Friday's Service Plays & Request Thread

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WinOnBaseball.com - Friday Report - 05/14/04

Welcome to our first annual service free trial!

-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.

-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated daily on the "Records" page of our website.

-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)

-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Saturday, May 15th.

Season record: 70-79 -19.02 UNITS

Three plays for Friday:

Lines from Pinnacle current as of 11:37pm Pacific on 05/13/04.

OVER 7.5 CIN (WILSON)/LA (ISHII) -105 - 1 UNIT - 7:10pm Pacific
Wilson is 4-0, but this is the classic case of W/L record not being indicative of the quality of pitcher on the mound. Opposing batters are hitting .305 against him, and the rest of his skill set looks pretty bad. Likewise, Ishii has a nice record despite a poor skill set. His command, control and dominance rates are way down, to the point where he could be hiding an injury. In fact, the Dodgers gave him a couple of days off, but claim it's not injury related. I think both starters are capable of giving up a fair amount of runs in this game.

TOR (MILLER) +130 over Bos (Lowe) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Miller has pitched extremely well after going through a dead arm phase during the spring. His last two starts were dominating, his K/BB ratio has been excellent, and has only given up one HR. I think Toronto will be able to score off of Lowe, as their hitters are excellent against groundball pitchers, and Lowe is an extreme groundballer. Lowe has not looked sharp in his last two starts, giving up 15 hits and 7 walks in his last 10.2 IP.

KC (GOBBLE) +142 over Oak (Hudson) - 1 UNIT - 5:10pm Pacific
Gobble is a lefty flyball pitcher, and Oakland's current lineup has not fared well against this type of pitcher. Hudson is coming off of a 120 pitch complete game in his last start, so hopefully we can see an early exit. If not, I'm comfortable with KC's hitters against him, as they have historically hit him well. What I'm not comfortable with, however, is KC's bullpen, so I'll be hoping that their offense will give enough support.

[garth]

freeplays.com

There are 3 services on freeplays.com whose free picks I follow: Bluechip Sports, Powerpicks Vegasline, and Totals4u. Bluechips and Powerpicks both hit close to 60% of their free plays. I've followed them through basketball and the early part of the baseball season. They don't usually post until late afternoon during the week. Totals4u does pretty well on the totals and they post early. Totals4u has the [ Atlanta/Milwaukee over today. GL on your plays today.

[ItsBillBelichick]

Dr. Bob

Friday Analysis
DETROIT (-6 ½) 87 New Jersey 74
The home team has won by 15 points or more in all 4 games of this series and I expect Detroit to bounce back from their poor road efforts to win by a comfortable margin tonight. My ratings favor the Pistons by 7 points in this game, so the line is pretty fair, but Detroit qualifies in a solid 42-21-1 ATS home bounce-back situation that is based on their big loss in game 4. The situation isn’t significant enough to merit a Best Bet without some line value, so I’ll only lay 6 points or less with the Pistons in a 2-Star Best Bet (they’d have a 59% chance of covering at -6 points) and I’ll consider Detroit a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 6 points.

Upgrade Detroit to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 6 points or less.

Sacramento (+5 ½) 92 MINNESOTA 95
The oddsmakers are giving way too much value to the home court edge in this series and the road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the first 4 games. Minnesota has been favored by 5 ½ or 6 points at home in this series and the Kings have been favored by 6 points in both of their home games. The normal home court advantage in the playoffs is about 3 ½ points, so there should be about a 7 point swing from one team’s home court to the other – not an 11 ½ point swing (from Sacramento by 6 to Minnesota by 5 ½). It’s true that Sacramento has played better at home in recent years, but that’s only because they’re so bad in road games without rest (21-36-1 ATS the last 4 seasons). However, the Kings are now 76-47-3 ATS on the road with rest, including 14-6-1 ATS in the post-season. My ratings favor Minnesota by 4 ½ points (3 ½ if I eliminated the Kings’ road games without rest) and I give the Kings a solid 55% chance of covering at the current line of +5 ½ points (54% at +5 and 56% at +6).

[Blackbeard]

Mejias Nba picks

Last night: 1-0 | Week to date: 5-2 | Playoff record: 44-12 | Season record: 815-429 (65.6 %)


Friday, May 14, 2004
NBA Regular Season
Minnesota Timberwolves 101 Sacramento Kings 99
Detroit Pistons 90 New Jersey Nets 83

[frankb03]

MTi

5* Nets
3* Kings

5* is their top-rated play. They do well with their 5* side selections. They lost their last 5* side selection on the Nets in game 1 of this series.

[Spark]

FREE PLAY

Baseball Play/Friday..........

We are still #2 in the UH Challange Handicapping Contest and the Rankings Link is below....


RedSox/Bluejays Under 10 (Lowe/Miller)


AAA Sports

[Spark]

Friday's Pick from Covertechsports******

Morning all here is Friday's free pick


MLB

Florida at St Louis: PLay Florida

[Spark]

SportsGuru

General
Subject: MLB Freebie for May 14th

Free picks are 61-45 (+30.33 units) in 2004.

Free 1-unit MLB Freebie for May 14th:

Take Florida/St. Louis (Beckett/Marquis) Under 8 runs -115

[LookingToCover]

Hey Guys--Looking for B. Leonard's biggest baseball play to date going tonite. Thanks.

[pascal5757]

jb sports request

He has (2) 2* today..... thanks in advance
.....
now lets kick ass today

[Cubs04]

Windy City Sports Review

50* Sacramento Kings/Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 192.5
Can't "buck the numbers" that support the UNDER. Series is tied at 2-2 so we expect a strong defensive effort from both squads in this match-up as the winner has the upper-hand to close out this series on Sunday in Sacramento. The Kings have played to the UNDER in six of their last seven road games and the Timberwolves have gone 10-4 to the UNDER in their last 14 home games. Also note that four of the last six games between these two have gone UNDER the TOTAL! Take "your MAN" UNDER this evening with UNDER in the Kings/Timberwolves game!

20* Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Cleveland Indians OVER 9
Both starting pitchers Paul Abbott and Justin Davis are in terrible current KW form with more walks than strikeouts in their last 3 starts overall. It all adds up to many baserunners and plenty of runs.

10* Detroit Pistons -6.5


Also go here to get a free $100 if he loses, petty cool.
http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/sh...threadid=32068

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Net Prophet

MLB:

NY Mets (Trachsel) +210 over Houston (Oswalt)
Florida (Beckett) -130 over St. Louis (Marquis)
Colorado (Kennedy) -110 over Philadelphia (Milton)

NBA:

Sacramento +5' over Minnesota

[Cruzer0210]

Bobby Vocelli (***********.com)

20* Angles -125
10* Boston -120
10* Atlanta -130
5*San Diego +105

[Spark]

Friday MLB Free Play

5/14/04: Free Play from Prime Sports Picks

MINNESOTA (Lohse) +131 at WHITE SOX (Schoenweis) -141:
MLB - 8:05PM (EST)

This game features two pitchers heading in different directions. Chicago's Scott Schoenweis has really been pitching well in 2004 allowing 3 or less runs in 5 of his 7 starts this year. On the other hand, Minnesota's Kyle Lohse has not been very effective allowing 5 runs against in 4 of his 7 starts.

Chicago is an impressive (12-6) at home and averaging nearly 6 runs per game. This should spell bad news for the Twins who are averaging under 4 runs per game over their last 10. Give the edge here to Sox on the hill and with the sticks. Go with Chicago at home on Friday night.

Prime Sports Picks