Here's how to win in baseball, for now at least

[griswold]

Keep playing Tampa Bay and play no other game on the board. Tampa has now won 18 of its last 24 straight up and the books are STILL making them dogs almost every night. The public/and or books can't get past their prejudices that this is supposed to be a terrible team. Their awful start has masked just how hot they are. Who knows how long this will continue? Certainly not I, but I'm going to keep riding this until they lose three in a row.

And they are a monster dog again on Friday! +210 or so to Randy Johnson. This is fun and you don't have to risk much because they keep coming up as a + dog.

[bgh2003]

Be careful, because the Rays really aren't that good, but they are well-managed (Piniella), young and feisty, and you will get value with them against overrated teams (say, for example, the Padres). I think the Unit will be a bit too much for them.

[savage1]

Hows this for a scenario?-TB beats Randy Johnson tonight 10-0, and then when everyone gets excited about this team, they turn around and lose seven in a row starting on Saturday.
Obviously an exaggeration but I think all of us have seen scenarios like this unfold the past.

[GermanBettor]

Good luck,

although I think that THIS way to handicap is doomed...
Frankly, I do not see any handicapping at all!

Anyways, good luck.

[griswold]

i would normally not respond to a shot, but if focusing on an undervalued team that is hot and wins night after night while getting + juice is not handicapping, what is?

In all my (way too many years) of doing this, the one thing I have learned in sports wagering is VALUE. A team at +210 that goes a mere one out of three for you in a weekend series still makes you a teeny profit (presuming it is a dog in the other two games as well). If that team wins two of three, you make solid money and a three game sweep puts you in the clams! Tampa has won eight in a row. Not taking note of that is what is bad handicapping.

As for tonight, I hate going against Randy Johnson but I'll take +210 with a hot team and a pitcher who has the SAME Era as Johnson. The proper line on this game indeed would favor Arizona but it should be more like -145 than -240. That's value and I think it's a solid way to handicap. Tampa Bay has been very good to me the last 2 1/2 weeks or so and riding a hot team is a very sure way to go, as long as you recognize when the hot streak is over.

[SonOfGroo]

Well done Griswold !!!

I don't know how anyone here has the nerve to challenge you on this one ?

Ok, so the Unit hands them a loss tonight, but 8-1 and plenty of momentum could take the run much further !!! ..... Then again, the Unit is 2-3 at home with a 3.52 ERA ..... Halama could come up with the win ??? ..... Let's face it Pinella is no mug !!!

The way we are all having our butts kicked here lately , I'm glad someone has spotted some value ..... as you say, taking 3's on a couple is far better than chasing 1.4's and 1.5's with hot and cold teams like the Soxs (sorry Sox's fans, nothing personal).

Well done Griswold , it takes a strong character to speak your mind ..... I admire you !!!

Good luck

SoG

[Okie Bob]

Good Luck Gris

Go for the streak-Good way to bet bases!

Winners are smilin; losers say deal!

Keep smilin!

OB

[Spiccoli]

Hell, take Tampa on the Run Line!

That's what I did! Love it!

[thesandman]

The Tampa Bay Story - Starts With My May 22 Post

I was rushing to post before the T. Bay game started and I forgot to add, that yesterday was the very first time this season Tampa Bay won 2 games in a row and part of the reason I like them to win again today.

Griswold. I've written before about why I'm playing Tampa Bay so often, but you may have missed it.

I posted the above post here on May 22nd at 9:14 AM. That was the day I made my first play on Tampa Bay and have played on them to win almost every game since then. My "book" was able to tell me that between May 22nd and yesterday, I did not make any bet on the Tampa Bay games of 5/28, 5/29, 5/30. On 6/9 and 6/10 I bet against Tampa Bay and every other game, all 23 of them, I bet on Tampa Bay. I can't say for sure that I posted my plays here every single day and my shoulder and arm pain keeps me from going back to check, but I was able check my posts here for the period May 22 - May 25 and sure enough, I posted a play on Tampa Bay each of those four days. Anyone that wants to go back and check my posts after May25, that's fine with me. If you find I was wrong, please let me know.

The bottom line is you found a good thing Griswold, although you have missed out on about three weeks of profits. How long it will keep lasting, who knows. I do need to caution everyone that this is not as simple as some may make it sound. My decision on when to bet on Tampa Bay, or any team for that matter, depends on who they are playing and how the other team has been playing. That's why during this great Tampa Bay run, I actually bet against them twice.

Dinner time. Hope this didn't confuse anyone. If so, please let me know. My TBay play tonight is at +200. I think there are better prices out there that what I got, but the main thing is that they win, whatever the price.

[BigMike]

I got them at + 210 with the local. I'm sure everyone is pounding Zona with Randy on the mound!

[BigMike]

Let's get it in!!

[griswold]

This is too easy

+210 in a cakewalk. The Devil Rays are simply being underpriced. Nine wins in a row. No line yet for Saturday because of uncertain Arizona starter but it could be Andrew Good, who is anything but good. Mostly out of the bullpen this year, he's 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA. Tampa, meanwhile, goes with Dewon Brazleton, the number three pick in the draft a few years ago who sucked last year but has two fine outings since called up this year with an ERA of 1.54. Arizona can't hit and Tampa is not losing. While I haven't seen a line yet, I wouldn't be shocked if the game is even. It should be Tampa -145. Keep riding the horse. Play no other game.

[savage1]

I didn't play the game tonight at all but may play Arizona tomorrow using the shell game and emotional theory-TB defeats Randy Johnson and then against a lesser pitcher loses( at least on Saturday).
I am not saying tomorrow starts a losing streak(I was only kidding about that in other posts), but if I play the game tomorrow, I think it is a great spot for Arizona.
If TB wins tomorrow, then I would play TB(not Arizona) on Sunday because streak may then continue if no emotional letdown on Saturday.

[CoverBoy]

Griswold

Way to go !! Ride the streaking hot team ... The key is knowing when to get off them . ... Very sharp playing ... and we salute you .

[thesandman]

Griswold. I'm glad to see you have been winning on Tampa and I certainally don't want to spoil your fun, but please don't imply that "This is so easy". I wouldn't want to see anyone get hurt thinking they could blindly play one team no matter what. As I wrote in this thread before, Tampa has been in a great scheduling situation where they have been playing teams that in my system are "play against" teams. Unfortunially, these situations don't happen nearly as often as I would like and I can't remember a single team, like Tampa Bay, scheduled to play almost nothing but "play against" teams for such a long period of time. And to top it off, Tampa has done as expected and won almost all of these games.

I won a dime on them tonight at +200 and will be playing on them tomorrow but please everyone, check on both teams before making a play on Tampa Bay.