Subject : Fading the Public :

[wizardofoddz]

frank

Think of what you are saying.....
How many books could survive on just the juice????????
NONE...........
How many books do you think take in more that $100,000 a night?
in a perfect world a book takes in $100,000, $50,000 each way, your saying they can keep there doors open on $5000 a night???
Be real, John Q Public is a guaranteed loser..........

[frankb03]

Sorry away from the computer! I had company tonight.

First, I'll reply from your post at 7:28 don't confuse small time books with big time books. I knew many books growing up on LI. ALL of them laid off actions if they received too much on one side. They laid off some of their action to bigger bookies. My brothers best friend was a big time bookie. I've had dozens of conversations with him. Even at a small time level, he loved it when he had even action. Think about it? If a small time book take 10K of action a night he wants balanced action. He earns 1k for doing nothing.

Regarding your 7:35 post once again I disagree with you 100%. When Vegas takes in $100 million on the SuperBowl with balanced action they earn $10 million. Read any article regarding the Superbowl between the Rams and Steelers in the 70S. They lost millions because they moved the line. They were taking too much money on one side. The public caught a middle with the 1/2 point.

That brings me to my final point. If Vegas wasn't trying to balance the action and John Q public loses over 50% then why does Vegas adjust the line. They adjust the line for one reason. To balance the action.

To answer your question. "How many books could survive on just the juice"? ALL. I don't care if you book $1k a night or 100k a night they want balanced action. As a book I'd take $1k a night. I'll gladly accept $100 to only take others action.

[wizardofoddz]

Your talking one game "SuperBowl"
Of course they would want balanced action there, but it very rarely happens. How many sportsbook do you think lay off action????? NONE......
A local lays off because of one of two reasons, 1, he has NO balls or 2, he has NO money.
Why is it when one sportsbook moves a line, they all do? you think they all get the same action?
Vegas adjusts the line to stop wise guy action. That is why when one book gets pounded on a game with wise guy money, they all move the line, not because they all got pounded with the game.
A book couldn't pay, help, phone, electric, rent and all other operating expenses on juice.
Why do some of the biggest sportsbooks around have 4-5k limits on games? They have limits to stop wise guys. If you could walk in and lay 50k on a game they wouldn't be able to move the line.
When I first started booking, you could put a line out in the morning and never change it, now with all the information available to people that just isn't possible any longer. Vegas moves the line for the wise guys, not John Q Public.
15-20 years ago, I paid $300 a week for a Vegas line service. I'd get opening lines, then they would call me with any big line changes. I moved the line, not because I was getting so much action on a side, but wise guys moved it.
You believe what you want, but John Q Publics money is where books make their money and lots of it.

[BillyBarooooooo]

BALANCED ACTION

Balance action who are you kidding!!!

In a perfect world the books get balance action.

They can move the line all they want doesnt mean the action going to balance out.

[wizardofoddz]

good point

If anyone will admit they change there bet because of a line move, they better stop gambling.
A line move may get you on a bet, but if you have your mind made up, the line really don't make a difference.

[frankb03]

Originally posted by BillyBarooooooo

They can move the line all they want doesnt mean the action going to balance out.

Once again I disagree. LOL

On many occassion I've changed my bet amount, decided to pass or bought 1/2 point with line movement. You don't think any professional gamblers have passed on games because they didn't want to lay the hook?

I guess I better stop gambling.

[frankb03]

I propose

Instead of continuing this debate where we won't see eye to eye. I'd love to be proven wrong. If you have access to this info post the top fade plays daily. Let's see what happens. I believe long-term it'll be around 50%.

[wizardofoddz]

well frank

Under White Sox for me last night was a HUGE fade play.
The total went from 9under to 8½under and John Q Public was on the OVER.
That is a BIG move on a total, instead of the line going 8½over, 8½flat and then 8½under, it all went in one move, BIG money moved that line, nothing else.

[porsche]

Good Points

On both sides but I have to side with Frank O3. Vegas is after the juice. Why else would they dump some of the bets when they get overloaded?

GL to everybody today.

[wizardofoddz]

porsche

Do you really think Vegas dumps bets?
Your local book may dump bets, but Vegas Sportsbooks and large off shore books keep it ALL.
I booked for 15+ years, the first 2-3 years I edged off, after that, every bet I wrote, I kept...
When a book edges off, he is gambling.....

[MemphisMafia]

Re: Gentlemen :

[QUOTE]Originally posted by MemphisMafia
[B]Read between the lines in my post , I guess we figure Joe Public to be two different people . Wanna-Bes & Joe Public are two entirely different folks in my camp , wannas are the unexperienced group I mentioned up-stairs and they float Vegas a great deal of money , Joe Public to me is the select group that has paid thier dues and dont make the mistake the rookies do and play a book fairly close to the vest . They are the ones I mentioned that will go at worst 50-50 and have runs that will break the local books (which I have seen many times) .

My husband would have to seek-out new books on a regular basis because they refused to play with him , and that still goes on today with a select few . I myself use my several out of state locals because of conflicts over this issue and employ ( meaning help ) many who help me to get this done and even they refuse action sometimes .

Kids will lose thier candy , cappers will lose thier juice

G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

I have listened to many of the points here , and none have addressed my " point of contention " here .

Books Do Go Broke ...... granted not very often and few and far between but it goes to hang on my outlook of wanna-bes & cappers ( or Joe Public ) . The betting masses (wanna-bes) are a far cry from what I call Joe Q Public , they just want action and to be able to tell thier friends that they where on the right side to gloat and swell up in the chest .

Hung_Like_A_Grizzly put it aptly when he made refference to the difference between these two , and there are light-years between being a gambler (John Q) and a casual money slinger which is the " only reason books thrive " in my opinion .

I would propose that if John Q ( about .010 % ) where the only ones gambling ........ books wouldnt exist ! And go even further to say that John Q would never have the fade play if he where the only ones playing (they wouldnt exist) . And that was my purpose for this whole thread , to say that a " A Real gambler never fades a Real gambler " .

I guess that since no one responded to the above quote , and it was intended to show cause for my thread and why I am positive of that a fader of a true gambler will not be around for very long . Then I go so far as to say this :

Fade me on everything I post ....... good-bye to ya , its been nice and I will see you in the soup line soon . This was not intended to be a head-enlarging statement "not at all " just that over the years my application and percentages will speak-up for themselves and if you fade a real everyday gambler you are destined to lose in the long-run ( maybe in a week if you go large ) .

I can clearly see that there is a total difference between what is considered the masses and a John Q in my mind and I will leave you all to your thoughts on this subject . Wiz , my biggest sting of the night (besides the NBA and the Texas over) was that games under also and I never once even considered looking at the masses for a fade ...... not for a moment . Not that it makes it right or wrong , just that my style does not allow for such actions.

Love Ya All :

G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[krunch]

Top 5 Plays over at *********.com

In regards to everyone's discussions on fading the public! These are the top 5 consensus picks over at *********. Just out of curiosity lets see how they do! Detroit NHL, Minnesota NBA, Texas MLB, Cubs MLB, and Detroit MLB.

Krunch
:confused:

[frankb03]

Four favorites with one dog, Texas.

[wizardofoddz]

krunch

Your fading picks, there is no money involved there.********* is a bunch of people picking games out of there ass. No one really cares if they win or lose.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Hey MM, I don't like calling the Experience player Joe Public. You can call em like you see them but I dont agree with your two classifications. You have knowledgeable players and Joe public who has very little knowledge other than there are two teams playing, oh an one team is better than the other.

Krunch save yourself the time.

Here is there record for this year

ATS Picks 71-53-0 57.26% -6450

Here is there record for last year

ATS Picks 882-597-1 59.63% -29925

As you can see in bases you can have a good year but when you play all the favorites your going to lose in the long run!

Hey Wiz you must be having a month like me

Just holding on for the next wave to come along.

have a good one.

BB