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WinOnBaseball.com - Wednesday - 6/23/04
Welcome to our first annual service free trial!
-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.
-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated weekly on the "Records" page of our website.
-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Thursday, June 24th.
Season record: 133-151 -32.65 UNITS
Lines from Pinnacle current as of 8:49pm Pacific on 06/22/04.
Four plays for Wednesday:
PHI (MILLWOOD) -135 over Mon (Kim) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Millwood showed signs of turning it around in his last start against a tough Detroit offense. Against Montreal's offense, he should fare just as well. Kim has pretty decent numbers, but most of those are in relief. His poor control and command will get exposed when he has to pitch for longer periods. His numbers will worsen as he pitches more, and Philly's offense has the ability to expose him.
MIL (CAPUANO) -136 over Col (Estes) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
This is the second game of the opening road trip, and will bet against Colorado one more time in tomorrow's game as part of the "Coors hangover effect." Colorado continues their cold play on the road.
OVER 9 CHC (RUSCH)/STL (SUPPAN) -112 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Rusch has pitched surprisingly well, but with his stuff, there's no way he'll be able to sustain it. The meat of the Cardinals lineup has really abused Rusch, so I think they can do some damage in this game. Suppan has been pretty bad at Busch, with a 5.13 ERA and .321 BAA.
UNDER 7 ARI (JOHNSON)/SD (WELLS) -136 - 1 UNIT - 7:05pm Pacific
Johnson has owned the Padres. I don't see any reason why he won't continue his success against them. He lost his last outing, but that was against Tampa when they were the hottest team in the league. Petco Park will help as well. Wells has also been very good, and the Arizona team struggles against lefties.
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Re: Hey Spark I have a 3 part question
Originally posted by Silk
1. Where do you get Marc Lawrences 2nd free pick? The Milwaukee
game is listed on his site, but I don't know where to look for the San Diego play.
2. Does OTM have a website?
3. Do you have JCD free pick?
I get M.L from another site....
JCD Sports now 15-10 on the forum.
Today’s Free Pick in MLB: Anaheim –140 (Escobar) over Oakland (Redman) & anyone from Oakland’s bullpen!
Oakland is 0-6 in Redman's last six starts vs. Anaheim
The A's are 1-7 in their last eight overall.
Oakland has lost the last five meetings.
Home team is 12-4 in Meals last 16 BHP.
We can’t wait for this game to get to the Oakland bullpen where this bunch has an ERA over 10.62 over their last 10 games.
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Thanks Neil
Dunkel Index - Wednesday
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 23
National League
Philadelphia (Millwood) 10.14 (Even) Montreal* (Kim) 10.12
O/U: 8
Florida* (Penny) 10.57 (2) Atlanta (Thomson) 8.46
O/U: 8 1/2
New York Mets* (Seo) 11.29 (2) Cincinnati (Van Poppel) 9.46
O/U: 8 1/2
Milwaukee* (Capuano) 10.63 (2 1/2) Colorado (Estes) 8.23
O/U: 9
Houston* (Munro) 10.85 (2 1/2) Pittsburgh (Vogelsong) 8.32
O/U: 9
St. Louis* (Suppan) 11.40 (Even) Chicago Cubs (Rusch) 11.36
O/U: 9
San Diego* (Wells) 9.52 (1) Arizona (Johnson) 8.69
O/U: 6 1/2
San Francisco* (Williams) 11.69 (2) Los Angeles (Weaver) 9.78
O/U: 9 1/2
American League
Tampa Bay (Zambrano) 11.32 (1 1/2) Toronto* (Halladay) 9.69
O/U: 8 1/2
Boston* (Lowe) 10.67 (1) Minnesota (Silva) 9.50
O/U: 9 1/2
New York Yankees (Lieber) 10.89 (3) Baltimore* (Bedard) 8.04
O/U: 10
Cleveland (Lee) 9.73 (1/2) Chicago White Sox* (Buehrle) 9.60
O/U: 10
Texas* (Bierbrodt) 11.07 (1) Seattle (Franklin) 10.20
O/U: 11
Kansas City* (May) 9.87 (1/2) Detroit (Knotts) 9.53
O/U: 9
Anaheim* (Escobar) 10.03 (1/2) Oakland (Redman) 9.56
O/U: 8 1/2
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WUNDERDOG
Houston (-185) vs. Pittsburgh (Munro vs. Vogelsong)
Pittsburgh can't win on the road. They've lost 11 straight and tonight they get an very good Houston ballclub that's picking up steam. Vogelsong is getting crushed this year. He has a ridiculous 7.62 ERA. Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more with an on base percentage .350 or worse on the season (NL) are 5-38 (88.4%, +28.3 units) over the last 5 seasons when playing on Wednesday. Pittsburgh is 5-18 (-12.3 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. With Munro on the mound, the Astros are 7-1 (+5.2 Units) against the money line in home games as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. One unit on Houston.
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SEAGULL SPORTS
MLB ytd 80-56 +43.56 units based on 5 units per play.
50* Milwaukee Brewers/Capuano -140
20* Baltimore Orioles/Bedard +140
20* Seattle Mariners/Franklin -108
20* Colorado Rockies/Milwaukee Brewers under 9 5
20* San Diego Padres/Wells +110
10*Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Zambrano +155
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MLB Freebie for June 23rd
Free picks are 69-60 (+20.77 units) in 2004.
Free 1-unit MLB Freebie for June 23rd:
Take Arizona (Johnson) -120 at San Diego (Wells)
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Enjoy the Freebie!
SportsGuru
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PPP
COMP -
Toronto with Halladay (-165) vs. Tampa Bay with Zambrano
A quick look at Major League standings shows that only one team is playing
600 or better baseball, the New York Yankees. Yet, Tampa Bay who
finished last in their division in the last 3 years and began the year
3-19 is currently on a 23-6 run, 79%, including winning 12 consecutive
games. That all ends tonight. The Rays have made their recent run with
solid starting pitching. They''ve won 6 consecutive decisions for Victor
Zambrano. That''s mainly, however, because they''ve given him over 7 runs
a game in support in those 6 games. In fact, over his last 8 starts, 40
and one third innings, Zambrano has allowed 74 base runners. That type of
luck will not continue. Though Toronto''s Halladay has yet to match his
Cy Young form of last year, he has a 2.35 ERA vs. TBay L2Y and a solid 3.2
ERA L3Games, allowing just 18 base runners in 20 innings. The Jays own a
decided offensive edge along with by far the better starting pitching. We
look to go against Tampa Bay today and many times in the near future.
Penthouse Picks -
Texas with Bierbrodt (even money) vs. Seattle with Franklin
The Rangers hold a dominate hitting edge and home/road dichotomy in this
matchup. They are 21-11 at home while Seattle is 13-21 away. It showed
in the 10-2 victory last night. Now we get them as a home dog and can''t
pass up the value. The M''s Franklin was ripped in his only appearance at
Texas this year allowing 9 hits and 7 runs in 2 and two thirds innings of
a 14-6 loss. His 5.4 road ERA as ammunition for us. Rangers'' starter
Bierbrodt pitched well in AAA and allowed just 3 runs in 6 innings in this
season''s MLB debut last Wednesday against the Reds. Take the better team
as home dog.
Detroit with Knotts (even money) vs. Kansas City with May
Huge hitting advantage for Detroit in this series implies last night''s
8-1 Tiger loss to be an abberation. Tonight we should get the better of
it on the mound as well. Royals'' starter May has a 5.96 ERA for the
year, 6.57 at home and 6.75 in his last 3 starts. Detroit''s Knotts is
4.25 at home, 3.04 away and 2.84 in his last 3 starts in which he has
allowed just 12 hits in 19 innings of work. Detroit is the side in this
one.
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