Football Newsletters (week #4)

[jjoneill]

Who2beton

Yoooooooooo i get your emails. GREAT!! THANX for power sweep and the rest. it all helps.

[frankb03]

Killersport NFL Report

Side Play of the Week!!

5* GREEN BAY +6’ over Indianapolis - The Colts got a “mustwin”
last week in Tennessee. However, the Packers clearly were
looking past the Bears and were flat as a tortilla last week in Green
Bay. The Packers should have their game faces on here as they are
6-0 ATS since week 10 of the 2000 season the week after a loss in
which they outgained their opponent. In addition, the Packers
are getting a team off a double digit win and this inspires them.
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS when their opponent is off a double digit
ATS win, covering by an average of more than two touchdowns
per game. The Colts are in a flat spot as they are between two
tough divisional opponents. Indianapolis is 0-10-1 ATS on Sunday
as a favorite over a non-divisional opponent when they visit a
divisional opponent next week. Last season, this trend was active
twice and the Colts lost both straight up as a significant home
favorite (see the Floor Seat Query on the opposite page for more
on this trend). Green Bay, unlike Indianapolis, plays their best
outside their division going 6-0 ATS vs non-divisional opponents
(including 1-0 ATS this season). Green Bay hasn’t been given this
many points by the linesmakers in over three seasons. The Colts’
defense is suspect and Favre should have success moving the ball
and controlling the clock. A moneyline play wouldn’t be a bad
idea here.

FORECAST: Green Bay 24 INDIANAPOLIS 20

Another Five Star Side Selection

5* TENNESSEE -6 over Jacksonville - The Titans must take
the Jaguars seriously as Jacksonville is 2-0 and ahead of them in
the divisional standings. A loss here by Tennessee would but them
2+ games behind the Jaguars after three games. Jacksonville has a
good defense but Tennessee’s is even better and they’ll be eager to
demonstrate that fact. The Jaguars have to be completely tapped
out here after going all-out to get emotional wins in each of the
first two weeks of the season. In Jacksonville’s first two games
they were heavy favorites to lose the game with seconds remaining.
In their opener, they got a TD with 0:00 on the clock and
last week a Denver fumble while preparing to kick a field goal
preserved their victory. Trend-wise we note that the Jaguars are
1-11-1 ATS their last 13 on the road after a home win. In their
only cover they lost to the Titans by a score of 3-10 getting 9
points. Also, the Jaguars are 0-9 ATS after a game in which they
committed no turnovers as long as the game is expected to be
relatively low scoring (OU line <42). As for the Titans, they are
8-1 ATS after a game in which they lost by 14+ points and 12-2
ATS after a loss in which they attempted at least ten more passes
than their Y-T-D average. Lay the points as Tennessee opens a
can of whup-ass and the Jaguars have nothing left to respond.

FORECAST: TENNESSEE 31 Jacksonville 3

OU Play of the Week!!

4* Arizona at Atlanta UNDER 42’ - Here we have an interesting
OU system working. It states that the league is 0-10 OU in
game 3 when they won their opener by 1-3 points and then
won game two by double digits as long as the OU line is greater
than 38 points. The Falcons qualify here as they beat the 49ers
by 2 points in game one and they beat the Rams by 17 points in
game 2. In addition, the Cardinals tend to go under against
teams that have run the ball a lot. Arizona is 2-15 OU over the
past four seasons vs a team that has rushed the ball an average of
30+ times per game Year-to-Date. Also, the Cardinals are 0-6
OU when they get a team off a double-digit win. As for the
Falcons, they have played conservatively vs a team that lacks a
vertical passing game as they are 1-10 OU since week 11 of the
2000 season when facing a team that has an average of 5.5 or
fewer yards per pass play season-to-date. As long as the Cardinals
don’t score plentiful points in “garbage” time, this one should
stay under the total.

FORECAST: ATLANTA 20 Arizona 13 UNDER

Other OU Selection

3* Houston at Kansas City OVER 48’ - The Chiefs off-season
focus on defense has not worked. They are 0-2 and have to get
back to simply outscoring their opponents. We have history backing
us up as the Chiefs are 7-1 OU when they have allowed at
least 24 points in each of the past two weeks. We look for Kansas
City to open up an early lead here starting with a TD on their
opening drive. This will put the Texans in “chase” mode where
they will be throwing all the time in an attempt to get back in the
game. This will result in a “barn-burner” will a lot of points on
the scoreboard when the final gun sounds. Trend-wise, we’ll note
that the Chiefs are 7-0 OU going over by an average of 9.9 ppg as
a home favorite when they play on the road next week. In addition,
Kansas City is 20-4 OU when they get a team that has thrown
an average of at least 1.25 interceptions per game year-to-date.
The Chiefs are 8-0 OU their last eight in this situation. In their
last five in this situation (when they get a team that has thrown
an average of at least 1.25 interceptions per game year-to-date),
the Chiefs have scored 49, 49, 40, 41 and 45 points respectively!!
That’s right. In their last five in this situation the Chiefs have
scored at least 40 points. Go OVER!

FORECAST: Kansas City 45 Houston 31 OVER

[TiggerV]

SportsGuru

Been lurking here a long time and your newsletters have been a big help to me.

Check your email, I sent you something this morning looking for some info.

[who2beton]

Sports Reporter

SUPER BEST BET
*STANFORD over USC by 2
Home dog has revenge, hates #1 USC's guts, hasn't left campus since fall practice began, is off a bye, fall classes have yet to begin, their offensive line is in ten times better shape than it was for last season's game, and the starting QB is a year older and better. USC waltzes in without major playmakers like WR Mike Williams, who caught 3 TD passes in last season's 44-21 win, and whose absence this season has prompted head coach Pete Carroll to put in more pass plays for the running backs. They do it without DE Kenechi Udeze pressing an early advantage and wreaking havoc
like the three sacks and two forced fumbles he had in last year's game that was USC's sixth, but only the fourth for a Stanford side that was out of sync from day one and already had sat through two bye weeks. USC's average starting first-half field position, then, was their own 48-yard-line,
where it is easy to keep a visitor down and gasping for air. Now you have a ballgame, with Stanford getting the Trojans to play from much father back in USC territory, their quick defense mixing blitz and contain modes against an offense scaled back from last season's. Two-TD road favorites lose
outright seven times per season in college football and have only lost once so far this year.The rumbling earth is ready to open up and swallow one. Secure the goalposts. Stanford, 23-21

BEST BET
*VIRGINIA over SYRACUSE by 33
It is clear that Al Groh and company are out for as many impressive so-what wins in the bank to cushion the possible future blows they absorb in the ACC. Virginia is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, and would seem to have the ability to put pedal to metal against this opponent. The Orange posted a 19-7 home upset in last week against Cincinnati but note the Cuse has covered just six of its last 15 road games and will play a stilluntested
quarterback here, whether it be righty Joe Fields or lefty Perry Patterson.
That's bad news against this veteran and crusty Cav defense. In case you're keeping track, Virginia tailback Wali Lundy has rushed for three touchdowns in each of his
three games this year and you can expect he'll get the hat trick again here while Virginia's ground game batters a smallish Syracuse defense. The stars are aligned for Groh's guys they've covered six in a row dating back to last season and this is KO special. Virginia, 47-14

BEST BET
*NEW MEXICO STATE over NEW MEXICO by 7
Off three power-conference revenge games, looking ahead to the Mountain West opener home vs. Utah, this aint lookin like a spot to lay points with a New Mexico program that is more trustworthy as an underdog anyway, with their penchant for letting RB
Dontrell Moore move the chains and waiting for the defense to get turnovers, a formula that barely worked for them vs. this opponent last season but not for the chalk-players.
Not buyin into that for a road re-hook. In fact, let's go the other way and look for the relentless running attack of the home side to wear down the small New Mexico defensive front seven, which was not susceptible to being manhandled at the point of attack
by either of their first two opponents in games that were close, and then the loss, cover, and published win for readers at shaky Oregon State in which less-than-ordinary New Mexico QB Kole McCamey got hurt. This could force New Mexico to go with a back-up,
on the road, who is said to be less than less-than-ordinary. NEW MEXICO STATE, 19-12.

BEST BET
*LOUISIANA-MONROE over ARKANSAS STATE by 16
When the Monrovians went into Arkansas State last season, it was a third road game in four weeks, a game for the sixth straight week in ex-Navy head coach CharlieWeatherbee's first season at the helm. The poor SOB's floundering offense was a turnover
waiting to happen. Now it's only Game Number 3, which followed an earnest off-season of conditioning improvements to rival Bill Murray's company in the movie Stripes. The offense is now led by Todd Berry, ex-Army head coach. Gotta love the new military influence rubbing
off on the players. After covering in a loss at Auburn in Week 1, Weatherbee was impressed enough to comment: When you come out of a game healthy against a team as physical as Auburn, that really says something about the shape you are in. Despite last
season's bad lead-in to the match-up, the Monrovians launched four scoring drives of 10 or more plays and 58 or more yards, vs. just one such drive by Arkansas State, which punted
on five of its six first-half series. But since ULM was such a sorry side, they let ASU back into the game with a second-half kickoff-return TD, immediately followed by tossing an INT
on their own 5-yard-line, and later it was like ahh what the heck, just return this fumble and win the game, we're really tired. Different mentality now. LOUISIANA-MONROE, 33-17

BEST BET
*SAN DIEGO STATE over NEVADA by 24
Can't help but think that this contest might not be game planned by the Nevada with the same intensity as next week's quadruple-revenge match vs.state rival UNLV, but psychology is just a part of liking the Aztecs. SDS has a solid defense and a tough QB,
two essential elements to success and they've acquitted themselves nicely against non-conference foes (5-3 ATS) since Tom Craft became the coach two plus years ago. And, that defense, which was 8th in total yards and 31st in the country vs. the run last
year, is still tough to move the ball against as Michigan will attest (3.1 YPC last week. The Pack is playing its first legit opponent and has not displayed much of an offense especially in its lone road game as its final two scores came at garbage time in a 21-38 loss at Louisiana Tech. A make-up to readers after last week's play against the
Aztecs lost? Hope so! San Diego State, 31-7

RECOMMENDED
*BALL STATE over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 6
Perhaps Western Michigan was saving itself for Illinois when it was pounded by Virginia Tech two weeks ago. But that plan only worked out for the Broncos financial backers, as a late TD drive engineered by a backup QB gave Illinois the SU win and WMU the cover. So now this subpar team must go on the road against another team that may have been playing possum during the nonconference season. Cardinals had 73 runs and only 35 passes in blowout losses at Purdue and Missouri, but were highly competitive at home against Boston College. Expect them to show much more of their playbook here in MAC opener against a team they are not overmatched against.
Ball State, 27-21

RECOMMENDED
*BAYLOR over NORTH TEXAS by 6
Home team, off bye, with major revenge. The recipe for straight-up victory by an underdog has been placed on the stove, with North Texas still out of its comfort zone as a nonconference road team. North Texas began your handicapping season beautifully in the first Midweek Update by losing 65-0 at Midweek Update Best Bet Texas, followed up on the poor point-spread label that was slapped on them in Sports Reporter Zone Blitz by
losing outright to Florida Atlantic as home chalk, and now most recently is a winning Midweek Update Super Best Bet against at Colorado. You can't be guilty of piling on when you've been all over it from the git-go. Now, the 2004 down North Texas team doesn't know which end is up as they look ahead to the first defense of an 18-game Sun
Belt Conference winning streak on their home field next week. BAYLOR, 20-14

RECOMMENDED
*INDIANA over MICHIGAN STATE by 6
The toughest thing about losing a senior QB, as Michigan State did with Jeff Smoker, is that things you took for granted suddenly become a problem. In its two losses, Michigan State is minus-5 in turnovers and has surrendered two touchdowns on offense. Stephen Reaves was not the answer against Notre Dame, throwing three picks. He was replaced by Drew Stanton, but the turnover nightmares continued as a fumble at the goal line by RB Jehuu Caulcrick short-circuited another drive. Indiana QB Matt LoVecchio is anything but flashy, but he has thrown only two INTs in three games. Actually, Hoosiers were very
opportunistic in signature win over Oregon, taking advantage of seven Duck turnovers. It doesn't figure to be that lopsided here, but can't trust a Michigan State team that has yet to learn the meaning of ball security. Indiana, 23-17

RECOMMENDED
*WAKE FOREST over BOSTON COLLEGE by 9
Yes, Boston College is undefeated, but the Eagles offense is still rather spotty. Consider that they rushed for only 141 yards versus Connecticut despite leading from the first minute of
the game, and allowed the Huskies to out-clock them. And also keep in mind BC managed only 19 points against a Ball State team that has allowed 59 to Purdue and 48 to Missouri. WF QB Cory Randolph led a 75-yard, game-winning drive in the final three minutes against
these guys last year, so he shouldn't be lacking confidence in crunch time. Wake also got a boost in walkover against I-AA North Carolina A&T from redshirt freshman RB Micah Andrews, who was reinstated after a two-game disciplinary suspension and topped the
100-yard mark on the ground. It helps to have as many fresh bodies as possible when you rely on smash-mouth tactics the way Jim Grobe's Demon Deacons do. Wake Forest, 32-23


NFL

BEST BET
*SEATTLE over SAN FRANCISCO by 21
The 49ers are a double-avenging road dog that we really have no interest in despite the 2-0 ATS record to go with their two straight-up losses. If San Francisco is destined to continue losing, then odds are against them covering the number in the losses. There is 2-0
ATS, and then there is 5.5 points worth of cover in the two ATS wins. Less than a TD. Why be afraid? The Seahawks overcame a 7-1 penalty ratio against them, converted only one of 14 third downs, yet still won and covered on the road at Tampa Bay last Sunday. When you can win while not playing your best, you should be respected in the near future. The Seattle defense was good enough to get a veteran QB (Brad Johnson) benched, so you
have to give them the benefit of the doubt going against either of San Francisco's young guns Dorsey or Rattay. As Hasselbeck matures, the Seahawks do not beat themselves
with turnovers. The 49ers were -2 in turnovers last week at New Orleans, and figure to be on the wrong end of that category after 60 minutes of this one. Last season's first meeting
was a coming of age game for Hasselback, and in the second meeting he took himself up another notch by overcoming a 14-0 deficit on the road in a game Seattle needed to make the playoffs. San Francisco's overall talent is not what it was then. SEATTLE, 35-14

BEST BET
*INDIANAPOLIS over GREEN BAY by 18
Indianapolis will be pumped up for its first home game of the season, and this will be a difficult non-conference road sandwich situation for Green Bay after back-to-back headline match-ups to start the season; the Monday night win at Carolina and the home loss against division- rival Chicago. This is also a dome game for the Packers, which is never good news for Brett Favre who is 5-13 SU, 4-14 ATS in domes dating back to the 1997 season and says that he doesn't pay any attention to that stuff. Of course not. He's Superman in his own mind. Green Bay looked awfully bad in the home loss to the Bears
last week in a game where they turned the ball over three times (2 INTs, 1 fumble), and lost to a team that hadn't beaten them since 2000. Even more of a concern for the Packers was their inability to generate any passing game or mount any comeback once
they fell behind. That probably won't bode well for their chances this week against the potent Colts offense that will probably score early and often against the Pack's questionable
defense, about whom even KC head coach Dick Vermeil commented about how their blitzing would eventually self-destruct. Look for Peyton Manning to have a field day against a Green Bay pass defense that ranked 23rd in the league in 2003 and couldn't
stop Rex Grossman and the Bears when it counted last week. DT Grady Jackson is still out for Green Bay, and his absence sparked the MIDWEEK UPDATE Best Bet against the
overrated Cheeseheads last week. INDIANAPOLIS, 35-17

BEST BET
*CINCINNATI over BALTIMORE by 14
The current M.O. is that if you keep sending the Ravens our way, we'll keep sending them right back out with a reject stamp and a pick on the other side. Earth to forecasters: The NFL wants offense to succeed. It also is desperately desperate for young, talented quarterbacks do things that make them more promotable, so that the league is not known for the over-stuffed sack of soft-armed hacks that have caused offensive
coordinators to rein it in for fear of drowning in a tide of defensive TDs against them. What the NFL does not necessarily want is for its single-game rushing yardage record holders to be facing trial for drug trafficking. So, with karma so much a part of what goes on in the world, you give these interesting intangible edges to upsiding QB
Carson Palmer and the Bengals vs. downsiding RB Jamal Lewis and the Ravens. Starvin Marvin, the Bengali Svengali, won the first meeting against his former boss Brian Billick last season and when the time came for the second go-round, it was Cincinnati's third consecutive road game, off two wins. Nobody succeeds in that kind of spot. Having been a major part of Baltimore's prior success story, Starvin Marvin is
acutely aware that the personnel assembled there is forced to rely on the formula that won them a Super Bowl four years ago, a formula that is pretty stale right now because opponents take measures not to fall into the turnover- and bad field position
traps. By being patient and smart against Baltimore early, you can gradually put them under your thumb and go squish because the bigger your lead becomes, the further the Ravens are removed from doing what they do best: running the ball on offense and
getting turnovers on defense. CINCINNATI, 27-13

RECOMMENDED
JACKSONVILLE over *TENNESSEE by 3
Double-revenge for Jacksonville, which has opened the season 2-0 SU and ATS with an improved defense and a more experienced Byron Leftwich making fewer mistakes at QB. The Jags defense limited Denver to 6 points last week, and have allowed an average of less than 10 points in two games this season. Tennessee was able to beat
the hapless Dolphins, but then couldn't stop Indy thanks in large part to off-season subtractions on the defensive line including pass rusher Javon Kearse and run stuffer
Robaire Smith. Nobody made any plays, said head coach Jeff Fisher. And that's
because they let go of some, others were injured before the season began, and they made too many plays last season, when the ball bounced their way and their offense only needed to travel 12.50 yards to get a point. Tennessee's offense aint what it once
was, they will not repeat, will not, be as positive turnover-oriented this season, and Jacksonville should be able to control and run wild in what should be a great matchup for running back Fred Taylor. JACKSONVILLE, 20-17

[Sports Guru]

Hey i just sent that. how ironic since it comes out mondays!

[philadelphiaFan]

guru what about the red sheet check your email

[Sports Guru]

He will post it, when i decide to sent it...in the meantime ill send it to you.

[philadelphiaFan]

thank you guru

[who2beton]

Winning Points

****BEST BET
VIRGINIA* over SYRACUSE by 40
There will be some that make the claim that Paul Pasqualoni managed to plug the leak in the Syracuse dam the past two weeks, with wins and ****** over Buffalo and Cincinnati following that nationally televised 51-0 disaster at Purdue. We think that we know better. The bottom line is that this is an extremely limited team in many areas, with the primary one getting them into the same trouble that it did in the Purdue fiasco. First we can forget the two recent successes, which came largely because of mistakes (nine turnovers) by the opposition. Those victories produced only 27 first downs combined, and for the season the offense has yet to reach 200 yards in a game either running of passing. And that leads to the real problem here,
as they take on an improving defense that may sport the nation's best LB corps. What Pasqualoni has not solved, and likely will not solve this season, is a QB depth chart that shows only inexperience, and not the kind of play-making talent we are accustomed to seeing in an Orange uniform. They finally settled on sophomore lefty Perry Patterson for most of the game vs. Cincinnati, but he threw two interceptions in that home win, and even in the Buffalo victory he was only 7-18 for 61 yards. That will not get it done here, as all of those Virginia offensive weapons set the tone and force him to play from behind throughout, which keeps him from
being nursed by a conservative game plan. Cavaliers coasted vs. Akron and is off
next, so no reason to not have the proper focus. VIRGINIA 47-7.

***BEST BET
BOSTON COLLEGE over WAKE FOREST* by 16
Now that Paul Peterson has developed into a solid field general, we get a nice
opportunity to take advantage of the current 10-2 ATS run by Tom O'Brien's
squad in games away from Chestnut Hill. And all of the motivation that the Eagles need comes from something that happened right on their own field last year, a 32-28 upset that was a bitter pill to swallow. Boston College won the overwhelming majority of snaps that day, showing a clear superiority at the line of scrimmage.
The Eagles led 28-16 in first downs and 443-309 in total offense. But the Demon Deacons did what they often do to an opponent that is seeing Jim Grobe's schemes for the first time they made big plays. The offense struck for touchdowns on a 75 yard run and a 43 yard pass, while the defense contributed a fumble return for
another score. Now it is payback time, and we get it at the right price. Given the recent history of the Eagles on the road the line adjustment for this trip lacks merit, but the real key is that now they get their second look at the Wake Forest option attack, and will not be fooled the way that they were by LY's series of big plays. It gets even tougher for the Deacons to make anything happen because of a series of
injuries in their OL, which makes it difficult for them to create any holes against a Boston College defensive front allowing only 78 yards per game on the ground. Eagles send a preview message in their only game this season vs. an opponent from their future A.C.C. partners. BOSTON COLLEGE 33-17.


**PREFERRED
N.C. State over Virginia Tech* by 5
Ordinarily we would not want to waste space crying over spilled milk like our
BEST BET loss with the Wolfpack last week, but since it directly sets up another play here, we will suffer through the re-examination of the game. We talked about this being Chuck Amato's best defensive unit to date in Raleigh, and they completely
shut down Ohio State last week, helping to compile an almost 2-1 edge in total offense (Buckeyes had only 64 yards passing and 73 rushing). But they were also -4 in turnovers, and you just can not beat a class opponent with that kind of ratio. But now Jay Davis has had four quarters at full speed vs. a difficult defense, and that makes a big difference in terms of execution this week. At this price, all it takes is a clean game from the passing offense to keep it close and the ground game and defense does the rest, with T. A. McLendon (94 yards at 6.3 per carry vs. Ohio State) providing the Wolfpack with the true lead runner that the Hokies lack this season. N. C. STATE 22-17.


Maryland over Duke* by 26
After shellacking these Blue Devils 59-17 and 59-7 in his first two seasons, Raph Friedgan finally let up last year, with a non-covering 33-20 win that was a bit misleading he coasted after leading 27-0 into the fourth quarter. The big wins came when the Terrapins were building, and needed a confidence boost. The let-up came when they did not. Given that they could use a boost this week, we expect Friedgan to go for the jugular, especially since Maryland is off next. That makes this their
final tune-up to prepare for an upcoming murderers row of A.C.C. opponents (next six games will be against teams off of bowl seasons), and it means a concerted effort to clean up the execution after those turnovers vs. West Virginia. If you can go -4 in takeaways against a team like that on the road, and still take the game
to OT, it is a sign that you really do have something going for you. Blue Devils can not say the same, although that back-door score to cover against Virginia Tech still makes them look respectable enough to keep this price low. MARYLAND 38-12.


Cincinnati over East Carolina* by 23
Sometimes having a bye week is not a plus for a football team, and we can't imagine last week's down time helping a Pirate squad that can not improve tactically because they just are not big and strong enough up front on defense. In their first two games they have allowed an average of 359 yards rushing, and an alarming 6.4 per carry, and there will be a real crisis of confidence when they take the field this
week. That is because they face the same Cincinnati OL that pushed them around badly in a 40-3 home win last year, rushing for numbers so alarmingly close to what they are giving up so far this season - 361 at 6.5 per carry. Without a single senior starter in the front seven, and with a LB corps that is among the lightest in Division I, there are no major tricks to make up for those physical gaps, and in
Mark Dantonio's first conference game at the helm with Cincinnati there should
be no holding back. A coach that stresses fundamentals also tightens the screws after that six-turnover loss at Syracuse. CINCINNATI 37-14.


Tennessee* over Louisiana Tech by 14
It is no secret in any deli that the better the ingredients that better a sandwich is going to taste. We have a rather good assortment here. Not only are the young Volunteers going to spend most of this week still day-dreaming about that dramatic
ending against Florida, but whatever focus they do have will be looking
ahead to next week's showdown on this very field vs. Auburn. It becomes so difficult for Phil Fulmer to even try to motivate them to face a team that just got beat 48-0, and that creates the opportunity for this to turn into a dogfight. Despite last week's score that vastly improved Bulldogs defense made a solid account of itself, holding Miami to 17 first downs and 351 yards (the Hurricanes got two TD's on punt returns). Even Ryan Moats was still able to find some room in that game (14 carries for 81 yards). So good defense and good running did not show on the scoreboard, which means a few extra points in a great setting, and a little defense and a little running is all we need here. TENNESSEE 27-13.





****BEST BET
Jacksonville over *Tennessee by 10
The Jaguars are riding a lot of confidence.This season they're winning the close ones, unlike last year.The Jaguars started coming on the latter part of 2003 and they've continued the momentum.The Jaguars are doing it with defense, holding the Bills and Broncos to a combined 16 points. The
Jaguars, not the Titans,now have the best run defense. Jacksonville held the
Bills to 2.6 yards per rush, and last week kept the Broncos excellent
ground attack bottled up. Denver could average just 3.0 yards per rush.
Titans tailback Chris Brown has rushed for at least 100 yards in both his
starts this season. He's a nice upgrade on Eddie George, but the Jaguars
haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher the past 17 games.The Titans are a solid,
well-coached team with playmaking QB Steve McNair. But they are down a
notch from last year after failing to retain several star defensive players,
including Jevon Kearse, while the Jaguars have improved a level. The
Jaguars haven't won at Tennessee since 1998.The Titans have won the past five meetings,covering four of the five.The Jaguars entered this season having lost nine straight road games. But coming from behind to beat the Bills
in Buffalo on the final play and then following it up by defeating the
Broncos at home is a huge confidence boost. So we're going to buck those
trends and history.This is one of the biggest games, if not the biggest, for
the Jaguars under second-year coach Jack Del Rio.The Titans, on the other
hand, are coming off a game against their main division rival the Colts. So
the Jaguars figure to be the more motivated squad. JACKSONVILLE 26-16

***BEST BET
Arizona over *Atlanta by 4
Yes, the Cardinals have lost their last 14 road games and are 1-13 ATS.They
dropped their eight away games last season by an average of nearly 25
points per game. But before you start questioning our mental health, please
consider a few things while maintaining an open mind. First, the Cardinals
have a much better mindset under new coach Dennis Green. They are a
more disciplined, competitive team under Green. Second, the Falcons are
laying an inflated number of points because of their impressive victory
against the Rams last week, and the winless Cardinals losing at home to the
Patriots. The Falcons defense is not nearly the quality of the Patriots.The
Falcons have a vulnerable secondary and a smallish defensive line.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed 51 of 77 passes against the
Falcons, while averaging 285 yards through the air.Arizona wide receiver
Larry Fitzgerald is a blossoming star, and Emmitt Smith still has gas left in
the tank.Third, this is a sandwich spot for the Falcons.They just knocked
off the Rams and they have division rival and NFC conference champion
Carolina up next. Do you see the Falcons getting up for this game? We sure don't. It's not like the Falcons have been so great at home lately anyways, going 9-16 ATS the past three years in the Georgia Dome. Michael Vick had a big game rushing against the Rams, but he still has yet to exceed 180 yards passing while learning a West Coast offense.The Cardinals also may get back their top linebacker, Raynoch Thompson (check status). He's missed the Cardinals first two games.ARIZONA 24-20

NFL
**PREFERRED
*Indianapolis over Green Bay by 15
The Packers are a Super Bowl contender, but they play much weaker in dome stadiums. Green Bay is just 4-15 ATS in domes and 7-18 ATS on carpet. Edgerrin James should find little resistance amassing yardage against a
defensive line missing their key run stopper, injured nose tackle Grady
Jackson.Thomas Jones ran wild on the Packers last week without Jackson
patrolling the middle. Jackson may have been the Packers defensive MVP
the final 10 games last year after being claimed on waivers.Peyton Manning
and Marvin Harrison also should be able to connect against a vulnerable
Packer secondary that has only seen Jake Delhomme and Rex Grossman.
Mike McKenzie, the Packers’ best cornerback, finally ended his holdout but it will be another week or two before he's fully in football shape. The
Packers will look to pound the ball against the small Colts interior with
Ahman Green. Green Bay's attack, though, is designed for a grass field. Look for normally reliable offensive left tackle Chad Clifton to have problems on
turf with the Colts super-quick defensive end Dwight Freeney.This is going to cause problems for Brett Favre, who while he can still fling the ball with the best, no longer has much foot speed. INDIANAPOLIS 46-31.


Houston over *Kansas City by 1
Say a prayer because the Chiefs defense is on life support.They haven't had a sack since Derrick Thomas was playing linebacker.The Chiefs gambled on sticking with basically the same players they had last year and they're getting the same results. A defense this bad shouldn't be laying this many
points to any opponent. On offense Priest Holmes is just about a one-man
show for the Chiefs, with the wide receiving corps banged up and unable
to get open and TE Tony Gonzalez not 100 percent. Sure the winless Chiefs
are hungry for a victory. But so are the Texans.They remain underneath the
radar screen,much better than their 0-2 record.The Texans have out-gained
their two opponents, San Diego and Detroit, 724 yards to 579 yards. The
Texans have punted just four times this season. So why are the Texans 0-2?
Turnovers, seven of them to be exact. QB David Carr, the No. 1 overall pick
in the draft three years ago, is an emerging star, second-year RB Domanick Davis already is doing a good Priest Holmes impersonation with his running and receiving skills and WR Andre Johnson is much better than any of the Chiefs wideouts.The Texans also have a huge revenge angle after the
Chiefs embarrassed them in Houston last season, 42-14. HOUSTON 25-24.


*Miami over Pittsburgh by 3
The Dolphins can't take another early home loss. Their prideful defense
should be ready.You just have to wonder how many points the Dolphins
revised offense can put up against a respectable defense with four new
offensive line starters, a new featured running back and quarterback.The
Steelers are caught in between division games, having played the Ravens
last week and with the Bengals on tap next Sunday followed by another
division game against the Browns. So this is their only non-division game in
a four-week span.They also may be without QB Tommy Maddox (check status), who suffered an elbow injury last week. MIAMI 20-17.


Cleveland over *New York Giants by 1
These Giants don't have Barry Bonds to bail them out. Despite upsetting
the Redskins at home last week, the Giants have been outscored
194-117 their past eight games at Giants Stadium. They have serious
problems in the offensive line and secondary.The Browns, however, suffered several injuries against the Cowboys and could be without defensive linemen Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren and star rookie TE Kellen Winslow Jr.The good news for Cleveland is RB Lee Suggs may see action for the first time this season. He's been out with a neck injury. The
Giants have failed to cover the past six times when laying points at
home. CLEVELAND 21-20.


Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 3
The Bengals have allowed at least 138 yards rushing in half of their last 18 games. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Jamal Lewis hasn't gone to trial yet, and seven-time Pro Bowl tackle Jonathan Ogden has returned to the lineup after missing the opener
with a knee injury.Lewis wasn't nearly as effective rushing when Ogden was out with a knee injury.The Bengals,though,won't be intimidated at home by the fierce Baltimore defense.They scored 34 points on Baltimore last year at home and have
a solid balanced attack. On the flip side QB Kyle Boller has yet to show any accuracy throwing for Baltimore.Deion Sanders could be the Ravens best wideout.The Ravens also could be missing TE Todd Heap (check status).BALTIMORE 23-20.

*St. Louis over New Orleans by 3
Deuce McAllister probably could run right over the Rams behind a talented
offensive line that averages 317 pounds. But now McAllister (check status) has a sprained ankle. If McAllister is out the Saints may load up the field with receivers and try misdirection and trap plays.We don't like either of these coaches, Mike
Martz or Jim Haslett, because their teams make too many mistakes and commit too many turnovers. The Saints are way too undisciplined. The Saints have the pass rushers with Charles Grant, rookie Will Smith and a finally healthy Darren Howard to wreak havoc on Rams QB Marc Bulger.But we need to see more consistency from QB Aaron Brooks before we can offer a recommendation on New
Orleans.The last five in the series have gone over in St. Louis. ST. LOUIS 27-24

OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Green Bay at Indianapolis:The Packers have gone over 11 of their last 12 games on carpet, and don't have the defense without nose tackle Grady Jackson to halt the Colts balanced attack.

UNDER: Chicago at Minnesota: The Bears have gone under 11 of
their last 12 road games on carpet and young QB Rex Grossman figures
to have problems in a noisy dome stadium.

OVER: San Francisco at Seattle: Injuries are starting to mount on
the thin 49ers defense, and the Seahawks are averaging more than 32
points their last three home games.

[Sports Guru]

HEY who2beton I JUST SENT A BUNCH MORE HAVE FUN POSTING THEM.

ONE LAST FINAL COMMENT ON THIS ISSUE. SPECIFICALLY TO SPARK. I HAVE GIVEN OVER 80 MEMBERS OF THIS FORUM A FREE TRIAL...THEY RECEIVE OVER $120 IN INFORMATION PLUS ALOT OF MY TIME. MOST OF THEM ENJOYED THEM BUT SAID NO THANK YOU.

NOW SERIOUSLY, I KNOW YOUR THE "HEAD INFORMATION MAN" CUTTING AND PASTING EVERYTHING FROM THIS SITE AND THE #########...BUT WOULD YOU REALLY WANT TO POST SOMETHING THAT YOU PAID OVER $2200 FOR FOR JUST NO REASON. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? YOU MAKE IT SOUND LIKE I AM MAKING A KILLING OR SOMETHING. I HAVE ALOT LESS THEN 20 CLIENTS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO 1/2 THAT. I SPECIFICALLY STATED THAT THIS DEAL WAS OPEN TO 20 PEOPLE AND 20 PEOPLE ONLY, I WOULD EAT THE REST OF THE COST. I HAVE ACTUALLY BOUGHT 2 SHEETS THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND THEY ENJOY THEM AT A LOSS OF EVEN MORE TO ME. I LIKE THE NEWSLETTERS AND I WANT TO CONTINUE THIS FOR YEARS TO COME, BUT IM NOT GOING TO SHELL OUT $2200 EVERY YEAR JUST SO EVERYBODY CAN SEE THEM FOR FREE. I HAVE EVEN ALLOWED SOME PEOPLE TO PAY ME AT $25 OR $50 INSTALLMENTS IM SIMPLY NOT OUT TO FUCK ANYBODY OVER. IM TRYING TO HELP OUT AS WELL.

EVEN KNOW I OFFERED A FREE TRIAL AND ONE OF THOSE MEMBERS IS POSTING MY STUFF. IS THAT FAIR TO ME IN THE SLIGHEST BIT? I MEAN $5/WEEK HOPEFULLY YOU BET MORE THEN THAT PER GAME. LETS NOT FORGET I REALLY AM THE RESOURSE FOR THIS STUFF UNLESS YOU WANT TO PURCHASE ALL OF THEM AND POST THEM THEN GO RIGHT AHEAD.

BUT WHY DO IT...SO PEOPLE CAN RESPOND AND SAY HOEW GREATFUL THEY ARE.

[who2beton]

Get off your high horse! If you were the only person who subscribed to these newsletters they wouldn't exist because the funds they receive wouldn't support their time and expenses.

You make yourself out to be the martyr in this deal; every single one of these newsletters would drop your ass if they found out you were attempting to resell their written material and trying to garner a profit. As an attorney you should already know this.

[Spark]

Originally posted by Sports Guru


ONE LAST FINAL COMMENT ON THIS ISSUE. SPECIFICALLY TO SPARK. I HAVE GIVEN OVER 80 MEMBERS OF THIS FORUM A FREE TRIAL...THEY RECEIVE OVER $120 IN INFORMATION PLUS ALOT OF MY TIME. MOST OF THEM ENJOYED THEM BUT SAID NO THANK YOU.

First of all I will not respond to this the way I want due to the respect I have for bettors and the CEO over at the other one....But you know as well as I that I get all these newsletters already and I was just joshing with you when I asked bigjim to post them... When you did post, I think it was the GOLD SHEET last week, I was one of the first ones to thank you... I never took a post that you made and placed it somewhere else... it was always a different forum with a different handle... If you want to know the sites just PM me and I will let you know... SG I always thought you were a good guy and I never said a bad thing about you... Why all this animosity toward me I do not understand... You were not sending me the letters and I was not reposting ... Then you say you are an attorney and you do not need the money... That just sounds ridiculous...

Well anyway SG, Good Luck to you and this subject is closed as far as I am concerned...

[Sports Guru]

AS PROMISED GUYS.

THE RED SHEET

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
89* VIRGINIA
89* NORTH CAROLINA STATE
88* ARIZONA STATE
88* MINNESOTA
88* LOUISIANA STATE
88* INDIANAPOLIS (NFL)


VIRGINIA 48 - Syracuse 10 - (3:30) Line opened at Virginia minus 21, and is now minus 24½. We had the Cavaliers as a "1" Rated Release on Pointwise, with absolutely nothing transpiring in the interim to alter our feelings. The fact of the matter is that the Cavs, who have climbed to the #12 spot in the land, are one of the nation's premier squads, have outscored their first 3 foes by a combined 151-34, with c overs of 13½, 10½, & 20 pts, & face a 'Cuse team, which is lost as a road dog. Virginia sports one of the more balanced offenses in the nation, with RB Lundy already accounting for 9 TDs, & is in possession of a brilliant "D", which rank's 11th in the nation. Virginia is on an 11-1 spread run at home, while the Orange are 8-15 ATS as road dogs. Cannot erase 51-0 wipeout in first such 'Cuse setup.
RATING: VIRGINIA 89

North Carolina State 24 - VIRGINIA TECH 22 - (12:00) Line opened at VaTech minus 6½, and is now minus 9½. A week ago, we had the Wolfpack of NCSt in this exact spot, in their hosting role vs Ohio St. They came up short in that one, thanks to the turnover - five, to be exact, 121 yds in penalties, and Buckeye school-record 5 FGs. Those miscues were simply too much to overcome, especially against a quality squad such as OSU. Get this, the Bucks managed an unbelievable 137 yds for the day, with their only TD coming on a drive of just 3 yds. That was a major disappointment for the 'Pack, to be sure, but not as killing as blowing a game late. Thus, Amato has this quick shot at redemption here, & altho the Hokies are again loaded, their 9 returning starters hardly deserve such a solid chalk role.
RATING: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 89

ARIZONA STATE 41 - Oregon State 24 - (10:00) Line opened at Arizona St minus 6½, and is now minus 7. We all know that Texas Tech possesses the nation's most prolific passing offense, a full 100 ypg over #2 Hawaii. But a close 3rd are these Sun Devils, who are going along at a 361 PYpg clip. Since Dick Koetter arrived from Boise 3 years ago, Arizona St has been a wide open team, whose offensive heroics were generally negated by a porous defense. However, this year's Devil team provides that missing ingredient. QB Walter is lighting it up (11 TD passes in the early going), & altho the Beavs also have bona fide aerial star in Anderson, LY's OSt balance is missing (<90 RYpg). Revenge call.
RATING: ARIZONA STATE 88

MINNESOTA 50 - Northwestern 20 - (9:00) Line opened at Minnesota minus 14, and is now minus 15. The only reason that this one wasn't atop our earlier publication, was the fact that the Wildcats were a six star play on our much respected Wise Points section. Thus, we lowered Minny to a "2" rating, but firmly ensconced among our high choices. A year ago, the Gophers finished the season with the nation's 7th rated scoring offense, & this year, they, along with Oklahoma, are currently tied for 5th in scoring. They have the land's premier running duo in Barber & Maroney (250 & 273 RYs respectively the past 2 weeks), & are at their best in the early going, & are catching the Wildcats off 3 brutal encounters.
RATING: MINNESOTA 88

LOUISIANA STATE 56 - Mississippi State 3 - (12:30) Line opened at LSU minus 29, & is still minus 29. Well, it didn't take long for Croom's honeymoon to come to a screeching halt. The 'Dogs opened impressively, with their opening day solid win over Tulane, in a game which featured a 199-70 RY edge (4.2 - 2.4 ypr advantage). But that was quickly followed with a 43-14 home lambasting by Auburn, along with a 310-99 back-to-reality overland deficit. And, of course, they are in off another home loss, this time to Maine, of all folks. MSt was held scoreless over the final 57 minutes in that one. Catching the Tigers off a snapping of their 10-game run is the final nail. Whatever the Tigers want it to be. A scary thought.
RATING: LOUISIANA STATE 88

INDIANAPOLIS 33 - Green Bay 20 - (4:15) Line opened at Indianapolis minus 6, and is still minus 6. A year ago, the Colts came within a few plays from making it to the Super Bowl, as they opened the playoffs with as impressive a pair of offensive showings, as ever recorded in the history of the NFL. Not a single punt in totally destroying the defenses of both Denver & Kansas City. The importance of those near perfect exhibitions cannot be overstated. Their firepower has been respected for years, with Manning, James, Harrison & Co, but their actual blowout results were rare. Not so anymore. They won't rest on the laurels of last week's impressive win at Tennessee, & despite coming in off the Pats & Titans, won't take 'Pack lightly. Allowing 189 RYs in home loss to the Bears, hardly bodes well for GB.
RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Purdue, FloridaSt, Louisville, TexasTech - NFL: Denver, Tennessee, Dallas

[Spark]

Thanks SG... I just left you a PM...

[Sports Guru]

responded! thank you your a class act as well.