opinions on Cubs/ Cards total play?

[Bennojd]

I've never capped a MLB game in my life and I don't plan to start now. However, when glancing at today's board I got a GUT feeling that the following game has a good possibility to go over.

05/03 @ 01:10pm eastern
951 CUBS CHICAGO (G. MADDUX) +103 o9+105 +1½-220
952 SLCARDS ST. L (J. MARQUIS) -113 u9-125 -1½+180

This is the final game of a four game set and the first three games were all low scoring and went under the total. So a day game with these two pitchers MIGHT have a chance for some scoring.
I won't bet this game until I get some feedback because this is only my GUT talking here.

ANY OPINIONS??

Thanks,
Bennojd

[hazsupport]

Did u see?

Did u see Sports Tracker NBA playoff post? hc

[CoverBoy]

Bennojd

We've never talked up to now so let me first congratulate you on your great NCAA Basketball season . I followed your selections throughout the year ... thanks !!! ...... a lot !!!!!

Although I have no tangible info ( maybe later on ) ... I share your feeling on the OVER in this game. I'm going to wait and see if MMM comes in with an opinion and also Private Players of Pittsburgh ( PPP ) . They've been doing a nice job with their totals so far .

With no other input I'm making a small play on the Over only after checking weather and late lineup scratches.

I'll let you in on a little secret about totals. Years ago we made a fortune with baseball totals and you'll never guess what we used as the #1 handicapping factor .... not pitchers ... not lineup ... not weather .... not anything ... EXCEPT UMPIRES !!! Believe it or not we tracked the umpires in each game . Certain ones called under games while others called over games . I Swear !!
It was labor intensive but well worth it . My crew kinda drifted apart and we lost touch and I haven't kept up with the umpire angle . Wondering if we can recoup the results from the first month of the 2004 season with respect to umpires .
Who would ever think of handicapping Baseball totals strictly by the Umpires calling the games ? LOL -- It was dynamite !!

Anyway congrats and thanks again Benno ---- good luck today ! -Neil

[Art Vandelay]

I like the umpire angle - it makes sense. Depending on the size of these guys specific strike zones, they can dictate how a game is pitched. This can lead to a low or high scoring game. Good stuff - I would love more info on this.

[CoverBoy]

Art

Hey Art - I hear you're in latex ... do you import or export ? LOL ... I've always wanted to pretend to be an importer/exporter but I pretended to be an architect instead . Yeah the Umpire Angle was sweet ... lost touch with it ... first we'd have to recoup all the 2004 games with the Umps and the Totals result .... Trick is ... where do we get started ? .... piecing it together is so time consuming .... wongering if there's a site with these stats .. could be well worth it though. Let me try Don Best at least as a start .... -Neil

[Kaptain]

bennojd

Here's tenative Umpire for Cubs Game...

Everitt.....Over 1....Under 3....AVG WPG 8.3----RPG also 8.3....Wind blowing out to right field 5-15 mph, temp 75 degrees, Maddux era 5.6----Marquis 3.6....Maddux 28.7 IP---8 hr's----Marquis 31.7-3hr's

cUBS AVG 5.2 RPG, 276 bAVG---bpera 5.48
cARDS AVG 5.5 RPG, 280 B AVG...BPEN ERA 5.03

This is some stats you can base your play on...kmann

[Bennojd]

Hazsupport: No, I did not see Sports Tracker's NBA playoff post. Where is it and what does it say?

Coverboy: Thanks for the kind words! I am glad that you were able to benefit from my college basketball picks. It was a pleasure to post them on this forum because I've benefited from others here as well. I've noticed your posts and you add a great deal to this forum too!
That's an interesting angle about umpires and their strike zones. It does make sense and I bet many cappers never even thought of that!
Thanks for your feedback and I think I'll wait (like you) on that over play till Memphis and (PPP) post their picks. Does (PPP) post for free in the Sports Services section??

Sincerely,
Bennojd

[ricker#1]

Over/Under

Games played at ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons.

ST LOUIS is 15-4 (+10.8 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS

Over is 4-1 in J.Marquis' last five home starts.

Under is 9-1 in the Card's last 11 overall.
Under is 7-2 in the Cubs last nine overall.
Under is 6-2 in G.Maddux' last eight starts.

Umpire ... Mike Everitt O/U = 1-3
Under is 7-3 in M.Everitt's last ten BHP.

Hope this info helps.

Good Luck to all

Ricker#1

[CoverBoy]

Kmann - Bennojd

Thanks Kmann - wow that was quick ! No wonder why you're so good. Looking forward to your Dunkelnomics today. We like the Over in the Cub/Card game ... your thoughts ?

Bennojd - PPP gives nothing for free ... most times someone gets their plays and posts them. Having them every day would be a good thing ... I may call them and subscribe myself ... If I do I'll post them every day . -Neil

[Bennojd]

Kmann & Ricker#1

Thanks for the valuable info., guys!!

Sincerely,
Bennojd

[CoverBoy]

Ricker #1

Thanks Ricker

[smartmoneysport]

don best does keep umpire reports but not on the first game of a series. umpire reports are very valuable in the playoffs.last year evirett was a 53% UNDER ump. doesn't mean much for today.

[hazsupport]

Bennoid

Sportstracker i believe might be a Mike Neri publication so its may be in the sports services section. Ckeck the sports service section in the forum. It gives information for current form of both pitchers.hc GL

[Kaptain]

RE Umpires Reports

Go to Jim Feist. baseball, umpires reports....Current -- up to date for this year....

I showed you some stats that would lean towards the over, didn't want to sway you one way or the other....Past games have been low scoring games, I do not play trends, looked at figures I gave you, coupled with heat and wind, BP ERA's, Batting avgs., teams RPG's, I liked and played the OVER....Oh I know some will say "thats easy to say after the game"...not my style...Just didn't want to influence...Hope you took the OVER....OLDman...kmann

PS...Coverboy, there is some reality to UMPIRES helping Over/Unders w/ respective strike zones....However; I think it's too early in the season to start using that criteria...If it helps you make up your mind, that is if you like the OVER, and by chance the UMP is an OVER stat, vice versa, and if it helps make up your mind...Do it...I like the stats I showed, WEATHER, and I NEVER play the UNDER....too many intangibles...OVER or nothing...

Hope it helps some...Monotor what you like by yourself, no outside persuasion, siding with good cappers, and you'll be surprised how many times you'll say "Damn, wish I would've played MY picks....MONITOR YOURSELF. You're probably better than you think you are...STATS-STATS-STATS-STATS...IMO

[Bennojd]

--Cubs (Over 9): a close winner that could have gone either way! There were only 8 runs on the board through eight innings.

--Final score: Cubs 7
Cards 3

In the end:
I decided to play the OVER and obviously I'm glad that I did. Thanks to all those that gave their input!

I'll share this because I'm sure many others have been in this situation too:
I barely got this bet in w/ my offshore book. I waited till about noon central time giving myself nearly 10 minutes before game time. I would confirm the wager; then it would time out. In another instance the odds changed from (-115) to (-105) so I had to cancel and resubmit the wager.
Usually, I don't have this problem as I've been very happy w/ my offshore book; but it always seems to happen at the last minute when I am trying to get a play in JUST before a game starts. Of course, I could have called as they usually answer on the first ring. I swear: if one more second would have passed then it was a NO PLAY for me. That game was off the board immediately after I confirmed my wager. I HATE BEING IN THAT SITUATION, DON'T YOU?


Bennojd