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WinOnBaseball.com - Thursday - 6/10/04
Welcome to our first annual service free trial!
-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.
-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated weekly on the "Records" page of our website.
-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Friday, June 11th.
Season record: 118-129 -23.33 UNITS
Lines from Pinnacle current as of 11:06pm Pacific on 06/10/04.
Two plays for Thursday:
TOR (TOWERS) -103 over LA (Ishii) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Towers' season numbers are a bit misleading because he hasn't been pitching regularly. He has an excellent walk rate and is pitching well right now. He is facing a bad offense in the Dodgers, who are 25th in the league in scoring. Ishii is up to his usual ways, walking a ton of batters. The Toronto organization preaches walks, so they should get a lot of runners on base in this game and have lots of scoring opportunites.
MIL (OBERMUELLER) +151 over Ana (Sele) - 1 UNIT - 7:05pm Pacific
I do not like Obermueller, but I think this is pretty good value, given Anaheim's ineptness on offense. The Angels have scored only 2 runs in their last 41 innings of play. Moreover, Sele has been pitching over his head, and got a dose of reality in his last game against Cleveland. Also, Milwaukee is a much better road team this year.
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Atlanta Braves @ Detroit Tigers
ATL is 7-3 in Ortiz' last 10 starts.
ATL is 6-2 in Game 3 of a series after a loss.
DET is 1-6 in Maroth's last seven starts.
DET is 1-8 in Game 3 of a series after a win.
Play: ATL -135
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Texas Rangers
PIT is 4-0 in Fogg's last four starts.
PIT is 2-8 in their last 10 overall.
PIT is 4-13 in Game 2 of a series.
TEX is 7-3 in Rogers' last 10 starts.
Play: TEX -180
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FREE Service Play For Thursday, June 10, 2004
New York Mets (Ginter) at Minnesota Twins (Lohse) 8:10 PM ET
New York Mets (Ginter) +101 (2 Units)
Matt Ginter has pitched well since his first game as a Met, a five-inning win at Colorado, but he has little to show for it with three straight no-decisions. He held the Marlins to two runs over six innings his last time out. He has allowed only 1 earned run in 8.2 innings on the road this season. One of those was just a 3-inning outing at Philadelphia because of a long rain delay. The Mets are 3-2 in his 5 starts this season. Minnesota continues to struggle at the plate. They have scored 3 or less runs in 11 of their last 18 games, going 7-11 in that span. They are hitting just .211 against righties their last 10 games and .233 overall. After hitting .280 at home last year, they are currently hitting only .263 in 2004. Kyle Lohse has been the model of inconsistency this year. He has a 5.61 ERA for the season and that includes 4 starts of 2 runs or less allowed. He has a 4.91 ERA at the Metrodome this season, which is nearly a full run ahead of his average the past 2 seasons. The Mets numbers on offense are still low after a horrible start but they are scoring runs. They have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 16 games, certainly not spectacular, but a huge improvement. This could be Ginter’s last opportunity to stay in the rotation so he must impress here. Scott Erickson is scheduled to continue his rehab assignment and after tonight, he should rejoin the club. Jae Seo or Ginter will be bumped from the rotation so Ginter will be looking to stay with a solid effort.
Insider Edge Sports
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JCD Sports on a 32-14 run (70%) over their last 46 free picks!!
JCD Sports now 62-38 (62%) over their last 99 free picks.
Today’s Free Pick in MLB: Anaheim -160 (Sele) over Milwaukee (Obermueller)
OBERMUELLER is 0-7 against the money line in road games when pitching in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 7-1 against the money line in home games after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 3 seasons.
SELE is 25-7 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.
SELE is 6-1 against the money line in all games this season.
SELE is 5-1 against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SELE is 23-8 against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SELE is 12-4 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Though the chalk is a little heavy, we don’t see Anaheim losing their 6th home game in a row.
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Thanks Neil
Dunkel Index - Thursday
THURSDAY, JUNE 10
National League
Chicago Cubs* (Zambrano) 11.35 (1/2) St. Louis (Marquis) 11.13
Interleague
New York Yankees* (Contreras) 10.67 (2) Colorado (Jennings) 8.54
Detroit* (Maroth) 9.45 (Even) Atlanta (Ortiz) 9.38
Kansas City* (Reyes) 9.04 (1/2) Montreal (Day) 8.57
Kansas City* (Gobble) 9.03 (Even) Montreal (Ohka) 8.99
Toronto* (Towers) 9.73 (1/2) Los Angeles (Ishii) 9.03
Boston* (Schilling) 10.43 (1/2) San Diego (Valdez) 10.10
Baltimore* (Cabrera) 11.41 (3) Arizona (Fossum) 8.33
Florida (Pavano) 10.83 (1/2) Cleveland* (Davis) 10.72
San Francisco (Rueter) 10.31 (1/2) Tampa Bay* (Zambrano) 9.73
Philadelphia (Myers) 10.23 (1/2) Chicago White Sox* (Schoeneweis) 9.95
New York Mets (Ginter) 10.76 (1 1/2) Minnesota* (Lohse) 9.46
Anaheim* (Sele) 10.25 (1) Milwaukee (Obermueller) 9.21
Texas* (Benoit) 10.18 (1/2) Pittsburgh (Perez) 9.76
Texas* (Rogers) 11.38 (3) Pittsburgh (Fogg) 8.43
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MLB Freebie for June 10th
Free picks are 65-56 (+20.79 units) in 2004.
Free 1-unit MLB Freebie for June 10th:
Take Texas (Benoit) -111 vs. Pittsburgh (Perez) Game 1
We are under 100 days away from the start of the 2004 football season! Right now I have an Early Bird Special going on my Total Football Season pass which costs as much as many handicappers charge for ONLY a month of picks! For only $249, you can get all of my solid football selections in the upcoming college and pro season! This special offer is for a limited time, it'll go to $399 soon! If you are looking for a football handicapper who knows how to win BIG (58.5 units won in 2003 and a whopping 98 units in 2002!),
Enjoy the Freebie!
SportsGuru
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The Sandman's 5% Thursday Afternoon MLB Interleague Best Bet Release:
# 955 Atlanta Braves (Ortiz) -130 over Detroit Tigers (Maroth)
Please List ONLY Braves SP Russ Ortiz for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Bravos on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -130 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (1:07 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Cloudy, 60% Chance of Rain,
62 Degrees, Wind Right to Left 11 MPH (TBS National TV)
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Night MLB Interleague Best Bet Release:
# 965 Florida Marlins (Pavano) -125 over Cleveland Indians (Davis)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Marlins on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -125 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (7:07 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Cloudy, 60% Chance of Showers/Rain,
63 Degrees, Wind OUT to Right 11 MPH
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Ted Sevransky's Free Play for Thursday
Expos @ Royals Game 1
I’ve been playing on the Royals Under the total at home on a fairly consistent basis this season, including Tuesday’s 4-2 Under winner. Kansas City has now gone Under the total in 14 of 19 at Kaufmann Stadium, getting consistently stronger pitching than expected by the linesmakers from their young corps of starters. Today’s starter, Dennys Reyes, is no exception, with three strong outings (all Unders) in his last four starts. The Expos are hitting just .215 as a team, against left handed pitchers. No team in the majors has gone Under the total more than Montreal this season, and no team has scored fewer runs than the light hitting Expos. Today’s starter, Zack Day, has gone Under the total in ten of eleven starts this season, more Unders than any other starter in the majors this season. If that’s not enough to put us squarely on the Under between these two squads on Wednesday night, I don’t know what is!
Under 8.5
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SPARK
Ted S likes the under in the first KC Royals game...Old Capt TOF likes the way Reyes throws, so we're gonna take the Royals-115 in Game 1...I don't play unders...
Thanks for the many posts you put out daily....
Trends must take you a lot of time...Well appreciated my man..
Look for take 2 later on....Thanks matey..:D :D
Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!
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