Nfl 2021-2022 football season previews-news-notes-picks-rumors !

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
Game Time(ET) Pick Units

BAL at LV 08:15 PM
BAL -3.5
U 50.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

2021-2022 Season

NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP

WLT Pct Units Rank

ATS Picks ..........8-8-0 ..........50.00%..........- 4.40

O/U Picks ..........3-4-0 ..........42.85%...........-7.00

Totals.............11-12-0............47,82%.........- 11.40


BEST BETS:

ATS Picks.......... 3-5-0............ 37.50% .............-12,50

O/U Picks.......... 6-6-0............. 50.00%............ - 3.00

Totals...............9-11-0..............45.00%............- 15.50

[Udog]

Hot and Not Report - Week 2
Matt Blunt

It's looking like it could be a mixed bag of results from last week's Hot and Not piece, as Baltimore needs a win on MNF to just get a 2-2 SU split on that 24-6-1 SU run playoff teams had vs non-playoff teams in Week 1. An 'under' also cashing on MNF would put the 'unders' in games featuring AFC playoff teams at 4-1 pushing that to a 4-15 O/U run the past few years and something to keep in mind next season.

Hopefully we can find a week were both findings can hit at a nice pace, and with this week's TNF combatants – New York Giants and Washington – already starting out 0-1 SU and ATS, it didn't take long for the memory bank to pull up this piece from Week 8 a year ago.

For consistency sake we will keep that to the latter half of this piece as the rest of the year (skipping the Ravens debacle missing TNF with games on every other day of the week) didn't bring as much success but didn't do anything to persuade against it either.

Instead, we will start with a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS run that goes all the way back to the 2012 season. My apologies Lions fans.

Who's Hot

Fading NFL teams that scored 30+ points and LOST SU in Week 1 you are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS since 2012

Call this the “shoot your shot and miss” theory if you'd like, but NFL teams that have things clicking at least offensively to open a season (scoring 30+) but end up with a loss, generally need at least a week to find “it” again.

The New Orleans Saints organization has been the most frequent member of this club having been involved in Week 1 losses where they scored 30+ in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. The 2018 team accounted for the only outright win in this group (21-18 over Cleveland), but the -9.5 points the Saints were laying that day never was threatened. The 2016 team lost 16-13 to Tennessee as -3.5 favorites, while 26-24 and 35-27 losses to Cleveland and Carolina in 2014 and 2012 respectively saw the Saints lose outright as favorites both times.

You can't completely hate on the Saints though, as New Orleans was the last franchise to buck this trend when they beat Chicago 30-13 in 2011 after scoring 34 in a Week 1 loss. Last year, we saw the Vikings and Panthers each lose again in Week 2 after scoring 30+ in their opener, and each of them lost their Week 2 game by at least 14 points.

None of that is good news for the Detroit Lions (+10.5 @ Green Bay) in Week 2, as their heroic efforts to try get a backdoor cover like HC Dan Campbell had boosters to impress puts the Lions in this dreaded “shoot your shot” role this week. Visiting an angry and destined to look exponentially better QB Aaron Rodgers at home on top of it. We also can't forget about the fact that this will also be rookie HC Dan Campbell's first road game as the boss, something we saw go 2-2 SU in Week 1 (NYJ/JAX with losses, LAC/PHI with wins), but is still 33-53 SU since 2002.

The Lions will be the biggest underdog of any of the former teams in this Week 1 loss 30+ role which could put a damper on that perfect ATS run, but last year's Carolina team at +7.5 vs Tampa were the biggest underdogs previously and that game was 21-0 for Tampa Bay at halftime (31-17 win).

Rodgers and the Packers are going to be the topic of a lot of negative sentiment this week in the news cycle, and if it starts bleeding into this line moving Detroit's way, it's going to be impossible to leave the Packers alone. Green Bay on MNF is usually about as popular as it gets, but it will be tougher to reach that stage after what Green Bay showed in Week 1 and it discussed every day until their next game is played.

But Rodgers off an awful loss is something I'm only going to want to back, and with it being the Lions on the other side with a rookie HC making his road debut, Detroit already projected as a bad team, and the Lions in a post-Week 1 role that no NFL franchise has covered any point spread in for nine seasons?

Sign me up for the Packers this week.

Who's Not

Backing teams before playing a TNF game was 7-15 SU and 7-14-1 ATS overall last season. It was 2-12 SU and 3-10-1 ATS through Week 9 of 2020. It is 0-2 SU and ATS so far in 2021.

With a loss by Washington already in the books early on the Week 1 Sunday slate, and the Giants falling further and further behind in their game against Denver in the afternoon, this run in recent years of fading teams before a TNF appearance quickly came to mind.

The overall 7-15 SU and 7-14-1 ATS record for franchises the week prior to playing a TNF game last year (ignored all Thanksgiving Day games with Dallas/Detroit and the scheduled Baltimore/Dallas TNF game last year) didn't finish strong in the slightest given how good this idea worked early in the year, and if you were to think about possible reasons why that would have been the case, maybe this is a betting angle we only look to do for the first 10 weeks or so going forward.

Thinking of possible reasons why that would be the case does lead to thoughts of teams/players still looking to establish their “normal” weekly routines for the season early on, and throwing in one of these short week TNF games does throw a big wrench into that concept. Guys may be spending that previous week simultaneously digesting info on two different teams (their Sunday opponent and then the TNF opponent) and that could be somewhat behind it as well. This week it calls on fading the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans before their Week 3 TNF date.

Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor helped lead his Houston Texans to a Week 1 upset over the Jacksonville Jaguars. (AP)

Who knows, maybe it's one of those things that is just completely random in the NFL and doesn't need reasoning to explain why it continues to work. Some of these scenarios brought up in these weekly pieces will be like that and they'll be cast aside as “worthless” by many because of how random they seem to be. That's all well and good, I completely get that.

But if you believe in the common assumption/belief/fact in the sports betting world that more than 90% of bettors (or let's say “heavy majority if actual %'s can't be agreed upon) lose in this racket long term, let me ask you this - especially when you consider that 95-99% of the content in the sports betting industry is so heavy in player-based analysis (injury reports, advanced stats, what players did earlier in the season etc).

How long does it take for someone to possibly consider that those two things are more directly correlated than anyone wants to reasonably believe, and that doing one (breaking down games with player/injury analysis) could be the leading factor behind the other? (90% of bettors losing long term).





 

[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 2
Bruce Marshall








 

[Udog]

WASHINGTON is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after a loss in the last 3 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after a win by 14 or more pts. in the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games after an upset win since 1992.

CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

LAS VEGAS are 5-24 ATS (-21.4 Units) after a home upset win since 1992.

MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

LA RAMS are 102-131 ATS (-42.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

NEW ENGLAND is 37-17 ATS (18.3 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.

ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

ATLANTA is 38-18 ATS (18.2 Units) in road games after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

SEATTLE is 51-28 ATS (20.2 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

LA CHARGERS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs in the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 34-17 ATS (15.3 Units) in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

DETROIT is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.





 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 2

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Trend Report
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NY Giants @ Washington
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

Cincinnati @ Chicago
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Chicago's last 19 games at home

Buffalo @ Miami
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Buffalo

Houston @ Cleveland
Houston
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

New England @ NY Jets
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games

Denver @ Jacksonville
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

San Francisco @ Philadelphia
San Francisco
San Francisco is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

LA Rams @ Indianapolis
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Indianapolis is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home

Las Vegas @ Pittsburgh
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
Las Vegas is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

New Orleans @ Carolina
New Orleans
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games

Minnesota @ Arizona
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Tennessee @ Seattle
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee

Dallas @ LA Chargers
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
LA Chargers
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Kansas City @ Baltimore
Kansas City
Kansas City is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Kansas City is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Detroit @ Green Bay
Detroit
Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home


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? 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2





 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 2

Thursday game
NY Giants (0-1) @ Washington (0-1)
— Giants ran ball for 60 yards; they were outgained 420-314 by Denver.
— On three drives to red zone, Giants scored only 3 points.
— Last four years, Giants are 20-7 ATS as road underdogs.
— Giants are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 road openers.
— Last three years, Giants are 7-2 ATS in NFC East road tilts.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.

— QB Fitzpatrick got hurt; Heinicke (11-15/122 LW) gets his 2nd NFL start.
— Chargers outgained Washington 424-259 last week.
— Chargers converted 14-19 on 3rd down against them LW.
— Last five years, Washington is 5-10 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Last 3+ years, Washington is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

— Giants won last five series games, last three by 3 or less points, or in OT.
— Giants won last three visits here, by 24-6-3 points.
— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.


 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 2

Sunday games
New Orleans (1-0) @ Carolina (1-0)
— Saints pasted Green Bay 38-3 LW; Winston threw 5 TD passes.
— Saints are 18-6 ATS in last 24 games on natural grass.
— Last 3 years, New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in NFC South road games.
— Saints are 2-9 ATS in last 11 road openers.
— Saints had five assistant coaches test positive for COVID this week.
— Last 5 years, New Orleans is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite.

— Panthers held Jets to 45 yards rushing, beat them 19-14 LW.
— Panthers outgained Jets 381-252, led 16-0 at halftime.
— Darnold threw for 279 yards in his Carolina debut.
— Last two years, Carolina is 0-6 ATS at home vs NFC South rivals.
— Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Panther home games.
— Last 2 years, Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

— Saints won eight of last nine series games.
— New Orleans won last four visits to Charlotte by average of 30-10.
— Underdogs are 5-2 ATS last seven series games.

Houston (1-0) @ Cleveland (0-1)
— Texans ran ball for 160 yards, beat Jaguars 37-21 LW.
— Houston converted 12-21 on third down, were +3 in turnovers.
— Last three years, Texans are 9-6 ATS as road underdogs.
— Texans covered three of last four road openers.
— Over last decade, Houston is 2-3 ATS as double digit underdogs.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten road openers.

— Browns blew 22-10 lead, lost 32-29 at Kansas City LW.
— Browns ran for 153 yards, were -2 in turnovers, only 2-7 on 3rd down.
— Cleveland is 0-7 ATS as a favorite in their home opener.
— Browns are 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games as home favorite.
— Browns were double digit favorite once in last 10 years (W41-24, -10.5)
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.

— Houston won five of last six series games.
— Browns (-4) beat Texans 10-7 LY; both TD’s were in 4th quarter.
— Texans lost three of five visits to Cleveland.

Cincinnati (1-0) @ Chicago (0-1)
— Cincinnati edged Minnesota 27-24 in OT last week.
— Bengals converted only 3-14 on third down vs Vikings.
— Last 20 years; Bengals are 7-2 ATS in Week 2 if they won in Week 1.
— Bengals are 8-13 ATS last 21 games vs NFC opponents.
— Bengals covered six of last seven road openers.
— Over is 10-2 in their last dozen road openers.

— Chicago (+7.5) lost 34-14 in Los Angeles LW.
— Bears are 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
— Last four years, Chicago is 5-8 ATS as home favorite.
— Bears are 2-5 ATS in last seven home openers.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven home openers.
— Dalton started 133 games for Bengals (70-61-2, 2011-19)

— Bears won last two series games, but are 5-6 overall vs Cincy.
— Bengals won four of six visits to Chicago.

Las Vegas (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
— Tough scheduling spot for Raiders, after Monday nite home game.
— Las Vegas threw for 409 yards in their OT win Monday.
— Last two years, Raiders are 7-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— Las Vegas is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Raiders converted 7-15 on 3rd down Monday, Ravens only 3-12.
— Over was 6-2 in Raider road games LY.

— Steelers won opener 23-16 in Buffalo; they were down 10-0 at half.
— Steelers blocked punt for a TD last week.
— Pitt converted only 4-12 on third down, Buffalo 8-18.
— Last 8 years, Pittsburgh is 28-23 ATS as home favorites.
— Pittsburgh is 10-6 ATS last 16 home openers (0-3 last three)
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers.

— Raiders won five of last seven series games; teams last met in ’18.
— Raiders lost 35-3/38-35 in last two visits here; their last win here was in ’09.

Buffalo (0-1) @ Miami (1-0)
— Bills lost opener 23-16 to Steelers LW; they led 10-0 at half.
— Buffalo outgained Steelers 371-252, but had punt blocked for TD.
— Last 3 years, Bills are 5-3 ATS as road favorite.
— Buffalo is 11-8 ATS in last 19 road openers.
— McDermott is 17-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Over was 5-1-2 in Buffalo road games LY.

— Miami won opener 17-16 at New England last week.
— Dolphins were outgained 393-259 in Foxboro LW.
— Last five years, Miami is 14-8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Tagovailoa is 7-3 SU as Miami’s starting QB.
— Dolphins are 6-3 ATS in last nine home openers.
— Over is 11-1 in their last dozen home openers.

— Buffalo won last five series games, four of them by 10+ points.
— Bills waxed Miami 56-26 in Week 17 LY.
— Buffalo won four of last six visits to South Beach.

LA Rams (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
— Rams won opener 34-14; Stafford threw for 321 yards, 3 TD’s.
— Rams averaged 11.6 yards/pass attempt last week.
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in road openers (3-1 ATS).
— Last four years, Rams are 8-8 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-10 ATS as road favorites.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten road openers.

— Colts lost 28-16 at home to Seattle LW.
— Seahawks averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last 5+ years, Indy is 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Wentz is 35-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— Colts are 17-7-1 ATS last 25 games vs NFC opponents.
— Under is 19-14 in their last 33 home games.

— Rams won last two series games, 38-8/46-9.
— Rams split four visits to Indianapolis.
— McVay’s first game as Rams’ coach was 46-9 win over Indy in 2017.

San Francisco (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
— 49ers won opener 41-33 at Detroit; they led 38-10 at one point.
— 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt LW, were minus-2 in turnovers.
— Niners are 5-4 ATS last nine games as road favorite.
— 49ers had eight plays of 20+ yards LW, tied for most in NFL
— Last 4+ years, over is 18-15 in 49er road games.
— 49ers stayed east this week, at Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia.

— Eagles won opener 32-6 in Atlanta, running ball for 173 yards.
— Eagles outgained Falcons 434-260, held Atlanta to 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Philly is only NFL team that hasn’t allowed a play of 20+ yards.
— Last 5 years, Eagles are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs.
— Philly won four of last five home openers.
— Last five years, under is 28-12 in Eagle home games.

— Eagles won seven of last nine series games.
— Philly (+9) won 25-20 @ San Francisco LY.
— 49ers lost three of last four visits to Philadelphia.

Denver (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)
— Denver (-3) won its opener 27-13 at the Giants LW.
— Denver ran for 165 yards, outgained Giants 420-314.
— Last six times they won their opener, Denver also won in Week 2.
— Bridegwater is now 27-24 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last 4 years, Broncos are 4-6 ATS as road favorites.
— Last 3+ years, under is 16-9 in Denver road games.

— Jaguars (-3) were minus-3 in turnovers, lost 37-21 in Houston LW.
— Texans converted 12-21 on 3rd down, outgained Jaguars 449-395.
— Last two years, Jacksonville is 5-7 ATS as home underdogs.
— Jaguars covered their last four home openers (2-2 SU)
— Rookie QB Lawrence threw for 332 yards in his NFL debut.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home openers.

— Jaguars are 7-6 overall vs Denver.
— Home teams lost five of last seven series games.
— Broncos lost three of last five visits to Jacksonville.

New England (0-1) @ NJ Jets (0-1)
— Patriots (-3) lost opener 17-16 at home to Miami LW.
— Patriots outgained Dolphins 393-259, scored 13 points on four red zone drives.
— Last three years, Patriots are 8-10 ATS as road favorites.
— New England won/covered four of last five road openers.
— Patriots haven’t been 0-2 since 2001.
— Under 7-2 last nine road openers.

— Jets have new coach, new QB.
— Starting QB is rookie Wilson, from BYU.
— Jets started 0-2 three of last four years.
— Last four years, Gang Green is 14-8-2 ATS as home dogs.
— Jets are 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.

— New England won last ten series games.
— Six of their last seven series wins were by 14+ points.
— Patriots won last five visits here (three by 7 or less points)

Minnesota (0-1) @ Arizona (1-0)
— Vikings (-3) lost opener 27-24 in OT at Cincinnati.
— Minnesota threw ball for 336 yards, gave up 149 yards on ground.
— Last four years, Vikings are 0-4 SU/ATS in Week 2.
— Last five years, Minnesota is 8-13 ATS as road underdog.
— Last five years, Vikings are 11-13 ATS on natural grass.
— Over is 10-7 in Minnesota’s last 17 road games.

— Arizona (+3) crushed Tennessee 38-13 in its opener.
— Cardinals outgained Titans 416-251, had 17-yard edge in field position.
— Redbirds scored five TD’s on 11 drives last week.
— Last three years, Arizona is 2-7 ATS as home favorites.
— Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in last five home openers
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine home openers.

— Minnesota won five of last six series games.
— Vikings lost last three trips to Arizona; their last win here was in ’97.
— Home side won last seven series games.

Atlanta (0-1) @ Tampa Bay (1-0)
— Falcons got pummeled 32-6 at home last week.
— Eagles outgained them 434-260, running for 173 yards.
— Falcons are only NFL team that hasn’t had a play of 20+ yards.
— Last four years, Atlanta is 8-12 ATS as road underdog.
— Falcons are 4-10 ATS in last 14 road openers.
— Under is 6-2 in Atlanta’s last eight road openers.

— Buccaneers (-9) won opener 31-29 over Dallas last Thursday.
— Tampa Bay threw 50 passes, ran ball only 14 times LW.
— Buccaneers turned ball over four times (-3) LW.
— Three of their four TD drives were less than 60 yards.
— Last 7+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-19-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Over is 10-6 in their last sixteen home games.

— Tampa Bay won last three series games, by 13-4-17 points.
— Falcons won four of last five visits to Tampa.
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS last ten series games.

Tennessee (0-1) @ Seattle (1-0)
— Tennessee got spanked 38-13 at home by Arizona LW.
— Titans were outgained 416-251; Henry ran for only 58 yards.
— Last three years, Tennessee is 7-5 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last 6+ years, Titans are 14-10-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Titans are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine road openers.

— Seahawks (-3) won opener 28-16 at Indianapolis.
— Seattle ran for 140 yards, allowed only one play of 20+ yards.
— Seattle is 11-8-2 ATS in last 21 games as home favorites.
— Seahawks are 14-4 ATS in last 18 home openers.
— Seattle is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.
— Under is 16-3-1 in last 20 home openers.

— Seahawks won six of last eight series games.
— Titans lost seven of nine visits to Seattle.
— Last eight series games were decided by 7 or fewer points.

Dallas (0-1) @ LA Chargers (1-0)
— Dallas lost opener 31-29 in Tampa; Prescott threw for 403 yards.
— Cowboys lost despite being +3 in turnovers- they were 9-17 on 3rd down.
— Dallas scored only 12 points on four red zone drives LW.
— Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 6-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Dallas threw 58 passes, ran ball 18 times LW.
— Cowboys have three extra days to prep, playing on Thursday LW.

— Chargers (+1) won opener 20-16 at Washington.
— Bolts converted 14-19 third down plays last week.
— Chargers outgained Washington 424-259, throwing for 334 yards.
— Last three years, Bolts were 3-13-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Chargers are 7-4 ATS last 11 home openers.
— This is Chargers’ first game at SoFi Stadium with fans.

— Chargers won last three series games.
— Dallas won four of its last six visits to San Diego.

Kansas City (1-0) @ Baltimore (0-1)
— Chiefs (-5.5) beat Cleveland 32-29 in their opener.
— Chiefs were outgained 457-397, were +2 in turnovers.
— KC averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, Browns 11.5.
— Last six years, Chiefs are 17-11-1 ATS as road favorites.
— KC won last four road openers (3-1 ATS).
— Over 4-2 in their last six road openers.

— Baltimore lost opener 33-27 (OT) in Las Vegas Monday nite.
— Ravens were outgained 491-406; Carr threw for 435 yards.
— Last three years, Ravens are 7-0-1 ATS as a single-digit dog.
— Last five years, Baltimore is 4-1 ATS as home dogs.
— Last three years, Ravens are 5-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Ravens have been 0-2 once since 2006.

— Chiefs won last four series games (average total, 53.5)
— Chiefs won five of last six visits to Baltimore.
— Kansas City scored 32 ppg in last four series games.

Monday game
Detroit (0-1) @ Green Bay (0-1)
— Lions lost opener 41-33 LW, after trailing 38-10.
— 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt against them.
— Goff threw for 338 yards in his Detroit debut.
— Last three years, Detroit is 9-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
— Goff is 0-8 SU (1-7 ATS) with coach other than McVay.

— Green Bay got whacked 38-3 by New Orleans LW.
— Packers ran ball for only 43 yards; they were minus-3 in turnovers.
— Green Bay was one of two teams not to score TD last week.
— Last two years, Packers were 10-6 ATS as home favorites.
— Green Bay is 11-3 ATS in last 14 home openers.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four home openers.

— Packers won last four series games (42-21/31-24 LY)
— Lions split their last six visits to Lambeau Field.
— Goff lost playoff game 32-18 here last year.


 

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 16
Game Time(ET) Pick Units

NYG at WAS 08:20 PM
WAS -3.5
O 40.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

2021-2022 Season

NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP

WLT Pct Units Rank

ATS Picks ..........8-9-0 ..........47.05%..........- 9.50

O/U Picks ..........4-4-0 ..........50.00%...........-2.00

Totals.............12-13-0...........48.00%........- 11.50


BEST BETS:

ATS Picks.......... 3-7-0............ 42.85% .............-23.50

O/U Picks.......... 7-6-0.............53.84%............ + 2.00

Totals..............10-13-0............43.47%............- 21.50


UPDATED 09/16

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 2
Vince Akins

Play ON ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Denver at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Broncos are 11-0 ATS since November 13, 2005 as a road favorite when they had at least 34 minutes time of possesion last game.

Play AGAINST ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (4:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Buccaneers are 0-10-1 ATS since November 30, 2008 at home coming a win where they committed at least two turnovers.

Over OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Dolphins are 15-0 OU since December 2015 when they won by 1-5 points last game and their opponent did not lose by more than 24 points in their last game.

Under OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Raiders are 0-9 OU since December 13, 2015 on the road coming off a home game where they forced at least 2 turnovers.

Super System of the Week
Matchup: Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- Teams that gained at least 500 total yards in week one are 16-4 ATS in Week two. Active on Las Vegas..

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)


 

[Udog]

NFL Week 2 Money Moves
Micah Roberts

Overreactions abound throughout the NFL Week 2 card with results from Week 1 still fresh in everyone’s mind and the public is betting as if those results are the gateway to winning this week.

The favorites went 3-13 ATS last week helping the sportsbooks to a large first-week win. Nine of the underdogs won outright. The average Joe has to regroup while sharps and the sportsbooks think they have a good read on their NFL ratings.

Of the 15 games we have between Sunday and Monday, three of them are double-digit favorites, seven are favorites of -6 or higher, and seven of them are hovering around 3, either 2.5, 3, or 3.5. The lone game not represented there is the Chiefs going from -3.5 to -4 at Baltimore for the Sunday Night Football game.

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said his 18 books across the local areas of Las Vegas have seen the most public action on the Rams, Cardinals, and Saints.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews gave out the same three teams. This is a combination of ticket counts and parlay money.

The public always seems to derive at the same teams based on what they saw last. After being jilted by their forever loves last week when the Bills, Chiefs, and Packers didn’t cover, they’ve found new loves.

We all want to win and win big which means the most impressive offenses usually get the public attention the next week and it’s amplified after the first week.

The Saints beat the Packers 38-3, the Cardinals won 38-13 at Tennessee, and the Rams won an isolated Sunday night game impressively, 34-14 against the Bears. That’s it, the psychological profile of the average Joe NFL bettor.

What about the popular regulars like the Chiefs and Bills?

“The public is on the Chiefs and Bills, just not as much as those three, but close,” said McCormick.

The public hates the Ravens this week more than the Chiefs so the Chiefs are still in even though they didn’t cover, but did come back to win at home against the Browns last week.

So what about the Packers this week after the Saints exposed Aaron Rodgers for still being in vacation mode?

No one jumped on the Monday night number where the Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -10.5 and are -11 on Friday. Normally always a Packers supporter, I think we’ll see split sentiment from the public finding reason to take the Lions plus-double-digits.

McCormick says the sharpest play they’ve had this week is on the Eagles, Panthers, and Vikings, all three who are facing opponents coming off impressive wins.

The Saints are -3 -120 at the Panthers, the 49ers are -3 EVEN, and the Cardinals are -3.5 against the visiting Vikings

Andrews at the South Point also has sharp play on the Colts who are getting +3.5 from the visiting Rams.

So you can see what’s going on in Week 2. The sharps and public are severely divided on several games.

The Bills have been bet up from -3 at the Westgate to -3 -120 for their game at Miami. Miami comes off a 17-16 win at New England, the Bills just got upset at home after holding the Steelers to no points in the first half. Miami is content, Buffalo is hungry, embarrassed, motivated, and maybe even desperate for a win. Circa Sports has the Bills -3.5 -105 and the South Point is -3.5, flat, as they are with all their football spreads.

The Texans come off an impressive win as a home dog against the Jaguars, 37-21, and the sportsbooks are still making all the Browns fans lay -13 as the Texans visit.

The Bengals have been bet at +3 at Chicago down to +2.5. One team, the Bengals, looked good last week with a thrilling overtime win against the Vikings while the Bears stuck with Andy Dalton and got killed at Los Angeles. As of Friday, no word if Dalton or rookie Justin Fields will start.

How is it that everyone is so smart with the Bears QB decision but head coach Matt Nagy knows better? Is he watching different game film of Dalton from the past two seasons? No arm, can’t run, and can’t make quick decisions is a bad trio for any QB. Dalton has them all, but he’s a veteran so that helps him better the team.

The NFL is a now league and Nagy appears to be ready to sink the ship just to show he’s in charge and knows better. Bigger and better battles to fight than make the stand for Andy Dalton. First coach to be fired?

The big win by the Raiders means nothing this week at Pittsburgh except betting against the team that won an emotional game Monday night has a short week and plays Sunday at a 10 am PT start time. Short week off an emotional high. Steelers are -6 and -6.5 everywhere with the majority of bet tickets written on them.

The Broncos are getting sent flowers again by the public. Last week’s 27-13 win at the Giants impressed many, especially with QB Teddy Bridgewater converting third downs routinely. Everything fell into place. The Broncos have dropped from -6.5 to -6 at Jacksonville even though hardly anyone is taking the Jaguars.

One of the biggest moves of the week is the Patriots going from -3.5 to -6 for their game at the Jets. Bill Belichick off a loss doesn’t sound as scary a prospect for the opponent without Tom Brady as it did in the old days.

The Cardinals have dropped from 4-point home favorites to -3.5 against the Vikings. The main thing I worry about with the Cards is head coach Kliff Kingsbury being so tolerant in his team making the same dumb penalties over and over. There are no repercussions. It will continue and I'll bet they lose at least four games this season because of it happening at crucial moments.

Perhaps the most interesting game of Sunday is the Cowboys at Chargers which has been an evenly bet game although the Chargers went from -3 to -3.5 EVEN at the Superbook. The SuperBook took a sharp wager on the Chargers to push them off 3.

Stay the course my friends in the public. The books owe you one, all the best.


 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 2[/B]




 

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack
Most games drawing 3+ walks:
160— Barry Bonds
117— Ted Williams
115— Babe Ruth
113— Eddie Yost
95— Rickey Henderson
86— Mickey Mantle

Quote of the Day
“It’s not viewed negatively. We’re a family. We’re not going to discuss the details, but we care. There’s passion. There’s frustration. Those are all emotions that are natural, and those things happen.”
Padres’ manager Jayce Tingler, after tensions bubbled over in San Diego’s dugout Saturday

Sunday’s quiz
In the TV show Magnum PI, where did Thomas Magnum grow up?

Saturday’s quiz
Sun Bowl football game is played in El Paso every December.

Friday’s quiz
Rams have played in four Super Bowls; Kurt Warner started two of them. Vince Ferragamo and Jared Goff started the other two.

************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Alabama 31, Florida 29:
— Gators scored with 3:10 left, failed on 2-point conversion to tie game.
— Total yardage: 440-331, Florida- they ran for 245 yards.
— Alabama converted 7-13 third down plays.

12) Penn State 28, Auburn 20:
— Clifford completed 28-32 passes for 280 yards, two TD’s.
— Auburn converted 10-17 third down plays.

11) Western Michigan 44, Pittsburgh 41:
— WMU threw for 357 yards, was +3 in turnovers in their upset win.
— Pitt QB Pickett threw for 382 yards, six TD’s in losing cause.
— MAC teams are 6-12 ATS as road underdogs, but this was a good win for them.

10) Clemson 14, Georgia Tech 8:
— Game had a 1:52 lightning delay, just before halftime.
— Tech had ball inside Clemson 10 twice in last quarter, scored only 3 points.
— Tech outgained Clemson, 309-284.
— Last year, Tigers beat Tech 73-7.

9) Cincinnati 38, Indiana 24:
— Game swung when Indiana’s best defender got tossed for targeting.
— Trailing 21-17 late in 3rd quarter, Cincy ran kick back 99 yards for a TD.
— Indiana outgained Bearcats, 376-328, but turned ball over four times (-2).

8) BYU 27, Arizona State 17:
— ASU outgained Cougars, 426-361, but turned ball over four times (-2).
— BYU led 21-7 at half; Sun Devils cut it to 21-17 after three.
— BYU WR Romney caught six passes for 95 yards and a TD.

7) This week’s upsets:
— Northern Arizona (+26) 21, Arizona 19
— Western Michigan (+14.5) 44, Pitt 41
— Colorado State (+14.5) 22, Toledo 6
— Fresno State (+11) 40, UCLA 37
— Incarnate Word (+11) 42, Texas State 34
— East Carolina (+10) 42, Marshall 38

6) West Virginia 27, Virginia Tech 21:
— Game ended with Hokies on WVU’s 4-yard line.
— Tech had three drives stall inside WVU’s 10-yard line.
— West Virginia led 27-7 with 2:00 left in third quarter.

5) Wake Forest 35, Florida State 14:
— Seminoles are 0-3 for first time since 1976.
— FSU turned ball over six times (-4).
— Wake outgained Seminoles, 484-317.

4) SMU 39, Louisiana Tech 37:
— SMU scored on a 33-yard Hail Mary on last play.
— Mustangs outgained Tech, 578-483.
— Two QB’s combined for 746 passing yards, 9 TD passes.

3) East Carolina 42, Marshall 38:
— Marshall led 38-21 with 8:00 left in game.
— Pirates scored two TD’s in last 2:31 of game.
— Marshall outgained ECU, 647-563.

2) Fresno State 40, UCLA 37:
— 34 points were scored in last 8:10 of this game.
— Fresno scored on 13-yard TD pass with 0:14 left for the win.
— Bulldogs outgained UCLA, 569-395.

1) San Diego State 33, Utah 31 OT
— Utah scored two TD’s in last 4:16 to force OT.
— San Diego State threw ball for only 44 yards the whole game.
— Took three overtimes for Aztecs to come out on top.