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WinOnBaseball.com - Wednesday - 6/9/04
Welcome to our first annual service free trial!
-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.
-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated weekly on the "Records" page of our website.
-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Thursday, June 10th.
Season record: 117-128 -23.27 UNITS
Lines from Pinnacle current as of 6:40am Pacific on 06/09/04.
Three plays for Wednesday:
MIN (SANTANA) -123 over NYM (Trachsel) - 1 UNIT - 5:10pm Pacific
The Mets offense has been pretty bad lately, and against flyballers, they are even worse. Santana is an extreme flyballer, so he matches up well here. He has looked very good in his last two outings, only to have a one inning implosion in both of them. That should be less of a concern here, as I feel this is a better matchup for him. Trachsel has not looked pretty, and although the Twins offense has disappeared also, they should get enough for Santana and the bullpen.
UNDER 8.5 MON (DAY)/KC (REYES) -112 - 1 UNIT - 5:10pm Pacific
Should be another low scoring game at Kauffman. As bad as Montreal's offense has been, they are even worse against lefties, so Reyes should put in a decent game. As a groundball pitcher, Day shouldn't fall victim to Kauffman's effects.
UNDER 8.5 CIN (ACEVEDO)/OAK (HARDEN) -106 - 1 UNIT - 7:05pm Pacific
Oakland has put up some major runs against the Reds in their last two games. Cincinnati will have their best pitcher on the mound tonight, however, so I expect their scoring to slow down. Harden will not give up the runs that Zito did, so we should finally have a low scoring game in this series. I see this as two very good starting pitchers in a pitcher's park, whereas the other games in the series had at least one below average pitcher starting.
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JCD Sports on a 31-14 run (69%) over their last 45 free picks!!
JCD Sports now 61-38 (62%) over their last 98 free picks.
Today’s Free Pick in MLB: Arizona/Baltimore OVER 9.5
The OVER is 9-1 in Webb’s last 10 starts.
The OVER is 10-1 in Arizona’s last 11 games overall.
The OVER is 8-2 in DuBose’s last 10 starts.
The OVER is 12-2 in Baltimore’s last 14 games overall.
The OVER is 11-3 in Baltimore last 14 games at home.
Both pitchers have been struggling of late with Webb giving up 16 runs over his last 3 appearances lasting only an average of 5 innings, while Dubose has giving up 17 runs over his last 4 games only lasting an average of just over 5 innings.
This one could be over the number by the time the bullpens arrive for both teams!
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Dunkel Index - Wednesday
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 9
National League
Chicago Cubs* (Prior) 10.68 (Even) St. Louis (Morris) 10.65
Interleague
Toronto* (Batista) 9.37 (1/2) Los Angeles (Lima) 9.22
San Diego (Lawrence) 11.40 (1 1/2) Boston* (Arroyo) 9.86
New York Yankees* (Brown) 11.40 (3) Colorado (Kennedy) 8.52
Baltimore* (Dubose) 9.58 (Even) Arizona (Webb) 9.49
Florida (Burnett) 10.24 (Even) Cleveland* (Westbrook) 10.21
Atlanta (Thomson) 11.87 (3) Detroit* (Bonderman) 8.85
San Francisco (Schmidt) 11.89 (2 1/2) Tampa Bay* (Hendrickson) 9.41
Chicago White Sox* (Garland) 10.38 (1/2) Philadelphia (Milton) 9.27
Texas* (Rogers) 11.38 (3) Pittsburgh (Fogg) 8.43
New York Mets (Trachsel) 10.08 (1) Minnesota* (Santana) 9.07
Kansas City* (Reyes) 9.04 (1/2) Montreal (Day) 8.57
Seattle* (Garcia) 10.77 (1) Houston (Miller) 9.94
Oakland* (Harden) 12.04 (2 1/2) Cincinnati (Acevedo) 9.41
Anaheim* (Washburn) 9.48 (1/2) Milwaukee (Santos) 8.99
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BOB G
70-39 64%
Oakland -145 Over Cincinnati
We might as well give you the sweep with one of our favorite pitchers on the mound in Rich Harden. This guy maybe closing soon for the A's because his stuff is that good. He is a quality starter that we have found value with. The A's are on a roll at overall and especially at home. A's are 7-1 in their last eight and all have been at home. The Reds are 1-4 in Acevedo's last five starts. His ERA on the road is over 5.50. Harden has been solid all year. The Oakland bats have been on fire scoring 13 and 10 runs the first two games of this series. The Reds pen needs a rest and we don't think they will get it tonight.
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Alex Smart on Braves (anybody see Marc Lawrence never lost play?)
Atlanta Braves -125 (Thomson) to win money line vs Detroit Tigers -7:05 PM ET
Thomson Atlanta's starting pitcher for todays tilt against the Tigers comes into this game with a 3-0 record over his L3 starts and has garnered himself a nifty looking 0.86 ERA over that span. Thomson has allowed just two runs in 21 innings. He is 4-1 with a 3.45 ERA in seven road starts and 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers. His pitching opponent from the Tigers Bonderman has lost his last three starts, and he has lasted three innings or less in his last two outings. The right hander has filthy looking 12.41 ERA over that span. bottom line: Everything points to one sided victory for the Braves here today.
Note: The Braves have won three consecutive games in this series against the Tigers and are 28-6 in inter league play over the past few years.Play on the Braves(Thomson)
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Wednesday MLB Free Play
6/9/04: Free Play from Prime Sports Picks
ARIZONA (Webb) +121 at BALTIMORE (DuBose) -131:
MLB - 7:05PM (EST)
Arizona's Brandon Webb is coming off his best pitching performance in over a month, but still has been a big disappointment this season. Webb is keeping hitter's off balance - allowing only 64 hits in 70 innings (.229 batting average), but has really struggled with the walks giving up 40 free passes this year. Similarly, Baltimore's Eric DuBose has kept hitters at bay (57 hits in 62 innings), but has also had trouble with base on balls, walking 35 batters.
The Orioles should have the big edge here on offense as they are hitting .300 against right-handers and averaging over 6 runs per game at home. On the other hand, the D-backs are hitting only .230 against lefties, averaging under 3.5 runs per game on the road.
Go with the home team here, as Baltimore's offense should get the job done on Wednesday night.
Best of luck,
-Drew
Prime Sports Picks
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InsiderEdge
FREE Service Play For Wednesday, June 9, 2004
Los Angeles Dodgers (Lima) at Toronto Blue Jays (Batista) 7:05 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays (Batista) –126 (2 Units)
Miguel Batista has turned things around since a pretty bad return to the American League. After posting a 6.04 ERA in April, he has put up a 3.89 ERA since. Take out two bad starts against the Red Sox and that number comes down to 2.41 in his other 5 starts. The Blue Jays are 4-0 in his 4 starts at home since May began, winning those games by a combined score of 27-13. He is coming off a solid performance at Oakland in his last outing, going up against Barry Zito. Both starters were gone after eight innings with very similar lines. Batista allowed one more hit than Zito but Zito walked one more hitter than the Jays starter. Both gave up an earned run and both struck out five. He has a career 3.34 ERA against Los Angeles. Jose Lima is coming off his best performance of the season and judging by his other outings, it looks to have been an aberration. He allowed 0 runs in 8 innings to the lowly Diamondbacks after giving up 11 runs in his previous 3 starts in only 13 innings of work. He has been inconsistent on the road, both starting and coming out of the bullpen. He has a 5.82 ERA away from Dodger Stadium to go along with a 1.82 WHIP. Odalis Perez requested and received permission to move his next start back a day so he could pitch against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. This move got Lima back out of the bullpen and into starting another game for the Dodgers, something that wasn’t expected to happen until after June 12th.
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8.10pm ET
Montreal (18 - 38) at Kansas City (21 - 34)
Zach Day (R) vs. Dennis Reyes (R)
While tonight's starting pitchers have similar ERA's and WHIP's there is a huge difference in their respective teams' record when they start.
It's difficult to win when you can't score and the Expos are just 4-7 (.364) when Zach Day heads to the mound. The right-hander gets the least run support in the majors with just 15 runs in his 11 outings.
In contrast the Royals are 4-2 (.667) when Dennys Reyes starts including 3-1 at home. In his last two starts at Kauffman Stadium he has pitched a total of 12 2/3 innings and allowed only three earned runs. The veteran left-hander is 0-0 when starting against the Expos with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.333.
Kansas City get the American League's leading hitter Ken Harvey (.375) back tonight after he was forced to sit out the series opener yesterday. The first baseman is batting .508 with three homers, seven doubles and 10 RBIs in his last 15 games.
The Expos have dropped 21 of their 30 road games this season while the Royals are an even 14-14 at home.
The home team is 8-2 in Poncino's last ten behind home plate.
Recommended Play: Kansas City -122
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