 3 point dogs to +3 1/2

Buy 5 1/2 point dogs to +6

Buy 6 1/2 point dogs to +7

Buy 7 point dogs to +7 1/2

Buy 9 1/2 point dogs to +10

Buy 10 point dogs to +10 1/2

All the buys above have been a positive investment the past 15+ seasons.

NEVER buy the 1/2 point off any other line. They are ALL losing investments. Some significant losers. Buying off all lines higher than 11 including 14 are a losing proposition.

Some interesting side notes from my analysis.

If one played EVERY 3 point favorite and bought the 1/2 point down to -2 1/2 it would have yielded a $1420 profit based on $100 per play in 534 games. The player would win 58 games that otherwise would have been a push. An astounding 10.9% games.

Playing all games at -7 and buying the game down to -6 1/2 has also yielded a profit +740 in 278 games.

On the DOG side buying all 2 1/2 point dogs to +3 has returned $440 in 209 games.

Buying 3 point dogs to +3 1/2 has saved the bettors $3300 in loses. However, if one played and bought every game off +3 it produced an overall loss of -$1600.

If one played every dog at +6 1/2 it would have returned a profit of $2190. However, if you bought the 1/2 point on all those games the return increases to +$2440.

Playing all dogs at +3 1/2, 4 1/2, 5, 7 1/2, 8 and 10 1/2 return a profit. Buying the 1/2 point off these numbers decreases the profits or creates an overall loss.

This analysis only pertains to NFL.

After changing the cost of buying some of the lines buy a 2 1/2 point dog to +3 is a LOSING investment.

[neyland]

One thing you're forgetting is that in looking at stats that go back to 1989 you're covering a bunch of time in which there was no 2 point conversion...which has caused more irregular scores...less hitting of key #'s...but the last 6 yr numbers posted in an earlier thread clearly show that buying on/off 3, 7, 10...IS profitable...while buying on/off other numbers, especially 6, but also 11, 13, 14...is very UNprofitable.

I don't know, but I would guess that all buying of points in college would be unprofitable, but that's just my best guess without seeing the hard #'s to back it up.

[frankb03]

neyland

The 2 point conversion in the NFL went into effect for the 1994 season. My data reflects 10+ years with it in place. I highly doubt it'll drastically change the results.

Later today I will retest starting from the 1994 season.

[smooth53_98]

Thanks a lot for sharing this with us frank!

-smooth

[Dino]

Frank,

What do you think about 10.5 point favorites and 9.5 point dogs?

[timster]

What everyone seems to be forgetting in their analysis is how much you are paying for the extra half point on the key numbers. Also it is always more profitable to buy onto a key number than off of because of the 10 cent juice you are saving with a push.
As Dino mentioned if you are going to buy on the numbers you listed you should definitely buy at -10.5 & +9.5.
5 years ago it was still possible to buy on 3 and 7 for only 10 cents. Now the going price is 25 cents for 3 and 15 cents for 7 which is at best break even. If the bookie is offering something it is always over the long haul in the bookies advantage, otherwise they wouldn't offer it.
so i would say
on 3 - 20 cents or less
on 7 - 15 cents or less
on 10 - 10 cents or less

[neyland]

timster...that squares with the numbers for the last 6 years posted y'day...key numbers like 4,6,11,13, and 14 were very unprofitable in terms of buying points...

[frankb03]

timster raised a good point. For my analysis I used an additional 10 cents as the cost. Buying off 3 at many books now cost 20 cents.

Dino, as I stated buying 1/2 points off any lines other than the lines listed above are losing investments.

FYI buying the 1/2 point off a 10 1/2 point favorites is the WORST investment of all lines.

Buying the 1/2 point on 9 1/2 point dogs is also a losing proposition. Playing all 9 1/2 point dogs would have returned a small profit of $10. Buying the 1/2 point turns that profit to a loss.

[frankb03]

Originally posted by timster
If the bookie is offering something it is always over the long haul in the bookies advantage, otherwise they wouldn't offer it.

I agree with that statement 100%

I think ALL players need to get that point driven home. I've been barking that for years.

[frankb03]

Originally posted by timster
What everyone seems to be forgetting in their analysis is how much you are paying for the extra half point on the key numbers. Also it is always more profitable to buy onto a key number than off of because of the 10 cent juice you are saving with a push.
As Dino mentioned if you are going to buy on the numbers you listed you should definitely buy at -10.5 & +9.5.
5 years ago it was still possible to buy on 3 and 7 for only 10 cents. Now the going price is 25 cents for 3 and 15 cents for 7 which is at best break even. If the bookie is offering something it is always over the long haul in the bookies advantage, otherwise they wouldn't offer it.
so i would say
on 3 - 20 cents or less
on 7 - 15 cents or less
on 10 - 10 cents or less

First, I did factor in the additional cost to buy 1/2 point. My initial analysis I used an addition 10 cents for the cost.

Second, at my offshore they charge 20 cents to buy off 2 1/2 and 3. For all other lines they charge 10 cents even 7 and 10.

I updated my first post in this thread to reflect the 20 cent cost on applicable lines.

[frankb03]

Originally posted by neyland
One thing you're forgetting is that in looking at stats that go back to 1989 you're covering a bunch of time in which there was no 2 point conversion...which has caused more irregular scores...less hitting of key #'s...but the last 6 yr numbers posted in an earlier thread clearly show that buying on/off 3, 7, 10...IS profitable...while buying on/off other numbers, especially 6, but also 11, 13, 14...is very UNprofitable.

I analyzed only the years since the 2 point conversion came into play. As I suspected there was only one change. Buying 9 1/2 point dogs to +10 has been a very slight profitable investment during this period. I don't believe it's attributed to the rule change.

[drugstuntman]

thanks frank!

[mikeloblob]

Thanks for the info....by the way, we all really miss your Under plays for MLB.

[frankb03]

Originally posted by mikeloblob
Thanks for the info....by the way, we all really miss your Under plays for MLB.

Thanks Mike. I appreciate it.

After getting hammered by hurricane after hurricane I haven't had the time to cap the games effectively.

[BiloxiUMreb]

FRANK

in your first post on this thread, could you provide me with one other piece of data. In the 534 games, what is the record (w/l/58) without buiying the half. Obvioulsy, with buying the half it will be (w+58 / l / 0). I'm not questioning your conclusion, I simply want to look not at the raw win or loss, but at the delta in the net win or loss. I coul solve for it using sim equations but you could really save me some time here.

What I'm getting at is the true "value" of buying off is not the $3,680 profit on the chalk side, but the delta between $3,680 and the net win or loss WITHOUT buying the hook. I've run all the numbers on the last six years NFL history, but my database doesn't go back as far as yours apparently.

If you could post this info, I'd be grateful....thx