Big Dog:30*ST.LOUIS,20*NENG-OVER,20*TCU,10*BUFFALO
H-D SPTS:REG-BALT-UNDER,PITT,TOP-TEXAS A&M
JIMMYS PICS:400*SAN FRAN,250*PITT-OVER,300*BOSTON COLLEGE
Malibu Man:350%BALT,150%HOUSTON-UNDER,300*BUFF(C)
Gold Star:30*DENVER,10*NENG,20*ARIZ ST
DDC:2*PITT,1*SEATTLE-OVER,2*BALL ST
OBX Sports:3*MINNY,2*UTAH,1*UTEP
Diablo Enterprises:3*ST.LOUIS,1*BUFF(C),1*UTAH
2015-2016 Season
NCAA Football:0-6, -15 UNITS
LOCKS: 0-0
NFL: 0-0, +0 UNITS
LOCKS: 0-0
NBA: 0-0, +0 UNITS
LOCKS: 0-0
NCAA HOOPS: 0-0, +0 UNITS
LOCKS: 0-0
We are early with this weeks report due to extra preperation time and no game tapes to review. UCLA did not make it as an official RAS play due to injuries on defense. One starting DL and one starting LB are out as well as one backup LB. A few others are nicked up. I still expect a good overall showing but will keep it only as an early look. Five of our six released plays thus far have seen line moves of at least a point. I recommend placing all wagers as early as possible.
Week 2 recap of plays:
Sunday Night Early Looks (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
Northwestern +7.5
Washington State -1
Vanderbilt +5
UCLA -1
Official RAS Plays (recommended as 1 UNIT plays)
Eastern Michigan -6
Vanderbilt +4
BYU/Notre Dame Over 44
Vanderbilt +4 over South Carolina - 9:30am Pacific (Saturday)
This game is of immeasurable importance to the Commodores. They have 7 "winnable" games this year and there has been much talk about the prospects of them reaching a bowl game for the first time in 22 years. Don't laugh now, but they do have a chance. It all starts with this opening game. Vandy has suffered through two years of futility under 3rd year coach Bobby Johnson (2-10 in both of first two seasons). He has fielded some of the youngest SEC teams you could imagine but this year is what they have been working towards. Vandy returns 10 starters on offense and 11 starters on defense! Vandy features an offensive and defensive lineman who were named to the preseason all-SEC team. Starting QB Jay Cutler is a legitimate NFL prospect. He has received rave reviews in fall practices for better decision making. The receiving group is said to be much improved as well. Running back duo of Kwane Doster and Norval McKenzie remains in tact. The defense features SEC sack leader Jovan Haye, stud LB Moses Osemwegie (126 tackles, 10.5 for loss last year) and 9 other returning starters. For the first time in a while, Vandy has competitive SEC team. Excitement and expectations are high.
South Carolina is coming off back to back 5-7 seasons. Their offense has struggled the last two seasons and even with 9 returning starters back it is hard to foresee major improvement with QB Pinkins still the starter. He is for the most part an inconsistent passer and decision maker. He completed only 50.3% of his passes last year. Head coach Holtz made some coaching changes since last season. He has named himself as offensive coordinator and has brought in former Cincinnati head coach Rick Minter as his new defensive coordinator. Minter will be the third coordinator in three years as the Gamecocks miss former DC Charlie Strong who moved on to Florida prior to last season after great success here. They allowed 26.2ppg last season which is the most in the Holtz era. Eight starters are back but the losses were key performers LB Garrison (leading tackler), CB Robinson (1st round draft choice), and CB Eiland (6th round draft choice). The secondary remains suspect.
Vanderbilt should have confidence heading into this game. They actually outgained the Gamecocks 456-to-379 in last years meeting in Columbia. SC capitalized on two turnovers deep in Vandy territory to take a 21-3 early lead. Vandy fought back but eventually lost 35-24 finishing with a -3 turnover ratio. Quote from Lou Holtz after the game, "I went to Skip when we were up 28-10 and said we can't stop them, you will have to control it on offense." With almost everyone back and now playing at home a year later they must feel they have a good chance of turning the tables.
There has to at least be a fair chance that South Carolina is looking ahead to their huge home opener vs Georgia next week. Meanwhile, this could not be any bigger of a game for Vandy who has a BYE following this. If South Carolina does not show major improvement from last season and bring their A game, they will lose this game outright. The Gamecocks ended last season with 4 straight losses and are just 3-7 ATS (0-2 ATS on road) in the role of the favorite in past two seasons. They are also 1-4-1 ATS in season openers under Holtz. Even with extremely young teams, the Commodores are 5-2-2 ATS as a home dog under Bobby Johnson. One of those ties was a heartbreaking 7 point OT loss to bowl bound Georgia Tech last season. Bobby Johnson is a good coach who will have his team ready to play. He is also a Columbia native which only gives him even more desire to win this game. Take the points.
Vanderbilt 1 UNIT
As of 1:30pm Pacific on Thursday, books are split 50/50 on +3.5 & +4 for this game. Shop around if you can. Carib, BoDog, and Olympic are among those still at +4.
Notre Dame at BYU (Over 44) - 6:15pm Pacific (Saturday)
BYU head coach Gary Crowton is considered to be an excellent offensive coach. He was the offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears four years ago, and three years ago his first BYU team averaged a whopping 44.1 points per game. You can imagine how disappointed and embarrassed he must be with the Cougars offensive output the last two seasons. In particular last year when BYU only averaged 16.3 points per game and in their season finale were shut out for the first time in 28 years. The offensive struggles can be attributed to a merry go round at QB and several other injuries and suspensions to key personnel. The Cougars returned just 3 offensive starters in 2002 and 5 in 2003. Four different QB's saw significant time in 2002 and 3 different in 2003 due to injuries and erratic play. The 2004 BYU offense looks to be much improved.
In the offseason Crowton promised to take responsibility for play calling this year. Not only do I expect a big offensive improvement, but you can be assured that the Cougars will be taking to the air more often and this years team is built just for that. BYU lost its top two RB's to graduation and honor code violation but they are loaded with talented receivers. Sophomore QB John Beck has been named the opening game starter. Even as a freshman last year he was the teams most consistent QB. He is also said to have made great strides in the offseason. Junior WR Chris Hale was probably the best receiver on the team last year but was limited by injury. Senior WR Rod Wilkerson has 22 career starts under his belt. Sophomore TE Daniel Coats was unstoppable in many games last year. He earned freshman all-American honors and this year is on the Mackey Award watch list for the nations top tight end. The big news at receiver is the addition of JC all-American Todd Watkins. He is 6-3 and is a speed burner. There has been a lot of hype surrounding him and early reports indicate he is even better than the hype. Insiders are already calling him the best WR in the conference! The offensive line got a new coach in Jeff Grimes (formerly at Arizona State) and he has talent to work with. Last year three QB's combined for only 12 touchdowns, threw 21 interceptions, and were sacked 35 times. Expect a drastic improvement.
Defensively, BYU only returns 3 starters and they have been dealt a rash of injuries on this side of the ball. Their top two defensive tackles Manaia Brown and Daniel Marquardt both were sidelined for the majority of fall camp. Both are now expected to start but I do not believe they will be at their best. Meanwhile, LB's Paul Walkenhorst and Bryant Atkinson, two potential starters will miss the season with injuries. Another LB, touted JC transfer Lawrence Cowan is also out. Starting "catback", sophomore K.C. Bills, recently suffered a shoulder injury and will miss the season. BYU gave up 25.8 points per game last season and it is unlikely the defense will be any better this year, especially early on.
Notre Dame returns 8 starters on offense and should do much better than the 20.3ppg they averaged last season. They received poor play from starter Carlyle Holiday at QB and true freshman Brady Quinn came on to start the final 9 games. Quinn got a fast education facing the likes of Purdue, Pitt, USC, Boston College, and Florida State last year. He did very well for a true freshman and should have a nice sophomore year as he is surrounded by very talented teammates at every position. UND returns its top two receivers and 8 of the their top 10 offensive lineman. They must replace top RB Jones but they have plenty of talented backs. Almost every starter in this unit came in highly recruited out of high school. This will be the third year in Willingham's offense and this should be by far the most efficient passing game they have had since his arrival.
Defensively, ND returns 6 starters but lost star leading tackler Courtney Watson to the NFL. LB Brandon Hoye (practiced for the first time in pads on Wednesday) who was 2nd to Watson in tackles last year has missed significant practice time leading up to this game but now is expected to give it a go. The defensive line lost two starters and the secondary is a big question mark with three losses to graduation, two of which were drafted. Starting CB was just decided a few days ago and starting strong safety was just announced on Wednesday. When CB Preston Jackson was named the starter, there were a lot of moans and groans on the Irish message boards as he is not a well regarded player. Newly named starting SS Lionel Bolen has just one career start and has been used sparingly in his first three seasons. Additionally, last years sack leader DE Justin Tuck (13.5 sacks) had knee surgery in the offseason and coaches indicate they will use a four man rotation at defensive end.
UND won last years meeting 33-14 (47 points) and I expect both offenses to be significantly improved while the two defenses will be similar at best. Both teams do not have a big name running back to feature and will be looking to pass to very talented receivers against suspect secondaries. BYU in particular will be looking to spread the field and put the ball in the air which makes for a longer game and more opportunities for points. BYU has averaged 45.3 points per game in season openers in the Crowton era. Take the over.
Over 44 1 UNIT
As of 1:30pm Pacific on Thursday, the consensus line for this game is at 44. It should be noted that Pinnacle is currently at 43.5 -105. Shop around if you can.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2004 RAS College Football Service Features:
Sunday Night "Early Looks" Report: Delivered each Sunday night shortly after the posting of opening lines. Intended to take advantage of early, softer lines. Report includes handicapping information, insight, and analysis of several matchups. (Recommended as 1/2 UNIT bet). 36-27 in 2003.
RAS Official Plays: Delivered Friday mornings (unless otherwise indicated). Plays made after the latest weekly developments. Higher selectivity, and more in-depth analysis. (Recommended as 1 or 2 UNIT bets.) 22-19 in 2003. 169-142 +24.8 UNITS lifetime.
*In cases where the same play exists on the Early Looks report and Official Play report, it will be recommended as a 1.5 or 2.5 UNIT play.
Saturday Live Half-time Service: Intended to take advantage of half-time betting opportunities. Plays are delivered via e-mail, cell phone text, or online Instant Messaging services (AOL, AIM, Yahoo, MSN, or ICQ) during designated time windows. (Recommended as 1/2 unit bets.) 15-10 in 2003.
Additional Opinion Requests: I regularly watch 10-15 college football games per week in their entirety either live or on tape. If a game you are interested in does not make the weekly reports, feel free to ask for an opinion. If I have one, I will be happy to share it with you.
2004-05 Subscription Rates:
2004 College Football Service
Full Season Rate: $199
2004-05 College Basketball Service
Full Season Rate: $399
2004-05 College Football & College Basketball Service Combo
Full Season Rate: $549
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YTD/NFL Preseason 19-10-1, +19.4 Units
NCAA 2-0, +6.0 Units
We head into the first big weekend of College Football with a decent slate of games and wagering opportunities. Unfortunately, the storms from Hurricane Frances will postpone some games and cause travel havoc with a few others in all sports this weekend.
NCAA Football
3* Texas A&M +8.5
3* UTEP +25.5
2* Buffalo +7
I am going to reach on some underdogs that may have a poor public perception. Buffalo is a poor team, especially on the road but a case can be made that this is the best opportunity they have all year for a straight up victory. E. Michigan returns a good portion of their starters yet so do the Bulls. I like to buck the favorites early in the season when offenses have had no live action to test themselves and everyone feels like they can win. I don't feel the talent levels of these two teams are really that far apart. Both are the bottom feeders of the conference and in a game of this level, I will gladly take the points.
Dennis Francione has had several months to look back at a disasterous first year at A&M and work on fixing a very leaky defense. Make no mistake, the talent level in the state of Texas may be the best in the U.S. and my belief is that he will be able to go into tonight's opener with a much more representative squad over what people saw at the end of last season. A 77-0 pounding by Oklahoma came only a couple of weeks after the Aggies laid a similar whupping on Baylor, 73-10. I think this contest plays much closer than would appear and ball control for A&M will keep this from becoming a track meet, which is a game that Texas A&M can not win. I lean to this contest going UNDER 49.5 as well. This one could be decided late.
Mike Price seeks redemption for his sins while starting over in El Paso. The good news is he inherited an experienced squad and while this didn't translate to W's under Gary Nord, the cupboard is hardly bare. Multiple returning starters and an amazing amount of redshirt seniors dominate this squad. There should be no question about Price's coaching abilities, bringing some of the nation's best talent to the barren outpost of Pullman, Washington and creating a football power. He can and will do the same in El Paso over time and I like the fact that he certainly knows how to compete against the Pac-10. ASU has depth and injury problems and I see no reason that justifies a spread this large with a team in the lower ranks of a mediocre conference. Look for UTEP to give the Sun Devils all they can handle.
NFL
As most teams have seen what they need to see from the starters and will not risk injury heading into the regular season, wagering on backups and guys playing to make the roster is not very appealing. That being said, I will offer two small plays tonight.
2* Detroit -6
2* SF/SD OVER 39
This is less a wager on a fairly high number on the Lions than it is a bet against a Bills team with some real problems offensively. Losing J.P. Losman and Travis Brown at QB has forced Mularkey to sign Shane Matthews as a backup QB. With Bledsoe expected to see very limited action, Buffalo will turn over the offense to a QB with less than 4 days of reps in camp and a waiver wire pickup at that. Travis Henry is out and I see a game played not to lose any more players rather than to win. The Lions always play well at home and McMahon is a decent, if not sterling 2nd team QB. I see the Lions doing enough to get the win and cover and the Bills just wanting to get back to New York in one piece. Detroit by 10+.
In San Francisco, we have the two bottom feeders of the NFL matching up in the final tuneup to the regular season. While most teams with realistic playoff hopes are content to rest the starters this week and are comfortable knowing that this weekend's results are about keeping guys healthy, filling those last few special teams and roster spots. Wins and losses this weekend mean nothing. However, these two teams are looking to start Week One of the regular season on an upbeat note and that means a win in preseason finales... both teams will play the starters longer than normal and have shown enough this preseason offensively to make this total appear low. While I am not comfortable with SF as a 5 point favorite over anyone, I do expect to see both teams moving the ball and a total closer to 50 tonight. A win tonight will provide false hope for one of these two teams looking forward to next week. It may be the last reason for optimism for the entire year.
Good Luck in whatever you play tonight, back tomorrow with some more plays!
Mychal www.AdvantagePlays.com
Football Only Handicappers since 1991 (877)NFL-NCAA (Toll Free)
Bobby Cash (2-6):
NCAA (0-0): Top Rated Play Utah Utes
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (2-6): Regular Play NY Giants
California Sports (Opinions, 0-1, Official Plays 10-4-1):
NCAA (0-0):
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (0-1/10-4-1/GOY LOSS): Regular Plays Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders
Cobra (6-9):
NCAA (0-0):
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (6-9): Regular Play New England Patriots
Dave Cokin (5-4-1):
NCAA (0-0):
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (5-4-1): NFL Pre-Season Game of the Year Denver Broncos
Mike Lee (0-0): *** Will Begin NFL Regular Season Week One
NCAA (0-0):
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (0-0): No Report
Mike Neri (Opinions 4-8, Official Plays 7-1):
NCAA (OP 0-1, OR 0-0): Regular Play Boston College Eagles
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (4-7/7-1):
Mike "MD" Rose (3-4-1):
NCAA (0-0): Regular Plays Texas A&M Aggies and Northwestern Wildcats
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (3-4-1): Top Rated Play NY Giants
The New York Wiseguys (3-2-1):
NCAA (0-0): Small Play Texas A&M Aggies at +9
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (3-2-1): PASS
Northcoast Sports (2* Opinions 4-3, Official Plays 5-11/4* 0-1, 3.5* 0-1, 3* 5-9):
NCAA (0-0): 3* Texas A&M Aggies, SMALL COLLEGE REPORT (Valued at Half the Star Rating) 3* Boston College Eagles, Non Rated Top OPINION UTEP Miners
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (4-3/5-11): 3* Kansas City Chiefs, 3* NY Giants, 3* New England Patriots, Top OPINIONS Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Diego Chargers
Northcoast Sports TOTALS (Opinions 1-0, Official Plays 0-1):
NCAA (0-0): PASS
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (1-0/0-1): PASS
OC Dooley/OCD Picks (8-10-3):
NCAA (0-0): Regular Play UTEP Miners
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (8-10-3): Regular Plays SD Chargers, Arizona Cardinals and NY Giants
Pacific Star (11-9-1):
NCAA (0-0): Regular Play UTEP Miners
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (11-10-1): Regular Plays Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders
Pointwise Late Telephone/LTS (10-7-1):
NCAA (0-1):
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (10-6-1): Regular Plays NE Patriots, Detroit Lions and Houston Texans
Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks (5-5, 3* 3-3, 4* 2-2, 5* 0-0):
NCAA (0-0):
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (5-5): 3* Northwestern Wildcats
Joe Gavazzi's Private Players of Pittsburgh (Opinions 4-5, Official Plays 1-2):
NCAA (OP 1-0, OR 0-0): 3* Northwestern Wildcats, Non Rated Opinions Eastern Michigan Eagles, Boston College Eagles, UTEP Miners
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (OP 3-5, OR 1-2): 3* New England Patriots
Probability (0-0):
NCAA (0-0): Regular Play Texas A&M Aggies
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (0-0):
USA Sports (0-0):
NCAA (0-0): Regular Plays Eastern Michigan Eagles, Utah Utes and UTEP Miners
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (0-0):
Winning Points Late Telephone Service (16-15-2):
NCAA (0-1): Regular Play UTEP Miners
NFL (0-0):
NFLX (16-14-2): Top Rated Play Detroit Lions, Regular Plays Pittsburgh Steelers, Minnesota Vikings and Oakland Raiders
SAGARIN RATINGS FOR TONIGHT'S NCAA MATCHUPS (Includes Home Field Adv):
Buffalo Bulls 48.94 at Eastern Michigan Eagles 56.86
Texas A&M Aggies 73.74 at Utah Utes 81.03
Boston College Eagles 79.15 at Ball State Cardinals 65.37
Northwestern Wildcats 70.39 at TCU Horned Frogs 78.98
UTEP Miners 51.81 at Arizona State Sun Devils 78.57
Additional Services:
Sportswizards (6-1): NFL One Unit KC Chiefs,
Brian Gabrielle (4-2-2): Regular Play TCU Horned Frogs
Gold Star (0-0): 30* NFL Denver Broncos, 10* NFL NE Pats, 20* NCAA Arizona State
Rob Crowne (0-1): UTEP Miners
Advantage Sports (7-3-1): 3* A&M, 3* UTEP, 2* Buffalo, 2* Detroit Lions, 2* SD/SF Over
NSA (0-0): 20* Sonny LaFouchi Wiseguy Play Northwestern Wildcats
Net Prophet (3-7-1): NFL Detroit and Oakland, NCAA UTEP and TCU/NWestern Over
Stu Feiner (0-2): NCAA Northwestern, NFL Baltimore Ravens
ASA (American Sports Analysts 0-0): 3* Texas A&M
The Heisman's 5% Thursday Night NCAA College Football Best Bet Release:
# 123 Texas A&M Aggies +8.5 (-120) over Utah Utes
RESTRICTED to Texas A&M +8.5 (-120) on the HALF POINT BUY.
Please Buy the HALF POINT on The 12th Man to +8.5 (-120) to Meet This Restriction.
*** Those Unable to Buy Points Should Invest at +8 Reduced to Win 4.5%.
Please Invest at +8.5 (-120) to Win 5% (Preferred), or at +8 to Win 4.5%.
The Heisman's On-Site College Football Weather Intel (7:45 PM EDT ESPN Kickoff):
Prtly Cldy, 30% Chance of an Isolated Thunderstorm, 80 Degrees, Wind N/NW 13 MPH
The Heisman's 5% Thursday Night NCAA College Football Best Bet Release:
# 128 TCU Horned Frogs MONEY LINE ONLY -225 over Northwestern Wildcats
RESTRICTED to TCU ON THE MONEY LINE ONLY. Please Note That There
Is NO ATS ALLOWANCE for This Release. Please Invest on the Money Line or Pass.
Please Invest at -225 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (Those Unable to Play the ML Should PASS)
The Heisman's On-Site College Football Weather Intel (8:30 PM EDT ESPN2 Kickoff):
Sunny/Clear, 82 Degrees, Negligible Wind from the SouthEast at 4 MPH
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