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  • #16
    Kapt. :

    I cant help but think that these will prevail today :

    (*****)
    Los Angeles at SD over 7 -120 - Ishii is not a good pitcher on the road as his high walk total really kills him because he allows so many base runners. Ishii's road splits are bad (6.37 era, 1.79 whip over 59.1 ip) and he hasn't pitched particularly well against SD allowing 9 er over 17.1 ip in his last three vs. the Pads. This total seems to be very low to me and I'll take a shot on the over in this one.

    (***)
    St. Louis at SF over 9 -120 - I am coming back again with the over in this game tonight. Both of these starters have had their difficulties lately. Rueter's last three have not been good (5.94 era, 1.86 whip) and his performance at home has been less than scintillating (5.05 era, 1.75 whip). The Cards have had success against Rueter tagging him for 9 er over 4.2 ip in his last two starts against them. STL has fared well against LH's on the road scoring 5.7 rpg. Morris is always capable of giving up the long ball and the Giants have gone over the total 29-19 for the season and 9 of their last 11. Laz Diaz is behind the plate tonight and he is an over ump going 11-10 over w/10.36 rpg and 62.6k%. I'll play the over in this one.

    (*****)
    Oakland at Texas -121 - Ryan Drese has been fabulous at home for the Rangers this season (6-1, 1.98 era, 1.08 whip over 68.1 ip). He is a big reason the Rangers have been so solid at home this year (31-15). Granted, Zito has great historical success against the Rangers (12 er over 54 ip 2.00 era in his L8 vs. Texas) but he has not been the same pitcher this year and has not pitched well on the road. I'll take the Rangers at this value number at home where they thrive!

    Other considerations for me today are Atl -150 (***) , Sea/Anah over 9.5 (*), and Balt/NYY over 9.5 +105 (***).

    Parlay : LA/SD Over 7 -120 / Texas -121 / Braves -150 / Balt/NYY Over 9.5 +105 @ * = 1440.00

    Thinking about pushing my luck with the Braves under also , will be back with a determination on it shortly

    G.L.

    ***MMM***
    " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

    Comment


    • #17
      OK :

      Im a sucker for something thats streaky and this has its mojo working at high temperature lately :


      New York Mets at Atlanta Under 8 -115 (*****)

      Benson & Wright


      I played this game “Under” yesterday and came away a winner. There were actually just 4 total runs produced, which was 5 less than the posted number. Today’s play is an even easier decision, as the starting pitchers are much stronger than they were Friday.

      Yesterday’s result puts Atlanta at 40-57 (o/u) this season and 19-28 (o/u) at home. Moreover, they are a staggering 26-41 (o/u) vs. right-handed starters this season and 2-14-1 (o/u) their last seventeen overall. Those are solid “Under” trends of 59%, 60%, 61%, and 88%. Eye opening to say the least!!!

      As cited yesterday, looking at the Braves recent stats paints a pretty clear picture of why they are an “Under” oriented team. They are averaging just 3.2 runs per contest of offense their last ten games and yielding just 2.7 runs per contest during this same time span. That means the average total runs produced in their past ten games has been 5.9. Not surprisingly, they are 1-9 (o/u) during this span. And as the 2.7 runs per game against would suggest, the Braves pitching has been nothing short of phenomenal. In fact, Atlanta now boasts a hard to believe team ERA of 2.62 their last ten games (!!!) and a microscopic 1.05 ERA from the pen during the same stretch. It does not get much better than that when looking to play a game “Under”.

      As far as the pitching match-up goes, the Mets will send the newly acquired Benson to the hill. Benson carried a decent 4.22 ERA and 1.368 WHIP with the Pirates this season, including a very strong 3.22 ERA and 1.075 WHIP his past three starts. We should also note that the Pirates were 1-8-1 (o/u) in Benson’s previous ten starts and also a perfect 0-5 (o/u) in Benson’s five career starts vs. the Braves. He actually carries a fantastic 2.37 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in those five career starts vs. his opponent today.

      On the other side of the equation, Atlanta will send Wright. This guy has been awesome this year, carrying a 3.23 ERA overall, 2.87 ERA at home and 1.42 ERA in his past three starts overall. We should also mention he is 0-3 (o/u) his past three games and 8-12 (o/u) for the season. By all accounts, Wright should have no trouble holding down the mediocre bats of New York. On the same token, Benson should keep the ice cold Braves line up in check as well. Lastly, we should mention that these teams have faced off five times thus far on the season and are a perfect 0-5 (o/u). We’ll trust the numbers and call for this to once again stay far below the posted number.

      I couldnt say it any better , in any language !

      G.L.

      ***MMM***

      Also mix this with : LA O7 / Texas / St Lou O9 / Braves @ * = 943.00

      And Without Atl @ * = 526.00
      " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

      Comment


      • #18
        Lady M

        The Old Kaptain had 3 of your 4 OVERS already hi-lighted...Ironicly, the one I didn't is the Yanks...In your banger...
        I also have Montreal/Fla OVER 8....You know I don't play unders, in my search for OVERS, I found 2 so far of, they qualify for UNDERs...Az/Colo, and Tex/Oak.....

        as far as the Braves UNDER, they almost qualified for one of my OVERS...Mets 4.6 RPG, ATL 4.7....BAs are 254/262...both have decent bull pens...Pitchers last 3 are magnificent--3.22era/1.42era..Weather conditions slightly favor pitcher, winds in from right at 6-11 mph...T 84 hum 67....Those 2 (temp/humidity )are not close enough together to constitue a heavy ball...This is a hitters park...

        and the main reason: Theres some mystique about a pitcher just coming up/ traded and pitching for a new team the first time/right after re-signing a new contract etc---that has a "Kiss of Death" on it...

        If you go this way, good luck....I'm not playing it either way, but if you forced me to choose---OVER

        heres the garbage I'm gonna be mixmatching/playing/parlaying for tonight...

        Clev***-143parlay with
        CW Sox***-124

        Texas-123parlay with
        Colo***-144

        Fla-185 parlay with
        St Louis***-153

        Mont OVER 7 1/2 -115
        LA OVER 7 1/2 Even

        SAN Fran OVER 9 -125
        Seattle OVER 10-105

        Parlay
        Atlanta -160
        Twins -107

        ***Denotes 4 Bagger..cle/chi/st louis/colo...1/7.60
        4 OVERS Denote 4 Bagger...ana/fla/la/cards...1/12.08

        Parlays as laid out
        4 baggers as spelled out
        ###############################
        Lady M
        finished reg plays at +1.14
        4 baggers -2.00
        lose 0.86 for the day....LA over would have been nice..
        see you later today...as always..kmann
        ###############################
        Last edited by Kaptain; 08-01-2004, 06:43 AM.


        Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

        Comment


        • #19
          WELCOME
          and the best of LUCK.
          Forza Udinese

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Kapt. :

            Originally posted by MemphisMafia
            I cant help but think that these will prevail today :

            (*****)
            Los Angeles at SD over 7 -120 - Ishii is not a good pitcher on the road as his high walk total really kills him because he allows so many base runners. Ishii's road splits are bad (6.37 era, 1.79 whip over 59.1 ip) and he hasn't pitched particularly well against SD allowing 9 er over 17.1 ip in his last three vs. the Pads. This total seems to be very low to me and I'll take a shot on the over in this one.

            (***)
            St. Louis at SF over 9 -120 - I am coming back again with the over in this game tonight. Both of these starters have had their difficulties lately. Rueter's last three have not been good (5.94 era, 1.86 whip) and his performance at home has been less than scintillating (5.05 era, 1.75 whip). The Cards have had success against Rueter tagging him for 9 er over 4.2 ip in his last two starts against them. STL has fared well against LH's on the road scoring 5.7 rpg. Morris is always capable of giving up the long ball and the Giants have gone over the total 29-19 for the season and 9 of their last 11. Laz Diaz is behind the plate tonight and he is an over ump going 11-10 over w/10.36 rpg and 62.6k%. I'll play the over in this one.

            (*****)
            Oakland at Texas -121 - Ryan Drese has been fabulous at home for the Rangers this season (6-1, 1.98 era, 1.08 whip over 68.1 ip). He is a big reason the Rangers have been so solid at home this year (31-15). Granted, Zito has great historical success against the Rangers (12 er over 54 ip 2.00 era in his L8 vs. Texas) but he has not been the same pitcher this year and has not pitched well on the road. I'll take the Rangers at this value number at home where they thrive!

            Other considerations for me today are Atl -150 (***) , Sea/Anah over 9.5 (*), and Balt/NYY over 9.5 +105 (***).

            Parlay : LA/SD Over 7 -120 / Texas -121 / Braves -150 / Balt/NYY Over 9.5 +105 @ * = 1440.00

            Thinking about pushing my luck with the Braves under also , will be back with a determination on it shortly

            G.L.

            ***MMM***
            Part #1 is in place ..... now the praying starts :confused:
            " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

            Comment

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