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**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2021, 02:54 AM

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up the first 20 picks of the NFL Draft

— First job tonight was to decide which channel to watch the draft on; NFL Network had a concert on, ESPN had four or five commercials for the NBA. No bueno; back to the Extra Innings package until they start picking players.

— There were reports this afternoon that Aaron Rodgers wants the Packers to trade him, which would be tumultuous.

— Quick reminder that the NFL season is now 17 games long.

— There are tons of people outside on a rainy night in Cleveland to watch all this draft stuff happen; having the draft in Las Vegas seems like a much better idea.

— Well, ESPN made the decision for me; they have Mike Greenberg hosting their coverage, so it is off to the NFL Network.

— It is 8:10 and there is still a damn band playing in Cleveland; start the draft!!! In happier news, Kris Bryant just doubled for the Cubs/Armadillos. Cubs lead 4-0 in the third.

— Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock; Urban Meyer is their new coach. You get the feeling this is an all-or-nothing deal for Meyer, he’ll either win really big or he won’t finish his first season. Whatever, thanks for the Jaguars for getting him off of TV, where he was terrible- zero personality.

— Why is Jacksonville taking the whole 10:00 to make their pick?

— Eric Lauer is pitching for Milwaukee tonight, his first start of the year. Lauer is 14-19, 4.75 in 57 career games (54 starts), but he is 5-0, 2.11 in seven starts against the Dodgers, which makes no sense.

— Daniel Jeremiah just said that when the Jets upset the Rams last year, which put the Jaguars in position to pick first in this draft, that Jacksonville sold a ton of season tickets right after. Its the least the Rams could do for Jacksonville- they traded star CB Jalen Ramsey to the Rams.

— OK, now that Trevor Lawrence is a Jaguar, how long before he starts?

— Jets have a new coach, they traded their QB, they have the #2 pick. Everyone in their draft room has a suit jacket on; things in Jacksonville were way more casual.

With the #2 pick, Gang Green selects Zach Wilson; going from BYU to New Jersey qualifies as worlds colliding.

Someone just called Wilson “…….borderline cocky” Hmmmmm

There is a woman in a Jets sweatshirt sitting in an easy chair behind Roger Goodell’s pedestal.

— It irritates me when I hear an analyst say “He’s a winner” because for every winner, there has to be a loser, and I don’t think anyone is pre-ordained to be a loser.

— 49ers have the third pick in the draft; they take QB Trey Lance, who started 17 games for a I-AA team, playing only one game last year for North Dakota State. Carson Wentz also played for the Bison; what does this mean for Jimmy Garoppolo?

North Dakota State has a third QB in the NFL, Easton Stick, who is a backup with the Chargers, or at least he was before they got Chase Daniel. Must be a fun time to recruit quarterbacks at North Dakota State.

— Great stat they just said on TV; last ten QB’s to win the Super Bowl all threw 1,200+ passes in college; Trey Lance threw 318.

— Atlanta Falcons take TE Kyle Pitts with the 4th pick; his college coach Dan Mullen is sitting there in the draft room with him, getting some free TV time. Matt Ryan must like this pick.

Pitts is the highest drafted tight end ever.

— Bengals take Ja’Marr Chase, the LSU WR who didn’t play last year; he is reunited with his old LSU QB Joe Burrow. Explosive receiver; opting out of last year didn’t cost him any money.

— When was last time the first five picks all went to players on the offensive side of the ball?

— Miami has the 6th pick; they take WR Jaylen Waddle from Alabama, the second WR in row who was wearing sunglasses backstage. Chase took his shades off when he went on stage; Waddle kept his on. Six offensive players in a row, which ties the all-time record.

We are told that Waddle is very fast, a good feature for a WR. Are there slow WR’s?

— Detroit Lions are on the clock; they have a new everything- coach, GM, QB. They’ve won one playoff game in the Super Bowl era; that’s 55 years.

Lions were very good in the 1950’s; they won three titles back then, before I was alive.

People in Detroit’s draft room are hugging each other like they just won the Super Bowl, so they got someone they didn’t think they’d get- OT Penei Sewell from Oregon, which has to make Jared Goff a happier guy. Quarterbacks need their blind side protected.

— Carolina Panthers take CB Jaycee Horn with the 8th pick, the first defensive player taken; he is described as “chippy, competitive; talks a lot on the field”

— 87-year old Bob Uecker still does commercials on Brewers’ TV in Milwaukee for Usinger’s, a sausage company; he is an amazing guy, so funny. Still does Brewers’ home games on the radio.

— Denver Broncos are up next; they take a CB from Alabama whose dad also played in the NFL. Guess they’re serious about starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB this fall, though I also just read a thing on the Interweb about Denver trading for Aaron Rodgers.

They just showed Justin Fields’ family on TV, sitting at home; his parents don’t look happy. Someone needs to tell them that there were six QB’s taken in the 1983 Draft, and Dan Marino was #6 of the six, so you never know what the future will hold.

Yup, Dan Marino was 27th pick in the draft, which is why this is a fascinating process.

They also showed Alabama QB Mac Jones, sitting by himself in the draft room with his phone, probably wondering “Who the bleep told me to come here?!?!?!”

— Dallas Cowboys are on the clock; they traded the pick to Philadelphia, who take DeVonta Smith, the Alabama WR who is also reunited with his college QB, Jalen Hurts.

Not often two division rivals make a trade like that; Eagles only moved up two slots, but they bypassed the Giants, who may have wanted Smith.

— Cowboys got a third round pick to drop back two slots.

— Giants traded the #11 pick to Chicago, which takes Ohio State QB Justin Fields, bad news for Andy Dalton/Nick Foles.

— Dallas finally gets to pick; they take a LB from Penn State, which means Stephen Jones made the pick, not his father, who prefers flashier choices.

— Damn, to drop back nine slots in the draft, Giants got:

— 5th round pick (164th overall) in this draft.

— Bears 4th round pick 2022.

— Bears’ first round pick in 2022.

Seems like a pretty good haul, if they connect with those picks.

— Chargers have a new coach and a young QB; they took a tackle from Northwestern; when you have a good, young QB, you make sure he is well-protected.

— Lot of trades; Jets traded with Minnesota to move up from #23 to #14- they took Alijah Vera-Tucker, a guard from USC. You draft a young QB, you make sure he is well-protected.

— Patriots take QB Mac Jones from Alabama, who was expected to go a lot higher. Belichick and Nick Saban are good friends, so this makes sense.

— With the 16th pick, Arizona Cardinals take Zaven Collins, a LB from Tulsa.

— This is the first time I can remember where the draft was held before the schedule for next year was released- that comes out May 12. Seriously, for like an hour, I put everything aside as soon as the schedule comes out.

I get my second vaccination May 14; when I get home from that, I’ll be looking online for flights and hotel rooms for my first vacation in two years. Have to pick a good NFL weekend, or maybe even two weekends; we’ll see. Football weekends in Las Vegas are lot of fun.

— Las Vegas Raiders took a tackle from Alabama; lot of Crimson Tide guys getting picked.

— Miami Dolphins are picking again; they take a defensive end from Miami FL, who apparently returned punts for his high school team. Must be a very good athlete.

Last year, only 34% of players in the NFL were guys drafted in Rounds 1-3; the GM/scouts are so important in pro football. Thats why Saturday is a very important day- you can find diamonds in the rough at the end of the draft, guys who make a big difference.

— Washington takes a LB from Kentucky; they had taken a defensive lineman in the first round the previous four years, so at least they change things up some.

Washington needs to come up with a nickname, an actual mascot. It can’t be that difficult; as a matter of fact, I’ll do it for them— Washington RedTails, honoring pilots from World War II.

They made a movie about the RedTails; they could keep everything pretty much the same, the team song, the colors, all that. Simple stuff.

— Last item of the night, then I’m off to write the baseball article; with the #20 pick, Giants take Kadarius Toney, a WR from Florida. Graphic says “inconsistent hands” always a solid quality for a receiver.

Oy.

I’ll be back tomorrow, with more of this jocularity. Guy I used to know made fun of me because I like watching the draft; it was freakin’ rude, because we all like different stuff, and that’s what makes life interesting.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2021, 02:55 AM

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up the first 20 picks of the NFL Draft

— First job tonight was to decide which channel to watch the draft on; NFL Network had a concert on, ESPN had four or five commercials for the NBA. No bueno; back to the Extra Innings package until they start picking players.

— There were reports this afternoon that Aaron Rodgers wants the Packers to trade him, which would be tumultuous.

— Quick reminder that the NFL season is now 17 games long.

— There are tons of people outside on a rainy night in Cleveland to watch all this draft stuff happen; having the draft in Las Vegas seems like a much better idea.

— Well, ESPN made the decision for me; they have Mike Greenberg hosting their coverage, so it is off to the NFL Network.

— It is 8:10 and there is still a damn band playing in Cleveland; start the draft!!! In happier news, Kris Bryant just doubled for the Cubs/Armadillos. Cubs lead 4-0 in the third.

— Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock; Urban Meyer is their new coach. You get the feeling this is an all-or-nothing deal for Meyer, he’ll either win really big or he won’t finish his first season. Whatever, thanks for the Jaguars for getting him off of TV, where he was terrible- zero personality.

— Why is Jacksonville taking the whole 10:00 to make their pick?

— Eric Lauer is pitching for Milwaukee tonight, his first start of the year. Lauer is 14-19, 4.75 in 57 career games (54 starts), but he is 5-0, 2.11 in seven starts against the Dodgers, which makes no sense.

— Daniel Jeremiah just said that when the Jets upset the Rams last year, which put the Jaguars in position to pick first in this draft, that Jacksonville sold a ton of season tickets right after. Its the least the Rams could do for Jacksonville- they traded star CB Jalen Ramsey to the Rams.

— OK, now that Trevor Lawrence is a Jaguar, how long before he starts?

— Jets have a new coach, they traded their QB, they have the #2 pick. Everyone in their draft room has a suit jacket on; things in Jacksonville were way more casual.

With the #2 pick, Gang Green selects Zach Wilson; going from BYU to New Jersey qualifies as worlds colliding.

Someone just called Wilson “…….borderline cocky” Hmmmmm

There is a woman in a Jets sweatshirt sitting in an easy chair behind Roger Goodell’s pedestal.

— It irritates me when I hear an analyst say “He’s a winner” because for every winner, there has to be a loser, and I don’t think anyone is pre-ordained to be a loser.

— 49ers have the third pick in the draft; they take QB Trey Lance, who started 17 games for a I-AA team, playing only one game last year for North Dakota State. Carson Wentz also played for the Bison; what does this mean for Jimmy Garoppolo?

North Dakota State has a third QB in the NFL, Easton Stick, who is a backup with the Chargers, or at least he was before they got Chase Daniel. Must be a fun time to recruit quarterbacks at North Dakota State.

— Great stat they just said on TV; last ten QB’s to win the Super Bowl all threw 1,200+ passes in college; Trey Lance threw 318.

— Atlanta Falcons take TE Kyle Pitts with the 4th pick; his college coach Dan Mullen is sitting there in the draft room with him, getting some free TV time. Matt Ryan must like this pick.

Pitts is the highest drafted tight end ever.

— Bengals take Ja’Marr Chase, the LSU WR who didn’t play last year; he is reunited with his old LSU QB Joe Burrow. Explosive receiver; opting out of last year didn’t cost him any money.

— When was last time the first five picks all went to players on the offensive side of the ball?

— Miami has the 6th pick; they take WR Jaylen Waddle from Alabama, the second WR in row who was wearing sunglasses backstage. Chase took his shades off when he went on stage; Waddle kept his on. Six offensive players in a row, which ties the all-time record.

We are told that Waddle is very fast, a good feature for a WR. Are there slow WR’s?

— Detroit Lions are on the clock; they have a new everything- coach, GM, QB. They’ve won one playoff game in the Super Bowl era; that’s 55 years.

Lions were very good in the 1950’s; they won three titles back then, before I was alive.

People in Detroit’s draft room are hugging each other like they just won the Super Bowl, so they got someone they didn’t think they’d get- OT Penei Sewell from Oregon, which has to make Jared Goff a happier guy. Quarterbacks need their blind side protected.

— Carolina Panthers take CB Jaycee Horn with the 8th pick, the first defensive player taken; he is described as “chippy, competitive; talks a lot on the field”

— 87-year old Bob Uecker still does commercials on Brewers’ TV in Milwaukee for Usinger’s, a sausage company; he is an amazing guy, so funny. Still does Brewers’ home games on the radio.

— Denver Broncos are up next; they take a CB from Alabama whose dad also played in the NFL. Guess they’re serious about starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB this fall, though I also just read a thing on the Interweb about Denver trading for Aaron Rodgers.

They just showed Justin Fields’ family on TV, sitting at home; his parents don’t look happy. Someone needs to tell them that there were six QB’s taken in the 1983 Draft, and Dan Marino was #6 of the six, so you never know what the future will hold.

Yup, Dan Marino was 27th pick in the draft, which is why this is a fascinating process.

They also showed Alabama QB Mac Jones, sitting by himself in the draft room with his phone, probably wondering “Who the bleep told me to come here?!?!?!”

— Dallas Cowboys are on the clock; they traded the pick to Philadelphia, who take DeVonta Smith, the Alabama WR who is also reunited with his college QB, Jalen Hurts.

Not often two division rivals make a trade like that; Eagles only moved up two slots, but they bypassed the Giants, who may have wanted Smith.

— Cowboys got a third round pick to drop back two slots.

— Giants traded the #11 pick to Chicago, which takes Ohio State QB Justin Fields, bad news for Andy Dalton/Nick Foles.

— Dallas finally gets to pick; they take a LB from Penn State, which means Stephen Jones made the pick, not his father, who prefers flashier choices.

— Damn, to drop back nine slots in the draft, Giants got:

— 5th round pick (164th overall) in this draft.

— Bears 4th round pick 2022.

— Bears’ first round pick in 2022.

Seems like a pretty good haul, if they connect with those picks.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2021, 02:55 AM

— Chargers have a new coach and a young QB; they took a tackle from Northwestern; when you have a good, young QB, you make sure he is well-protected.

— Lot of trades; Jets traded with Minnesota to move up from #23 to #14- they took Alijah Vera-Tucker, a guard from USC. You draft a young QB, you make sure he is well-protected.

— Patriots take QB Mac Jones from Alabama, who was expected to go a lot higher. Belichick and Nick Saban are good friends, so this makes sense.

— With the 16th pick, Arizona Cardinals take Zaven Collins, a LB from Tulsa.

— This is the first time I can remember where the draft was held before the schedule for next year was released- that comes out May 12. Seriously, for like an hour, I put everything aside as soon as the schedule comes out.

I get my second vaccination May 14; when I get home from that, I’ll be looking online for flights and hotel rooms for my first vacation in two years. Have to pick a good NFL weekend, or maybe even two weekends; we’ll see. Football weekends in Las Vegas are lot of fun.

— Las Vegas Raiders took a tackle from Alabama; lot of Crimson Tide guys getting picked.

— Miami Dolphins are picking again; they take a defensive end from Miami FL, who apparently returned punts for his high school team. Must be a very good athlete.

Last year, only 34% of players in the NFL were guys drafted in Rounds 1-3; the GM/scouts are so important in pro football. Thats why Saturday is a very important day- you can find diamonds in the rough at the end of the draft, guys who make a big difference.

— Washington takes a LB from Kentucky; they had taken a defensive lineman in the first round the previous four years, so at least they change things up some.

Washington needs to come up with a nickname, an actual mascot. It can’t be that difficult; as a matter of fact, I’ll do it for them— Washington RedTails, honoring pilots from World War II.

They made a movie about the RedTails; they could keep everything pretty much the same, the team song, the colors, all that. Simple stuff.

— Last item of the night, then I’m off to write the baseball article; with the #20 pick, Giants take Kadarius Toney, a WR from Florida. Graphic says “inconsistent hands” always a solid quality for a receiver.

Oy.

I’ll be back tomorrow, with more of this jocularity. Guy I used to know made fun of me because I like watching the draft; it was freakin’ rude, because we all like different stuff, and that’s what makes life interesting.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2021, 02:59 AM

Friday’s Den: Schedule notes for NFC teams

Cardinals:
— Three primetime games, all at home.
— Three of first four games are on the road.
— Their last game outdoors is Week 13,

Falcons:
— Play Jets in England in Week 6, have the early Week 6 bye
— Only prime-time game is Week 11 vs New England.
— January 2nd in Buffalo could be dicey for a dome team.

Panthers:
— Sam Darnold faces his old team (Jets) in Week 1.
— Week 3 at Houston is their only primetime game.
— Play division rival Buccaneers in weeks 16/18.

Bears:
— Their odd-numbered games are all on road, even-numbered games all at home
— Three of their four primetime games are on road.
— Play division rival Vikings in weeks 15/18.

Cowboys:
— Play three straight weeks on road, in weeks 13-15.
— Three of their last five games are NFC East road games.
— Have four primetime games, plus they play the Raiders on Thanksgiving.

Lions:
— Only primetime game is week 2 at Green Bay
— Lions visit Rams and old friend Matthew Stafford in week 7.
— Road games at Green Bay/Chicago are in September; they visit Denver in Week 14.

Packers:
— Play primetime games in weeks 2-3, have five night games overall.
— Host Detroit in Week 2, don’t visit the Lions until Week 18.
— Have only six 1:00 games; lot of national TV dates.

Rams:
— First two games are against teams with new QB’s this season.
— Jared Goff and Lions visit in Week 7
— Host Arizona in Week 4, then have Thursday game in Seattle four days later.

Vikings:
— Three of last five games are at night, including games in Chicago/Green Bay.
— Don’t play Bears until Week 15, then play ‘em again in Week 18.
— Host old friend Kevin Stefanski when Browns visit in Week 4.

Saints:
— In Weeks 12-16, play night games four weeks out of five.
— Have five primetime games, only four 4:00 games. Nine 1:00 games.
— Week 6 bye is an early one.

Giants:
— Have three primetime games, all on the road.
— Visit Washington in Week 2, don’t see them again until Week 18.
— Have consecutive December road games in Miami, Los Angeles.

Eagles:
— Five of their last six games are divisional games.
— Play consecutive weeks (12/13) in the Meadowlands, vs Giants/Jets
— Have only two primetime games.

49ers:
— Open @ Detroit/@ Philly; will they just stay east for the week?
— Host Falcons in Week 15, have Week 16 Thursday game in Nashville.
— Got good draw with their 17th game against the Bengals.

Seahawks:
— Play three of first four games on the road.
— Weeks 5-7 are all night games.
— Five of their eight road games are in domes.

Buccaneers:
— Tom Brady takes the Bucs into Foxboro in Week 4.
— Only six 1:00 games; three of them are Weeks 16-18.
— Play division rival Carolina in Weeks 16/18.

Washington:
— Weeks 14-17: Dallas/Philly/Dallas/Philly.
— Play Giants in Week 2, then not again until the season finale.
— Ron Rivera visits his old team (Carolina) in Week 11

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2021, 03:01 AM

Thursday’s Den: Quick thoughts on the 2021 NFL schedule

I’ll have more on the NFL schedule over the next few days, but here are some early thoughts on the 2021 schedule:

— NFL teams will play 17 games this season for the first time; exhibition games have been reduced to three. AFC teams get the extra home game this season.

— Regular season ends January 9th, with games in Buffalo and Cleveland. Have fun!!!

— Jets traded QB Sam Darnold to Carolina this winter; the wise guys who create the schedule created an interesting Week 1 matchup, Jets @ Carolina. Go figure, a coincidence I’m sure.

— Christmas is on a Saturday, Halloween is a Sunday this year; there are two Christmas games. Browns-Packers, Colts-Cardinals. Which casino will I be watching those games in?

— This has nothing to do with football, but Halloween weekend in Las Vegas is tremendous, take my word on that.

— Cowboys-Buccaneers is the Week 1 Thursday game, where the defending champ traditionally opens the next season at home. Home team is 15-3 SU in this game the last 18 years, 11-3-4 against the spread.

— Don’t think the NFL foresees Aaron Rodgers being traded to Denver; Broncos have one game on in prime-time, Green Bay has five.

— NFL doesn’t think much of the Patriots; only three primetime games, one of which is Tom Brady’s return to Foxboro in Week 4.

— Thanksgiving Day slate:
Bears @ Detroit, Raiders @ Dallas, Bills @ New Orleans

— Non-schedule news; Green Bay signed backup QB Blake Bortles, re-uniting him with OC Nathaniel Hackett- they worked together in Jacksonville from 2015-18.

— Division rivals Carolina/Tampa Bay have their two meetings in weeks 16/18.

— I’m totally befuddled that Rams-Lions isn’t a primetime game. Detroit got one game on in primetime, at Green Bay in Week 2. Very surprised by this, seeing how the teams swapped quarterbacks this winter. ESPN obviously didn’t want the game.

Every team got at least one primetime game; eight teams got just one.

— Four teams have the earliest byes, Week 6— Falcons, Saints, Jets, 49ers.

— Four teams have the latest byes, Week 14— Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Eagles.

— Nine teams got the maximum five primetime games.

— Cardinals/Chargers have three prime-time games, all at home, which is odd. Giants got three primetime games, all on the road— they can’t be real happy about that.

I’ll have some notes for each team’s schedule over the next week or so; season doesn’t start until September 9, so there is plenty of time.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2021, 03:17 AM

10) Seven NFL teams have new head coaches this season.

13 teams have new offensive coordinators, 15 have new DC’s.

9) Last two seasons, Chargers were 7-16 in games decided by 8 or fewer points; they were only 9-7 in games they led at halftime, 9-5 in games they led after three quarters, which is why they now have a new coach.

8) Since 2012, Jacksonville Jaguars are 39-105, five fewer wins than any other team (Cleveland).

There is some hope for the Jaguars; of the last seven head coaches to jump from college to the NFL, three of them made the playoffs in their first season.

7) Las Vegas Raiders have had one winning season in last 18 years; never thought I’d see them become one of the NFL’s worst franchises. Over last four years, Raiders ranked 29-30-31-28 in defensive efficiency. Not good.

6) Will having fans back in their stadium help the Minnesota Vikings?

From 2016-19, Vikings were 21-9-3 ATS at home; last year, they were 2-6 ATS.

5) Over last three years, Eagles are 10-18 ATS as a favorite, 7-11 as an underdog. Under is 17-7 in their home games, over 14-7 in their road tilts.

4) Detroit Lions were 14-34 SU last three years; they haven’t won a playoff game since 1991. Last three years, over is 21-10 in their games. Lions are 8-15-1 ATS in last 24 home games.

3) Carolina Panthers have a +12 advantage in rest days between games this season, the most any NFL team has had since 2002.

2) Cowboys play Atlanta in Week 10; figures to be an interesting game, with former Falcons coach Dan Quinn now the defensive coordinator in Dallas. Quinn went 43-42 in 5+ years as Atlanta’s coach, winning the NFC title in 2016. Falcons lost that Super Bowl, blowing 28-3 lead.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2021, 03:20 AM

Monday’s Den: Early season trends for AFC teams

Ravens:
— Won/covered last five season openers
— Won last four season openers by combined 164-19.
— 11-5 ATS in last 16 home openers.
— Under 6-2 last eight home openers.
— Won/covered four of last five road openers.
— Over 9-4-1 last 14 road openers.

Bills:
— Home team won their last six Week 1 games.
— 9-5 ATS last 14 home openers.
— 6-2 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
— 11-8 ATS in last 19 road openers.
— Under 10-7 last 17 road openers.
— Were favored once in last 17 road openers (0-1 ATS)

Bengals:
— Started out 1-0 four of last seven years.
— Won/covered once in last five home openers.
— 3-6-1 ATS as favorite in home openers.
— Under 9-4 last 13 home openers.
— 6-1 ATS last seven road openers.
— Over 9-2 last 11 road openers.

Browns:
— 2-19-1 SU in season openers (1-1-1 last three)
— 5-4 ATS in last 9 home openers, after 1-12 stretch.
— 0-6 ATS all-time as favorite in home openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven home opener.
— 3-5-1 ATS last nine road openers.
— Last five road openers stayed under total.

Broncos:
— Lost last two home openers, both 16-14, after a 27-2 run.
— Last five home openers were decided by total of 11 points.
— 8-4 ATS last dozen home openers.
— Over 8-5-1 last 14 home openers.
— Lost last four road openers, scoring 16.8 ppg.
— 7-10 ATS last 17 road openers.

Texans:
— Lost three of last four home openers, scoring 14.5 ppg.
— 1-5 ATS last six home openers.
— Under 10-6 last 16 home openers.
— Lost five of last six road openers.
— Under 5-1 last six road openers.
— 3-1-1 all-time ATS as favorite in road openers.

Colts:
— Started out 0-1 the last seven years.
— Last five season openers went over total.
— Won last two home openers, covered 3 of last 4.
— Lost nine of last 11 road openers.
— Four of last five road openers went over.
— 4-12-2 ATS last 18 games as underdog in road openers.

Jaguars:
— Won season openers three of last four years.
— Hasn’t been favored in their home opener since 2010.
— Lost seven of last nine home openers.
— Last five home openers went over total.
— Lost 11 of last 13 road openers, but covered last four.
— Under is 12-6 in last 18 road openers.

Chiefs:
— Won last six season openers, covered last four.
— Last five years, scored 33-42-38-40-34 in Week 1.
— Won last five home openers, covered last four.
— Over 4-0-2 last six home openers.
— Won/covered six of last eight road openers.
— Over 4-2 last six road openers.

Raiders:
— Won four of last five season openers.
— Won three of last four home openers.
— 3-6 ATS last 9 tries as a favorite in home openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven home openers.
— 10-3-1 ATS last 14 road openers.
— Since 1997, they’re 1-3 ATS as a favorite in road openers.

Chargers:
— 4-6 ATS last 10 tries as a favorite in home openers.
— Lost three of last four home openers SU.
— Over 14-4 last 18 home openers.
— 6-2-1 ATS last nine road openers.
— 4-0-1 ATS last five Week 1 road games.
— 10-5-1 ATS as an underdog in road openers.

Dolphins:
— Lost four of last six season openers.
— Won/covered six of last nine home openers
— Favored in only 6 of last 17 home openers.
— Over 11-1 last dozen home openers.
— 5-12 SU in last 17 road openers (5-3 ATS last 8)
— Since 1994, under is 22-5 in their road openers (12-0 last 12)

Patriots:
— Started 1-0 in 15 of last 17 seasons.
— Won 7 of last 8 home openers (4-1 ATS last five)
— Under 7-2 last nine home openers.
— Won 7 of last 10 road openers.
— 15-9 ATS last 24 road openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven road openers.

Jets:
— Started 0-1 four of last five years.
— Since 1992, 3-10-1 ATS as favorite in home opener.
— Lost four of last five home openers SU.
— Under 3-1 last four home openers.
— 11-4 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven road openers.

Steelers:
— Opened on road last six years (3-2-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)
— Favored in 19 of last 20 home openers (W15-9, +1.5 in ’10)
— 15-3 SU last 18 home openers (0-3 ATS last three)
— Under 8-4 last dozen home openers.
— 3-1-1 SU last five road openers.
— Under is 7-1 in last eight road openers.

Titans:
— Lost SU last three times they opened season at home.
— 2-5 SU last seven home openers (2-7 ATS last nine)
— Under 6-3 last nine home openers.
— Won 7 of last 8 road openers SU
— Since 2007, 9-1 ATS as underdog in road opener.
— Over 3-1 last four road openers.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-17-2021, 03:24 AM

Tuesday’s Den: Week 1-2 trends for NFC teams

Cardinals:
— 1-3-1 in last five Week 1 games.
— 0-4-1 in last five home openers.
— Under 7-2 last nine home openers.
— 10-3 ATS last 13 road openers.
— 1-4 SU last five road openers.
— Under 10-5 last 15 road openers.

Falcons:
— 1-4 in last five Week 1 games.
— 17-5 ATS in last 22 home openers.
— Since 2004, 8-1 ATS as a favorite in HO’s.
— Over 4-1 last five home openers.
— Lost last three road openers.
— 5-12 ATS last 17 road openers (under 13-4).

Panthers:
— Host Sam Darnold’s old team (Jets) in Week 1.
— Last 2 years, lost 30-27/34-30 at home in Week 1.
— 6-11-1 ATS last 18 home openers.
— Under 16-6-1 last 23 home openers.
— 4-8 ATS last dozen road openers.
— Over 4-1 last five road openers.

Bears:
— 1-6 in last seven Week 1 games.
— 2-5 SU/ATS last seven home openers.
— Under 4-0 last four home openers.
— 4-6 last ten road openers.
— 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
— Under 16-5 last 21 road openers.

Cowboys:
— Under 5-2 last seven Week 1 games.
— Won last four home openers, scoring 35-40 points in last two.
— Over 8-6 last 14 home openers.
— Lost three of last four road openers.
— 10-4 ATS last 14 games as an underdog in road openers.
— Under 6-3 last nine road openers.

Lions:
— Last ten season openers went over the total.
— 0-2-1 SU last three season openers (favored in all 3)
— Lost four of last six home openers.
— Over 8-3 last 11 home openers.
— 3-6 ATS last nine road openers.
— Five of last six road openers went over.

Packers:
— Won last six season openers (5-1 ATS)
— Over 7-3 last ten season openers.
— Won 8 in row, 13 of last 14 home openers (11-3 ATS)
— Under 3-1 last four home openers.
— Won/covered last four Week 1 road games.
— Over 12-3 last 15 road openers.

Rams:
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in Week 1.
— Won/covered last six home openers.
— Under is 4-1 in last five home openers.
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 in road openers, covering last three
— Last four road openers, Rams scored 41-33-30-37 points.
— Over is 3-1 in last four road openers.

Vikings:
— This is first time in 5 years they open on road.
— Won/covered four of last five Week 1 games.
— Won/covered five of last six home openers.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven home openers.
— 0-3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS last four road openers.
— Under 12-5 last 17 road openers.

Giants:
— Started nine of last ten seasons 0-1.
— 1-8 SU, 0-9 ATS last nine home openers.
— Scored 14.2 ppg in last five home openers.
— Under 7-0 last seven home openers.
— Lost 9 of last 11 road openers (3-7-1 ATS)
— Under 4-1 last five road openers.

Saints:
— Lost five of last seven season openers.
— 1-5 ATS in last six home openers.
— Last 3 years, scored 40-30-34 points in home opener.
— Last five home openers went over total.
— 3-12 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Over 9-4 last 13 road openers.

Eagles:
— Won four of last five season openers.
— Won four of last five home openers.
— Won 5 of last 7 Week 1 games on road.
— Despite that, are 3-9 ATS in last 12 home openers.
— Lost last 3 road openers, giving up 27-24-27 points.
— Over 7-4-1 last dozen road openers.

49ers:
— Won 8 of last 10 season openers.
— Under 6-1 last seven season openers.
— Won 7 of last 10 home openers (0-4 ATS last four)
— Under 6-1 last seven home openers.
— Last 2 years, won road opener 31-17/31-13.
— Under 7-4-1 last dozen road openers.

Seahawks:
— Split last six season openers SU.
— Won 17 of last 18 home openers (14-4 ATS)
— Under 16-3-1 last 20 home openers.
— Won last 2 road openers 28-26/38-25, after losing 11 of previous 12.
— 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 road openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven road openers.

Buccaneers:
— Won three of last four Week 1 games.
— Four of last five Week 1 games went over.
— Won/covered three of last four home openers.
— Scored 27+ points in four of last five home openers.
— 7-4 ATS in last 11 road openers.
— Over 4-1 in last five road openers.

Washington:
— Covered last three Week 1 games.
— 1-4 ATS in last five home openers as a dog.
— 2-7 SU in last nine home openers.
— Over 7-3 last ten home openers.
— Covered four of last five road openers.
— Over is 8-4 in last dozen road openers.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-18-2021, 02:52 AM

5) Brandon Staley is the new head coach of the Chargers; five years ago, he was the defensive coordinator at John Carroll U, a D-3 program in Ohio. Life moves fast…….

4) Last three years, New Jersey Jets are 5-19 SU on road, 8-16 ATS; last two years, Jets are 0-4 ATS as a favorite. This year they have a new coach and they figure to be starting a rookie QB, so it could be another long year, but at least one that could build to a positive future.

3) Vikings play their home games in a dome now, but their last two road games this year are at Chicago December 20, at Green Bay January 2nd, both night games. Brilliant scheduling.

2) When Jacksonville Jaguars visit Seattle on Halloween, Seahawks’ last two OC’s will be in the visitors’ coaching booth. Brian Schottenheimer, Darren Bevell both work for the Jaguars now; do they have any special insight into defending Russell Wilson?

**StarDust Bum** · 07-22-2021, 02:42 AM

Thursday’s Den: First draft of my Week 1 NFL article

Dallas @ Tampa Bay
— Last 4 years, Cowboys are 5-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Dallas lost three of last four road openers SU.
— Cowboys are 10-4 ATS last 14 games as a dog in road openers.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven Week 1 games.

— Defending Super Bowl champs are ATS in Week 1 the next year.
— Tampa Bay was 3-2-1 ATS LY as a home favorite.
— Buccaneers won three of last four Week 1 games.
— Bucs won/covered three of last four home openers.
— Tampa scored 27+ points in four of last five home openers.
— Four of their last five Week 1 games went over.

— Dallas won 7 of last 8 series games.
— Cowboys lost 3 of last 5 visits here, scoring 6-0-7 points in losses.
— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.

****************************

Sunday games

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
— Steelers opened on road last six years (3-2-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)
— Steelers are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs.
— Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 SU last five road openers.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight road openers.

— Bills are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as home favorites.
— Home team won their last six Week 1 games.
— Bills are 9-5 ATS last 14 home openers.
— Buffalo is 6-2 ATS as a favorite in home openers.

— Crowd should be mixed for this game; tough day for security guards.
— Bills beat Pittsburgh last two years, after losing previous six meetings.
— Steelers gained only 224 yards, lost 26-15 here LY; Buffalo scored on pick-6.
— Pittsburgh won four of last five visits to Orchard Park.

NJ Jets @ Carolina
— Jets have new coach, new QB.
— Jets started 0-1 four of last five years.
— Last five years, Gang Green is 10-22-2 ATS as road dogs.
— Jets are 11-4 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven road openers.

— Last 2 years, Panthers lost 30-27/34-30 at home in Week 1.
— Last 5 years, Carolina is 10-16 ATS as a home favorite.
— Panthers are 6-11-1 ATS last in 18 home openers.
— Under 16-6-1 last 23 home openers.

— Sam Darnold played 3 years for the Jets, going 13-25 as their QB.
— Panthers are 3-2 in last five series games, scoring 30+ in all three wins.
— Jets lost 30-20/30-3 in last two visits to Charlotte.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta
— New coach; 2nd-year QB started four games (1-3) LY.
— Eagles won four of last five season openers.
— Last 5 years, Eagles are 12-13 ATS as road underdogs.
— Philly won 5 of last 7 Week 1 games on road.
— Over 7-4-1 in their last dozen road openers.

— New coach, new GM for Atlanta.
— Last 5 years, Falcons are 15-18 ATS as home favorites.
— Falcons lost four of last five Week 1 games.
— Atlanta is 17-5 ATS in last 22 home openers.
— Since 2004, Falcons are 8-1 ATS as a favorite in HO’s.
— Over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five home openers.

— Eagles are 11-5 in last 16 series games.
— Philly lost last three visits here, by 4-2-4 points.
— For what its worth, Matt Ryan is from Philadelphia

Minnesota @ Cincinnati
— Last three years, Vikings are 6-3 ATS as road favorites.
— Minnesota won/covered four of last five Week 1 games.
— Vikings are 0-3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS last four road openers.
— This is first time in 5 years Vikings open on road.
— Under 12-5 in their last 17 road openers.

— Cincinnati started out 1-0 four of last seven years.
— Bengals are 8-7-1 ATS last 16 games as home dogs.
— Cincy won/covered once in last five home openers.
— Bengals are 3-6-1 ATS as favorite in home openers.
— Under is 9-4 in their last 13 home openers.

— Coach Zimmer was Bengals’ DC from 2008-13.
— Home side won last four series games.
— Vikings lost last two visits here, 42-14/37-8.

San Francisco @ Detroit
— Last 2 years, 49ers won road opener 31-17/31-13.
— 49ers won 8 of last 10 season openers.
— Niners are 5-3 ATS last eight games as road favorite.
— Under 6-1 last seven season openers.
— Under 7-4-1 last dozen road openers.

— New coach, new GM, new QB for Lions.
— Pretty sure Detroit will try hard to run ball a lot.
— 0-2-1 SU last three season openers (favored in all 3)
— Lost four of last six home openers.
— Over 8-3 last 11 home openers.
— Lions’ last ten season openers went over the total.

— 49ers won 8 of last 9 series games.
— Favorites are 4-0-1 ATS in last five series games.
— Niners won 2 of last 3 visits here, losing 32-15 in last visit, in 2015.

Arizona @ Tennessee
— Arizona is 1-3-1 SU in last five Week 1 games.
— Cardinals lost 4 of last 5 road openers SU, but covered 10 of last 13.
— Last 2 years, Arizona is 6-3-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under 10-5 last 15 road openers.

— Tennessee lost SU last three times they opened season at home.
— Titans are 2-5 SU last seven home openers (2-7 ATS last nine)
— Last five years, Tennessee is 14-11-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine home openers.

— Arizona won three of last four series games.
— Titans lost last meeting 12-7 in desert in 2017.
— Redbirds split last two visits here; Tennessee gained 460-531 TY, though.

Seattle @ Indianapolis
— Seahawks split last six season openers SU.
— Seattle is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs.
— Seattle won last 2 road openers 28-26/38-25, after losing 11 of previous 12.
— Seahawks are 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 road openers.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven road openers.

— Colts started out 0-1 the last seven years.
— First game for Carson Wentz as a Colt.
— Last three years, Indy is 9-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Won last two home openers, covered 3 of last 4.
— Last five season openers went over total.

— Colts won three of last five series games.
— Seattle lost 34-28/34-17 in last two visits here.
— Seahawks won last meeting 46-18 at home, in 2017.

LA Chargers @ Washington
— New coach, new OC for Chargers.
— Bolts are 8-4-2 ATS last 14 games as road favorites.
— Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS last five Week 1 road games.
— Bolts are 6-2-1 ATS last nine road openers
— Bolts are 10-5-1 ATS as underdogs in road openers.

— QB Fitzpatrick gets to start for another NFL team.
— Washington is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as home underdogs.
— Washington covered last three Week 1 games.
— Washington is 1-4 ATS in last five home openers as a dog.
— Washington is 2-7 SU in last nine home openers.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten home openers.

— Chargers won four of last five series games.
— Bolts split last two visits here, losing last visit, in 2013.

Jacksonville @ Houston
— First NFL game for Urban Meyer figures to be interesting.
— Jaguars won season openers three of last four years.
— Last 3 years, Jacksonville is 8-12-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Jaguars lost 11 of last 13 road openers, but covered last four.
— Under is 12-6 in their last 18 road openers.

— HC Culley is also new head coach; he’s never been a coordinator.
— Texans are 9-14-1 ATS last 24 games as home favorites.
— Texans lost three of last four home openers, scoring 14.5 ppg.
— Houston is 1-5 ATS in last six home openers.
— Under 10-6 in their last 16 home openers.

— Texans won last six series games.
— Jaguars are 6-3 ATS in last nine visits to Houston.
— Two guys who have never been NFL head coaches before.

Cleveland @ Kansas City
— Browns are 2-19-1 SU in season openers (1-1-1 last three)
— Last 5 years, Cleveland is 12-19-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Browns are 3-5-1 ATS last nine road openers.
— Last five road openers stayed under total.

— Chiefs won last six season openers, covered last four.
— Last five years, they scored 33-42-38-40-34 in Week 1.
— Last four years, Chiefs are 20-14 ATS as home favorites.
— KC won last five home openers, covered last four.
— Over 4-0-2 in their last six home openers.

— Chiefs beat Cleveland 22-17 here in LY’s playoffs (led 19-3 at half).
— Chiefs won last four series games, three by 6 or fewer points.
— Browns covered last four visits to Arrowhead.

Miami @ New England
— Since 1994, under is 22-5 in Miami’s road openers (12-0 last 12)
— Dolphins lost four of last six season openers.
— Dolphins are 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as road underdogs.
— Miami is 5-12 SU in last 17 road openers (5-3 ATS last 8)

— Patriots started 1-0 in 15 of last 17 seasons.
— New England won 7 of last 8 home openers (4-1 ATS last five)
— Last five years, Patriots are 27-15-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Under 7-2 last nine home openers.

— These teams split their season series the last four years.
— New England covered first meeting the last six years.
— Dolphins lost 11 of last 12 visits to Foxboro (1-8 ATS last nine).

Green Bay @ New Orleans
— Green Bay won last six season openers (5-1 ATS)
— Packers are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as road underdogs.
— Green Bay won/covered last four Week 1 road games.
— Over is 12-3 in their last 15 road openers.

— Saints have new QB for first time since 2005.
— Last 3 years, Saints are 10-14 ATS as home favorites.
— New Orleans lost five of last seven season openers.
— Saints are 1-5 ATS in last six home openers.
— Last 3 years, scored 40-30-34 points in home opener.
— Saints lost five of last seven season openers.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Packers won 37-20 here LY, their first win in last four visits to Superdome.

Denver @ NY Giants
— Denver lost last four road openers, scoring 16.8 ppg.
— Last 5 years, Broncos are 18-22 ATS on the road.
— Broncos are 7-10 ATS last 17 road openers.

— Giants started nine of last ten seasons 0-1.
— Last four years, Giants are 9-22-1 ATS at home.
— Big Blue is 1-8 SU, 0-9 ATS last nine home openers.
— Giants scored 14.2 ppg in last five home openers.
— Under 7-0 in their last seven home openers.

— Denver won three of last five series games.
— Broncos split last two series games played here.

Chicago @ LA Rams
— Chicago is 1-6 in last seven Week 1 games.
— Bears are 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
— Last five years, Chicago is 10-16-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Bears are 4-6 SU in last ten road openers.
— Under 16-5 in their last 21 road openers.

— First game for Stafford as Rams’ QB, after 12 years in Detroit.
— Rams also have a new defensive coordinator.
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in Week 1.
— Rams won/covered last six home openers.
— Under McVay, LA is 14-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Under is 4-1 in last five home openers.

— First game with fans at SoFi Stadium.
— Bears won six of last nine series games, but lost 24-10 here LY.
— Chicago’s only TD in that game was scored by the defense.
— Bears lost three of last four road series games, losing by 14-10-21 points.

Baltimore @ Las Vegas
— Baltimore won/covered last five season openers
— Ravens won/covered four of last five road openers.
— Baltimore is 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games as road favorites.
— Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road openers.

— Las Vegas won four of last five season openers.
— Raiders won three of last four home openers.
— Last three years, Raiders are 7-7 ATS as home underdogs.
— Las Vegas is 3-5 ATS in last eight tries as a dog in HO’s.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.

— First game with fans at Allegiant Stadium.
— Ravens won six of last eight series games.
— Ravens split last four trips to Oakland; this is their first visit to Las Vegas.
— Underdogs won three of last four series games SU. [/SIZE]

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2021, 03:31 AM

Sunday’s Den: Random NFL trends…….

NFL trends that may come in handy, later this year:

13) Vikings are 0-7 ATS in last 7 Monday night road games.
— Minnesota covered six of last seven games vs Detroit.
— Vikings are 0-6 ATS vs opponent coming off a bye.

12) Last three years, Giants are 18-6 ATS on road.
— Giants are 11-1 ATS as a road underdog of less than 7 points.
— Giants are 4-14 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

11) Jets are 0-6 ATS in last six games vs Miami.
— Last four years, Jets are 11-21-1 ATS on the road.

10) Dolphins are 6-10-1 ATS the week after playing New England.

9) Patriots covered five of last seven games against the Jets.
— New England is 8-1 ATS the week after playing the Jets.

8) Last three years, Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Philly is 2-5 ATS in last seven games vs Dallas.

7) Pittsburgh started 11-0 LY, then lost five of last six games.
— Steelers had 56 sacks last year (most)
— Steelers allowed 14 sacks last year (least)

6) Last four years, 49ers are 5-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— 49ers covered once in their last six games with Arizona.

5) Seattle is 10-2-1 ATS in last 13 games with San Francisco.
— Seahawks are 9-2-2 ATS in last 13 games in Eastern time zone.

4) Tampa Bay is 2-9 ATS in last 11 Thursday games.
— Last four years, Buccaneers are 8-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.

3) It has been 16 years since the NFC East champ repeated the next season; Washington win the division last year.

2) Washington is 0-7 ATS in last seven Monday home games.
— Washington is 0-5 ATS the week after playing the Eagles.

1) Tennessee is 31-21 SU under Vrabel, but was outgained all three years.
— Last three years, Titans are 6-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Tennessee is 2-11 ATS the week after a Monday night game.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-28-2021, 01:36 AM

Wednesday’s Den: MAC football trends

Last year, several MAC teams had their season decimated by COVID, playing only 3,4 games.

Akron:
— Last three years, they’re 5-25 SU (-23 turnovers)
— Since 2012, Zips are 4-22 ATS as home underdogs.
— Covered twice in last 16 games as an underdog.
— 1-2 all-time in bowl games; they won a bowl in Boise in 2015

Ball State:
— Last year was their first bowl game since 2013.
— Lost opener 38-31 LY, then won last seven games.
— 8-17 ATS last 25 home games, 14-12 last 26 on road.
— Since 2015, Cardinals are 3-9 ATS as a home underdog.

Bowling Green:
— Falcons were 0-5 LY, giving up 46.3 ppg.
— Lost 4 of last 5 bowls; their last bowl win was in 2014.
— Since 2016, Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Falcons are 2-13 ATS as an underdog.

Buffalo
— Went 24-10 SU last 3 years; their coach bolted to Kansas.
— None of the previous assistants were retained by new coach.
— Won bowls 31-9/17-10 last two years.
— Since 2017, Bulls are 22-8-1 ATS in MAC games.

Central Michigan:
— As HC, McElwain is 31-16 ATS when favored, 16-16-1 as an underdog.
— Lost last five bowl games, giving up 42.5 ppg.
— Since 2014, Chippewas are 18-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Were +6 in turnovers LY; previous four years, they were minus-22.

Eastern Michigan
— Since 2016, Eagles are 19-3 ATS as road underdogs.
— Since 2015, EMU is 18-5 ATS tin non-conference games.
— Last three years, they’re +14 in turnovers; from ’14-’17, they were minus-34.
— 1-3 all-time in bowls; only win was in 1987.

Kent State
— Last ten years, Kent is 8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Went 3-1 LY, scoring 49.8 ppg.
— Last three years, Golden Flashes are 10-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— 1-2 all-time in bowls; they beat Utah State 51-41 in a 2018 bowl.

Miami
— HC Martin is 26-19-1 ATS as an underdog, 14-13 when favored.
— Since 2014, Miami is 25-17-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Miami has only 32 returning starts on offensive line TY.
— Red Hawks are 1-3 in last four bowls; their last bowl win was 2010.

Northern Illinois
— Huskies were 0-6 LY, giving up 40+ points four times, 30+ in other two.
— NIU is 5-13 last two years; from 2011-18, they were 65-34 SU.
— Huskies are 19-7 ATS in last 26 games as road underdogs
— NIU lost its last five bowls, scoring only 14.2 ppg.

Ohio U
— Coach Solich retired July 13; the old OC is the new head coach.
— Bobcats are 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as an underdog.
— Since 2015, Ohio U is 25-14 ATS coming off a win.
— Won last three bowls, by combined score of 98-27.

Toledo
— HC Candle is 21-17 ATS as favorite, 4-11 as an underdog.
— Rockets have 101 starts back on OL (whole 2-deep is back)
— Since 2018, Toledo is 4-12 ATS coming off a win.
— Rockets lost last three bowls, giving up 32.3 ppg.

Western Michigan:
— Broncos went 4-2 LY, scoring 41.7 ppg.
— Since 2013, WMU is 3-7 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last four years, Broncos are 18-25-1 ATS.
— WMU lost last three bowls, scoring 18 ppg.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2021, 12:28 PM

San Francisco 49ers 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Healthy Niners Offering Nice Betting Value

The 49ers were crushed by injuries last season, headlined by star DE Nick Bosa. His health is one of the keys to San Fran's return to prominence in 2021 and he seems to be right on schedule — but should you bet on him and the Niners this year?

No NFL team was more snake-bitten last year than the San Francisco 49ers. And it wasn’t just plight during a pandemic season either. The Niners were cursed with almost 162 games lost to ailments — without counting COVID-19.

Those injury issues make San Francisco the toughest team to peg down for the 2021 NFL season, coming off a 6-10 SU record and 7-9 ATS count. On paper, this is a deep and talented team in the deepest and most talented division. Is that enough for Niners bettors?

Here is our 2021 San Francisco 49ers NFL betting preview.

San Francisco 49ers futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +1,400
To Win Conference +600
To Win Division +200
Season Win Total O/U 10.5 (Under -120)
To Make Playoffs Yes -160/No +140
Best futures bet: Make playoffs – Yes (-160)

As you can see from the above futures, bookies are giving plenty of respect to the Niners in 2021. But, with Kyle Shanahan’s injury track record and San Francisco’s QB situation (which is the worst among top contenders), it’s tough tying up money on this team for an entire season.

The playoff prop allows for wiggle room on the 49ers who, given their projected win total, should at least finish second in the NFC West. And that should be enough to make the tournament in 2021.

San Francisco 49ers betting overview

What will win bets: Defense

New defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans inherits a stop unit that ranked No. 6 overall in Football Outsiders DVOA. While that group did benefit from a run-heavy offense chewing up clock, the Niners were stingy versus the pass (allowing only 6.2 yards per pass attempt). They’ll benefit from Ryans’ more aggressive game plan, after registering only 30 sacks in 2020, but the health of DEs Nick Bosa and Dee Ford is the lynchpin.

What will lose bets: Quarterback
The Niners have a top-tier offensive line and plenty of rubber to burn in the ground game, but what happens when San Francisco has to pass the ball?

Of all the elite NFC contenders, San Francisco has the shakiest situation under center. Jimmy Garoppolo’s ripcord has a hair-trigger and FCS prodigy Trey Lance could be thrown into the deep end early on. That may be a big ask for a team giving the points most Sundays.

More Covers NFL betting analysis

Arizona Cardinals betting preview
Los Angeles Rams betting preview
Seattle Seahawks betting preview
The must-bet NFL games of 2021

San Francisco 49ers game-by-game odds

The 49ers are point spread favorites in 13 of their 17 games in 2021, and the potential to be the chalk in 15 outings with one pick’em and a Week 3 battle versus the Packers currently off the board. Kyle Shanahan is just 7-18-1 ATS as a favorite since taking over the head coach role in 2017. Woof.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Detroit -7.5 46

2 @ Philadelphia -4 46

3 vs Green Bay OTB OTB

4 vs Seattle -3.5 46.5

5 @ Arizona PK 46.5

6 BYE

7 vs Indianapolis -4.5 46.5

8 @ Chicago -4 44.5

9 vs Arizona -5.5 47

10 vs L.A. Rams -3 45.5

11 @ Jacksonville -4 45.5

12 vs Minnesota -6.5 46.5

13 @ Seattle +1.5 45.5

14 @ Cincinnati -3.5 46

15 vs Atlanta -7.5 47.5

16 @ Tennessee -1 47

17 vs Houston -13.5 46

18 @ L.A. Rams +3 44.5

Early season forecast

The opening three weeks sets up San Francisco for a solid start to the season — at least in the win/loss column. Covering those spreads could be a tougher task.

The Niners open 2021 with back-to-back 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. PT) road games. First up: a trip to Motown to face the Lions as 7.5-point favorites in Week 1. That half-point hook is sticking out like a sore thumb for a team working in two new coordinators. Under Shanahan, the 49ers are a dismal 1-7-1 ATS when giving a touchdown or more.

Week 2 sends San Francisco to the East Coast to face Philadelphia. Depending on how the Aaron Rodgers situation shakes down in Green Bay, this second straight road stop could be a lookahead to the Packers in Week 3. The 4-point spread is a bit of a dead number, so expect some hefty line movement based on Week 1 knee jerks.

The line for the Niners’ home opener versus the Cheeseheads on Sunday Night Football is currently OTB due to the Rodgers/Davante Adams drama in Wisconsin. If those talents are in green and yellow come September 26, this one would have San Francisco as a home underdog (early lines had 49ers +5). Shanahan is 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) versus the Packers in his time in San Fran but 0-4 ATS (2-2 SU) in home openers since 2017.

Spot bet
Week 16: @ Tennessee -1

Music City could be a sour note for the Niners, who will not only be playing on a short week for this Thursday nighter — but it will also be the team’s third road game in four weeks.

San Francisco has back-to-back away stints at Seattle and Cincinnati before hosting Atlanta at home in Week 15 (always an emotional matchup for Shanahan), then turning around for a mid-week matchup with the Titans.

Shanahan’s 49ers are 10-6 ATS versus the AFC but who knows how much of this injury-plagued roster will still be active by the time December 23 rolls around.

Totals tip

When it comes to setting totals in the modern NFL era, the 49ers are a bit of a throwback. The tallest Over/Under in the Niners’ current lookahead lines tops out at 47.5 points for a Week 15 homestand facing the Falcons.

The San Francisco defense will be sound, and the playbook will still lean heavily on the ground game — especially early on if Lance gets the nod. That said, the Niners do have capable receiving threats in WRs Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle. There could be a pivot to Over results once this offense finds its form.

Star power props: Nick Bosa, DE
Player prop Odds to win
Defensive Player of the Year +1,200
Comeback Player of the Year +800
Sack total 9.5 (Over -120)
Best prop: Over 9.5 sacks (-120)

The elephant in the locker room is the strength of Bosa’s knee after missing 2020 with a torn ACL. It seems his recovery is on schedule as teams enter camp, but his durability and explosiveness are in question.

Bosa was the lifeblood of this 49ers stop unit as a rookie in 2019, recording nine sacks and causing chaos at the line. Defensive architect Robert Saleh is gone to New York but new DC DeMeco Ryans is looking to dial up the intensity to 11 and getting other bodies back on the D-line is vital to Bosa’s success.

If anything, Bosa will have plenty of chances to collect the heads of QBs in divisional games alone. NFC West foes are going to be throwing — a lot — and Bosa could eclipse this sack total in those six matchups alone.

Trend to know

Pay attention to the point spread when betting the 49ers’ totals. We mentioned Shanahan’s piss-poor record as a regular-season favorite since 2017 (7-18-1 ATS), but the Niners are also 17-8-1 Over/Under in those games (68 percent Overs).

When getting the points, San Francisco is 16-22 O/U (58 percent Unders). The 49ers are currently underdogs in just two games (with a pick’em at Arizona and OTB vs Green Bay).

Games with San Francisco as an underdog

Week 13: @ Seahawks +1.5, 45.5
Week 18: @ Rams +3, 44.5

Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2021, 12:34 PM

Arizona Cardinals 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Third Times A Charm For Kliff and Kyler?

Year 3 of the Kingsbury/Kyler marriage again shows lots of promise, but with a greater focus on passing — and less of Murray running — what are the best ways to bet Arizona? Find out in our Cardinals 2021 season betting preview.

The promise of the Arizona Cardinals is part of the reason why the NFC West is the NFL’s best division. The Cardinals have an exciting young core on the field — and on the sideline — and anchored that potential with veteran additions on both sides of the ball in 2021.

That experience is much needed after Arizona drifted off course in the second half of the 2020 campaign, starting the season 5-2 SU and ATS before burning bettors like the desert sun with a 2-7 ATS finish (3-6 SU).

Here’s our 2021 Arizona Cardinals NFL betting preview.

Arizona Cardinals futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +3,200
To Win Conference +1,600
To Win Division +550
Season Win Total 8.5 (O +130/U -160)
Best futures bet: Over 8.5 wins (+130)

Outside of the NFC West (Arizona was 2-4 SU in divisional games last year), the Cardinals slate isn’t too prickly and ranks 13th in strength of schedule. They match up with the AFC South in non-conference competition and play some of the tougher non-divisional matchups at home (Minnesota, Green Bay, Indianapolis). On top of the matchup with the Packers, Arizona also plays Houston: two teams whose star quarterbacks could be MIA by the time those games roll around. The oddsmakers have the Cards as favorites in nine games with one pick'em on the board.

What will win bets: Passing game

We enter Year 3 under coach Kliff Kingsbury and the third season for QB Kyler Murray. The cupboard is loaded with offensive options, most notably the receiving corps. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green (if healthy), and rookie WR Rondale Moore will thrive in the up-tempo 10 personnel playbook and Arizona will score — a lot.

What will lose bets: Running game

Besides Lamar Jackson’s record-setting running, no quarterback rushed for more yards than Murray in 2020. That’s not a good thing and Murray knows it, stating he would like to run less. Protecting Murray from punishment and keeping pass rushes honest falls on Arizona’s ground game, which replaces the departed (and underrated) Kenyan Drake with the versatile-yet-fragile James Conner.

Arizona Cardinals game-by-game odds

According to the lookahead lines, 10 of Arizona’s 17 games have spreads of a field goal or less. Arizona is 6-9 ATS (6-8-1 SU) when set between -3 and +3 in the two years under Kingsbury.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Tennessee +3.5 51

2 vs Minnesota -3 49.5

3 @ Jacksonville -2.5 49

4 @ L.A. Rams +4.5 49

5 vs San Francisco PK 46.5

6 @ Cleveland +4.5 50

7 vs Houston -10.5 49

8 vs Green Bay -3 49

9 @ San Francisco +5.5 47

10 vs Carolina -6 49.5

11 @ Seattle +3.5 50.5

12 BYE

13 @ Chicago -1.5 46

14 vs L.A. Rams +2.5 48

15 @ Detroit -6.5 47

16 vs Indianapolis -1 50

17 @ Dallas +2.5 52

18 vs Seattle -2 49

Early season forecast

The Cardinals were a last-second field goal from Detroit away from a 3-0 start last September and have a solid shot at winning the first three games of 2021.

They opened as 2.5-point underdogs in Tennessee for Week 1 and that spread ticked up to Titans -3 with their addition of Julio Jones. This 1 p.m. ET kickoff will be a contrast in tempos, with Arizona’s no-huddle putting the Tennessee defense on its heels and the Titans plodding run game trying to chew up clock and ice Murray & Co. on the sideline.

Week 2 is the home opener, with the Vikings coming to town for a 4:05 p.m. ET start. The Cardinals are giving a field goal to Minnesota, which is playing its second straight road game. Arizona is 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, and 4-7 O/U in home openers since 2010.

A cross-country trip to Jacksonville for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff is on the Week 3 docket. Bookies have the Cards pegged as 2.5-point road chalk. Arizona could get caught looking ahead to Week 4’s collision with L.A. However, Kingsbury is 3-1 ATS on the road versus AFC foes since 2019.

2021 NFL Win Totals
NFL
2021 NFL Win Totals

By: Jared Hochman

Spot bet
Week 4 – at Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
This first taste of the 2021 Rams — and new QB Matt Stafford — comes in a tricky schedule spot for the Cardinals, who will be playing their second straight away game and third road stop in four weeks to open the season. Plus Arizona went 0-2 SU and ATS versus Rams last season.

Totals tip
The Cardinals were one of the best Under bets in football last season, going 5-11 Over/Under — including five straight Under winners to start the schedule. A disruptive pass rush and solid secondary can take credit for those results.

However, lockdown corner Patrick Peterson is gone and Arizona is hoping to squeeze out whatever is left from defensive veterans Malcolm Butler and J.J Watt. This season, oddsmakers have set five of Arizona's games with sub-49 totals. The Cards are 6-9 O/U in games with totals of 48.5 points or less under Kingsbury.

Star power props: Kyler Murray, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +1,200
Passing leader +4,100
Passing yards total 4,150.5 (O -115/U -115)
Best prop: Passing Leader (+4,100)

Murray finished with 3,971 passing yards last year (13th) and played the second half of the season with a bum shoulder, while the offensive line allowed 17 sacks in the final eight games after giving up only 10 in the opening eight outings.

Kingsbury’s 10 personnel sets (four WRs) and no-huddle attack want Murray throwing more and running less, and with a bevy of reliable targets, the former Heisman winner should climb the passing charts quickly. His top target, DeAndre Hopkins, is the favorite to lead the league in receiving yards at +750, so it only makes sense that Murray should challenge for the passing title as well.

2021 NFL Divisional Odds
NFL
2021 NFL Divisional Odds

By: Chris Toman

Trend to know
Arizona is 3-9 SU and 4-6-2 ATS versus NFC West rivals since Kingsbury took over as head coach in 2019.

Divisional games

Week 4: +4.5 at Rams
Week 5: PK vs 49ers
Week 9: +5.5 at 49ers
Week 11: +3.5 at Seahawks
Week 14: +2.5 vs Rams
Week 18: -2 vs Seahawks

Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

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Nfl 2021-2022 football season previews-news-notes-picks-rumors !

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